National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Spring 2010 - COPC Meeting

Louis W. UccelliniNCEP Director

Silver Spring, MDMay 4, 2010

2

Overview

Define NCEP

Model Production Suite -- Forces for Change

-- Example of Multimodel Ensemble for Global Predictions

Continued Interactions with DoD -- Navy Contributions to NAEFS

-- AF Backup; Model Utilization

FY10-11 Model Update

Building Update

Summary

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Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

NCEP Mission and Vision

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operation

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

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• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed • TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and

Analysis Branch

Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

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NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea”

- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual• El Nino – La Nina Forecast• Weather Forecasts to Day 7• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings• Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Hurricane Models*

Global Forecast System

North American Mesoscale Model

Rapid Update Cycle for AviationDispersion Models for DHS

-GFDL -WRF

NCEP Model Perspective

Ma

ritim

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arit

ime

Ma

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Life

& P

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Pro

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Pro

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Sp

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Hyd

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Fire

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Avi

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Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs*

* Potential ensemble candidates

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Satellites99.9%

Regional NAM WRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

ClimateCFS

1.7B Obs/Day

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

NOAA Model Production Suite

MOM3

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansRTOFS/HYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

JUL JANJUL JANJUL JANJUL JANJULJANJUL JANJUL JANJUL JANJUL JAN

Nu

mb

er

of

Hits

(M

illio

ns)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Computing Capability

• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete– Declared operational

August 12, 2009– 69.7 trillion calculations/sec– Factor of 4 increase over the

IBM Power5 – 4,992 processors– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space– 1.7 billion observations/day– 27.8 Million model fields/day

• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD• Backup: Fairmont, WV

– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes

• Models made available to all NWS forecasters, media, private sector, public

Web Access to NCEP Models by Month

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

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NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Advances RelatedTo USWRP

Major Upgrades in Global andHurricane Numerical models

2003-2009trend line

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• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System

• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface radiance data

• All models run within ESMF– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales

• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems

applications• NUOPC

– Incorporating FNMOC ensembles into NAEFS as initial capability for NUOPC (FNMOC/TOC/EMC/NCO)

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Forces for Change

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

ESMF-based System

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Multi Model Ensemble: Opportunity to Interact with the Navy through North American Ensemble

Forecast System (NAEFS)

• Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service– Elements:

• Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) • Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products

from an arbitrary number of forecast systems• Establish operational data transfer• Application to operational products with shared software• Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy

• Global ensemble products– NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

• operational in NAEFS• 20 members -16 days

– CMC• operational in NAEFS• 20 members - 16 days

– FNMOC• experimental in NAEFS• 16 members – 10 days

April 7-8, 2010 CSAB Spring 2010

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Raw NCEP

NAEFS + FNMOCStat. corr.

NAEFS

Combined NCEP – CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d)

Addition of FNMOC to NAEFS leads to modest improvement (6.7d)

Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d)

Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d)

0.5 CRPS skill

Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 4 of 4)

Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS 2m Temperature

X

April 7-8, 2010 CSAB Spring 2010

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• Backup – AWC, SPC by 15th Operational Weather Squadron at Scott Air Force Base– SWPC by 2nd Weather Group at Offutt Air Force Base

• Test Beds– Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (ongoing)– WRF DTC (ongoing)– JCSDA (ongoing)

• Col. Mark Zettlemoyer, chair of Management Oversight Board• COPC CONOPS

– Shared processing; NCEP providing direct support to AF through GFS and for NA sector through WRF

• Model Development: Land Surface Model (NOAH)• Support for Hurricane and Winter reconnaissance missions, used directly

in Global Forecast System• NUOPC – Tri-agency partnership to address common operational global

NWP needs for next generation model system

NCEP’s Interaction with the Air Force

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FY10 Model Implementations

SREF- Increase resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to 32 km- Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America; statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km RTMA

HWRF-Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade -Code corrections, data assimilation, surface heat and momentum exchange and gravity wave drag upgrades

GFS/GSI- Post consolidation- GFS code restructuring- New data types added to GSI

RUC (early FY11)-Change to Rapid Refresh

GEFS- Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme

RTOFS:HYCOM-Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes

Global Multi-Grid Wave Model -Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output

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FY10 Model Implementations

GFS- Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package

RTMA - CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km- Shift AK RTMA Grid- Guam coverage

AQM- Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI and Alaska- CONUS dust &/or smoke

