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Active members: Participants: Chris Badurek , David Baker, Nicolas Bousserez , Jim Collatz , Sangram Ganguly , Robert Kennedy, Dimitris Menemenlis , John Miller, Steve Pawson , `. NASA CMS uncertainty working group. Ocean State. Land State. “Uncertainty”. Ocean/air flux. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 1
NASA CMS UNCERTAINTY WORKING GROUP
Active members: Participants: Chris Badurek, David Baker, Nicolas Bousserez, Jim Collatz, Sangram Ganguly, Robert Kennedy, Dimitris Menemenlis, John Miller, Steve Pawson,
`
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 2
“Uncertainty”
Land State
Land/air fluxOcean/air flux
Ocean State
Ocean/Land flux
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 3
Observation
Map of s
tate
or fl
ux
What is uncertainty here?
Map 2 of state or flux
Propagation
Model
Data
If we were all talking about the same thing, then we could put all
of our results together and everything should overlap!
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 4
Understand CMS projects
Online Survey
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsSSZURmMDWwdEl2eWY0WmpkYVlMdmhLV2ZGc25CX2c#gid=0
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 5ETC.
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 6
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 7
Types of uncertainty
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 8
Models and data are both wrong
Models are correct – errors
come from measurements and the initial guess of the
state.
1. Deterministic
2. Stochastic/Ens
emble
3. Model-data comparison
4. Model-model comparison
5. Data-Data comparison
NASA CMS Nov 2013 JPL 9
* Numbers correspond to project IDs in
briefing material
appendix