NASA€¦ · launch time delays, transfer time fran LED to (SO, cost of insurance, satellite control operations expense, G&A expense, etc.) to establish annual profit (loss), annual

NASA Contractor Report 174979

:\Evaluation of Spacecraft Technology Programs(Effects on Communication Satellite BusinessVentures)—Volume II

Joel S. Greenburg, Carole GaelickPrinceton Synergetics, Inc.Princeton, New Jersey

Marshall KaplanSpacetech Inc.State College, Pennsylvania

Janis FishmanPrinceton Synergetics, Inc.Princeton, New Jersey

and

Charles HopkinsEcon, Inc.San Jose, California

September 1985

Prepared for theLewis Research CenterUnder Contract NAS 3-23886

NASANational Aeronautics aSpace Administration

.__ -_ .-/ ^.«juu»;i-j.u« ut 5V&CECR&IT N86-16452TECHNOLOGY PBOGJBAKS (EFFECTS ONCOMMUNICATION SATELLITE BUSINESS V E N T U R E S ) ,V O L U M E 2 Final Eeport (Princeton UnclasSynergetics, Inc.) 155 p HC A08/HF A'01_1__ G3/32 04928

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860006982 2020-06-23T12:09:46+00:00Z

SIM&RY

Conroercial organizations as well as government agencies invest inspacecraft (S/C) technology programs that are aimed at increasingthe performance of caniiunications satellites. The value of theseprograms most be measured in terras of their impacts on thefinancial performance of the business ventures that mayultimately utilize the g-imnnications satellites. An economicevaluation and planning capability has been developed and used toassess the inject of NASA en-orbit propulsion and space powerprograms on typical fixed satellite service (FSS) and directbroadcast service (DBS) connunications satellite businessventures. The developed methodology is based upon a stochasticfinancial simulation model (i.e., DCKSflT II) that allows for theexplicit and quantitative consideration of reliability andvarious market, performance and cost uncertainties. The Modeldevelopes financial performance measures, including quantitativerisk measures, that allow the impacts of the technology programsto be determined.

Typical FSS and DBS spin and three-axis stabilized spacecraftwere configured in the absence of NASA technology programs.These spacecraft were reconfigured taking into account theanticipated results of NASA specified on-orbit and space powerprograms. Nonrecurring and unit recurring costs were estiinated(using the PRICE cost model) for all of the spacecraftconfigurations and financial analyses performed of FSS and DBSbusiness ventures utilizing these spacecraft. In general, theNASA technology programs resulted in spacecraft with increasedcapability — this was taken into account in the analysis.

This report describes the developed methodology for assessing thevalue of spacecraft technology programs in terms of their inpacton the financial performance of camtmications satellite businessventures. Results of the assessment of NASA specified on-orbitand space power technology programs are presented for typical FSSand DBS business ventures. These results are extrapolated toindicate the potential market for the developed technology andthe possible implications of the programs on spacecraft importsand exports.

This report consists of two volumes. Volume 1 describes themethodology and contains the results of the analyses performedfor the on-orbit propulsion and space power technology programs.Volume 2 contains appendices describing the DOKSAT II Model anddata base and includes user and programmer documentation.

PAGE ISOf. POOR QUALITY

The reported work was performed by MB. Carole Gaelic* and Mr.Joel S. Greenberg, Princeton Synergetics, Inc., Dr. MarshallKaplan, Consultant, Mrs. Janis Fishman, Consultant, and Mr.Charles Hopkins, BOON, Inc. Mr. Greenberg directed the teamefforts and was responsible for the Methodological development;Ms. Gaelic* was responsible for data collection, narketestimation and the analysis of results; Dr. Kaplan wasresponsible for the spacecraft configuration analysis andtechnology assessment and Mr. Hopkins was responsible for thecost analysis. Mrs. Fishnan was responsible for the softwaredevelopment. This report was also authored by the aboveindividuals.

This wort was performed under the guidance of Mr. Karl Faynon,tASA Lewis Research Center. The NASA Lewis Research Centertechnical staff provided valuable assistance with respect to theconsidered technology programs. Numerous ccnmercialorganizations including RCA toericoo, Fair child, Comsat, DirectBroadcasting Satellite Corp. and GTkE provided valuableinformation with respect to the structuring of the businessscenarios that were considered in the analysis.

^•?-&-.

Princeton Synergetics, Inc

Thomas A. Fentonvice ?resident

ECON , Inc.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Volune 2

Smmary i

AcKnowledgeroents ii

Appendix A: The Dcrasat II Model Description (ACoranuru cations Satellite FinancialPlanning Model) 1

Appendix B: Donsat II Dser/Progranmer Docuuentaticn 42

Appendix C: FSS and CBS Base Case Data Bases andAssociated Profonna Income Projections,Cash Flow Projections, and Launch andSpacecraft Statistics 93

111

APPQDIX A: THE DQMSAT II MODEL DESCRIPTION(A COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE FINANCIAL PLANNING MODEL)

A.I IntrtAxrtion

Based upon discussions with the carriers, a stochastic

financial simulation model was developed by Princeton

Synergetics, Inc. for NASA's LeRC. The DOMSAT II Model allows the

impact of S/C technology programs to be evaluated for a broad

range of conwurucations satellite business ventures providing a

nultiplicity of ccnnunications services.

The DOMSAT II Model is currently operational on the IBM PC

with the input data provided via a user friendly LOTUS 123

system. The mathematical computations are perform^ in FORTRAN.

The Model has been used to assess the impact of LeRC on-orbit

propulsion and spacecraft power technology programs on both FSS

and DBS business ventures using both spin and three-axis

stabilized spacecraft. Oser and programmer documentation are

provided in Appendix B.

The methodology developed will allow a broad range of fixed

satellite services and direct broadcast coninunication satellite

business scenarios to be analyzed through the use of the DOKSAT

II financial simulation model. The Model allows a broad range of

comunications satellite business ventures to be simulated

explicitly and quantitatively taking into account uncertainty,

unreliability and resulting risk. It specifically allows for the

consideration of hybrid (i.e., C- and Ku-band) satellite

configurations. The objective is to assess the impact of NASA

spacecraft technology programs (for example, on-orbit propulsion

and power programs) upon conoercial oonnunications business

ventures by planning typical business ventures utilizing

satellites without and with the technology being considered for

development. The value of the technology programs is then

related to the changes in financial or economic performance

measures which provide insights into the likelihood that the

technology will be utilized by the business ventures.

The Model provides the means for evaluating the financial

impacts of S/C technology programs, space transportation programs

and related policies, on private sector communications satellite

business ventures. This is accomplished by reconfiguring S/C

taking into account the anticipated results of S/C technology

programs. The resulting S/C configurations are cocnunicated to

the DOKSAT II Model through specific estimates of cost,

performance and reliability. These estimates are then combined

with a business scenario (i.e., number of satellites as a

function of time, number and type of transponders, demand for

transponders by type of service provided, pricing, price

elasticity, launch system scenario as a function of tijne, likely

launch time delays, transfer time fran LED to (SO, cost of

insurance, satellite control operations expense, G&A expense,

etc.) to establish annual profit (loss), annual cash flow,

cumulative cash flow, RCA, payback period, and ROI. The

financial performance measures are all described by probability

distributions (i.e., risk profiles) since cost uncertainties

(i.e., uncertainty profiles) and subsystem reliability are

considered.

The iitpact of S/C technology programs can be assessed in

terns of the differences that result in financial performance

measures which are the result of differences in S/C performance

and cost attributes resulting f ran the S/C technology programs

and new services made possible by the technology programs. Two

analyses are necessary for assessing the financial impacts; one

analysis based upon a satellite configuration in the absence of

the S/C technology program (i.e., the base case), and a second

analysis based upon a setellite configuration incorporating the

assumed results of the S/C technology program. The difference in

the financial results is therefore assumed to be directly

attributable to the S/C technology programs.

The establishment of a business scenario consists of

specifying the following information (a typical data base used in

the analysis of a FSS business venture is presented in Appendix

B):

* number of years in the business plan

* maxinun number of operational satellites

* desired launch schedule

* possible launch delays

* time to transfer from LEO to CBO

* number of narrow-band transponder groups/satellite

* number of wide-band transponder groups/satellite

* number of transponders per narrow-band group

* number of transponders per wide-band group

* number of spare transponders per narrow-band group /

* number of spare transponders per wide-band group

* transponder reliability characteristics (mean time tofailure, expected wearout life, variability of wearoutlife)

* S/C support subsystem (up to 5) reliability characteristics

* types of connunications services provided (protected, pro-tected/preemptible, unprotected, and preemptible)

* tariffs per narrow and wide-band transponders for eachtype of communications service

* annual demand for narrow- and wide-band transponders interms of type of service

* relaunch threshold in terms of number of operationaltransponders

* annual cost of S/C operations

* annual GtA expense (fixed and variable)

* annual R&D expense (fixed and variable)

* other annual expenses (fixed and variable)

* insurance cost

* S/C cost spreading

* S/C unit recurring cost

* S/C nonrecurring cost

* S/C unit recurring cost learning rate

* launch cost

* launch scenario as a function of time (described in termsof the probability of success of each of the major stepsin the launch sequence)

* depreciation lives

* interest rates

* tax related data

* discount rates

* balance sheet related data.

Many of the above variables are considered as uncertainty

variables requiring the specification of the range of uncertainty

and the fora of uncertainty.

The Model allows uncertainty and unreliability to be

considered explicitly and quantitatively. This is absolutely

necessary when considering programs which are specifically aimed

at reducing uncertainty and altering reliability both of which

effect perceived risk and hence effect investment decisions. Tt>

establish the quantitative measures of risk, the Model utilizes

Monte Carlo techniques wherein the complete business scenario is

repeated a large number of times (typically 1000 or more) each

time randomly sampling from the uncertainty profiles and the

reliability characteristics which are specified. The results of

all the business analyses are saved and appropriate statistics

developed. Financial performance measures are summarized in

terras of expected values and standard deviations. Typical

financial reports are illustrated in Figures B.13 and B.14 with

detailed launch and S/C purchase statistics illustrated in

Figures B.15 and B.16. It should be noted that the financial

documents contain expected values except for those items which

are noted with * indicating standard deviations. The particular

form of the financial statements is the result of discussions

with several carriers.

The Model develops many financial performance measures

including annual after tax profit, annual cash flow, cumulative

cash flow, return on sales, return on assets, payback period, and

net present value. Expected values and standard deviations are

established for all of these. The net present value is

established at a number of discount rates so that the internal

rate of return (or discounted return on investment - ROD can

easily be established.

The Model consists basically of two parts. The first,

utilizing the desired schedule of events, demand for

connunications services, the satellite configuration, specified

launch scenario and reliability characteristics, establishes the

specific timing and number of events and their costs. The

availability of transponders (taking into account failures,

sparing concepts and services offered) is matched against launch

decision criteria in order to establish the schedule for

replacement launches and the timing of additional capital

expenditures for replacement satellites and launches. The timing

and cost information is then passed to the second part of the

Model which performs the financial confutations and establishes

values of the economic performance measures.

The Model is implemented such that certainty conditions can

be easily analyzed as well as the uncertainty situations. For

example, the number of desired runs is an input parameter and can/

be set to one when all ranges of uncertainty are set to zero

(i.e., minimum and oaxijiun values are set equal), mean-time—to-

failure set to very large values and expected wearout time set to

desired failure time (i.e., force replacement) — this is a

useful approach for nodel verification. A user friendly system

has been developed for entering this data into the Model. The

data is entered via LOTOS 123 and the DOMSAT II Madel is in

FORTRAN. The system has been designed for operation on the IBM

PC.

A..2 2hfi Monte Cfrrlo Qancept

The simulation of ocnmunicaticns satellite business ventures

requires the explicit consideration of uncertainty and

unreliability and resulting risk. The areas of uncertainty

include performance, market, cost, and tuning. The areas of

unreliability include both transportation system and spacecraft.

The DOMSAT II Model incorporates these uncertainties and

unreliabilities into a set of financial amputations by utilizing

Monte Carlo sinitiation techniques.

Monte Carlo implies the performance of an experiment or

simulation many tines, such as rolling two dice (either actually

or through the use of a simulation model) repeatedly to determine

the chance of seven or more occurring. In the DOKSAT II Model

the experiment consists of simulating a coraainications satellite

business venture for up to 15 years. This business is simulated

for about a thousand different situations where each of the

specific situations is developed by random sampling of a set of

probability density functions, or uncertainty profiles, and

establishing from specified randan and wearout failure

characteristics specific event timing. The specific values

obtained froo the sampling of the uncertainty profiles and the

reliability characteristics then establish the parameters of the

business venture that is simulated. Results free all of the

simulations are saved and histograms developed (or summarized by

expected values and standard deviation) of pertinent financial or

other performance measures. These histograms represent the

result of combining all of the areas of uncertainty and

transportation system and S/C reliability attributes in the

business scenario.

The Monte Carlo concept is illustrated in Figure A.1 through

the use of a simplified financial model. Basic input data to

this model consists of deterministic and probabilistic data.

Bcamples of deterministic data are the nunber of time periods to

be considered, the discount rates, and tax rates. Probabilistic

data consist of "uncertainty profiles" associated with the

variables whose values cannot be predicted or known exactly in

advance. Typical uncertainty variables are sales, selling price,

expense items and capital expenditures. Dhcertainty profiles are

subjective estimates that describe the range and form (shape) of

the uncertainty. The creation of uncertainty profiles is

discussed in following paragraphs.

NDHTE CARLO SIMULATION WOEL

/vf- • *»^

s~\y ^X^v

^m ^^fc

.*-v_^^^ \

/~^

wcERTAimrPROFILE

WIT SALES f

SELL 1*6 PRICE »»

MARKET SHARE *•

tJPEwii ITEMS ^

CAPITAL DP *-

I • TIK PERIOOR • REVENUE

US • UHIT SALESSP • SELLING PRICE

ATP - Af TEH-TAX PKOFI

FINANCIAL SIMULATIONMODEL

• • IK • <P • USR, • US, 5F, «*,

• TD • •> . Tf • DBTP, • R, It, w.

»T» . fl TR> • ITP

|

T

4W

— P- PWFIT i !l S=,.

— »— IBOfJITEtWV; ^ *x*»-

— - RATE OF ftmWfl _ - an

— *- PRESDn MORTH !^«*^fc»

RIStPROTILE

MS MARKET SHARE8TP BEFORE-TAX PROFIT

E EXPENSES0 DEPRECIATION

TR TAX RATE

ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALITY

FIGCPE A.1 PDWC1AL.PLMKIIG KDEL: KKTE CM5X) CONCEIT

These data are input to a financial simulation model that

represents the real world situation being evaluated. The

illustrated model (Figure A.1) states that revenue at a given

time, I, is equal to the product of unit sales, selling price and

market share; before-tax profit is equal to revenue less the sum

of all expense items less the depreciation expense; after-tax

profit is the before-tax profit multiplied by one minus the tax

rate.

Risk analysis is performed by the randan sampling of the

input data (according to the weighting of the uncertainty

profiles), performing computations contained within the

simulation model, saving the results, then repeating the process.

This process is repeated many times until a reasonable set of

histograms can be developed from the saved output. These

histograms are worked into the desired form to indicate the

variability of performance measures, such as profit, cash flow,

indebtedness, rate of return and net present value. The DOKSAT

II Model sumarizes the financial performance measures in terms

of expected values and standard deviations and establishes the

probability density functions of launch and S/C purchase events.

The performance measures may be displayed, as indicated, in the

form of "risk profiles" which indicates the chance of a

performance measure exceeding specific levels (i.e., the

complementary cumulative probability distribution).

At the heart of the DCMSAT II Model is a financial model

that is driven by data obtained from "event" (i.e., launch times,

S/C failures, transponder failures, etc.) computations. The

whole process, both the events and the financial computations,

are included in a Monte Carlo model. The basic structure of the

financial confutations is illustrated in simplified form in

Figure A.2. Dhit sales is multiplied by unit selling price and

the product is in turn multiplied by market share to produce

revenue. Each of these quantities may be provided in the form of

an uncertainty profile, which are then sampled randomly to

produce a value of the revenue random variable.

ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALffY

FIGURE A. 2 FDWJCIAL JLAWBC MCDEL: SIMPLIFIEDCASE FLOW OOKPUTATIGN

10

Variable cost (which may be related to unit sales) is added

to fixed cost to obtain total annual operating cost. The

variable and fixed costs may also be uncertainty variables.

Capital expenditures are specified (and may be in the form of

uncertainty variables) and depreciation is computed and added to

total operating cost to yield total expenses. Revenue less

annual expenses yields before-tax profit. This, when multiplied

by one minus the tax rate and modified by carry forward losses

and tax credits, yields after-tax profit. Annual cash flow is

obtained by adding depreciation and changes in the balance sheet

items to after-tax profit and subtracting capital expenditures.V.

A. 2 tt)Cf rtfllnty and Iftisk Prof i1«»s

Uncertainty estimates are subjective. They express

quantitatively attitudes regarding uncertainties, reflecting past

experience with similar efforts, types of problems encountered in

the past, and insights into problem areas that might develop.

Uncertainty profiles, being subjective estimates, call for expert

opinion in each area. Ordinarily, manufacturing personnel

estimate the uncertainty surrounding manufacturing cost (both

recurring and nonrecurring); market personnel estimate

uncertainty surrounding the sales forecast and marketing costs;

and so on through each category of input.

A useful and frequently used procedure for estimating the

shape of an uncertainty profile is as follows (see Figure A. 3):

[1,2]

A. Estimate the range of uncertainty — minimum andmaximum bounds (little or no chance of falling outsidethese bounds). Divide this range into a number of

ll

equal intervals — 5 hasexperimentation, to be useful.

been found, through

B. Make a relative ranking of the likelihood of thevariables falling into each of the intervals: thisestablishes the general shape of the uncertaintyprofile (e.g., skewed left, central, etc.).

C. Set relative values for the chance of falling into eachinterval. (For the Figure A.3 case, the chance offalling into interval 1 is half that of falling intointerval 2.)

D. Having assumed the probability of falling within therange is 1.0, the chance of falling in each of the fiveintervals can be sunned and set equal to unity. Thisequation can be solved (by substituting the relativevalues as obtained in paragraph C) for theprobabilities associated with each interval.

I ' '•a? toooPOOR

MOO tooo

1000 tooot)

FIOTHE A.3 FINANCIAL HANTOC JCDEL: UNCEKDONn' PROFILES

12

This can become a tedious procedure when many uncertainty

variables and/or many intervals nust be dealt with in making

assessments. To minimize this problem, many uncertainty profiles

are stored in the data base. The evaluation then need specify

only the minimm and maximum values and the name of the

applicable uncertainty profile. If the appropriate uncertainty

profile has not been stored, it can be created by the process

described above and entered into the data base.

A.3 DOMSKT II finnprt- f iflnal Procedures

Figure A.4 presents an overview of the DCKSAT II Model. The

input data provided via LOTOS 123 (see Appendix B) is read by the

DOHSAT II FORTRAN Model. The DOKSAT II Model consists of a

number of computational procedures or sections (not to be

confused with subroutines). These include:

A. A section concerned with simulating the launch sequencewhenever a launch is required as determined by desiredlaunch dates, and launch and spacecraft failures.

B. A section concerned with the determination ofspacecraft subsystem failures.

C. A section concerned with the determination oftransponder failures that takes into account operatingas well as spare transponders.

D. A section concerned with the estimation of satellitereplacement time as determined by considerations ofspecified launch criteria and number of availabletransponders (this feeds results back to the launchsequence simulation).

E. A section concerned with establishing the demand fortransponders as a function of time. As will bediscussed, the demand is disaggregated into "narrow-band* and "wide-band" transponder demand, type ofservice (four levels considered) and satellite. Whendemand exceeds supply, this section allocatestransponders according to service.

13

INPUT DATA

CF IIS/C SUHKJKT SYSTEM II FAILURES I

OF II TOANSKK5ER II PAZLDRES I

| ESTABLISHMENT GP I•I SATELLITE I

TIME I

ANALYSIS

REVENDEANALYSIS

FINANCIALANALYSIS

REPORTDC

FIGUPE A.4 DOMSAT II KDEL:

14

F. A section concerned with revenue analysis that developstotal revenue by considering number of transpondersassigned to each service, the demand and the price pertransponder.

G. A section concerned with the overall financial analysisgiven a set of events and revenue (as determined in theother sections). The financial analysis developsproforma income projections, cash flow projections, andnet present value at a number of discount rates. Anumber of financial performance measures are developedwith both expected values and standard deviationsdetermined so that risk profiles may be developed.

B. A section concerned with report generation thatincludes the proforma income statements, cash flowprojections and statistics on launch attempts andsatellite purchases.

A more detailed computational flow is illustrated in Figure A. 5.

It should be noted that even this flow chart has been grossly

simplified in order to present a general overview of the

computional process. Actually, within the computational flow

there are many levels of disaggregation and hence many

computational loops. These may be visualized by referring to

Table A.I wherein the different indices that are utilized are

identified and their functions indicated. Pertinent details of

the Model are described below with reference to Figure A.4.