HYSPLIT-CONUS dust

HI-Res Window- Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI

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FY10 Model Implementations

Surface to 20K ft Initial time 18Z April 20, 2010

24 hr

36 hr

48 hr

HYSPLITVolcanic Ash

Hurricane Wave Model (early FY11)-Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model

Wave Ensemble (early FY11)- Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models- Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days

NAEFS (early FY11)- Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles- Downscaling for Alaska

RUC (early FY11)-Change to Rapid Refresh

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FY11 Model Implementations

Composite Reflectivity April 24, 2010 Severe Weather

Outbreak in MS

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Building Update

• NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction– Five NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, HPC, OPC, CPC)– NESDIS Research and Satellite Services– OAR Air Resources Laboratory– 40 Spaces for visiting scientists

• Approximately 270,000 ft2 • Includes space for over 800• employees/contractors/visiting

– Five NCEP Centers– NESDIS research and satellite services– OAR Air Resources Laboratory

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Building Update

• Construction halted (Dec 08)• Developer files federal • suit and goes bankrupt (Jul 08)• Leaser identified (Fall 09)• Awaiting resolution of federal suit (May-Jun 10)

• Continues to have major implications for achieving Strategic Goals and UCAR review recommendations

Construction Restart

Jul 10?

Move Start Jul 11?

Move Complete Dec 11?

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Summary

• NCEP sustaining a collaborative approach to improving all forecast components from models to service centers.

• Depends on partnerships (COPC, Testbeds, private sector,…)– WRF; DTC; JCSDA; NUOPC…– ConOps– Backups– Communications and data sharing

• Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist– JCSDA; NUOPC; Ocean model transfer (global HYCOM)

• Priority Items:– Model implementations on new Power 6– Tracking situation with new building– Tracking model performance: drop out team

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Appendix

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Current

SR

EF

HUR

GD

AS

GF

S analysis

NA

M a

na

lysis

CFS

RTOFS

FIRE

Air Quality

RD

AS

GENS/NAEFS

GFSNAM

Rapid Refresh

Data Processing

Waves

NCEP Production Suite

1 2 3 4 5 6

100 %

Hours

Percentageof Capacity

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NCEP Production Suite

Next Generation PrototypePhase 4

CFSMFS

WAV

CFS & MFS

GENS/NAEFSGFS

HURSREF

Reforecast

Hydro / NIDIS/FF

NAM

GDAS

RDAS

RTOFS RTOFSAir QualityAir Quality

RDAS RDASRDAS RDAS

GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS

100 %

Percentageof Capacity

1 2 3 4 5 6Hours

Rapid Refresh

CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1979 1989 1999 2009

YEAR

An

om

aly

Co

rre

lati

on

NH GFS

SH GFS

NH CDAS/R1

SH CDAS/R1 RecordValues

28

29

30

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Attribute Operational Configuration Q1FY11 Configuration

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels

Humidity based clouds

100 km/64 levels

Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation

Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking

Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model

GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6)

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

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FY2010 Implementations

Change Planned Actual

SREF-Increase resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to 32 km

- Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America; statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km RTMA

10/27/09

HWRF- Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade 11/24/09

GFS/GSI- Post consolidation- GFS code restructuring- New data types added to GSI

12/15/09

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FY2010 Implementations

Change Planned Actual

RTOFS- Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes

11/03/09 4/20/10

GEFS- Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme

2008 2/23/10

RUC- Extend forecast 18H; provide output every hour of forecast period

3/2/10 3/2/10

NAEFS- Downscaling for Alaska 2nd Qtr FY10

FY11

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FY2010 Implementations

Change Planned Actual

Global Multi-Grid Wave Model- Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output

5/11/105/11/10

Hurricane Wave Model- Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model

4nd Qtr FY10

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FY2010 Implementations

Change Planned Actual

GFS- Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package

6/22/10

HWRF- Couple with POM 6/22/10

NAEFS- Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles 1st Qtr FY11

RUC - Change to Rapid Refresh FY11

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FY2010 Implementations

Change Planned Actual

RTMA- CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km- Shift AK RTMA Grid

4th Qtr FY104th Qtr FY10

AQM- Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI- CONUS dust &/or smoke

4th Qtr FY104th Qtr FY10

HYSPLIT- CONUS dust

4th Qtr FY10

Wave Ensemble- Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models- Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days

3rd Qtr FY10

HI-Res Window- Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI

4th Qtr FY10