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EXTERNAL USE
Nanomanufacturing Innovations For Electronics, Display & Energy: Opportunities and Challenges
Omkaram (Om) NalamasuChief Technology OfficerApplied Materials
2NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
OUTLINE
Introduction to Applied Materials
Nanotechnology vs Nanomanufacturing
Nanomanufacturing for Electronics & Display
Nanomanufacturing for Energy: Global Drivers, Technology Inflections and Need for Innovative Solutions
Call for Action and Summary
3NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Applied Materials – Who We Are
Founded in 1967 in Silicon Valley Global leader in Nanomanufacturing
Technology™ solutions with a portfolio of equipment, service and software products for the fabrication of: – Semiconductor chips (#1)– Flat panel displays (#1)– Solar PV modules (#1)– Energy Efficient Glass (#1)
NASDAQ-100, S&P 500, Fortune 500 Invest $1B in R&D per year for 5 years
– R&D in NA, EU, and Asia ~12,600 Employees globally Extensive global interactions
– Operate in > 20 countries– Revenue typically > 80% outside US
4NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Nanomanufacturing TechnologySmall features on a large production scale
Placing a nanotube?
More Than Nanofabrication – Repeatable, Robust, Reliable, Controllable: Scalable & Cost Effective Solution
5NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Moore's Law and Transistor Cost
1B
1M
1K
1
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
(Source: G. Moore, ISSCC 2003)
Number ofTransistors(x Billions)
Cost perTransistor(Nano $)
Human Made Items (2006)Automobile (cars):Toilet paper (rolls):Ice Cream (pints):Coca cola (cans):DRAM (bits):Flash (bits):
65,000,0002,100,000,000
32,000,000,000290,000,000,000
2,900,000,000,000,000,0003,500,000,000,000,000,000
Exa-bits at Nano-dollars
6NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Disruptions in ITRS Roadmap Patterning Interconnects Packaging
Cu
Cu
Al
M0
V0
M1
V1
M2
ALD III-V on Si, Vertical Transistors New Materials&Memories
The Road to 10 nm is Full of Fundamental Challenges and Disruptions
7NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Courtesy Sharp
CostFunction
Process CostArea
(Good) FunctionArea
Cost Per Function: Flat Panel Displays
• Functions/area is the predominant driver for VLSI
• Cost/area is the more dominant factor in applications other than VLSI
Applied PECVD 5.7
AKT-PIVOT™ 55KV PVD
8NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Flat Panel Display (LCD) Manufacturing
> 20% Bigger (HD)TV Every Year for the Same Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
LCD Industry Revenue ($B) Production Cost per Area (k$/m2)
0.1
1
10
100
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
200420042020””~$1000~$1000
200420042020””~$1000~$1000
200820084242”” ~$1000~$1000
200820084242”” ~$1000~$1000
2011 2011 6060”” ~$1000~$1000
2011 2011 6060”” ~$1000~$1000
0.1
1
10
100
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
200420042020””~$1000~$1000
200420042020””~$1000~$1000
200820084242”” ~$1000~$1000
200820084242”” ~$1000~$1000
2011 2011 6060”” ~$1000~$1000
2011 2011 6060”” ~$1000~$1000
0.1
1
10
100
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
200420042020””~$1000~$1000
200420042020””~$1000~$1000
200820084242”” ~$1000~$1000
200820084242”” ~$1000~$1000
2011 2011 6060”” ~$1000~$1000
2011 2011 6060”” ~$1000~$1000
9NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
1600370x470400x500
3500 / 4300 / 4300A550x650600x720620x750
5500/5500A680x880730x920
10K1000x1200
15K / 15KA1100x12501200x1300
40K / 40KA1870x22001950x2250
41,140 cm2(1.52 from 25 K)
ModelSubstrate Size (mm)
Gen 2 Gen 3 / 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 5 Gen 5 Gen 7 / 7.5
System Layout
Substrate Area
2,000 cm2(1.00)
4,650 cm2(2.33 from 1600)
6,716 cm2(1.44 from 4300)
12,000 cm2(1.79 from 5500)
15,600 cm2(1.30 from 10K)
ACLS ACLS
2/ '93~ 4/ '95~ 1/ '00~ 8/ '01~ 6/ '02~ 7/ '04~1st Release
Gen 8
ACLS
50K 2160x2460
53,136 cm2(1.21 from 40 KA)
2006
Gen 5.5
19,500 cm2(1.25 from 15 K)
20K 1300x1500
ACLS
8/ '04~
ACLS
25K / 25KA1500x1800 1500x1850
27,750 cm2(1.78 from 15 K)
5/ '03~
Gen 6
Flat Panel Display Equipment – PECVD
Gen 10 = 60nm uniformity over ~ 1019 nm2 area at 50sph
Gen 10 AKT-90K PECVD
10NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Cost per watt
Applied Materials Enables and Expands Markets by Driving Cost Reduction….
