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NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Diversion Due to Equipment Problem
y = -5.5888x + 216.39R2 = 0.2033
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
00.5
1
1.5
2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 731.41438
Est. Annual Events 9,517
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Hazmat Spill, Fire, or Fumes
y = 0.2328x + 6.8999R2 = 0.0157
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 33.18589
Est. Annual Events 432
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Hazmat Spill, Fire, or Fumes in Cargo Compartment
y = 0.0416x + 0.3123R2 = 0.2074
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER2A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.56317
Est. Annual Events 243
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Hazmat Spill, Fire, or Fumes in Passenger Compartment
y = -0.0332x + 0.3051R2 = 0.1343
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER2B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5
-1
-0.50
0.5
1
1.5
MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.03183
Est. Annual Events 14
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Hazmat Spill, Fire, or Fumes out of Regulatory Compliance
y = -0.0027x + 0.3963R2 = 0.0007
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER2C . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.31673
Est. Annual Events 137
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Cargo Shift
y = -4.3502x + 74.769R2 = 0.7544
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER3 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 194.67268
Est. Annual Events 2,533
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Elevators
y = -2.8146x + 62.868R2 = 0.2252
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 183.92170
Est. Annual Events 2,393
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Rudder
y = 0.629x + 15.845R2 = 0.0529
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 78.47626
Est. Annual Events 1,021
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Ailerons
y = -0.2376x + 28.699R2 = 0.0035
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4C . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
0
1
2
3
4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 109.09332
Est. Annual Events 1,420
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:36 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Spoilers
y = -0.5228x + 19.583R2 = 0.0606
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4D . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 65.78677
Est. Annual Events 856
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Speedbrakes
y = 0.1213x + 6.9877R2 = 0.0031
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4E . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 30.86211
Est. Annual Events 402
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Trimtabs
y = 1.0229x + 10.678R2 = 0.0837
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4F . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
0
1
2
3
4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 67.25933
Est. Annual Events 875
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Flaps
y = 0.1783x + 14.998R2 = 0.0058
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4G . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5
0
0.51
1.5
2
2.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 64.27205
Est. Annual Events 836
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Slats
y = -0.5039x + 11.29R2 = 0.2023
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4H . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 33.06927
Est. Annual Events 430
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Uncommanded Movement of Other
y = -0.8875x + 47.724R2 = 0.0719
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER4I . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 169.59600
Est. Annual Events 2,207
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Engine or Nacelle
y = -0.2993x + 19.28R2 = 0.0147
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER5A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
11.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 69.93480
Est. Annual Events 910
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Engine or Nacelle; Electrical
y = -0.0039x + 0.0863R2 = 0.0193
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER5A1 . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.52
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.07393
Est. Annual Events 67
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Flight Deck
y = -0.1805x + 14.873R2 = 0.0072
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER5B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 55.15753
Est. Annual Events 718
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:37 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Flight Deck; Elecrical
y = -0.0453x + 0.8313R2 = 0.3708
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER5B1 . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.57665
Est. Annual Events 414
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Cargo Hold
y = 0.0872x + 4.6108R2 = 0.0153
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER5C . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 20.53539
Est. Annual Events 267
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Cargo Hold; Electrical
y = -0.0265x + 0.3579R2 = 0.1119
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER5C1 . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
0
1
2
3
4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.25054
Est. Annual Events 67
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Galley
y = -3.8877x + 70.186R2 = 0.4264
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER5D . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 187.43816
Est. Annual Events 2,439
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Galley; Electrical
y = -0.0132x + 0.3302R2 = 0.2266
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER5D1 . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
11.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.26308
Est. Annual Events 642
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Elsewhere in Pax Comp't
y = -2.9055x + 49.672R2 = 0.5889
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER5E . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 128.95604
Est. Annual Events 1,678
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Elsewhere in Pax Comp't; Electrical
y = 0.0047x + 0.1467R2 = 0.0339
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:ER5E1 . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.18195
Est. Annual Events 305
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Fire, Smoke, or Fumes; Elsewhere
y = -0.5555x + 31.622R2 = 0.1008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER5F . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 113.15708
Est. Annual Events 1,472
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Precautionary Engine Shutdown
y = 0.2316x + 23.628R2 = 0.0038
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER6 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 100.07095
Est. Annual Events 1,302
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:38 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Total Engine Failure
y = -0.0289x + 9.8841R2 = 0.0003
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:ER7 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
00.5
1
1.5
2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 38.84392
Est. Annual Events 505
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Severe Turbulence Encounter
y = -6.4671x + 274.66R2 = 0.1851
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:TU1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Possible seasonal effect?
