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Myanmar in Reform 2013
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Contents
Ian Holliday Preface
Li Chenyang The Adjustment of Obama Administration’s Policies towards Myanmar:
Promoting Democracy in Myanmar or Containing China?
Ashley South Governance and Legitimacy in the Peace Process
Kim Jolliffe The Role of People’s Security in Peace Building
David Allan Business and Peace in Myanmar: Thoughts on Sector Risks, Related to
Peace and Social License to Operate Issues
Ian Holliday Thinking about Myanmar’s Citizenship Crisis
Matthew J. Walton Burmese Politics and the Pathology of Unity
Khin Khin Lwin The Displaced in Reform
John Bray Risk Assessment, International Investment and Responsible Business
Practice in Myanmar: What Has Changed?
Zhu Li Politicization of China’s Economic Investment in Myanmar: Cause and
Impact
Zhu Xianghui Myanmar’s Oil and Gas Sector since 2011: Progress and Challenges
Adam Simpson From ‘Outside’ to ‘Inside’: The Transformation of Activism over Energy
Projects in Myanmar
Wang Zichang Amending Constitution: Focal Point of Myanmar’s Political Development
in 2013
Bi Shihong Cooperation and Competition between U.S. and Japan’s Policy towards
Myanmar
Yang Baoyun The European Union and Future Development of Myanmar
Pavin Chachavalpongpun Human Security in Myanmar: Critical Hurdles
Lei Zhuning Development of Transport Connectivity in Myanmar and the Prospect for
Regional Cooperation
Liu Xuecheng Myanmar’s Political Transformation and New Development of
China‐Myanmar Relations
Aung Aung China‐Myanmar Relations (2011‐2013): Promoting China’s Image in
Myanmar
Lu Guangsheng China’s Investment in Myanmar under Its Political and Economic Reform
Nora Schlenzig State Transformation and the Geography of State Power: Exploring
Cross‐border Development between China and Myanmar
Diane Tang Lee China’s Investments and Development Assistance in Myanmar
Khin Maung Nyo Challenges Facing Myanmar’s Migrant Workers
Kerstin Duell Exile or Return? The Diaspora’s Role in Myanmar’s Political Transition
Mung Don Transitional Justice in Myanmar: Assessing the Alternatives
Jacqueline Menager Cultural Elite: Situating Hip Hop in the Transition
Renaud Egreteau Soldiers as Lawmakers: In Search for a Legislative Role for the Tatmadaw
Wooyeal Paik Authoritarian Survival Strategies in Comparative Perspective: Myanmar,
China and North Korea
Joakim Kreutz Myanmar’s Economic Potential: Peace Making or Peace Breaking?
Andrew Selth Obstacles to Police Reform in Myanmar/Burma
Song Qingrun The Prospects of Myanmar’s Economic Reform and Development
Preface
Ian Holliday
On 17‐19 June 2013, the University of Hong Kong hosted its seventh annual symposium on politics
and government in Myanmar. Previous symposia were held in Bangkok (2007), Xiamen (2008),
Kunming (2009), and Hong Kong (2010‐12). For all seven events, the Singapore office of the
Konrad‐Adenauer‐Stiftung was a collaborating partner providing welcome financial support alongside
funding also provided by the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong. For all five
events from Kunming forwards, Yunnan University was a collaborating partner bringing a full
delegation of scholars from Mainland China to the symposium.
At the 2013 symposium, forty scholars and practitioners made fifteen‐minute presentations to
audiences of up to one hundred people. Soon after the conclusion of the symposium, thirty
presenters submitted brief summaries of their talks in English. All thirty were then translated into the
Myanmar language. This collection brings together the thirty summaries in both languages, with the
English versions grouped together first and the Myanmar versions following.
Grateful thanks for excellent administrative support are due to Florence Luk, Harold Tsang and Nikki
Wong in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong. For translation from English
into the Myanmar language, thanks go to Phyo Win Latt.
1
The Adjustment of Obama Administration’s Policies towards Myanmar:
Promoting Democracy in Myanmar or Containing China?
Li Chenyang
Center for Myanmar Studies, Yunnan University
The Aim of Rebalance Strategy in Asia‐Pacific Region of Obama Administration: Containing China
or Not?
Maintaining hegemony and dominance in Asia‐Pacific region is the key aim of Obama Administration’s rebalance strategy. USA will contain any major powers which can challenge its hegemony in this region, not only China.
After three‐decade rapid development, China is rising. Maybe the U.S. government hasn’t issued the containing China strategy yet, but has taken many actions, particularly since 2009. Professor ZHENG Yongnian, the Director of EAI, NUS, pointed out that, Obama administration’s policy towards China is the engagement under the containment. Professor HUANG Jin at NUS, a former research fellow at Brookings Institution, also thinks USA’s containing action upon China is very clear, as the U.S. made use of Taiwan issue before 2008, and now its interferences China’s Tibet and Xinjiang affairs. Meanwhile, USA also instigates China’s neighboring countries against China. We can’t ignore USA’s destructive role in the tension in South China Sea and East China Sea.
Due to the China‐US structural contradiction and the growing of Chinese strength, the Obama Administration’s policies towards China is no longer to pull China into the US‐dominated international system and achieve China’s peaceful evolution but to fully contain China’s rise, mainly by non‐military measures. USA makes full use of its domination of international regulations and political values to damage China’s international image and limit China’s international spaces through the interpretation of those regulations as well as the reports of Western media. By making use of its democracy advantages, Myanmar’s nationalist sentiments and concepts of CSR, EIA and SIA, the U.S has successfully made China’s aids and investments in Myanmar serious obstacles for China‐Myanmar relations. Many evidences indicate that some NGOs from USA were involved in the movement against Myitsone dam, and the strong interests of USA in the coordination and negotiation of the conflict in Kachin State is also a good example of USA’s containing action upon China.
China also needs to realize the diplomatic faux pas in its relations with Myanmar during the past two decades. China did not paid enough attention to Myanmar ordinary people and only developed the relations with Myanmar military government; the economic cooperation mostly focused on natural resources exploring with less social responsibilities and not enough help to the improving of local livelihood. These shortcomings were optimized by USA. Therefore, China needs to adjust its policies and improve the behaviors of Chinese companies and citizens in Myanmar.
2
Is Promoting Democracy in Myanmar the Fundamental Goal of the Adjustment of Obama Administration’s Policies towards Myanmar?
Although most American people respect democracy and human rights, promoting democratic value and political system is one of the three main foreign strategic objectives of the U.S. After the ending of apartheid in South Africa, USA’s democracy exporting is not merely for interfering in other countries’ internal affairs, with democracy exporting as an important object as well. That’s to meet the need of domestic politics and foreign relations of USA. But U.S. government will undoubtedly give up democracy and human rights protection for national interest if promoting democracy collides with the seeking of national interest.
Thailand and Pakistan also have long‐time military rule, and even a military coup occurred in Thailand in 2006, but the U.S. didn’t impose sanctions upon Pakistan and its military cooperation with Thailand has never stopped. So some scholars are wondering why the U.S can’t lift its sanctions upon Myanmar. The U.S. never condemns Mubarak, the former Egyptian President who was in power for more than 30 years and tried to make his son as his successor. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Brunei are absolute monarchy nations, but the U.S. government never forces those leaders to carry out democratizations only because they are vital for USA’s national interest.
Democracy is the best political system for human, but it’s not omnipotent and can’t resolve all complicated problems in a short time in any countries. The Philippines is an allied country of the U.S. in SEA, but it does not have good governance after independence, and now is reaching the verge of failed state. As a responsible big country, the U.S. not only has to boost democratization, but also needs to help Philippines and Myanmar to improve administrative capacity and develop economics. The scholars don’t think the U.S. has done good jobs in this section. Although the efficiency of USA’s policy adjustment must be assessed by Myanmar people, an academic assessment can be given.
After the Obama Administration took office in 2009, it adjusted its main objective in Myanmar to hinder China‐Myanmar cooperation in order to contain China’s rise. Its declaration that the development of US‐Myanmar relations is not aiming at China is unbelievable for Chinese people.
The logical relation of the policies of Obama Administration towards Myanmar: As China did not kept good relations with Myanmar people since 1988, and the democratic regime must respect the people’s willing, so many cooperation projects between China and Myanmar cannot be implemented smoothly after the democratization happened in Myanmar. Myitsone dam, Latpadaung copper mine and China‐Myanmar oil and gas pipeline are the targets of USA’s action.
The Response of Myanmar to USA’s Policy Adjustment
Myanmar society has different response to USA’s policy adjustment.
Some Myanmar people hope USA can pay more attention to Myanmar. For example, Zaw Htay, a Myanmar government official, published an article titled “Myanmar and Washington’s New Strategic Choice in Southeast Asia” in the Washington Post on November 15, 2011. The paper said that “What the West must realize is that in today’s geopolitical situation, particularly given the rise of China, it needs Myanmar. Washington and others must help facilitate Myanmar’s connection to the outside world at this critical juncture. My president’s suspension of the Beijing‐backed Myitsone Dam signaled to the world what he stands for. If the United States neglects this opportunity, Washington will part ways with the new order in the Indochina region”.
But some Myanmar people complain USA. For example, some Myanmar elites said, Myanmar has
3
done so much and USA responses less. Myanmar has done better job than Afghanistan, but USA can provide about several billions US dollars assistance to Afghanistan every year with no money but sanction to Myanmar, so they are unsatisfied with the USA’s action and response. Another official based in Naypyidaw pointed out, for Myanmar foreign relations, India and China are the most important partner. He hopes USA will not cause Myanmar any trouble.
According to the CSIS Myanmar Trip Report in September 2012, some Myanmar elites tried to balance between China and USA. The report said: “The widespread belief that the Myanmar government’s concern about excessive dependence on China was a primary motivator in prompting military leaders to pursue reform appears to be overstated. In fact, the group’s interlocutors stressed China’s role as a traditional neighbor and encouraged the United States to avoid zero‐sum policies toward China. Given China’s long near‐monopoly on political ties, military sales, and trade with Myanmar during the decades of military rule, the country’s rapidly warming ties with the United States are being greeted with suspicion in China and are stoking fears about imagined U.S. containment efforts. A proactive policy of consultation with China on the U.S. approach toward Myanmar could help mitigate concerns in Beijing about the United States using Myanmar to contain China”.
The Attitude of China on the Development of Myanmar‐USA Relations: Perspective from a Chinese Scholar
All nations must respect Myanmar’s right to develop relations with other countries. Chinese scholars fully realize the recognition from USA Myanmar’s political transition and its economic assistance will be of great significance for the modernization process of Myanmar. The U.S. also has the right to keep good relations with Myanmar, and China always supports that. In June 2007, China hosted a secret meeting between Myanmar ministers and U.S. officials in Beijing. After the 2008 Nargis Cyclone, China coordinated Myanmar military government and USA to ensure U.S military aeroplane to transport disaster relief materials to Yangon airport.
But China’s national interest must be respected by USA and Myanmar. The stability and development of China‐Myanmar border areas and Chinese investment in Myanmar all are China’s national interests, which are not allowed to be damaged. Unfortunately, they are affected by USA’s activities in Myanmar.
Conclusion
China and USA have the competitions in Myanmar, but both have to respect the sovereignty and the legal rights of Myanmar. No one can force Myanmar people to do anything against their willing. It’s the right time for the U.S. to remove all the sanctions upon Myanmar now.
China needs a stable and harmonious environment for the modernization process. As USA is not a reliable partner, China needs to pay more attentions to the neighboring nations in Asia, and must develop the relations with neighboring countries independently. Anyhow, we hope USA will not play zero‐sum game with China in Myanmar or other regions.
4
Governance and Legitimacy in the Peace Process
Ashley South
Senior Adviser ‐ Myanmar Peace Support Initiative
Ph.D. Candidate ‐ Australian National University
Opportunities and Risks
• The peace process which emerged in Myanmar in late 2011 is the best opportunity in many
decades to address political, social, economic and cultural issues which have driven armed
conflict since independence.
• The recent halt to fighting between the government and Kachin Independence Organisation
means that for the first time all major non‐state armed groups have agreed preliminary
ceasefires with the government.
• However, a number of serious issues remain unresolved. The peace process is unlikely to
succeed unless these are addressed. This will be difficult, given the long history of mistrust
among key stakeholders.
Ceasefires
• People living in conflict‐affected areas benefit from ceasefires between the government and
non‐state armed groups (NSAGs): reduced fear, improved livelihood options, better
opportunities for travel.
• The primary concern of conflict‐affected communities is physical security.
• Many ethnic nationality communities continue to experience high levels of militarization. If
the Myanmar Army and NSAGs could withdraw from some non‐strategic positions,
perceived as threatening by communities, this would provide a boost in confidence to ethnic
stakeholders.
• Preliminary ceasefires need to be consolidated, with concrete agreements regarding troop
positions and behavior of armed elements (ceasefire ‘Code of Conduct’).
• Need for ceasefire monitoring.
• Serious concerns regarding ongoing major clashes (e.g. Shan State). Questions regarding
whether Myanmar Army is following government’s peace agenda ‐ or is this a case of ‘good
cop, bad cop’?
5
Peace Process
• There is a need to move from the agreement of preliminary ceasefires, to discuss
long‐standing political issues which have structured armed and state‐society conflicts in
Myanmar. Government has agreed in principle to political negotiations, but these have yet to
start. The clock is ticking ‐ 2015 elections.
• Ethnic stakeholders (NSAGs, political parties, civil society) need to ensure policy and tactical
coherence, in order to represent their communities effectively in political talks.
• Need to ensure participation of key stakeholders, including conflict‐affected communities,
civil society groups and political parties. This will be a logistical challenge, reflected in the
complexity of the ‘Framework Agreement’ (ethnic peace plan) presented to the government.
Outstanding Issues ‐ incursion of unregulated business activities into conflict‐affected areas;
land‐grabbing; mega‐projects
• Most new business activities in conflict‐affected areas are extractive (logging, mining etc),
and often connected to local or national powerholders (e.g. Myanmar Army, NSAGs).
Business activities in newly accessible conflict‐affected areas are often associated with
land‐grabbing (e.g. for plantation agriculture).
• As well as the negative social and environmental impacts, such activities can undermine trust
and confidence in the peace process.
• Negative impacts of the2012 Farmland Act, and 2012 Vacant, Fallow and Wasteland Act.
• Concerns about major infrastructure projects (e.g. hydroelectric dams).
Outstanding Issues – local autonomy and politics of governance
• Government has committed in principle to negotiations regarding decentralisation in ethnic
nationality‐populated areas. However, in the absence of substantial political talks, no
progress has yet been made.
• Ceasefire process has seen the government pushing to expand its authority into previously
contested, conflict‐affected areas. This is not necessarily (or entirely) a conspiracy: it is what
governments do ‐ apply governance to subjects.
• Expansion of government services into previously inaccessible, conflict‐affected communities
can be positive for vulnerable populations (e.g. improved access to health and education
services, provision of ID cards) – but can also be seen as threatening by local communities,
who continue to regard the state as threatening, and the Myanmar Army as violent and
predatory.
6
• Efforts to expand Myanmar government authority and service‐delivery systems should
therefore be undertaken in close consultations with the non‐state armed groups and affected
communities, and relevant civil society groups.
• In many conflict‐affected areas, local organisations (working cross‐border, and from ‘inside’
Myanmar) have for years been the only agencies providing assistance to conflict‐affected
communities. Many NSAGs, and CBOs working in partnership with them, have developed
long‐established, if chronically under‐resourced, structures in the fields of education, health
and local administration.
• For many displaced and other communities in the conflict zones, NSAG and related civil
society structures and personnel are perceived as more legitimate and effective than those
of the state. It is essential that such individuals and networks enjoy a sense of ownership in
the peace process.
• There is a risk that international and state agencies entering these areas can undermine
and/or overwhelm existing local capacities, damaging confidence in the peace process.
• International actors should not undermine trust and confidence in the peace process, by
supporting an expansion of government authority into previously contested areas, without
consultation (‘do no harm’).
Political Cultures
• Despite commitment to the peace process, government and Myanmar Army leaders still
seem to regard ethnic communities as ‘children’, whose lives must be developed/improved
by the government (with international assistance) – rather than seeing ethnic communities
(and NSAGs?) as primary actors in their own stories.
• As noted, in practice, this is often experienced by conflict‐affected communities as the
penetration of top‐down state services and governance structures into previously
inaccessible, conflict‐affected areas ‐ which can undermine trust in the peace process.
• There is considerable risk that peace and political actors will avoid difficult challenges,
preferring self‐congratulation to addressing the many difficult problems still affecting ethnic
communities and state‐society relations ‐ in which case opportunities to build a better
Myanmar may be lost.
Convergence, and ‘Federalism from Below’
• There is a risk that elite‐level political talks will be drawn‐out, top‐down and blueprint‐driven.
Negotiations could get trapped in legalistic discussions (e.g. around constitutional reform),
with key actors adopting ‘zero‐sum’ approaches ‐ especially in the run‐up to 2015 elections.
• Ethnic political actors should identify issues for priority, ‘fast‐track’ negotiations with the
government. Government needs to make some symbolic and practical concessions/gestures,
7
in order to demonstrate good faith and awareness of ethnic grievances (e.g. in relation to
language use, land rights).
• Support local activities which help to address urgent concerns and needs of ethnic
communities. Concrete and sustainable attempts to build peace ‘on the ground’ are
particularly important, given the likelihood that political negotiations will not produce a
deliverable settlement until late 2014 (if we are lucky ‐ and there remains the outstanding
question of whether any such agreement will be acceptable to Myanmar Army or other key
stakeholders).
• Government and donors should undertake peacebuilding needs assessments in partnership
with NSAGs, civil society and conflict‐affected communities ‐ in order to build common
understandings of needs, and a joint agenda for addressing these.
• Promote activities which help to build trust and confidence on the part of key stakeholders,
testing the peace process. Seek out and support good practice (‘appreciative enquiry’
approach) ‐ e.g. in fields of education, livelihoods.
• Support ‘convergence’ between state and non‐state governance regimes and service delivery
systems, in ways which empower and build on local practice. Importance of demonstrating
to communities (and NSAGs, civil society) that the peace process can create spaces to
support local agency.
Key Questions
• Will the current round of ceasefires see NSAGs continue to control autonomous ‘liberated
zones’ (like the ceasefires of the 1990s) ‐ in which case, what will be the status of these areas,
and how/will such issues be addressed as part of political negotiations?
• The peace process has seen NSAGs enter a (no doubt, long and contested) transformation
from insurgent groups, towards – what? State and international actors mostly assume that, if
a political settlement can be negotiated that is acceptable to key stakeholders, NSAGs will
disarm. Some NSAGs may eventually lay down arms, and become political parties; others
may prefer to retain their weapons ‐ perhaps as part of a transformed Myanmar Army.
• NSAGs have been illegal (according to the Myanmar government, which itself has been
regarded as illegitimate; also, lack of recognition for NSAGs under international states
system). The President has promised to rescind laws criminalizing contact with NSAGs. What
is the status of NSAGs, for the Myanmar government and Army, and international actors
(diplomats, donors, aid agencies)? How should non‐state governance and service delivery
regimes relate to (be integrated with?) state structures?
• Does government understand ethnic grievances and aspirations? Are Myanmar government ‐
and Army ‐ willing to address ethnic concerns substantively in political negotiations?