1974 20044
trillion1,400,000
trillion
10 cents 5 nano-dollars
20,000,000x Cost ReductionSource: SIA, IC Knowledge LLC
1995 20050.3 million
m225 million
m2
$30,000/m2 $1,500/m2
20x Cost ReductionSource: Display Search, Nikkei BP, Applied Materials
Cost per transistor
FIRST
Cost per area
THEN
NOW
11NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Global Energy Opportunity
Global economy is set to grow four fold and could approach tenfold in developing countries in 2007-2050 period
Global “business-as-usual” will increase CO2 emissions by 130% raising global temperatures by 6ºC
Over $45 trillion dollars need to be invested to reduce the CO2 emissions by 50% or $17 trillion to maintain today’s emission levels
Source: World Energy Outlook, Source : IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
Comparison of the World Energy outlook 2007450ppm case and the Blue Map Scenario, 2005-2050
Emis
sion
s (G
t CO
2)
12NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Energy Technology Innovations
IEA identified 17 critical technologies on demand and supply side to address energy efficiency, generation and transportation innovations necessary to fuel global growth
13NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Energy Technology Markets
13
Li-Ion battery (~20%)
Solar PV (~25%)
LED(~24%)
Source: SIA, Display Search, Photon Consulting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, IIT Japan, Avicenne, BCC
GENERATION
CONSERVATION
STORAGE
demand
scale + technology
costreduction
CAGR ‘10 – ’13F
15NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Energy Efficiency - Opportunity
• Lighting consumes 22% of electricity• Plant to light efficiency for incandescent lamps is only 0.8% but can go up 10 fold with LED lighting to 8%
Source: National Academy of engineering
• Buildings account for 40% of primary energy and 73% of electricity use
16NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Reducing HVAC Energy: Architectural Coated Glass
Cost Reductions Achieved with Low-e Coatings
Low-e Coatings
Phoenix
San Antonio
700 Annual Energy Expenditures ($)300
500
400
600
Cost Reductions Achieved with Low-e Coatings
Low-e Coatings
Phoenix
San Antonio
700 Annual Energy Expenditures ($)300
500
400
600
700 Annual Energy Expenditures ($)300
500
400
600
2000 ft2 house with 300 ft2 of windows
Annual Energy Loss (U.S.) Due to Today’s Windows: ~ 4.5Q BTUs* (6% total energy usage, cost >$40B)
17NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Increasing Adoption of Coated Glass
Savings from 2007 Global Output ~ 36,000 Bbl/day†
† Equivalent to 12 oil wells or 18Mt CO2
Bird’s Nest Stadium (Beijing)Shanghai SYP Engineering Glass Co.
