Upload
alorius
View
271
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Perspectives on Suburban Development 2012
NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter
Antony P. Lorius
April 17th, 2012
Five Questions:
1. Where will the growth occur?2. What does the 2011 Census tell us?3. What is the impact of the Greenbelt?4. What are the effects of Provincial
planning policies (the Growth Plan)? 5. How will that affect development?
Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) will continue to grow rapidly
Cambridge
MississaugaMilton
Guelph
403
401
407
401
407
40
0
404
427410
Toronto
Developed Urban Area
Employment Areas
LBPIA
QEW
401
403
Brampton
407
401
407
427410
Toronto
Vaughan
Major Office Development
International Airports
Intermodal Yards
Future Transportation Corridors
QEW
401
403
Caledon
WaterlooKitchener
Brantford
Markham Whitby-Oshawa
Woodstock
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. NTS
Mississauga
Oakville
Burlington
Pickering-Ajax
Hamilton
Georgetown
GTAH 2011 6,820,000 3,440,000 2031 8,620,000 4,330,000GGH 2011 9,030,000 4,460,000 2031 11,500,000 5,560,000
Population Employment
Within GTAH, growth will continue to favour north and west 905 communities
Population Toronto
Durham
York Peel Halton Hamilton
GTAH
Share of Growth
2011 to 2031
19% 18% 24% 18% 15% 6% 100%
2031 Share of Total
36% 11% 17% 19% 9% 8% 100%
Employment
Toronto
Durham
York Peel Halton Hamilton
GTAH
Share of Growth
2011 to 2031
14% 13% 28% 23% 16% 8% 100%
2031 Share of Total
38% 8% 18% 20% 9% 7% 100%
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2012
Initial 2011 Census release indicates that population growth is on target
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2007. All figures rounded.
Variation Between 2011 Census Actual and Growth Plan Forecast Population
2011Forecast
2011Actual
Difference
GTAH Toronto Peel York Durham Halton Hamilton
6, 534,2002,625,5001,253,5001,026,100
609,600492,900526,500
6,573,7002,615,0001,296,0001,032,100
608,100501,700520,000
-39,500 (0.6%)10,500 (0.4%)-42,500 (3.3%)-6,000 (0.6%)1,500 (0.3%)-8,800 (1.8%)6,500 (1.3%)
Outer Ring 2,133,400 2,120,900 12,500 (0.6%)
Total GGH 8,667,600 8,694,600 -27,000 (0.3%)
Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2012. Rounded. Figures shown are the Census population and do not include net under-coverage
Greenbelt will not significantly restrict growth until well past 2031
Niagara Escarpment
Oak Ridges Moraine
Protected Countryside
ClaringtonKing
EastGwillimbury
WhitchurchStouffville
Uxbridge
Georgina
Scugog
Brock
Brampton
Mississauga
Oakville
Vaughan
Markham
Toronto
Pickering
Ajax
WhitbyRichmond
Hill
Newmarket
Aurora
Caledon
Burlington
HaltonHills
Milton
Niagara
Oshawa
Hamilton
GREENBELT PLAN AREA
Approximate Urban Land Requirement Beyond Existing Boundaries
Note: Map is not to scale
Provincial Growth Plan rules are the greater constraint to development
High density housing and employment to be directed to the Urban Growth Centres
After 2015, 40% of new residential units to be accommodated through intensification within the built-up area
Greenfield lands to be planned at a combined density of 50 residents and jobs per ha
Conversion of industrial and business park areas to be minimized
KawarthaLakes
Norfolk
Haldimand
GEORGIAN BAY
LAKE ONTARIO
Halliburton
Peterborough
Northumberland
Simcoe
YorkDurham
Peel Toronto
Dufferin
Wellington
Waterloo
Hamilton
Brant NiagaraOxford
Perth
Grey
Muskoka
Hastings
Halton
GTHAOuter RingUGC’S
NTS
Demand for industrial and business park land will remain strong
35% of employment growth 2011 to 2031
Over 20,000 acres of new sites
Providing adequate land supply will be the key challenge
Office market will continue to perform well
DURHAM
YORK
PEEL
HALTON
Employment Areas
TORONTO
Major Highways
25% of employment growth 2011 to 2031
Upwards of 50 million ft2 of new space
Major Office Concentrations Approximate Location of UGC’s
Challenge for retail will be new planning policies
Related closely to the geographic pattern of population growth
Development will be concentrated primarily in developed and developing urban areas
New planning policies envision a shift to more compact retail forms