Early Warning Unit, CCDM 1

National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2012 summer season

Statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management 01 DAFF 2012

02 October 2012

In the light of the seasonal outlook as produced by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and other centres, the following advisory guidelines are suggested. It is emphasized that these advisories are broad guidelines and should be interpreted considering the local aspects of the region such as soil types, cultural preferences and farming systems. Depending on the particular region, the prioritization of the guidelines will differ. The basic strategy to follow would be to minimize and diversify risk, optimize soil water availability and to manage the renewable resources (rain water and grazing) to uphold sound farming objectives. Long-term mitigation strategies should be considered by implementing techniques to enhance in-field water harvesting by reducing run-off and improving infiltration. Reduced tillage methods are very important in this regard, as is basin tillage, to capture rainwater in the drier areas. The provinces should further simplify, downscale and package the information according to their language preference and if possible use local radio stations and farmers’ days in disseminating the information.

I. CURRENT CONDITIONS

Figure 1 Figure 2

Figure 3 Figure 4

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Central and southern regions of the country received normal to above normal rainfall during July (Figure 1), but elsewhere it was below normal. Normal to above normal rainfall was recorded during August (Figure 2) in coastal provinces, meanwhile the remainder of the country measured below normal rainfall. The first 10 days of September (Figure 3) received first summer rain which was above normal in summer rainfall areas, but below normal over the western parts. July and August combined (Figure 4) depict above normal rainfall in coastal provinces while the interior remains dry. NDVI difference map for August 2012 compared long-term mean

Widespread above- average rainfall during April to July over the western interior as well as the winter rainfall area is having a positive effect on vegetation activity compared to the long-term average over these areas.

II. CONDITIONS IN THE PROVINCES DURING AUGUST 2012

Eastern Cape Normal rainfall was received in some areas, while other areas along the coast received above normal rainfall. Very cold conditions resulted to snowfalls in places such as Cacadu, Chris Hani, Joe Gqabi and parts of Alfred Nzo Districts that led to mortalities of livestock. Grasses and thorn trees showed good signs of re-growth marking the arrival of spring season. Land preparation is underway for the summer season. Natural grazing veld and livestock are in good condition. Crop residues (maize) are also reportedly good and provide supplementary feed. However communal farmers lost large numbers of lambs due to overgrazing that resulted in feed shortages. There were reports of isolated veld fire incidents and of predator attacks on sheep. The average level of dams decreased slightly to 82% in 2012, as compared to 87% of 2011 during the same period. Free State Below normal rainfall was received. The veld condition has deteriorated especially in the central and southern parts. Livestock condition is fair. Heavy snowfalls were reported in the eastern parts

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while the central and southern parts reported light snow. Severe thunderstorms which caused damages to infrastructure were reported in Deneysville, Orangeville, Kestell and Bethlehem. Large areas were burnt by veld fires. Farmers are preparing the soil for summer crops. The level of dams has decreased compared to the previous year (88% in 2012; 98% in 2011).

Gauteng The province experienced below normal rainfall. Veld remains poor which influenced growth, palatability and acceptability to livestock. Animal conditions are also poor in all areas due to poor grazing and unavailability of quality fodder. Veld damage due to veldfires was reported in some areas. The level of dams decreased (89%) as compared to last year (99%) during the same period. KwaZulu-Natal Below normal rainfall was received over most parts with above average heat units in the north western parts of the province. Winter wheat has been planted in UThukela however the total area is down due to Eskom price hike. Farmers in UMkhanyakude are planting groundnut. As a result of August and September rains, farmers in the drought stricken areas are doing land preparation ahead of planting. The level of dams has decreased compared to previous year (70% in 2012; 83% in 2011).

Limpopo The entire province experienced below normal rainfall. Dry condition led to deterioration of grazing land which resulted in very poor livestock conditions. Furthermore, the province experienced shortage of water for livestock. Sporadic veldfires caused extensive damage on grazing land and fruit crops. There were also incidents of livestock mortalities due to the fires in Sekhukhune; Vhembe, Mopani, Capricorn and Waterberg districts were also affected. The average level of dams was at 69% in 2012, as compared to 83% of 2011 during the same period. Mpumalanga Below normal rainfall was received. Livestock is generally in poor condition due to poor grazing as a result of veld fires and due to the grazing being mixed veld. Mortalities of livestock were reported in parts of Nkangala District due to a cold spell accompanied by rainfall during early September. The level of dams was at 79% in 2012 as compared to 95% in 2011 during the same period. Northern Cape The province received below normal rainfall but above normal in winter rainfall areas. The veld and livestock are in reasonable to good condition. Increasing vegetation activity over the western and southern parts, except for the north-western parts is in very good condition due to above normal rainfall during autumn and winter. In some parts of the province veld was damaged by runaway fires. The level of dams is lower as compared to the previous year during the same period (88% in 2012; 98% in 2011). North West The entire province experienced below normal rainfall. Generally veld and livestock conditions are poor. Crop yields are much lower as compared to the previous season. In some parts of the province damages caused by veldfires were reported. The level of dams decreased (76%) as compared to last year (93%) this time.