10,000m2 of high performance Low-E glass
House of Sweden (Washington DC)AGC Flat Glass
5500m2 Stopray® Elite and Stopray® Carat glass
Main Triangle Building (Frankfurt)Guardian Industries
15,000m2 SunGuard® Solar Control and Low-E coated glass
Burj Dubai (UAE)Guardian Industries100,000m2 SunGuard® Solar Control and Low-E coated glass
18NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Large Area Glass Coating Systems
Glass Substrate is ~ 2.6 m x 3.6 m– Uniformity Spec of +/- 1% on 275 nm film (10 layer Triple Low e stack)
18 Chamber System ~ 90m: one panel every 20 sec – Annual output ~ 10 million m2 (10 km2)
19NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Electrochromic "Smart Glass"
Key Requirements for Market Adoption: Performance: Energy efficiency, lifetime Form: Color selection, match non-EC panes, pane-to-pane
consistency, large size panes, on-off Cost: At least comparable to Low-e glass + shadesTypical Structure ~ 10 metal/dielectric layers, most < 100nm thick (up to ~ 500nm)
Images courtesy of Sage Electrochromics
Goal is to bring nanomanufacturing expertise and scale to bring the cost/m2 from $1000 to <$100-
150 range
Market studies indicate opportunity to address over 60% of buildings windows market at that
cost point
20NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
LED Industry’s Near Term Focus is on Backlight Inflection
1980 1990 2000 2010F 2020F
Rel
ativ
e LE
D U
nit S
hipm
ents
General Illumination
Backlighting
Specialty LED
21NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
LED Backlighting for Laptops and LCD TVs is the Next big thing
• Display Search projects LED backlighting for laptop market to grow from 52% in 2009 to 100% in 2012 driven by: Power savings, Slim form factor & green technology
• All major LCD TV players are investing- e.g. Samsung, Sony, LG
• Attractive attributes• High Contrast (3,000,000:1)
• Lower energy consumption
• Color Gamut>105%
• LCD TV market is forecasted to grow - 17% CAGR, 200 M sets in 2012
• #LEDs per TV is 900 in 2009- going down to 500 by 2012
22NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
General Illumination Opportunity: Cost & Efficiency
Need ~ 10x LED Cost Reduction for General IlluminationSource: DOE, SSL Program
23NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Source: DOE, SSL Program, Applied Materials
Efficiency of LED lighting is improving at ~10 lumens/wattNeed 10X LED cost reduction for HBLED general illumination
Opportunity in LED Lighting
24NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Improvements to Reach 10X Cost Reduction
Reducing HB LED$/lm
Manufacturing Cost≥ 2x reduction
$/m2
Luminous Efficacy ≥ 4x increase lm/m2
Luminous Efficiency
≥ 2x increaselm/watt
Power Density
≥ 2x increasewatts/m2
25NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Total LED Demand LED demand to grow at a 38% CAGR from 2009 – 2015 to
175B die. Backlighting application will continue to dominate Lighting to dominate growth at a 102% CAGR
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other 12.8 13.7 13.1 16.8 21.0 26.3 32.9 41.2
Lighting 0.7 1.0 5.1 9.2 10.8 20.5 29.0 33.3
Backlighting 13.8 20.7 37.4 51.0 67.5 87.8 96.4 100.1
0.020.040.060.080.0
100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0
Billi
ons
of L
EDs
www.ledmarketresearch.com
26NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Solar/PV and the 1970s Energy Crisis "I will soon submit legislation to Congress calling for the
creation of this Nation's first solar bank, which will help us achieve the crucial goal of 20 percent of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000." – Jimmy Carter, 1979
"The administration has significantly reoriented the country's approach to energy matters in the past 2 years." – Ronald Reagan, 1983
White House West Wing - 1984 White House West Wing - 1992
Installed1979
Removed1986
27NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
The Problem was the Economics…
0
20
40
60
80
100 Retail Electricity
Wind
Solar PV
Solar Thermal
Cen
ts P
er k
Wh
(Con
stan
t 200
0 C
urre
ncy)
Sources: NREL, DOE
Includes:No incentivesNo Carbon impact
Electricity Prices – 1980
28NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Solar PV Learning Curves: cSi and TF
$1
$10