Small transport pilots primary reporters.
Est. Average Rate 943.44144
Est. Annual Events 12,276
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Severe Turbulence Encounter in IMC
y = 0.0072x + 0.4447R2 = 0.1175
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:TU1A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.15-0.1
-0.050
0.050.1
0.150.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.48383
Est. Annual Events 5,940
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Severe Turbulence Encounter in Clear Air
y = -0.0066x + 0.5223R2 = 0.1508
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:TU1B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2-0.15
-0.1-0.05
00.05
0.10.15
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.48577
Est. Annual Events 5,963
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Wake Turbulence Encounter
y = 40.354x + 1585.6R2 = 0.3353
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:TU2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 7,311.0642
Est. Annual Events 44,985
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Lacked Good Wx Info while Airborne
y = 10.944x + 1072.4R2 = 0.0527
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:WE1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
0
0.2
0.40.6
0.8
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 4,552.1734
Est. Annual Events 59,233
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Lacked Good Wx Info while Airborne; Non-US Arpt or Ctlr
y = -0.0052x + 0.2211R2 = 0.1882
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:WE1A . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.18802
Est. Annual Events 11,137
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Lacked Good Wx Info while Airborne; Involved ATIS
y = 0.0037x + 0.1326R2 = 0.2669
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:WE1B . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.15397
Est. Annual Events 9,120
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ATC Denied Request to Circumvent Wx
y = 9.4879x + 196.65R2 = 0.0982
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:WE2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SMT MED LRG WDB
Possilbe 9/11 effect.
Trend is flat or increasing slightly.
Est. Average Rate 1,014.3096
Est. Annual Events 13,198
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:39 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ATC Denied Request to Circumvent Wx; Emergency Invoked
y = -0.0113x + 0.118R2 = 0.7864
-2.00E-02
0.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
8.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.20E-01
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W2002.SP
2002.SU
2002.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:WE2A . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Possilbe 9/11 effect?
Seasonal patterns?
Better ATC access to real-time wx information?
Est. Average Rate 0.04674
Est. Annual Events 617
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Diverted to Alternate Airfield because of Wx
y = -0.4506x + 726.22R2 = 0.0004
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:WE3 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
00.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 2,894.0810
Est. Annual Events 17,807
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Airframe Icing Affecting Performance or Control
y = 3.8308x + 87.884R2 = 0.0512
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:WE4 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 443.47420
Est. Annual Events 2,729
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Windshear or Microburst Encounter; >15 Knot Airspeed Chg
y = 23.137x + 1865.3R2 = 0.0386
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:WE5 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 8,016.5013
Est. Annual Events 49,326
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Windshear or Microburst Encounter; Windshear Maneuver
y = 0.7995x + 284.29R2 = 0.0013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:WE6 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 1,156.3655
Est. Annual Events 7,115
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Expedited Lndg or Diversion due to Pax Medical Emergency
y = 0.7002x + 123.84R2 = 0.0249
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:CP1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Stable. No obvious trend.
Est. Average Rate 512.15306
Est. Annual Events 6,664
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Expedited Lndg or Diversion due to Pax Disturbance
y = -0.4683x + 23.936R2 = 0.0678
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:CP2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Pertubation in immediate post-9/11 period.
Post-9/11 upsurge followed by a return to a roughly stable secular trend.