8
• Will government and international partners be willing to ensure that activities to build peace
and bring development to conflict‐affected areas are undertaken jointly, in partnership with
key stakeholders?
• The status of NSAGs as political representatives of ethnic groups is problematic ‐ BUT they do
have (varying amounts of, often contested) legitimacy among minority communities. The
peace process has brought NSAGs into partnerships with government and international
actors, and provided opportunities for NSAGs to organize among previously inaccessible
communities (e.g. in government‐controlled areas). Where does this leave other ethnic
political actors (e.g. political parties which contested the 2010 elections)?
The Peace Process, and the ‘Anti‐politics Machine’
• “The Anti‐politics Machine: Development, Depoliticization and Bureaucratic Power in
Lesotho”, by James Ferguson (1990): ‘development’ de‐politicises contentious issues, by
framing these as amenable to technical solutions ‐ to be implemented by government, in
partnership with aid professionals ‐ rather than sites of political struggle.
• Is the same thing happening to ethnic grievances and political agendas, as part of the peace
process?
• If ethnic concerns are addressed through political negotiations, it might be appropriate to
transfer some issues from the political agenda, onto the development agenda (e.g. language
and land rights).
• Otherwise, international assistance to the peace process may serve to re‐frame ethnic
communities and leaders’ concerns and struggles, as technical problems to be ‘fixed’ by the
delivery of aid and economic development.
9
The Role of People’s Security in Peace Building
Kim Jolliffe
King’s College London
The Role of People in Peace Building
Peace building is essentially the process of consolidating ceasefires signed between armed political
actors by strengthening institutional capacities and rebuilding conflict‐affected societies to foster an
environment for lasting and inclusive peace.
It is a liberal intervention, usually from the West, and thus peace itself ‐ normatively understood as
the absence of fighting ‐ is not the only goal. Many totalitarian states for example have achieved that
through brutal suppression and decisive military victories. Liberal ‘peace building’ initiatives can
easily become broader state‐building projects, aimed at producing a certain type of peace, one that
goes hand‐in‐hand with the fostering of democracy, law and order, development, human rights and
free market capitalism all with an emphasis on state centralisation and global integration.
There is a prevalent understanding that civil conflict arises where there are divides along ethnic or
other lines and real or perceived disparities between those closest to the state and others. Therefore,
peace building theory posits that the state must reach out to conflict‐affected populations, providing
them with a tangible benefit from the peace, known as a ‘peace dividend’, to get them behind the
process and to alleviate grievances and tensions.
Focusing mostly on the peace process between the Myanmar Government and Karen National Union
(KNU), this paper will argue that such a focus on the needs of populations is particularly important in
Myanmar, where for decades the state and competing ethnic armed actors have essentially been
fighting over people. However, while the nature of conflict in Myanmar appears to have been
misunderstood, a number of ‘peace building’ projects linked to the state’s broader pseudo‐liberal
economic state‐building project appear to be in fact threatening the endeavour for lasting peace.
People’s War. People’s Peace?
People are the primary object that armed actors in Myanmar’s decades‐long conflicts have been
fighting over. Therefore, at the heart of a programme for peace, must be a peaceful consensus on
how, and by whom, people should be governed.
The Tatmadaw’s People’s War Doctrine developed in the 1960s in essence renders people a
mobolisable resource that needs to be managed in order for leaders to achieve their political aims.
The doctrine was developed to make the entire citizenry exploitable for military goals, especially in
the event of a foreign invasion. Though this has never happened, the doctrine has arguably shaped
successive regimes’ approaches to governance significantly and has certainly impacted
10
counterinsurgency strategy.
People are central, too, to the motivations and pursuits of the country’s myriad ethnic armed groups
(EAGs), the majority of which claim to be fighting for the self‐determination and other interests of
their people. As a result, in many cases far better services have been provided to people by EAGs
than the Government. In these areas traditional hierarchies based largely on respect for elders,
patrons, protectors and providers have translated into dedicated support by ethnic populations for
their respective EAGs.
In turn, since the 1960s the Tatmadaw has responded with population‐centric military strategies
most popularly characterised by their ‘four‐cuts strategy’, which aimed to cut off all relations
between ethnic populations and EAGs to starve the latter of sanctuary, funds, intelligence, recruits
and other provisions, and turn the populations on them. Beginning as a multi‐faceted popular
support campaign, the strategy has manifest most vividly over the decades in mass displacement
operations, centering on the total decimation of entire communities and forcible relocation of
millions of people, out of EAG territories and into Government controlled pacified areas. To varying
degrees, such operations have come hand‐in‐hand with a wide range of intimidation methods
including burning of villages; destruction of food stores; laying of landmines in residential areas,
fields and pathways; extrajudicial killing; arbitrary arrest and torture; as well as sexual and other
forms of physical abuse.
Empowering People for Peace
Three reasons a focus on people is crucial to lasting peace in Myanmar:
1. Akin to the broader struggle for democratisation in Myanmar, an evolution away from dependence
on armed actors will take years and depends primarily on the emergence of a capable and
empowered citizenry, with an established educated middle class, to open up new spheres of
influence from below. Capacity building at a grassroots level is key, with the civilian population as the
primary focus.
2. At present, large swathes of ethnic populations are trapped in a vicious cycle of marginalisation,
whereby state oppression and abuse has kept them withdrawn ‐ or in extreme cases, on the run ‐
from the state, strengthening their dependence on and allegiance to EAGs. As a result, such
populations are then persecuted further by the state, subject to population‐centric military strategies
described above and the abuse by soldiers acting with near impunity. I refer not just to those who
have at times lost their homes and gone on the run, but to millions of people who have never had a
real home, such as over‐60s I have interviewed that have been on the run since they were toddlers.
3. Finally, judging by research I conducted in 2012 on the involvement of under‐18s in Karen EAGs
and Tatmadaw Border Guard Forces, for many young males passively enduring such hardship and
subjugation is not an option. While Government initiatives over the years pacified or even coopted
EAG leaderships, desire for direct military action at a local level ‐ not to mention widespread
dependence on anti‐personnel explosives to protect schools, clinics and other local service structures
‐ have remained central to survival. No matter what gains are made today between political elites at
the negotiation table, these highly militarised areas, fraught with insecure and hopeless populations
11
will not see peace until people are able to envision a future where peace means promotion of their
everyday existence and ability to determine their own futures.
Aspirations for Development
Assumptions are often made about what a ‘peace dividend’ would look like in a given war‐torn
community. Typically, international actors work alongside or back the state to target key
development indicators, thus building the society’s confidence in the peace building process. In
Myanmar’s case, as well as the provision of basic supplies to IDPs, government‐linked and NGO
initiatives have begun probing a number of issues, including demining and economic development,
both of which remain extremely contentious issues with EAGs and associated civil society networks.
Other projects receiving overseas development backing, many loosely in the name of peace, have
focused on broader centralisation efforts such as building roads and government schools, particularly
in areas where EAGs have lost leverage as a result of the ceasefires. Meanwhile, the state itself, has
to date seemingly dedicated negligible government funding to such initiatives, while it continues to
spend over USD 2 billion per year on the military.
In the case of the Government’s ceasefire with the KNU, research I conducted in April ‐ June 2013
found that inchoate peace projects have done little to outbalance the perceived greater insecurity
stemming from the Tatmadaw’s relentless growth and ever‐aggressive posture, and in some cases
have in fact heightened such fears significantly. While the numbers of Tatmadaw outposts are
increasing and bamboo fortifications are replaced with concrete, the burgeoning Myanmar Air Force
is repositioning machine‐gun mounted combat helicopters and test dropping bombs from its jets, all
within clear sight of local communities.
Through initial consultations with locals and ground troops of the Karen National Liberation Army, I
have found that, for example, while the Norway‐backed Myanmar Peace Support Initiative’s pilot
projects have been well received, their limited scope thus far has allowed only minor confidence
building among locals. The positive influence had by such projects is also in competition with that of
vigorous advances into the region by extractive and industrial agricultural business ventures, and
overseas development projects focused on the building of roads and other infrastructure conducive
to state centralisation. Roads in such areas have direct strategic consequences at a time there are no
guarantees ceasefires will hold and while villagers are seeing the Tatmadaw gain unfettered access to
all villages for comprehensive reconnaissance operations. Further, even non‐military related
development projects introduced in coordination with state mechanisms with limited
acknowledgement of existing governance structures (particularly schools) have been treated with
great skepticism, as either part of a broader Bamanisation agenda or as subversive to local societal
structures. Indeed, such schemes are clearly a direct effort to undermine structures tied to
alternative power structures and boost the state’s influence, while attempting to win the hearts and
minds of EAG‐linked populations.
While stating such fears, consulted locals stressed that their societies’ own development aspirations
had been obstructed only by the persistent decimation of their villages, farms and transport routes,
by the military they see growing around them unhindered. As one man said, ‘if we had not had to
rebuild every house in every village so many times in our lives, we would have developed very far.’ As
12
is often heard, another explained, ‘we have no plans to build strong homes yet, because they will just
burn them down within 2 or 3 years… their development is just for their power.’ In essence, to feel
the benefits of peace, people don’t need token development projects, they need security assurances,
so they can start developing for themselves. The failure of numerous initiatives to build projects
around this indicates a greater emphasis on building a centralised economy than on fostering an
environment conducive to lasting peace. In the process, such endeavours risk severely undermining
efforts made to this end and strengthen state plans to eliminate popular forms of opposition through
force and coercion.
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Business and Peace in Myanmar:
Thoughts on Sector Risks, Related to Peace and Social License to Operate Issues
David Allan
Spectrum Yangon
Myanmar is embarking on “a triple transition from an authoritarian military system to democratic
governance; from a centrally‐directed economy to market‐oriented reforms; and from 60 years of
conflict to peace in the border areas”.1 While the courageous reforms being undertaken in “clean
government and good governance” areas deserve the international acclaim they are getting, many
difficult and intractable issues remain. Setbacks in any and all of the transition areas affect the others.
Without real focus on embedding reforms, changes will remain as a surface veneer and many of the
issues that have in part led to decades of civil war and conflict will continue. The context remains an
extremely fragile one. The expectations for real results and quality of life improvements to be
delivered to impoverished are clear, yet currently largely unseen.
A Plethora of Difficulties
President Thein Sein characterized some of the difficulties in his speech of 10 Jan 2013. “Regardless
of … reforms, the country has experienced a plethora of difficulties and challenges during the
transition period. Drawing on lessons learned from the experience in dealing with the problems
associated with the Letpadaung Taung project, land rights, riots in Rakhine State and the breakdown
of peace in Kachin state, the Government will continue to try to improve its management skills in the
future.” A breakdown shows that many of the factors behind the problems have business links:
Lepadaung Taung (mine) – compensation issues, use of force, land loss, community rights, pollution;
land rights – land grabbing, uplands, inappropriate laws, cadastre issues, competing uses; Rakhine
State riots – general absence of rights for groups, continued lack of development dividend; Kachin
State peace/war – lack of autonomy, no resource benefit sharing, centrally decided projects. Business
and investment are currently more linked to conflict than they are to peace. John Ruggie, who led
the process for development of the UN Guiding Principles for Business and Human Rights,
highlighted that in Myanmar, “heightened due diligence is going to be required.”2 The “Protect,
Respect, Remedy” framework, or the State Duty to Protect Human Rights, Corporate Responsibility
to Respect Human Rights and the need for greater Access to Remedy for victims of business‐related
abuse, will help.
Key Public Concerns about Projects
Various seminars and analyses come up with similar lists of concerns about impacts for projects in
1 World Bank, Myanmar Strategy 2012.
2 Responsible Business in Myanmar: Operating Context, Sanctions and International CSR Standards, Webinar, FOLEY HOAG LLP, 18 August 2012.
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Myanmar. Fifteen key public concerns brainstormed by a mix of government, industry and public
interest groups: poor consultation processes; no support for future livelihood; lack of proactive
engagement by corporate culture; lack of responsibility to communities (safety, environment);
operating standards are poor and need raising; cultural heritage impacts not considered; projects
impact way of life; no budget for reasonable compensation; human rights – no proper enforcement;
lack of community input (what are community needs?); loss of land – cultural and economic aspects;
lack of ability for tripartite consultation – government, business and communities; no continuous
monitoring; ethical and cultural change and rise of crime; health and safety impacts and
environmental pollution. This list is remarkably similar to the list of concerns published regarding the
Letpadaung Taung project.3 The similarity of problems in projects shows a degree of “foreseeability”.
This highlights the importance of risk assessment and industry sector risk profiles.
Rapid Risk Assessment on Business and Peace Issues
A rapid risk snapshot on business and peace related factors by industry class was prepared. Ten
sectors and a total of sixty four business activity types were assessed from the perspective of effect
on the development direction and peace processes and how risk is perceived in these sectors. Basic
energy, infrastructure, agriculture and food production, consumer goods, light industry, education
and services were considered to have lower risk and be more likely help development. Some
examples of the 64 sub‐sectors considered are village based renewable energy, vocational training,
healthcare, community based tourism, communications, community forestry activities.
Extractives sectors and heavy industry were considered higher risk and more likely to hinder
development. Little work has been done in Myanmar on the differences between sectors and
industries, with “business” often tending to be considered as homogenous from a risk perspective.
This work is introductory and ideally it should be backed up with a large scale perception study or
rigorous risk practice assessment. Such work should prompt interest in the sectors with lower risk.
Investors taking higher risks to achieve higher rewards are externalizing the impact at the cost of
communities. Forseeability of risks seems critical, and as a result of the elevated risks in some sectors,
additional complications in the peace process can be expected.
Examples of More Detailed Sector Studies: Mining
Recent global research by Franks and Davis looked at 50 cases of mining company/community
conflict.4 The research showed that the main costs of conflict to a company were found to be
management and staff time, fines, compensation, design modification costs and production loss
issues, with 50 percent of the issues dealing with problems in the areas of: pollution; distribution of
benefits; access or competition over resources; consultation and communication; community health
and safety; vulnerable and marginalized groups; culture and customs; consent issues; population and
demographic change issues. The International Council for Mining and Metals analyzed
company/community conflict issues resulting in reports of human rights abuse in the mining and
minerals sector with similar conclusions.
3 Finalized Report of Special Investigation Commission, Mirror Newspaper, 12 March 2013.
4 Davis, Rachel and Franks, Daniel M., The costs of conflict with local communities in the extractive industry, 2011.
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Seven Joint Recommendations for Positive Development in Extractive Industries
Seminars on CSR, Social Impact and Business and Human Rights, developed the following seven
principles for improving practice in the extractive sector in Myanmar to address foreseeable risk.5 (1)
A tripartite dialogue improvement between government, business and the public offers improved
communication, understanding and many opportunities to facilitate further national development.
The seminar focused on CSR and human rights issues shows a possible route forward in improved
understanding between groups on these issues. (2) Community participation and consent in the
processes of decision making would overcome many of the issues currently resulting from the
operation of extractives projects (Free Prior and Informed Consent or FPIC). (3) Attention to land,
livelihood, environmental, gender, cultural heritage, benefit sharing, safety, community harm and
community protection issues are considered particularly important. (4) The “Protect, Respect,
Remedy” Business and Human Rights Framework offers input towards improving government,
business and community relations. (5) Best Practice Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), and
specifically a focus on Respect for all human rights under the Ruggie Framework, will greatly reduce
the negative impacts. (6) Positive social license to operate will be gained by business respecting and
following the various standards and codes relevant to various industry sectors. (7) Ongoing
monitoring and improved legal and non‐judicial mechanisms for remedy through valid grievance
mechanisms and compensation offer many avenues in helping resolve issues. While prepared for the
extractive industries these principles are considered applicable to many industry sectors.
Summary and Conclusions
Projects and overall risk levels are assessed from the perspective of whether they are likely to help or
hinder peace and development. Different sectors have a different risk and benefit profile and while
some sectors have higher risk, there are many sectors of business providing services that
communities are likely to welcome without similar risks. These sectors are more likely to have a
positive effect on the overall development direction and peace processes. Land issues, transparency
over land use and community consent over land use issues are critical for managing social license to
operate. Benefit sharing and high quality resource management are key issues to ethnic groups.
Recommendations for improving of extractive and other sectors in line with Guiding Principles are
available. To help peace, more work on agreement between all parties of the priority of sectors for
development and sectors to avoid, delay or take special precautions for is recommended.
Community led development project approaches are more likely to have lower conflict. Many
business tools are available to help in quality projects.
Considering business and human rights will help show how investment may help or hinder peace.
Ideally investors and planners can then focus on lower risk options, improve risk mitigation and
involve the public more.
Closing Thoughts on Community Voice
During government, industry and public seminars some highlighted the concept of community right
5 Spectrum Seminar, “Sharing on Corporate Social Responsibility”, 7‐8 October 2012.
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of choice, or citizen led development with comments like: “Good standards are followed by
companies like ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐. Yet only ##### companies come in here. Shouldn’t we have the right to
invite the best practice companies like ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ to come in and work in Myanmar? We don’t want the
bottom quality companies coming here! We would like to invite the best companies to come.” If
citizens are in a position to choose, a more harmonious basis for business and peace would result.
17
Thinking about Myanmar’s Citizenship Crisis
Ian Holliday
The University of Hong Kong
Citizenship comprises a bundle of civic rights and duties that together generate a civic persona or
identity. In 1949, T. H. Marshall classically argued that civic rights have three main elements. The civil
component comprises “the rights necessary for individual freedom”. The political component
comprises “the right to participate in the exercise of political power”. The social component
comprises “the whole range from the right to a modicum of economic welfare to the right to share to
the full in the social heritage and to live the life of a civilised being according to the standards
prevailing in the society”. More recently, scholars have added a fourth element to capture the
considerable racial and ethnic diversity of many contemporary societies. The cultural component
comprises the right to assert and cultivate one’s cultural heritage. Today, then, while practice differs
considerably across distinct societies, it is nevertheless common to hold that citizenship rights are
multifaceted, spanning the civil, political, social and cultural domains. They are balanced by civic
duties captured in the obligation of allegiance to a state, and any additional duties flowing from that.
When these many elements are pulled together, the result is a civic persona or identity. One key
issue facing any state is the extent of uniformity or diversity to be fed into civic identity.
In Myanmar, there is currently a citizenship crisis with four main dimensions. In a general sense,
there is a broad curtailment of citizenship generated by provisions in the 2008 Constitution and
additional legislation. Civil rights are not wholly secure, political rights are circumscribed by direct
military appointments to elected assemblies at the national and provincial levels, social rights are
often close to non‐existent, and cultural rights are highly variable. Within this context, the crisis has
three more specific aspects. One is a targeted denial of citizenship focused on the Rohingya
population in Rakhine State and increasingly having implications for other Muslim groups in other
parts of the country. Another is a targeted restriction of citizenship affecting all official national
minorities notably through limitations on rights to cultural expression. Still another is somewhat
different in nature. This is a broad arrogation or appropriation of citizenship undertaken by the
dominant Bamar majority within the country, and shown by Matthew J. Walton to be similar in many
core respects to white privilege in the United States and other western societies.