Simulation of kannch Sequence

The first step in the computational procedure is the

simulation of the launch sequence which establishes the specific

timing of satellite launches. Input data establish desired

launch dates — the Model establishes actual launch dates. A

general launch scenario (based upon the Space Shuttle) as

illustrated in Figure A.6 is included in the Model. Inputs to

the launch scenario include launch delays (i.e., the range of

uncertainty associated with the timing of a rescheduled launch

TABIZ A.1 IDENTIFICATION OF INDICES UTILIZED

INDEX FUNCTION

* Monte Carlo fcm Index * Establish the nmber of simula-tion runs to be performed

* Operational Satellite Index * Multiple satellites may be con-sidered as comprising the busi-ness system

* Replacement Satellite Index * Used to keep trade of the re-placement satellites requiredfor each of the desired opera-tional satellites (i.e.,an indexwithin the operational satelliteindex)

Primary Time Index

* Secondary Tine Index

* S/C Subsystem Index

* Transponder Group Index

* Transponder Index

* Service Index

* Capital Expenditure Index

* Used to keep track of each ofthe time periods (years) of theanalysis

* Time index within the year index(each year is subdivided toallow more accurate demand andrevenue computations)

* Identifies each of the S/C sup-port subsystems that are consid-ered in the revenue analysis

* A number of transponder groups,each with their own spares maybe considered for both thenarrow- and wide-band services

* Identifies each of the trans-ponders within each group

* Identifies each of the four (4)services that may be considered

* Used to keep track of capitalexpenditures

ORIGINAL

I READ INPUT DATA I

I SET MONTE CAFLO h-I PUN DCEX |

I SIMULATE LAUNCHI SfcUUUNCL FOR EACHI DGSIFED OPEK. S/C

I ESTABLISH YEAR OFI LAUNCH

N

<D

I INCREME27T LAUNCH II SDOCESS (I) I

IINOÊMENT SATELLITE II FURO1ASES (I) I

ESTAfi. START DATEFOR INITIAL S/C

I INCREMENT LAUNCH II FAILURES (I) I

I ESTAB. START DATE |IFOR REPLACEMENT S/CI

I ESTAB. FAILUREI TIME FOR S/C BUS

I

ESTAB. LAUNCHTIME DELAY

I

<b

FIGURE A. 5 DOMSAT II MODEL: CDKR.TATIOKAL FLOW

17

IESIAB. FAILURE TIME II FOR EACH NARROW- II BAND TRANSPONDER I

lESTAB. FAILURE TIME)IFOR EACH WIDE-BAND |I TRANSPONDER |

lESTAB. ND.OF NARROWlI BAND TRANSPONDERS |I OPERATIONAL AS A II FUNCTION OF TIME I

IESTAB. NO. OF WIDE-!I BAM) TRANSPONDERS II OPERATIONAL AS A II FUNCTION OF TIME |

I DETERMINE NO. OF II EFFECTIVE TRANS- I(PONDERS OPERATIONAL I

I N

I ESTAB. DEMAND FORI NARROW-BAM) TRANS.IFOR EACH S/C & FORI EACH SERVICE ATI YEAR END

I ESTABLISH LAUNCH II DELAY I

I ESTAB. NEW LAUNCH II DATE FOR REPLACE- II KENT SATELLITE I

FIGURE A.5 DOMSAT II MODEL: COMPUTATIONAL PLOW (CONTINUED)

18

I ESTAB. DQftND FOR IIWIDE-BAND TRANS.FOR|IEACH S/C & FOR EACH IISERVICE AT YEAR DO I

IINTERPOLATE DQftND |I WITHIN EACB YEAR I

I ALLOCATE NARROW- II BAND TRANS. TO II SERVICE t REVENUE I| GENERATION I

I ALLOCATE WIDE-BAN} |I TRANS. TO SERVICE fc|IREVENUE GENERATION I

IESTAB. NARRCW-BAND II TRANS. PRICE FOR(EACH SERVICE i YEAR)

I ADJUST PRICE FORCORRELATION

I ESTAB. WIDE-BANDI TRANS. PRICE FORIEACH SERVICE & YEAR)

I ADJUST PRICE FOR ICORRELATION I

I EFFECTS I

•I

I ADJUST DDOND TO II TAKE INTO ACCOUNT I(PRICE ELASTICITIES I

FIGURE A.5 DOMSAT II KDEL: COMPUTATIONAL FLOW (CONTINUED)

I COMPUTE REVENUE BY|I SERVICE TYPE (I) |

iCOMPUTE TOTALREVENUE (I)

IESTAB VALUES OF THE FOLLOWIN5UNCERTAINTY VARIABLES THROUGH

RANDOM SAMPLING:* LAUNCH COST* INSURANCE COST* S/C RECURRING COST* S/C NONRECURRING COST* S/C OPERATIONS COST* ENGINEERING EXPENSE ($)* ENGINEERING EXPENSE (%)* R&D EXPENSE •($)* R&D EXPENSE (%)* GfcA EXPENSE ($)* GfcA EXPENSE (%)* OTHER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

ADJUST THE FOLLOWING FORCORRELATIONS/C OPERATIONS EXPENSEENGINEERING EXPENSE ($)ENGINEERING EXPENSE (I)R&D EXPENSER&D EXPENSEG&A EXPENSEGfcA EXPENSE

($)(%)($)(%)

OTHER CAPITAL EXPENOTTURES

I COMPUTE ANNUAL II LAUNCH COST (I) I

FIGURE A.5 DGMSAT II MODEL: COMPUTATIONAL PLOW (CONTINJED)

20

I COMPOTE TOTAL S/C II UNIT RECURRING GDSTJITAKDC DUO ACCOUNT!I LEARNING tt'FECTS |

I COMPUTE ANNUAL II LAUNCH COST (I) |

IESTAB AlWUAL DEPREC)JEXPQ6E FOR LAUNCH IIOD6T, LAONCB DBDR, I

fc OTHER ASSETS I

I ESTABLISH TOTAL IIAMOAL DEPRECIATION |

I ESTABLISH AWUAL*S/C CONIHX OPER-

ATIONS EXPENSE*EM3INEER. EXPEtCE*RtD EXPENSE*GiA EXPE26E

IESTAB. TOTALIOPERATIGNS EXPENSE

I ESTABLISH DEBT IISEFVICE EXPENSE (I) I

FIGUKE A.5 DOKSAT II MODEL: CCKEVIATICNAL FLOW (CCNTINUED)

21

I ESTABLISH BEFORE- II TAX PROFIT (I) |

| ESTABLISH INCOME II TAX (I) |

I ESTAB. INVESTMENT |I TAX CREDIT (I) I

I COMPUTE AFTER-TAX II PROFIT (I) |

ESTABLISH CHANGESIN BALANCE SHEETITEMS:* PAYABLES* RECEIVABLES* CASH

I ESTABLISH COST OF II PLACING A SPARE II S/C IN INVENTORY |

IPERFORM COSTSPREADING FOR:

* LAUNCH COST* INSURANCE COSTS* SATELLITE COSTS* S/C NCNRECURRUCICOST I

FIGURE A.5 DOMSAT II MODEL: COMPUTATIONAL FLOW (CONTINUED)

22

I ESTABLISH ANNUAL I(CAPITAL EXPBOnUFEl

iI ESTABLISH TOTAL II CASH INFLOW (I) |

I ESTABLISH TOTAL II CASE OTinXW (I) I

I ESTABLISH NET CASH]I FLOW (I) I

I ESTABLISH |I INDEBTEDNESS (I) I

I ESTABLISH BOCK I(VALUE OF ASSETS (I) I

I ESTABLISH TOTAL II ASSETS (I) |

I COMPUTE PETUIW ON II ASSETS i KETUIW II ON SALES (I) |

I COMPOTE NET II PRESENT VALOE I

I4.8^*

FIGUPE A.5 DOMSAT II MODEL: COMPUTATIONAL FLOW (CQNTIHJED)

23

I SAVE ALL II RESULTS I

N

I ESTABLISH AVERAGE |I VALUES 4 StMIAPD 1I DEVIATIONAS GP ALL I(NECESSARY VARIABLES I

I PRINT II RESULTS I

EtC

FIGURE A. 5 DOKSAT II MCDEL: COMPUTATIONAL FLOW (CONTINUED)

24

the before-tax profit multiplied by the tax rate. Investment tax

credits are considered for the launch costs, insurance costs,i

annual spacecraft recurring costs and other capital expenditures.

After-tax profit is the before-tax profit plus the tax credits

less the income tax. It is assumed that the business venture is

part of a larger corporation with other cash flows, profits and

losses. Therefore no carry forward losses are taken into account

since it is assigned that they are used to offset other corporate

profits.

Changes in annual receivables, payables, and cash are

established with receivables being a percentage of annual revenue

and cash and payables being percentages of annual expenses (not

including depreciation). The computation of annual cash flow

takes into accout these changes in balance sheet items, satellite

inventory and the expenditures made for assets as the

expenditures actually occur. Thus cost spreading is performed on

the annual launch, insurance, and satellite costs with the annual

capital expenditures consisting of these spread costs. It is

assumed that a spare satellite is acquired during the first year

of service and that a satellite is maintained as a spare to

ensure the availability of a satellite when needed. The

satellite is a ground spare.

Annual cash flow is computed as the sum of annual profit

(loss), changes in balance sheet items, capital expenditures and

inventory. Indebtedness is established as the negative of the

emulative annual cash flow. A positive indebtedness indicates

that cumulative cash outflows have exceeded cumulative cash

NOT F,LMEii

inflows. A negative indebtedness indicates that emulative cash

inflows have exceeded emulative cash outflows.

The present value of annual cash flows is established at up

to five different discount rates. The present value is computed

in two parts. The first comprises the present value contribution

resulting from cash flows during the detailed planning horizon of

the business venture. The second comprises the present value

contribution from the end of the planning horizon to infinity —

the infinite horizon contribution. The infinite horizon

computation assumes that the cash flow achieved in the final year

of the analysis will continue in all future tune periods.

The book value of assets is established as the capital

expenditures less the accumulated depreciation. Tbtal assets is

established as the book value of assets plus receivables, cash

and inventory. Return on assets is established as the annual

profit divided by assets and the return on sales is established

as the annual profit divided by annual sales.

Reporting

The financial and event results are surmarized in four

reports: a proforna income statement, a cash flow projection, and

statistics associated with annual launch attempts and satellite

purchases. Typical reports are presented in Appendix B. All

data presented in the proforna income statement and cash flow

projection are expected or average values with the exception of

those items indicated with an * — this implies that the values

are standard deviations. The expected values and standard

deviations are the result of utilizing the results obtained from

39

all' of the Monte Carlo runs (for exanple, the average profit in

year 10 is obtained as the sun of the profits obtained in year 10

from all of the Monte Carlo runs divided by the muter of Monte

Carlo runs).

Further insights into the computational details can be

obtained from a detailed review of the inputs and outputs

described in Appendix B.

40

A. 4 References

(1] Greenberg, J.S. , Risk Analysis, Astronaut ice/Novenber 1974.

[2] Greerberg, J.S. , and Hazel rigg, G.A., Methodology forReliability-Ooet-Risk Analysis of Satellite Networks,Journal of Spacecraft and |tocketfl. Vol. 11, No. 9.,Septenber 1974.

APPQDDC B: DCKSAT II USER / PROGRAMMER DOCUMENTATION

The Comunications Satellite Business Financial Planning

Model, DOMSAT II, is programed to operate on the IBM PC. To

utilize this Model the following hardware configuration is

required:

* IBM PC with two (2) floppy disk drives (360 K/disk DS/DD)

* 256K memory plus A.S.T. six pack plus (640K memory)

* Printer (OKIDftlA 92 P)

* Display (AMDEK 300 A)

* PERSYST Color Graphics Adapter

* 8087 Co-Processor (Hardware Math).

In addition the following software is required:

* MS-D06 2.1 (or higher) Operating System

* LOTOS 123 for the IBM PC.

DOMSAT II is written in FORTRAN for the IBM PC. The FORTRAN

code consists of a main routine and ten (10) subroutines (or

functions). The program flow and nodule descriptions are

sunraarized in Figure B.I. Two functions generally available in

libraries on large conputers were not available — randan nurber

function and an error function. These functions are coded and

included in the program.

The FORTRAN program has been compiled and confined with a

LOTOS 123 spread sheet data base on a single diskette for ease of

use. LOTUS 123 is used to prepare the input data for the DOMSAT

MAIN

CALL Subroutine SETUP

- Seed Randan Nunber

- Initialize variables to be accumulated over all runs

- Set default values

- Initialize tables of:

Launch Attempts

Spacecraft Purchases

CALL Subroutine INPUT

- Read input data

- Make up tables of failure probabilities(use function ERFC)

- Compute expected values of narrow and videusing uncertainty profiles not 0for all prices by service type(use function EV)

Start Monte Carlo Runs

Initialize variables dependent upon each Monte Carlo Run

CALL Subroutine RUNSAT

- Determine number of launch sucesses/fallures(use function RAND)

If launch failure

CALL Subroutine RDIST

Establish tin* delay for next launch

Establish new launch date

FIGURE B.I MODEL FLO* AND MCDULE DESCRIPTIONS

43

- CALL Subroutine TFAIL

Establish:

Spacecraft Bus time of failure

Narrow Band Transponder tine of failure

Wide Band Transponder tine of failure

- Establish:•

Hunter of operational narrow band transpondersas a function of tine

Hunter of operational vide band transpondersas a function of time

- Determine satellite replacement tine

- CALL Subroutine PDIST

Establish tine delay for next launch

- Establish new launch date

CALL Subroutine DEMAN)

- Establish transponder demand

CALL Subroutine OQRREL

CALL Subroutine PDIST

Generate Randan Number (use function RAM))

Sample probability distribution(use input array PPP)

Establish uncorrelated value

Establish correlated value based upon currentvalue and previous value

- Determine first year of launch over all satellites

PIGCFE B.I MODEL FLOW AND KDULE DESCRIPTIONS (CONTINUED)

44

- Establish demand within each year

- Allocate narrow band transponders to service andrevenue generation

- Allocate wide band transponders to service andrevenue generation

Establish narrow and wide band prices

CALL Subroutine CORFU,(see preceding description of CORREL) •

Adjust demand to take into account price elasticities

Confute REVENUE by service type *Confute TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUE * **

Confute: INSURANCE, S/C RECURRING, S/C NGN-RECURRING, andLAUNCH COSTS with no correlationCALL Subroutine RDIST

(see preceding description of RDIST)

Confute Annual: LAUNCH, SATELLITE, INSURANCE COSTS, andCAPITAL EXPENDITURES

Establish ANNUAL DEPRECIATION for:LAUNCH COST *INSURANCE *SPACECRAFT *OTHER ASSETS *

Accumulate TOTAL DEPRECIATION

Establish: S/C OPERATING EXPENSES *ENGINEERING EXPENSES *R fc D EXPENSES *G & A EXPENSES *in the same manner as narrow & wide band prices

Confute ANNUAL:TOTAL OPERATIONS EXPENSE * •*GROSS JWdN * **DEBT SERVICE *BEFORE TAX PROFIT *

FIGURE B.I MODEL PLOW AW) ICDULE DESCRIPTIONS (CONTINUED)

45

Cost spread S/C NON-RECOR COST *INO3C TAX *INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT *AFTER TAX PROFIT (LOSS) * **

Cost spread:LAUNCH COOTSINSURANCE COSTSSATELLITE COSTS

Confute ANNUAL:CAPITAL EXPENDITURES * •CASE FLOW *TOTAL CASE INFLOW *TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW *NET CASE FLOW * **DDEBTEONESS * **

Ccqpute:PRESENT VALOE * **TOTAL ASSETSRETURN ON ASSETS * **RETURN ON SALES * **

Fill in tables:NUMBER OF LAUNCH ATTEMPTS * **NUMBER OF SPACECRAFT FURC * **

00 Back to "Initialize variables dependent upon eachMonte Carlo Run" until all runs are ccnpleted

Setup Reports and Print

- CALL Subroutine OUTPUT

Oonpute AVERAGES of * values(• value times 1 divided by I of Monte Carlo Runs)

Confute STANDARD DEVIATIONS for ** values

Write Reports

FIGURE B.I MODEL PLOW AND MXULE DESCRIPTIONS (CONTINUED)

46

II Model. It is assured that the user of the Model is familiar

with the I/THIS 123 oconand set. The specific LOTUS macro

ccranands necessary to enter the data in the worksheet, print the

worksheet, save the worksheet, write the file for input to the

DGMSAT II Model and to run the Model are described in following

paragraphs.

Approximate execution time for the sample worksheet data

provided in the following pages is about 235 minutes — two (2)

minutes to read the input data and about 14 seconds per Monte

Carlo run (1000 runs) . Printing the results takes about 3

minutes more. Thus, the fixed or overhead time is approximately

5 minutes with a variable time of 14 seconds per run. Rin tine

is actually a function of the scenario being analyzed. For

example, increasing the ranker of satellites, and/or the nunfcer

of groups and transponders per group, and/or the number of Monte

Carlo runs will increase the running tine. Also, the more

uncertainty data the longer the run time.

B.2 I/7R3S 123 Macro ftwnands yid Iheir

In order to enter the data in the worksheet, print the

worksheet, save the worksheet, write the file for input to the

DOMSAT II Model and to run the Model, the following procedures

should be followed and the following comnands utilized:

* Insert the I0TOS 123 System Diskette in Drive A

* Insert the DOCEL (i.e., the data base and the compiledFORERAN code) Diskette in Drive B

* Type [123] (note that [ and ] do not get typed but areused to denote the specific required keystrokes) when theA> appears on the screen.

47

* Type any key to bring up a blank worksheet

* Type [/PR] to retrieve the worksheet (DO2.WKS)

The user way now use the following MACRO COMMANDS:

* Type l<alt key>L] and the worksheet is listed on theprinter. Make sure the printer is onand the forms are at the top of thepage.

* Type [<alt key>H] and the HOC (see footnote) isbrought up to be used in changing theworksheet. The MEHJ is illustratedin Figure B.2. Changing the work-sheet uses the standard set of LOTOS

* Type [/PS] and the changed worksheet is saved.f

* Type [<alt key>DJ and the input file (DCOH.FWO ismade up for the model and is writtenon Diskette B.

If an INXIM.PFN already exists onDiskette B, type [/PE P] to ERASE it.

* Type l/Ql to EXIT from LOTOS.

The following is the procedure for FUNKING THE HGDEL (i.e.,

performing the FORTRAN confutations, saving the results and

writing the results to the printer) .

* After EXITING LOTOS and A appears on the screen, FEMCVEthe LOTOS system diskette f ran DriveA.

* Type [B: ] and the MODEL is now set up to run with theinput data just provided via LOTOS.

* Type IDOMDEL] and the Model will read the input data(notice the light on Drive B) .

from the MEND the user selects an area of the worksheet thathe wishes to look at and/or change. This area will appearon the screen such like the printout of the worksheet.After any changes have been made (using standard LOTOSfgrirtandfi) to the values on the screen, the user returns tothe MENU «alt key>M] or QOTTS l/Q].

48

The screen will display the nunber ofruns as they are canfdeted — a mess-age after the first run and every10th run thereafter. This provides astatus report on progress. When allruns are conpleted the results willgo directly to the printer, takesure the printer is on and that thepaper is lined up to begin printingat the top of the page — one blanksheet will cone out before actualprinting begins.

B.3 Input Data Description

Inputting of data is acccnplifihed through the use of the

LOTOS 123 user friendly input data system. Predefined formats

(i.e., spread sheets) have been defined into which the input data

is placed. The data base for a ccranunications satellite business

venture analysis consists of up to 38 screens of data.

Individual data elements may be changed or an entire data base

nay be created using the LOTOS 123 facilities. Any screen of

data may be reached by scrolling or a particular screen may be

selected for editing by using the MEND as indicated in Figure

B.2. Typing <ALT>M brings up the MENU screen; typing a number

brings up the desired data screen (for example, typing the nunber

5 results in the display of the launch scenario data).

Figures B.3 through B.12 illustrate a typical data base for

a comnunications satellite business venture. The definitions of

the line-itens comprising the data base, consisting of the 38

screens (indicated by the numbers in I ]), are indicated below

and organized on a screen-fcy-screen basis.

49

DOMSAT MODEL. DPTA GROUPSTYPE NUMBER FOR GROUP; (ALT)M TO GET BACK TO THIS LIST. (ALT>0 TO QUIT

Cn GLOBAL DATA (SYSTEM)CE3 GLOBAL DATA (FINANCIAL)C3D TRANSPONDER DATAC43 SPACECRAFT SUPPORT SUBSYSTEM DATAC33 LAUNCH SCENARIO DATAC63 DEMAND: BY SERVICE TYPE AND SATELLITEC863 PRICE (ft/YR): BY SERVICE TYPEC3CO PRICE ELASTICITY DATAC31D CORRELATION DATAt32D COST/EXPENSE DATA S/C CONTROL UNIT COST(*>C333 " S/C CONTROL OPERATIONS COST(»)C343 N ENGINEERING EXPENSEC353 " R*D EXPENSEC363 - GftA EXPENSEC373 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DATAC38D UNCERTAINTY PROFILE DATA

FIGUPE B.2 MEND FOR DTCRIIG DATA INTO THE DOMSAT MXEL

50

Screen til r cinh»i Data I (Refer to Figure B.3)

The Global System Data describes the broad parameters of the

business system that will be described by data in the following

sections.