Est. Average Rate 84.50314
Est. Annual Events 1,100
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Pilot Left Cockpit to Deal with Pax Disturbance
y = -15.732x + 155.58R2 = 0.6359
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:CP3 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
00.5
1
1.5
2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Clear 9/11 effect with downward shift.
Still some residual events.
Seems to be associated with WDB. Oceanic flights?
Est. Average Rate 244.75146
Est. Annual Events 3,185
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:40 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Bird Strike
y = 18.014x + 889.41R2 = 0.0747
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AC1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Essentially flat trend line.
Clear seasonal cycle.
Greater rate associated with WDB may be due to greater airframe and engine cross-section.
Est. Average Rate 3,989.9850
Est. Annual Events 24,550
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Evasive Action; >500 ft Separation
y = -1.9488x + 1128.6R2 = 0.003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AC2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 4,467.6864
Est. Annual Events 27,490
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
<500 ft Separation
y = -6.9922x + 454.52R2 = 0.0884
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AC3 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 1,650.2826
Est. Annual Events 10,154
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Runway/Taxiway Excursion
y = 0.2656x + 7.5981R2 = 0.012
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 36.76689
Est. Annual Events 226
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Vehicle
y = -9.8327x + 247.13R2 = 0.4496
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.00E-01-1.00E-010.00E+001.00E-012.00E-013.00E-014.00E-015.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 752.53122
Est. Annual Events 4,630
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Vehicle on Ramp
y = 0.004x + 0.7938R2 = 0.0159
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:GE2A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.81362
Est. Annual Events 3,767
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Vehicle on Taxiway
y = 1E-04x + 0.1608R2 = 1E-05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:GE2B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.40.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.15891
Est. Annual Events 736
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Vehicle on Runway
y = 0R2 = #N/A0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:GE2C . . .
Est. Average Rate 0.00000
Est. Annual Events 0
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:41 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Landing Skid
y = 3.2293x + 246.07R2 = 0.0042
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE3 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.00E-01
-1.00E-01
0.00E+001.00E-01
2.00E-01
3.00E-01
4.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 1,061.7796
Est. Annual Events 6,533
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Rejected Takeoff
y = -11.964x + 311.27R2 = 0.6728
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE4 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 957.93831
Est. Annual Events 5,894
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Runway Edge Excursion
y = 0.7362x - 0.8316R2 = 0.1512
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE5 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
00.5
1
1.5
2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 14.34145
Est. Annual Events 88
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Runway Overrun
y = 0.0878x + 2.0559R2 = 0.008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE6 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5
-1
-0.50
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 10.33157
Est. Annual Events 64
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Runway Incursion
y = -2.7441x + 42.857R2 = 0.6249
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE7 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 105.57004
Est. Annual Events 650
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Takeoff Roll Conflict with Other Aircraft
y = -0.2642x + 229.1R2 = 1E-04
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE8 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 910.06556
Est. Annual Events 5,600
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Landing Conflict with Other Aircraft
y = -6.8841x + 209.77R2 = 0.0536
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE9 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 673.87590
Est. Annual Events 4,146
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Aircraft
y = -6.4274x + 102.23R2 = 0.7391
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:GE10 . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.40.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Impressive decrease in rates over time.
The scope of this question includes ground conflicts between aircraft on ramps, taxiways and runways, each of which seems to have a distinct trend.
Est. Average Rate 254.67971
Est. Annual Events 1,567
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Aircraft on Ramp
y = -0.002x + 0.292R2 = 0.0048
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:GE10A . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
The trend of aircraft conflicts on ramps appear to be relatively flat.
Est. Average Rate 0.28469
Est. Annual Events 446
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:42 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Aircraft on Taxiway
y = 0.0055x + 0.6268R2 = 0.0285
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:GE10B . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.25-0.2
-0.15-0.1
-0.050
0.050.1
SMT MED LRG WDB
The trend of aircraft conflicts on taxiways is flat.
