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National Accounts Briefing
December Quarter 2014
2
Real GDP
Note: The range of market expectations was 2.2 per cent to 2.7 per cent for through-the-year growth and 0.3 per cent to 0.9 per cent for quarterly growth.
0.5
2.5
3.2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Quarterly
Per cent
Through the year
Market expectations
Per cent
20-year annual average
0.4Sep-13
1.9
3
Contributions to real GDP growth(quarterly)
Note: The sum of individual components does not add to the aggregate due to rounding.
0.5
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.6
0.7
0.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
GDP
Net Exports
Change inInventories
New PublicFinal Demand
New Business Investment
DwellingsInvestment
HouseholdConsumption
Percentage points Percentage points
4
Household consumption
0.9
2.8
3.5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Through the year
Quarterly
Per cent Per cent
20-year annual average
1.3Mar-12
5
Household saving ratio
Note: The household saving ratio is the ratio of household net saving to household net disposable income.
9.0
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Dec-84 Dec-87 Dec-90 Dec-93 Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08 Dec-11 Dec-14
Per cent Per cent
12.0Dec-08
6
Dwellings investment
2.5
8.1
2.1
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Through the year
Quarterly
Per cent Per cent
20-year annual average
7
New business investment
-0.7-4.4
7.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Per centPer cent
Through the year
Quarterly
20-year annual average
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
$billion $billion
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
$billion $billion
Capital expenditureMining Non-mining
Note: Estimates of CAPEX have been adjusted using long run realisation ratios. Realisation ratios (actual expenditure divided by the expected expenditure) adjust expectations for historical realisation patterns. Source: ABS Cat. No. 5625.0.
9
Business conditions and confidence
Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Net balanceNet balance
Confidence
Conditions
10
Export volumes
1.0
7.2
4.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Through the year
Quarterly
Per cent Per cent
20-year annual average
11
Import volumes
-2.5-2.6
6.5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Through the year
Quarterly
Per cent Per cent
20-year annual average
12
Nominal GDP
0.61.7
6.1
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Quarterly
Per cent
Through the year
Per cent
20-year annual average
13
Terms of trade and import/export prices
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14
Index (2012-13=100)
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14
Export prices
Import prices
Index (Dec-04=100)
14
Real gross domestic income
0.20.1
3.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Per cent Per cent
Through the year
Quarterly
20-year annual average
National Accounts Briefing
December Quarter 2014