1. NO. YRS ANALYZIZ).....The ranker of years to be considered inin the business plan (oust be equal to orless than 15) .

2. MAX. I OPER. SATS.... The maximum number of operational satel-lites to be considered in the businessplan (most be equal to or less than 5) .

3. LAUNCH DATES (YRS)...Tbe desired initial launch date for eachof the operational satellites (i.e., 5.5indicates that the initial launch attemptfor the second operational satellite willoccur half-way through year 5) . When anoperational satellite fails it will bereplaced. For example, with the indic-ated data the objective is to maintain 3operational satellites after year 7.5.

4. LAUNCH DELAYS.

5. LED to GBOTRANSFER TIKE.

.If a failure occurs during a launchanother launch will be attenuated. Thiswill occur after a specified period oftime—the launch delay. The launch delaymay be specified in terms of a range ofuncertainty (i.e., maxinum and minimumanticipated delays) and the form of theuncertainty (i.e., the name or number ofthe uncertainty profile that describesthe probability density function withinthe range of uncertainty—the uncertaintyprofiles are defined in figure B.13). Ifthere is no uncertainty then the max. andmin. values should be set equal to eachother and the uncertainty profile isimmaterial.

.Ihe tine to transfer from LEO to GBO mustbe specified for each year (as specifiedin (1)) of the analysis. 0.25 indicatesa quarter of a year delay—the time tocheck out the satellite in GBO isincluded (i.e., typically about 3months). -

C l DNO. tflMAX. «LAUNCH

D^TM (SYSTEM)

ODER.DATES

S«T5(YRS)

SATELLITESATELLITESflTELLlTESATELLITESflTELLlTE

LAUNCHMAX.

NO. 1NO. £NO. 3NO. 4NO. 5

DELAYSDELAY(YRS)

WIN. DELAY(YRS)L'NCERT. PROFILE

5.LEO TO GEOTRANSFER TIME -r(YRS 1 THRU 15J

6. NO. SIMUL. RUNS

7.50. 00. 0

0.8

0. if-0. £50.15

ORIGINALOR POOR FS

0. c.5 u. w'50. £5 0. i'50. c5 0. £5

(FINANCIAL)

j.A.

DEBT SVC INT RT XEFFECT TAX RATE XINVEST TAX CRDT XTAX CREDIT ONLAUNCH COS-INSURANCE CS/C RECUR.OTHER CAP.

5. PAYA&uES (X6. RCVS (X REV.7. CASH (X EXP.8. INSUR^ <0 = N/1=Y)9 S/C LEARN. RATE X10! DEPRECIATION LIFE

LAUNCH,INS.,S/COTHER CAP. EXP.

11. DISCOUNT RATE (%)

ic'. (.1Ib. 010. 0

OSTCOSTEXP.EXP. I

))

e.16.I.

11i

1.i7C_l

et.'.'

:o. o1 £. (j

10. 0 £S. 0

PIGUPE B.3 INPOT DAI* POFMM: OÔBAL DMA (SfSIEJI 4 FINANCIAL)

6. NO. SDfJL. RUNS ...... The number of simulation runs to beperformed in the Monte Carlo analysis.

121 "frfn Data (Financial) (Refer to Figure B.3)

The Global Financial Data establishes the underlying

financial parameters to be used in the planning and evaluation of

the business venture.

1. DEBT SVC INT FT %....Debt service interest rate expressed asa percentage.

2. EFFECT TAX PATE %.... Effective tax rate expressed as apercentage. It is assumed that thecoanuni cations satellite business ventureis part of a large corporation whereprofits and losses are consolidated.

3. INVEST TAX CTOT %.... Investment tax credit expressed as apercentage.

4. TAX CREDIT ON ........ The input data specifies whether or notinvestment tax credits are taken onlaunch cost, insurance cost, spacecraftrecurring cost, and other capitalexpenditures. A "1* indicates that taxcredits are taken and a "0" indicatesthat tax credits are not taken.

5. PAYABLES (% EXP.) ....Average number of weeks of outstandingpayables expressed as a percentage (forexpamle, 6 weeks of payables is equal to11.5%— 6/52 of a year).

6. RCVS (% REV.) ........ Average number of weeks of outstandingreceivables expressed as a percentage(for example, 6 weeks of receivables isequal to 11.5%).

7. CASE (% REV.) ........ Amount of cash, expressed as a percentageof annual revenue, required to meetcurrent expenses.

8. DBDR? (0»N/1-Y) ..... When launch insurance is to be taken thenenter "!', otherwise enter *0."

9. S/C LEARN. RATE %.... Spacecraft learning rate expressed as apercentage. The S/C unit recurring costis reduced by a percentage equal to 100minus the learning rate every tire thequantity dcx&les.

53

10. DEPRECIATION LIFE(YRS) The depreciation life (years) for launch,

insurance and spacecraft, and othercapital expenditures. Straight linedepreciation is utilized.

11. DISCOUNT RATE (%)...Discount rates {%) utilized in thecomputation of net present value of cashflow. The present value is establishedat each of these discount rates.

121 - Transponder Data (Refer to Figure B.4)

The spacecraft may consist of both •narrow-" and •wide-band"

transponders that may operate in two different frequency bands

(for example, C- and Ku-bands). Within each of these frequency

bands there may be a number of groups of transponders (maximum of

5) with a specified muter of active transponders per group

(maximum of 25) and a specified number of spare transponders per

group (maximum of 10). The reliability characteristics of each

of these transponders is described in terms of random and wear out

phenomena. Data for both the narrow- and wide-band transponders

is similar and consists of the following:

1. K). OF GROUPS Number of groups of transponders withinthe frequency band. It is assumed thatspare transponders within a group mayreplace any of the active transponderswithin the group.

2. NO. TBANS/GKP Number of active transponders per group.

3. SPARE TBANS/GRP Number of spare transponders providedinitially per group. As activetransponders fail these spares are thenutilized.

4. MEAN TIME FAIL-YR....Mean-time-to-failure (year) of atransponder.

5. EXP. WEARQOT-YRS Transponder expected wear-out time(year).

54


C23NARROW BANDNO. OF GROUPSNO. TRANS/GRPSPARE TRANS/GRPWEAN TME FAIL-YREXP. WEAROUT-VRSSTD WEArtOJT-YSS

WIDE BANDNO. OF GROUPSNO. TRANS/GRPSPARE TRANS/G5PmEAN TME FAIi_-fREXP. WEAROL'T-YRSSTD WEAROUT-YRS

7.UI/N BAND REL IMP.2.TRNSPNDR THRSHLD

SATELLITE NO. 1SATELLITE NO. iSATELLITE NO. 2SATELLITE NO. 4SATELLITE NO. 5

E* DftTA

1Ifc

1. •

RELAUNCH151515

O0

•J , MEAN ~tn£ F 6 i u - > *2. EXP. WEAROUT-YRS3. STD WEAROUT-YRS

i5u. i.i1 5. 01. O

SPACECRAFT SU=PCRT SJBSYSTE'SUBSYSTEM

AVC5 TT«C S'RJC'URE

8. 'j 15. 11 £:O. 00. 5 1.0 1.0

75.0iO. 01. O

FIGURE B.4 INPUT DATA FOWftT: TRANSPONDER DATA AM) SPAOXRAFTSUPPORT SOBSYSnH DATA

55

6. SH> WEAROUT-YRS The wear-out characteristics aredescribed in terns of a normaldistribution having a specified expectedvalue (previous response) and standarddeviation (current response) about the

• - expected value.

7. W/N BAND RO, IMP Relative importance of a wide-bandtransponder to a narrow-band transponder.This is used in making a relaunchdecision based upon the number of narrcw-and wide-band transponders that are stillavailable for use> The relativeimportance nay be based upon the relativerevenue production of the wide- andnarrow-band transponders.

8. TSNSROR THRSHIDRE1ADNCH Effective number of transponders (narrow-

band plus wide-band adjusted to reflectthe relative importance) that triggers arelaunch. When the effective number oftransponders falls below the specifiedvalue the particular spacecraft will bereplaced as soon as possible with anotherspacecraft. The specific tine ofreplacement will depend upon launchdelays and launch failures.

Screen 141 - S f grflf*" Support Subsystem pata (Refer to FigureB.4)«

In addition to individual transponders, the reliability

characteristics of five major subsystems (i.e., power, on-orbit

propulsion (AVCS), tracking, teleroety and conrand (TT&C),

structure, and other) nay be considered. These nay be. any

subsystems but with the general characteristics that the failure

of one of these subsystems for all practical purposes makes the

satellite inoperative and thus sets in motion the launch of a

replacement. As with the transponders, the reliability

characteristics of each subsystem are described in terms of

random and wearout phenomena as follows:

1. MEAN TIME FAIL-YR... .Mean-time-to-failure (years) of eachsubsystem.

56

2. EXP. WEAROUT-YPS Subsystem expected wear out time (years).

3. STD WEARQUT-YRS Variability, expressed as the standarddeviation, of wear out time (year) aboutthe mean or expected value.

151 r launch Sppfvn'ft Data (Refer to Figure B.5)

The launch scenario is described for each of the years to be

considered in the business plan. The launch scenario contains a

statement of the estimated probability of success of each of the

major steps in the launch sequence and launch cost data. The

consideration of this data on an annual basis provides the

mechanism for utilizing different transportation systems (for

example, expendables such as Ariane and reusables such as the

Space Shuttle with either reusable or expendable upper stages).

The following data oust be provided for each year of the

analysis:

PFCBABILnY OF:

1. BOOSTER SUCCESS Booster or first-stage success.

2. OFB SUC-ND PBOPS Second stage (i.e., orbiter) successgiven a first stage or booster success.

3. P/L OF FINAL OFB Payload operating successfully whenplaced-in final orbit.

4. FRH-SN MOD GROUT LBD to GEO transfer stage checking outsuccessfully in LEO.

5. XFER LED TO GEO Successful transfer from LEO to GEO giventhat all previous steps were successful.

6. OFB RCVRY-ABOFT Recovering the second stage (i.e.,orbiter) given a second stage abort.

7. OFB RCVRY-fi FAIL Recovering the second stage (i.e.,orbiter) given that there was a boosterfailure.

8. OFB RCVRy-FLT OK Recovering the second stage given anotherwise successful flight.

57

cs: ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALITY >£Ar<

OF:

1. BOOSTER SUCCESS2. ORE- SUC-NO O&ORT3. O/L OK FlNftL ORBf. DRPuSN mOD CKOUT

XFER LED TO GEOORB RCVRY-ABOR7ORB RCVRY-B FfllLORB RCVRY-FLT OK

9. MQX UNCH COST M*10. WIN I.NCH COST rr$r11. LNCH CST LNCRT PF

5.6.7.8.

OF:

BOOSTER SUCCESSORB SJC-NO fiBORTD/L OK FlNfiL ORBPRPLSN MOD CKO'JTXFER LEO TO GEOORB RCVRV-fiBORTORB RCVRY-B FftlLClRB RCVRY-FLT OK

MQX LNCH IOST M*MlN LNCH COST n%LNCH CST JNCRT PF

PROBPBILI'V Or:

BOOSTER SUCCESSORB SUC-NU OBOSTP/L OK FlNftL ORBPRPuSN MOD CKuoTXFER LEO TO GEOORB RCVRr-fiBORTORB RCVRV-B FAILORB RCVRv-FuT On

MQX LNC»n COS"T M»MIN LNC^ COST fr.»LNCH CST JNCPT PF

0. 3350. 3350. 95O0. 9500. 9500. 9900. 9300. 333

£J. 738£' i . 736

1

t

0. 3350. 3550. 3500. 3500. 3500. 3300. 9300. 933£!. 796c'i. 796

1

1 1

0. 335". 335". 35"". 35"'. 55"-. 55">. 33< ''. 533

£.•1. 736£l . 796

1

0. 335O. 335O. 35 00. 3500. 3500. 3500. 330O Q 'w 1

£'J . 796£ 1 . 736

:

fc

7

0. 3350. 335n. 95Ou. 95O". 950". 930i. 93'".'(i. 399

£' . 738£•1. 736

1

i£'

• i. ---5". 355". 35"<•. 55"'. 55"'. 93' '•. 33- 1v. 533

£1. 738£ 1 . 736

1

0. 3350. 335i .35",i. 35<>M. 35' •<>. 35'.'o. 330". 353

£ 1. 736£1. 736

1

.A C, SC

6

0. 3350. 3350. 35< '0.35"0. 35"0. 33"0.33"0. 335

L\ . 73C1

£•1. 7361

UGJNO s;

Ji

<>. 335' .355«••. 550". 35...'. 95-:''. 330i. 33.'J. 33a

£'1. 798£1.736

1

0.3950. 395<». 950". 95'".'<». 950". 99'Ji. 990o. 959

c.1. 73e£l. 796

i

SN«:O D^-

3

0. 3350. 3350. 35O0. 3500. 3500. 3300. 33O0. 335

i'l. 736£' 1 . 756

1

ISNPRIO D^'YEAR

I'*

' . 935C. 335t . 950i . 950". 950• >. 930<>. 33Oii. 333£l. 736£1. 736

1

". 335". 335ii. 950". 35"'i. 35"0. 33* '0. 99uij. 999

£1. 796c. i . 758

1

~

1O

' . 395". 335i ». 35O1 '. 350>. 950>. 590'. 990'. 533

£•:. 756£'1 . 796

- . . " "'. = 1

"

15

". 3?"-". 335". 350• i. 35':• •. 950• •. 95 :' '. 35 ."'( . i.

£1. 7?r£•: . 795

1

B.S DMA POP»T: IAK3 9CB*RIO DA3A

58

launch cost IE treated as an uncertainty variable and most

be specified in terns of the range of uncertainty and the form of

the uncertainty (i.e., the name of the uncertainty profile as

indicated in screen [38]). The launch cost data oust be

specified for each year of the analysis thus allowing for changes

in transportation systems, pricing policies and levels of

uncertainty associated with future pricing policies. Note that

certainty is considered by setting the range of uncertainty to

zero. When this is done the uncertainty profile is immaterial.

9. MAX LNCB COST M$ The maximum estimated cost per launch (inmillions of dollars) for each year of theanalysis.

10.KIN LNCB COST K$ The minimum estimated cost per launch (inmillions of dollars) for each year of theanalysis.

11.LK2 CST UNCKT PP....The name (from screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe range of uncertainty for each year ofthe analysis.

Screen 16 through 25tl - Demand Data (Refer to Figure B.6)

Demand data must be provided for each year of the analysis,

for narrow-band and wide-band transponders, for each satellite

considered and for service type. The following four specific

service types may be considered:

1. Protected Service - protection is provided throughprovision of spares and preemptible transponders.

2. Protected/Preemptible Service - protection is providedthrough available spares and preemptible transponders.This service may be preempted if protected users requiretransponders.

3. Chprotected/Non-Preemptible - replacement transpondersare not guaranteed but service may not be interrupted toprovide service for other users.

59

DEMAND: SERVICE ~>i£

NARROW-E-AND

YEAR1

*~345&76910i ;ii131415

MAX.DEMAND

0) °00000000oo00o0

MlN. UNCERT. mAx.DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND(?.) 0 /3)

c»ooooo

- o000o0oo

0 (t00o0cj0o000o00u

<) °o0&151516171813£' '£•<>£o£'i£'0

MlN. UNCEDEMAND PRQF

(5) 0 (6}00e,101 1iiiiiiiii ;•i lililili

RT.

IL£i|i\ ir"

•;

Oc

'1 t>i **

O

eto/

7

7f

/

i. I J vD: SERVICE ~VPE

NARROW-BANDSATELLITE

WIDE-BAND

YEAR1i

•

45e7S.3io1 1li131415

MAX. mlN. UNCERT. WAX. WIN. UNCERT.DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFIi_£

000o000o-000o0o0

0ooooGoGOGoooGO

o0000oo000000o0

00007

1 1141£171613iO£0iO£0

00ooc-(

&

10lililili1 ili.lili

0, " 1

0l')

-

ei 4.

&

&

/

77

7

FIGUFE B.6 INWT DATA POFMAT: DQAM)

60

YEAR

1

b76"p

1 01 1Ic1

• 7

mflx.DEMftMD

oOGGOO0oGG0

"1IN.

SERVICE TYPESATELLITE t t

« 1ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALITY

0o000G

00ooo

WIDE-&QNDUNCERTPROFlL

•

c

0O00fto00oo00oofj

MftX. WIN. UNCERT.DEmftND DEfiOND PROFILE

0 id <0 tO <.0 (0 i

» t> ,> i> (» <.> <

0 u (

1 0 & -15 1 £ ! «1 & 1 £. 14,

17 i £ ,18 l i £

13 1 £ fiO li -;

£0 ic :

VEPR1

&7e3

2011lc'13

max.DEfiftND

(.iO

oooooM

G

o(")

WIN.DEPEND

D: SERVICE TYPE «1SftTEuLlTE « 4

UNCERT.PROFILE

000o0ooo0G000oo

0

o0

o00

uMOX.DEMAND

IDE-&PNDWIN.DEMPND

CJ0

< iuJ))

G00000oo

o(j

o0GGOGoGGGGGG

UNCERT.PROFILE

V

OG0

FIGUPE B.6 INPUT DAIA POR»J: DDWO DATA

61

. 10 j

YEAR

1

769

1011i <=.'13

DEMAND: SERVICE TyP£SATELLITE «

WIDE-BONDMAX.

DEMAND<i.i4

(

(

1

1

(

(

(

I.(_

(

MIN.DEMAND

> v) <.' i> ('» <i (i •> (i t) »> i) i' ii i> (

UNCERT.PROFILE

-> <' ^' l.» ^> (.' <j i> (.

ii i> i) 4.

( i

> t.

) t.

MAX.DEMAND

> O) O) 0' 0) 01 0-' 0( '.">> 0' C'> 0» 0' 01 01 O

MIN.DEMAND

0000O00ooc>0o0c_>0

UNCERT.PROFILE

0oc>ou( )

(.>1 >

1 !

t ;

i i

i •

( .

( 1

I )

rEAR

t,783

1Oi 11£1314

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *£SOTELLITE * i

NARROW-BANDMAX. MIN. UNCERT.

DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE00O00oooooM

0C'

0ooooo

(">

ooM

0C'o(")

ooo0o000o0000C)0

MlMAX.DEMAND

00000o06ooC'o0oC'

DE-BANDWIN.DEMAND

0000o0

. 0oooooooo

UNCERT.PROFILE

(.'

FIGURE B.6 INR7T C*TA FOF»I: DOWC DATA (CONTINUED)

62

SERVICE TYPE «£•ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALITY

W I D E - B A N DW A X .

YEAR DEPHHNDi

3 iA.

* iC"5 i

e. *7' i

«.^ i

i < ' i• • t

1 1 (

1 *.

£ (

1 2 i1 <* (15

WIN.DEMAND

1 0' 0

•> o' 01 01 0' 01 0' 0' 01 01 0' 01 0' 0

UNCERT.PROFILE

o0oo00o0o0o0o00

W A X .DEmftND

,-i

O0ooo00o00o( )

u( )

WIN.

DEMAND1*1t'00000C)0000u( )I )( )

UNCERT.PROFILE

i.([

C([

f"V.

c

Crcr

Cri_"(

C

C133 : SERVICE TYPE *£SATELLITE « 3

W I D E - B A N DMAX. mlN.

YEA« DEMAND DEMAND1 0 C•=•' C- c;3 ij ,<* • o •:t15 o <;£ .•.' i7 06 0 i=* 0 i

1 'I' C' i1 1 ,;, ,1 i o i13 o t

1 * 0 .;1 C1J ij I

UNCERT.PROFILE

> 0:> o'.' 0'.< 0:> o> 0!'• 0' i i' t• *.'

> 0'.' 0.' 0i' O:» o!' C>!' 0

WAX.DEmAND

000o(j(joor>C)0O0Ol")

WIN.DEMAND

VijijijC<oo0o0000oo

UNCERT.PROFILE

0ooo0o0oo(">

o

C'oM

0

FIGUFE B.6 INPUT DATA FQWAT: DOWD DATA

63

YEAR1

6769

Iv.)

1 1l£12

DEMAND:

NARROW-BAND

~rP£ »iSATELLITE

WIDE-BANDMAX.

DEMAND

•

0>:>o0co0oij

o0ij

I)]

r ,

C'

WIN.DEMAND

C>o0o0o0000ooo<~.

o

UNCERT. MAX.PROFILE DEMAND

o «:o <;0 ».0 «.0 >O '.0 <0 i0 '0 <0 cO iij 1

'.* «

0

MIN. UNCERT.DEMAND PROFILE

1 0 o' 01 0 c i1 0 < )' 0 (1 0.> 0 i1 0 i; 0 i• 0

0 c1 0I' 0 •;> o> 0 t

DEMAND: SERVICE

YEAR1c

£763101 1li13

SATELLITE «NARROW-BAND WIDE-BAND

MAX.DEMAND

<;iiiii

<

MIN.DEMAND

> 0Oijoo0oo6

' O' O> 0' O1 O1 C>

UNCERT.PROFILE

Oo("l

00o0c-0ooc>00o

MAX.DEMAND

0o0o0oij

G000(."1C'o0

MIN.DEMAND

C'0oo0r.)00c>o00o0M

UNCERT.PROFILE

ooC'•;.(i\fi0GC:

o>.'

l_t

C'(_!

v

FIGOPE B.6 INTOT EA3A POWftT: DOWC DATA (CtNTDUID)

64

l l f e j DEmf iND: SSATELLITE

T Y P E »3

WIDE-BAND


MftX.