Est. Average Rate 0.64816
Est. Annual Events 1,016
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:43 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Ground Conflict with Aircraft on Runway
y = -0.0077x + 0.0979R2 = 0.278
0.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
8.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.20E-01
1.40E-01
1.60E-01
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:GE10C . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.00E+00
-5.00E-01
0.00E+00
5.00E-01
1.00E+00
1.50E+00
SMT MED LRG WDB
The trend associated with aircraft conflicts on the runway is decreasing sharply.
This may be a product of FAA and industry efforts to reduce runway incursions.
Est. Average Rate 0.06292
Est. Annual Events 99
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:43 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Used Reserve Fuel
y = 23.252x + 697.22R2 = 0.3881
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 3,346.9267
Est. Annual Events 20,594
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:43 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Accepted Clearance; Could Not Comply
y = -1.1195x + 160.7R2 = 0.0205
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:AH2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.5
0
0.5
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 615.93053
Est. Annual Events 8,014
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:43 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Lost Sight of Visually Separated Acft
y = -27.728x + 3270.7R2 = 0.1275
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH3 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.15-0.1
-0.050
0.050.1
0.150.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
No notable trend.
Est. Average Rate 12,417.316
Est. Annual Events 76,404
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:43 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Lost Sight of Visually Separated Acft in Marginal VMC
y = 0.0023x + 0.1448R2 = 0.0519
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AH3A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
-0.1
00.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.15801
Est. Annual Events 12,072
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:43 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Landed without Clearance
y = 1.3236x + 36.967R2 = 0.0974
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH4 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 179.63651
Est. Annual Events 1,105
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Began Takeoff Roll without Clearance
y = 1.0782x + 1.0934R2 = 0.2805
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH5 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 30.25004
Est. Annual Events 186
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Track Deviation
y = -18.19x + 547.1R2 = 0.4396
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH6 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.15-0.1
-0.050
0.050.1
0.150.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 1,751.8316
Est. Annual Events 10,779
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Tail Strike on Landing
y = 1.4777x - 1.599R2 = 0.403
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH7 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 29.06988
Est. Annual Events 179
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Tail Strike on Takeoff
y = -0.3286x + 8.1049R2 = 0.0903
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH8 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 24.53258
Est. Annual Events 151
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Hard Landing
y = -9.5636x + 211.8R2 = 0.4195
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH9 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 617.67603
Est. Annual Events 3,801
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Out-of-Balance Takeoff
y = 2.7394x + 28.145R2 = 0.0913
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH10 . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
00.5
1
1.5
2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Possible upward trend until winter of 2002.
US Airways Express Beech 1900 crash Jan 8, 2003.
FAA response to weight/balance issue January 2003.
Est. Average Rate 178.32379
Est. Annual Events 1,097
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Overweight Takeoff
y = -0.5619x + 62.737R2 = 0.0028
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH11 . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.52
2.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 237.46141
Est. Annual Events 1,461
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Commenced Takeoff with Improper Configuration
y = 0.1603x + 60.298R2 = 0.0009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH12 . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 245.03886
Est. Annual Events 1,508
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:44 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Unusual Attitude
y = 0.7694x + 30.64R2 = 0.0396
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:AH13 . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 141.02509
Est. Annual Events 1,835
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:45 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Stall Warning
y = -4.2x + 74.316R2 = 0.3701
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:AH14 . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
0
1
2
3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 196.46314
Est. Annual Events 2,556
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:45 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Near Airborne Collision w Terrain or Obstr'n
y = 0.6362x + 2.353R2 = 0.0858
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AH15 . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5
-1
-0.50
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 24.68180
Est. Annual Events 152
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:45 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Near Airborne Collision w Terrain or Obstr'n; ATC Warning
y = 0.0126x - 0.0351R2 = 0.1688
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2001.SP2001.SU
2002.W
2002.SU
2002.AU
2003.W2003.SP
2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AH15A . .