$100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Cumulative Production (MWp)
Mod
ule
Pric
e (2
006
$/W
p)
Historical Prices
Source: Adapted from National Renewable Energy Laboratory
$1.00/W @ >100 GW
2007
1980
c-Si
Polysiliconshortage
> $1 per kWh equivalent PV electricity cost
2008
2009$2
=Cost / m2
Watt / m2$ Production / Watt
cSi
Common focus to drive down cost per watt
Broadest applications, dominant for
rooftopsThin Film 2007
2009
$1.00/W @ <20 GW
2008
ThinFilm
Ideal for large ground mounted systems due to cost and scale
29NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Behind the PV Learning Curve
=Cost / m2
Watt / m2$ Production / Watt
30NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Solar PV to Become Mainstream As it Approaches Grid Parity
1980s2009
2020 ?1. DEVELOPMENT(0 – 10GW)
2. SCALING(10 – 100GW)
3. MAINSTREAM(100GW+)
31NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Crystalline Silicon PV Value Chain
Poly-SiFeedstock
IngotProduction
CellProduction
ModuleAssembly
Distribution,Integration &Installation
MC
Cz
Wafer orSheet
ProductionWafering
Applied HCT Cropper Applied HCT (SRU)Applied HCT Squarer Applied HCT E500SD-B/5
32NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Improve Material Efficiency: Thin Wafers
Cost / m2
Watt / m2
* Cost assumes fixed silicon costs at $55/kg and constant efficiency
Kerf Loss
Wafer Thickness
$0.52 / Wp*$0.46 / Wp*
$0.42 / Wp*
$0.34 / Wp*
4 ingots concurrently Dual wire per motor
pair 20 m/sec wire speed ~ 24K wafers per cut* > 13MWp per year
Applied MaxEdge™
33NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Applied Baccini Cell Systems (BCS)
> 500 Lines InstalledLeading >20% Efficiency Cells Use Baccini Technology
Wafering Cell Manufacturing
Module Manufacturing
Ultra-thin wafer processing with low breakage (to 100 um)
Highest uptime with lowest wafer breakage
High throughput (1000-3000 wph)
Excellent alignment repeatability (~10 um)
Polysilicon & Ingot Manufacturing
34NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Falling Solar Prices Accelerate Path to Grid Parity
Total Global Installed Capacity ~15GW, New Capacity came on board in 2010 ~12-14 GW
35NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Range of Energy Storage Markets
(Low) Energy (High)
(Lar
ge)
Phy
sica
l Siz
e(S
mal
l)
Batteries for Portable Equipment(2Wh – 100Wh)
Flashlights, toys, power tools, portable radio and TV, mobile phones, camcorders, lap-top computers, memory refreshing, instruments,
cordless devices, wireless peripherals
Large Vehicle Batteries (1kWh – 1,000kWh)
Trucks, traction, locomotives, regenerative braking
Transportable Batteries(Starting, Lighting & Ignition)
(100Wh – 1,000Wh)Cars, trucks, buses, lawn mowers,
wheel chairs, robots
Stationary Batteries(0.25MWh – 5MWh)
Emergency power, local energy storage, remote relay stations, communication base stations,
uninterruptible power supplies (UPS).
Large Energy Storage(5MWh – 100MWh)
Frequency regulation, Spinning reserve, peak shaving, load leveling
UPS
Regenerative Braking
Miniature Batteries(100mWh – 2Wh)
Electric watches, calculators, implanted medical devices
37NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
TFB and TFB HVM Technology Technology: Potential to dominate µ-energy storage space
– Advantages: Small form factor, excellent cycle and shelf life, power density, safety and solder reflow compatibility
– Weaknesses: Use of shadow masks, thick layers, new materials, complexity with reactive layers
Applied’s Approach : Develop HVM compatible TFB technology:
TFB Schematic Drawing New Aristo PlatformSi IC Platform
Drive Cost Down to <$1/in2 with HVM Technology and Scale
38NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Application areas for TFB
Robust, rechargeable, micro-sized, solid state battery for µ-power Markets
Currently projected applications include:
10s µAh 10s mAh
Wireless SensorsAutomotiveEnergyHealthIndustrial
DevicesConsumerTelecomMedical
BackupReal time clocksMemory backup
Tagging/IDRFIDSmartCardsSecurID
5x5mm, smaller(50 µAh or less)
1 in2 or 25x25mm(~ 1mAh or greater) Stacked
(>10 mAh)
40NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
4040
Renewables Intermittency Demands for Grid Storage
