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NOV 2013
CALFIRE North Network
BY:CDR Anton Orr (USN)
Capt Ryan Colton (USMC)Capt Taylor Williams (USMC)
2
Background
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• California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection• 2 regions North and South Region• 21 HQ units within all of CAL FIRE• 228 Fire Stations
• Area of Responsibility• 31 million Acres• 35 counties
• Budget • $1.05 Billion• Fire Suppression costs ~ $165 Million
• Average Yearly Responses• Wildland Fires – above 5,600• Non-Wildland Fire Emergencies – more than 350,000
Background
4
Units Modeled
• Calfire Northern Region– 21 Ground and Air Bases• Air Assets - # / operational cost per hour• Air Attack (OV-10 Bronco) : 6 / $1100 • Air Tanker (S-2T): 10 / $2100 • Helicopter w/Fire Crew (UH-1H) : 6 / $1750
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Units Modeled
• Ground Assets: # / operational cost per hour: • Engines: 190 / $80• Fire Crews: 85 / $85• BullDozers: 32 / $100
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Most Likely Fire Locations
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• F1: Wildlake• F2: Redding• F3: Clearlake
Problem
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Problem StatementCalfire has an expansive area of responsibility and a
limited number of resources to deal with fires that arise within its AOR. What is the optimal way to utilize the
resources that Calfire has, minimizing the operating costs and providing the service they are charged with delivering?
Road Node Map
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Ground/Air Bases Map
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Ground Air
Complete Fire Map
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Nodes and Edges
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• Nodes (64 total):• Ground Nodes - Fire houses • Air Nodes - Fire airports • Transportation Nodes - Major intersections throughout Northern California• Fire Nodes - 3 highly probable areas within Nor Cal that will have wildfires
• Has 4 additional Fire locations within the model
• Edges (321 total)• Air movement – Air Assets travel from Air Node direct to Fire Node• Ground movement:
• Fire House Node -> Road Node (< 30 miles)• Road Node -> Road Node (transit network)• Road Node -> Fire Node (< 30 miles)
Abstract Network
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Formulation
• Multi-Commodity Flow model– Obj Function: (
– : Cost of moving commodity (k) on arc (i, j)– : Number of commodity (k) moved on arc (i,j)– : Activation cost of commodity (k) – : Number of commodity (k) assigned to fire (j)
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Measures of Effectiveness
• Primary– Cost to respond to fires
• Secondary– Number of fires Northern CAL FIRE is able to
deal with
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Model
• Cost (Initialization + Travel) – Each asset has an initialization cost (– The travel cost is variable based upon distance from home base
to fire location ()
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Model
• Capabilities– Each asset is assigned fire fighting capability based on utility
they bring to fight fires (proxy is gallons of water):• Air Tanker: 1500• Air Assault: 100• Helo: 500• Crew: 10 • Engine: 150• Dozer: 40
• Fire Demand:– Each Fire has certain amount of capability that needs to be
satisfied (demand)• All of these are uniform R.V. between 2000 and 3000 units of capability
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Model Output
Optimization Model• What is Optimal mix of commodities to utilize
and what is the min cost?
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Analysis(Optimal Output)
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Resilience Curve for Fire Costs
Cost
Number of Fires
Fir
e Su
ppre
ssio
n C
ost (
$K)
Optimal Commodity and locations for 1 FireAir node = Grass Valley1 Air Tanker
Ground Node = Nevada-Yuba Unit4 crews2 Dozers4 Engines
Optimal Solution For 7 Fires:Total Air Assets: 1 Air Attack7 Air Tankers
40 Crews14 Dozers40 Engines
Number of Fires Cost ($K)0 $ 01 $ 42.22 $ 96.03 $ 147.24 $ 193.65 $ 239.56 $ 296.37 $ 361.7
Attacks
Second Scenario • What happens when weather affects flights
ops?– How is cost affected?– How is capability affected?
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Analysis (Attack-No Air Avail)
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
$400.0
Resilience for Costs w/o Air Assets
Cost
w/o Air
Number of Fires
Fir
e Su
ppre
ssio
n C
ost (
$K)
Number of Fires Cost w/o Air percentage0 $0.0 $0.0 01 $42.2 $47.1 11.5%2 $96.0 $105.0 9.4%3 $147.2 $157.5 7.0%4 $193.6 $205.5 6.2%5 $239.5 $253.1 5.7%6 $296.3 7 $361.7
Optimal solution for 1 Fire:Air Node = NAGround Node = Nevada Unit 14 Engines 2 Dozers5 Crews
Sonoma unit9 Crews
Attack
- How many major wildfires can we fight?• Increase Attack Size• Increase R.V. for Fire Demand
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Analysis (Attack- Increase Fire Demand)
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Optimal Solution for 1 Fire:
Demand: 10858 unitsSupplied: 12000 units
Optimal Solution for 4 Fires:
Demand: 49332 unitsSupplied: 30430 units
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Resilience Curve - Capability Provided/Req’d
proportion
Number of Fires
Prop
ortio
n of
Cap
abili
ty
How many more assets do I need to contain 4 Major Wildfires up to 100%- 5 AT - 5 HC - 50 Crews, Dozers, Engines
Follow on Work
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• Utility of assets incorporated into MOEs• Improve granularity of assets/transit edges
– Add additional fire fighting units
• Restrictions on mobility of air assets• Incorporate Southern Region and Reserves
– If north is exhausted how can Southern region affect the fight?
Just to Remember
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QUESTIONS?
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Sources
• http://firefighterblog.com/files/2010/07/CAL_FIRE_logo_large.jpg• http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/06/pictures/130605-powerhouse-wil
dfire-forestfire-california-photo/#/california-wildfire-powerhouse-firefighters_68142_600x450.jpg
• http://www.theepochtimes.com/news_images/highres/2008-7-5-california_fires_81828250.jpg ( question photo)
• http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/photos/2008/10/016098.html (intro photo)
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