RELATIVE RATES
-5
0
510
15
20
25
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.04921
Est. Annual Events 9
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:45 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Near Airborne Collision w Terrain or Obstr'n; Direct Observ'n
y = -0.043x + 0.8719R2 = 0.0813
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2002.W
2002.SU
2002.AU
2003.W2003.SP
2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AH15B . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.74906
Est. Annual Events 139
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:45 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Near Airborne Collision w Terrain or Obstr'n; GPWS
y = -0.0113x + 0.2049R2 = 0.0083
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2002.W
2002.SU
2002.AU
2003.W2003.SP
2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AH15C . .
RELATIVE RATES
-5
0
5
10
15
20
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.05968
Est. Annual Events 11
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:45 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Altitude Deviation; >300 ft
y = -3.8885x + 189.23R2 = 0.2557
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight HoursLevel: 1B:AD1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
00.5
1
1.5
2
SMT MED LRG WDB
No clear evidence of trend.
Some indication of a seasonal cycle.
Est. Average Rate 663.60688
Est. Annual Events 8,635
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Altitude Deviation; >300 ft due to TCAS RA
y = -0.0021x + 0.1003R2 = 0.0251
0.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
8.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.20E-01
1.40E-01
1.60E-01
1.80E-01
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AD1A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-5.00E-01-4.00E-01-3.00E-01-2.00E-01-1.00E-010.00E+001.00E-012.00E-013.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.08840
Est. Annual Events 763
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Descent Below MSA
y = 1.9113x + 24.213R2 = 0.0678
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AD2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 142.72408
Est. Annual Events 878
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Unable Time-Critical Com with ATC
y = -35.633x + 5565.7R2 = 0.022
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AT1 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.00E-01
-1.00E-01
0.00E+001.00E-01
2.00E-01
3.00E-01
4.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 21,407.626
Est. Annual Events 131,721
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Unable Time-Critical Com with ATC; Ground
y = -0.0031x + 0.1805R2 = 0.2074
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AT1A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.16316
Est. Annual Events 21,491
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Unable Time-Critical Com with ATC; Airborne; Terminal
y = -0.0011x + 0.5429R2 = 0.0064
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AT1B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-6.00E-02
-4.00E-02
-2.00E-020.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.53239
Est. Annual Events 70,127
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Unable Time-Critical Com with ATC; Airborne; Enroute
y = 0.0069x + 0.234R2 = 0.2303
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2B:AT1C . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.27778
Est. Annual Events 36,589
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Rushed Approach Due to ATC
y = 43.981x + 6887.9R2 = 0.0391
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1B:AT2 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 28,607.185
Est. Annual Events 176,020
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:46 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Requests Received
y = -72.561x + 14710R2 = 0.0365
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU
2003.W200
3.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Rate per Million Flight LegsLevel: 1C:IC1 . . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Trend is flat.
Appears to be more common among large and WDB aircraft.
May be associated with traffic congestion at large airports with multiple runway configurations?
Est. Average Rate 57,099.677
Est. Annual Events 351,334
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Requests Declined
y = 4E-05x + 0.0649R2 = 0.0005
0.00E+00
1.00E-02
2.00E-02
3.00E-02
4.00E-02
5.00E-02
6.00E-02
7.00E-02
8.00E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2C:IC1A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.00E-01
-5.00E-02
0.00E+005.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.50E-01
2.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.06514
Est. Annual Events 22,887
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Requests Accepted
y = -4E-05x + 0.9351R2 = 0.0005
0.915
0.92
0.925
0.93
0.935
0.94
0.945
0.95
2001.SP200
1.SU2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2C:IC1A_ . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.50E-02
-1.00E-02
-5.00E-03
0.00E+00
5.00E-03
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.93486
Est. Annual Events 328,447
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by One or More Undesirable Events
y = -0.0003x + 0.0672R2 = 0.0452
0.00E+00
1.00E-02
2.00E-02
3.00E-02
4.00E-02
5.00E-02
6.00E-02
7.00E-02
8.00E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC1B+ . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
-0.1
00.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.06550
Est. Annual Events 21,514
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Unstable Approach