YEAR DEMAND1 i•^ I2 tA±*• <

5 c6 .

(

7 i6 ,3 ,

;o ,1 1 i12 i13 i1* i

1 C_l 1

MIN.DEMAND

'' 0•' O' 01 0' 01 0' 0> C)

.(,)

(1)' O1 I'.)1 0' 0

0

UNCERT.

PROFILEC'u00oo£)

0u<ll

0«1»

oill

«"l

MAX. WIN.

DEMAND DEMAND0 tl0 i0 i'.i i0 i0 (,0 1*.0 (0 (0 10 i0 t'".1 (0 <0 (

I fK*^ ~ 3 UNLt K . .

DRQF I i f cW A L_ W

I ('

>» ,-

) .•\ t-' (.I .-' t_1 C) (-v»l (-1 ,

) ll> ,-1 C( ("

J c

L17J : SERVICE TrPE «3

NARROW-BANDSATELLITE

WIDE-BAND

YEAR1Z>k_

w

*+

^

£76

9101 1li131 <«15

MAX. MIN. UNCERT.DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE

O 0 0O *1» ill

0 0 d)'-' 0 (jO 0 oO 0 ill

*•"' 0 00 C' di0 C' 0'j 0 o0 0 0O ill 00 O 0O 0 (I)'•"' '!' ('.i

MAX. WIN. UNCERT.

DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE0 C) 00 O (li

'i' 0 00 'j o

0 O o'•' 0 ill0 O oG M i"i

0 O C;o ii> >:>0 ij »;•0 O 00 O o0 <li o0 (1> ill

FIGURE B.6 DW7T POPMAT: DDWO DKTA (ODNTIM7H))

65

C18D DEMAND: SERVICE TYPESATELLITE

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BAND

YEAR1£34567831O1 1li1514

15

mfix.DEMAND

O00oo000

0C)0000o

WIN.DEMAND

000o0o00(j

o1

Oij

ij

0

UNCERT.PROFILE

000O0C>0OoC1

(jo000


0 C><".' «.'C) 0o c0 O0 00 'J0 00 •!'0 v0 00 Oo o0 'I'1

0 0

)

0

C193 DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE «3SATELLITE « 4

NARROW-BAND H I D E - B A N D

YE

111111

AR1i

24

5&789O1c34r•j

MQX. WIN.DEMAND DEMAND

0 C0 ^C> iO i0 v0 «0 v0 ' ' •O <0 i0 t0 ic «O i(j

UNCERT.PROFILE

; Oi >j

> Oi 0' 0i O> 0) O:> o.» oj O:> o1) 0j 0:• o

MAX.DEMAND

OO00C"o000(j

0000o

WIN. UNCERT.DEMAND paOrlL£

0 0<.> C1

0 0••".' O'j 0u 'i1

O 00" '-'o c>(.) 0

o o0 "00 0o oO C'

FIGOPE B.6 IMEVT DATA FORMAT: DQWC DATA

66

U-03 DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »3 ORIGINAL PAGEESATELLITENARROW-BAND

YEAR

c.w

Hf56

631011li1 314

15

nox.DEMAND

0000000000oo0I'l

o

MIN.DEMAND

OO0o00000o000.1,1

(j

UNCERT.PROFILE

OOoo0ooo0o000.(.)

o

« 5 0•

Porns «• wrt if!

W1DE-&AND V

MAX.DEMAND

00OOo0oooo00ooo

MIN.DEMAND

oo0ol")

0(•)

U"

0l')

o0oo1.")

UNCERT.PROFILE

i_i<iii

t.iI.f

(N.

iiN.

^c

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *«»SATELLITE «

NARROW-BAND

YEAR1£345£7e3101 1l£'131 4

15

MAx.DEMAND

00000O00oooooor»

MIN.DEMAND

00oU( )I >

000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0000oo0U

oooo000

WIDE-BANDMAX.

DEMANDOOo3444*»444*

4444

MIN.DEMAND

o0M

;-

:.

-.

-.c.

^t

c'

.

£;•

*•

UNCERT.PROFILE

0o(")

-.c

tc

1

c.'

2-

;

C;.

iT.'

FIGURE B.6 TOOT DMA POWftT: DDWO DMA (CONTINUE))

67

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »4SATELLITE N £

NARROW-BAND WIDE-POND

YEAR1c:w

45£7a91011lc'131415

MOX.DEMAND

0O0O0o0o0o000o0

WIN.DEMAND

OO000o0ooooc>0o0

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O00000Oo00o0C)0

MAX.DEMAND

00003444444444•4

WIN.

DEMAND0000c'2.crw

£.'<=:c.'£•,£•

c.w

UNCERT.PROFILE

0< >o( )

1£

c'£_'

w

C'

£.

,£."

C.

;£'

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »4SATELLITE * 3


YEAR1£345£7e31O1 11£1314

15

MAX.DEMAND

oO0O00Ooo0o00oo

WIN.DEMAND

0o0o000o00c>ool">

o

UNCERT.PROFILE

0000C)000ooo0oo0

MAX.DEMAND

000000034444444

WIN.DEMAND

0000o0o£c.'£•

£.'c:c.c.',£'

UNCEPT.PROFILE

O( >u1 1OOC'1c.'w

C

w

w

.L

£.

FIGUFE B.6 TJOVT DMA FQF»T: DQWC DATA (OCNTDUH))

68

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPESATELLITE *

»<*ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALITY


YEAR1£3*»567B9101 1lc: 2!«•1 5

MflX.DEMAND

0000o00C'0o0o000

MIN.DEMAND

0oo0o00oo0oo0o0

UNCERT.PROFILE

Ooo00oooo0000oo

MAX.DEMAND

0o000000000o00C)

MIN.DEMAND

00O00C>O0000ooM

o

UNCERT.PROFILE

GoGoGOGOC>0oI'l

C:(!)o

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPESATELLITE « 5


YEAR1•I3«»c-.

t7B9: >;•: ii£A »'

A ^*

15

MAX.DEMAND

G00000(j

0(j

0on

00G

MIN.DEMAND

00(jo(I)oooo0C'c>ooo

UNCERT.PROFILE

0000oC)0G0G0GGoG

MAX.DEMAND

00GGO000000fj00G


oOOC'ooooo(j

o0ooo

PIGUFE B.6 INPUT DATA POROT: DOWC DATA (CCNTTNUZD)

69

4. Preemptible - not protected. May be preempted ifrequired to provide service for protected users.

The demand data screens proceed across all satellites for each

service type. Thus there are 20 screens for demand data (5

satellites z 4 service types) . The data required is as follows:

WKROW-BND

1. MNC. DBAM) .......... Maxinuo estimated demand for narrow-bandtransponders for each year of theanalysis (mmber of transponders) .

2. KIN. DEMAND .......... Minimum estimated demand for narrow-bandtransponders for each year to theanalysis (number of transponders).

3. Dhuacr. PROFILE ...... The name (from screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe narrow-band transponder demand.

WIBE-BMO

4. MX. DEMAK) .......... Maximum estimated demand for wide-bandtransponders for each year of theanalysis (nmber of transponders).

5. fdM. DDANX. ........ Minimum estimated demand for wide-bandtransponders for each year of theanalysis (nmfcer of transponders) .

6. ONUKT. PROFILE ...... The name (fron screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe wide-band transponder demand.

121 through 221 - Price Data (Refer to Figure B.7)

Price data must be provided for both the narrow-band and

wide-band transponders for each year of the analysis and for each

of the four types of service (as designated above) . All pricing

data is to be provided in fhntis*ndg of dollars per year.

WSOW-&AK)

1. MX. PRICE ........... MtTjimti estimated price (thousands ofdollars) for narrow-band transponders peryear for each year of the analysis.

70

ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALITY PRICE ( * / Y R ) : SERVICE TYPE

YE3R1£.

«

4cr5£&7f

1 C1

1 1i ;•A W

1 JL «J

i *t

1 54 taj

— «wwf-ni»L/

MflX. WIN. UNCERT. WAX. WIN. UNCERT.PRICE PRICE PROFILE PRICE PRICE PROFILE(1) o (2) 0 (3) o (4) o (5) o (51 „

0o

000o00l"»I^J

<;>

o{ )

o1 )

00o0000o00t"»

o0o

0000000000oU•. iU

00

3700370036003500340033003£003 1 003000300030003000

OO

333O33303 £4031503O£0£370£860£730£700£7OO£700£700

»»•

oo

£

6£

£

£££

££

=>RICE ( * / Y R jNARROW-BAND

SERVICE TYPE *£

WIDE-BOND

YEARi4

C.

• J

tv•re-

—1£7

f

lO1 m

1

1 £

1 3: /,*»I fZj

mwx.PRICE

00(\000(*)00oC'(')

o0o

WIN.PRICE

O0o0oo(_)

ooo0t_l

o00

UNCERT.PROFILE

0000o0(".)

00000000

WAX.PRICE

0oo0(*l

0o0000o00C)

WIN.PRICE

OO0O(_)

000GOOo000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0f>0o00coC'oC'oo

PIGDPE B.7 DOOT EftIA PCWftT: PRICE EWE*

71

PRICE <*/YR): SERVICE TYPE *3

-£•33

YEftR1

6.763

10111£121415

YEflR1

45£/

69

1011

12

15

NARROW-BANDMAX.PRICE

00000000t)1 1

1 >

()(.)1)1 1

WIN.PRICE

i<(<

>>>>ii>Oo'-'

UNCERT.PROFILE

000000000000o00

PRICE (*/YR> : S£RVNARROW-BQND

MAX.PRICE

OO0o00ooM

oO"o(".1

00

WIN.PRICE

O0oo0oo00ooo("l

oo

UNCERT.PROFILE

00o0no000

000oo0

WIDE-BANDWAX.PRICE

0O0o0o0000o000o

ICE TYPE

MlN. 'PRICE

0ej

0o0o0o0-:>000oo

«4

UNCERT.PROFILE

o0o0ooo

1 0o0o0o0

':'

WIDE-BANDMAX.

PRICE000

145014501<»50145014501450145014 5O1450145014501-450

WIN.

PRICE000

1 20513O51205120512051 2051 2O51 3O51205120512051 205

UNCERT.PROFILE

00o££££££££££££

FIGUPE B.7 DffOT DMA PCWW: PRICE DATA (OOKTINUED)

72

2. KIN. PRICE Minimum estimated price (thousands ofdollars) for narrow-band transponders peryear for each year of the analysis.

3. UNCEKT. PROFILE The name (front screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe price for narrow-band transponders.

WIDE-BAND

4. MAX. PRICE Maximum estimated price (thousands ofdollars) for wide-band transponders peryear for each year of the analysis.

5. KIN. PRICE Mininun estimated price (thousands ofdollars) for wide-band transponders peryear for each year of the analysis.

6. DNCEPT. PROFILE......The name (from screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe price for wide-band transponders.

f301 - Price Elasticity Data (Refer to Figure B.8)

Price elasticity data must be provided for both the narrow-

and wide-band services. The price elasticity is represented by

the percent demand o>crMSP resulting from a 25 percent price

increase. Thus, when it is estimated that a 25 percent price

increase will result in a 25 percent decrease in demand the price

elasticity is one (i.e., unit elasticity).

Screen J311 - Correlation Data (Refer to Figure B.8)

Because of the random sampling used to establish the value

of the uncertainty variables (i.e., demand, price, G&A Expense,

etc.) for each year of the analysis, it is possible that

unreasonable year-to-year fluctuations will occur in the values

of these variables. To smooth out unwarranted fluctuations year-

to-year correlation coefficients have been introduced. The

correlation coefficient relates the current year value of a

variable to all previous years values of the variable. A

73

PAGE ISOF. POOR QUALITY

1.C.30D* DEMAND DECREASE RE5ULTING

FROM A £5* PRICE INCREASE1. PROTECTEDc. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE2. UNPROTECTED/NON-PRE£fPTIBLE<*. PREEMPTIBLE

PRICE ELASTICITY DATANARROW- WIDE-

BAND0. 00.O0. 0O. 0

£5. 0£5. O£5. 0£5. O

C31 CORRELATION DATACORRELATION COEFFICIENT

3.4.5.6.7.

TYPE C^ SERVICEDEMAND DATA

1. PROTECTED£. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTIBLEA. PREEMPTIBLE

PRICE DATA1. PROTECTED£. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTI&LEA. PREEMPTIBLE

S/C CONTROL OPERATIONS.ENGINEERING EXPENSER4D EXPENSEGAA EXPENSEOTHER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

NARROW-BAND

0.0.O.0.

O.O.0.0.

0.

aee6

WIDE-BAND

0,O

&ee6

, 66

. 6, 6

0. 8

PIGUPC B.8 IKPUT DATA PCWftT:OORKEZATICN

aAsncm DMA AM)

correlation coefficient of zero inplies that there is no

dependence on previous year's values whereas a correlation

coefficient of unity iaplies that this years deviation from the

expected value (the result of a random sanple) cannot exceed the

previous year's deviation front its expected value. This is

discussed in detail in Appendix A.

TYPE OF SERVICE

1. DQftM) DATA. The correlation coefficient (in range of0. to 1.0) aust be specified for both thenarrow- and wide-band demand for the (1)Protected, (2) Protected/Preenptible, (3)Onprotected/Non-Preenptible, and (4)Preemptible Services.

2. PRICE DATA. The correlation coefficient (in the rangeof 0. to 1.0) oust be specified for boththe narrow- and wide-band pricing for the(1) Protected, (2) Protected/Preesptible,(3) Dhprotected/Non-Preemptible, and (4)Preemptible Services.

3. S/C CCNHCLOPERATIONS Correlation coefficient (in the range of

0. to 1.0) for annual spacecraft controloperations.

4. ENCHKEZRING EXPOSE. .Correlation coefficient (in the range of0. to 1.0) for annual engineeringexpenses.

5. R & D EXPENSE Correlation coefficient (in the range of0. to 1.0) for annual R&D expenses.

6. G fc A EXPENSE Correlation coefficient (in the range of0. to 1.0) for annual general andadministrative expenses.

7. OTHER CAPITALEXPQCnuKES Correlation coefficient (in the range of

0. to 1.0) for "other" capitalexpenditures.

Screen 1321 - Cost/Expense Data (Refer to Figure B.9)

This portion of the Cost/Expense data is concerned with

75

spacecraft unit cost, spacecraft nonrecurring cost and the cost

of launch insurance. The launch insurance, if taken, is the

specified percentage of launch cost and spacecraft unit cost.

1. MAX S/C UNITOD6T (K$) Maximum estimated spacecraft unit cost

(thousands of dollars). Learning effectsare taken into account when additionalsatellites are purchased.

2. MTN. S/C UNITCOST (K$) Miniraum estimated spacecraft unit cost

(thousands of dollars). Learning effectsare taken into account when additionalsatellites are purchased.

3. S/C ONIT COSTONCER1MNTY PROFILE.The name (from screen [38]) of the

uncertainty profile to be associated withthe s/c unit recurring cost.

4. MAX. S/C HONREOJFKrNGCOST (K$) Maximum estimated spacecraft nonrecurring

cost (thousands of dollars).

5. MIN. S/C NONRBCURRNGCOST (K$) Minimum estimated spacecraft nonrecurring

cost (thousands of dollars).

6. S/C NONREC. COSTUNCEPT. PROFILE The name (from screen [38]) of the

uncertainty profile to be associated withthespacecraft nonrecurring cost..

7. MAX. INSURANCE I When insurance is taken (see screen [2])this represents the maximum estimatedinsurance cost expressed as a percentageof launch cost and spacecraft unit cost.

8. MIN. INSURANCE % When insurance is taken (see screen [2])this represents the minimum estimatedinsurance cost expressed as a percentageof launch cost and spacecraft unit cost.

9. INSURANCE UNCER1MNTYPROFILE The name (free screen [38]) of the

uncertainty profile to be associated withthe cost of launch insurance.

76


1.2.3.4.5.6.7

8.9.

C3i3 COST/EXPENSE DATAWAX. S/C UNIT COST (K*)WIN. S/C UNIT COST <K»)S/C UNIT COST UNCERTAINTY PROFILEWAX. S/C NONRECURRING COST (K*>WIN. S/C NONRECURRING COST <K*>S/C NONREC. COST UNCERT. PROFILEMAX. INSURANCE %p. IN. INSURANCE %INSURANCE UNCERTAINTY PROFIuE

40900. 0364OO. 0

1£cSOOO. 013800. 0

118. 0li.O

13

C33D COST/EXPENSE DATA (CONTINUED)S/C CONTROL ODERATIONS C O S T ( % )

YEAR1£345fc789101 112131*15

MAX.COST(*)(1) 0.0

o. o0. 06. 7i. fc1. 7£'. 01. 81. 81. 9£. 1£. 3£. 5£•. e3. 5

WIN.COST (X)(2) o.o

0. O0. Oe.7£.£1. 7i. 01. 81.81.9i. 1c.. 3i.5i. 83.5

UNCERT.PROFILE(3) i

1iiiiiiiiiiiii

FIGUPE B.9 INPUT DATA FOFMKT: OD6T/DCPBCE

77

Screen f331 - s/C Control Operations Cost ft) (Refer to FigureB.9)

Annual spacecraft control operations cost is confuted as a

percentage of annual revenue. The range of uncertainty (of the

percentage amount) and the associated uncertainty profile is

provided for each year of the analysis.

1. MAX. COST (%) ........ Maximum estimated annual spacecraftcontrol operations cost expressed as a

of annual revenue.

2. MIN. COST (%) ......... Minimum estimated annual spacecraftcontrol operations cost expressed as apercentage of annual revenue.

3. ONCtKT. PROFILE ...... The name (from screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe spacecraft control and operationscost.

Screen F34 through 361 - &>gineerirtgr R&D. and ftfcA Expenses(Refer to Figure B.10 and B.U)

Engineering, R&D and General and Administrative Expense data

are provided, respectively, in screens 34, 35 and 36. A cccnon

format and method for computing these annual expenses are used;

therefore, only the Engineering expense data is described in

detail. In all cases the expense is established as having both a

fixed component (a dollar amount specified for each year of the

analysis) and a variable component (a percentage of revenue where

the percentage is specified for each year of the analysis) . Both

the fixed and variable components are considered as uncertainty

variables. The annual expense is established as either the sun

of the fixed and variable components or as the larger of the two

components.

1. MAX. (K$) ............ MaxiauB estimated annual expense (fixedcomponent) expressed as a dollar amount(in thffffrftnfo of dollars).

78

C3A]

YEAR1

67a3

1011la121415

7. SUM K* * % AflTS

C25J

YEAR1

£7

10


ENGINEERING EXPENSE

15SJM K* ft % AMIS

MAX.<K«>IOOO. 0 /IOOO. 0 V

IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 01 OOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0

o

MAX.(K*)IOOO. 01 OOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 01 OOO. 0IOOO. 01000. 01 OOO. 0i OOO. ("t

1 OOO. 01000. 0: ooo. oIOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0

0

KIN. UNCERT.<K*> PROFILE

9\ 1000. «IOOO. •IOOO. >1000. <1 OOO . <IOOO.1000. «IOOO.1000. i.IOOO.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.

: t3) ;> i> i> ii ii i> i• i• i• i> i> i> i> i

R»DmiN. UNCERT.<K*> PROFILE1000. 0 11 I'M"'''), i

1 000.IOOO. '1 OOO .

1 000. i1 000.1 OOO.

1 000.1000.1 000.1000.IOOO.1000.IOOO.

") i> i> i• i' ii i> i) i• i• i

i> i' ' ii i

MAX.<*)

(4) ?'C.'.

£'*£.i.c. •£. •

^ •

w •

<£..it •i.c. .c.'.c.' .

MIN. UNCERT.<*> PROFILE

0 (5) t'o c:. io £ . c:0 i.i0 c . <0 i. <0 i. <<:> £ . t0 i. i.0 £'. i0 £. '0 i. •0 £ . i0 £. i

> < . \ i. is) ;> i• i» i• i

*• i) :•> ii i]l r

.' i

:> i0 i . 0 1

EXPENSEMAX.(%}

w

£.

C.

^|

C.

£;;.

*

wcc.w

£*

c.

MIN. UNCERT.<*> PROFILE

O 1'. 0 1O i . 0 . . i. 0 i . 0 iC' i . o :. 0 c.' . ''. 1. 0 i . 0 ' 1. 0 £'. v 1. 'i1 iL' . 0 1. 0 £.'. 0 1. 0 i . 0 1. 0 i. 0 1. C1 C. . 0 1. 0 ii. 0 1. C' c'. 0 i. 0 £'. C1 1

PIGOFE B.10 ZNR7T QAZA POWW:R&D DCFBSE DATA

BCINEERIMS BCPDCE MIA MO

79

G&Q EXPENSE

YEPR«*c.3A5t-7e9

101 11 £121415

% PMTS

flPX.< K » >500.0500.0500 . 050O. 050O. 0500.050O. 050O. 05OO. 05OO. 0500. 050O. O50O. 050O. 05OO. 0

1

W I N . U N C E R T .< K « > PROFILE500. 0 15OO. <500. t.500. «500. C500. <500. •500. <500. «500. (500. »500. <500. <500. <

i i

> 1> 1> 11 1> i

' 1» 1> 1> 1

•> 1' 1> 1

500. «.» 1

M P X . W I N . U N C E R T .( % ) ( X ) P R O F I L E

0. 00. O0.07. 31. 30. 80.8O. fc0.60. 70. 81. O1 . 01. 4£. 3

0. 00. 00. 07.31. 20.80.80. 60. £0. 70.61 . 01. 01. 4

£. 3

111111111111:ii

C373 CPPITPL EXPENDIOTHER CPPITPL EX

MPX. WIN.

