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NAEFS Status and Future Plan
Yuejian Zhu
Ensemble team leaderEnvironmental Modeling Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Presentation for International S2S conference
February 14 2014
Forecast UncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate/Weather/Water
Weather Prediction Products
Climate PredictionProducts
Maritime
Maritime
Maritime
Forecast Lead Time
Forecast Lead Time
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlookLife & Prope
rty
Life & Prope
rty
Life & Prope
rty
Space Ope
ratio
nsSpace Ope
ratio
nsSpace Ope
ratio
ns
Recreatio
nRe
creatio
nRe
creatio
n
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Environm
ent
Environm
ent
Environm
ent
Emergency Mgm
t Em
ergency Mgm
t Em
ergency Mgm
t
Agriculture
Agriculture
Agriculture
Reservoir C
ontrol
Reservoir C
ontrol
Reservoir C
ontrol
Energy Plann
ing
Energy Plann
ing
Energy Plann
ing
Commerce
Commerce
Commerce
BenefitsHy
drop
ower
Hydrop
ower
Hydrop
ower
Fire W
eather
Fire W
eather
Fire W
eather
Health
Health
Health
HYDROLOGIC
PRODUCTS
Aviatio
nAv
iatio
nAv
iatio
n
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast UncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
CPC
Forecast Lead Time
Forecast Lead Time
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
TPCOPCHPC
SWPCAWCSPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8
Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8:
NDFD, Days 4 -7
6-10 Day ForecastMaritime
Maritime
Maritime
Life & Prope
rty
Life & Prope
rty
Life & Prope
rty
Space Ope
ratio
nsSpace Ope
ratio
nsSpace Ope
ratio
ns
Recreatio
nRe
creatio
nRe
creatio
n
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Environm
ent
Environm
ent
Environm
ent
Emergency Mgm
t Em
ergency Mgm
t Em
ergency Mgm
t
Agriculture
Agriculture
Agriculture
Reservoir C
ontrol
Reservoir C
ontrol
Reservoir C
ontrol
Energy Plann
ing
Energy Plann
ing
Energy Plann
ing
Commerce
Commerce
Commerce
Hydrop
ower
Hydrop
ower
Hydrop
ower
Fire W
eather
Fire W
eather
Fire W
eather
Health
Health
Health
Aviatio
nAv
iatio
nAv
iatio
n
Seasonal Predictions
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Forecast UncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Climate Forecast System*
Forecast Lead Time
Forecast Lead Time
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model
Hurricane Models
Global Forecast System
North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation
Dispersion Models for DHS-GFDL -WRF
NCEP Model Perspective
Maritime
Maritime
Maritime
Life & Prope
rty
Life & Prope
rty
Life & Prope
rty
Space Ope
ratio
nsSpace Ope
ratio
nsSpace Ope
ratio
ns
Recreatio
nRe
creatio
nRe
creatio
n
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Environm
ent
Environm
ent
Environm
ent
Emergency Mgm
t Em
ergency Mgm
t Em
ergency Mgm
t
Agriculture
Agriculture
Agriculture
Reservoir C
ontrol
Reservoir C
ontrol
Reservoir C
ontrol
Energy Plann
ing
Energy Plann
ing
Energy Plann
ing
Commerce
Commerce
Commerce
Hydrop
ower
Hydrop
ower
Hydrop
ower
Fire W
eather
Fire W
eather
Fire W
eather
Health
Health
Health
Aviatio
nAv
iatio
nAv
iatio
n
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
International project to produce operational multi‐center ensemble products
Bias correction and combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada &
USA
Generates products for:Weather forecastersSpecialized users
End users
Operational outlet for THORPEX research using TIGGE archive
StatementThe North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) combines state of
the art weather forecast tools, called ensemble forecasts, developed at the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). When combined, these tools (a) provide weather forecast guidance for the 1‐14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either of the two sets of tools separately; and (b) make a set of forecasts that are seamless across the national boundaries over North America, between Mexico and the US, and between the US and Canada. As a first step in the development of the NAEFS system, the two ensemble generating centers, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NWS and the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) of MSC started exchanging their ensemble forecast data on the operational basis in September 2004. First NAEFS probabilistic products have been implemented at NCEP in February 2006. The enhanced weather forecast products are generated based on the joint ensemble which has been undergone a statistical post‐processing to reduce their systematic errors.