When examining Myanmar’s citizenship crisis, it is possible to look inwards through an historical
approach highlighting unique features of national history, or to look outwards through a comparative
approach that searches for commonalities with other national experiences. Looking inwards in this
case tends to generate a focus on imperialism and authoritarianism. Ethnic markers were solidified
during the colonial period, and borders were opened to inward migration of South Asian people
often seen as uniquely alien. An extreme, dogmatic chauvinism was a feature of the authoritarian
interlude that opened in 1962 and only formally drew to a close in 2011. From this perspective,
citizenship issues appear to be uniquely difficult in Myanmar. By contrast, looking outwards in the
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Myanmar case draws attention to the common macro challenge faced by many modern states in
piloting a shift from racial or ethnic hierarchy to democratic citizenship. In this sense, although
Myanmar of course has many specific and contingent features, it is by no means unique or alone in
the issues it currently faces, and can certainly learn from comparative experience. At a time when
many Asian states are only just starting to grapple with issues of intercultural dialogue, and with
linked questions of recognition and accommodation for minority groups, such experience tends to be
most extensive in developed western states. It is English‐speaking settler states such as Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and the United States, and European states with highly diverse populations
such as Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and Scandinavian countries, that have traveled farthest
down this road. Together, they have helped to set international standards that are monitored by the
United Nations and other key bodies. While this disconnect from Asian settings necessitates greater
sensitivity in undertaking comparative analysis, it does not render it impossible.
Broadly, many western states have moved in recent decades through successive stages of civil rights
equality, multiculturalism, and civic integration. For civil rights equality, leadership came above all
from the United States in the 1950s and 1960s. For multiculturalism, Australia and Canada were
notably important from the 1970s onwards. For civic integration, a wide range of developed states
have made key contributions. Today, multiculturalism is the most controversial among these broad
initiatives, with significant popular backlashes witnessed in many western nations since the turn of
the millennium. In 2010‐11, German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed multiculturalism had “utterly
failed”, French President Nicolas Sarkozy pronounced it “dead”, and British Prime Minister David
Cameron made similar remarks. However, in 2010 the Multiculturalism Policy Index reported modest
extensions of multiculturalism in most major nations, and registered only one major backlash in the
Netherlands. In the same year, the Migrant Integration Policy Index released similar results. Thus,
though undeniably controversial, the attempt to accommodate diversity and build safeguards for
minorities that is core to multiculturalism remains a key feature of public policy in many states.
Moreover, while civic integration has been promoted as an alternative, triggering more
assimilationist attempts to facilitate adaptation to the majority culture, it retains many features in
common with multiculturalism.
Underlying these policy initiatives is a tripartite categorization of minority groups that is widely
accepted in western states. Again, this may not be directly transferable to Asian contexts, but it can
help to order and perhaps stimulate thinking. The three groups are immigrant minorities with only a
limited history inside the borders of the state, indigenous peoples in settler states that have histories
stretching back into the mists of time, and national minorities with a claim to some element of
suppressed nationhood. As Myanmar is not a settler state, the second of these three categories is
unlikely to be directly applicable. By contrast, the other two categories appear to have considerable
relevance to its current circumstances.
The Multiculturalism Policy Index tracks eight policies linked to immigrant minorities: political
affirmation; revision of school curricula; media sensitivity; dress code and other exemptions; dual
citizenship; funding for cultural activities; funding for language training; affirmative action. It tracks
six policies focused on national minorities: federalism; official language status; political
representation; funding for language training; political affirmation; international visibility. All of this
material is readily accessible on the Internet, and available for broad debate and analysis. Examining
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Myanmar in this context, it is clear that much could be learned. The country does not yet have basic
civil rights equality. It has very few of the policies implemented by other states with a diverse racial,
ethnic or cultural mix. Thus far, it has made little attempt to develop a diverse national identity.
However, the political reforms presently taking place generate an opportunity to do that as a means
of building democratic citizenship.
Thinking about ways to address Myanmar’s citizenship crisis remains difficult. Zero tolerance for
racism would seem to be a prerequisite, though it will need to secure visible public support from the
entire political spectrum, including not just democratic elements but also religious and military
leaders. In parallel, it is necessary to institute civil and political equality for all citizens. Linked to this
could be full political affirmation of intercultural diversity. Moving beyond this core agenda would be
still more problematic, as it would require constructive policy change in key areas such as education,
the media, and culture. Nevertheless, initiatives have been taken in many different global settings,
and are available for analysis by Myanmar policymakers. There is nothing to be lost, and potentially
much to be gained, by taking a look.
Most of the work in addressing Myanmar’s citizenship crisis will need to be undertaken domestically.
It is from inside the country, at both elite and grassroots levels, that leadership on racism, rights and
a more diverse national identity will have to come. At the same time, however, the international
community can support domestic efforts by signaling robust ongoing support for diversity, and by
helping to fund policy initiatives in the spheres of education reform, media training, cultural renewal,
and global engagement. Unless committed attempts are made to move from vertical forms of racial
and ethnic hierarchy to horizontal forms of democratic citizenship built on intercultural diversity, it is
hard to see how progress with the wider transition can successfully advance.
20
Burmese Politics and the Pathology of Unity
Matthew J. Walton
George Washington University/St Antony’s College, Oxford University
Myanmar is reaching a point in its current political transition where people inside and outside of the
country have begun to express fears about reforms moving too quickly. These fears are often directed
at demands for recognition (if not increased political autonomy) from various marginalized groups;
most commonly in Myanmar these are the ethnic minorities that have been seeking political
recognition of their disadvantaged position in Burmese society for decades.
The common response from many (mostly Burman) political leaders (and more than a few foreign
observers) is that expressing these types of grievances too loudly during this fragile transition could
jeopardize the entire process by damaging national unity at a critical moment. Thus, these grievances
should be deferred until a point where the country is more politically and economically stable.
Whereas General Aung San hoped for “unity in diversity,” I would argue that in Myanmar the
discourse has been more akin to “unity through hegemony” and this construction of unity will
continue to ignore and alienate non‐dominant groups in the country.
Unity has been a consistent theme among Burmese political figures, from the colonial period,
through military rule, to the present period of transition. Of course, some calls for unity have been
for strategic or psychological reasons but in this paper I am interested in the way the Burmese
Buddhist conception of unity functions an indicator of correct moral practice or orientation. I argue
that this conception of unity is actually an anti‐democratic impulse that inhibits the incorporation of
diverse voices and perspectives into the Burmese political sphere and is an impediment to national
reconciliation. Furthermore, it isn’t merely a disciplining tool of former military governments, it’s also
been effectively used by members of opposition parties and groups supposedly committed to justice,
equality, and democratic development.
As a moral concept, unity represents devotion to a common purpose and loyalty to a group or
community; it requires subsuming one’s own interests for the benefit of the whole, something that
encapsulates the Buddhist practice of rejecting the self‐centered ego. In a late 19th century treatise of
advice for a king, the minister U Hpo Hlaing clearly explained the moral dimension of unity, drawn
from the Buddha’s advice to a group of princes. He claimed that, in an effort to achieve unanimity on
an important matter, the discussion must leave out individual preferences. Disunity, then, is the
result of a group of individuals committed only to their own benefit; it is a result of moral failure.
Later in the text, he warned about the four agatis (biases). The failure of a political body to act in a
unified way would indicate that some or all of its members are under the influence of these biases
and, as a result, acting according to their own narrow interests. A unified assembly, on the other
hand, has overcome divisions precisely because its members had developed their moral practice to
21
overcome the agatis and act according to the ideal of selflessness. Unity then depends on individual
moral development and the ability to move beyond self‐interest in making political decisions.
Contemporary uses of the idea of unity also stress its nature as a moral concept. In an article in an
underground journal circulated in Myanmar in the months prior to the 2007 “Saffron Revolution,” a
monk connected unity to correct moral practice and control of one’s actions. “In a united people we
can see that the conduct of their body and mind is honest, their moral conduct is good, and the
strength of their mental qualities is great.” He went on to state that, “unity needs control/restraint
through proper moral conduct and an even mind.” Note the implication that if a country is not
unified it is because its people are morally deficient, unable to control their self‐centered impulses.
The military conception of disciplined democracy arises from the fear of political disorder, which
intensified during the parliamentary period and provided members of the military with their view of
themselves as the only institution capable of holding the country together. The potential divisiveness
of democracy must be mediated by a group capable of transcending potential disunity (the military)
that can also impose discipline on the citizenry.
The military’s narrative of how to develop a lasting democracy is also consistent with the general
Burmese perspective on popular political participation that is skeptical of the ability of the average
person (pu htu zin) to participate in politics and wary of the results when it occurs. That is, most
citizens do not yet have the moral grounding to move beyond their own selfish interests and
participate in a potentially divisive democratic process in a unified way that would benefit the
country as a whole.
A 2008 editorial from the government run New Light of Myanmar warned readers of the dangers of
not practicing democracy “correctly.” The failures of the parliamentary period were “not because of
democracy, but because of those who implemented democracy, and those who were desperate to
come to power with egotism, attachment to the party concerned, and selfishness.” Another editorial
reinforced the idea that only the military was morally capable of rising above this egotism and
working for the benefit of the country. The importance of “disciplined” participation implies that
most citizens were not and are still not morally equipped to take part in the correct manner without
continued guidance. The strongest indicator of this moral immaturity from the military’s perspective
was continued political opposition to the state.
In a 2005 speech, former Senior General Than Shwe stated that “Under a democratic system, only
high education standards can ensure discipline and a clear perception of right from wrong.” He also
warned of the dangers of a return to the disorder and chaos that characterized the parliamentary
period and then drew on the four agatis (biases) that U Hpo Hlaing used to argue for collective
decision‐making and that Aung San Suu Kyi also used to criticize military rule. “Genuine democracy
can flourish only when each and every citizen possesses reasoning power and is able to vote for
delegates without [the] four forms of partiality.” The military instituted “disciplined democracy” as a
form of moral and political guardianship and military leaders’ claims regarding the legitimacy of their
guardian role refer to the purity of their intentions (non‐disintegration of the Union, as opposed to
personal gain) and position themselves as the only group capable of making selfless decisions with
the interest of the entire nation in mind.
22
This skepticism is also not just limited to past political figures or the military. In an interview just after
his release, the 88 Generation activist Min Ko Naing stated “It is very important to have discipline and
unity. We have to show that we deserve democracy.” This conception of unity reinforces an
anti‐democratic discourse that questions the ability of individual citizens to (ever) have the moral
capacity (ability to think beyond their own interests) to effectively participate in self‐governance.
There has also been a persistent concern for the collective political action of the party system. The
proliferation of political parties and events like the 1958 split in the ruling AFPFL was seen as
evidence of disunity and of the moral deterioration of the government and the citizens. Seeing
political parties as evidence of factionalism continued throughout the period of military rule,
especially after the ill‐fated 1990 elections. A 1998 article in the New Light of Myanmar stated, “As to
freedom of organizational activity and expression, it can be a big danger, as long as there are political
parties that still cannot renounce the way of confrontation, defiance of authority and anarchy, so
there will be only such freedom within the bounds of rules and regulations.” Here, “the way of
confrontation” implies that any disagreement is unacceptable and is just a first step toward
fragmentation and the dissolution of the country. Whereas the phrase “defiance of authority” implies
that the authorities know what’s best; they are the (only) ones (capable of) working for the benefit of
all, while any opposition could only be selfish and misguided.
Finally, a discussion of unity as a moral concept cannot ignore the ways in which groups across the
political spectrum have used the rhetoric of unity to quash dissent within their own organizations. In
this way, the unity discourse has functioned as a disciplining tool, deployed in order to win an
internal argument or move a group past a contentious disagreement. Multiple scholars have noted
instances where “moralized” concepts like unity have been used to repress dissenting or minority
views, by implicitly or explicitly questioning the moral conduct of those who disagreed with their
policies.
While I would argue that the Burman‐dominated discourse on national unity presents the greatest
impediment to national reconciliation, a concern with unity has stifled difference and generated
conflict within non‐Burman and other minority groups in the country as well. For example, even
though Christians are not the majority among Karens, Christians have dominated the leadership of
the KNU and Karen ethnic oppositional identity is broadly conceived as Christian. This has resulted in
discrimination against Buddhists and lack of recognition of Buddhist Karen within the movement. The
split between the DKBA and the KNU is an example of the destructive effects that an over‐riding and
homogenizing concern for unity can have on a diverse political community.
This brief examination of unity as a moral notion also demonstrates the ways in which political
concepts acquire additional dimensions of significance when interpreted within a Burmese Buddhist
worldview. In this narrative, unity is an indicator of correct moral practice, of the ability of individuals
in a group to overcome the natural human inclination towards self‐interest; it functions as an
evaluative moral concept. Those who threaten unity do so because they are enslaved to selfish and
individualistic desires and unable to see or work for the benefit of the community. Those who control
the discourse on unity position themselves as morally superior; they see themselves as capable of
overcoming their desires, even sacrificing individual interests, to realize a goal that will benefit all.
23
The Displaced in Reform
Khin Khin Lwin
UNESCO Yangon
The reformists are leading Myanmar’s political reform during this transition period. However, the
situation in border areas and conflict/post‐conflict zones remains highly volatile and insecure. Illegal
trade, the grab for natural resources, economic inequity, highly contested development projects fuel
conflict, threaten communities and the country’s potential for transformation. Military officers begin
to participate in peace talks, but security sector reform is at a stand‐still and demilitarisation, a
sensitive issue. Equitable distribution of power across the political spectrum, the peace processes,
and constitutional reform remain essential to driving the reform process forward. Underneath the
façade of seeming progress is a well of deep injustices. Significant new freedoms have been attained
but health, education and other basic services remain severely limited, and mistrust, violence and
abuse prevail, especially for the most marginalised and vulnerable. In the midst of rapid changes and
exciting opportunities, there is unease within communities affect by the conflict in Kachin and
northern Shan States. What happens to ordinary people in transition? What does an elder feel about
being displaced? What are the real battles facing youth? Who do the children fear? What is a
mother’s burning question? I would like to take this opportunity to raise their voices and to make
them present to us.
There are approximately 60,000 displaced persons in KIO or non‐State areas and 40,000 in
State‐controlled areas. These villagers fled their homes due to direct attacks or due to fear of
violence resulting from military. Initially the people remained close to their villages, or hid in the
jungle, to monitor the situation, feed their livestock and take care of their plantations. When it
became evident that the fighting would continue, the people began to move into church compounds,
monasteries and places designated as “internally displaced camps.” For weeks, I sat with individuals
or groups of survivors listening to their fears, feelings of uncertainty, pain, frustration, and struggles.
These individuals object to being labelled as “displaced persons” and “victims.” Their bitterness is
evident: “We are neither displaced nor victims; this is our land, our ancestral land: we have lived
here for generations. How can we be the displaced? We are not rich or educated like you are in the
city, but we own our land. We worked our own land for our livelihood; we lived in dignity. We were
forced into this situation.” These feelings are prevalent in all those who are living in camps.
The past, present and future of these individuals speak of loss, deprivation and anxiety. In the past,
they have faced the loss of their life’s work and investments; in the present they contend with
deprivation of needs, comforts and opportunities; in the future they will face issues related to
security, loss of land, rebuilding lives and relationships. Villages remain abandoned either voluntarily
or due to pressure from one or all of the many State and non‐State armed groups in the area. In
some areas, only those of Kachin ethnicity and tribal ties are forced to move out, whereas the rest
are allowed to remain, creating suspicion and divisions among neighbours and communities. In some
24
others, the local population is taxed and coerced by two or more of these armed groups, straining
their resources, and their physical and psychosocial well‐being. For these communities, even the
most insignificant things in life, would never be the same. Families are torn apart: one member
fighting for the State army, another for a non‐State armed group or militia; decision‐making powers
play out in relationships with devastating consequences; every family is obligated to provide one,
two, three, sometimes all sons for the frontlines, and the daughters for health, education or social
services – with the exception of the few with enough connections or influence to send their children
far away from the conflict.
The shelters at the camps are basic: long structures on bamboo stilts, built mainly with zinc sheets
and 9‐ply wood, partitioned into roughly 10‐by‐15‐feet sections all held together by wire and
bamboo scaffolding. In some camps blue tarps are used instead of zinc sheets. For almost three
months, I lived in the land of Loss. During the past years, the communities in camps and in conflict
areas have gradually learnt to live with loss: personal items, house and land, livelihood, crops and
animals, education opportunities, health services, dignity. At the camps, it is a daily struggle of
learning to live with less: less space, less solidarity among families, less relationships and contact, less
food, less movement, less work, less will‐power, less hope, and less certainty in what the future holds.
In a number of camps, firewood is scarce, as are fresh meat and fresh vegetables. Some camps are
miles away from where firewood can be collected, which means walking for miles – most of the time
on an empty stomach; markets open once every five days, but very few can afford to purchase food;
the majority of families cook two meals a day in the camps: the morning meal at around eight and
the evening meal at around four thirty. Meals consist mainly of vegetables, roots, and on a market
day, eggs, or a few fish; fresh meat is beyond our budget, although, from time to time, there would
be a piece of dried meat or salted fish grounded into the roots and chillies.
As in every other resource‐rich state, these areas in conflict have been plundered by every top dog
that has passed by. Even now, whoever wins the war will battle amongst themselves to sell the state
out to the highest bidder and divide the spoils of peace. While the locals have been forced to flee the
fighting, their homes have been looted by hungry and deprived victors – their animals killed and
eaten, their plantations and forests cut down by over‐zealous patrols from different armed groups,
their land simply taken over by locals or outsiders with powerful connections. The majority of elders,
who have experienced armed conflict and broken promises from both the state and the KIA, believe
that it is more dignified to die fighting rather than starving in peace times; the younger generation,
fight their own battles of drug addiction, sexual abuse, intimidation, conscription, prostitution and
HIV while dreaming of family, friends, success, and being “hip and fresh;” children – the most
adaptable group of the general population – play, sing, dance under the proud but worried eyes of
their elders, without inhibition as only they know how, but with a sense of caution and wariness.
It has been extremely painful to be separated from their communities, land and the comfort of their
home. Equally humiliating to these proud people is the need to accept “hand‐outs” and to live in
often squalid and unhygienic conditions that lack privacy, facilities and security, the discrimination
and bullying by local residents due to tension over resources, the inability to provide for their
families or to live up to traditional, expected roles in the community such as organizing important
rituals and celebrations, to ensure their children’s education opportunities, to seek life‐sustaining
support and to access services due to lack of income. The elderly express feelings of uselessness,
25
depression, sadness, deprived of their life’s work and investments – an irreparable loss with no hope
of ever being restored in their lifetime.
Families in the camps commit or face violence and abuse due to the over‐consumption of alcohol
and lack of easy access to drugs, inadequate and unsafe shelter arrangements, risky situations, in
which young boys and girls are placed, domestic violence, and unwanted pregnancies. It is extremely
difficult for the displaced to generate any income while living in the camps, with consequences on
various aspects of people’s lives: access to appropriate medical services, education, general sense of
security, and negatively impacts their sense of self‐reliance and psychological health. Where there
are casual labour opportunities too these vulnerable communities are exploited and paid low wages.
They are pushed into adopting risky coping strategies such as working illegally across the border, or
selling self, community or family members to human traffickers. Movement in and out of camps is
strictly regulated by camp committees enforcing curfew hours and systems to record individual
travelling out of camp for specific periods of time. This is said to have reduced opportunities for
human trafficking, military recruitment and prostitution.
