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Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Page 1: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

Nam Songkhram model application and field work

National consultation with TNMC20th of April 2006, Bangkok

MRCS WUP-FIN

Page 2: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

2

Outline

Models applied and model areas Input data

• Cross sections• Field measurements• Satellite images• Etc.

HBV and VMod hydrological models• Calibration results• Validation results• Scenarios• VMod manual

3D Hydrodynamic model• Calibration results• Validation result• Scenarios• Development and continuation• 3D EIA model manual

Page 3: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Nam Songkhram application areas

Area: 13,126 km2

Elevation:• min 135 m amsl• max 675 m amsl

Page 4: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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HBV Hydrological Model

Simple lumped hydrological model

HBV model has been set up for five subcatchments in the Nam Songkhram watershed

The size of the model areas varies between 625 and 5029 km2

Simple optimisation of the model parameters completed with good results

Ban Tha Kok Daeng

Ban Tha Sri Chomchun

Ban Phok Yai

Ban Khon Sai

Ban Nong Yang

Page 5: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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VMod Hydrological model 2D distributed hydrological model

coupled with a 1D hydrodynamic river, reservoir and lake model

Physical model of the application area that takes into account variability in elevations, soil properties, vegetation, land use etc.

1 km model grid

Flow network computed from DEM and corrected

5 landuse classes and 5 soil classes

Calibration with five discharge stations is finished

Page 6: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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EIA 3D Hydrodynamic model 3D hydrodynamic model

coupled with a water quality model

500 m grid resolution for floodplain, 50-500 for rivers

3D hydrodynamics flood arrival time, duration and

depth in different locations of the modelled area, other flood characteristics

Water quality: sediment concentration, net-sedimentation, oxygen, etc

Run through a GIS-type graphical user interface

Page 7: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Input data

Models applied and model areas Input data

• Cross sections• Field measurements• Satellite images• Etc.

HBV and VMod hydrological models• Calibration results• Validation results• Scenarios• VMod manual

3D Hydrodynamic model• Calibration results• Validation result• Scenarios• Development and continuation• 3D EIA model manual

Page 8: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Input data status – Hydrological models

Digital elevation model• 50 m resolution

Landuse maps (several years, newestfrom 2002)

Soil map Weather data

• 16 precipitation stations• Temperature data from one

station• Evaporation, few stations

Flow and water level data• five stations 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

av

era

ge

mo

nth

ly r

ain

fall

su

m (

mm

) Waritchaphum

Ban Tha Kok Daeng

Bung Kan

Page 9: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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New data

Pumping data

Data from irrigation projets and structures

• Total volumes 675 million m3

• Most (520 million m3) is from Nam Oon

Water Quality data

Satellite images to show the flood extent

Field measurements

Ground water depth

Page 10: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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New data, cross sections

Cross sections

• 400 cross sections from Nam Songkhram and its tributaries

• Have now been digitalized and quality checked

• The general information of the cross sections was added to the model

130

132

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

132

134

136

138

140

142

144

-100 -50 0 50 100

Page 11: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Input data status – EIA 3D Hydrodynamic model

Digital elevation model• 50 m resolution

Channel cross-section data Landuse maps (several years,

newestfrom 2002)

Boundary conditions• Upstream (discharge): Ban Tha Kok

Daeng + sub-tributaries & Mekong upstream

• Downstream (rating curve): Mekong at Nakhom Phanom

Water level Flood extent based on satellite

images Field data

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

aver

age

mo

nth

yl d

isch

arge

(m3/s

)

Min

Avarage

Max

Page 12: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Field work at Ban Chai Buri - location

Page 13: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Current meter RCM9

Current speed Current direction Temperature Conductivity Pressure Turbidity Oxygen

Page 14: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Current speed & direction

Mekong

Current Speed at Ban Chai Burifrom 16 June to 28 August 2005

0

40

80

120

160

6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0

Time (Month)

Cu

rre

nt S

pe

ed

, cm

/s

Current Direction at Ban Chai Buri

from 16 Jun to 28 August 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0

Time (Month)

Cu

rre

nt d

ire

ctio

n, D

eg

.M

Water Level at Nakhon Phanomfrom 16 June to 28 August 2005

0

2

4

68

10

12

14

6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0

Time (Month)

Wa

ter

leve

l, m

Page 15: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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HBV and VMod hydrological models Models applied and model areas Input data

• Cross sections• Field measurements• Satellite images• Etc.

HBV and VMod hydrological models

• Calibration results• Validation results• Scenarios• VMod manual

3D Hydrodynamic model• Calibration results• Validation result• Scenarios• Development and continuation• 3D EIA model manual

Page 16: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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HBV calibration results

The R2 in calibration period (1987-1991) was 0.92 for Nam Songkhram at Ban Tha Kok Daeng 0.80 for Nam Oon at Ban Phok Yai 0.75 for Nam Yam at Ban Khon Sai 0.84 for Huai Khong at Ban Tha Sri Chomchun 0.86 for Huai Hi at Ban Nong Yang

red line observed, black line calculated

Page 17: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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HBV validation results

The R2 of the validation period (1992-1995) was 0.83 for Nam Songkhram at Ban Tha Kok Daeng 0.81 for Nam Oon at Ban Phok Yai 0.70 for Nam Yam at Ban Khon Sai 0.70 for Huai Khong at Ban Tha Sri Chomchun 0.76 for Huai Hi at Ban Nong Yang

red line observed, black line calculated

Page 18: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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VMod program: new developments