TURE DPTPPENDITURES

UNCERT.YEflR

1•z.34e-

—i£763101 1121 w

14

15

<K«)H) o.o55OO. O10560. 0

0. OO. 0

34 1O. 0£090. 0

0. 00. 00. 00. 0o. oO. 0o. oO. 0

<K»)(2) 0.04500. O8640. O

0. 00. 0

£730. O1710. 0

0. O0. 00. 00. 00. «>0. O

0. « »0. "

PROFILE(3) 1

131311

131311111111

COST SPREADING FUNCTIONS

•3. eftUMCH COST5" INSJRPNCE6. S/C RECUR COST

7 NONRECUR COST

135. £10O. 0£0. 0

73. O

0. 048.5

£1.0

YEPR

9.8O. 0

0. 0

40. 00.00. O

0.0

0. 00. 00. 0

0. 0

FIGOPE B.1I DBOT DK» PORttT: GfcA DCPB6E LATA, CAPTTALDM*, MD OD6T SPREAD DC RUCTIONS EKT

80

2. KIM. (K$) ..... . ...... Minimum estimated annual expense (fixedcomponent) expressed as a dollar amount(in t-hmicjinrtg of dollars) .

3. ONCEKT. PROFILE ...... The name (from screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe fixed component of the annualexpense.

4. MAX. (%) ............. Maximum estimated annual expense(variable component) expressed as a

of revenue.

5. MIN. (%} ..... . ....... Minimi) estimated annual expense(variable component) expressed as apercentage of revenue.

6. UNCEKT. PROFILE ...... The name (from screen [38]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated withthe variable (I) component of the annualexpense.

7. SUM K$ i % AMIS ...... When set equal to 0, the expense is thelarger of the fixed and variablecomponents. When set equal to I, theexpense is the sum of the fixed andvariable components.

Screen 1371 - Capital Expenditure Pata (Refer to Figure B.ll)

Spacecraft recurring cost, launch cost and other launch

related costs are treated as capital expenditures (i.e.,

depreciated). These costs occur as a result of satellite

purchases and launches and therefore their timing depends upon

the timing of launches which is basically demand driven. There

may be other capital expenditures that are not directly related

to satellite launches (for example, the acquisition of TTfrC

ground terminals) . These may be specified as dollar amounts

(i.e., range of uncertainty} in the year of acquisition. Cost

spreading is not ucnsed upon these expenditures which are

depreciated starting in the year of acquisition.

81

OTHER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

1. KftX. (K$) ............ Maximum estimated 'other* capitalexpenditure each year of the analysis

of dollars) .

2. KIN. (K$) ........ ....Minimum estimated 'other* capitalexpenditure each year of the analysis

of dollars) .

3. CNCERT. PROFILE ...... The name (from screen 138]) of theuncertainty profile to be associated witheach year's •other" capital expenditures.

Cost spreading functions may be imposed upon launch cost,

insurance cost, spacecraft unit recurring cost and nonrecurring

costs. Hie cost spreading is performed in two different ways: in

relative time (i.e./ relative to when launches occur) and in

absolute time. Launch, insurance and spacecraft recurring cost

are spread backward in time relative to the year of launch.

Thus, year 1 is the year that a launch takes place, year 2 is the

year prior to launch, year 3 is two years prior to launch, etc.

Nonrecurring costs are spread in absolute time with a specified

percentage of the nonrecurring costs occurring in year 1, year 2,

etc. of the analysis.

COST SPREADING FUNCTIONS ,

4. LAUNCH COST .......... The percentage of the launch cost spenteach year relative to the year of launch.Year 1 is the year of launch, year 2 isthe year prior to launch, etc.

5. INSURANCE ............ The percfTteqf of the insurance costspent each year relative to the year oflaunch. Year 1 is the year of launch,year 2 is the year prior to launch, etc.

6. S/C RECUR Q06T ....... The percentage of the spacecraftrecurring cost spent each year relativeto the year of launch. Year 1 is theyear of launch, year 2 is the year priorto launch, etc.

7. NQNRDCUR 006T ........ The percentage of the nonrecurring cost

82

ORIGINAL PAGE fSPOOR QUALITY

UNCERTAINTY PROFILEPROFILE

I ~

1111111

11*

1

•=•

. D.1c.^*w

45£.78301£'w

4

567830

0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.

1503O3035£l£3£5161£15£O151006051O03050303

0.0.o.o.o.0.0.«>.".' '.".o.0.o.0.o.o.o.0.o.

££5-.C..J

30403£3OT="• »J

43wC

34£OC. w

-•cC -J-.e-.-j

£5£030£0£007

PROFI

0000o0000o0000000000

LE

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

*

•

•

315£02015£7£3£5£<«3£3720££3034

40403450548'.)

— '»W iW-l— W" 1 "1

INTERVAL

0.0.O.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.

<u c^ taj

O7 0. 0315 0. 1013 0.0707 i15 ^16 (10 i09 i

• £• i

£'O i

£5 i

). 03>. 05,'. 06». 05i. 0£1 . 0 T'. 0£' . £ O'. 3 5) . 1 O

£5 0. 06£5 0. 05c'O 0. 103O 0. 03£O 0. '"'5£0 0. 0207. 0. v3

FIGUFE B.12 INPUT DMA FOfWAT: ONOEFIWJfnr PROFILE DATA

83

spent each year with year 1 being thefirst year of the analysis, year 2 thesecond year of the analysis, etc.

Screen f381 - ttreertainty Profile Data (Refer to Figure B.12)

The uncertainty profiles represent the probability density

functions that may be used for one or more of the uncertainty

variables. They represent the probability distributions in the

range of uncertainty. The range of uncertainty is in turn

segmented into five equal intervals. Thus, for Uncertainty

Profile ffl there is a O.SO chance of selecting a value in the

first of the five equal intervals, 0.25 chance of selecting a

value in the second of the five equal intervals, etc. Linear

interpolation is used to select a specific value within each

interval.

All of the uncertainty profile data may be changed to create

new uncertainty profiles. caution; each iot ""«*" add tfi .unity!

In other words, the probabilities associated with each profile

Bust add to 1.00. Twenty uncertainty profiles are stored in the

data base. However a total of thirty (30) profiles are available

for use with profiles 121 to 130 being mirror images of profiles

1 through 10, respectively.

B.4 Imports

The input data is provided via LOTOS 123 and used to create

a data file which is read by the DGKSAT II financial simulation

model programmed in FORTRAN. After the FORTRAN confutations are

completed a number of reports are printed. These include a

proforma income statement (Figure B. 13), a cash flow projection

(Figure B.14), a probability distribution of annual launch

84

attempts (Figure B.15) and a probability distribution of annual

spacecraft purchases (Figure B.16).

The profonna incase statement and cash flow projections

contain a coluon for each year of the analysis. All numbers are

in thnupfllYJS of dollars except where otherwise specifically

indicated. All numbers are expected values with the exception of

those narked with an asterik (*) which designates these as

standard deviations. In addition, the first page of the cash

flow projection also contains the net present value as confuted

at each of the discount rates specified via the input data. The

present value is indicated as Net Present Value "A", Net Present

Value "B" and Net Present Value. NPV 'A* represents the present

value contribution during the specific years of the analysis, NPV

"B* represents the infinite horizon contribution (i.e., after the

specific years of the analysis) to present value, and NPV

represents the sun of NPV "A" and NPV *B". The standard

deviation is that of NPV.

The Probability of Annual Launch Attempts (Figure B.15) and

the Probability of Annual Spacecraft Purchases (Figure B.16)

indicate the launch attenxjJts and spacecraft purchase statistics

for each year of the analysis. Ihe numbers in the table

represent the probability of the specific number of events

indicated in the left-hand scale (thus the data in the tables

represent the probability density functions of annual launch

attempts and spacecraft purchases). Also indicated are the

expected or average number of annual launch attenpts and

spacecraft purchases and the associated standard deviations.

85

PROFORMA INCOME STATEMENT <• THOUSANDS)

PROTECTEDPIWTECTED/PREEHPT.UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEHPT.PREEMPTIBLE

TOTM. REVENUE

0.o.0.o.0.

0. •

0.0.0.0.0.

0.*

YEAR

3

O.0.o.0.o.

0. •

9373.O.O.

1277.10651.

•

62770.0.0.

3333.66023.

17871.•

LAUNCH OPERATIONS O. 0.LAUNCH INSURANCE O. 0.SATELLITE o. o.OTHER o. «is.

DEPRECIATION EXPENSE 0. 413.S/C CONTROL OPERATIONS 0. 0.ENGINEERING EXPENSE tooo. 1000.RESEARCH t DEVELOPMENT 1OOO. 1OOO.

TOTAL OPERATIONS EXPENSE 2OOO. 8413.o.» 20. •

0.o.0.

1228.1228.

O.1OOO.1OOO.3*28.48. •

1816.733.3220.1228.7016.714.lOOO.1000.9730.2913. •

4O43.1623.6826.1228.13720.1717.1362.I38c.18201.3124. •

6ROSS MARGIN <•> -2000.0. •

-2413.20. •

-3228.48.*

921.8130.•

47824.16009.*

S/C NONRECURRING COST6 I A EXPENSEDEiT SERVICE EXPENSE

16766.300.

O.

4437.300.

1322.

O.300.

4993.

0.1277.

13063.

0.133*.

20163.

BEFORE TAX PROFITINCOME TAXINVESTMENT TAX CREDITAFTER TAX PROFIT

-19266.-6936.

O.-12330.

386. •

-8693.-3130.

49«.-3066.196.•

-8723.-3140.

973.-4608.710. •

-13420.-4831.

3788.-2601.2230.•

26302.9469.6704.

23337.8337.«

RETURN ON ASSETS (»> -4267.O. •

-31.34. •

-3.1. •

-2.2. •

13.3. «

RETURN ON SALES <»> O. 0.0. •

0.0. •

-14.23. •

34.

12. «

STANDARD DEVIATION

FIGURE B.13 PROFOFMA LNOdC STATEMENT

86

PROFORHA INCOK STATEHEWT (• THOUSANDS)


PROTECTEDPROTECTED/PREEMPT.UNPROTECTED/NON-PRE£mPT.

TOTAL REVENUE

YEAR

t

61095.0.0.

6213.67309.

11566. •

92431.O.0.

56S«.9«269.

6694.*

1*3799.0.0.

3793.137592.15679. •

135767.0.O.

1923.137690.15522. «

1O

136973.0.0.

30*5.

147*9.•

LAUNCH OPERATIONS 4*49. 6496. 7034. 7422. 76Ofe.LAUNCH INSURANCE 1774. 25O4. 269O. 2622. 295O.SATELLITE 7432. 1O273. 1O964. 11462. 1195«.OTHER 1487. J6*«. 1646. 1646. 1646.

DEPRECIATION EXPENSE 15142. 2O923. 22357. 23374. 2«3fc3.8/C CONTROL OPERATIONS 1404. 1966. 2477. £476. 25O«.EMCINEERIMB EXPENSE 1749. i9€£. 27sa. 2754. et,*o.RESEARCH I DEVELOPMENT 1749. 1966. 27S2. 2754. 2640.

TOTAL OPERATIONS EXPENSE 2C124. 24AE2. 30337. 3136O. 32152.1953.* 3532.* 3A6t,. • 4«,0. • 5759..

8ROSS (•) 47164.11415.i

71*67.100M. •

1072*5.16690. •

106330.16196. <

99666.16533.•

S/C NONRECURRING COST0 t A EXPENSEDEBT SERVICE EXPENSE

O.1 196.

21B46.

O.1266.

21135.

O.1326.

16073.

0.1326.

1O611.

0.l*e*.ISSfc.


44140.15691.1474.

29724.

7l4fc.«

49046.17656.

5613.37203.6947.*

87657.

31626.1433.

57641.11949. •

94193.33909.1O17.

61301.

14406. •

9e::&.3*74fc.

969.62759.159*7. •

RETURN ON ASSETS (*> 15.4. •

17.4. •

26.6. •

32.10. • 13. •

RETURN ON SALXS <«> 33.7. «

37.6. •

41.6. •

44.

6. •47.

10. <

• STANDARD DEVIATION

PIGOPE B.13 PBGFORXA DJCOC STHQCNT (OGNTDUED)

87

PROFORNA INCOME STATEMENT (• THOUSANDS)

11

YEAR

13 14 IS

PROTECTEDPROTECTED/PREEMPT.UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPT.PREEMPTIBLE

TOTAL REVENUE

183060.o.o.

1693.186779.170*6. •

110119.0.0.

943.111063.80016.*

97309.0.0.

455.97965.

84366. •

103237.O.O.

SOB.1037*5.£3501. •

94713.0.0.

860.94936.

30996.*

LAUNCH OPERATIONSLAUNCH INSURANCESATELLITEOTHER

DEPRECIATION EXPENSES/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING ElPENSERESEARCH « DEVELOPMENT

TOTAL OPERATIONS EXPENSE

•80S.3O68.18448.1646.83377.8668.8S36.8536.33111.644O. •

•988.33 IS.13893.1646.

87176.8SS4.8882.8888.34176.7539. •

10366.3761.14978.1646.30766.8449.1966.1966.37JSO.6166.*

10186.3538.13355.1833.86447.8905.8079.8079.33509.6806. <

6109.8787.10164.48O.

81440.3385.1986.1986.86617.7771.*

GROSS MARGIN (•) 93666.81097.*

76665.83364. •

60615.83686.«

66236.85837.*

66379.30976.*

6/C NONRECURRING COSTS » A EXPENSEDEBT SERVICE EXPENSE

O.1314.-7800.

0.1611.

-15669.

O.146O.

-83O94.

0.1958.

-89963.

O.3855.

-36993.

TAX PROFITINCOME TAXINVESTMENT TAX CREDITAFTER TAX PROFIT

99333.35767.

1015.646O1.

16939. •

91143.38611.

16O1.60133.

8O464. •

68489.89674.3590.

36344.81686.*

96866.34656.3668.

65492.83108. •

1081 17.36768.

510.6SSfcJ.

86668. •

RETURN ON ASSETS («> 4O.16. •

37.17.*

35.17.*

48.16. •

46.81.*

RETURN ON SALES («> 30.13. •

S3.16. •

56.84.*

68.81. •

69.40. •


PIGUPE B.13 PROFOFHA DJOOME STMQeNT (ODNTINUH))

88

ORIGINAL PAGE rsCASH FLOW PROJECTION (• THOUSANDS I • F POOR

YEAR

1 8 3 4

AFTER TAX PROFIT 0. 0. 0. I.INCREASE IN POVABVES 1599. 1416. 32O6. 540. 13O.DECREASE IN RECEIVABLES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.DECREASE IN CASH 0. IS. O. 22. 2OO.DEPRECIATION 0. 413. 1226. 7016. 13720.

TOTAL CASH INFLOW 1599. 1»47. 4436. 7579. 37713.

LOSS 13330. 5066. 46O8. 2»O2. 136.DECREASE IN POYABLES 0. »3. O. 123. 1107.INCREASE IN RECEIVABLES 0. O. 0. 1779. 95*6-INCREASE IN CASH 289. 236. S8O. 96. 33.CAPITAL EXPENDITURES O. £7047. 66463. 61946. 41339.

TOTBL CASH OUTFLOM 1Z619. 38433. 7167J. 66747. 5173*.

NET CASH FLOW -1102O. -3O6O6. -67233. -39168. -14019.323.* 9223.* 11278.* 125O3. • 21276.*

INDEBTEDNESS 11O2O. 41626. 1O6861. 168028. 182047.523.* 9247.* 19933.* 17476.* 195**.*

1 2 3 * 5

DISCOUNT RfiTE (*) 10. 13. 2O. 25. »C.

NET PRESENT VALUE -ft- 71793. 11266. -2O471. -3669:. -476£3.NET PRESENT VAuJE 'B- 1858*1. 6O637. 23C9*. 961*. 96-.

NET PRESENT VAÛE 257636. 72105. 2633. -37076. -46703.JO3318.* 55922.* 35»O7.• 2*38*.• 1O33!.»


PIGDFE B.14 CASH PLOW HCJBCnOK

89

CASH FLOW PROJECTION <• THOUSANDS)

YEAR

11 18 13 1* IS

AFTER TAX PROFIT 64666. 6O3S3. 96679. 45717. 66834.INCREASE IN PAYABLES 837. 3J4. 888. It. 0.DECREASE IN RECEIVABLES 1413. JO96. 34O3. 17O9. 8779.DECREASE IN CASH 73. 63. 136. 314. 333.DEPRECIATION 83377. 27176. 3O766. 86447. 81440.

TOTAL CASH INFLOW 91792. 91826. 918O6. 96£O1. 90703.

LOSS 67. 820. 333. 884. 369.DECREASE IN PAYABLES 414. 36O. 738. 1733. 16*3.INCREASE IN RECEIVABLES 540. 473. 1816. 8674. 1316.INCREASE IN CAS* 43. 96. 40. 3. o.CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 16*71. 89666. 31437. 16477. 166£.

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW • 19333. 31016. 336OO. 81113. 3398.

NET CASH FLOW 78836. 6021O. 57409. 75O66. 63393.82669.* 82774.* 8465O. • 21511.• 20163.*

INDEBTEDNESS -132239. -192449. -849656. -324945. -410339.115469.* 186627.* 136610.* 15O465.• 164858.*

CASH FLOW PROJECTION (• THOUSANDS)

YEAR

6 7 6 9 10

AFTER TAX PROFIT 29765. 37216. 57661. 613O2. 62792.INCREASE IN PAYABLES 871. 831. 31. 63. 1O*.DECREASE IN RECEIVABLES 69. 69. 31. 636. 146*.DECREASE IN CASn 110. 1O7. 303. 146. 131.DEPRECIATION 15142. 8O923. 82357. 83374. 2*363.

TOTAL CASH INFLOW 45357. 56567. 60362. 65764. 66655.

LOSS *1. 13. O. 1. 3*.DECREASE IN PAYABLES 610. 592. 1676. 616. 72fc.INCREASE IN RECEIVABLES 362*. 1923. 639*. 673. 517.INCREASE IN CASH 49. 42. 6. IS. 19.CAPITA^ EXPENDITURES 35111. 3O476. 11593. 1OO17. 11SOS.

TOTAc CASH OUTFLOW 3*433. 33O4&. 19669. 11723. 128O*.

NET CASH FLOW 3922. 85521. 6O514. 74O41. 76O51.19906.* 17266.* 21472.* 82369.* 219OC.<

INDEBTEDNESS 176125. 15O6O4. 9OO91. 16O49. -6OOC1.34*76.* 479O6.• 63213.* 61*60.* 9*935.<

• STANDARD DEVIATION .

FIGQPE B.14 CASE PLOW PKXTBCT1CH (OGKTINJU))

90

LAUNCHATTEMPTS

PROBABILITY or ANNUAL LAUNCH ATTEMPTS

PROBABILITY OFINDICATED QUANTITV <P£RCENT>

ORIGINAL PAGE ISOf POOR QUALITY

0967654,

3Z10

0000o00000

100

00000000o0

iOO

0000o000o0

IOO

00oo0oo00

too0

o0o0o000

166£0

o0o00000t

eo79

o0o00001

11690

o0o000o0£

Sf>Ti

YEAR

AVERAGEVALUE .00 .00 .00 J. OO 1.10 .30

DEVIATION .00 .00 .00 .00 .3* .51

PROBABILITY OF ANNUAL LAUNCH ATTEMPTS

L.AJNC*ATTEMPTS

PROBABILITY OFINDICATED QUANTITY (PERCENT)

109e7£>s4

3S1o

000o0000sIB60

0000000oe1761

OOOOOo0o1

1960

00ooo0004

3066

0OOo0oo£14

47

3«

0000000zIS49

3*

0Oooo00o1

1069

YEAR 1O 1 1 13 IS

AVERAGEVAuUE .21 .60 .65

STANDARDDEVIATION .57 .75 75 .34

FIGDPE B.15 PTCBABILm OF MHJAL LMNCB WTCKPTS

91

NUM»E« orSPACECRAFT

PROBABILITY OF ANNUAL SPACECRAFT PURCHASES

PROBABILITY OPINDICATED QUANTITY (PERCENT)


109

•765*3£1O .