When the war began, no one expected it to continue for long. As the conflict enters its second year,
uncertainties as to when the conflict would end and what would happen should the crisis last longer
raises fears. This awareness is very strong among the displaced population, further adding to the
already uncertain projections of their future, straining their capacity for resilience and their will to
survive. How do they cope? Women quite often express and voice out their frustrations, pray
individually or in groups, share feelings with friends and neighbours. Men consider their participation
to be a unified and collective act of defending the national cause, often making reference to their
sacrifice for a worthy cause, while others cope by employing negative strategies such as drinking,
drugs, abuse and violence.
What do the displaced expect from the peace talks?
Safe, dignified, voluntary return and resettlement
Participation in informed decision‐making processes
Fulfilment of basic needs
Access to land and livelihood opportunities
Rebuilding lives, restoring relationships, and community assets
The right to determine their own and their children’s and grandchildren’s future
26
Risk Assessment, International Investment and Responsible Business Practice in Myanmar:
What Has Changed?
John Bray
Control Risks, Tokyo
In late 2012, the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) published by the international anti‐corruption
NGO Transparency International (TI) gave Myanmar a score of 15 points out of 100.6 In the CPI, 100
stands for the highest standards of transparency, and Denmark received the highest score of 90 out
100. By contrast, Myanmar is near the bottom of the table, only just above Sudan. Looking at the CPI,
one is tempted to believe that nothing in Myanmar has changed.
A reading of the international business press suggests the opposite conclusion. For example, a Wall
Street Journal article published on 2 June begins by stating that “Interest in Myanmar’s investment
potential has reached feverish levels over the past year”.7 If one looks no further than the first
sentence, it is easy to jump to the conclusion that everything has changed. However, reading further,
one quickly learns that foreign investment in Myanmar in 2012 was only $1.4bn, roughly the same
figure as in Laos, which has only a tenth of Myanmar’s population. Furthermore, weak governance –
including perceived high levels of corruption – is among the deterrents to would‐be investors. Some
things have changed, but not everything.
International Perspectives
Control Risks recently commissioned the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) to conduct a survey of
International Business Attitudes to Corruption. 8 The survey covered senior legal officers and
management professionals in 316 companies worldwide. It did not focus on Myanmar specifically but
many of its findings carry lessons for the country as it presses ahead with its reform process.
In the first question, we asked respondents to select their two greatest concerns from a list of five
potential areas of corruption risk. The results were as follow: 58% of respondents chose ‘risks
associated with ensuring the smooth running of the business, e.g. demands for bribes from customs,
police officers or tax inspectors responsibility for anti‐corruption’; 52% chose ‘risks associated with
your company’s relationship with third parties, e.g. commercial agents, consultants’; 29% chose ‘risks
associated with winning business, e.g. demands for bribes to secure contract’; 25% chose ‘risks
associated with doing business in particular countries’; and 12% chose ‘risks associated with business
partners, e.g. joint venture partners, politically exposed persons’.
At first sight, it is surprising that risks associated with running of the business should rank so high in
6 See TI’s website, www.transparency.org, for a full report on the CPI, including an explanation of its methodology.
7 Natasha Brereton‐Fukui, “WEF Meets in Myanmar as Investment Falls Short”, Wall Street Journal, 2 June 2013. http://online.wsj.com
8 For the full text of the survey, see www.controlrisks.com.
27
respondents’ concerns. The reason is that demands for bribes from – for example – tax officials or
customs officers ‐ often come across as a form of extortion. The amounts of money exchanged may
be relatively small – often less than USD 100 ‐ but demands typically carry a threat: ‘If you don’t pay,
your business will suffer’, whether as the result of expensive delays in customs processing or license
applications, or in the form of unjustified tax requisitions. International companies are reluctant to
pay because US, UK and other Western law enforcement agencies are cracking down on commercial
bribes whether they are paid at home or internationally, including in countries such as Myanmar.
The emphasis on ‘operational bribes’ does not mean that other risks are unimportant. To gain a more
nuanced view of how companies view them, we offered respondents a series of scenarios and asked
them to comment on whether the risks were ‘insignificant’, ‘routine’ or ‘major’‐ or whether they
amounted to a ‘deal‐breaker’ meaning that the company could not go ahead with the project under
those circumstances.
In one of the scenarios, we invited respondents to consider a situation where ‘judges deciding
commercial disputes are notoriously corrupt’ Hardly anyone thought that the risks were
‘insignificant’ and nearly a fifth of respondents thought that this situation amounted to a
‘deal‐breaker’. Nevertheless, it was striking that more than 40% thought that the risks were ‘routine’.
This does not necessarily mean that they would bribe the judges where necessary. Instead,
companies may manage such risks by specifying in contracts that commercial disputes would be
decided outside the country concerned. Alternatively, they may decide that in the event of a dispute
they will have to accept a negotiated settlement on terms that they consider unjust rather than risk
going to court. The possibility that this might happen is not an absolute deterrent to investment but
it is one among several factors that they will need to take into account.
In a second scenario, we asked respondents to consider a situation where a potential joint venture
partner was a ‘cousin of the Prime Minister’ (the same kinds of issue would apply to relatives of any
senior government official). The range of responses was striking. Nearly a quarter (23%) thought that
the risks amounted to a ‘deal‐breaker’, but almost as many (20%) – including a large proportion of
Western companies ‐ thought that the risks were ‘insignificant’.
In Control Risks’ view, it would be wrong to be complacent. In certain circumstances there may well
be legitimate commercial reasons to work with the relative of a senior politician. Equally, there are
key questions that need to be asked: what exactly is the nature of the relative’s contribution to the
joint venture, and how exactly are they rewarded? To take a cynical view – which will, after all, be the
view taken by regulators and investigative journalists – is there a possibility that they are being paid
for minimal services as a kind of proxy bribe to the official? And what happens if the government
changes?
Implications for Myanmar
The survey results point to a wide range of approaches to risks associated with high levels of
corruption: not all companies will regard such risks as a deterrent to investment. However, a
significant minority of companies will decide that they would prefer to put their money in other
countries that present fewer problems. This is all the more damaging because these are the likely to
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be the companies that operate according to higher commercial, technical and corporate
responsibility standards.
In Control Risks’ recent experience, international companies frequently ask questions about the legal
situation in Myanmar as well as the wider operating environment when deciding whether or not to
invest. So far, the answers are not entirely satisfactory, and this is one of the reasons why
international investment has been slower than might be expected.
Companies’ concerns are not so much to do with the letter of the law, but rather with competence of
officials at every level, and especially the judiciary. Myanmar has recently signed the New York
Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards. This is a step forward
because it means that in future it may be possible to resort to international arbitration to resolve
commercial disputes. However, Myanmar’s parliament will still need to implement the provisions of
the Convention in domestic legislation, and the long‐term objective of ensuring that Myanmar judges
are properly trained in commercial law remains as important as ever.
Partnership risk is a second major concern that often comes up in Control Risks’ discussions with
would‐be investors. At a minimum, they want to know whether their prospective joint venture
partners are included on a US sanctions list. More than that, they want to be able to assess their
personal connections and reputations for integrity.
To return to the question posed by the title of this article, the issue is not so much whether Myanmar
is changing but how fast, and in what direction. President Thein Sein has recognised the need to raise
governance standards and take concrete steps to tackle corruption. Rapid progress is an urgent
requirement if both domestic and international companies are to flourish in the new Myanmar.
29
Politicization of China’s Economic Investment in Myanmar: Cause and Impact
Zhu Li
Executive Director and Professor, Research Institute for Indian Ocean Economics
Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
The Present Situation of Sino‐Myanmar Economic Cooperation
Due to geopolitical reasons, Sino‐Myanmar economic cooperation has a long history.
In 2005, the volume of trade between China and Myanmar was $1.2 billion, while the bilateral trade
volume rose to $6.97 billion in 2012. Since 2005, the China’s investment in Myanmar has increased
considerably, surging from $110 million to $8.75 billion in recent 5 years. Most of China’s investment
projects focus on the resources industries, such as energy, mineral industry and so on.
On May 27, 2011, The Chinese President Hu Jingtao met with the Myanmar President Thein Sein in
Beijing, both sides issued a joint statement of building the comprehensive strategic partnership,
through which they try to enhance bilateral cooperation.
Up to August, 2012, the total investment of China in Myanmar has reached $14.14 billion, and to
Myanmar, China has become the biggest investment country compared with other foreign countries.
The Politicization of Myanmar Economy: Two Typical Cases about China
Myitsone Dam
Myitsone Dam is controversial for at least six reasons: non‐transparency, minimal electricity supply to
the domestic market, forcible displacement of residents, predominant use of Chinese labors, adverse
environmental impacts, and disrespect of local cultural heritage.
Some analysis points out, the transition of democratic reform in Myanmar and the prejudice hold by
Western countries on Chinese enterprises’ investment in hydropower project of Myanmar lead to the
suspension of the dam construction.
The sudden suspension of construction of Myitsone Dam highlights the political risk of China’s
investment in Myanmar. Since that time, “China’s investment in Myanmar” has entered in the most
difficult time, some other projects mired in controversy and there were no more new investment
projects of China since then.
Latpadaung copper mine
In November 2012, a mass protest against the injustice of demolition compensation and the
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environmental pollution broke out in Latpadaung copper mine, the protesters occupied the camp of
Wanbao Company near the mine, causing that the construction of the project was forced to halt.
On December 1, Myanmar government set up a commission of inquiry. On March 12, 2013, the final
report of the commission manifested that, the project should continue to implement, however, it
requires of necessary improvement measures. The problem of transparency is put forward many
times in this report. According to the report, due to the low transparency, local people knew little
about the project, which leads to misunderstanding.
The Politicization of Myanmar Economy: Cause
(1) To Resolve a Variety of Internal Contradictions
First, Myanmar government need to balance the domestic political interests and improve the
government image. During the transition period, the most important thing for Thein Sein
government is to shape a new image of government and to convert the people’s conceptions of the
new government, enhancing the public’s trust. Therefore, the voices of the common people’s (or just
in the name of it) has become the focus of Thein Sein government and it hope to take the
opportunity to get the public’s trust. China is the biggest investor in Myanmar, so its large
construction projects must attracted great attention.
Second, to accelerate the National Reconciliation and Reduce the Conflicts of Interests in the
Minority Areas.
Third, mediate the conflicts between the old and new Interests. China’s investment projects in
Myanmar are always under attack, the deep reason is the conflicts between the old and new
interests.
(2) To Balance Myanmar’s Relations with Other Countries
First, Need to Weaken China’s Influence. China’s influence in Myanmar is growing, which deepens
the anxiety of Myanmar government and the foreign powers. It is generally believe that China’s
strategic intent includes two aspects: to strengthen energy security; to open a new channel into the
India Ocean, becoming a real sense of the “Two Ocean” country.
Second, To Balance International Relations and Interests. In the process of balancing international
relations, many countries—the United States, Japan— gradually perceived the pressure from China,
so they began to enhance the diplomatic interactions with Myanmar. Especially after the United
States implemented the “Return to Asia‐Pacific” strategy, Myanmar has become a new hot spot of
the interests game between China and the United States. The balance strategy of diplomacy in
Myanmar aims to stimulate the competition between the great powers and maximize its own
interests. Western countries have canceled economic sanctions to Myanmar gradually.
(3) The Problems of Chinese Enterprises
We need to reflection on China’s overseas investment patterns. Most of China’s oversea investment
projects are implemented by the state‐owned enterprises that is used to dealing with governments.
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They tend to build a good relation with governments, while ignore the social public, leading to the
opaque of the projects and the unfair distribution of the profits.
Many Chinese state‐owned enterprises is lack of corporate social responsibility.
Impacts on the Politicized Tendency of Chinese Economic Investment in Myanmar
To Transform the Sino‐ Myanmar Relations from Bilateral to Multilateral
The advancement of democratization process in Myanmar changed the Sino‐Myanmar relations that
is an important part of Myanmar’s foreign relations, but not all. What the Myanmar government
need is not only the bilateral relationship with China, but also the multilateral international relations
that includes China, it is impossible for the Sino‐Myanmar relations to go back to the previous state
of unipolar. However, China is one of the most important neighbor of Myanmar, and China will exert
positive effect on the development of Myanmar. Therefore, both of them need to adjust their
mentality and promote the regional prosperity jointly on the basis of the existing good cooperation.
The Pain of the Transition of Myanmar Government: the Cost of the Democratization
In the process of democratization in Myanmar, the government also faced severe economic
challenges. Foreign enterprises are cautious about the investment in Myanmar, hindering the
economic development of Myanmar. Under the condition of giving priority to the political reform,
the development of economy in Myanmar will be affected largely.
Transformation of the Ways of Dealing with the Disputes
As we can see, from the event of Myitsone Dam to the case of Latpadaung copper mine, the way of
Thein Sein government in dealing with complicated international issues has become increasingly
mature.
Shift China’s overseas investment patterns and Its Focus on the Project of People’s Livelihood
Cooperation is the balance of interests, rather than imposing the unilateral interests on the other
side, the same is to the cooperation of China and Myanmar.
Conclusion
The politicization of China’s investment in Myanmar is the inevitable outcome of Myanmar’s political
transition. First of all, China is the main investor of Myanmar; Secondly, many Chinese investment
projects came into being during the period of military rule, which has become a sensitive political
problem in the process of democratization in Myanmar; Thirdly, Myanmar need to rebalance the
international relations and interests, improving its international status. The politicized
tendency—including Myanmar’s domestic democratization, national reconciliation, external relations
and other problems—will pose great effect on Sino‐Myanmar economic cooperation. In the
meantime, it will, to some extent, evolve into a hot spot in the multi‐stakeholder game.
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Myanmar’s Oil and Gas Sector since 2011: Progress and Challenges
Zhu Xianghui
Center for Myanmar Studies, Yunnan University
Since the inauguration of the new government in 2011, it has pushed forward the reform with
poverty eradication and improving people’s livelihood as its mantra. Thus, Myanmar’s oil and gas
sector is facing a new period of strategic development. The country is using a variety of technical and
economic means to adjust the domestic investment, to ensure the domestic energy security, to make
more rational distribution of resources into the exploration, exploitation, production and other areas
in the oil and gas industry. A close study of the oil and gas sector reveals that the unique
geographical location and rich of oil and gas resources give Myanmar an important position in the
regional oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, the weak infrastructure, lack of technology and capital also
bring about great challenges for its future development.
An Overview of Myanmar’s Oil and Gas Industry
Myanmar used to be an important oil exporting country in the Southeast Asia. Although its oil and
gas industry declined slowly after World War II, Myanmar’s oil and gas production together with the
position of its oil and gas industry gradually recovered since its opening‐up in 1988. According to the
BP statistic, the country has a natural gas reserve of 7.8 trillion cubic feet and accounts for 0.1% of
the world’s total reserves. But the data from EIA (US) reveals that the reserves of Myanmar’s oil and
gas are 10 trillion cubic feet. Ministry of Energy of Myanmar (MOE) claims that the country owns
0.58 billion barrels of oil deposit and 22.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. From a global perspective,
Myanmar does not have particularly notable oil and gas reserves. It’s ranked fortieth for proved
reserves of natural gas and seventy‐seventh for proved reserves of oil. However, from a regional
perspective Myanmar’s reserves are significant. Currently, Myanmar exports the largest volume of
natural gas by pipeline and the fourth largest volume of natural gas overall in the Asia‐Pacific region.
Myanmar’s oil and gas production areas can be divided into two types: onshore production areas and
offshore production areas. It is reported that Myanmar has a daily average production of 7500
barrels of oil on shore and 65 million cubic feet of gas.
Myanmar exports the largest volume of natural gas by pipeline and the fourth largest volume of
natural gas overall in the Asia‐Pacific region. Myanmar’s oil and gas production areas can be divided
into two types: onshore production areas and offshore production areas. Myanmar’s onshore oil
reserve is 0.5 billion barrels and natural gas reserve is 970 billion cubic feet. There are 14 onshore oil
and gas basins in Myanmar. Myanmar has an offshore oil reserve of 8.1 billion barrels and an
offshore natural gas reserve of 10 trillion cubic feet. Myanmar authority divides those into 3 areas
and 25 blocks. The three zones are Rakhine Offshore area, Moattama Offshore area and Tanintharyi
Offshore area.
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Exploration and Excavation
So far, exploration and development are only carried out in the Central Myanmar Basin, the Pyay
Embayment Basin and the Ayeyarwady Delta Basin. There are a little or even no exploitation in the
other 11 basins. It’s possible to discover new oil and gas reserves in many other places in Myanmar.
Therefore, Myanmar has great potential for oil and gas exploitation. Compared to onshore oil and gas
resources, Myanmar has a greater potential in offshore oil and gas exploitation. Currently, the daily
productions of Myanmar’s offshore fields are 12 thousand crude oil and 1.05 billion cubic feet
natural gas. With the new discovery of gas in Myanmar’s coastal areas, its offshore gas reserve is
large as well. The Yadana oil and gas field in the block M‐5 and the Yetagun oil and gas field in the
blocks M‐12 and M‐13 have the highest yield in Myanmar’s offshore oil fields. The discoveries at the
block A‐1 and block M‐9 increased Myanmar’s share of proved natural gas reserves in the Asia‐Pacific
region from 2.6% to 4.14%, to become the seventh largest in the region.
Natural Gas Transport
Myanmar has built more than 2000 miles onshore natural gas pipeline, the diameter of which is
mostly 6‐20 inch. Compressed natural gas (CNG) is generally used in industry and daily life. From
1986 to 2004, 5 CNG filling stations were constructed, of which 2 are located in Yangon, 2 seats in
Yenangyaung and 1 in Chauk. Besides, Myanmar has converted 587 oil buses into natural gas vehicles.
Myanmar’s CNG developed rapidly from 2004 to 2011. As of June 2011, Myanmar has 27472 natural
gas buses and 45 CNG filling stations, 40 in Yangon, 2 in Mandalay, 2 in Yenangyaung and 1 in Chauk.
The goal of Myanmar natural gas market is to build reasonable number of CNG filling stations along
the gas pipeline.
Export of Natural Gas
In 1998, Myanmar became a gas exporting country. Two years later in 2000, it exported the largest
volume of natural gas by pipeline in the Asia‐Pacific region. Currently, it’s the fourth largest natural
gas exporting country in the region. According to the British Petroleum Organization, Myanmar
became the eleventh largest country exporting natural gas by pipeline in 2006. Currently, natural gas
is one of Myanmar’s main export products. Increasing gas exports helps Myanmar gain a rising status
in the regional oil and gas exploration area. As the per capita use of natural gas is growing in
Myanmar, natural gas is to be allocated for domestic consumption as priority. According to the
Ministry of Energy, Myanmar has earned 16 billion US dollars in 2007‐2012 fiscal years. It is estimated
that the total export of gas set a record of 3.5 billion US dollars during 2011‐2012 fiscal year.