y = 0.0121x + 0.6372R2 = 0.0806
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_01
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.71215
Est. Annual Events 15,321
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Go-Around
y = 0.003x + 0.2035R2 = 0.0967
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_02
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.22159
Est. Annual Events 4,767
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Airborne Conflict
y = 0.0038x + 0.0369R2 = 0.0795
0.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
8.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.20E-01
1.40E-01
1.60E-01
1.80E-01
2.00E-01
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_03
RELATIVE RATES
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.05875
Est. Annual Events 1,264
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Wake Turbulence Encounter
y = 0.0065x + 0.1829R2 = 0.322
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_04
RELATIVE RATES
-6.00E-01
-4.00E-01
-2.00E-01
0.00E+00
2.00E-01
4.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.22208
Est. Annual Events 4,778
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Out-of-Limit Landing
y = 0.0015x + 0.026R2 = 0.1334
0.00E+00
1.00E-02
2.00E-02
3.00E-02
4.00E-02
5.00E-02
6.00E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_05
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3
-0.2
-0.10
0.1
0.2
0.3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.03458
Est. Annual Events 744
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:47 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Wrong Runway Landing
y = 0.0008x - 0.0024R2 = 0.4438
-0.004
-0.002
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
2001.SP200
1.SU200
1.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU2003.W
2003.SP
2003.SU200
3.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_06
RELATIVE RATES
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.00222
Est. Annual Events 48
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Landing Long or Fast
y = -0.0175x + 0.6926R2 = 0.5114
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_07
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Clear downward trend.
Est. Average Rate 0.59191
Est. Annual Events 12,734
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Landing without Clearance
y = 0.001x + 0.0018R2 = 0.333
0.00E+00
5.00E-03
1.00E-02
1.50E-02
2.00E-02
2.50E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_08
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.00774
Est. Annual Events 166
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Ground Conflict
y = -0.0006x + 0.0485R2 = 0.0173
0.00E+00
1.00E-02
2.00E-02
3.00E-02
4.00E-02
5.00E-02
6.00E-02
7.00E-02
8.00E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_09
RELATIVE RATES
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.04554
Est. Annual Events 980
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Followed by Other Undersirable Event
y = -0.0039x + 0.4125R2 = 0.0853
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC1B_10
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.38973
Est. Annual Events 8,385
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
At Least One ICAC request was received and accepted (1 or 0)
y = 0.0005x + 0.2136R2 = 0.0194
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 2C:IC1+ . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.00E-01-1.00E-010.00E+001.00E-012.00E-013.00E-014.00E-015.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.21577
Est. Annual Events 75,807
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Aircraft was FMS Equipped (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0091x + 0.7004R2 = 0.728
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC4 . . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.00E-01
-1.00E-01
0.00E+00
1.00E-01
2.00E-01
3.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.75474
Est. Annual Events 57,215
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
FMS Capable of Storing Multiple Routes (most recent ICAC)
y = -0.0048x + 0.8826R2 = 0.4946
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC4A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.50E-01-1.00E-01-5.00E-020.00E+005.00E-021.00E-011.50E-012.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.85348
Est. Annual Events 48,832
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Frequency Changes Made through FMS (most recent ICAC)
y = -0.0053x + 0.3822R2 = 0.2117
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 5C:IC4B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3
-0.2
-0.10
0.1
0.2
0.3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.35051
Est. Annual Events 17,116
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
FMS was Reprogrammed (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0015x + 0.4075R2 = 0.0697
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.4
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 5C:IC5 . . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3
-0.2
-0.10
0.1
0.2
0.3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.41616
Est. Annual Events 20,322
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:48 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Inputs Loaded Properly (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0039x + 0.9219R2 = 0.2937
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 6C:IC6A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-3.00E-02
-2.00E-02
-1.00E-02
0.00E+00
1.00E-02
2.00E-02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.94543
Est. Annual Events 19,213
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Inputs Did Not Load ProperlyMarginal RateLevel: 6C:IC6A_ . .