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Western Cape The province received above normal rains especially in the central and eastern regions, while the West Coast experienced normal rainfall in the southern parts and below normal rainfall in the north. Drought conditions are still prevailing in the Central Karoo, where there is also livestock mortality as a result of attacks by predators. Drought conditions were also reported in the Bitterfontein and Kliprant areas. Low pathogenic avian influenza of the H7 type was confirmed on a few ostrich farms in the Oudtshoorn area. The level of dams was at 88% in 2012 as compared to 100% of 2011 during the same period. III. AGRICULTURAL MARKETS

Major grain commodities According to FNB Agri-Weekly both yellow and white maize prices lost gains. Wheat prices showed some gains. Prices are expected to move sideways but with some upward potential on renewed Rand weakness. Oilseeds traded mixed with soybeans falling under pressure. It is expected that prices will trade at current levels in the short term, but with further upward potential for the medium term.

Domestic prices per Safex (R/t)

Futures prices as at (2012/09/21)

Commodity 2012/12 2013/03 2013/05 2013/07 2013/09

White maize R2392.00/t R2401.00/t R2178.00/t R2170.00/t R2330.00/t

Yellow maize R2380.00/t R2384.00/t R2181.00/t R2150.00/t N/a

Wheat R3518.00/t R3600.00/t N/a R3639.00/t N/a

Sunflower R6225.00/t R5885.00/t R5065.00/t N/a N/a

Soybeans R5625.00/t R5190.00/t R4570.00/t N/a N/a

Sorghum R3040.00/t N/a N/a N/a N/a

SAGIS Weekly Bulletin: 2012/09/26 Livestock domestic markets According to FNB domestic beef prices retained the uptrend on the back of tight supplies on markets. Prices were up across most categories. The lamb and mutton markets extended recent losses as demand fell towards midmonth. Prices were down across most categories with mutton in particular falling sharply. It is expected that prices will trade sideways in the short term with further upward potential in the medium term due to seasonal increase demand. The pork and bacorner prices showed some gains and it is expected that prices will trade firmer with some upward potential due to moderation in supplies. The broiler market prices remained firmer cross most markets.

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Producer prices for selected livestock commodities

Beef

Mutton

Pork

Poultry

Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds (R/kg) 33.83 43.43 18.93 20.35

Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds

(R/kg)

26.71 36.08 17.80 17.21

Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter)

(R/kg)

33.73 45.22 17.10 16.05

Import parity price (R/kg) 24.33 26.31 17.01 13.44

Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) 17.10 23.00

FNB AgriCommodities: 2012/09/21 NB: Users are advised that these are just indicative prices therefore it is imperative that clients investigate their own individual basis value when marketing their products (livestock and grain). IV. SADC REGION The September 2012 FEWS NET report indicated that food security is stable in most parts of southern Africa following main season harvests. Across the region there is mostly minimal food insecurity conditions. However, reduced harvests in some areas affected by drought or floods and above-average cereal prices have resulted in pockets of acute food insecurity in parts of Angola, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. In these areas the lean season is expected to start early (August/September), rather than the normal start of October/November. Current regional maize demand/ supply projections suggest that the surpluses produced by the main maize producing countries of Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia are just sufficient to cover the import requirements of grain deficit countries in the region if strategic grain reserves (SGR) are replenished according to current plans. Summary of the reports Veld and livestock is generally in reasonable to poor condition but good in the Eastern Cape. Winter crops are reportedly in good condition. Veld fires were reported in Eastern Cape, Limpopo, Northern Cape, Gauteng, North West and Free State. There was livestock mortality in Limpopo as a result of the fires and in the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga due to very cold conditions. Severe thunderstorms caused damages to infrastructure in the Free State. The level of dams has decreased in all provinces, the lowest being Limpopo at 69%. Over SADC food security is stable in most areas.