Governance and Transparency
Since the inauguration of U Thein Sein government, Myanmar Government expresses its intention to
reform its energy sector, and to facilitate the extractives transparency. Myanmar is preparing to
implement Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (EITI), which will provide a platform for
conversations though its multi‐stakeholder group. On 14 December, President Thein Sein has
appointed U Soe Thein, Minister of the President’s Office, to lead EITI implementation in Myanmar,
and established the EITI Leading Authority. On May 20, 2013 Minister of Energy U Than Htay and
Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Carlos Pascual released a Joint
34
Statement on Good Governance and Transparency in the Energy Sector. Through the Energy
Governance and Capacity Initiative (EGCI), the United States intends to support technical
capacity‐building to facilitate long‐term sector management, financial accountability and safety. On
6th June, 2013, the 22th World Economic Forum on East Asia was held in Naypyidaw, a report titled
New Energy Architecture: Myanmar was released calling for new strategy and planning on
Myanmar’s oil and gas industry.
Foreign Investment in Oil and Gas Sector
Foreign investment in Myanmar’s oil and gas industry has increased since its opening‐up in 1989 and
other preferential policies. Especially after 2000, foreign companies’ involvement in Myanmar’s oil
and gas exploitation increased significantly. Projects, which foreign companies involved in, are mostly
concentrated in coastal areas. Countries investing in Myanmar include ASEAN members like Thailand,
Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, as well as non‐ASEAN states like China, India, South
Korea, Japan, Australia, Britain, Canada, and Russia and so on. Among them, companies from China
and India are most active. Besides, Thailand is one of Myanmar’s largest investment sources in oil
and gas industry. Since 2012 PTTEP has drawn bold plans to expand its fuel station and retail network
in Myanmar. With Myanmar’s reform and opening up and the lifting of western sanctions, oil giants
like Total, Chevron, Shell intend to participate in the development of Myanmar’s oil and gas sector.
The Myanmar‐China Gas Pipeline is scheduled to operate on May 2013, and crude oil pipeline to
operate on September 2013.
Generally MOGE cooperates with foreign companies in approach of PSC. There are altogether 101
blocks for business cooperation with foreign oil companies: 53 onshore and 48 offshore. By January
2012, there are 8 foreign oil companies working in 10 onshore blocks, 12 in 27 offshore blocks. In
January 2013, India has won PSC‐1 onshore block bid and on 28 May signed PSC contract with MOGE
as holder of 77.5% shares. On April 10, 2013, Myanmar government initiated bidding for 30 offshore
blocks, By May 2013, there are 59 pre‐qualified international companies that have been enlisted on
the onshore blocks bidding. Competition between foreign companies brings advantages for Myanmar
in pitting China, India with ASEAN member’s demand for energy to require those countries provide
reasonable economic interests to Myanmar.
Advantages and Challenges
The Oil and Gas sector has made great strides during last two decades. Yet insufficient terminals,
defunct port system and underdeveloped transportation have undermined its potential for progress.
Vast Potentials in Newly Explored Blocks
Myanmar’s proved oil and gas reserves have doubled in the past decade. The revelation of block A‐1
and block M‐9 increased Myanmar’s share of proved natural gas reserves in the Asia‐Pacific region
from 2.6% to 4.14%, to become the seventh largest in the region. Block A‐1 locates in Rakhine coastal
area, near Sittwe Port. Currently, there is no accurate figure of the natural gas reserves in block A‐1.
The conservative estimate of its natural gas reserves is 10 trillion cubic feet, with about 4‐6 trillion
cubic feet in Shwe gas field and 5 trillion cubic feet in the Shwe Phyu gas field. In addition to block
A‐1, Mya natural gas field (block A‐3) was also found in Rakhine coastal area, whose estimated
35
natural gas reserve is 2 trillion cubic feet. The gas reserves in M‐9 block are estimated to be 8 trillion
cubic feet. These findings further improved Myanmar’s position in the international energy market.
Insufficient Oil for Domestic Demand
Compared with natural gas, Myanmar is not so rich in crude oil reserves. Myanmar’s oil and gas
production has increased since 1988. The production of crude oil has increased from 4.83 million
barrels in 1988 to 7.62 million barrels in 2007, with an increasing rate of 67%. At the same time,
Myanmar’s oil demand is also growing. The demand of gasoline, diesel and other fuel oil has
increased by four fold during nearly two decades. Diesel import accounts for more than half of the
domestic consumption and the Myanmar government has to pay for the subsidies caused by the
different prices in the international and domestic markets. Thus, Myanmar is still incapable of
providing self‐sufficient crude oil and its import of petroleum products has been on increase.
Deficiencies in Oil and Gas Market
The segmentation and monopoly is serious in Myanmar’s oil and gas market, resulting in market
mechanism malfunction, business inefficiency and underdevelopment of oil and gas market.
Moreover, there are administrative monopoly and market access restriction in Myanmar’s oil and gas
industry. The state‐running oil marketing terminals have the priority to gain petroleum products.
During the privatization of state assets in recent three years, some fuel stations were sold to private
enterprises, and since February 2012 private enterprises have been entitled to importation and
exportation, storage and sale of oil and gas products, but more is to be reformed to break the
monopoly and promote the effective circulation of products and service.
Refineries to be Constructed
Currently, Myanmar has set up only three refineries, namely, Thanlyin Refinery, Chauk Refinery and
Thanbayakan Refinery, all of them locates in Yangon region’s Thanlyin town and Magway division.
The oldest one was built in 1954, and can’t operate at full capacity due to the long period. The
combined capacity of the three refineries is 51 thousand barrels per day, which can’t meet the
domestic need. In the coastal area of lower Myanmar, natural gas power generation plays an
important role. Myanmar government is eager to build new refinery. In the meeting on May 27 2013,
President U Thein Sein urged China National Petroleum Corporation’s new president Liao Yong Yuan
to construct refinery plants in Myanmar. It is proposed in the Myanmar‐China Oil and Gas Pipelines
project that a refinery plant in Mandalay, with a capacity of 56 thousand barrels per day, is to be
constructed in order to refine the annual 2 million tons crude oil downloaded from China‐Myanmar
pipeline. It can process crude oil produced in Myanmar or from Middle East. Oil products can be
transported to destination by the pipeline after processing. The oil products of the refinery also can
be put into local market. Therefore, building refinery in Myanmar can meet its domestic demand and
greatly reduce the cost and risk of international transportation.
Gas Grid to be Developed
Although Myanmar is rich in natural gas resources, its domestic gas usage rate is growing too. Thus, it
needs to expand gas transportation grid. It needs to improve cross‐border gas transportation grid to
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strengthen exporting capacity, and with the development of Myanmar’s economy, residents must
also have more gas demand. It implicates the existing 2000 kilometers gas pipeline be expanded for
secondary supply network. When conditions permitted, natural gas pipeline can be reach to some
households in large cities.
Oil and Gas Legislation to Be Promulgated
Myanmar needs develop specific regulations for energy, and its legal system for oil and gas
exploitation needs to be improved. Currently, foreign investment in Myanmar’s energy industry has
to comply with several laws and regulations. Although Myanmar has developed some policies
relating to oil and gas exploitation and consumption, the energy sector can’t fully achieve the
objectives due to lack of specific energy laws and regulations.
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From ‘Outside’ to ‘Inside’: The Transformation of Activism over Energy Projects in Myanmar
Adam Simpson
Director, Centre for Peace, Conflict and Mediation, Hawke Research Institute
University of South Australia
The search for energy security and the establishment of reliable transnational energy markets is one
of the key factors re‐shaping politics and governance throughout Asia. With the energy needs of
China and India in particular rapidly increasing, Myanmar, sandwiched between the two, has taken
on greater significance both as a source and a transit route for energy. With the development of
these regional energy markets there is a pressing need for effective environmental governance of
transnational energy projects that have the potential to inflict serious and widespread social and
environmental impacts. Until recently most forms of state‐led governance in Myanmar were
authoritarian and haphazard. With the political reforms currently underway, however, the new
government is attempting to establish more democratic, rigorous and transparent forms of
governance. Non‐state actors, and particularly environmental activists, can make an important
contribution to this transition. Historically, most activism has been transnational in nature, as it has
been undertaken by exiled activists based in Thailand or otherwise beyond the reach of the
Myanmar state. As the opportunities for political contribution and dissent in Myanmar increase more
activism is taking place inside Myanmar, as exiled activists return and domestic activists emerge. This
paper explores this unfolding transformation of activism from an exiled ‘activist diaspora’ to domestic
activism, particularly in relation to campaigns against the gas and oil pipelines being built across
Myanmar to provide energy for south‐west China.
During military rule the displaced and rebellious borderland communities were the most fertile
spaces for the development of environment movements against transnational energy projects based
in Myanmar. Despite the dangers these activists often re‐entered Myanmar incognito to undertake
research for NGOs that were based outside Myanmar’s borders. These activists developed networks
between displaced communities inside Myanmar and the exiles across the border (South 2004). The
indeterminate nature of the zones of operation that environmental activists inhabited led them to
undertake a broad range of activities. No border‐based environmental groups were simply lobby
groups but their activities included lobbying international actors, writing reports, undertaking covert
field research and providing clandestine education and training in Myanmar.
This exodus from authoritarian‐ruled Myanmar to engage in activism in its borderlands and
neighbouring countries resulted in what can be described as an ‘activist diaspora’, which has
provided activist environmental governance of policies and projects in Myanmar (Simpson 2013a).
The inclusive domain of the term ‘diaspora’ has, at times, been stretched to render it almost
meaningless, with academic literature on, for example, liberal or queer diaspora leading Brubaker to
argue that ‘[i]f everyone is diasporic, then no one is distinctively so’ (2005: 3). Myanmar’s expatriate
38
activists, however, fulfil not only traditional aspects of the term based on dislocation or ‘the dispersal
of a people from [their] original homeland’ (Butler 2001: 189), but also what Sökefeld argues are
‘imagined transnational communities’ with a ‘transnationally dispersed collectivity that distinguishes
itself by clear self‐imaginations as community’ (2006: 267). His focus on social movement theory and
forms of mobilisation dovetails with the concept of an activist diasporic community. This concept,
deriving as it does from a largely progressive and democratic activist community also avoids the
pitfalls that afflict some diasporic communities, such as a lack of trans‐ethnic solidarity and gender
awareness (Anthias 1998). Despite friction existing between some ethnic communities of Myanmar,
which may be replicated in exile, this friction is largely absent in the environmental activist
communities examined here who have made significant attempts to develop multi‐ethnic
collaboration for both strategic and ideological reasons. An additional stimulus to cooperation has
been the geographic reach of both the Shwe Gas Pipeline and the Salween Dams, which cross several
ethnic states and regions, precipitating a high level of cross‐ethnic cooperation in the development of
the campaigns. This unprecedented collaboration is the first defining characteristic of an activist
diaspora.
The second characteristic of an activist diaspora is that it actively establishes linkages and provides
specialist knowledge and otherwise unavailable expertise to broader campaign networks or
coalitions in foreign or ‘outsider’ communities, which contrasts with the often isolationist approach
of other members of diasporic communities. The importance of exiled activists to the outside groups
lies in their specific linguistic and cultural knowledge together with a local political understanding,
often sharpened by intense personal experiences, which outsiders, in this case from the North or
Thailand, are unlikely ever to acquire or fully comprehend. This ‘insider’ knowledge of Myanmar
exiles allows them to undertake covert research back in Myanmar proper that would otherwise be
unachievable and to provide the expertise to outside or transnational civil society groups that is
inaccessible to other activists. In this way the activist diaspora can publicise and highlight issues of
particular concern to their communities, drawing the attention of outsiders to their campaigns.
The third aspect of an activist diaspora is that contributing expertise to broader campaigns and
engaging with activists outside its community plays an important role in bolstering the confidence
and skills, including English language proficiency, of exiles who may otherwise feel isolated in a
foreign country. The delicate balance of emotions that exists in exile communities between ‘hope
[and] resistance’ on the one hand and ‘helplessness, suffering and apathy’ on the other suggests that
those who establish strong links both to their own diasporic community and the outsider community
are those most likely to adapt successfully to their new lives (Mavroudi 2008: 70). The networks
within Myanmar’s activist diaspora have facilitated linkages and communication with other
transnational activists, based predominantly in Thailand, that have successfully conveyed their
campaigns, on both cross‐border energy projects and democratisation in Myanmar, to a more
spatially dispersed transnational audience (Simpson 2013b).
Activism over the Shwe Gas Pipeline
Until recently most activism over the Shwe Gas Pipeline Project, which is to transport gas from
Rakhine State to Yunnan Province in China, was undertaken by outside activists, led by the Shwe Gas
Movement (SGM) and Arakan Oil Watch (AOW) in Chiang Mai. As under most authoritarian regimes,
39
political activism in Myanmar took unconventional forms so, while there were no domestic NGOs
established to challenge the Shwe Project directly, concerned youth channelled their energy through
alternative organisational structures. In 2004 Thu Rein, a student at Sittwe University in the state
capital, set up the Association of University Stipends and Social Affairs Rakhine, a student body
nominally established to represent student interests. As the details of the Shwe Project gradually
emerged the Association became a focal point for related debate and discussion. As well as holding
covert gatherings on the topic they contacted exiled organisations, such as AOW and SGM in
Thailand, to gather more information. Their activities were eventually discovered by military
intelligence and in 2009 eleven Association student members were arrested, receiving sentences of
up to six years in prison with three years each for two illegal activities: ‘contacting unlawful [e.g.
exiled] associations’ and ‘illegal border crossings’, into Thailand or India.9 These young students
were taken to prisons in other states and regions – some as far away as Kachin State at the other end
of the country – which made it difficult for old or poor relatives to visit. Although the easing of
security tensions under the new government meant that most of the group were released in a
January 2012 amnesty, four remained in jail.10 Thu Rein managed to evade arrest and fled to
Thailand in 2010, eventually becoming the Campaign Coordinator of AOW.
Restrictions on these domestic political activities began to lift in late 2011. In October 2011 Energy
Minister U Than Htay confirmed in a parliamentary speech that 80 per cent of the Shwe gas was to
be exported to China with much of the rest to be used by factories in central Myanmar owned by
companies that were known to be close to the military. In response to this statement and the easing
of political restrictions the local campaign became more open and visible. One component of the
campaign was the writing of letters to the provincial governments of both Rakhine and Shan states –
the two ethnic states that the pipeline traversed – making what could be considered procedural
complaints about the pipeline construction such as infringing on farmers’ land, lack of compensation
and destruction of roads.11
A more confrontational, substantive and dissenting argument in the campaign, which was informed
by concepts of natural resource rights, was the demand that the gas be used to provide 24‐hour
electricity to Rakhine State before any gas was exported. Rakhine State was one of Myanmar’s
poorest, with the lowest per capita electricity usage in the country according to the state‐run media.
The emerging permissive political atmosphere convinced local activists that it was possible to make
this sort of demand openly for the first time. Across the state t‐shirts, posters, stickers and calendars
appeared bearing the message ‘24 Hours of Electricity Now. We Have the Right to Use Our Gas’
(Mizzima 2012).
The demand for 24‐hour electricity resonated with the more formalised ethnic political parties in
Rakhine State, the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), which participated in the 2010
elections and had parliamentarians in the national parliament, and the ALD, which boycotted the
2010 elections but agreed to register as a party in late 2011 along with the NLD.12 Both parties
9 Thu Rein, interview with author, Chiang Mai, Thailand, 11 February 2012.
10 Phyo Phyo (pseudonym), interview with author, Yangon, Myanmar, 18 February 2012.
11 Patrick (pseudonym), interview with author, Chiang Mai, Thailand, 13 February 2012.
12 Soon after the ALD decided to participate in the elections the plainclothes security personnel who had been posted outside the
40
adopted a less confrontational approach than activists, however, and saw potential developmental
benefits from the pipeline projects, with the Secretary of the RNDP, Oo Hla Saw, noting that they
were much less socially and environmentally damaging than the Myitsone Dam in Kachin State.13
Indeed he ‘welcomed’ foreign direct investment in Rakhine State although preferring US/EU over
Chinese investment due to ‘greater transparency and respect for international norms’. While Oo Hla
Saw felt that they were unable to stop the project anyway the RNDP argued in parliament that the 20
per cent of gas allocated to Myanmar should be used for development in Rakhine State, setting up a
‘24‐hour Electricity Committee’ to pursue this objective. The ALD Secretary, Aye Tha Aung, voiced
similar opinions from outside the parliamentary system, but argued that more public participation
was necessary in the decision making process and that Rakhine State ‘received nothing’ under the
existing contracts. All technical labour was brought in from China and many of the manual labourers
were brought in from central Myanmar.14 Local campaigners were now very openly arguing for overt
politicisation of the gas in favour of Rakhine State, with activists arguing for it all to be kept in the
state rather than being sold to China in international energy markets.
Conclusion
Myanmar’s activist diaspora has skills and international networks that could be used effectively to
bolster the growth and efficacy of domestic ‘inside’ activism. Rapid changes in the domestic political
and economic environment, however, poses challenges for activists based ‘outside’ to keep up with
developments and remain relevant. As well as the Shwe Pipeline coming into commercial operation
in the second half of 2013 there is likely to be an explosion of energy and natural resource projects
over the next few years that have the potential to cause significant social and environmental
displocation throughout Myanmar. Civil society can contribute to the environmental governance of
these projects not only by bringing an important alternative viewpoint but, in the case of Myanmar,
inside activists and those with international experience can also provide skills and expertise that are
in desperately short supply in the Myanmar government and its civil service.
References
Anthias, F. 1998. ‘Evaluating ‘diaspora’: Beyond ethnicity.’ Sociology, 32(3): 557‐80.
Brubaker, R. 2005. ‘The ‘diaspora’ diaspora.’ Ethnic and Racial Studies, 28(1): 1‐19.
Butler, K. D. 2001. ‘Defining diaspora, refining a discourse.’ Diaspora, 10(2): 189‐219.
Mavroudi, E. 2008. ‘Palestinians in diaspora, empowerment and informal political space.’ Political
Geography. January, 27(1): 1‐138.
Mizzima. 8 February 2012. ‘PTT ready to expand its Burma oil business’.
http://www.mizzima.com/business/6558‐ptt‐ready‐to‐expand‐its‐burma‐oil‐business.html.
secretary’s house for over two decades were removed. Aye Tha Aung, interview with author (translated from Arakanese by Zaw Myat
Lin), Yangon, Myanmar, 20 January 2012.
13 Oo Hla Saw, interview with author, Yangon, Myanmar, 20 January 2012.
14 Aye Tha Aung, interview with author (translated from Arakanese by Zaw Myat Lin), Yangon, Myanmar, 20 January 2012.
41
Accessed:12 February 2012.
Simpson, A. 2013a. ‘Challenging hydropower development in Myanmar (Burma): Cross‐border
activism under a regime in transition.’ Pacific Review. May, 26(2).
‐‐‐‐‐‐ 2013b. Energy, Governance and Security in Thailand and Myanmar (Burma): A Critical Approach
to Environmental Politics in the South. Farnham: Ashgate, forthcoming.
Sökefeld, M. 2006. ‘Mobilizing in transnational space: A social movement approach to the formation
of diaspora.’ Global Networks, 6(3): 265–84.
South, A. 2004. ‘Political transition in Myanmar: A new model for democratization.’ Contemporary
Southeast Asia, 26(2): 233–55.
42
Amending Constitution: Focal Point of Myanmar’s Political Development in 2013
Wang Zichang
School of International Studies, Jinan University
On Political Development
Here the political developments means that, first, public sources are distributed fairer than before,
and second, powers are obtained and operated according rules more than before; the second criteria
must be obedient to the first criteria; One country’s political developments are the results of the
interactions among the relative political powers.