NAEFS Milestones• Implementations
– First NAEFS implementation – bias correction – IOC, May 30 2006 Version 1– NAEFS follow up implementation – CONUS downscaling ‐ December 4 2007 Version 2– Alaska implementation – Alaska downscaling ‐ December 7 2010 Version 3– Implementation for CONUS/Alaska expansion – Q2FY14 Version 4
• Applications of NAEFS Statistical Post‐Processing:– NCEP/GEFS and NAEFS – at NWS– CMC/GEFS and NAEFS – at MSC– FNMOC/GEFS – at NAVY– NCEP/SREF – at NWS
• Publications (or references):– Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard, 2004: “ The Trade‐off in Bias
Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive” The First THORPEX International Science Symposium. December 6‐10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, P281‐284.
– Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2006: “GFS bias correction” [Document is available online]– Zhu, Y., B. Cui, and Z. Toth, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast
System (NAEFS)” [Document is available online]– Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2012: "Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast" Weather and
Forecasting, Vol. 27 396‐410 – Cui, B., Y. Zhu , Z. Toth and D. Hou, 2013: "Development of Statistical Post‐processor for NAEFS”
Weather and Forecasting (In process)– Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
(NAEFS)” [Document is available online]– Zhu, Y, and Y. Luo, 2013: “Precipitation Calibration Based on Frequency Matching Method (FMM)”.
Weather and Forecasting (in process)– Glahn, B., 2013: “A Comparison of Two Methods of Bias Correcting MOS Temperature and Dewpoint
Forecasts” MDL office note, 13‐1
8
NCEP CMC NAEFSModel GFS GEM NCEP+CMC
Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKFModel
uncertainty/StochasticYes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physics
and stochastic)Yes
Tropical storm Relocation NoneDaily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC
Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55kmT190L42 (d8-16)~70km
600*300 (66km)L72
1*1 degree
Control Yes Yes Yes (2)Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle
Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 daysPost-process Bias correction
(same bias for all members)
Bias correction for each member
Yes
Last implementation February 14th 2012 February 13 2013
NAEFS Current StatusUpdated: February 13 2013
9
NCEP/GEFS raw forecast
NAEFS final products
4+ days gain from NAEFS
From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC
10
From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC
NAEFS final products
NCEP/GEFS raw forecast
8+ days gain
NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod: January 1st – December 31st 2012
GFS – 8.0d
GEFS – 9.5d
NAEFS – 9.85d
Summary of 6th NAEFS workshop1‐3 May, 2012 Monterey, CA
6th NAEFS workshop was held in Monterey, CA during 1‐3 May 2012. There were about 50 scientists to attend this workshop whose are from Meteorological Service of Canada, Mexico Meteorological Service, UKMet, NAVY, AFWA and NOAA.
Following topics have been presented and discussed during workshop:•Review the current status of the contribution of each NWP center to NAEFS•For each NWP center, present plans for future model and product updates, for both the base models and ensemble system (including regional ensembles)•Decide on coordination of plans for the overall future NAEFS ensemble and products (added variables, data transfer for increased resolution grids, FNMOC ensemble added to NAEFS, especially for mesoscale ensemble‐NAEFS‐LAM)•Learn about current operational uses of ensemble forecast guidance, including military and civilian applications.
14
NUOPC – National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability.
The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation’s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions.
The NUOPC Tri‐Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the next‐generation National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system.