Pumping

• it is now possible to substract (or add) water from the river (for irrigation)

Regulation

• it is now possible to regulate lakes / reservoirs (Nam Oon reservoir)

Improvements in the model calculations

Page 19: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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VMod: New development in Nam Songkhram

River data and friction coefficients have been modified

Model has been calibrated

Water quality component has been included, but not yet calibrated

Preliminary (sensitivity) scenarios have been simulated

Page 20: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Calibration of the VMod application for Nam Songkhram is ready The R2 in calibration period (1989-1991) was

• 0.90 for Nam Songkhram at Ban Tha Kok Daeng• 0.69 for Nam Oon at Ban Phok Yai• 0.66 for Nam Yam at Ban Khon Sai• 0.78 for Huai Khong at Ban Tha Sri Chomchun• 0.82 for Huai Hi at Ban Nong Yang

VMod calibration

red line observed, black line calculated

Page 21: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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The R2 in test period (1992-1995) was• 0.86 for Nam Songkhram at Ban Tha Kok Daeng• 0.76 for Nam Oon at Ban Phok Yai• 0.78 for Nam Yam at Ban Khon Sai• 0.71 for Huai Khong at Ban Tha Sri Chomchun• 0.58 for Huai Hi at Ban Nong Yang

VMod verification

red line observed, black line calculated

Page 22: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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VMod manual

New version of the VMod manual has been prepared

Page 23: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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HBV and VMod hydrological models

Models applied and model areas Input data

• Cross sections• Field measurements• Satellite images• Etc.

HBV and VMod hydrological models• Calibration results• Validation results• Scenarios• VMod manual

3D Hydrodynamic model• Calibration results• Validation result• Scenarios• Development and continuation• 3D EIA model manual

Page 24: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Modelling: 3D new developments

Channel dimensions and elevations have been modified

Model parametrization has been modified to stabilize the model

Model has been calibrated and validated against satellite data from flood extent and water levels

Preliminary scenarios have been calculated

Page 25: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Flood duration

Flood arrival time

Page 26: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Calibration results

17/09/2000

Page 27: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Calibration results

04/11/2000

Page 28: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Verification results

20/09/2001

Page 29: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Effect of Mekong to Nam Songkhram

Backwater effect (Mekong prevents Nam Songkhram outflow)

• Has clear effect to flooded areas in Nam Songkhram

• The effects can be seen in the model simulations

Reverse flow (Mekong flows into Nam Songkhram)

• Depends on the size of the Mekong flood and on the timing of Mekong and Nam Songkhram floods

• Greatest when Mekong flood is ahead on the flood in Nam Songkhram

Page 30: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Flood depth-

Mekong water level low

Flood depth-

Mekong water level high

Page 31: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Reverse flow maximum 1999

Reverse flow maximum 1997

Page 32: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Scenarios

SRES A2 and B2 climate scenarios for 2070-2099 provided by Hoanh et al. (2003)

Climate change• A2: T = +4.0 C, E = +9.5 %, P = +6.6 %, Mekong = +17 %• B2: T = +2.9 C, E = +6.9 %, P = +0.9 %, Mekong = +6 %

Land use change• Decidious forest – 80 % (from 6 % to 1 %)

Upstream development• DSF upstream development scenario (high development)

Irrigation (upstream and in basin)• DSF upstream irrigation scenario + more irrigation in Nam

Songkhram (-5 % NS at BTKD, Nam Yam and Huai Hi)

Page 33: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Procedure

First changes made to VMod input data• Example of the Climate change scenario A2, results from VMod

VMod results used as a new boundary conditions to the EIA 3D model

River Dry season Wet season Maximum flow

Minimum flow

Nam Songkhram - 1 % + 5 % + 7 % - 13 %

Huai Hi - 6 % + 6 % + 8 % - 5 %

Huai Khong + 3 % + 6 % + 8 % - 4 %

Nam Oon - 14 % - 5 % - 2 % - 32 %

Nam Yam - 4 % + 0 % + 2 % - 6 %

Page 34: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Climate change A2

Baseline

20/08/2001

Page 35: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Baseline

Climate change B2

20/08/2001

Page 36: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Baseline

20/08/2001

Land use change

Page 37: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Baseline

05/08/1997

Upstream development

Page 38: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Baseline

05/08/1997

Irrigation

Page 39: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Future tasks

Calibrate the water level in the locations where data available

Calibrate the water quality and erosion components to the model

Clarify and execute official scenarios (e.g. irrigation, land use and climatological changes)

Page 40: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Potential use of the model set

Impact of the local and basin wide development on the flooding, water quality, etc

Impact of the climate change (better data of climate change scenarios from SEA START RC)

Landuse change impacts on the hydrology and water quality

Fisheries research Ecosystem functions and productivity issues

(productivity related to the flooded area, vegetation, water quality)

Model basis of the possible flood forecasting work

Page 41: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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Working paper

All the information collected there

Will be updated continuosly

Newest version by request

Page 42: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

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www.eia.fi/wup-fin

Content of the project’s two phases

Personnel & contact details

Documents downloadable

Training portfolio: presentations, documents, exercises

Page 43: Nam Songkhram model application and field work National consultation with TNMC 20th of April 2006, Bangkok MRCS WUP-FIN

MRCS/WUP-FINwww.eia.fi/wup-fin

Thank You!