Why should we study Myanmar’s political development?
It can provide us a framework to comprehend, judge and forecast Myanmar’s situation
How to analyze Myanmar’s political development?
It need us focus on the interactions among the various political powers instead of just one political
leader’s aspiration and action.
Focal Points of Myanmar’s Political Development in 2013
First, amending the 2008 constitution for Aung San Suu Kyi’s presidential dream
In the period of one or two years afterwards, amending the 2008 constitution’s request for
presidential qualification will be a focal point in the Myanmar’s political development. This because
that Aung San Suu Kyi want to race for the Myanmar’s president in 2015. According Myanmar’s 2008
constitution,Aung San Suu Kyi cannot be elected as Myanmar’s president because she married an
Englishman, and her two sons are English. But Aung San Suu Kyi15 has expressed her aspiration
several times that she want to race for Myanmar’s president in 2015. If she wants to realize her
presidential dream, she must mobilize enough support to amend the 2008 constitution.
According the present observation,AungSan Suu Kyi can get enough votes if she was admitted to
race for the 2015 presidential election. In the long past period, Aung San suu kyi and the National
League for Democracy (NLD) that she led struggled arduously and persistently with the junta for
Myanmar’s democracy. This wined Aung San Suu Kyi a coin of Myanmar’s democracy and common
people’s support. They support her to race Myanmar’s next president to lead Myanmar after 2015.
15 Chapter III, Article 59 (f), of the Constitution states: “He himself [the president or vice president], one of his parents, his spouse, one of
his legitimate children or their spouses shall not owe allegiance to a foreign power, nor be the subject of a foreign power or the citizen of a foreign country. They shall not be persons entitled to enjoy the rights and privileges of a subject of a foreign government or citizen of a foreign country.”
43
Here it should point that though NLD support Aung San Suu Kyi’s aspiration to be president, they
didn’t take the actions that they used to, such parade on the street. Instead, they take legal actions
to show their support, such as to participate in the committee of amending constitution of
parliament, to take part in the international symposium on amending constitution. At same time,
Aung San Suu Kyi also seeking the military’s support by expressing clearly her points about armed
forces in the future political structure.
About amending constitution, the latest expression of Aung San Suu Kyi is that she will first lead the
NLD participate the parliamentary election, if NLD won the majority, then she and NLD promote to
amend the constitution so that she can be elected as the next president by parliament.
To the request of amending constitution of Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD, the ruling party leaders
responded differently. Aung Min responded positively. He said he support ASSK and NLD demand.
Htay Oo, a vice chairman of USDP, responded negatively. He said that there is not plan now to amend
the constitution. Thein Sein, the president responded mildly, he said it will be determined by people
and by the parliament. From their interaction, it can be judged that the constitution cannot be
amended this year.
Second, amending the 2008 constitution to satisfy the minority peoples’ demand
According the law, the central government want incorporate the local armed forces of minority
(LAFM) into the Board Guard forces. The LAFM felt that the treatment stipulated by the law were not
satisfactory and refused the requirement of central government. Then the central government
attacked them.
This time the central government takes the “carrot and stick” strategy. At the same time the attack
was fighting, the central government also established two committees‐‐‐‐Union Peace Making
Committee and the Union Peace Working Committee‐‐‐ to seek end the conflicts peacefully. In 2012,
the central government has signed peace agreement with six LAFMs. The one that is still fighting
with the central government is Kachin Independence Organization (KIO). The reason of continuing
conflicts is that the two sides cannot agree on the preconditions to cease fire.
The leaders of KIO point that the main reason of the present conflicts is the central government
betrayed the 1947 Panglong agreements. They put forward that it should first resolve the problems
of status and rights of the minority peoples in the federalist government and then negotiate the
peace agreement. The central government insists that it should cease fire first and then negotiate
the plans of political settlement.
It can be concludes from the interactions between the central government and LAFMs that the focal
points of the conflicts are the distribution of the rights. The KIO want the high autonomy that
stipulated by the 1947 Panglong agreements. Otherwise, the central government did not empower
the autonomy the minority wanted. The sustained conflicts showed us once again that the criteria of
fair distribution of rights must be emphasized in the political developments of one country. The
criteria of normalization gaining and operation of power must be obedient to the former criteria.
Otherwise, the results may be armed conflicts in larger scale and more efficient slaughters.
44
Seemed understanding this, the central government unilaterally announced that It will stop attack
and seek to negotiate the cease fire in January 2013. 28 may the two sides will hold peace talk in
Magweal Hall in Myitkyina Township with the participation of representatives of China and the UN.
Though the interactions between the central government and KIO have not promoted the
normalization of the power operation‐‐‐‐ promoting fair distribution by the present constitution and
parliament, the struggle of KIO for fair right distribution is still one very important part of Myanmar’s
political development.
The key to resolve this problem is the honesty and measures of the central government. That is
whether the central government want amend the 2008 constitution according the 1947 Panglong
agreements to meet the autonomy of the Kachin and other minority peoples.
45
Cooperation and Competition between U.S. and Japan’s Policy towards Myanmar
Bi Shihong
School of International Studies, Yunnan University
After the first general election in 20 years held in January 2010, an elected government took place of
the military junta in March. On April 1, 2012, Myanmar opposition party, the National League for
Democracy (NLD), won the by‐elections and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi was elected Member of
Parliament with an overwhelming majority of votes. A series of changes of Myanmar political
situation brought hopes for this country’s stability and development, broadened space for Myanmar
diplomacy and provided opportunities for U.S. and Japan to improve their relations with Myanmar.
U.S. and Japanese dignitaries visited Myanmar continuously, launching the efficient and pragmatic
dialogue and cooperation with Myanmar’s new government. Cooperation and competition between
U.S. and Japan’s policy towards Myanmar will undoubtedly affect Myanmar’s domestic and foreign
affairs in many aspects. Reviewing U.S. and Japan’s policies towards Myanmar, this paper will discuss
cooperation and competition between U.S. and Japan, and its influences on China as well.
Since the Obama administration took office, the government emphasized Southeast Asia as its
strategic priority, declaring “Return to Southeast Asia”, enhancing cooperation with ASEAN countries,
proposing a new mechanism of “Lower Mekong Initiative” (LMI), and taking adjustment of its policy
towards Myanmar into account. U.S. proactive flexible engagement policy towards Myanmar in
certain sense is an inevitable result of the adjustment of U.S. global strategy, even an inevitable
choice of U.S. “Return to Southeast Asia” strategy. From a micro view, U.S. proactive flexible
engagement policy towards Myanmar was based on U.S. reflection on inefficient “sanction and
isolation” policy and its judgment of Myanmar’s internal and external situation. Since 2009, U.S.
policy towards Myanmar has shifted from the long‐term “sanction and isolation” to the two‐way
“pragmatic engagement” which means simultaneous diplomatic engagement and sanction, and U.S.
continuously showed its willingness to improve its relation with Myanmar, then put it into practice.
During Hilary’s visit to Myanmar in early December, 2011, Hilary particularly invited Myanmar to join
LMI cooperation mechanism as a diplomatic observer. Hilary’s visit to Myanmar opened a new page
for U.S.‐Myanmar relations, and it was an important part of “return to Southeast Asia” strategy. In
November 19th 2012, Obama, the first U.S. president who visited Myanmar, met Thein Sein and Aung
San Suu Kyi in Yangon, and declared that U.S. would provide $170 million financial aid to Myanmar.
The significance of Obama’s six‐hour visit to Myanmar was more symbolic than practical, and was
regarded as recognition for the abolition of military governance and encouragement for the future.
U.S. needed Myanmar as its strategic pivot of “Return to Southeast Asia” by which U.S. wanted to
impair China’s increasing influences in Southeast Asia. The Obama administration attempted to grasp
the chance that Myanmar was undertaking a comprehensive reform and trying to get out of the
international isolation, hoping to catalyze peaceful evolution of authoritarian regimes in East Asia by
Myanmar’s comprehensive reform and the influence of “Arab Spring”.
46
Japan was greatly aware of Myanmar’s fertility, the potential huge market and business opportunities
of more than 50 million people. For Japan, the sea routes in Southeast Asia were the lifeline through
which Japan could enter into the Pacific. From the long‐term strategic point of view, Japan’s
competing dominance over Myanmar’s diplomacy and its abundant resources with China is very
important to maintain its maritime lifeline. In order to maintain its influences in Southeast Asian
especially in Myanmar and prevent the infiltration of China’s influences, Japanese government
continues to spread the “theory of Chinese threat to the south” , therefore, Myanmar is increasing
fears and concerns that China will force to the south someday.
Japan’s policies towards Myanmar were the following: taking financial aid as a bait to impel dialogues
between Myanmar’s government and opposition parties and reconciliation of ethnic minorities;
helping Myanmar’s transition towards market economy system; keeping the coordination with
European countries and U.S.; paying continuous attention to the situation of human rights in
Myanmar. When the people in Myanmar had enough food and clothing, they would ask the military
junta to take reform and transfer more power to them. When it became true, Myanmar could be a
democratic country as Japan had expected. Japan always implemented “constructive interference”
policy towards Myanmar and played a very important role in guiding Myanmar’s road to
market‐oriented economy. Japan kept a certain distance with European countries and the States, had
the close ties with Myanmar government, and induced Myanmar to keep a certain distance with
China by “the carrot rather than the big stick” policy. Japan attempted to affect Myanmar’s process
of democratization and direction of economic reform by the means of economic and technical
assistance, the exchange of policies and dialogues, human resource development, trade cooperation
and direct investment and so on.
Affected by the Obama administration’s “Return to Southeast Asia” and “proactive flexible
engagement”, Japanese government included Southeast Asia into “value‐oriented diplomacy” system,
trying to enlarge the camp of containing China and taking frequent diplomatic offensive in Southeast
Asia. Japan wanted to develop further relations with Myanmar via the transition from the military
junta to the elected government, realizing the promise made by the previous Japanese leaders,
paying attention to the abundant human resources and markets to seek the joint development of
mineral resources such as natural gas and rare earth. As for economic cooperation with Myanmar,
Japan played a more active role, trying to support the construction of democratization in Myanmar
via the enhanced economic relation and contain China’s influences in Myanmar by signing and
implementing the investment agreements to strengthen financial assistance for Myanmar.
Both U.S. and Japan consider Myanmar’s geopolitics location is of great importance. Myanmar is
located in the central area of the contiguous plates of East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia, and it
is the most convenient channel through which China advances south into the Indian Ocean, so U.S.
and Japan naturally compete with China for their influences in Myanmar. Myanmar’s political elites
also think the strategic location of Myanmar between China and India is more important than its
abundant natural resources. Both U.S. and Japan realize that it is necessary to further improve their
relations with Myanmar to balance the continuously developed bilateral relation between China and
Myanmar. Though it will be a long period for U.S. to lift its sanctions on Myanmar completely, U.S.
will finally do this to further enhance its influences in Myanmar and even the whole Asian‐Pacific
region. Meanwhile, Japan coordinates closely with U.S. “return to Southeast Asia” strategy when
47
improving its relations with Myanmar. Thus, when considering the development of their relations
with Myanmar, U.S. and Japan pay great attention to policy coordination and close cooperation
between them in order to promote the political and economic reform in Myanmar.
Japan always remains close interactions with U.S. in its important diplomatic activities because
U.S.‐Japan Alliance is the foot stone of Japan’s diplomacy, but it is obvious that U.S. can’t fully
understand Myanmar’s importance to Japan. In order to maintain the special Japan‐Myanmar
relations and Japan’s interests in Myanmar, Japan not only put pressure on Myanmar but also kept
close relations during the military junta. As for sanctions on Myanmar, Japan showed a different and
even double‐faced stand from U.S., which indicated Japan’s opportunism and pragmatism.
For Japan, it did not prepare enough for U.S. “return to Southeast Asia”, LMI and the
rapidly‐developed U.S.‐Myanmar closer relations, and felt nervous because this situation was not the
same as it had expected‐to contain China by strengthening U.S.‐Japan alliance. Japan’s elaboration of
its policy towards Myanmar was a little inferior to U.S. “return to Southeast Asia” strategy, and
Japan‐Myanmar cooperation space was extruded by U.S. In recent years, U.S. paid more attention to
Myanmar, so Japan worried about its influences on Myanmar and enhanced its cooperation with
Myanmar to ensure its leading position in this region.
In other words, U.S. mighty interference would weaken Japan’s influences on Myanmar and the
Southeast Asia, and the leading position in Southeast Asia pursued by U.S. and Japan were
contradictory. Both U.S. “proactive flexible engagement” and Japan’s “constructive interference”
aimed at enlarging their influences on Myanmar, which would cause more competition between
these two countries. In recent years, with the different strategic consideration, the strategic interests
of U.S. and Japan in this region were overlapped and the competition and cooperation between
these two countries occurred repeatedly. Both U.S. comeback and Japan’s increased stake to gain
superiority were to enhance its influences on Myanmar. U.S. and Japan would keep close cooperation
to improve their relations with Myanmar and the competition for their influences on Myanmar
would be inevitable, which would objectively enlarge Myanmar’s diplomatic space and improve
Myanmar’s relations with western countries.
In conclusion, Myanmar is very important for China in geopolitics, border security and energy
security and China also has much financial interests in Myanmar. In recent years, Myanmar
implemented “multi‐faceted diplomacy” and “the balance of power”, developing relations with
neighboring countries such as China and India as well as improving relations with the western
countries including U.S. and Japan. China hopes to see a stable and prosperous Myanmar, so there
would be a certain space for China, Japan and U.S. to cooperate diplomatically with some common
interests in issues related Myanmar. Facing U.S. and Japan’s recent activities, China should remain
conscious and vigilant. “Return to Southeast Asia” and “proactive flexible engagement” of the
Obama administration and Japan’s “value‐oriented diplomacy” in Southeast Asia region and close
economic relation with Myanmar aim at China clearly, planning to contain China’s influences in
strategic aspect. Besides, U.S. and Japan took some other measures in politics, diplomacy, and
economy, military and social culture to contain China. U.S. and Japan’s improved relations with
Myanmar will not only inevitably play a role in containing China but also interfere with China’s
strategic layout in Southeast Asia.
48
The European Union and Future Development of Myanmar
Yang Baoyun
School of International Studies, Peking University
Due to historical factors and actual demands, some European powers pay an extra attention to
Myanmar. With the deepening of the European integration process, the European Union (EU) applies
also a more unified policy towards Myanmar focused on “Values diplomacy” which is the basis of the
EU policy on this country. With the reform of Myanmar’s new government, EU has also adjusted its
policy. At same time, Myanmar’s government needs the help and aids from EU. A benign interaction
between European Union and Myanmar has preliminary established, and this new relationship will
exert some influences in the future development of Myanmar.
The EU Policy to Myanmar’s Military Junta
During the Myanmar’s military junta period, issues such as human rights and freedom were the EU’s
most important obstacles in the relations with this country. Responding to the Burmese junta’s
repression of pro‐democracy activists, the EU governments agreed to impose even tougher sanctions
against Rangoon. The decision extended the existing the EU ban on granting visas to more than 200
people, including not just members of the government but also “those who profit from it.” The EU
freeze on assets of Myanmar’s nationals was also extended to cover more people, including generals,
ministers, and people working in the tourism industry and in state enterprises. It suspended
preferential trade concessions for the country several years ago. At same time, the EU banned the
sale of arms to Myanmar.
In the process to impose the values diplomacy on Myanmar, the EU has on the one hand applied
sanctions on Myanmar for express its dissatisfaction with the human rights situation in the country;
on the other hand, promoted its values in Myanmar by a variety of channels, including the
establishment of the non‐governmental organizations and funding the local NGO existed.
The EU’s policy vis‐à‐vis to Myanmar has given the Myanmar’s military government a great deal of
pressure.
At this period, the relation between EU and Myanmar even had a great effect on the relations
EU‐ASEAN. After Myanmar’s admission to ASEAN on 1997, and in the process of institutional
development of Asia‐Europe meeting where ASEAN and the European Union are the main problem
of Myanmar even became one of the issues in the relationship between two sides. Since then, the
ASEAN‐EU bi‐regional dialogue went into a process of atrophy.
Adjustment of the EU Policy towards Myanmar
Since the elections in Myanmar, the new Government introduced quickly the political and social
49
reforms and carried out an opening policy; the European Union has watched and supported the
remarkable process of reform in Myanmar; welcome the developments towards democracy, a strong
Parliament, freedom of expression, and the government’s efforts against corruption, as well as the
efforts towards the release of remaining political prisoners.
As the EU is conscious that there are still significant challenges to be addressed in its relations with
Myanmar, it set up the political conditions: First is to consolidate the democratic achievements so far
and to move further towards full transition; second to unconditionally release the remaining political
prisoners, while noting with satisfaction the creation of a review mechanism and looking forward to
the early completion of its work; third to strengthen human rights and the rule of law including
through enhanced cooperation with the UN, in particular to ensure the protection of all minorities;
fourth to deal with inter‐communal violence; fifth to achieve sustainable peace in Myanmar by
addressing long‐standing differences in an inclusive way, and in particular calling for an end of
hostilities in Kachin State; sixth to adopt urgent action to deal with humanitarian risks for all
displaced people in the Rakhine State.
The economic conditions have been set up as following: First is to promote inclusive and sustainable
growth, as well as good governance to achieve the Millennium Development Goals in line with the
government’s plans; second to ensure that reforms are translated to economic benefits for ordinary
people; third to encourage responsible trade and investment while promoting transparency and
environmental protection.
In the international affairs there are also the principles to be respected: Myanmar has to be an active
and respected member of the international community, by adhering to international agreements,
including in relation to human rights, land mines, non‐proliferation and disarmament, etc.
With adjustment of its policy towards Myanmar, the EU stands ready to cooperate with Naypyidaw.
The EU is willing to open a new chapter in its relations with Myanmar building a lasting partnership
and to promote closer engagement with the country as a whole. The Council invites the High
Representative/Vice President to discuss and propose a comprehensive framework with priorities for
the EU’s policy and support to the ongoing reforms for the next three years to prepare election of
2015 and encourages relevant authorities in Member States and the EU institutions to proceed
without delay to joint programming of development aid for Myanmar while respecting the existing
harmonization efforts.
The EU plans to strengthen relations with Myanmar’s parliament by studying the possibility of
assisting the reform of the police service in Myanmar, in partnership with all appropriate
stakeholders, in particular with the country’s Parliament.
The EU is ready to cooperate with Myanmar for democratization and human rights by sharing the
recent experience on political transition and democratization in some of its Member States and
exploring ways to promote a regular human rights dialogue with Naypyidaw.
For economic cooperation the EU will maintain increased levels of development assistance, in
coordination with other donors and explore the feasibility of a bilateral investment agreement. But
the EU will still keep the embargo on arms. In response to the changes that have taken place and in
50
the expectation that they will continue, the Council has decided to lift all sanctions with the
exception of the embargo on arms which will remain in place.