000000O000

100

OO00O0O00O

100

0OO00O0000

100

0OO0OO00O94

6

00OO0OO016799

00OO00OO1

19so

00O0OOO110636

0OoOoo0o1

2574

YEAR

OVERA6E.00 .00 .00 .94 1. 11 . 21 1.05 .26

STANDARDDEVIATION .00 . OO ,OO .84 . 44 .43 .43 .49

PROBABILITY OF ANNUAL. SPACECRAFT PUMOttSCS

NUMBER OFSPACECRAFT


109&7&54

;, 321O

0O0oo0o021762

000o00o01

176c

00o00o0o1

1661

O00Ooo0p4

2666

0000000£u4542

000Oo00

-£1447

36

0O000c0o1

1090

YEAR 10 11 13 14 15

OVERAGEVALUE .20 .20 .20 .37 . 74 . 60 . 11

STANDARDDEVIATION .43 .42 .S7 .73 . 74 .33

FIGURE B.16 PRCBABILmr OP AMBAL SPACBOUtfT KJKSASES

APPENDIX C

FSS AJO DBS BASE CASE DATA BASESANDASSOCLATED FROPOWfc INCOME

FRQ7ECCTGNS, CASHFLOW PRQJECT1CNS,AN) LAONCfl AM) SPACECRAFT STATISTICS

FSS DATA AM) REPORTS(BASE CASE)

C1DNO. YRS. ANALYZEDMAX. II OPER. SPTSLAUNCH DATES (YRS)

GLOBAL DATA (SYSTEM)

SATELLITESATELLITESATELLITESATELLITESATELLITE

LAUNCHMAX.

NO. 1NO. £NO. 3NO. 4NO. 5

DELAYSDELAY(YRS)

MIN. DELAY(YRS)UNCERT. PROFILE

LEO TO GEOTRANSFER TIME -(YRS 1 THRU 15)

NO. SIMLJL. RUNS

153

5.57.50.00.0

0.80.5£

0. £5O. 25O. £51OOO

0. £5O. £50. £5

0.850. £5

0.£50.£5O. £5

0.O.0.

C2DDEBT SVC INT RT % 12.EFFECT TAX RATE * 36.INVEST TAX CRDT X 10.TAX CREDIT ON ...LAUNCH COSTINSURANCE COSTS/C RECUR. COSTOTHER CAP. EXP.PAYABLES (X EXP. ) 6.RCVS (* REV. ) 16,CASH (X EXP. ) 1.INSUR? <O*N/1=Y)S/C LEARN. RATE % 88,DEPRECIATION LIFE (YRS)LAUNCH,INS.,S/C 1OOTHER CAP. EXP. 1£

DISCOUNT RATE (X) 10.0

GLOBAL DATfi (FINANCIAL)O0O

11113751O

0, 0

£0. 0 40. 0

93

C31NARROW BAND

NO. OF GROUPSNO. TRANS/GRPSPARE TRONS/GRPMEAN TME FAIL-YREXP. WEAROUT-YRSSTD WEAROUT-YRS

WIDE BANDNO. OF GROUPSNO. TRANS/GRPSPARE TRANS/GRPMEAN TME FAIL-YREXP. WEAROUT-YRSSTD WEAROUT-YRS

W/N BAND REL IMP.TRNSPNDR THRSHLD

SATELLITE NO.SATELLITE NO.SATELLITE NO.SATELLITE NO.SATELLITE NO.

TRANSPONDER DATA

RS

RS

•

12345

000

0.00.00.0

1*16

4feO. O

15.01.0

1RELAUNCH

15151500

C43

MEAN TME FAIL-YREXP. WEAROUT-YRSSTD WEAROUT-YRS

SPACECRAFT SUPPORTSUBSYSTEM

SUBSYSTEM DATA

POWER25O. 0

15. O1.0

AVCS160.0

8. O0. 5

TT4C STRUCTURE250.0 1000.0

1.0 1.0

OTHER1000. 0

£0.01 . O

94

C53

PROBABILITY OF:

BOOSTER SUCCESSORB SUC-NO ABORTP/L OK FINAL ORBPRPLSN MOD CKOUTXFER LEO TO GEOORB RCVRY-ABORTORB RCVRY-B FAILORB RCVRY-FLT OK

MAX LNCH COST M*WIN LNCH COST M*LNCH CST UNCRT PF

LAUNCH SCENARIO DATAYEAR

2 3 4

0.9950.9950. 95O0.9500.9500.9900.9900.99921.79821.798

1

0.9950.9950. 950O. 3500.9500.9900.9300.99321. 79821.798

1

0.995O. 995O. 95OO. 950O. 9500.9900.9900.99321. 73621.738

1

0.3950.9950.95O0.9500.9500. 99O0.3900.39321.79821.798

1

0.3950. 3350.950O. 9500. 9500. 990O. 39O0.99321. 79621.738

1

C53

PROBABILITY OFi


MAX LNCH COST M*WIN LNCH COST M*LNCH CST UNCRT PF


7 8 9 10

0. 9950.9950.9500.9500. 9500. 9900.9900.99921.79621.798

1

0.9950.9950.9500.9500. 950O.9900. 9900.999£1. 79821.738

1

0.9950.9950.9500.950O. 9500.9900. 9300.993

£1. 79621.796

1

0.3950.9950.95O0.3500. 95O0. 9900.9900.93321.79821.796

1

0. 9950.995O.95O0.3500. 9500. 9900. 9900. 99921. 79S£1.736

1

C53

PROBABILITY OF:


MAX LNCH COST W»WIN LNCH COST M»LNCH CST UNCRT PF

11


13 1<» 15

0.9950.3950. 9500.9500. 9500.9300. 9900.99921.79621.796

1

0.9350.9950. 9500.9500. 9500.9900. 9900.99981.79621.796

1

0. 9950.9950.9500.9500.9500.9300. 9900.99921.79621.798

1

0.9350.9950. 95O0.9500. 95O0.9900. 99O0. 99921.79821.798

1

0. 9950. 9950.9500. 95O0. 950O.99O0. 9900.99321. 79821. 796

1

95

C63

C7D

YEAR1234567a9101112131415

YEAR12

7e91O1112131415

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE tlSATELLITE

NARROW-BANDWAX.DEMAND

•

OOO0OOOOO0O00O0

MIN.DEMAND

000000000000000

DEMAND:

UNCERT.PROFILE

00000000OO00OO0

« 1WIDE-BAND

MAX.DEMAND

OOO813151617IB192020202020

MIN.DEMAND

O0O&1011121212121212121212

UNCERT.PROFILE

0o01

B143e&77777

SERVICE TYPE »1SATELLITE

NARROW-BANDMAX.

DEMAND000OOO0O00O0O00

MIN.DEMAND

000000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0000000O0000000

* 2WI

MAX.DEMAND

000O7

11141617181920202020

DE-BANDMIN.

DEMANDO0O056101£1212!£'12121212

UNCERT.PROFILE

0Oc044-

ei*c

£t/777

96

183 DEMANDS SERVICE TYPE »1SATELLITE « 3


C93

YEAR12

67e9101118131415

YEAR1234567e9101112131415

MAX.DEMAND

000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

000000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

MAX.DEMAND

00000O010151617161920£0

MIN.DEMAND

0000000612121212121212

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O000OO7IS14s6677

DEMANDi SERVICE TYPE »1SATELLITE

NARROU-BANDMAX.

DEMAND0O00000000O0000

MIN.DEMAND

000000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

OO0OOOOOO0OOO0O

« 4WIDE-BAND

MAX.DEMAND

O000000O0O00000

MIN.DEMAND

0O0000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0("•OOOO0c0O0O0O0

. 97

C 1 0 D

YEAR1

5'6769

101 112131415

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE «1SATELLITE * 5

NARROW-BANDMAX. WIN. UNCERT.

DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILEMAX.

WIDE-BANDMIN. UNCERT.

o00000000000000

0o000oo000oo000

o00000000oo0oo0

000000000000000

o0000o00o00000o

0o0o0o0o0G0o0oo

DEMANDi SERVICE TYPE 112SATELLITE * 1

YEAR12

£>7e9

101 112131415

NARROW-BANDMAX.DEMAND

0000000000o0000

MIN.DEMAND

O00000000o0oo00

UNCERT.PROFILE

000000000000000

WIDE-BANDMAX.

DEMAND000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

000-00O0O0000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0(['

cccf-

C-0'C!

cC'c0C-

98

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »2

YEAR12345&7e9101112131415

SATELLITE •NARROW- BAND WIDE-BAND

MAX.DEMAND

00O0000000000O0

WIN.DEMAND

0O000O0O0O0O0OO

UNCERT.PROFILE

0OOOO00O00000O0

MAX.DEMAND

O0O0O00O000O0O0

MIN.DEMAND

0O0O0O00OO00OOO

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0O000O0O0O0O0

C133 DEMANDt SERVICE TYPE »2SATELLITE * 3

YEAR12345&7e9101112131415


000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

00O000000000O0O

UNCERT.PROFILE

00000000000O000

WIDE-BANDMAX.

DEMAND00000000000O000

MIN.DEMAND

000OO0000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0OO•:c-oct\-

0C'co0oc

99

C14J DEMANDi SERVICE TYPE »£SATELLITE f 4-

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BOND

YEAR1234567a9

101112131415

CIS]

YEAR1234567a9

101112131415

MAX.DEMAND

O0O00

. O00O0O0000

MIN.DEMAND

O00000000000O00

UNCERT.PROFILE

O00O00000000O0O

MAX.DEMAND

0000OO0OO0O00O0

MIN.DEMAND

OOO00OOOOOOO0OO

UNCERT.PROFILE

000O0O000O0O000

DEMAND i SERVICE TYPE *2SATELLITE

NARROW-BANDMAX.

DEMANDO000O0O0OO00O0O

MIN.DEMAND

00O000OO0OO0O0O

UNCERT.PROFILE

000000000000000

* 5WIDE -BAND

MAX.DEMAND

000O00O0000OO00

MIN.DEMAND

0OOOO00O0000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O000O0000000O0

100

C1&]

YEAR123456789101112131415

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *3SATELLITE * 1

NARROW-BANDMAX. WIN. UNCERT. MAX.


DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE000o00o00000000

o0oo0o00oo0000o

000000000o00000

000000000000000

00000000000o000

0o0oooooooo0oo0

C173 DEMANDi SERVICE TYPE *3SATELLITE * £

YEAR1234567a91011IS131415


000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

0O00o000o0o0000

UNCERT.PROFILE

000000000000000

WIDE-BANDMAX.DEMAND

000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

00O000O00O0O0OO

UNCERT.PROFILE

OOoooooo0o0o0o0

101

CIS]

YEAR123456789101112131415

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »3SATELLITE • 3

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BANDMAX. MIN. UNCERT. MAX. WIN. UNCERT.

DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE000000000000000

00000ooo0000o00

000000000000000

000000000o000o0

0o0o00o00o0o000

0o000o0o0o0o000

C193 DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE f3SATELLITE « A

YEAR1234567e9101112131413

NARROW-BANDMAX.

DEMAND00000000000o0oo

MIN.DEMAND

0O00o0000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

O0000000000O0OO

WIDE-BANDMAX.

DEMAND0000o00oo00o000

MIN.DEMAND

0O0000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

O00o0ooo0ooo0o0

102

C203

YEAR1234567a9

1011121314IS

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »3SATELLITE « 5

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BANDMAX. MIN. UNCERT. MAX. MIN. UNCERT.DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE

00000000o000000

000o00000o00000

000000000000000

000000000000000

0000ooooo0oo000

000o0o000o00000

can .DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *4SATELLITE * 1

YEAR1&34

789101112131415

NARROW-BANDMAX.

DEMAND00Oo00000000o00

MIN.DEMAND

0OO000000O00000

UNCERT.PROFILE

000,0o0000000000

WIDE-BANDMAX.

DEMAND000344444444444

MIN.DEMAND

00O2222

. 22222222

UNCERT.PROFILE

0001222£2z»

22222

103

C223 DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »4SATELLITE * 2


C233

YEAR1234567B91O1112131415

YEAR1234567B9101112131415

MAX.DEMAND

0O000OOOOO00OOO

MIN.DEMAND

0000000O0000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0000O00000000

MAX. MIN.DEMAND DEMAND

000034444444444

0OO022222222222

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O00122c'2222'222

DEMANDS SERVICE TYPE *4SATELLITE

NARROW-BANDMAX.

DEMANDOOOO00OO0OO00OO

MIN.DEMAND

000,00000000000O

UNCERT.PROFILE

O000O000000O0OO

« 3WIDE-BAND


. . . . . P.000O0O34444444

OO00O0022222222

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0O0O012222222

104

YEAR123

6789101112131415

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE «4SATELLITE « 4

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BANDMAX. MIN. UNCERT. MAX. WIN. UNCERT.DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE

0000o0000o00000

000o0oo0oo0o000

00000o0oo00o00o

0o0b0000o000000

00000000o000000

000oooooooo00o0

C253 DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *4SATELLITE * 5

YEAR1234567a9101112131415


000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

00O0000oo000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

000o0o000o00000

WIDE-BANDMAX.DEMAND

000000000000000

MIN*DEMAND

0000O000000000O

UNCERT.PROFILE

OO00ooo0000ooo0

105

C263 PRICE (S /YR) : SERVICE TYPE »1NARROW-BAND WIDE-BAND

C27J

YEAR123456789

1011121314IS

YEAR123456789

1O1112131415

MAX.PRICE

00000OO000000O0

MIN.PRICE

OO0000O000000OO

UNCERT.PROFILE

O0O0000OO0000OO

MAX.PRICE

000

370037003€>OO3500340033003200310030OO30OO30003000

PRICE <«/YR) s SERVICE TYPENARROW-BAND

MAX.PRICE

00O00000OO00O00

MIN.PRICE

00OO00OO0O00OO0

UNCERT.PROFILE

O0OO0O0OO0OOOO0

MIN.PRICE

OOO

3330333O3240315O306O297028802790270027OO27002700

«2

UNCERT.PROFILE

O00666666666666

WIDE- BANDMAX.PRICE

0OO000O0OO00OO0

MIN.PRICE

OO0OOOOO0OOOOOO

UNCERT.PROFILE

OO0O0O000O0O000

106

C£6J PRICE <»/YR): SERVICE TYPE *3

YEAR123436789101112131415

MAX.PRICE

NARROW-BANDMIN. UNCERT.PRICE PROFILE

MAX.PRICE

WIDE-BANDMIN. UNCERT.PRICE PROFILE

00000o000000000

o000000o0000000

oooooo0ooo00ooo

0ooo00o0ooo0000

ooo000oo0oo0o00

o0000000o0o0o00

PRICE <*/YR): SERVICE TYPE *4NARROW-BAND WIDE-BAND

YEAR1234567891011ia1314IS

MAX.PRICE

O000000000

MIN.PRICE

0O0000O000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O00000000

MAX.PRICE

000

14501450145O1450145014501450

MIN.PRICE

00O

1305130513051305130513051305

UNCERT.PROFILE

000&6666&6

145O1450145O145O1450

13051305130513051305

107

C303 PRICE ELASTICITY DATA* DEMAND DECREASE RESULTING NARROW- WIDE-

FROM A 25% PRICE INCREASE BAND BAND1. PROTECTED 0.0 £5.02. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE 0.0 25. O3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTIBLE 0.0 25. O4. PREEMPTIBLE 0.0 25.0

C31] CORRELATION DATACORRELATION COEFFICIENT

TYPE OF SERVICEDEMAND DATA

1. PROTECTED2. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTIBLE4. PREEMPTIBLE

PRICE DATA1. PROTECTED2. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTIBLE4. PREEMPTIBLE

S/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING EXPENSER4D EXPENSEG&A EXPENSEOTHER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

NARROW-BAND

O0

0.00.0

0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.

00O08&8a

WIDE-BAND

0.80.80.80.8

0.8O.80.80.8

O. 8

C32]MAX.HIN.S/CHAX.MINI.s/cMflX.HIN.

COST/EXPENSE DATAS/C UNIT COST (Kt)S/C UNIT COST (Kt>

UNIT COST UNCERTAINTY PROFILES/C NONRECURRING COST <K»)S/C NONRECURRING COST (Kt)

NONREC. COSTINSURANCE *INSURANCE %

UNCERT. PROFILE

INSURANCE UNCERTAINTY PROFILE

4090O. 03640O. O

162500O. 019800.0

118.012.0

13

108

[333 COST/EXPENSE DATA (CONTINUED)S/C CONTROL OPERATIONS COST(X)


C343

YEAR1£3456789101112131415

SUM K» 4 X AMTS

C353

YEAR1234567a9101112131415

SUM K* i * AMTS

MAX. MIN.COST(X) COST<X)

0.0 0. 0O.O O. O0.0 O.O6.7 6. 72.6 2.61.7 1.72.0 2.01.8 1.81.8 1.81.9 1.92. 1 2. 12.3 2.32.5 2.52. 8 2. 83.5 3.5

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

ENGINEERING EXPENSEMAX.(K*>1OOO. O100O. 010OO. 01000.01OOO.O1OOO. 0100O. 01OOO.O1000.010OO. 01000.0IOOO. 0100O.O1000.0100O.O

0

MAX.(Kt)10OO.O1OOO.O10OO.O10OO. 01OOO.O10OO. 010OO. 0100O.O10OO.O10OO.O100O. 01OOO.O10OO. 01000.01OOO.O

0

MIN.<K*>1OOO.O1000.01OOO. 01000.01OOO. 01OOO. 01000.0IOOO. 01000. 0IOOO. 01000.0IOOO. 0IOOO. 0IOOO. 010OO.O

MIN.<K«)IOOO. OIOOO. OIOOO. 0IOOO. O1000.010OO.O1OOO.O1000.01000.01000.OIOOO. 01OOO.OIOOO. 01000.0IOOO. 0

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

R*DUNCERT.PROFILE

111111

MAX.<*)

2.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.0

EXPENSEMAX.<*)

2.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.0

MIN.<*)

2.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.0

MIN.<X>

2.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.0

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

109

C363

YEPR1£34567a31011121314IS

SUM K» & % AMTS

C373

G*A EXPENSEMAX.<K»)50O.O50O. O5OO.O50O. O5OO.O500. O500.0500.0500.0500.050O.65OO. O5OO.O5OO. O50O.O

14

CAPITAL

MIN.(K«)500.0500.0500.0500.0500.0500.050O. 05OO. O50O. 050O. 0500.0500.05OO.O5OO. O500.0

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

MAX.(*>

0.00.00.07.31.30.80.80.60.60.70.81.01.01.42.9

MIN.<*)

0.00.00.07.31.3o. a0.80.60.60.70.81.01.01.42.9

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

EXPENDITURE DATAOTHER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

YEAR1£345£7a3101112131415

COST SPREADING

LAUNCH COSTINSURANCE

MAX.(K«)

0.0550O. O10560.0

0. O0.0

341O.O209O.O

0.00.0O. OO. 0O. O0.0O. Oo.o

FUNCTIONS

135.2100.0

S/C RECUR COST 20. O

MIN.<K*>

0.04500. O8640. 0

0. 0o.o

279O. 01710. O

O.O0.00.00.0O.O0.0O.O0.0

255.0O.O48.5

UNCERT.PROFILE

1131311131311111111

YEAR3

9. ao.o31.5

- --

40.00.0o.o

50.0O.O0.0

NONRECUR COST 79.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 O.O

no

[383 UNCERTAINTY PROFILE DftTflPROFILE PROFILE INTERVAL

I.D.1£345&7a91011121314151617IB19£0

10.500.300. 3OO. 350.210. £30. £50. 160. 120. 150.£O0. 15O. 1O0.080.050. 100.030.05O. 030.03

£0. £50. £50.300. 400. 3£0. 3O0. 350. 490. 3£0.34O.£00. ££0. £50. £50. £50. £00.300. £O0. £00.07

30. 150. £00. £00. 150. £70. £30. £50. £40. 3£0.370.£O0.260.300.340. 4O0.400.340.500.540.80

40.070. 150. 130.070. 150. 160. 100.090. 170. 120.200.220. £50. £50. £5O. £O0.30O. £00. £00.07

50.030. 1O0. 07O.O30.05O.080. 050. 0£0.070. 0£0. £00. 150. 1O0.080.050. 1O0.030. O50.030.03

111

INCOME STflTEMENT (* THOUSPNDS)

YEPR

3

PROJECTEDPROTECTED/ PREEMPT.L'NPROT£CTED/NON-PREEMPT.

TO'flL. REVENUE

o.0.o.o.o.o. *

0.0.o.o.o.

o. *

0.0.0.0.0.

o. »

3889.O.O.

1352.11241.44OO. » •

6*773.O.O.

3320.68098.16029.*

•_«UNCH OPERATIONSLflUNCH INSURANCE

OTHERDEPRECIATION EXPENSES/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING EXPENSERESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

TOTftL. OPERftTIONS EXPENSE

0.o.o.o.o.0.

1OOO.1000.2OOO.o. •

o.0.0.

416.416.

O.1000.100O.£416.20.*

0.0.O.

1229.1229.

0.1OOO.1OOO.3229.48. »

19O3.736.3360.1229.73O8.753.1OOO.1OOO.1OO61.2610. *

4028.1630.68O2.1229.13689.1771.14O6.1406.18272.2992. «

GROSS MftRGIN («) -200O.0. »

•2416.20. *

•3229.48. *

1180.1923. *

49826.14148.<

S/C NONRECURRING COSTG & 0 EXPENSEDEBT SERVICE EXPENSE

16756.500.

O.

4454.500.1322.

O.5OO.il 17.

U.1321.13305.

1385.20225.

BEFORE TPX PROFITINCOME TftxINVESTMENT TfiX CREDITftFTER TflX PROFIT

13256.-6932.

