www.epa.gov/research

U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Research and Development http://www.epa.gov/ord/SSWR Research Priorities http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm\

Science Question. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients.

Narragansett Bay and Watershed Sustainability – Demonstration Project

Narragansett CHRP Meeting. March 21, 2013

The need is to inform governance decisions, at multiple scales affecting air, land, and water to achieve

more “sustainable design solutions”

Research Task and Products

Boundary Partners = Key Governance Institutions that have the authority and capacity to influence the trajectory of ecosystem change

• need improved, data, information knowledge delivery

• to adjust policies needed to achieve more sustainable systems solutions

• contributing to reduction in point and non-point sources of nutrients & co-pollutants affecting water quality

Key Research Outputs & Products

Quantitative models describing past, current

and future nutrient fluxes and associated ecosystem

level responses in the Narragansett Bay

watershed and estuary ecosystem

Trend analysis of stressors and ecological responses, particularly

nutrients, in the Narragansett Bay

Watershed

Outcomes

Use of approaches in

regulatory an non-regulatory

decision making affecting future

trajectory of ecosystem

change

Decision Support Applications to inform

decisions affecting nutrient flux and possible changes to systems (e.g.,

ecosystems, communities, and economies)

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End Users

www.epa.gov/research

U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Research and Development http://www.epa.gov/ord/SSWR Research Priorities http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm\

Trends in Nitrogen Loading:

Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al. 2011 Ecology letters Aug;14(8):804-15.

5X TN▲

4X TN▲

Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeur et al. 2010

15SSWR – 6.1 To manage change, it is important to understand sources of nitrogen, and how these have changed over time.

State of RI legislature embraced a goal of dramatically reducing landside nitrogen loading to the Bay 3

Atmospheric deposition of Nitrogen, (CMAQ model) How will NOx source control will affect Northeastern U.S.

http://gispub4.epa.gov/LES/

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http://gispub4.epa.gov/LES/

Blue area represent flow lines (NHDplus). SSWR 6.1 using 1:100K NHD to facilitate tech transfer

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Things accomplished already• Use and Refinement of Northeast SPARROW model TN and TP

fluxes to characterize between variation in lake trophic status

• Northeast Lakes Flex application for GIS map server and analysis

• Doing additional GIS calculations related to cyanobacteria in lakes & reservoirs

• Statements of issues and needs from key Boundary partners (OW, EPA R1, RI DEM, MA DEP)

• Coordination with USGS. Some aspects could be scalable to

Northeastern U.S. & subsequently used for U.S. East Coast in 2015 & beyond

http://gispub4.epa.gov/LES/

EPA Narragansett Bay Modeling

Hydrodynamics – FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model)

Water Quality – WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program)

Point source reduction

Future land use

Climate change

Shellfish restoration

Shellfish

Finfish

Beaches

Modeling Seagrass extent

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Blue area represents the potential seagrass area if its maximum depth was 3 meters.

Ecology Models

We are using the USGS SPARROW model for nutrient loading to the Bay – SPARROW models only total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), and gives only annual loads.

SCENARIOSFuture land use

Shellfish restoration

Climate change (temp, precip, wind, SLR, OA)

Photo: The Nature Conservancy in RI

Point source reduction

Source: RIDEM Photo: RI Emergency Management Agency

FVCOM(Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) - Hydrodynamics

Residence times, circulation patterns (collapsed in time/space)

Executed with two modeling setups: EFDC (short-term) and FVCOM (Longer-term)

EPA’s WASP Water Quality Model

NH3, DO, chl a, TSS

WASP can model individual nutrient species and multiple phytoplankton groups

Models are integrated with available data

www.epa.gov/athens/wwqtsc/html/wasp.html

SeagrassModeling

TN, TPLoading

Water Quality AffectingOptical

Properties

Chlorophyll-a

CDOM

Particulates

TN, TPConc.

Depth of Colonization

Objective

PotentialSeagrassHabitat

Inputs fromWatershed

The relationship between nutrient inputs (N) and light quality/quantity for the seagrass Zostera marina – mediated through the relationship between N and chl a (phytoplankton) – is being developed.

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Using a food web-based model to examine the response to nutrient inputs effect of shellfish on nitrogen

We are developing: 1) stressor-response relationships between eutrophication measures (nutrient load/DO) and benthic condition, and 2) population models for fish and shellfish

Working with Model Results

• Valuation of shellfish, finfish, and beaches

• Can we develop a formal application of existing data to quantify uncertainty and compare the trade-offs between bias and variance among models? We are examining information-theoretic inference and bayesian techniques.

Narragansett Beach: 100 visitors/day x $49/visit (parking, food, other) = $49,000