MYANMAR PARTNER ENGAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES

SUPPORT FOR INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT, HYDRO-INFORMATICS AND HYDRO-METEOROLOGY IN THE AYEYARWADY RIVER BASIN

Phase 1 – Fast-tracked activities 9th September, 2016

Page 2 of 20

The Australian Water Partnership (AWP) is pleased to

announce its commitment to support the Government of

Myanmar advance Integrated Water Resources

Management (IWRM) in the Ayeyarwady basin.

Timing is unique as Myanmar transitions to democracy and

re-engages economic ties with the region and the world for

the first time after decades of military rule. Having

sustained the livelihoods of the people of Myanmar for

centuries, the country’s wealth of natural resources stands

at a point of inflection. How these resources are managed

will have major implications on the economic performance

of the nation as well as on the security of the livelihood-base

for more than 35 million people living in the cities, towns

and villages of the Ayeyarwady River Basin.

Under the auspices of a Memorandum of Understanding

(MOU) between Myanmar and Australia, the Myanmar

National Water Resources Committee (NWRC) has

requested support from the Australian Water Partnership

(AWP) in a number of areas related to integrated river

basin planning, water resources modelling and assessments,

hydro-informatics and hydro-meteorology.

This document outlines the context for AWPs support to

Myanmar and the first phase of activities which AWP

intends to mobilise through its Australian partners during

the last quarter of 2016.

A partner webcast is scheduled on

Wednesday 14th September (11:00 – 12:00).

AWP will introduce partners to the Myanmar work program

and provide an opportunity for Australian partners to ask

questions and discuss further details. Activity specific work

plans will be released over the coming weeks, according to

the schedule included in this document.

>

Page 3 of 20

> Background

The Republic of the Union of Myanmar has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Australian Government on 6 November, 2015. The purpose of the MOU is to facilitate long term cooperation between the two countries in the field of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) specifically to ensure development of Myanmar’s river basin’s are developed and managed in accordance with international best-practice in IWRM. The MOU recognises the importance of knowledge and information management as critical ingredients for effective IWRM and specifically identifies hydroinformatics and hydro-meteorology as key “early enablers” of this agenda.

The MOU was signed by the National Water Resources Committee (NWRC) on behalf of the Government of Myanmar, and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) on behalf of Australia. The NWRC is chaired by the Vice-President of Myanmar and represents the peak inter-ministerial body in the country tasked with coordinating and integrating development planning and policy reform.

Recognising the strengths and expertise of Australian Water Partnership (AWP) members in hydroinformatics, river basin planning and hydro-meteorology, the Government of Myanmar requests support from the AWP to implement the main activities planned under the Myanmar-Australia MOU workplan for its first phase 2016 – 2017.

The activities identified for 2016/17 are centred on adding value and enriching the Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management (AIRBM) Project1 - a five year USD 100 million dollar project under implementation by the National Water Resources Committee (NWRC) with loan financing from the World Bank. The AIRBM Project contains three components:

Component 1. Water Resource Management, Decision Support System (DSS) and capacity building – implemented by the Hydro-Informatics Centre (HIC).

Component 2. Hydromet and information systems modernisation, implemented by the Department of Meteorology & Hydrology (DMH).

Component 3. Navigation enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River, implemented by the Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems (DWIR).

Alignment of the AWP support with the AIRBM Project will allow for mutually beneficial leveraging of Australian and Myanmar resources for a deeper success in catalysing IWRM of Myanmar’s most important river basin – the Ayeyarwady.

> Support requested by AWPs Myanmar partners

In June 2016, the Government of Myanmar submitted a formal request to AWP for support in a number of areas related to river basin planning, hydro-informatics and

1 see supplementary materials for more information on AIRBM

Page 4 of 20

hydro-meteorology. The support request covered the period September 2016 – December 2017 and was mainly focussed on three agencies:

Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems(DWIR): DWIR has the mandate to conserve and manage the waterresources and river systems of Myanmar. It is also the secretariat for theNWRC and the implementing agency for the AIRBM Project, housing thePMU within its Yangon office compound.

The Hydro-Informatics Centre (HIC): HIC is a newly established agencyunder the NWRC and undertakes the strategic, technical assessments toinform decision making of the NWRC. HIC is leading implementation ofAIRBM Project Component 1 and is responsible for the development of theAyeyarwady River Basin Master Plan as well as being the custodian for thenascent Decision Support System (DSS) under implementation as part ofthe AIRBM project.

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH): Under theMinistry of Transport and Communications, DMH has the mandate tomonitor the hydro-meteorological regime in Myanmar and provideinformation to the country on weather and climate related issues such asrainfall, water levels, flood , droughts, cyclones, and tsunami’s.

The areas of support requested are summarised in Table 1 below.

Table 1 – Main elements of support from AWP requested by Government of Myanmar

No. Support requested Main Myanmar

partner Approx. Period of implementation

1 Ayeyarwady – Murray Darling Basin twinning relationship NWRC, DWIR, HIC 2016 -

2 DMH – Bureau of Meteorology twinning relationship DMH 2016 -

3 Myanmar Young Water Professionals (YWP) capacity building program

HIC 2016/17

4

Ayeyarwady State of the Basin Assessment (SOBA) process

Coordination

Technical inputs, including baseline assessments and surface water modelling

peer-review

HIC, DWIR 2016/17

5 Ayeyarwady Basin Development Scoping Study (BDSS) HIC 2016/17

6 Development of flow forecasting tools & capacity building DMH, HIC 2017

7

Capacity building for hydrological monitoring in the Ayeyarwady Basin

Rapid data audit & quality assessment of historichydrological monitoring data

Training and pilot review of station rating curves

Training in hydrographic field survey techniques

DMH, HIC 2016/17

8 Hydrological modelling for a regional drought mechanism DMH 2017

Page 5 of 20

> Overview of the opportunities for AWPs Australian

partners

Based on the request for support from the Government of Myanmar, the AWP has developed a series of activities which have been approved for funding and implementation through its Australian partners, fostering collaboration between those Australian partners and AWPs Myanmar partners (NWRC, DWIR, DMH, and HIC).

A delegation of Senior Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) specialists travelled to Myanmar form 22 to 26 August 2016 to launch the twinning relationship and to design some of the key activities AWP intends to fast-track. In addition AWP has mobilised from its Australian partner base a coordinator who is supporting GOM design, coordinate and manage implementation of the Australian support and ensure coordination with other initiatives of the GOM such as the AIRBM Project and GOM bilateral projects with Government of Netherlands.

Through these efforts, seven activities have been designed and fast-tracked for implementation before December 2017. An overview of each activity is presented below.

>> Activity-1 – Hydrological data audit and capacity

building in data management

GOM partner: DMH, HIC

Type of engagement:

Open partner engagement (i.e. open to all Australian partners to apply)

Mobilisation date:

17th October, 2016

Period of Implementation:

17th October 2016 – 31st January 2017

Main tasks: - Rapid data audit and assessment of historic hydrologicalmonitoring data.

- preparation of data ready for SOURCE model development(refer to Activity 2)

- Training and pilot review of monitoring station ratingcurves

- Training in hydrographic field survey techniques

Outputs: 1. Data Audit Report2. Field guide for setting up and maintain hydrological

monitoring stations3. Consolidated Hydrological database for the Ayeyarwady,

including meta-data, including preparation of SOURCEinput data files.

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) currently operates 70 hydrological monitoring stations throughout the Ayeyarwady River Basin with the

Page 6 of 20

majority of these water level gauging stations dating back several decades. In recent years, Governments of India and Norway have provided some support to DMH to deploy modern telemetric monitoring technology at ~ 15 stations; however the majority of the stations remain under manual operation, often situated in highly variable hydrological, and highly mobile, channel conditions.

The wealth of hydrological and climate information managed by DMH will play a critical role in river basin planning process HIC is implementing as part of the AIRBM Project. Specifically, time series data on temperature, rainfall, water levels, discharge, and flooding will form the primary inputs for the development of a river basin hydrological model and a water resources baseline assessment scheduled for development during Sept 2016 – June 2017.

In light of this, GOM requests from the AWP for a comprehensive review of hydrological data and capacity building for DMH and HIC staff in quality control and enhanced monitoring techniques, including:

(i) Hydrological Data Audit: At present the quality of DMHs hydrological data setis unknown. As part of the efforts to modernise the hydro-meteorological datasystem under implementation through the AIRBMP project, DMH intends toundertake a comprehensive quality assessment of the historic monitoring datato understand discontinuity in the time-series as well as hydrologicalassessment of the data. In support of this modernisation effort, DMH requestssupport from AWP for a hydrologist with experience designing andimplementing QC/QA assessments of hydrological data to lead and train a teamof DMH hydrologists in a review of the data base. The support would include areview of data quality assessment techniques and recommendation of themost appropriate approach for Myanmar. The findings of the review andconsolidated data base of hydrological data will be a critical input into anumber of activities under the SOBA process, including for the development ofthe SOURCE model included in other activities funded by AWP and described inthis document.

(ii) Support to DMH for a pilot review of selected rating curves: As part of theefforts to modernise the hydro-meteorological data system underimplementation through AIRBMP project, DMH intends to undertake acomprehensive review of rating curves for gauging stations in the ARB. This isconsidered a priority for the hydrological monitoring data given the highlydynamic geomorphological conditions of the Ayeyarwady where hydraulicgeometry of cross-sections is expected to change on a near-annual basis. Insupport of this modernisation effort, DMH requests support from AWP for ahydrologist with experience designing and implementing rating curve reviewsto lead and train a team of DMH hydrologists in a combined qualitative andquantitative rating review for a small number of pilot sites deemed to be ofstrategic significance. The support would include a review a various ratingcurve review techniques and recommendation of the most appropriateapproach for Myanmar.

(iii) Capacity-building of DMH staff in field survey techniques: DMH has two SonteckM9 River Surveyors and intends to procure additional survey equipment underthe AIRBM Project. DMH requests support from AWP to provide competentfield hydrologists who can train DMH field officers in best-practice techniquesfor setting up and operating hydrological survey equipment. Support wouldinclude a hands-on training program that builds capacity of the DMH team insurvey techniques. With more trained field officers, DMH will then be able toexpand both the quality and quantity of its hydrological observation network.

Page 7 of 20

>> Activity -2 – Surface water resource baseline

assessment

GOM partner: HIC, DWIR

Type of engagement:

Open partner engagement (i.e. open to all Australian partners to apply)

Mobilisation date:

1st November, 2016

Period of Implementation:

1st November 2016 – 30th June 2017

Main tasks: - SOURCE Model development for the Ayeyarwady Basin- Surface water resources baseline assessment- Surface water uses baseline assessment- Simulation of ‘exploratory scenarios’

Outputs: 1. SOURCE model for the Ayeyarwady basin2. Model calibration and ‘exploratory scenarios’ Report3. Surface Water resources & use baseline assessment

report

Given the level of Australian experience in basin water balance modelling for water resource assessments, assistance is sought to develop a comprehensive baseline of surface water resources, hydrological processes and water use for the Ayeyarwady Basin, covering. This activity is designed as an input in the baseline assessment process under implementation as the first step towards an Ayeyarwady Basin Master Plan. This activity will fill specific information gaps and take stock of status and trends for two main areas of the SOBA Report:

1) Surface water resource baseline assessment: Under a surface waterbaseline assessment, the objective of the assignment is to take stock ofthe status and trends for key characteristics of the basin’s hydrology andwater resource, including their use, and to analyse these trends andassess their implications for the Ayeyarwady system.

2) Development of an initial model for the hydrological and catchmentprocesses of the Ayeyarwady River Basin: The objective of thiscomponent is to develop an initial suite of linked models capable ofresolving the hydrological and catchment processes at the basin-scale.The models should be utilise Australia’s SOURCE modelling platform.

Model development will be a collaborative, capacity building activity that will require close collaboration and training with HIC and DWIR technical staff.

3) Quantification of the changes in hydrology and sediment transport forexploratory scenarios: In addition to the characterisation of historicprocesses and trends in biophysical and socioeconomic parameters, theSOBA report will also extend understanding of the Ayeyarwady systemby exploring its sensitivity to change. The exploratory scenarios willinclude: (i) baseline conditions, (ii) a ‘do-nothing’ condition, i.e. a

Page 8 of 20

projected baseline, and (iii) climate change conditions (wet, dry, median and more variable).

A multi-disciplinary team of engineers, scientists, economists, civil society representatives and planners will then undertake a rapid expert-judgement based assessment of the implications of these trends across ecological, economic, livelihood, cultural and security concerns. The role of the Activity 2 team will be to quantify the hydrological and sediment transport changes for each ‘exploratory scenario’ as an input to the rapid expert-judgement impact assessment.

>> Activity -3– Ayeyarwady basin water pollution risk

survey

GOM partner: HIC

Type of engagement:

Open partner engagement (i.e. open to all Australian partners to apply)

Mobilisation date:

1st January, 2016

Period of Implementation:

1st January 2016 – 30th June 2017

Main tasks: - Spatial analysis and inventory of pollution sources (urban,agricultural, mining, industrial)

- Characterisation of pollution loads- ‘hot-spot’ hazard mapping of pollution risks by type- Characterisation of water pollution “zones of influence”

downstream of sources, using SOURCE catchment model.

Outputs: 1. Water Pollution risks report2. Maps and associated pollution spatial

database/inventory.

Water pollution is a growing issue for the Ayeyarwady basin and a highly visible concern for local communities as industry; mining and agriculture transform the sub-catchment water quality signature. However, with only ad-hoc pollution monitoring in the basin, understanding of the fate and transport of chemical pollutants in the surface and groundwater system remains poorly understood.

Australian assistance is sought to circumvent this data shortage by undertaking a spatially disaggregated assessment of potential pollutant loading based on economic and geospatial data on the location, scale and activity of industrial, urban, mining and agricultural activities. This support will utilise a co-efficient based approach to link specific water pollutants with the type and size of the activity generating hot spot risk- maps for key pollutants and characterising how these hot-spots change over time. Information on pollution will be consolidated into a spatial database which will be handed over to HIC for integration into a broader Water Information System for Data Management (WISDM), under development within the AIRBM Project. As needed, the activity will also require use of Geo-spatial techniques to develop the inventory of pollution sources.

Page 9 of 20

The activity will also explore the possibility of developing a SOURCE catchment model and coupling with the pollution database to quantify pollutant load and transport. This would allow for the characterisation of “zones of influence” for main pollution sources downstream of the source.

Implementation of this activity will require close collaboration with a Socio-economic baseline assessment under contract by AIRBM PMU as part of the SOBA activities. The pollution risk survey will rely on the economic data from industries, agriculture and urban areas collected by the socio-economic baseline assessment. Likewise the findings of the pollution risk assessment will be provided as an input into a number of SOBA packages such as socio-economics, groundwater, biodiversity and fisheries who will then use this information to enrich their thematic baselines.

>> Activity -4– Ayeyarwady basin ecosystem services

evaluation

GOM partner: HIC

Type of engagement:

Open partner engagement (i.e. open to all Australian partners to apply)

Mobilisation date:

1st January, 2016

Period of Implementation:

1st January 2016 – 30th June 2017

Main tasks: - Review of ecosystem services in the Ayeyarwady Basin- Rapid valuation of ecosystem services, including an

estimate of Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) as acomplementary measure to GDP.

Outputs: 1. Ecosystem Services Evaluation Report2. Training materials in economic valuation methodologies

for natural resources.

Ecosystem services and products remain vital to the livelihoods of millions of people living within the Ayeyarwady Basin. Recent estimates indicate that between 1995 and 2010, Myanmar has lost 35% of its Natural Capital6, effectively eroding the natural systems underlying communities. In part these losses result from a poor understanding of the economic value of ecosystem services. Assistance is sought to help HIC value the ecosystem services of the Ayeyarwady as part of the SOBA Report. Experts in environmental economics would support HIC undertake this evaluation exploring novel indices of value that Australia has been experimenting with, such as the Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP).

Implementation of the activity would be in close collaboration with the HIC team and include a strong element of capacity building so that HIC and DWIR technical specialists are exposed and trained in the application of rapid ecosystem valuation techniques.

6 UNU-IHDP and UNEP (2012) The Inclusive wealth report 2012. Measuring progress towards sustainability. Cambridge: Cambridge

University Press www.inclusivewealthindex.org

Page 10 of 20

>> Activity -5 – Ayeyarwady Basin Development Scoping

Study (ABDSS)

GOM partner: HIC

Type of engagement:

Open partner engagement (i.e. open to all Australian partners to apply)

Mobilisation date:

1st January, 2016

Period of Implementation:

1st January 2016 – 31st October 2017

Main tasks: - Stakeholder visioning- Identification of development scenarios- Upgrade of SOURCE model (see Activity 1`) and simulation

of scenarios.- Integrated environmental, social and economic assessment

of scenarios- Recommendations for the Ayeyarwady Basin Master

Planning Process

Outputs: 1. ABDSS Final Report

The Ayeyarwady Basin Development Scoping Study (ABDSS) will act as a bridge between baseline understanding of the system and the future Ayeyarwady Basin Master plan, by exploring a range of potential development options and pathways for the basin. Drawing on Australia’s experience with river basin planning in the Murray-Darling and other highly utilised river basins within Australia, assistance is sought to utilise the SOURCE model platform to undertake a rapid assessment of boundary and development scenarios for the Ayeyarwady basin to identify a set of basin development pathways that take into account current development, exogenous factors such as climate change and future development options. This will involve hydrological modelling of a number of scenarios that project forward trends in basin water resources based on: (i) baseline assessment of trends, (ii) findings from stakeholder consultations on issues and aspirations, (iii) existing development priorities of the Government of Myanmar.

In addition the study will also take stock and review all current national, sectoral and regional/state development plans to understand complementarities but also trade-offs and conflicts between sectoral development trajectories. This review of existing development pathways will be used to identify a set of sustainability objectives at the national, regional and sectoral level that will act as a planning level safeguard for development.

Page 11 of 20

>> Other activities

>>> Twinning relationship on Hydro-meteorology

The Government of Myanmar wishes to establish a formal twinning relationship between the DMH and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The twinning relationship is intended to foster “Peer2Peer” sharing of experiences and learning by providing opportunity for BOM managers, scientists and engineers to support contribute and mentor the Government of Myanmar officials to design, implement and manage innovative new hydro-met and agro-met services. Specifically the purpose of the twinning relationship would be two-fold: (i) build capacity of the AIRBM PMU and DMH staff; (ii) provide advisory support to DMH in managing implementation of C2 activities.

This twinning relationship is under discussion, including specific activities around which to build the experience sharing approach, such as development of flow forecasting tools.

>>> Groundwater review for the Central Dry Zone

Between 1978-1988 the Australian Government’s Aid Agency supported Myanmar’s Irrigation Department to undertake a Groundwater Resource Assessment for the Central Dry Zone that remains the most comprehensive assessment to date. For extraneous reasons associated with the military clampdown of 1988, that work was never published. As an input into the SOBA Report, support is requested from AWP for the provision of the original groundwater specialist/team leader to update the 1988 report with recent monitoring data and publish a report on the status and trends of groundwater resources in the Central Dry Zone of Myanmar. Discussions are under way to develop this activity.

>> Timing for partner engagement

Calls for partner engagement of the five fast-tracked activities will be staggeredbased on priorities determined by the Government of Myanmar. Those activitieswhich support the SOBA process have been given top priority, in particular theHydrological data audit and capacity building in data management, as well as thesurface water resources assessment. The table below provides dates for the mainsteps in the procurement process: call for tender – tender submission –mobilisation8.

Table 2 – Schedule for partner submission process

Activity ID

Activity Title Type of

submission

Dates Invitation to

submit Partner

submission date

1 Hydrological data audit Open submission 09/09/2016 07/10/2016

2 Surface water resources baseline assessment

Open submission 16/09/2016 14/10/2016

3 Basin water pollution risk survey Open submission 31/10/2016 21/11/2016

4 Basin ecosystem services evaluation Open submission 3/11/2016 24/11/2016

5 Basin Development scoping study Open submission 7/11/2016 28/11/2016

8 Date of mobilisation is factored to be after contract is signed.

Page 12 of 20

>> Timing for implementation

Implementation periods for some of the seven activities are constrained by two critical milestones for the AIRBM Project9 which the AWP activities are supporting, these include:

Ayeyarwady SOBA process milestones of: - Submission date for the draft SOBA report: 31st March, 2016 - Submission date for the Final SOBA report: 30th June, 2016

These milestones define the implementation period for AWP Activities 1, 2, 3, and 4.

Ayeyarwady Basin Master Plan milestones: The Ayeyarwady Basin Masterplan will be developed in a phased manner. The first version of the Ayeyarwady Basin Master Plan is scheduled for completion by December 2017. The implementation period for AWP Activity 5 is constrained by this deadline as the ABDSS feeds directly into this initial draft basin Masterplan.

In addition AWP activities 1, 2, and 3 are constrained by the seasons of the basin, with any field work requiring completion during the dry season (November 2016 – May 2017). Conversely, the piloting of flood forecasting tools included under AWP Activity 5 required implementation during the wet season (June 2017 – October 2017).

An approximate breakdown of project implementation periods is presented in the table below. This represents the maximum period available for implementation. Partners participating in the tendering process are encouraged to design implementation to finish earlier wherever possible and where this does not compromise the quality of the products.

Table 3– Schedule for partner engagement and implementation of the AWP support to Myanmar

9 Further details on the AIRBM Project and SOBA process are provided in the supplementary materials.

Page 13 of 20

>> Integrating gender and civil society considerations

into the activities

Gender and civil society are cross-cutting initiatives of the AWP program agenda. Australian partners expressing interest for any AWP activity are encouraged to consider and embed measures relating to these cross-cutting themes into their design.

The capacity of a partner to do this and to include practical, meaningful and effective cross-cutting measures will be positively weighted in the submission review and selection process. Some examples of what might be reasonable include:

Activity 2 – Surface water resources & use baseline assessment: The baseline assessment will include characterisation and analysis of water demand and use. Disaggregating the baseline analysis by user (e.g. gender, livelihood group etc) would integrate a component of the gender theme into the assessment.

Activity 5 – Ayeyarwady Basin Development Scoping Study: The development of scenarios will involve stakeholder consultations. Through the use of stakeholder focus groups, the study could develop scenarios that capture aspirations, issues and perspectives of specific stakeholder groups such as (sector agencies, civil society, livelihood/income groups, gender etc), integrating both a civil society and gender component into the assessment.

>> Promoting collaboration between partners

As a partnership, AWP places high priority on fostering effective collaborations between its partners. For the support in Myanmar this is encouraged at two levels.

First, all activities implemented through AWP should be seen as a collaboration between the implementing Australian partners and one or more of AWPs Myanmar partners. All applications submitted for specific work packages should clearly demonstrate that these the principles of collaboration are embedded into the design of the proposed approach included in the submission document; however, Australian partners are not required to approach or make contact with AWPs Myanmar partners during the partner engagement period.

Second, AWP encourages collaboration and the formation of affiliations between Australian partners through the submission of joint-submissions.

Joint multi-partner submissions will be positively weighted during the assessment and selection process for each package – especially those which bundle together a diverse set of required expertise and skills. Australian partners interested in making a submission are encouraged to start this discussion with other partners immediately.

Page 14 of 20

>> Monitoring, evaluation and knowledge capture

Each Activity will have monitoring and reporting requirements and will be required to have a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation plan, that is properly resourced, and implemented. The M&E plan should clearly define a set of expected results, outputs and measures of success. Regular reporting to AWP will be facilitated through forms and reporting templates, most of which will be through an online partner portal.

In addition, crucial to the mission of AWP is the successful capture of knowledge, learning and success stories from Activities. Partners will also be expected to work with AWP to capture this knowledge and learning as requested.

Page 15 of 20

> Supplementary material

>> The Ayeyarwady River basin10

Myanmar is the largest country in Southeast Asia and historically has been a major

force in the Southeast Asia’s regional economy leading rice exports as well as

playing a critical role in exploitation and trade of natural resources. After decades

of sanctions and political isolation, the elections of 2011 set the country on a

trajectory of political reform towards liberal-democracy and a resumption of

diplomatic and economic ties with the world. Based on these reforms, the

country’s economy is at an inflection point, with some estimates predicting that

the economy will quadruple over the next 15 years.

This rapid growth in the national economy is based largely on growth in natural

resource sectors of agriculture, mining, and energy – for all of which Myanmar has

a wealth of resources. However, exploitation of these resources will impact on the

integrity and health of the nation’s river systems which are also the livelihood,

cultural and spiritual basis for Myanmar’s 54 million people and an asset of global

biodiversity significance.

Nowhere are these issues more pressing than in the Ayeyarwady River Basin (ARB)

which is widely perceived as the birthplace of Bamar culture and of central

importance to a large number of other ethnicities and cultures. The ARB is the

largest and most significant river basin in Myanmar from both an economic and

cultural point of view. The Ayeyarwady River is navigable for most of its length and

has supplied riparian communities of the delta and the central dry zone with fresh

water for centuries making the system as productive as it is diverse.

The Ayeyarwady River Basin (ARB) is the largest and most economically significant

river basin in Myanmar, comprising 66% of the national population, and 61% of total

land area. Total population in the ARB in 2015 is estimated at 39.5 million

(Worldpop). Of these, around 1.9 million are in Yunnan and 2.8 million in India

(mainly in Manipur). The great majority – around 35 million are in Myanmar,

representing 66% of Myanmar’s total population. The ARB covers an area of 413,710

km2, of which 91% lies within Myanmar, around 5% (21,400 km2) in China (mostly

Yunnan), and 17,400 km2 (4%) in India (Manipur and Nagaland).

10 This section is extracted from Ketelsen et al., 2016. Ayeyarwady State of Knowledge (SOK) Report. prepared by the

Myanmar Healthy Rivers Initiative (MHRI), Yangon, 2016

Page 16 of 20

Page 17 of 20

>> The Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management

(AIRBM) Project

The water sector is key for Myanmar’s development strategy. Myanmar is endowed with abundant natural resources, including land and water, which are poised for rapid development in the coming years and decades. The sustainable development of the country’s water resources can contribute to economic growth, poverty alleviation, and national and regional prosperity. It is crucial however that water resources are developed wisely so that major environmental degradation seen in other countries can be avoided and that the natural resource base which underscores the majority of livelihoods is not eroded. This requires the implementation of IWRM, including coordinated water resources planning at the national, basin and local levels, and the integration of all costs and benefits in the planning approach.

The AIRBM Project. Myanmar government has received a US$100 million credit from the Word Bank for the Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (AIRBMP). The objective of the project is to help Myanmar develop the institutions and tools needed to enable informed decision making in the management of Myanmar’s national water resources and to implement integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady. The project contributes to the development of integrated river basin management of the Ayeyarwady Basin through supporting basin development planning and institutional development, the development of monitoring and information systems, and the enhancement of navigation on the Ayeyarwady River. The main elements in the Ayeyarwady basin development planning process include:

The State of the Basin Assessment (SOBA) process to develop and discuss with stakeholders a comprehensive baseline evidence base to inform sustainable development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin.

Basin Development Scoping Study (BDSS) will act as a bridge between baseline understanding of the system and the future basin master plan, by exploring: the sensitivity of the Ayeyarwady system to change: the inter-dependencies, synergies and trade-offs between development in the Ayeyarwady basin; and the potential impacts of climate change. This sensitivity assessment of the basin and how it responds to change will be used to explore potential development options and pathways for the basin, and the related risks and uncertainties.

The Ayeyarwady Multi-stakeholder Platform: Consultations will play a critical role in the success of the Ayeyarwady basin planning activities of the AIRBMP. The AIRBMP PMU will design a Multistakeholder Platform (MSP) which includes mechanisms and modalities such as forum’s, working groups, liaison groups, peer-review panels, to ensure engagement of key stakeholders from public and private sector involved in management or use of the Ayeyarwady Basin, including Union and State government agencies/departments, NGOs, CSOs, and local communities.

The Decision Support System (DSS) will serve as an integrated suite of tools and assessment methodologies designed to understand the hydrological, environmental, social and economic implications of development pathways and options for the Ayeyarwady.

Page 18 of 20

Assessment of basin-wide development scenarios. The existing water development pathways for Ayeyarwady Basin (from the basin scoping study) will be formulated in a few alternative basin-wide development scenarios and then assessed against a broad range of hydrological, environmental, social and economic indicators, taking into account climate change. The resulting basin-wide distribution of the benefits, costs, impacts and risks of the various scenarios will enable basin-wide discussions with stakeholders to compare and identify acceptable scenarios or parts of scenarios that create high benefits, acceptable adverse impacts, and provide water-related security in an equitable manner.

The Basin Master Plan will bring basin perspectives into Union and State/Region planning, decision-making and governance processes – steering the socio-economic and sector planning of relevant government agencies. By assessing the water related trends, needs, opportunities and risks, the MBP will develop a basin development strategy that balances a range of desired development outcomes that can be sustained for a long term (based on the stakeholder discussions of the scenario assessment results). The plan concludes with a phased investment program and supporting priority activities for basin development and management, which need to be addressed in successive socio-economic and sector plans.

>> The Ayeyarwady the State of the Basin Assessment

(SOBA) Process

The State of the Basin Assessment (SOBA) process will result in a major technical product of the AIRBM Project representing the most comprehensive integrated environmental, social and economic baseline for the Ayeyarwady to date. The SOBA report will serve as a scientific baseline of the socio-cultural, hydro-ecological and economic systems of the Ayeyarwady River Basin (ARB). It will take stock of the status and historic trends in key characteristics of the Ayeyarwady system and how the people of Myanmar utilize and benefit from the river basins natural resources. The SOBA Report will combine indicator-based trend analysis with qualitative analysis of the implications and connections between these trends.

To ensure a solid foundation for the basin master planning process, the Government of Myanmar (GOM) wants to ensure the scope of the SOBA is a combination of both rigorous technical assessments and an inclusive consultation process, thereby establishing the scientific and deliberative basis for the Ayeyarwady BMP in accordance with international best-practice principles of IWRM. The SOBA Report will highlight issues, opportunities, risks trade-offs, and uncertainties, which will need to be addressed in the basin master planning process. In this way, the SOBA report will also provide the baseline against which future development pathways can be assessed and impacts monitored.

The major output of the SOBA process will be a SOBA Report, summarizing the findings of the baseline assessment into a scientifically robust and credible integrated baseline of the Ayeyarwady system. The Report will be a highly visual document that will serve as a reference for a wide range of stakeholders, informing discussions on development of the basin from the national to the local level.

The main elements of the SOBA report include:

Page 19 of 20

Description of characteristics and processes: Qualitative description of the key biophysical and socio-economic processes of the Ayeyarwady Basin (e.g. origin and formation of the basin, landscape and land use change, hydroclimate processes like the monsoon and cyclone system, sediment, carbon and nutrient cycling, delta formation, human settlement and migration in the basin). In the Ayeyarwady context, where data availability is poor and stakeholder base diverse, an understanding of these processes will help inform understanding of how the Ayeyarwady system will respond to change.

Documentation of stakeholder aspirations and issues: through a program of consultations at the local, region/state and Union level, the SOBA process will document the critical development issues facing planners and local communities as well as the aspirations and development objectives of these groups. This information will be used to focus the scope of the baseline assessment on the issues of highest relevance to development planning.

Characterisation of trends: the SOBA report will adopt an indicator-based approach to characterise trends in those biophysical and socioeconomic indicators of importance to development planning. Where possible these indicators should be quantifiable to enhance how trends over the evolved over the past 30+ years.

Rapid expert-judgement based impact assessment for ‘exploratory scenarios’: In addition to the characterisation of historic processes and trends in biophysical and socioeconomic parameters, the SOBA report will also extend understanding of the Ayeyarwady system by exploring its sensitivity to changes. This will involve hydrological modelling of a small number of exploratory scenarios that project forward trends in basin water resources based on: (i) baseline assessment of trends, (ii) findings from stakeholder consultations on issues and aspirations, (iii) existing development priorities of the Government of Myanmar. A multi-disciplinary team of engineers, scientists, economists, civil society representatives and planners will then undertake a rapid expert-judgement based assessment of the implications of these trends across ecological, economic, livelihood, cultural and security concerns.

Comprehensive peer-review process: The SOBA report will be subject to an extensive peer-review process that will ensure the quality and confidence in the report as the evidence-base for informed, integrated river basin planning. The Peer-review process will engage a wide range of experts including: (i) Senior technical officials within government agencies, (ii) the Expert Advisory Group (AG) of the National Water Resources Committee (NWRC), (iii) Senior academics from Myanmar and regional universities, (iv) World Bank specialists, (v) Senior Australian experts through the newly established Ayeyarwady Basin – Murray Darling Basin twinning relationship.

In order to develop the SOBA Report, the AIRBMP PMU will subcontract six technical packages to cover a specific scope of the SOBA Report. These packages include:

SOBA Pack (1) surface water resources, SOBA Pack (2) groundwater and data management, SOBA Pack (3) sediments & geomorphology, SOBA Pack (4) biodiversity & fisheries, SOBA Pack (5) socio-economics, including demographics, sectoral

development, macro-economics, and

Page 20 of 20

SOBA Pack (6) Participatory 3D Mapping (P3DM) and local consultations.

SOBA packages 2-5 will be procured through open-tender using loan financing from the AIRBM Project. Based on a procurement process triggered in June, 2016, EOIs were submitted from firms and organizations across the world, which were evaluated and a preferred candidate to implement each of the SOBA packages was identified. Contracting of these packages are underway with all five expected to be mobilised by October, 2016.

SOBA Package 1 will be implemented with support from the Australian Government through the Australian Water Partnership. In addition, the AWP will also supplement the other packages with three additional activities11:

Groundwater Review of the Central Dry Zone Basin water pollution risk survey Basin ecosystem services evaluation

Figure 1 – Linkages between the SOBA packages and AWP support activities: AWP support activities are shown in light green

11 See more detailed description in the main body of this note.