O.12324.591. *

-8692.-3129.499.

-5O64.199. *

-6846.-3185.976.

-4686.634. »

-13445.-4640.6079.-2526.2023. »

28215.10157.6331.24433.7551. »

RETURN ON fiSSETS <*> -4267.O. •

-27.30. • 1. * 2. *

13.4. *

RETURN ON SOLES (*) o.o. •

o.o.«

o.o. • 18. •

3<*.

D E V I f t T I O N 112

PROFORMO INCOME STATEMENT <» THOUSftNDS) ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALfTY


TQTPL REVENUE

LPUNCH OPERPTIONSLftUNCH INSURPNCESPTELLITEOTHER

DEPRECIATION EXPENSES/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING EXPENSERESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

TQTPL OPERATIONS EXPENSE

3ROSS MORGIN (*)

S/C NONRECURRING COSTS 4 ft EXPENSEC€BT SERVICE EXPENSE

BEFORE TPX PROFITINCOME TPXINVESTMENT TPX CREDITfiFTER TPX PROFIT

RETURN ON PSSETS <*>

RETURN ON SPuES (*>

82387.0.0.

6334.88782.1O464.*

4375.1753.7315.1488.14336.1509.1777.1777.

20OO1.1617.*

68781.99O3. «

0.1210.

£1529.

46O41.16575.1239.30766.5926.»

.3. »

34.6. *

7

92817.0.0.

6033.98855.8386. *

6343.2467.1OO44.1649.2O503.1377.1377.1977.

26434.2962.*

72421.8871.*

0.1291.

20471.

50660.18238.5598.38021.6161. *

18.4. *

38.4. •

YEOR

8

136146.0.0.

4035.140181.13416.*

6819.2633.1O674.1649.

21774.2523.28O4.28O4.29305.2347.*

110277.13896. •

0.1341.17079.

91857.33068.1272.

6O06O.9336. »

30.6. »

*«3.S.»

9

138503.O.O.

2231.14O734.12539. »

705O.2712.

1 O97 1 .1643.

22381.2533.2815.2815.3O544.3600. *

1 1 0 1 9 1 .14304. *

O.1344.9294.

99552.35833.607.

6432O.1 1 157. •

35.8. •

«5.6. •

10

131022.£.*,' .

3350.134372.12664. *

732£.2 BOS.

1 131*.1643.23094.2553.2687.2687.

, 31022.4504.*

103350.15346. •

0.1441.

-. • =•~£ 1 -».

1O21 24.36765.

713.66072.12725.*

40.11.*

<*3.7. »

• STPNDORD DEVIPTION113

PROFORMP INCOME STPTEMENT (* THQUSPNDS)


TQTPL REVENUE

LPUNCH OPERPTIONSLPUNCH INSURPNCESPTELLITEOTHER

DEPRECIPTION EXPENSES/C CONTROL OPERPTIONSENGINEERING EXPENSERESEPRCH ft DEVELOPMENT

TQTPL OPERATIONS EXPENSE

GROSS MPRGIN <*)

S/C NONRECURRING COSTG A P EXPENSEDEBT SERVICE EXPENSE

BEFORE TPX PROFITINCOME TPXINVESTMENT TPX CREDITfiFTER TPX PROFIT

RETURN ON PSSETS <X>

RETURN ON SPLES <*)

7601.8837.11647.1649.

£3794.£726.£596.£596.

31711.51O5.<

98076.17673. •

O.1538.-9977.

1O6515.38345.70O.

68870.1539£.*

44.14. •

5£.10.•

111137.0.O.

915.112052.18583. *

8155.308O.12303.1649.

251B7.2577.2241.2241.32247.6197.*

79805.2O468. *

O.1621.

-19215.

97399.35064.1393.63728.16885. *

40.15. »

56.12. •

97531.0.0.

545.98076.23226. •

9761.3611.14197.1649.23237.2452.1966.1966.

35621.6967. *

62455.£3480. »

O.1481.

-26639.

87613.. 3 1 54 : .

4O50.60122.18538. *

38.15. *

61.17. •

1O5444.0.0.

525.105963.23107. •

9417.3311.12578.1233.26539.£967.2i£3.2123.33752.7073. •

72216.2349O. •

O.1984.

-33662.

1O3895.37402.3797.70289.

1 958 1 . *

46.16. *

66.18. •

75O2.254£.3233.420.

I386c.3401.136*.1364.

27191.6700.«

69373.i8365.«

O.3318.

-42336.

103651.33474.

517.

7063<».22792.«

16.

• STPNDPRD DEVIATION 114

CASH FLOW PROJECTION (* THOUSANDS) ORIGINAL PAGE ISOF POOR QUALITY

AFTER TPX PROFITINCREASE IN PAYABLESDECREASE IN RECEIVABLESDECREASE IN CASHDEPRECIATION

TQTft|_ CASH INFLOW

LOSSDECREASE IN PAYPBLESINCREASE IN RECEIVABLESINCREASE IN CASHCAPITAL EXPENDITURES

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW

NET CASH FLOW

INDEBTEDNESS

O.O.

283.O.

12612.

•11014.528. »

11014.528. •

0.1489.

O.12.

416.1916.

5064.64.0.

269.28148.33544.

31628.8243. »

42642.8252. *

0.3203.

0.O.

1229.4422.

4£S6.0.0.

579.67397.72661.

-68229.9908. »

110872.17582. *

O.388.O.23.

7308.77:8.

2526.126.

1877.70.

60793.65392.

-57674.1 1262. »

168545.15468. *

24540.78.2.

215.13689.38525.

101.1 183.3438.

14.38588.43330.

-10865.1811O. <

17941 1.15185. <

DISCOUNT RATE <X> 10. 15. 20. 4O.

PRESENT VALUE "A1

NET PRESENT VALUE "&'8651O.192651.

21O54.63132.

-138O1.23965. 9977.

-460O6.'; o 17.

NET PRESENT VALUE 279361.83052.«

84186.443O4.<

1O164.27649.*

-22078.18763.•

-44989.7874.<

115

CASH FLOW PROJECTION (* THOUSANDS)

AFTER TAX PROFIT 3O784. 38O21.INCREASE IN PAYABLES 251. 188.DECREASE IN RECEIVABLES 55. 103.DECREASE IN CASH 1O2. HO.DEPRECIATION 14936. 2O5O3.

TOTAL CASH INFLOW 46128. 58925.

YEAR

8

60061.24.22.

315.21774.82197.

64344.57.655.156.

22381.87593.

1O

66091.67.

1373.132.

23094.90758.

LOSSDECREASE IN PflYfi&LESINCREASE IN RECEIVABLESINCREASE IN CASHCAPITAL EXPENDITURES

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW

is.567.3509.45.

33167.373O7.

O.6O7.1786.34.

28233.30660.

1.1744.6924.

4.

8653.17327.

24.B62.747.10.

6707.835O.

19.733.311.12.

8329.94 O4.

NET CASH FLOW 8822.17106.»

28265.1 4650. »

64870.18177.*

79243.18661.*

81354.18596.*

INDEBTEDNESS 170589.26742.*

142323.37266.*

7745A.49576.*

-1789.64336.*

-83143.78947.*

* STANDARD DEVIATION116

CASH F'.OW PROJECTION (* THOUSANDS)

AFTER TAX PROFITINCREASE IN PAYABUESDECREASE IN RECEIVfiBLESDECREASE IN COSHDEPRECIATION

rQTAL CASH INFLOW

11

68949.211.

1243.&3.

23794.94261.

63842.567.

3329.44.

25187.92969.

YEAR

13

603O4.£25.

3386.127.

29237.93277.

ORIGINAL PAGE JS

OP POOR QUALITY

7O462.16.

1545.337.

26539.98899.

O.2608.333.

198&c.93742.

LOSS 79. :i3.DECREASE IN PAYABLES 350. 242.INCREASE IN RECEIVABLES 477. 367.INCREASE IN CASH 38. 1O3.CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 16337. 3O274.

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 17281. 31099.

182.701.1052.41.

32776.34750.

173.1862.2864.

3.16219.21120.

246.18*2.1137.

O.1902.5l£fi.

CASH FLOW 76979.19584. <

61870.i:O523. »

58527.»2648. *

77779.•T0367. *

88615.18193.*

INDEBTEDNESS -160122.92967.*

-221992.104O69.»

-2805 H9.112061.*

-358298.121063.*

-446913.13186O.»



LPUNCHATTEMPTS

PROBABILITYINDICATED QUANTITY

10987654321O

00OOOO0OOO

100

O0oOoo00oo

100

0000000000

100

oo000o0oo

100o

0000oo0014a&o

o0oooo001

1782

oo0o00007330

o0oor>00ft£

~» «w •

77

YEAR a

AVERAGEVALUE OO 00 OO l.OO 1. 14 19 1. OS

STANDARDDEVIATION OO OO OO .00 .34 41 .27

118

PROBABILITY OP ANNUAL LAUNCH «TTEHPTS

LAUNCHATTEMPTS

PROBABILITYINDICATED QUANTITY (PERCENT)

1O987&5A321O

0O0O0OO01

1168

0OOoOo0o11386

0ooo00oo1

1386

O000OOOO3

O0Ooooo11654£3

00000001

144636

OOOOOOOO1990

YEAR 10 11 13

AVERAGEVALUE 13 15 15 . 31 .90 . 12

STANDARDDEVIATION . 35 .39 .37 .53 .70 . 75

119

PROBABILITY OP ANNUAL SPACECRAFT °URCHASES

NUMBER OFSPACECRAFT


io9a76s4321O

OOO0OOO000

100

0O0OO00O00

100

000000000O

100

OO0OOO00O94

6

OOO0OO0O12825

O0o00o001

1763

0OOOo00o6877

Ooooooo0c»

2078

YEAR 8

AVERAGEVALUE . OO .00 00 1.O7 . 18 1. OO

STANDARDDEVIATION .OO .OO OO 24 .42 .40 .38 . 48

120


NUMBER OFSPACECRAFT


103876543It

\O

oO0ooooo1

1189

OO0cj0OOr>1

1287

O0OOOo0o1

1387

O0O00OOO

0OO0O001

145332

00O00O01134838

OO000o001990

YEfiR 10 11 13 14 15

AVERAGEVALUE 14 . 14 29 83 77 1 1

STANDARDDEVIATION 34 38 51 68 72 34

121

enNO. YRS. ANALYZEDMAX. t OPER. SATSLAUNCH DATES (YRS)SATELLITE NO. 1SATELLITE NO. 2SATELLITE NO. 3SATELLITE NO. *SATELLITE NO. 5

LAUNCH DELAYSMAX. DELAY(YRS)MIN. DELAY(YRS)UNCERT. PROFILE

LEO TO GEOTRANSFER TIME -(YRS 1 THRU 15)

NO. SIMUL. RUNS

GLOBAL DATA (SYSTEM)152

4.55.00.00.00.0

0.80.52

0.250.250.251000

0.250.250.25

0.250.250.25

0.250.250.25

0.250.250.25

C2DDEBT SVC INT RT X 13.0EFFECT TAX RATE % 36.0INVEST TAX CRDT X 10.0TAX CREDIT ON ...LAUNCH COST 1INSURANCE COST 1S/C RECUR. COST 1OTHER CAP. EXP. 1PAYABLES (X EXP. ) 8.3RCVS (X REV.) 16.7CASH (X EXP. ) 1.5INSUR? (0*N/1«Y) 1S/C LEARN. ROTE X 88.0DEPRECIATION LIFE (YRS)LAUNCH, INS. , S/C 10. OOTHER CAP. EXP. 12.0DISCOUNT RATE (X) 10.0

GLOBAL DATA (FINANCIAL)

15.0 20.0 25. 0 40. O

122

C3DNARROW BAND

NO. OF GROUPSNO. TRANS/GRPSPARE TRANS/GRPMEAN TNE FAIL-YREXP. UEAROUT-YRSSTD WEAROUT-YRS

WIDE BANDNO. OF GROUPSNO. TRANS/GRPSPARE TRANS/GRPMEAN TME FAIL-YREXP. WEAROUT-YRSSTD WEAROUT-YRS

W/N BAND REL IMP.TRNSPNDR THRSHLD

SATELLITE NO. 1SATELLITE NO. 2SATELLITE NO. 3SATELLITE NO. 4SATELLITE NO. 5

TRANSPONDER DATA

111

31.21S.O2.0

122

31.215.02.0

1RELAUNCH

220O0

C4D

MEAN TME FAIL-YREXP. WEAROUT-YRSSTD WEAROUT-YRS

SPACECRAFT SUPPORT SUBSYSTEM DATASUBSYSTEM

POWER AVCS TT&C STRUCTURE OTHER230.0 166.0 200.0 1OOO.O 10OOO.O15.0 7.0 15.0 20.0 20.01.0 O. 5 1.0 1.0 l.O

123

C53

PROBABILITY OF:

BOOSTER SUCCESSORB SUC-NO ABORTP/L OK FINAL ORBPRPLSN MOD CKOUTXFER LEO TO 6EOORB RCVRY-ABORTORB RCVRY-B FAILORB RCVRY-FLT OK

MAX LNCH COST M»MIN LNCH COST M»LNCH CST UNCRT PF


2 3 4

0.9950.9950.9000.9500.9500.9900. 99O0.99919.44019.440

1

0.9950.9950.9000.9500.9500.9900. 99O0.99919.44019.440

1

0.9950.9950.9000.9500. 95O0.990O. 99OO. 99919. 44O19.440

1

0.9950.9950. 9OO0. 95O0.9500.9900. 99O0.99919.44019. 440

1

0.995O. 9950. 9OOO. 95O0.9500.990O. 99O0.99919.44019. 44O

1

C5D

PROBABILITY OF:


MAX LNCH COST M*MIN LNCH COST M*LNCH CST UNCRT PF


7 8 9 10

0.9950.9950.90O0.9500.9500.9900. 99O0.99919. 44O19.440

1

0.9950.9950. 90O0.9500.9500.9900.9900.99919. 44019.440

1

O. 9950.9950. 90O0.950O. 95OO. 990O. 99O0.99919. 44019.440

1

0.9950.9950.9000.9500. 95O0.990O. 99OO. 99919. 44019. 440

1

0.9950.9950. 90O0.9500. 9500.9900.9900. 99919.44019. 44O

1

C5]

PROBABILITY OF:


MAX LNCH COST M»KIN LNCH COST M«LNCH CST UNCRT PF

11


12 13 14 15

0.9950.9950.900O.9500. 950O.9900. 9900.99919. 44019. 440

1

0.9950.9950.9000.9500.9500.9900. 99O0.99919. 44019.440

1

0.9950.995O. 9OO0.950O. 950O.990O. 990O.99919.44019.440

1

O. 9950.9950.900O. 950O. 950O. 9900. 990O. 99919. 44019. 440

1

0.9950.9950.9000.9500. 95O0.99O0.99O0.99919.44019. 44O

1

124

CfeD DEMAND! SERVICE TYPE »1SATELLITE « 1


YEAR123A567a

101112131*IS

C73

YEAR123

789101112131415

MAX.DEMAND

000111222222222

MIN.DEMAND

O00111111111111

UNCERT.PROFILE

000000222222222


0001

' 22333333333

UNCERT.PROFILE

0 00 00 01 02 02 02 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 13

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »1SATELLITE


000011222222222

MIN.DEMAND

00OO11111111111

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O00O0222222222

41 2WIDE -BAND


000012333333333

0 00 00 00 01 02 02 132 132 132 132 132 132 13£ 132 13

125

C83 DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »1SATELLITE * 3

NORROW-BAND WIDE-BOND

C9D

YEAR1a34567&9101112131415

YEAR123

&789101112131415

MAX.DEMAND

0O0O0000000OO00

MIN.DEMAND

000000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

000000000000O00

MAX.DEMAND

000000000000000


000OO0000000OOO

00O00O00000O0O0

DEMflND: SERVICE TYPE *1SATELLITE


OO000O000O0O00O

MIN.DEMAND

0000000O0000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

OOO00000O0OOO0O

* 4WIDE-BAND

MAX.DEMAND

00O0000O00OO000

MIN. UNCERT,•DEMftND PROFILE

O000OO000O00O00

000O0O0O0000000

126

CIO]

YEAR12345&7a31O1112

131415


NARROW-BANDMAX. WIN. UNCERT. MAX.


DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE00000o00o000ooo

0000000o000o0oo

o0o0oooo0oo0000

00000000o00000o

o000ooo00000000

0o0ooooooo0oooo

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »2SATELLITE * 1

YEAR12245&789101112131415

NARROW-BANDMAX.

DEMAND0OO00oo0oo00o0o

MIN.DEMAND

00OOOO00OOOO0OO

UNCERT.PROFILE

OO0oo0oo0o0o00o

WIDE-BANDMAX.DEMAND

000000000O00O00

MIN.DEMAND

000000O00000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0Oooo00ooo0o0o

-' 0

127

CIS]

YEAR1234567a9

101112131415

DEMAND* SERVICE TYPE »2SATELLITE « 2

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BONDMAX.DEMAND

0000O0

MIN.DEMAND

OO0000

UNCERT.PROFILE

000000

MAX.DEMAND

0O0000

MIN.DEMAND

0O000O

UNCERT.PROFILE

O00OOO

[13]

YEAR123456789

101112131415

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *2SATELLITE * 3

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BONDMAX.DEMAND

000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

00OO00OO0OO0

UNCERT.PROFILE

00O000000000

MAX.DEMAND

00O000000O00

MIN.DEMAND

OO060O0O0OOO

UNCERT.PROFILE

OO00000O0OOO

128

C143

YEAR1234567a9101112131415

DEMAND i SERVICE TYPE «2SATELLITE « 4

NARROW-BANDMAX. MIN.DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE

UNCERT. MAX.WIDE-BAND

MIN. UNCERT.

000000000000000

00000000000oo00

00o0o0oo000oooo

000000000000000

o000o0o00o0o00o

0000

. 00oo0o00oo0

C153 DEMAND* SERVICE TYPE *2SATELLITE ft 5

YEAR123456789

101112131415


O00O0000O000Oo0

MIN.DEMAND

00O00O0000O0O0o

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0o0oo0ooooooo

WIDE-BANDMAX.DEMAND

000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

OOO000oooo0o00o

UNCERT.PROFILE

O0O00O0OOO000O0

129

C16J

YEAR123456789101112131415

OEMANDt SERVICE TYPE »3SPTELLITE • 1

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BANDMAX. MIN. UNCERT. MAX. MIN. UNCERT.DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE DEMAND DEMAND PROFILE

000000000000000

0000o0o0ooo0o0o

o0o0o0o000o0000

000o0o000o00o00

o0oooo000ooo0o0

00oo00000000000

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »3SATELLITE « 2

YEAR1234567a9101112131415


0000O000O000000

MIN.DEMAND

OOOO0O00ooo0oo0

UNCERT.PROFILE

0000O0O0OOO0000

WIDE-BANDMAX.DEMAND

0000O0OO000OOO0

MIN.DEMAND

O0O00OO0OO0O0O0

UNCERT.PROFILE

0OOO0O0O0OOOOOO

130

C18J DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *3SATELLITE « 3

NARROW-BOND WIDE-BAND

C19]

YEAR1a34567a3101112131415

YEAR1234567891O1112131415

MAX.DEMAND

0000o0o0o0oo00o

MIN.DEMAND

O000000000o0o0o

UNCERT.PROFILE

OOO0000OOO000OO


0000000000O0000

OOOO00O0000000o

UNCERT.PROFILE

0OOO000OOOOOO00

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *3SATELLITE

NARROW-BANDMAX.

DEMANDo00oo00bo00oo00

MIN.DEMAND

O0oo00oo00ooo00

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O00oo000000000

« 4WIDE-BAND


000O0OOO00O0O0O

00000oo0o0o0o00

UNCERT.PROFILE

O0OO0o000o0o0oo

131

C20D

YEPR12.3458783

101112131415


MORROW-BOND WIDE-BANDMAX.DEMAND

000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

OO0O0000OO0000O

UNCERT.PROFILE

O000000O000000O

MAX.DEMAND

000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

000000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0000000O0O000

C21] DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE *4SATELLITE * 1

YEAR123456789

101112131415


000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

O0OO00000O00000

UNCERT.PROFILE

00000000000000O

WIDE-BANDMAX.

