Naples Bay / Rookery BayHydrodynamic Model

Kick Off Meeting

Y. Peter Sheng & Vladimir A. ParamyginCoastal and Oceanographic Engineering Program

University of Florida

March 31, 2014

Scope of Work

Task Scope Deliverable(weeks from start)

1 Kick-off meeting to discuss methodology, deliverables, scenarios, etc. 1

2 Model calibration and verification. Setup and run the model for a 2-year period 15/20

3 Development of alternatives. Optimize freshwater inflows to Naples Bay and Rookery Bay 21

4 Model applications. Evaluation of alternative scenarios. 28

5 Parallel computing setup. 12

CH3D Model Domain

Map with Henderson Creek showing

CH3D Model Domain

Projection UTM Zone 17, NAD 1983

Average cell size (inshore) ~ 35 meters

Average cell size (offshore) ~ 65 meters

Model Configuration

3D model, baroclinic, with 4-8 vertical layers Forcing:

Wind Tidal constituents (10 components) Rainfall Flow rates at river boundaries

Tidal constituent Amplitude Phase

K1 47.7 -27.1

O1 5.7 91.0

P1 9.6 153.0

Q1 2.7 -51.1

K2 14.3 179.8

M2 15.8 -0.1

N2 5.2 19.4

S2 3.0 -40.2

SA 7.5 171.1

SSA 3.0 226.5

Water Level Model-Data Comparisons

Waterlevel,m

(NAVD88)

2012-01-14 2012-01-28 2012-02-11 2012-02-25 2012-03-10 2012-03-24-1

-0.5

0

0.5MeasuredSimulated

Naples, FL (8725110)

USGS station 02291310Gordon River

NOAA stationNaples, FL

Salinity Model-Data ComparisonSalin

ity,p

pt

2012-01-12 2012-02-11 2012-03-12

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Measured (top)Measured (bottom)Simulated (top)Simulated (bottom)

USGS station 02291310 (Gordon River)

Model-Data Comparison Statistics

Station Name Data Type r2 RMSE

USGS 02291310 Gordon River at Rowing Club Point Near Naples, FL

Water Level 0.83 8 cm

USGS 02291315 Naples Bay at City Dock Near Naples, FL Water Level 0.87 9 cm

USGS 02291330 Naples Bay at Gordon Pass Near Naples, FL Water Level 0.90 6 cm

8725110 Naples, FL Water Level 0.93 6 cm

USGS 02291310 Gordon River at Rowing Club Point Near Naples, FL

Salinity(bottom/top)

0.520.57

8 ppt

USGS 02291315 Naples Bay at City Dock Near Naples, FLSalinity

(bottom/top)0.810.79

6 ppt

USGS 02291330 Naples Bay at Gordon Pass Near Naples, FLSalinity

(bottom/top)0.900.89

2 ppt

Additional Calibration - Data needed to reduce errors

Bathymetry data – while there is a good bathymetric dataset available for the Naples Bay, the data for the Rookery Bay is rather sparse and channels may not be represented correctly in the model, thus causing incorrect flow rates through these channels.

Flow rates at river boundaries – the data provided by Taylor Engineering is limited to annually averaged flows. Higher frequency (daily or hourly) flow rates at river boundaries could significantly improve results of salinity simulations. Data at GG-1 (>120 sq mi catchment and major urban area of BCB) is of particular importance.

Tidal boundary conditions – two of the tidal constituents, SA and SSA, with period of 12 and 6 months, respectively, are comparable to or longer than the period of simulation. Accuracy of calibration for these constituents could have significant error. A 2-4 year simulation would be desirable to calibrate and verify these constituents.

Flow Scenarios to Determine the Desirable Diversion Strategy

Current Henderson Creek diversion plan: 100 cfs will be diverted to Rookery Bay What are other alternatives? 50 cfs? 200 cfs? Should the diverted flow be a fraction of the average daily flow? What about during low flow or drought condition? Wet and dry season?

What is the target (desirable) salinity range inside Naples Bay and Rookery Bay? What are the benchmark species? What are the associated target ranges?

Naples Bay - Seagrass and Oyster - 15-20 ppt Rookery Bay - ?

How are the specific target areas? The entire Naples Bay? How about short-term pulse releases?

How frequent? Over what period of time? For the future – Is there a need for a real-time forecasting system to predict the need

to adjust the diversion plan?

Possible ScenariosScenario Duration River Flow

(Simulated/ Observed)

River FlowFrequency

Henderson Creek Diversion (cfs)

Tidal Forcing

Wind Forcing

1 20 Years NSM* No

2 20 Years NSM* 100 cfs

3 Dry Year No

4 Wet Year No

5 Dry Year 100 cfs

6 Wet Year 100 cfs

7 Dry Year 10% of flow rate

8 Dry Year 10% of flow with minimum threshold

9 Wet Year 10% of flow rate

*NSM - Natural System Model

Metric for Evaluation of Alternatives

Specific Target Areas? Entire Naples Bay? Rookery Bay?

Target Salinity Frequency (Monthly? Daily? Hourly?) and Range?

Target Species? Oyster? Seagrass?