RELATIVE RATES
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Possible to Complete Programming in Time (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0024x + 0.8941R2 = 0.0585
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 6C:IC6B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.90823
Est. Annual Events 18,457
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Programming Cross-Checked by Other Crew (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0056x + 0.688R2 = 0.1112
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 7C:IC6C . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-6.00E-02-4.00E-02-2.00E-020.00E+002.00E-024.00E-026.00E-028.00E-02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.72260
Est. Annual Events 13,337
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Were Programming Difficulties (most recent ICAC)
y = -0.0046x + 0.1173R2 = 0.2089
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 6C:IC6D . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.08961
Est. Annual Events 1,821
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
FMS Assisted in Compling with ICAC (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0008x + 0.7487R2 = 0.0063
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 5C:IC7 . . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-4.00E-02
-2.00E-02
0.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.75308
Est. Annual Events 36,774
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Aircraft on Instrument Approach Prior to ICAC (most recent ICAC)
y = -0.0031x + 0.4499R2 = 0.1399
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC8 . . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.00E-01
-1.00E-01
0.00E+001.00E-01
2.00E-01
3.00E-01
4.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.43118
Est. Annual Events 32,686
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Changed Instrument Approach to Visual
y = 0.0027x + 0.4914R2 = 0.0495
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC8A . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.50E-01-2.00E-01-1.50E-01-1.00E-01-5.00E-020.00E+005.00E-021.00E-011.50E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.50689
Est. Annual Events 16,568
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Aircraft on Visual Approach Prior to ICAC (most recent ICAC) Marginal Rate
Level: 3C:IC8B . . .
RELATIVE RATES
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC CHANGED Visual Approach to Instrument
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC9 . . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
00.20.40.60.8
11.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate
Est. Annual Events
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Aircraft Programmed for Auto-Coupled Approach (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0002x + 0.1559R2 = 0.0012
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC10 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.15667
Est. Annual Events 11,877
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:49 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Changed Assigned Runway (most recent ICAC)
y = 0.0057x + 0.6852R2 = 0.636
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC11 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.00E-01-8.00E-02-6.00E-02-4.00E-02-2.00E-020.00E+002.00E-024.00E-02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.71924
Est. Annual Events 54,524
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Changed was from One Parallel to Another
y = -0.0012x + 0.862R2 = 0.0314
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC11A . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.85454
Est. Annual Events 46,593
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Changed Assigned Altitude (most recent ICAC)
y = -0.0017x + 0.1601R2 = 0.1279
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC12 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.15010
Est. Annual Events 11,379
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Changed Assigned Airspeed (most recent ICAC)
y = -0.0022x + 0.3308R2 = 0.2335
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.3
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC13 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.00E-01
-5.00E-02
0.00E+005.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.50E-01
2.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.31764
Est. Annual Events 24,080
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
In Response, FLC Changed NavAid Frequency
y = 0.0042x + 0.4171R2 = 0.4377
0.36
0.38
0.4
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC14A . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.44221
Est. Annual Events 33,523
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
New NavAid Identity was Confirmed
y = -0.0044x + 1.0112R2 = 0.1632
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC14A1 .
RELATIVE RATES
-3.00E-01
-2.00E-01
-1.00E-01
0.00E+00
1.00E-01
2.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.98355
Est. Annual Events 32,972
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
In Response, FLC Changed ATC Frequency
y = -0.004x + 0.2461R2 = 0.5248
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC14B . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.22227
Est. Annual Events 16,850
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
In Response, FLC Revised Approach Briefing
y = 0.0018x + 0.4971R2 = 0.0846
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.5
0.52
0.54
0.56
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC14C . .