DEMAND000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

000000000O0OO00

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0000000000000

132

C223

C23D

YEAR1

s67e9101112131415

YEAR1234567a9101112131415

DEMAND) SERVICE TYPE «4SATELLITE • 2


000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

O00ooo0oo00oooo

UNCERT.PROFILE

O0O0000000000O0

WIDE -BANDMAX. MIN.DEMAND DEMAND

00O0O000O000000

0o000000000000o

UNCERT.PROFILE

00OO0ooooo00oo0

DEMAND: SERVICE TYPE »4SATELLITE

NARROW- BANDMAX.DEMAND

000000ooo00ooo0

MIN.DEMAND

000O00O0O000OO0

UNCERT.PROFILE

000O000000O0O00

» 3WIDE -BAND


0000o00000o0ooo

000oo0oooo0oo0o

UNCERT.PROFILE

000O0OOO0O0O0O0

133

DEMAND i SERVICE TYPESATELLITE « *

C253

YEAR12

567891011121314IS

YEAR123456789101112131415

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BANDMAX.DEMAND

O00000000000O00

MIN.DEMAND

O00O00OO00OO0O0

UNCERT.PROFILE

O0O00O000000000

MAX.DEMAND

000000000000000

MIN.DEMAND

OO00O000O00O000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0O0O0O0OO00O0

DEMAND I SERVICE TYPE #4SATELLITE


0OO0O00O0000000

MIN.DEMAND

000OO0O00O0O00O

UNCERT.PROFILE

000OOO00O000O00

« 5WIDE-BAND

MAX.DEMAND

0O0O0000000000O

MIN.DEMAND

0O0O00O0OO0O00

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0OOO000O0000

O 0

134

C26D PRICE <K»/YR) : SERVICE TYPE »1NARROW-BAND WIDE-BOND

MAX. WIN. UNCERT. MAX. MIN. UNCERT.YEAR

1a345&789101112131415

PRICE PRICE PROFILE PRICE PRICE PROFILE000

17OOO170OO17000170OO1900019OOO19OOO190001900O19OOO19OOO19000

000

1 4000140OO14OOO1400O150OO1500015OOO15000150001500O1500015000

00044441616161616161616

000

170001700017OOO1700019OOO19OOO19OOO190OO1900019OOO1900O19000

000

1400014OOO14OOO14OOO15OOO15OOO15OOO15OOO15OOO15OOO15OOO150OO

00o44441616161616161616

C27] PRICE <K*/YR>: SERVICE TYPE #2

YEAR123456789101112131415

NARROW-BAND WIDE-BANDMAX.PRICE

000O0000000000

MIN.PRICE

0O00OO000O0OOo

UNCERT.PROFILE

00O00O0O000000

MAX.PRICE

000O00OO0000Oo

MIN.PRICE

00000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

0OOO0O0o0o0o0o

135

[283 PRICE <K*/YR)t SERVICE TYPE »3

YEAR1a34567a91011IS131415

MAX.PRICE

NARROW-BANDHIM. UNCERT.


PRICE PROFILE PRICE PROFILE000000000000000

o0oo .ooo000o000o

00o000000000ooo

000000000000000

ooo00000o000000

ooooooooooooooo

C393 PRICE <K»/YR>i SERVICE TYPE *4

YEAR1234567B9

10. 11

12131415

NARROW-BANDMAX.PRICE

0000000000000o0

MIN.PRICE

000000000OO0000

UNCERT.PROFILE

00O000O00000000

WIDE-BANDMAX.

PRICE000000000000000

MIN.PRICE

000000000000000

UNCERT.PROFILE

000o0o0o0ooo0oo

136

C303* DEMAND DECREASE RESULTING

FROM A 25* PRICE INCREASE1. PROTECTED2. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTIBLE4. PREEMPTIBLE

PRICE ELASTICITY DATANARROW-BAND35.035.035.035.0

WIDE-BAND35.035.035.035.0

C31D CORRELATION DATACORRELATION COEFFICIENT

TYPE OF SERVICEDEMAND DATA

1. PROTECTED2. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTIBLEA. PREEMPTIBLE

PRICE DATA1. PROTECTED2. PROTECTED/PREEMPTIBLE3. UNPROTECTED/NON-PREEMPTIBLE4. PREEMPTIBLE

S/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING EXPENSER4D EXPENSEG&A EXPENSEOTHER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

NARROW-BAND

0.80.80.80.8

0,0,00

88aa

0.80.80.80.80.8

WIDE-BAND

0.O.0.0.

0.O.

8aaa

aa

o. ao.a

C3£] COST/EXPENSE DATAMAX. S/C UNIT COST <K*> 71700.0WIN. S/C UNIT COST <K*> 622OO.0S/C UNIT COST UNCERTAINTY PROFILE 13MAX. S/C NONRECURRING COST <K*> 5380O.0MIN. S/C NONRECURRING COST <K*> 3590O.0S/C NONREC. COST UNCERT. PROFILE 11MAX. INSURANCE % 18.0MIN. INSURANCE * 12.0INSURANCE UNCERTAINTY PROFILE £2

137

C33J COST/EXPENSE DATA (CONTINUED)S/C CONTROL OPERATIONS COST(X)

C343

YEAR1234567a9

101112131415

SUM K» &

C353

AMTS

YEAR12345&789

101112131*15

SUM K* t X AMTS

MAX. WIN.COST<X) COST(X)

0.0 0.00. 0 O.O0. O O. O7.5 2.56.O 2.05.0 1.75.0 1.74.2 1.44.2 1.44.2 1.44.2 1.44.2 1.45.0 1.75.0 1.75. 0 1.7

UNCERT.PROFILE

0O0444444444444

ENGINEERING EXPENSEMAX.<K»>20OO. O2000. O2000.0200O. O1500.01500.015OO. O15OO.O150O. 0150O. 0150O. 01500.0150O. 015OO. 0150O. 0

0

MAX.(K*>10OO.O10OO.O100O.O1000.02OOO.O20OO. 020OO.O2000.02000. O2000.02000.02OOO. 02OOO.O2OOO.O2OOO. 0

0

MIN.(K*>2OOO. 02000. 02OOO. 020OO. 01500.01500. 01500.01500. 01500.01500. 01500.01500. 01500.015OO. 01500.0

MIN.(K*)10OO. 010OO. 010OO. 01OOO.O2000. 02000. 02000.02000.020OO. 02000. 020OO. 020OO. 020OO. 020OO. 02OOO.O

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

R*DUNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

MAX.<*>

2. O2.02. O2.01.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.5

EXPENSEMAX.<*>

1.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.5

MIN.<X)

2.02.02.02.01.51.51.51. 51.51.51.51.51. 51.51.5

MIN.(X)

1.51.51. 51.51.51.51.51.5. 5.5.5.5.51.51. 5

UNCERT.PROFILE

111111111111111

UNCERT.PROFILE

11111111

138

C363

YEAR1

3456789101112131415

SUM K* & % AMTS

C373

MAX. MIN.G*A EXPENSE

UNCERT. MAX. MIN. UNCERT.<K«) <K») PROFILE <*> <*) PROFILE500.0IOOO.O1500.02OOO.O2500.03000.0300O. 030OO. 03000.03000.03000. 03000. 03000.03000. 03000. 0

1

CAPITAL

50O.OIOOO.O1500.O2000. O25OO.O30OO.O3000. O30OO. 0300O. 03000.03000. 030OO. 030OO. 03000. 0300O. 0

111111111111111

0.0O.O0.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.0

0.0O.O0.03. O3.03.03. O3.O3.03.03.03.03.03. 03.0

111111111111111

EXPENDITURE DATAOTHER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

YEAR1a345&789101112131415

COST SPREADING

LAUNCH COSTINSURANCE

MAX.(K*)

0.00.0

3000.03000.0

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0O.O0.00.00.0

FUNCTIONS

135.210O.O

S/C RECUR COST 20.0

MIN.(K*)

O.OO.O

2000. 02OOO. O

0.0O.OO.O0.00.00.00.0O.OO.OO.O0.0

255.00.048.5

UNCERT.PROFILE

001616O0000 -0O000O

YEAR3

9.80.031.5

40.00.0O.O

50. O0.00. 0

NONRECUR COST 79.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

139

C383 UNCERTAINTY PROFILE DATAPROFILE

I.D.12345678910111213141516171819£0

PROFILE INTERVAL1

0.500.300.300.350. 210.230.250. 160. 120. 150. 800. 150. 100.080.050. 100.030.050.030.03

20.250.250.300.400.320.300.35O. 490.320.340. 100.220.25O. 250.250.200.300.200.200.07

30. 150.200.200. 150.270.230.250.240.320.370.050.260.300.340.400.400.340.500.540.80

4O.O70. 150. 130.070. 150. 160. 100.090. 170. 120.030.220.250.250.250.200.300.20O. 2O0.07

50.03O. 100.070.030.050.080. 050. O20.070.020.020. 150. 100.080.050. 100.030.050. O30.03

140

PROFORMA INCOME STATEMENT <« THOUSANDS)


TOTAL REVENUE

YEAR

3

0.0.0.0.0.0. *

0.o.0.0.o.o. *

0.0.0.0.0.0. «

12117.0.0.0.

12117.5777.*

72497.0.0.0.

72497.19439.*


DEPRECIATION EXPENSES/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING EXPENSERESEARCH » DEVELOPMENT


0.0.0.0.0.o.

2000.10OO.3000.O. *

O.0.0.0.0.0.

200O.1000.3OOO.O. •

O.0.0.

209.209.0.

2000.10OO.3209.19. •

1588.1104.5476.425.8593.490.200O.1OOO.12082.4108. •

3713.2482.12169.425.

18789.2468.1500.20OO.24757.3553. *

GROSS MARGIN (*) 30OO.O. »

•30OO.O. *

-3209.19.*

34.1797.*

47740.17366.*

S/C NONRECURRING COST6 & A EXPENSEDEBT SERVICE EXPENSE

31695.5OO.O.

8425.1OOO.2416.

O.150O.7754.

O.2363.19184.

O.4675.3O158.


35195.12670.

O.22525.2202. *

-14841.-5343.

0.-9498.736.*

-12463.-4487.251.

-7726.1240.*

-21513.-7745.8427.-5341.2552. *

12907.4647.10196.18457.95O6.«

RETURN ON ASSETS <*> -4267.0. *

-798.1642.<

-7.11.*

-3.2.*

7.4. *

RETURN ON SALES <*> O.0. *

O.0. »

0.0. *

-24.25.*

22.27.*

• STANDARD DEVIATION 141

PROFORMA INCOME STATEMENT (• THOUSPNDS)


TOTAL REVENUE


DEPRECIATION EXPENSES/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING EXPENSERESEARCH * DEVELOPMENT


GROSS MARGIN (*)

S/C NONRECURRING COSTG t A EXPENSEDEBT SERVICE EXPENSE


RETURN ON ASSETS <*>

RETURN ON SALES <*>

84668.0.0.0.

84668.10769.*

3962.2637.12896.425.

19920.2503.1500.200O.25923.2560. »

58745.11103. »

0.5540.32386.

20619.7495.1131.14455.6567.*

6.3.*

16.16.*

83414.O.0.0.

83414.10743.*

4102.2718.13273.425.

20517.2557.1500.2OOO.26574.3248. »

56840.12672.*

0.5502.29707.

21630.7787.597.

14441.8924. *

7.4. *

16.13. •

92936.O.0.0.

92936.12212.*

4246.2799.13643.425.

21112.2436.1508.200O.27056.4225. *

65880.14729. »

0.5788.26267.

33825.12177.595.

22243.11257.*

11.5.*

22.15.*

4423.2896.14O84.425.

2182&.249O.1506.20OO.27823.5577.*

64811.159O2.*

0.5779.22O&0.

36972.13310.715.

24377.12793.*

14.7.*

25.16. *

4578.2978.14460.425.

22441.2513.1505.2OOO.28458.6351.«

62789.17617.*

0.5737.17593.

39458.14205.614.

25867.15623. «

15.8. *

26.21. «


PROFORMA INCOME STATEMENT (ft THOUSPNOS)


TOTAL REVENUE


DEPRECIATION EXPENSES/C CONTROL OPERATIONSENGINEERING EXPENSERESEARCH t DEVELOPMENT


GROSS MARGIN (*)

S/C NONRECURRING COST6 & A EXPENSEDEBT SERVICE EXPENSE


RETURN ON ASSETS (%>

RETURN ON SALES (*>

72702.0.0.0.

72702.20025. *

5025.3212.15514.425.

24175.2019.1SO1.2OOO.29695.7551.*

43007.22394. »

0.5181.14408.

23418.8431.1735.16722.17466.*

9.8. *

16.46.*

55075.0.O.0.

55075.24303. *

6596.4024.19131.425.

30176.1552.1500.2000.35228.8199.*

19847.24914.*

0.4652.14088.

1107.398.6000.6709.

18893.*

4.a.*

-6.80.*

73464.O.0.0.

73464.23333. «

7850.4667.21971.425.

34913.2505.1501.20OO.40918.7432.*

32546.23753. »

0.5204.14712.

12630.4547.4737.12820.19209. *

7.8. *

10.51. »

85848.0.0.0.

85848.18930.*

6709.3787.1749O.425.

28410.2950.15O2.20OO.34862.7658. *

50986.22308. »

0.5575.12447.

32963.11867.1666.22762.20634. »

12.10. »

21.46. •

85590.0.0.0.

85590.21071.*

4677.2455.11000.216.

18348.2959.1502.2000.24809.6449. *

60781.24469.*

0.5568.7584.

47629.17146.343.

30826.23088. »

18.13.*

30.41. •

• STANDARD DEVIATION143

CASH FLOW PROJECTION (• THOUSANDS)

AFTER TAX PROFIT 0. O.INCREASE IN PAYABLES 2921. 1614.DECREASE IN RECEIVABLES 0. O.DECREASE IN CASH 0. 56.DEPRECIATION 0. O.

TOTAL CASH INFLOW 2921. 167O.

YEAR

3

0.4373.

0.0.

209.4582.

0.1268.

0.1.

8593.9862.

18649.32.O.

524.18789.37995.

LOSSDECREASE IN PAYABLESINCREASE IN RECEIVABLESINCREASE IN CASHCAPITAL EXPENDITURES

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW

22525.0.0.

528.0.

23053.

9498.311.0.

292.36053.46154.

7726.1.O.

790.91315.99832.

5341.8.

2023.229.

93712.101315.

192.2902.1OO84.

6.43375.56559.

NET CASH FLOW -20132.1968.*

-44484.15952.*

-95250.16752.»

-91452.17095.*

-18564.25350.*


64616.16144.»

159666.32080.*

251318.25054.»

269882.23101.4

DISCOUNT RATE <*)

1 2 3 4 5

10. 15. 20. 25. 40.

NET PRESENT VALUE "A"NET PRESENT VALUE "B"

•104199. -112052. -111458. -106939. -87386.102878. 33678. 12784. 5322. 543.

NET PRESENT VALUE -1321. -78374. -98674. -101616. -86843.95689.* 53308.* 34733.* 24743.* 12361.*

144

CASH FLOW PROJECTION <* THOUSANDS)

AFTER TAX PROFIT 14855. 15331.INCREASE IN PAYABLES 15. 127.DECREASE IN RECEIVABLES 135. 584.DECREASE IN CASH 489. 87.DEPRECIATION 19920. 20517.

TOTAL CASH INFLOW 35414. 36646.

YEAR

a

23077.147.278.71.

21112.44685.

25306.265.798.74.

21826.48270.

10

27303.9€4.912.36.

22441.51655.

LOSS 40O. 890. 834. 929. 1436.DECREASE IN PAYABLES 2707. 482. 393. 411. 198.INCREASE IN RECEIVABLES 2168. 374. 1869. 747. 68O.INCREASE IN CASH 3. 23. 27. 48. 174.CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 7817. 62O4. 65O6. 8911. 22627.

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 13094. 7974. 9628. 11047. 25115.

NET CASH FLOW 22320.19575.»

28672.18680.*

35057.19763.*

37223.20O31.*

26541.21248.*

INDEBTEDNESS 247561.35896.»

218889.51412.*

183832.68192.*

146609.83943.*

120068.9763O.*


COSH FLOW PROJECTION <• THOUSANDS)

AFTER TAX PROFITINCREASE IN PAYABLESDECREASE IN RECEIVABLESDECREASE IN CASHDEPRECIATION

TOTAL CASH INFLOW

11

18995.1405.3462.21.

24173.48058.

12

11201.638.4036.94.

30176.46145.

YEAR

13

16369.137.1007.302.

34913.52727.

14

25620.33.604.286.

28410.54955.

15

33486.1.

923.165.

18348.52923.

LOSS 2273. 4492. 3548. 2857. 266O.DECREASE IN PAYABLES 117. 519. 1670. 1585. 912.INCREASE IN RECEIVABLES 365. 1093. 4079. 2672. 68O.INCREASE IN CASH 254. 115. 25. 6. O.CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 42379. 45131. 24532. 7308. 1199.

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 45388. 5135O. 33853. 14429. 5651.

NET CASH FLOW 2670.22062. *

-5205.21919.•

18874.24978.<

40526.20800.»

47272.1802O.*


122603.110353.*

103729.117716.*

63203.13OO17.*

15931.144771.*

• STANDARD DEVIATION146

PROBABILITY Of ANNUAL LAUNCH ATTEMPTS

LAUNCHATTEMPTS

PROBABILITY OFINDICATED QUANTITY <PERCENT)

109a7654321O

00O00000O0

100

0O0O000000

100

00000OOOOO

100

0O00O000O

1000

0000000330670

00000O0O114as

000000000891

O0O000O0O9

91

YEAR 8

AVERAGEVALUE .00 .00 .OO 1.00 1.37 . 15 09 09

STANDARDDEVIATION .00 .OO .00 .00 .55 .38 30 30

H7


LAUNCHATTEMPTS


109a7654321O

O00OOOOO1109O

0OOO0OO01990

0O00000012673

0O0000O1245124

OO0O0O01154836

0OO0OOO032474

OO0000OO0595

YEAR 10 11 12 13 14 15

AVERAGEVALUE 11 11 28 1.01 81 .30 06

STANDARDDEVIATION 32 34 47 .71 73 .52 25

148


NUMBER OFSPACECRAFT


109676343ai0

0000000000

100

0000000000

100

o0oo00ooo0

100

000000000946

0000000225730

0000o00001486

00o0o0000892

0000o00o0891

YEAR 8

AVERAGEVALUE .00 ,00 00 .94 1.28 . 14 09 09

STANDARDDEVIATION .00 00 00 .24 .50 .36 29 29

149

PROBABILITY OF ANNUM. SPACECRAFT PURCHASES

NUMBER OFSPACECRAFT


109876543£1O

0000000001090

000000000991

000000001

2475

00OO0O00215227

00000001

134740

0000000022374

000O0OOOO593

YEAR 10 11 12 13 14 15

AVERAGEVALUE 10 10 95 75 28

STANDARDDEVIATION 31 32 70 71 51 .24

150

1. Report No.

NASA CR-1749792. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No.

4. Title and Subtitle

Evaluation of Spacecraft Technology Programs(Effects on Communication Satellite BusinessVentures) - Volume II

5. Report Date

September 1985

6. Performing Organization Code

7. Author(s)

Joel S. Greenburg, Carole Gaellck, Marshall Kaplan,Janls Flshman, and Charles Hopkins

8. Performing Organization Report No.

None

10. Work Unit No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address

Econ, Inc.1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 290Alexandria, Virginia 22314

11. Contract or Grant No.

NAS 3-23886

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationWashington, D.C. 20546

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

•Contractor Report

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

506-62-22

15. Supplementary Notes

Final Report. Project Manager, Karl A. Faymon, Power Technology Division, NASALewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio 44135. Joel S. Greenburg, CaroleGaellck, and Janls Flshman, Princeton Synergetics, Inc., Princeton, New Jersey08540; Marshall Kaplan, Spacetech Inc., P.O. Box 1109, State College,Pennsylvania 16801; Charles Hopkins, Econ, Inc., San Jose. California 95117.

16. Abstract

Commercial organizations as well as government agencies Invest 1n spacecraft (S/C)technology programs that are aimed at Increasing the performance of communica-tions satellites. The value of these programs must be measured 1n terms of theirImpacts on the financial performance of the business ventures that may ultimatelyutilize the communications satellites. An economic evaluation and planning capa-bility has been developed and used to assess the Impact of NASA on-orb1t propul-sion and space power programs on typical fixed satellite service (FSS) and directbroadcast service (DBS) communications satellite business ventures. Typical FSSand DBS spin and three-axis stabilized spacecraft were configured 1n the absenceof NASA technology programs. These spacecraft were reconfigured taking Intoaccount the anticipated results of NASA specified on-orb1t propulsion and spacepower programs. In general, the NASA technology programs resulted 1n spacecraftwith Increased capability. This report describes the developed methodology forassessing the value of spacecraft technology programs 1n terms of their Impact onthe financial performance of communication satellite business ventures. Resultsof the assessment of NASA specified on-orb1t propulsion and space power technologyprograms are presented for typical FSS and DBS business ventures. This reportconsists of two volumes. Volume 1 describes the methodology and contains theresults of the analyses performed for the on-orb1t propulsion and space powertechnology programs. Volume 2 contains appendices describing the DOMSAT II Modeland data base and Includes user and programmer documentation.

17. Key Words (Suggested by Author(s))

Communications satellites; On-orb1tpropulsion; Gallum arsenide solarce l l s ; Economic analyses

19. Security Classif. (of this report)Unclassi f ied

18. Distribution Statement

Unclassif iedSTAR Category

20. Security Classif. (of this page)Unclassi f ied

- unlimited32

21. No. of pages155

22. Price'A08

"For sale by the National Technical Information Service. Springfield. Virginia 22161

National Aeronautics andSpace Administration

Lewis Research CenterCleveland. Ohio 44135

Official BusinessPenalty for Private Use $300

SECOND CLASS MAIL

ADDRESS CORRECTION REQUESTED

Postage and Fees PaidNational Aeronautics andSpace AdministrationNASA-451

NASA

Documents

NASA€¦ · launch time delays, transfer time fran LED to (SO, cost of insurance, satellite control operations expense, G&A expense, etc.) to establish annual profit (loss), annual