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V. MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast: October 2012 - February 2013 Figure 1- Rainfall Figure 2- Maximum temperatures

Figure 3- Minimum temperatures

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How to interpret the forecast maps:

There are three sets of forecast maps: the rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures.

Each set consists of maps showing the probabilities for above-normal (left panels) and below normal (right panels) conditions to occur.

For each forecast map a probability percentage is given on a scale of 0-50% and above (the colour bars on the right hand side of each map) for the rainfall or temperatures for the season, i.e. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2012.

The forecast probabilities indicate the direction of the forecast as well as the amount of confidence in the forecast.

For further clarification using OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2012 rainfall (Figure 1) as an example: Free State Province, for the above normal category, is shaded in white (<33%). In the below normal category is shaded in light and dark orange (40-45%) and (45-50%). Comparing the two:- - above normal: <33%.

- below normal: 40-45% and 45-50%.

The below normal rainfall category has the higher percentage and is therefore favoured, but when a category is less than 45% it is considered uncertain and is therefore unusable. In such instances farmers are advised to plan their activities in accordance with weather conditions usually associated with that particular period/ season in their areas. In this example the usable category of 45-50% is valid only for the south-western Free State.

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Seasonal Forecast Overview for SOUTH AFRICA 1. ENSO Discussion ENSO conditions have been shown to be the single most determining factor in South African summer rainfall which can also be effectively forecasted. Other local ocean basins such as those from the Atlantic and Indian oceans have also shown to have very strong influences to South African rainfall, but remain very difficult to forecast for various reasons. Because of this fact, we look at ENSO forecasts to give an indication of whether the seasons ahead would be abnormally wet (La Nina) or dry (El Nino). Below are some forecasts from international and local centers: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) http://193.63.95.1/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/ Climate Prediction Center – National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CPC-NCEP) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTSea.gif International Research Institute Climate and Society (IRI) http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html Risk & Vulnerability Atlas (RAVA) http://rava.qsens.net/themes/climate_template/seasonal-forecasts/NINO34_FCAST.jpg/view

ENSO is currently in an El Nino phase and is predicted to persist in El Nino phase for the forecast period. 2. Rainfall Forecast (October 2012 to February 2013) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

October-November-December Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are expected for parts of North-West, Northern Cape and Free State. November-December-January Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are expected for most parts of South Africa. December-January-February Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are expected for most parts of South Africa. 3. Minimum Temperature Forecast (October 2012 to February 2013) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

October-November-December Enhanced probabilities for below-normal minimum temperatures are expected for parts of Limpopo, North-West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Northern Cape, Free State and Western Cape.

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November-December-January Enhanced probabilities for below-normal minimum temperatures are expected for parts of Limpopo, North-West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga Northern Cape, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal. December-January-February Enhanced probabilities for above-normal minimum temperatures are expected for parts of Northern Cape and Western Cape. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal minimum temperatures are expected for parts of Limpopo, North-West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Northern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape. 4. Maximum Temperature Forecast (October 2012 to February 2013) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

October-November-December Enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum temperatures are expected for parts of North-West, Northern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and Eastern Cape. November-December-January Enhanced probabilities for above-normal maximum temperatures expected for parts of Northern and Western Cape. December-January-February Enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum temperatures are expected for parts of North-West, Northern Cape, Free State and Western Cape. SARCOF-16 rainfall forecast

October – December 2012 January – March 2013

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Most of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the period October to December (OND) 2012. However, the south-eastern, northernmost parts of the contiguous SADC, southernmost Madagascar are expected to receive normal to below-normal total rainfall. The north-eastern parts of continental SADC and Mauritius are expected to receive above normal rains. For the period January to March (JFM) 2013, the bulk of SADC is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, the northern and the south-eastern parts of conterminous SADC region are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal time-scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to- month variations (intra-seasonal). In summation, rainfall is anticipated to be below normal towards the end of the year, extending into the New Year over most summer rainfall areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal in many areas. Farmers are advised to prioritise drought tolerant cultivars. In addition farmers are encouraged to utilize 7 day weather forecasts for short term planning. With the above forecast in mind, the following strategies are recommended: VI. SUGGESTED STRATEGIES:

A. Rain-fed crop production

Soil choice:

Choose suitable soil type. o Suitable soil and land use management practices that would control wind and

water erosion in cultivated lands are suggested.