RELATIVE RATES
-6.00E-02
-4.00E-02
-2.00E-020.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.50793
Est. Annual Events 38,505
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
In Response, FLC Changed the Aircraft Configuration
y = -0.0036x + 0.2079R2 = 0.3814
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC14D . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.1
-0.05
00.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.18664
Est. Annual Events 14,149
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:50 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
In Response, FLC Disconnected 1 or More Automatics
y = 0.0047x + 0.3577R2 = 0.2092
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC14E . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.00E-01
-5.00E-02
0.00E+00
5.00E-02
1.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.38597
Est. Annual Events 29,259
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
FLC Given Reason for ICAC
y = -0.0027x + 0.4638R2 = 0.1101
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC15 . . . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.15-0.1
-0.050
0.050.1
0.150.2
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.44784
Est. Annual Events 33,949
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Wake Turbulence Avoidance
y = -0.0016x + 0.0588R2 = 0.1595
0.00E+00
1.00E-02
2.00E-02
3.00E-02
4.00E-02
5.00E-02
6.00E-02
7.00E-02
8.00E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A1 .
RELATIVE RATES
-4.00E-01
-3.00E-01
-2.00E-01-1.00E-01
0.00E+00
1.00E-01
2.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.04912
Est. Annual Events 1,668
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Traffic Flow and Separation
y = -0.0091x + 0.8949R2 = 0.6835
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A2 .
RELATIVE RATES
-2.00E-02-1.00E-020.00E+001.00E-022.00E-023.00E-024.00E-025.00E-02
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.84216
Est. Annual Events 28,591
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Providing a Runway Favorable to Gate
y = 0.0019x + 0.1631R2 = 0.0432
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A3 .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.17450
Est. Annual Events 5,924
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Change in Active Runway
y = 0.0011x + 0.0773R2 = 0.0303
0.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
8.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.20E-01
1.40E-01
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A4 .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.08337
Est. Annual Events 2,830
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Weather or Wind Factors
y = 0.0013x + 0.0551R2 = 0.0582
0.00E+00
2.00E-02
4.00E-02
6.00E-02
8.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.20E-01
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A5 .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.4
-0.2
00.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.06227
Est. Annual Events 2,114
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Noise Abatement Factors
y = -0.0002x + 0.0084R2 = 0.0855
0.00E+00
2.00E-03
4.00E-03
6.00E-03
8.00E-03
1.00E-02
1.20E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A6 .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5
-1
-0.50
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.00686
Est. Annual Events 233
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ATC Equipment Problems
y = 0.0003x + 0.0026R2 = 0.0623
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
2001.SP200
1.SU2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A7 .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.5
-1
-0.50
0.5
1
1.5
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.00435
Est. Annual Events 148
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
Other Factors
y = 0.0002x + 0.1031R2 = 0.0031
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 4C:IC15A8 .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.4
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.10431
Est. Annual Events 3,541
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:51 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Reduced Quality of ICAC Coordination
y = -0.0028x + 0.2846R2 = 0.2426
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC16A . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.00E-01
-5.00E-02
0.00E+005.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.50E-01
2.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.26806
Est. Annual Events 20,321
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:52 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Reduced Situational Awareness
y = -0.0004x + 0.1939R2 = 0.0059
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC16B . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.00E-01
-5.00E-02
0.00E+005.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.50E-01
2.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.19130
Est. Annual Events 14,502
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:52 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Compromised Traffic Watch
y = -0.005x + 0.2807R2 = 0.6957
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU
2002.W
2002.SP200
2.SU200
2.AU2003.W
2003.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC16C . .
RELATIVE RATES
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.25039
Est. Annual Events 18,981
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:52 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
NAOMS EVENT RATE TRENDS Preliminary FindingsFor Internal Use Only
ICAC Compromised Safety In Other Way
y = -0.0004x + 0.0529R2 = 0.0381
0.00E+00
1.00E-02
2.00E-02
3.00E-02
4.00E-02
5.00E-02
6.00E-02
7.00E-02
2001.SP2001.SU
2001.AU2002.W
2002.SP2002.SU
2002.AU200
3.W2003
.SP2003.SU
2003.AU
Marginal RateLevel: 3C:IC16D . .
RELATIVE RATES
-1.50E-01-1.00E-01-5.00E-020.00E+005.00E-021.00E-011.50E-012.00E-01
SMT MED LRG WDB
Est. Average Rate 0.05071
Est. Annual Events 3,844
Printed: 4/9/2004 3:43:52 PM Data Set: 2003.07.LR
