National Air and Space Intelligence Center This Briefing is: Analysis/Production Strategy Curtis Rowland Chief Scientist

National Air and Space Intelligence Center

This Briefing is:

Analysis/Production Strategy

Curtis RowlandChief Scientist

Integrated Strategic Analysis

Ad Hoc

Research & Analysis

(BOK)

StrategicAnalysis

Ad Hoc

Research & Analysis

(BOK)

Today: Large % of Analytic Effort Devoted to Ad Hoc

Tomorrow’s Goal: Restore Analytic Balance

How Do We Restore Balance?

Current EnvironmentAnalytic Bandwidth

Current EnvironmentProduct Centric – Static

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Cu

stom

ers

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Knowledge Creation

Knowledge Capture

Products

ADHOCResponses

Strategic Research & Analysis Plans (SRAPs)

NASIC SMEs

SRAPs• Great First Step – Change the Culture• Challenges

• Top Down• Another #1 Priority – No Offset

• Focus on Products/ADHOCs (Never “No”)• Instantaneous Customer Satisfaction• Impacts Broader/Lasting Contribution

Program of Analysis (POA)- “Analytical Budget”

Cu

stom

ers

StrategicGuidance NASIC SMEs

Ad hoc

Ad

hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad hoc

Ad

ho

c

Future EnvironmentKnowledge Centric - Dynamic

Intel Gaps

PR

sP

Rs

Knowledge Creation

Knowledge Capture (Wall)

ADHOCResponses

Products

POA• Bottom Up meets Top Down

• Analyst/Customer/IC Leadership• Dynamic/Living

• Bounce new requirements against• #1 Priority – Produce Predictive Intel

• Align with Customer Priorities

• Focus on Creating/Capturing Knowledge • Long-term Customer Satisfaction• Can impact requests for “services”

5UNCLASSIFIED

Knowledge “Wall”Products - Static

6UNCLASSIFIED

Knowledge “Wall”Digital/Online - Dynamic

1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0

1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

• Capture what we know - Body of Knowledge (BoK) • Threat system, force, region, facility or person

• Analyst’s job #1 is to create knowledge “bricks”• Bricks

• Written to stand alone (different writing style/paradigm)• Can be reused in any other area where applicable• Are further developed by the results from KIQ analysis

• Strengthen existing bricks – develop missing bricks

• Wall• Additional text up front/at the end (mortar) provides the

context or connection to rest of the content• Content is interconnected across the wall

UNCLASSIFIED


8UNCLASSIFIED


1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0

1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

Reuse Brick in other areasLink content between BricksLeverage POA to fill knowledge gaps

KIQs

• System Name• Country of Origin• Executive Summary• Background• Characteristics

• Configuration (External Physical Properties)• Capabilities/Vulnerabilities

• Subsystems• Deployment• Mission, Roles and Employment• Denial and Deception

• Performance• Mission Parameters• Effectiveness• Limitations

Knowledge “Wall”Weapons

Guidance & Control• Inertial System• Radar Seeker• Flight Controls

• Accelerometer Technology

• Event Data Multi-INT

• Signatures• RDT&E Processes/Infrastructure

• Facilities/People• Technology Transfer• IOC (Initial Operational Capability) Date

• Proliferation Activity• Sustainment• Associated Systems• Human Interface (Human Factors)• Threat to US Interests (Personnel/Property/ Systems)

Knowledge “Wall”Weapons

SINGLE SOURCE

ALL SOURCE

AIR/AIR DEFENSE/CYBER/SPACE/MISSILES/FORCES

Knowledge Creation

AIR/AIR DEFENSE/CYBER/SPACE/MISSILES/FORCES

OBSERVE PREDICTASSESS

MODEL

Knowledge Creation

Observe & Assess Events/Activities • What happened• When/Where event took place• Differences from previous events

Assess - Predict Weapon/Force Capabilities• How/Why “it” performed in manner observed• Predict maximum capabilities• Predict potential vulnerabilities

Predictive Engineering Assessments

Modeling and Simulation

Observe Events/Activities • What happened• When/Where event took place• Differences from previous events


MODEL


MODEL

Multi-INT Integration

Multi-Event Integration


MODEL

Knowledge Creation







MODEL


MODEL




MODEL

Activity Based Intelligence• Enhance Persistence• Automate extraction of data•Multi-INT in common environment• Analytical applications to detect:

• Anomalies• Patterns of Life (PoL)• Unknowns

Knowledge Creation

Activity Based Intelligence

• Advanced Analytics Cell (AAC)• Conduct integrated analysis by utilizing:

• Emerging techniques/technologies• Human-machine teaming

• Transition capabilities to other elements• Partner with analysts/AFRL/DARPA/IC

• DARPA’s Insight Program• Provides a Multi-INT fusion capability• Correlate disparate data sets into common

analyst environment• Key elements: Automation/advanced tools• Embed DARPA personnel in AAC

• Focus on TBMs

• Silversword (framework)/Darkstar (tool)• ABI for Space







MODEL


MODEL




MODEL

Integrated Force Analysis• Growth Area – Requirements & Priority• Does NASIC have the proper resources, tools

and organizational structure to respond?• Establishing a team to study and provide

recommendations to senior leadership

Knowledge Creation

Static

Product

Reactive

Single INT/All Source

Final Thoughts

Dynamic

Knowledge

Proactive

Observe/Assess/Model/Predict

18

Questions?

Documents

National Air and Space Intelligence Center This Briefing is: Analysis/Production Strategy Curtis Rowland Chief Scientist