Engaging the Next Billion

Nathan Eagle

Jana, Inc.

Boston

Mumbai

San Francisco

Singapore

http://jana.com

2

Mobile Phone Users by Country

Mobile Ownership

3

Facebook Users by Country

4

Failures using Top-Down Data

6

Mobile Operator Data: CDR

• CDR Column Elements– Caller (Texter) / Receiver

• Hashed ID!

– Time / Duration– Cellular Towers

• Typical Data– 1 Month – 5 Years– 5% – 100% of the population

Reactions to Regional Shocks

• Spatial Dynamic Bayesian Anomaly Detection– Quantify tower-level behavioral priors

N. Eagle and E. Horvitz. (2009).‘Spatial Dynamic Bayesian Anomaly Detection for Real-Time Disease Detection’, AAAI.

Failures using Bottom-Up Data

SMS Blood Bank

• Real-time monitoring of blood supplies at local district hospitals in Eastern Kenya

Lessons

• In emerging markets, phone subscriptions are pre-paid– No contract– Free to receive incoming

calls, texts, etc.– Constantly adding small

amounts of airtime from kiosks

Small amounts of airtime =

electronic cash USIn

dia

Indo

nesia

Brazil

Colom

bia0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Post-paidPre-paid

Prepaid Dominance

12

Global Survey Partners

By integrating into the systems of 232 mobile operators, Jana can reward 2.1 billion consumers across the world.

13

Mobile Survey Lessons

• Financial incentives required to offset usage costs• Great source of people• Solid pre-qualification platform• Basic data collection platform

– Need to limit to 5-10 questions– Questions ideally “multiple choice” style– Cannot think in terms of smart-phones / large screens / touch

screens

• Possibly a way to drive people to better interface?– Full browser Internet, focus groups, phone interview, face-to-

face, etc.

14

Multiple Survey Channels

SMS

Structured data Longer surveys

Mobile Web Web / Facebook

UCMP

Structured data Longer surveys

Penetration – 5 billion handsets

Penetration – 5 billion handsets

Speed – open session No cost to end-user

15

Self-Serve Platform: What Would You Do with $15?

“Buy perfume”

“Pay my school fees”

“I’d give it to the needy”

“Pay dowry”

“Give it to my mosque”

“I’d put it in the bank”

“Buy a domain name for my website”

N = BILLIONS…

nathan@jana.com

eagle@hsph.harvard.eduJana

http://jana.com

Engineering Social Systems

http://hsph.harvard.edu/ess

Explosive Facebook Growth

Facebook: India (#3)

20

Users: 41 Million

6-Month Growth Rate: 33%

Penetration of Online Population: 51%

Facebook: Russia (#29)

21

Users: 5 Million

6-Month Growth Rate: 8%

Penetration of Online Population: 9%

Facebook: Philippines (#8)

22

Users: 27 Million

6-Month Growth Rate: 6%

Penetration of Online Population: 91%

Facebook: Vietnam (#41)

23

Users: 4 Million

6-Month Growth Rate: 25%

Penetration of Online Population: 15%

04/08/202324PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

What laundry detergents are

favored in Brazil, India &

China?

IP

IP

IP

IP

Fastest Growing Economies

Top 10 countries by GDP per capita growth (% YoY) 2010 – 2050

Note: Average annual growth rates of GDP per capita (% YoY) measured in 2010 PPP USD

Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis

PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

World GDP 2010 - 2050

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; Citi Investment Research and Analysis

2010 2050

PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

Middle Class Consumption

Source: EU EEA

PROPRIETARY & CONFIDENTIAL

Top 10 Largest Economies

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; Citi Investment Research and Analysis (trillion 2010 PPP USD)

29

The Gateway to the Emerging Market Consumer

How can I deploy targeted

coupons?Is my product available on store

shelves?

How do we promote group buying among

rural Indian women?

How is our brand perceived?

How can I sell more cereal in the Philippines?

What do Chinese consumers think about fruit juice?

How can we incentivize consumers to try our products? How do I integrate

“social” into my marketing campaigns?

How do we raise awareness with rural consumers

How much does a kilo of rice cost in that marketplace?

Is there a way to instigate group purchasing behavior?