10‐day forecast
Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height:
30‐day running mean scores of day‐10 CRPS skill scoreRMS error and ratio of RMS error / spreadAnomaly correlation
All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/naefs/VRFY_STATS/T30_P500HGT
AC score CRPS
RMS error
16
Research and Operational ApplicationsIn Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html
Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth (NCEP) Acknowledgements:
Glenn Rutledge (NCDC), Andre Methot (MSC), Michel Rosengaus (NMSM), Dan Collins, Bo Cui, Richard Wobus(NCEP)
NAEFS & THORPEX• Expands international collaboration
– Mexico joined in November 2004– FNMOC joined in 2009 (NUOPC)
• Provides framework for transitioning research into operations– Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system: – Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
THORPEX Interactive GrandGlobal Ensemble (TIGGE)
North American EnsembleForecast System (NAEFS)
Articulatesoperational needs
TransfersNew methods
18
week-1 week-2 one month
GEFS/NAEFSservice CFS
service
Weather/Climate linkage
NCEP/GEFS is running on T254L42 resolution with tuned ETR initial perturbations and adjusted STTP scheme for 21 ensemble members, forecast out to 16 days and 4 cycles per day, planning to extended to 45 days at lower horizontal resolution, 00UTC only (coupled). NAEFS will consider to include FNMOC ensemble in the future, with improving post process which includebias correction, dual resolution and down scaling
Main eventMJO
Future Seamless Forecast System
Operational CFS has been implemented in2011 with T126L64 atmospheric modelresolution (CFSv2, 2010version) which is fully coupled with land, ocean and atmosphere(GFS+MOM4+NOAH), 4 members per day (using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions, one day older?), integrate out to 9 months.
IMME and NMME - ???
Main products:1. Probabilistic forecasts for every
6-hr out to 16 days, 4 times per day: 10%, 50%, 90%, ensemble mean, mode and spread.
2. D6-10, week-2 temperature and precipitation probabilistic mean forecasts for above, below normal and normal forecast
3. MJO forecast (week 3 & 4 … )
Main products:
ENSO predictions???Seasonal forecast???
SEAMLESS
The quality of NAEFS week‐2
forecast Has been
confirmed by CPC
Reforecast ‐ the facts and expectations • 25+ years GEFS reforecast data are available for testing and applications.
– It is the same model/resolutions as current operational GEFS– Once per day at 00UTC, 11 members only
• The values have been demonstrated:– Overall benefits: mainly studied for surface temperature and precipitation –
ESRL/PSD– Improving the reliabilities and skills of 6‐10 days, week‐2’s temperature and
precipitation forecast – CPC, ESPL/PSD– Help to enhance the ability of extreme forecast, hazard outlook and precipitation
guidance – WPC, ESRL/PSD– Improving extended range temperature forecast for transition seasons (Spring and
Fall mainly) through comparing current NAEFS SPP products – EMC– Improving precipitation forecast accuracy and reliability; applications of analog
QPF/PQPF and model climatology via “extreme forecast index” – WR/regions, ESRL/PSD
• Expectations from users– Running in real time when the model upgrade– Optimum configuration to minimize the cost, maximize the benefits– Special session discussion in Dec. 2013 (NPSV)– Will discuss in coming “6th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop”
Future Plans• Improving numerical forecast system
– Resolutions– Initial perturbations– Model uncertainties (include surface perturbations)
• NAEFS extension– Increasing memberships (and models)– Extended to 30 days to cover week 3&4– Coupling ocean‐atmosphere
• Post processing– Real time reforecast– Improving methodologies– Higher moment calibration
• International collaboration– THORPEX legacy ‐ S2S, GIFS‐TIGGE(?)– Other centers
NCEP CMC FNMOCModel GFS GEM Global Spectrum
Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF (9) Banded ETModel uncertainty
StochasticYes (STTP) Yes (multi-physics and
Stochastic)None
Tropical storm Relocation None NoneDaily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC
Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55kmT190L42 (d8-16)~70km
600*300 (66km)L72
T159L42 ~ 80km
Control Yes Yes NoEnsemble members
20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle
Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours)Post-process Bias correction for
ensemble meanBias correction for
each memberBias correction for
member meanLast
implementation February 14 2012 February 13 2013 NAVGEM
implementation on February 13 2013
NUOPC Current StatusUpdated: February 13 2013