The main factors improving EU’s policy change is the reform of Myanmar are following: First, the
achievements of social and political reforms and carried out an opening policy to the world adopted
by new Government of Myanmar introduced EU to adjust its policy towards Myanmar to promote
father reform in this country. Secondly, the EU realize the unavailability of sanctions policy. In fact,
for over 14 years EU sanctions have achieved little to nothing in terms of forcing Myanmar’s military
dictatorship to open up, as an example, Piero Fassino, EU Special Envoy for Myanmar, has been
unable for long time to get permission to visit the country since his appointment in late 2007. Third,
for reasons of economic interests. The EU is facing many challenges, such as the European debt crisis
and weak economic development, and its economic power has declined. Myanmar is an important
market for EU. Some big companies of the EU member countries keep an eye on potential future
developments in Myanmar, hoping to gain an interest in this market.
However, there are also some different voices on the adjustment of policy towards Myanmar. For
example the European Burma Network, a collective of advocacy and human rights groups has
released a joint statement urging the European Union to delay lifting remaining sanctions on
Myanmar ahead of a review on April 22, 2013. “We are concerned that the premature lifting of EU
sanctions will undermine the reform process in Myanmar, and could even encourage further serious
human rights abuses,” said the statement issued by Mark Farmaner, director of Burma Campaign UK,
on March 26, 2013. Some other criticized that the EU Foreign Ministers have decided to trust Thein
Sein, and throw everything they have behind him. There are no caveats or reservations—instead it’s
a wholehearted endorsement of a man whom the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human
rights in Myanmar twice named for personally ordering human rights abuses.
The Myanmar Government’s Response
Myanmar’s government shows welcome attitude to the new policy of EU. It’s president Thein Sein
had visited EU and requested that the remaining EU sanctions be lifted during his European visit. He
pointed out:”What we lack is capital and modern technologies ... all these are because of the
economic sanctions for the last 20 years”.
Myanmar has shown clearly that Myanmar has high expectations of EU’s aids. In 2012 the European
Commission allocated €18.5 million to address the basic humanitarian needs of over one million
vulnerable people in Myanmar affected by conflict, natural disasters or ethnic tensions, particularly
along the eastern border with Thailand, in Kachin, Chin and in Rakhine State. ECHO has provided €5
million of humanitarian aid to Kachin state, and €8 million to Rakhine state in 2012. EU’s aids eased
the burden of Myanmar’s government to a certain extent.
In order to respond to the demands of release of political prisoners, Myanmar’s president has
pardoned 93 prisoners, including at least 59 political detainees, a day after the European Union lifted
sanctions. “Amnesties almost always coincide with international events. Today’s amnesty coincides
with the lifting of EU sanctions,” said Ko Ko Gyi, who was released from jail in 2012.
Taking conscience of role of European big companies on the EU’s policy vis‐à‐vis to Myanmar, the
51
government of Naypyidaw will pay high attention to them in future,and increase its relationship with
the big European enterprises, in particular the links with some transnational holding companies to
obtain more investment and assistance from EU.
Conclusion
The European Union had taken the new policy characterized by the links between the values and
economic assistance in Myanmar, to encourage the government of this country to continue to reform
and opening up, and at the same time, the EU tries use economic interests to prevent the turn back
of Myanmar’s reform.
The European Union and Myanmar has established a preliminary benign interaction
It can be expected, as long as the Myanmar government continues to implement the reform and
opening up policy, the EU will continue to make a positive response, so that bilateral relations in
different fields, such as political, social, economic, cultural and other will maintain a stable
development.
52
Human Security in Myanmar: Critical Hurdles
Pavin Chachavalpongpun, PhD
Associate Professor
Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University
[email protected]‐u.ac.jp
Domestic Discourse of “Security”
Human security has been a relatively alien concept due to the overwhelming concentration on the
security of nation‐state. The making of the “security” discourse in Myanmar is arbitrary. It is
arbitrary because it has been shaped and reshaped according to the changing power interests of the
Myanmar elite. The state becomes equivalent to the nation. Hence, the security of the nation is
equal the regime security. Brendan Howe and Suyoun Jang explain this through the actor‐centric
security paradigm.16 In this paradigm, security is an essential component of absolute sovereignty
and the cornerstone of national interest. It places the security of the nation‐state at the centre of
analysis. From this viewpoint, state is forever preoccupied with the need to protect national
sovereignty and territorial integrity from foreign and domestic enemies, at the same time as it
defends itself from all kinds of threats to its interest. Externally, wars are unavoidable. Internally,
political stability and social order is imperative. The priority has been to ensure security with the
military being assigned a primary role in the safeguarding of the nation‐state.
In Myanmar’s case, a number of factors are responsible for the existence of state‐centric of security.
From the bitter memory of being colonised by the British, the civil war throughout the Cold War, to
the unending ethnic insurgencies, the security discourse nominated the state as the most important
institution capable of defending the country. This explains why the military rule in Myanmar had
endured, effectively because the junta claimed to protect national security; yet, what exactly they
protected remained obscured.17
Western Advocacy: Self‐serving?
Maung Zarni crafts a useful framework in exploring the relationship between human security in
Myanmar and Western advocacy. He argues that there are three discourses of “security” adopted by
16 Brendan M. Howe and Suyoun Jang,”Human Security and Development: Divergent Approaches to Burma/Myanmar”, Pacific Focus, Vol.
XXVIII, No. 1 (April 2003), pp. 123.
17 For elaborate details, see, Tin Maung Maung Than, “Myanmar: Preoccupation with Regime Survival, National Unity and Stability”, Asian
Security Practice: Material and Ideational Influences, Muthiah Alagappa, ed., (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1998), pp.390‐416. See
also, Mary P. Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2003).
53
the West. These are: national security, global security and human security.18 Whereas the first two
discourses have gained much attention from Western governments primarily because of their
interests involved, the last has often been ignored even when they promoted the awareness of
human rights in Myanmar. Western advocacy on security in Myanmar has heavily focused on the
outside interests in the endurance of the regime and the way in which such regime has engendered
the impact on global security. Zarni emphasises, “The third—human—or people‐centred–security
trails as a distant third in Western policy making. This reality is opposed to public discussions, where
the omnipresent rhetoric of human rights masks its diminished status”.19
As the Cold War came to an end, what also came was the shift of the West’s advocacy policy toward
political situation in Myanmar. The brutal crackdown on pro‐democracy protesters in August 1988
and the rejection of the election result in 1990 which saw the triumph of Suu Kyi’s National League
for Democracy (NLD) partly influenced the change in the West’s position toward Myanmar’s human
rights situation. Yet, the change was merely cosmetic. The emergence of Suu Kyi as a democratic
icon fighting for democracy and the protection of human rights perfectly served as the reference
point in the new advocacy policy of the West. But in reality, the West invested tremendously in
safeguarding its core interests in the Middle East and North Africa. Strategically, the United States
was willing to enter into wars in the Middle East so as to protect those interests, be they political or
economic. Meanwhile, in 2005, the United States referred to Burma/Myanmar as “outpost of
tyranny”. Despite being labelled as enemy of democracy, Myanmar has never been perceived as the
United States’ core interest.
As part of readjusting its position, the American government implemented a liberal Western
advocacy to protest against the appalling human security situation in Myanmar. This liberal Western
advocacy was made possible because Myanmar was one of the places where the West felt it could
afford to live out its liberal values, as it was pursuing its core interests elsewhere. In other words,
advocacy of human security was allowed to dominate Myanmar policy discussions and media
coverage because other Western interests in Myanmar were not deemed very important.20 In the
words of Michael Backman, “Burma is not strategically important to the United States, so it is a ‘free
kick’ politically to take a high‐handed approach to the issue. It makes for good headlines and helps
to pacify the US domestic human rights lobby, regardless of whether the approach is effective or
not”.21 The West then imposed sanctions against the Myanmar regime, realising that the shut‐down
of channels of communication with Myanmar would not affect its overall global strategic interests.
Indeed, sanctions became the hallmark of the West’s Myanmar policy, initially endorsed by Suu Kyi
herself. Sanctions were also justified not only because of the persistent military rule in Myanmar,
but also the terrible human security situation.22 In response, the military regime intensified its 18 Maung Zarni, “Burma/Myanmar: Its Conflicts, Western Advocacy, and Country Impact”, World Peace Foundation, 25 March 2013
<http://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2013/03/25/burmamyanmar‐its‐conflicts‐western‐advocacy‐and‐country‐impact/> (accessed 20
April 2013). 19 Ibid.
20 Ibid.
21 Backman, Michael. 2008. Asia Future Shock: Business Crisis and Opportunity in the Coming Years, (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008)
p. 120.
22 Morten B. Pedersen, Promoting Human Rights in Burma: A Critique of Western Sanctions Policy, (Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield
Publisher, 2008), p.24.
54
repressive policy vis‐à‐vis its own people, creating an even more devastating human insecurity
situation. For a long time, Western sanctions had proven to be futile.
The US Shift of Myanmar Policy
The changes inside Myanmar, at the same time, coincided with US President Barack Obama’s
innovative policy toward Asia—the s0‐called “Asia Pivot”. Once again, the new political landscape in
the region forced the United States to readjust its focus on Myanmar’s regime, rather than the dire
human rights situation inside the country. The new concept of US policy toward Myanmar is now a
pragmatic concept—engaging the regime and encouraging its democratisation with lucrative
investments from the United States supposedly to facilitate the economic opening up after long
years of the country’s economic hardship.23 The engagement with the Thien Sien government is
now a product of the United States’ Asia Pivot in relation to Myanmar. The United States no longer
needs Myanmar dissidents and exile leaders to legitimise the substance of its policy toward
Myanmar. Together with Suu Kyi, the Obama administration has reinvented Myanmar whose old
image as an outpost of tyranny was replaced by a new friendly business partner image. In
responding to the opening up process of Myanmar, Washington has sought to create a comfort zone
for the leaders in Naypyidaw primarily to do business together and at the same time to veer the
country away from the Chinese influence.24 Lifting sanctions, engaging with the Myanmar elite,
paying more attention to Myanmar’s political reconciliation and promoting human rights are now
parts of the new policy package designed to welcome Myanmar’s political transition and to ensure
the US interests in such process.
Apparently, the US admiration of Myanmar’s democratisation and of course its defence of human
rights in the country neatly unveils an ethical standpoint of the Obama administration. But the real
gist of the new upgraded Myanmar policy of the United States has been security‐commerce
centric—being wary of the threats from the old military elite and in the meantime needing to
engage economically with the new regime for the United States’ own benefits. This view of the
realpolitik, or in a more diplomatic term—pragmatism, is indeed dominating the West in terms of its
new approach in dealing with developments in Myanmar. However, pragmatism poses a dilemma
for the West. It needs to be pragmatic to grasp any opportunities which emerge in the process of
transition. But in so doing, its promotion of human rights and the support for human security could
be compromised. Like in the past, the security‐centric view of the West eclipsed its seriousness to
tackle human insecurity issues. Today, while the West finds it is important to remain pragmatic in
managing its relations with Myanmar, its concerns over the lack of human security are belittled. The
fact that the atrocious human security situation still persists today in Myanmar is a testament of the
ineffectiveness of the new approach by the West.
23 U Myint Soe, “Shift in US Policy towards Myanmar”, ASEAN‐US Relations: What are the Talking Points?, edited by Pavin
Chachavalpongpun, ( Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2012), pp.107‐8.
24 See, David I. Steinberg and Hongwei Fan. Modern China‐Myanmar Relations: Dilemmas of Mutual Dependence, (Copenhagen: Nordic
Institute of Asian Studies, 2012).
55
Development of Transport Connectivity in Myanmar and the Prospect for Regional Cooperation
Lei Zhuning
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences
Myanmar stands at the conjunction of Southeast Asia, South Asia and East Asia. Due to its strategic
location, Myanmar plays an irreplaceable role in bridging separate and landlocked countries and
regions together. Hence, regional transport connectivity in a large part hinges on Myanmar’s progress
in this regard.
Confronted by many difficulties such as limited financial resources and technology capabilities,
Myanmar’s transport infrastructure construction since 1988 has been mostly inward‐looking. In
order to fully utilize Myanmar’s comparative advantages and generate economic benefits for
Myanmar and the region at large, it is necessary to deepen multi‐lateral cooperation and make
concerted efforts to promote regional transport connectivity centered on Myanmar.
Improvement of Transport Connectivity in Myanmar
Myanmar has made much progress in the area of transport infrastructure construction since 1988.
However, as constrained by limited resources and economic sanctions, there is still much work to be
done on domestic front and the progress on improving regional connectivity is limited.
1. Progress on Transport Infrastructure Construction
Great achievement has been seen in road construction since 1988. Previously, before 1988, there
were only 13,635 miles of roads maintained by Public Works of the Ministry of Construction. By the
end of 2011, Public Works has extended the road to over 24,000 miles in the entire nation. Particular
effort has been given to the Yangon‐Mandalay expressway and road construction on the western
bank of the Ayeyawady River, which has lagged behind the eastern side in development due to poor
transport conditions.
As to railway, Myanmar has made tremendous progress in railway construction in last two decades.
Before 1988, there were 1,976 miles of railroads in the country25, of which 1,924.75 miles were built
before 1948, and only 51.6 miles were built from 1948 to 1988. Since 1988, construction of railway
has been expedited. By April 2011, 1,048.95 miles more railway had been added to the existing
railway system and the total length of railway has exceeded 3,000 miles. The government plans to
further extend the railway system by a rate of building 250 miles railroads annually26.
From Myanmar government’s point of view, in terms of importance in socio‐economic development,
Yangon‐Mandalay railroad stands first, Mandalay‐Myitkyina railroad comes second,
25 New Light of Myanmar, Oct. 30, 2010 p.1
26 New Light of Myanmar, June 5, 2011 p.1, p.8
56
Yangon‐Mawlamyine‐Ye is third and Yangon‐Pyay is fourth27. In the meantime, mush focus has been
put on construction of railroads to areas formerly not linked with the central part of Myanmar. The
aim is to promote economic development in a regionally balanced way, so as to promote equitable
development of all parts of the country.
Myanmar has also made great progress in the area of air and water transportation since 1988,
although the achievements might not be as conspicuous as those achieved in road and railway
construction.
2. A Similar Pattern Observed on both Road and Railway Construction
Despite of the above‐mentioned achievements, the overall progress on transport connectivity is slow
and Myanmar still has a long way to connect itself with its neighbors.
Although Asia Highways, ASEAN28 Highways and GMS29 Economic Corridor projects have been
stated as government priorities, in reality, road construction is inward‐looking and little progress has
been made on outbound projects. For instance, nearly two third of the Asian Highway routes in
Myanmar are Class III road and nearly one third are still below Class III roads. A similar pattern could
be observed on railway construction, with emphases having been put on domestic front, and little
progress having been made to bridge the missing links with neighboring countries. Major missing
links of TAR30 still exist in Myanmar as it was ten years ago.
Opportunities and Challenges
Deepening regional cooperation on transport connectivity will bring Myanmar and neighboring
countries many benefits.
1. Market Access and Economic Cooperation
Improvement on regional connectivity will provide the countries in the region with easier market
access to the vast regional market. Myanmar’s neighbors‐‐China, India, Bangladesh and other ASEAN
member countries, constitutes a huge market with a total population of over 3 billion.
Regional integration is gaining momentum with the establishment of China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area
and the coming ASEAN Economic Community. Other regional cooperation mechanisms such as GMS,
SAARC31, BIMSTEC32 are also coming along. As a result, regional FDI33 and technology transfer will
increase, together with more job opportunities. As export‐oriented labor‐intensive industries are
phasing out of the coastal areas of China, Myanmar could become a major production center of Asia
considering its competitive labor costs and advantageous location. Moreover, improvement on
transport connectivity will greatly promote the development of logistics and tourism in the region,
and create more jobs in the service sector.
27 New Light of Myanmar, March 15, 2011 p.8
28 ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations
29 GMS: Greater Mekong Sub‐region
30 TAR: Trans‐Asian Railway.
31 SAARC: South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
32 BIMSTEC: Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi‐Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation
33 FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
57
2. Challenges and Difficulties Confronting the Regional Routes thru Myanmar
Financing and technical constraints have become the two most prominent and recurring problems
hampering the construction of regional routes. Besides, each route has its own particular problems.
Taking reference from the GMS transportation and logistics cooperation, exorbitant and
unpredictable transit charges, complex cross‐border procedures and poor condition of transport
infrastructures are usually cited as major obstacles. Problems usually amass at border areas and
security problems constitute a big challenge in and around Myanmar. Lack of mechanisms for sharing
the benefit and cost fairly among the stakeholders is also a problem. In addition, there could be
externalities brought about by improved regional connectivity such as trafficking of people, drugs
and protected wildlife coming with improved transport facilities.
The Way Forward
To promote regional connectivity, it is necessary for stakeholders in the region to deepen multilateral
cooperation and assist Myanmar in transport infrastructure construction.
1.To Strengthen Multi‐lateral Cooperation
In the new era since the democratic government sworn in, Myanmar is returning to its
long‐cherished tradition of neutrality, and it is in Myanmar’s best interests to maintain a delicate
balance of powers. It is critically important for Myanmar to utilize its geographical advantage to
foster regional cooperation, channel all the international and regional resources to domestic
constructive purposes while carefully avoiding becoming a battle ground for cut‐throat geopolitical
struggle and missing the golden opportunity for long overdue development.
For China, a stable, prosperous and open Myanmar is in China’s interests, especially for its landlocked
and underdeveloped Southwest areas. That’s why it is China who first provided platform for
Myanmar‐U.S. dialogue a few years ago. It is also in the interests of other neighboring countries of
Myanmar to see its promising economic potential being full realized.
To improve regional connectivity centered on Myanmar is of great importance for regional
cooperation. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a regional multilateral cooperation mechanism
centered on Myanmar. The mechanism, in the initial stage, should involve all the immediate
stakeholders in the region, particularly Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and China, and should
follow the principle of inclusiveness, open to regional and global stakeholders in the long run.
Some efforts have been made in this regard. In May 2013, India and China jointly proposed the
BCIM34 Economic Corridor initiative following a successful car rally from Kolkata to Kunming via
Bangladesh and Myanmar in February and March 2013. Meanwhile, the U.S.A. is floating the idea of
developing an India‐Pacific Economic Corridor through Bangladesh and Myanmar. Japan is making
plans to construct high speed trains for Myanmar while China, in cooperation of Korea, is considering
setting up factory for producing locomotives for the high speed train. In the future, more concerted
34 The BCIM Regional Cooperation Forum involves Bangladesh, China (Yunnan), India (NER and West Bengal) and Myanmar, which was
started with the Kunming Initiative in 1999, with the aim to “strengthen regional economic cooperation and cultural exchanges and to make the BCIM area the real ‘Suvarnabhumi’ (golden land) as they figure in ancient legends.”
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efforts are needed to provide more assistance in order to further improve regional connectivity.
2. A New Master Plan on Regional Connectivity is in Need
It is necessary to consider the overall situation of regional connectivity, taking into account all the
existing routes and planned or proposed routes. A new master plan for regional cooperation on
transport connectivity should be drawn up with flagship and pilot projects being identified.
3. To Establish Mechanisms for Better Sharing of Benefits and Costs
Transport routes and economic corridors in Myanmar can be regarded as “club goods” for the region
around Myanmar. Improvement of the transport conditions in Myanmar will benefit all the regional
stakeholders. Therefore, a set of benefits and costs sharing mechanisms should be established, and
measures should be taken to remedy the hidden costs in social and environmental areas.