Roughen the soil surface to enhance rain water penetration and reduce runoff.

Minimise compaction by reducing the passing of heavy machinery in the field.

Land preparation:

Avoid where possible soils with pronounced plough pans.

For sequestration of atmospheric carbon in the soil, for increased biological activity, and to better conservation of water, zero or minimum tillage is advised were possible.

Do not expand land under crop production unnecessarily.

Prioritise fallow land.

Crop choice and planting:

Choose short season, locally adapted cultivars as a precautionary measure.

Provide flexibility and diversification.

Stick to normal planting dates if appropriate and follow the weather and climate forecast regularly.

Consider staggered planting-spreading over weeks.

Do not experiment with new and unknown cultivars and also avoid unnecessary capital investments.

Always practice crop rotation.

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Consider intercropping for improved soil structure and pest/diseases control.

Planting in a controlled environment (e.g. green house) is advisable where possible. Crop management:

Adjust planting density accordingly.

Consider mulching to minimise evaporation.

Control weeds regularly.

Consider a conservative fertilizing strategy during dry conditions.

Consider organic fertilization.

Scout for pests and diseases regularly and control where necessary. B. Irrigation farming

Remove all weeds containing seeds, but keep other vegetative rests on the land because that will reduce evaporation.

Check and repair all tools and machinery e.g. leaking pipes and clogged sprinklers

Irrigate during cool conditions to avoid evapotranspiration.

Consider using drip irrigation as it saves water by allowing it to drip slowly straight to the roots.

Avoid over irrigation because that can create problems e.g. water logging and diseases.

Adhere to the water restrictions when issued.

C. Domestic and home garden water use

Conserve existing water supplies.

Eradicate weeds.

Limit water waste and losses.

Repair leaking pipes.

Re-use water and retain high quality.

Harvest water during rainy days.

Irrigate in the morning or late afternoon when it is cooler.

D. Stock farming

If the correct farming practices have been followed and stocking rates have been kept in balance with carrying capacity, animals should be in relatively good condition.

Never exceed carrying capacity of plant associations and densities – keep conservative stocking rates even during favourable climate conditions.

Provide lots of drinking points.

Enhance nutritional value of dry grazing/feed with licks: Phosphorous deficiency is a major problem. Licks should (in most cases) provide:

- Phosphorous. - Urea (to help with the break-down of dry vegetation). - Salt. - Molasses.

Deficiencies differ according to vegetation composition/soil properties/climate. Analysis of vegetation/soil samples can benefit the decision for supplement

composition.

Sell mature, marketable animals (to help prevent overstocking).

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If grazing is in danger, herd animals into pens where different animals can be segregated and fed separately.

E. Grazing (very important)

Subdivide your grazing area into camps of homogeneous units (in terms of species composition, slope, aspect, rainfall, temperature, soil and other factors) to minimise area selective grazing as well as to provide for the application of animal management and veld management practises such as resting and burning.

Determine the carrying capacity of different plant associations. Don’t exceed carrying capacity.

Calculate the stocking rate of each, and then decide the best ratios of large and small animals, and of grazers or browsers.

Provide periodic full growing-season rests (in certain grazing areas) to allow veld vigour recovery in order to maintain veld productivity at a high level as well as to maintain the vigour of the preferred species.

Do not overstock at any time to avoid overgrazing.

Eradicate invader plants.

Periodically reassess the grazing and feed available for the next few months, and start planning in advance.

Spread water points evenly. Water points should be distributed to prevent trampling of vegetation.

F. Veld fires

The provinces and farmers are advised to ensure that firebreaks are in place especially in winter rainfall areas where fuel load is high and may exacerbate the spread of fires. An owner of the land who is obliged to prepare and maintain a firebreak must ensure that, with due regard to the weather, climate, terrain and vegetation of the area, the following is taken care of in terms of installing firebreaks (Chapter 4 of National Veld and Forest Fire Act No. 101 of 1998):

It has to be wide enough and long enough to have a reasonable chance of preventing a veld fire from spreading to or from neighbouring land.

It does not cause soil erosion and

It is reasonably free of inflammable material capable of carrying a veld fire across it.

Firebreaks may be temporary or permanent.

Firebreaks should consist of fire-resistant vegetation, inflammable materials, bare ground or a combination of these.

Firebreaks must be located in such a way as to minimize risk to the resources being protected.

Erosion control measures must be installed at the firebreak.