As RPS mandates lead to high renewables penetration, Solar/ Wind intermittency’s impact on the grid can be addressed by a Smart Grid with Storage
Solar Wind
41NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Grid Storage Market – Economic Benefit Analysis
41
Energy Storage Business Opportunities are very Price Sensitive – U.S. Market
Sub
stat
ion
On-
site
Pow
erA
rea
Reg
ulat
ion
TOU
Ene
rgy
Cos
t Man
agem
ent R
esid
entia
l onl
y
TOU
Ene
rgy
Cos
t Man
agem
ent C
&I o
nly
T&D
Upg
rade
Def
erra
l (90
thP
erce
ntile
)
Load
Fol
low
ing
Win
d G
ener
atio
n G
rid In
tegr
atio
n, S
hort
Dur
Ele
ctric
Ser
vice
Rel
iabi
lity
Ele
ctric
Ser
vice
Pow
er Q
ualit
y
Ren
ewab
les
Cap
acity
Firm
ing
Win
d G
ener
atio
n G
rid In
tegr
atio
n, L
ong
Dur
Ele
ctric
Sup
ply
Cap
acity
Ele
ctric
Ene
rgy
Tim
e-sh
ift
T&D
Upg
rade
Def
erra
l 50th
Per
cent
ile
Dem
and
Cha
rge
Man
agem
ent
Vol
tage
Sup
port
Ren
ewab
les
Ene
rgy
Tim
e-sh
ift
Ele
ctric
Sup
ply
Res
erve
Cap
acity
Tran
smis
sion
Sup
port
Tran
smis
sion
Con
gest
ion
Rel
ief
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
0 100 200 300
$/kW
GW (over 10 years)
At ~$1,000 / kW, market potential is ~ 10 GW (excluding residential) / yrAnd ~ $10 Billion / yr
Pricing below $1,000 / kW & $100-350/kWh System Price enables new markets
Source: 2010 Eyer et. al. (Sandia) Energy Storage for the Electricity Grid
Current Price Range ~$2,200 to $3,500+ / kW
Over next 10 years Grid Storage is a $300B Global Market Opportunity but cost per kWh needs to go down from $1000/kWh to ~$100/kWh
42NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
HEV Battery Development Roadmap
• Source: Iwai Yamamoto, Mitsubishi Chemical Group,GIES Symposium 2008
700 Wh/kgCurrent cost$2000 /kWh
Improved batteryYear 2010Cost: ½
$1000 /kWh
Next generationbattery
Cost: 1/10?$200 /kWh
AdvancedBattery
Year 2015Cost: 1/7
$300 /kWh
Innovative batteryYear 2030~Cost: 1/40$50 /kWh
Focus is to Reduce Battery Cost/kWh from $2000 to $300-500 to Enable EV Applications
43NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Applied Materials Enables and Expands Markets by Driving Cost Reduction…. Price Experience Curves
1,E-07
1,E-06
1,E-05
1,E-04
1,E-03
1,E-02
1,E-01
1,E+12 1,E+14 1,E+16 1,E+18 1,E+20
Cumulated bits
DRAM
Pric
e [$
cent
s / b
it]
PEF 40%
1980 1990 2000 2008
Semiconductors Display
1%
10%
100%
1 10 100 1000Cumulated Display Area [million m2]
Relat
ive C
osts
[%]
PEF 35%
1997 2000 2005 2009
10%
100%
1000%
1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04
Cumulated Coated Glass [Mio m2]
Relat
ive C
oatin
g Co
sts
/ m2
PEF 17%
2000 200519901980
Coated Glass
Solar
44NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Energy Technology Markets
44
Li-Ion battery (~20%)
Solar PV (~25%)
LED(~24%)
Source: SIA, Display Search, Photon Consulting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, IIT Japan, Avicenne, BCC
GENERATION
CONSERVATION
STORAGE
demand
scale + technology
costreduction
CAGR ‘10 – ’13F
45NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Goal of Extreme Manufacturing Workshop
How do we translate inventions (world leading science and technology) to innovations (products & services thru manufacturing leadership, jobs and economic development)?
In Renewables, while manufacturing innovations address cost and performance, policy needs to play a critical role in creating demand and providing a competitive environment for long term investment for job creation
Call for Action:– Policy to foster innovation and economic development – Clear targets for direct Investments in US– A Comprehensive National RES standard and a roadmap
46NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
Summary and Conclusions Nanomanufacturing technology is
already the foundation of several large markets: Electronics & Display
Nanomanufacturing technology has the promise to translate the potential of nanotechnology to address the problems of key challenge of our generation: Energy and Environment
Promising opportunities exist across a number of applications in energy efficiency, generation and storage
– Glass, LED, PV, Batteries
Technology and Policy Innovations need to go hand in hand to create a vibrant economy based on Energy and Environment
47NIST Extreme Manufacturing 2011 - EXTERNAL USE
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION