The Future of the 905 Communities

NAIOP Greater Toronto Chapter

Antony P. Lorius

October 19th, 2011

Five Questions: Five Questions:

1.1. Where will the growth occur?Where will the growth occur?

2.2. What is the relationship between What is the relationship between Toronto and the 905 and how will it Toronto and the 905 and how will it change?change?

3.3. What is the plan for infrastructure?What is the plan for infrastructure?

4.4. What is the impact of the Greenbelt?What is the impact of the Greenbelt?

5.5. How will that affect development?How will that affect development?

Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) will continue to grow rapidly(GTAH) will continue to grow rapidly

Cambridge

MississaugaMilton

Guelph

403

401

407

401

407

40

0

404

427410

Toronto

Developed Urban Area

Employment Areas

LBPIA

QEW

401

403

Brampton

407

401

407

427410

Toronto

Vaughan

Major Office Development

International Airports

Intermodal Yards

Future Transportation Corridors

QEW

401

403

Caledon

WaterlooKitchener

Brantford

Markham Whitby-Oshawa

Woodstock

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. NTS

Mississauga

Oakville

Burlington

Pickering-Ajax

Hamilton

Georgetown

GTAH 2011 6,820,000 3,440,000 2031 8,620,000 4,330,000GGH 2011 9,030,000 4,460,000 2031 11,500,000 5,560,000

Population Employment

Location relative to US markets partly Location relative to US markets partly explains the historic patternexplains the historic pattern

US 219

I-69

I-87

I-75

GeorgianBay

Lake Ontario

Lake Erie

Ottawa River

St. Lawren

ce Rive

r

ONTARIO

U.S.A.

I-77

I-90

I-94

RochesterRochester

BuffaloBuffaloSarniaSarnia

MontrealMontreal

Albany

ChicagoChicago

ToledoToledo

Sault Ste. MarieSault Ste. Marie

I-90

Lake Huron

Lake Michigan

DetroitDetroit

U.S.A.

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. NTS

I-75 and I-69Auto and Manufacturing Corridors:Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennesseeand Alabama. Connections to Mexican manufacturing centres viaCiudad Juarez and Nuevo Laredo

I-77 and I-79Pittsburgh and Ohio Manufacturingcentres and points south

US 219Proposed NAFTA “Super-Highway”connecting Toronto to Atlantaand Miami

I-90 and I-87Proposed NAFTA “Super-Highway”connecting Toronto to Atlantaand Miami

I-94Chicago and uppermidwest. WesternCanada and USA

HamiltonHamilton

I-75

I-79

401TorontoToronto

Within GTAH, growth will continue to Within GTAH, growth will continue to favour favour north and west 905 communities north and west 905 communities

Population Population TorontTorontoo

DurhaDurham m

YorkYork Peel Peel HaltonHalton HamiltoHamiltonn

GTAHGTAH

Share of Share of Growth Growth

2011 to 20312011 to 2031

19%19% 18%18% 24%24% 18%18% 15%15% 6%6% 100%100%

2031 Share 2031 Share

of Total of Total 36%36% 11%11% 17%17% 19%19% 9%9% 8%8% 100%100%

EmploymeEmployment nt

TorontTorontoo

DurhaDurham m

YorkYork Peel Peel HaltonHalton HamiltoHamiltonn

GTAHGTAH

Share of Share of Growth Growth

2011 to 20312011 to 2031

14%14% 13%13% 28%28% 23%23% 16%16% 8%8% 100%100%

2031 Share 2031 Share

of Total of Total 38%38% 8%8% 18%18% 20%20% 9%9% 7%7% 100%100%

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. 2011

Toronto-905 relationship is already Toronto-905 relationship is already more balanced than commonly more balanced than commonly thoughtthought

152,000

74,000

9,300

102,000130,000

72,000

Commuting Flows 2006 Census

Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on 2006 Census Data

Infrastructure plans geared towards Infrastructure plans geared towards transit, but roads still matter transit, but roads still matter

Greenbelt will not significantly Greenbelt will not significantly restrict growth until well past 2031restrict growth until well past 2031

Niagara EscarpmentNiagara Escarpment

Oak Ridges MoraineOak Ridges Moraine

Protected Protected CountrysideCountryside

ClaringtonClaringtonKingKing

EastEastGwillimburyGwillimbury

WhitchurchWhitchurchStouffvilleStouffville

UxbridgeUxbridge

GeorginaGeorgina

ScugogScugog

BrockBrock

BramptonBrampton

MississaugaMississauga

OakvilleOakville

VaughanVaughan

MarkhamMarkham

TorontoToronto

PickeringPickering

AjaxAjax

WhitbyWhitbyRichmondRichmond

HillHill

NewmarketNewmarket

AuroraAurora

CaledonCaledon

BurlingtonBurlington

HaltonHaltonHillsHills

MiltonMilton

NiagaraNiagara

OshawaOshawa

HamiltonHamilton

GREENBELT PLAN AREAGREENBELT PLAN AREA

Approximate Urban Land Approximate Urban Land Requirement Beyond Requirement Beyond Existing Existing Boundaries Boundaries

Note: (Map is not to scale)Note: (Map is not to scale)

Conditions create an incredible Conditions create an incredible market opportunity for the City of market opportunity for the City of VaughanVaughan