Firebreaks can be made through the following methods:

Mineral earth firebreak: – Through ploughing, grading, other earth movement.

Use of herbicides.

Use animals to overgraze specifically to minimise fuel.

Strategic placement of burned areas; burning not to be done on days with fire hazard (windy and dry/hot).

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Plant fire resistant plants.

Plant species selected for vegetated firebreaks must be non-invasive and capable of retarding the spread of fire.

Maintaining firebreaks:

Mow, disk, or graze vegetative firebreaks to avoid a build-up of excess litter and to control weeds.

Inspect all firebreaks for woody materials.

Inspect firebreaks at least annually and rework bare ground firebreaks as necessary.

Repair erosion control measures as necessary.

Access by vehicles or people must also be controlled.

Bare ground firebreaks which are no longer needed must be stabilized i.e. – Sow grass. – Mulch.

What to do when conditions favorable for veldfire are forecast:

Prohibit fires in the open air during periods of high fire hazard and establish a fire control committee.

To control fires, an alarm system, firefighting teams, and beaters must be organized in advance and plans prepared.

Livestock should be moved out of grazing land to a safe place.

What to do during a veldfire:

Water is generally not available in sufficient quantities or at adequate pressure for the control of major fires; however, sand or other loose mineral soil material can be an effective method of control.

Tree branches can also be used to beat fire. G. Heat stress – bad for productivity (very important) Signs of heat stress:

Bunching in shade, high respiratory rates, open mouth breathing. What to do:

Offer shade.

Offer water- keep good quality water in front of animals.

Wet with sprinklers/fire hose.

Water ground.

Avoid overworking animals.

Control insects. Biting insects, such as flies can further stress out livestock and interrupt their cooling. If pastures or buildings draw insects to cattle during times of extreme heat, provide proper insecticides or considering relocating your livestock. Poultry

Provide cool, clean, quality drinking water to your poultry. Water will help keep your birds cool.

Always make sure your poultry are in a well-ventilated area in which there is nothing to obstruct the airflow.

Provide feed during the coolest part of the day.

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Supplement drinking water with electrolytes.

Reduce the number of birds kept in a house or in an area.

Avoid excessive activity during the hottest part of the day.

Rainfall was above normal in most summer rainfall areas during the first ten days of September bringing small relief in many areas but below normal rainfall is anticipated as the season progresses. Hence, farmers are advised to consider drought tolerant cultivars and should not increase the planting area unnecessarily. Also, resources should continually be conserved including water; and soil moisture conservation strategies should be maintained in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (No. 43 of 1983). Several provinces have reported veld fires, and where first summer rain was insufficient, conditions conducive for fires continues. The farming community is advised to ensure that firebreaks remain in place, and prohibit fires in open air during periods of high fire hazard. Provincial reports also indicated shortage of grazing hence; farmers are advised to keep the number of stock in balance with carrying capacity and provide additional feed and allow full recovery/regrowth of veld. The users are urged to continuously monitor, evaluate, report and attend to current Disaster Risk issues. It is very important and mandatory for farming communities to always implement disaster risk measures and maintain good farming practices. The climate advisory should be disseminated widely. Users are advised to be on the look-out and act on the extreme daily warnings as well as the advisory update next month. Information sharing groups are encouraged especially among farming communities for sustainable development. It is the responsibility of farmers to implement disaster risk measures. The Disaster Management Act (Act No. 57 of 2002) urges Provinces, individuals and farmers, to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters using early warning information. The current advisory can be accessed from the following websites: www.daff.gov.za and www.agis.agric.za. For more information contact:-

DAFF, Directorate: Climate Change and Disaster Management Private Bag X250 Pretoria 0001 Tel:012 319 7955/56; Fax: 012 319 6711 Email: MittaA@daff.gov.za

SAWS: Private Bag X097 Pretoria 0001 Tel: +27 (0) 12 367 6000 Fax: +27 (0) 12 367 6200 http://www.weathersa.co.za

ARC: Institute For Soil, Climate And Water Private Bag X79 Pretoria 0001 Tel: 012 310 2500 Fax: 012 323 1157 Email: iscwinfo@arc.agric.za, http://www.arc.agric.za

Disclaimer: The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) accepts no responsibility for any application, use or interpretation of the information contained in this

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advisory and disclaims all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from the use of this advisory. Unauthorised use, copying or dissemination hereof is strictly prohibited and may result in severe civil and criminal penalties.

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