Perspectives on Suburban Development 2012

NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter

Antony P. Lorius

April 17th, 2012

Five Questions:

1. Where will the growth occur?2. What does the 2011 Census tell us?3. What is the impact of the Greenbelt?4. What are the effects of Provincial

planning policies (the Growth Plan)? 5. How will that affect development?

Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) will continue to grow rapidly

Cambridge

MississaugaMilton

Guelph

403

401

407

401

407

40

0

404

427410

Toronto

Developed Urban Area

Employment Areas

LBPIA

QEW

401

403

Brampton

407

401

407

427410

Toronto

Vaughan

Major Office Development

International Airports

Intermodal Yards

Future Transportation Corridors

QEW

401

403

Caledon

WaterlooKitchener

Brantford

Markham Whitby-Oshawa

Woodstock

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. NTS

Mississauga

Oakville

Burlington

Pickering-Ajax

Hamilton

Georgetown

GTAH 2011 6,820,000 3,440,000 2031 8,620,000 4,330,000GGH 2011 9,030,000 4,460,000 2031 11,500,000 5,560,000

Population Employment

Within GTAH, growth will continue to favour north and west 905 communities

Population Toronto

Durham

York Peel Halton Hamilton

GTAH

Share of Growth

2011 to 2031

19% 18% 24% 18% 15% 6% 100%

2031 Share of Total

36% 11% 17% 19% 9% 8% 100%

Employment

Toronto

Durham

York Peel Halton Hamilton

GTAH

Share of Growth

2011 to 2031

14% 13% 28% 23% 16% 8% 100%

2031 Share of Total

38% 8% 18% 20% 9% 7% 100%

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2012

Initial 2011 Census release indicates that population growth is on target

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2007. All figures rounded.

Variation Between 2011 Census Actual and Growth Plan Forecast Population

2011Forecast

2011Actual

Difference

GTAH Toronto Peel York Durham Halton Hamilton

6, 534,2002,625,5001,253,5001,026,100

609,600492,900526,500

6,573,7002,615,0001,296,0001,032,100

608,100501,700520,000

-39,500 (0.6%)10,500 (0.4%)-42,500 (3.3%)-6,000 (0.6%)1,500 (0.3%)-8,800 (1.8%)6,500 (1.3%)

Outer Ring 2,133,400 2,120,900 12,500 (0.6%)

Total GGH 8,667,600 8,694,600 -27,000 (0.3%)

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2012. Rounded. Figures shown are the Census population and do not include net under-coverage

Greenbelt will not significantly restrict growth until well past 2031

Niagara Escarpment

Oak Ridges Moraine

Protected Countryside

ClaringtonKing

EastGwillimbury

WhitchurchStouffville

Uxbridge

Georgina

Scugog

Brock

Brampton

Mississauga

Oakville

Vaughan

Markham

Toronto

Pickering

Ajax

WhitbyRichmond

Hill

Newmarket

Aurora

Caledon

Burlington

HaltonHills

Milton

Niagara

Oshawa

Hamilton

GREENBELT PLAN AREA

Approximate Urban Land Requirement Beyond Existing Boundaries

Note: Map is not to scale

Provincial Growth Plan rules are the greater constraint to development

High density housing and employment to be directed to the Urban Growth Centres

After 2015, 40% of new residential units to be accommodated through intensification within the built-up area

Greenfield lands to be planned at a combined density of 50 residents and jobs per ha

Conversion of industrial and business park areas to be minimized

KawarthaLakes

Norfolk

Haldimand

GEORGIAN BAY

LAKE ONTARIO

Halliburton

Peterborough

Northumberland

Simcoe

YorkDurham

Peel Toronto

Dufferin

Wellington

Waterloo

Hamilton

Brant NiagaraOxford

Perth

Grey

Muskoka

Hastings

Halton

GTHAOuter RingUGC’S

NTS

Demand for industrial and business park land will remain strong

35% of employment growth 2011 to 2031

Over 20,000 acres of new sites

Providing adequate land supply will be the key challenge

Office market will continue to perform well

DURHAM

YORK

PEEL

HALTON

Employment Areas

TORONTO

Major Highways

25% of employment growth 2011 to 2031

Upwards of 50 million ft2 of new space

Major Office Concentrations Approximate Location of UGC’s

Challenge for retail will be new planning policies

Related closely to the geographic pattern of population growth

Development will be concentrated primarily in developed and developing urban areas

New planning policies envision a shift to more compact retail forms