4. To Reduce Non‐Physical Barriers and Enhance Interoperability
Taking reference from the experience of GMS Cross‐border Transport Agreement (CBTA), it is also
recommended that a similar multilateral agreement be reached among Myanmar and its neighbors
to facilitate customs clearance procedures and reduce transport time and costs in the region.
Through implementation of these measures, it is hoped that a seamless regional logistics network be
established eventually, so as to fully realize the potential of infrastructure interconnectivity in the
region, and the benefits of regional cooperation can be reaped and shared among all the countries in
the region.
59
Myanmar’s Political Transformation and New Development of China‐Myanmar Relations
Liu Xuecheng
Senior Fellow
China Institute of International Studies
China and Myanmar are friendly neighbors, sharing the profound “pauk‐phaw” (fraternity) friendship
with cross‐border ethnic peoples living together. They are the first Asian countries that advocated the
five principles of peaceful coexistence as the code of conduct for the state‐to‐state relationship.
Myanmar has adhered to the “One‐China” policy and supported China’s core interests. China has
supported Myanmar’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
Myanmar and China have constructed the strategic corridor of energy and commerce connecting the
landlocked Southwest China to the Indian Ocean. They are the two key stakeholders in the proposed
Four‐State Economic Corridor among China, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and India. They are the
cooperative partners of the Greater Mekong Sub‐regional Cooperation and the four‐state Joint
Patrolling against organized crimes over the Mekong River, greatly contributing to the shipping safety
on the river. China is Myanmar’s largest investor with an investment totaling $12.32 billion in 2010. In
2011, the bilateral trade volume reached $6.5 billion, seeing an annual increase of 46.3 percent.
China’s non‐financial direct investment in Myanmar that year was $460 million, increasing 41.4
percent over that in 2010, making China Myanmar’s second‐largest trading partner behind Thailand.
The ASEAN‐China Free Trade Area (CAFTA) was realized on 1 January 2010 as over 90 per cent of
products classified by ASEAN‐6 and China have been eliminated. The CLMV countries, including
Myanmar, will fully implement the CAFTA on 1 January 2015.
China is happy to see Myanmar emerging from decades of the military rule and diplomatic isolation,
shaking off the Western sanctions by conducting political and economic reforms, and cultivating
diplomatic space of national reconstruction. Under the new civilian government, China‐Myanmar
relations have opened a new page of their traditional friendly relationship. President U Thein Sein
visited China immediately after assuming the presidency in May 2011. The joint statement on
establishing the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership was signed between China and
Myanmar. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with U Wunna Maung Lwin, his counterpart from
Myanmar, at the sidelines of ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting and related meetings held in Brunei
in July 2013. Wang described their bilateral relations by quoting two famous Chinese sayings “time
reveals a person’s heart” and “a friend in need is a friend indeed.” Wang reaffirmed that China will,
as always, adhere to a friendly policy towards Myanmar and support Myanmar to pursue a path of
development that conforms to its conditions and that, such a traditional friendly relationship should
rather be strengthened, not weakened under the new situation. Myanmar’s Foreign Minister U
Wunna Maung Lwin said that Myanmar cherished the traditional friendship with China and thanked
China for having long offered valuable support and assistance. He reaffirmed that “Myanmar is in a
60
period of reform and transition, but we will never change our good‐neighborly and friendly
cooperative relations with China.”
China Supports Myanmar’s Political Transformation
Since the new civilian government was established in March 2011, Myanmar’s political
transformation has experienced the two phases. The first phase could be defined as the one of
political rectification; and it has now ushered in the second phase of political democratization.
With the seven‐step roadmap toward democracy, the new constitution adopted in 2008 came into
force. The elections conducted in November 2010 officially ended the Junta’s rule in Myanmar. The
civilian government was sworn‐in in March 2011. China has strongly supported the Junta’s roadmap
toward democracy, the democratic election in 2010 and the new Government. Chinese official
statements and media reports held positive and supportive positions on political development in
Myanmar. The smooth elections provided an opportunity for the international community to
encourage the new civilian government to move in the direction of greater openness and reform and
commit it to national reconciliation and economic development.
President Thein Sein‐Aung San Suu Kyi meeting on 19 August 2011 was “the first step toward
national reconciliation.” President Thein Sein announced in 2011 that his government would allow
exiles to return home when their offences would be considered leniently. Since then, the new
government has released hundreds of prisoners, including political prisoners. Myanmar government
has formed a National Human Rights Commission to investigate reported abuses in the country. The
15‐member commission of retired civil servants will safeguard citizens’ fundamental rights as
specified in the 2008 constitution. The election law and Party registration bill have been revised to
pave the way for opposition parties to register as legal political parties, including the National League
for Democracy. The New Government has lifted the censorship of the media and the private
newspapers and magazines and the television stations have been published and operated.
The government has started peace talks with armed ethnic groups. The government has also formed
a national peace committee to deal with groups seeking peace talks. The new government has signed
ceasefire agreements with 11 leading ethnic armed groups. The talks with the KIA for a ceasefire
agreement are under way with the support of the international community. Although there have
been conflicts and clashes between the Myanmar military and some armed ethnic groups, the
government has started the process of negotiations with several armed ethnic groups and at least
temporarily shelved the BGF plan.
The second phase is characterized by preparations for the 2015 elections. Suu Kyi and Shwe Mann
have announced the presidential bid, and 11 ethnic parties have decided to create one party under
the name of Federal Union Party, eyeing the 2015 elections. These new political developments have
lifted the certain of political democratization. The key issue is constitutional amendment: Whether
Suu Kyi is qualified to run for the presidency and How to share power and interests between the
Federal government, the local minority authorities within the federal context, and how to deal with
sectarian conflicts between Buddhists and Muslims and other minority communal groups. The
61
international community is watching the interplay of the internal and external political forces
released by the political transformation in Myanmar.
New Development of China‐Myanmar Relations
After the new government was established, Myanmar’s president U Thain Sein visited China and the
two governments signed the joint statement on establishing the Comprehensive Strategic
Cooperative Partnership between China and Myanmar. In June 2013, Chinese State Counsilor Yang
Jiechi visited Myanmar and Called on President U Thein Sein. During his visit, both governments
signed the agreement on implementing the Action Plan of Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation
Partnership and further pushing forward the process of neighborly and friendly cooperation.
With the development of political and social diversity in Myanmar in the process of democratization,
China has adjusted its policy to Myanmar with emphasis of public diplomacy. Some geo‐strategists,
security experts, and policy analysts have distorted this diplomatic move as a China’s effort to
colonize Myanmar or encircle other neighbors, or dominate in the Indian Ocean. I would like to
explain the current dynamic China‐Myanmar relations from a Chinese perspective. Although China’s
approach may differ from others’ approaches, its general goals are similar. The goals China has
pursued:
China has appointed its capable ambassador Yang Houlan to Myanmar and an experienced senior
diplomat Wang Yingfan as special envoy to Asian affairs, first concentrating on dealing with
developing China‐Myanmar relations.
China has seen Myanmar as a good neighbor, a cooperative partner, and a close friend. Myanmar is
also seen as a land bridge that gives access to the Indian Ocean and enables China to bypass the
Malacca Straits from the geostrategic perspective.
China has support Myanmar’s national reconciliation and domestic unity through constructive
dialogue with the opposition and through negotiating peace agreements with armed ethnic groups.
China has been a biggest investor and improved its intra‐structure by the connectivity projects.
Chinese government and Chinese companies have paid attention to the social obligations and
environmental issues related to their investments.
China has supported Myanmar’s chairmanship of the ASEAN in 2014‐2015 and supported this
nation’s efforts to participate in regional cooperation, particularly participating in the course of the
ASEAN community building. In developing their bilateral relations, China has adhered to the
principles of sovereign equality, friendly consultation on an equal footing, and mutual benefits and
win‐win cooperation.
China has strengthened its efforts to engage with opposition parties and social groups as well as
consolidated its official government‐to‐government relations. Chinese government has invited the
ruling USDP delegation to visit China. China has also invited the NLD delegations and leading minority
ethnic parties or groups to visit China, strengthening people‐to‐people contacts and consolidating
62
the social base of China‐Myanmar friendship and cooperation.
Conclusion
The whole nation is shifting to an agenda of political and economic liberalization, a process
remarkably initiated by positive interactions between President U Thein Sein and Daw Aung Shan Suu
Kyi. However, a number of challenges is facing the new government and these are “serious,
deep‐seated and long‐standing” problems. The Myanmar people expect that this political process
will be conducive to political reconciliation, social stability, and economic development. Minority
ethnic groups hope that peace will be achieved by negotiating new peace agreements with the
civilian government. The 2008 constitution excluded most of the ceasefire groups’ demands for
ethnic self‐determination. It should decentralize authority, particularly in the fields of development
and social welfare, to the new state‐level administrations. The fate of the ceasefires lies with the new
government. The international community has significant interests in “stabilizing” Myanmar.
The international community is expecting the new process of national reconciliation and economic
development sustainable and irreversible. The new government needs to cope with the five
“balancing” issues:
1. Balancing of political democratization agenda and economic development agenda. Any political
reform agenda without people‐centered and development‐oriented agenda are doomed to fail when
people do not benefit from them.
2. Balancing of release of “political prisoners” and return of the internally displaced refugees.
Previous and ongoing armed conflicts have forced over half‐a‐million people to flee their homes,
with 150,000 refugees and some 2 million migrant workers crossing the border to seek refuge and
livelihood in the neighboring countries.
3. Balancing political reconciliation between the opposition and the government and the peace
agreements between the armed ethnic groups and the federal governments.
4. Balancing the relations with the dominant Buddhist population and with the minority communal
groups in terms of social and economic policy making.
5. Balancing relations with all key stakeholders or major players in the region and the world.
We are happy to see that the new government has been making active efforts to maintain the
positive momentum of conducting domestic reforms and pursuing friendly relationships with all
countries, particularly neighboring countries.
63
China‐Myanmar Relations (2011‐2013): Promoting China’s Image in Myanmar
Aung Aung
Independent Researcher
With the recent democratization in Myanmar, the society of Myanmar is heavily influenced by
Western value systems such as democracy, human rights, freedom, and good governance. More
international non‐governmental organizations (INGOs) are coming into Myanmar to encourage civil
society and to strengthen nascent democratization process. From that sense, in the increasingly
active Myanmar’s civil society, you may not survive if you are not talking about human rights.
Currently, international relations and Myanmar are widely being discussed within news journals in
Myanmar including China‐Myanmar relations. Many writers write about the relations between China
and Myanmar from different point of views. Some write that Myanmar should be closer to the US.
Some write Myanmar should be closer to European countries. Some write Myanmar should maintain
relations with China as Myanmar cannot choose its neighbors. Among the critics, one common thing
is that all stakeholders in politics of Myanmar do recognize the importance of China in the future of
Myanmar. Many experts also agree that current image of China in Myanmar is severely damaged as
China supported ex‐military regimes in Myanmar neglecting the voice of the people of Myanmar
under suppression.
People in Myanmar generally feel that China exploited Myanmar during its hard times meaning that
China supported the military mechanism of Myanmar ignoring democracy, human rights and good
governance. In turn, China purchased natural resources of Myanmar with cheap prices. As a result,
Myanmar had become poorer more and more relying on China for everything. In this paper, how
China can promote its image among Myanmar people will be discussed.
It is important for China to understand Myanmar and to conduct strategic public relations diplomacy.
In doing so, the role of Chinese embassy in Myanmar is important as the embassy serves as the
image of China in Myanmar. Before writing the paper, I met around 20 people from the class of Peace,
Democracy & Development (MDRI‐CSIS) in Yangon and also met with taxi drivers and some people
on the streets. Based on the information obtained, in the presentation, there are recommendations
for China to promote China’s image in Myanmar.
In the past, China worked with the Government of Myanmar as the Government was the only main
stakeholder in the politics of Myanmar. However, today’s Myanmar is changing meaning there are
more than one stakeholder such as civil society, political parties and the media. In order to
implement a powerful public diplomacy in Myanmar, China should establish an effective public
relations department at the Embassy of China in Yangon. Local political officers and media officers
should be hired at the department in order to garner updated information and to keep abreast with
the changes. Unlike the US embassy, British Embassy and Japanese Embassy in Myanmar, people
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have little information about what the Chinese embassy is doing in Myanmar. China should also build
Chinese Centers in Myanmar to provide cultural exchange programs (like Confucius Centers). In
Yangon, the American Centre and British Council are very popular among the Youth in Myanmar to
learn English and Western culture, but no people go to the Embassy of China in Yangon to learn
Chinese culture. In order to raise the awareness of Myanmar people on China, China can also
advertise its achievement and values through private media in Myanmar.
In Chinese project areas, long‐term development projects for local people should be considered.
China can do it through local NGOs or can set up a new NGO that can implement the values and
interests of China. Chinese projects in Myanmar are also under critics for not creating enough job
positions for Myanmar’s work forces meaning that China brings their own workers from China. Most
senior positions are occupied by those who speak Chinese so Chinese projects are just for China.
China should also send medical teams and other humanitarian teams to support vulnerable people in
Myanmar. Meeting closely with local people will be one of the best tools to win minds and souls of
Myanmar people. Myanmar is now in the process of democratization so it is important for China to
understand on Myanmar meaning that the politics of Myanmar is more and more complex. So, China
should regularly invite independent scholars/ researchers to China and discuss about the politics of
Myanmar. Students in Myanmar have little information about scholarships from China, so people
think that Chinese scholarships are just for Chinese meaning that if you do not speak Chinese, you
will not win Chinese scholarships. In order to promote human resource development, China can
receive more Myanmar students allocating the quota for them.
In the views of Myanmar people, Myanmar girls are often persuaded to China through
human‐trafficking and are forced to marry to Chinese disabled men or those who have mental
problems. People think that China does not take enough actions against those crimes so China can
take more action on it and should also let people know how China is combating on it through private
media. If Chinese leaders visit Myanmar, they should go and talk to university students and civil
organizations. For example, Western leaders visited Myanmar and met with civil societies. Japanese
leaders also visited Myanmar and met with civil organizations and even they played with children
meaning that within minutes, Japan won the hearts of Myanmar people. In order to strengthen
people‐to‐people relations, China can also send its movie stars or singers to Myanmar to meet with
local people as ambassadors. Like the US and EU, China should allow Myanmar a special trade
opportunity and can write off some debts. In order to encourage the growth of manufacturing and
create more job opportunities in Myanmar side, China should take some measures to increase
imports from Myanmar, so that the trade imbalance between the two countries can be relieved.
China also should examine previous contracts with Myanmar during military regimes as some
Myanmar people think that the Military regime in Myanmar sold out all resources to China before
they quitted the power. Finally, China should work more closely with NLD and should invite Aung San
Suu Kyi to China to discuss current China‐Myanmar relations. China can take this opportunity letting
Aung San Suu Kyi know what China like or dislike.
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China’s Investment in Myanmar under Its Political and Economic Reform
Lu Guangsheng
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Yunnan University
By 2012, China has invested more than $ 14 billion in Myanmar, accounting for about 50% of
Myanmar’s total foreign investment, which makes China the largest investor of Myanmar. Myanmar’s
political and economic reform brings both new opportunities and challenges to Chinese investment.
Myanmar’s new Foreign Investment Law and its efforts to open monopoly industries to the private
sector are attractive for foreign investors, including China. However, the suspension of Myitsone dam
and the protest against Latpadantaung Cooper makes Chinese investors suffers a lot. Facing the new
situation, both the Chinese government and enterprises have adjusted their policy for investing in
Myanmar.
What Has China’s Investment in Myanmar Changed since 2010?
Chinese investment in Myanmar declined. By August 2012, China has invested a total of $ 14.11
billion in Myanmar, ranking the first. The investment is mainly in oil and gas, electricity, mining and
manufacturing. However, it’s reported that no new Chinese investment went to Myanmar after the
Myitsone Dam was suspended in 2011. The effect of the reform carried out by the new government
has yet to be observed. Some Chinese enterprises have stopped to invest in the Northern Myanmar
on in recent two years. Some even plan to withdraw from Myanmar to Laos.
The Chinese government has adjusted its Myanmar policy to come up with the new situation of
China‐Myanmar economic cooperation. A senior diplomat Wang Yingfan was appointed as the
representatives of Asian affairs at the beginning of 2013, in charge of Myanmar affairs. Yang Houlan,
the new Chinese ambassador to Myanmar, is actively contact with all parties, including Aung San Suu
Kyi and leaders of Generation 88. Chinese embassy in Myanmar registered in the Face Book, viewing
it a channel to communicate with Myanmar public. Meanwhile, the Chinese government upgraded
the environmental standards for going‐out Chinese enterprises. In February 2013, the Ministry of
Commerce and the Ministry of Environment jointly issued the Guidelines on Environmental
Protection in Overseas Investment and Cooperation, which is the first of its kind in China. The
guideline makes it clear that the going‐out Chinese enterprises should abide by the laws and
regulations of the host countries and fulfill the responsibility of environmental protection. Chinese
enterprises have to get a recommendation from the provincial (municipal) commercial department
before invest in Myanmar after March 2013.
Facing the complicated situation in Myanmar, some Chinese enterprises introspected on their past
behavior, and took some actions. They pay more attention and invest more to fulfill social
responsibility, promote transparency, engage with local media actively and try to “do more and talk
less”. China Power Investment Corporation, the contractor of the Myitsone Dam, makes great efforts
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to try to change Myanmar’s view on the dam, including investing Myanmar media to China to
enhance communication and dialogue with the local community. In addition to pay attention to
environmental protection, the China‐Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipeline contractor has invested roughly
$ 20 million to improve the infrastructure along the pipeline. It constructed 45 schools, 2
kindergartens, 3 hospitals and 21 medical stations and Maday reservoir and some electric
transmission line in Rakhine State. Wanbao Minning plans to build new school and library around the
Latpadantaung Copper and rebuild the road.
Prospect of China’s Investment in Myanmar
Myanmar will be more pragmatic towards foreign investment. The investigation report on protest
against Latpadantaung Copper points out that the copper project is an officially signed bilateral
project, unilateral suspension will damage Myanmar’s reputation, investors’ confidence, bilateral
relations and the public’s long‐term interest. It shows that despite of some unfriendly behavior
against foreign investment, the Myanmar government and the public will take a more pragmatic and
impartial attitude towards foreign investment for the interest of the country and its people.
Western countries’ return to Myanmar will affect but can’t replace Chinese investors. The U.S.
announced the suspension of economic sanction on Myanmar in May 2012 and President Obama
made a historic visit to Myanmar in the November. The EU officially removed all sanctions against
Myanmar except for arms embargo in April 2013. A month later, Japan announced to provide
Myanmar with 91 billion yen ODA and exempted 200 billion yen debt. However, Myanmar is not
ready for large investment at present due to its backward infrastructure is backward and unsolved
ethnic and religious crisis. In addition, the U.S. hasn’t completely abolished its sanction and not fully
recovered from the global economic crisis. EU is in the debt crisis. Thus, it’s unreality for Myanmar to
count Western countries on large‐scale investment and assistance in the near future.
Generally speaking, there are three main features of China’s investment in Myanmar: holding the
bottom line, waiting and seeing, and gradually improving. Holding the bottom line is to avoid another
Myitsone Dam Event and prevent the China‐Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipeline from huge impact. And
China won’t stop the effort to get the Myitsone Dam re‐start. The on‐going Chinese projects are
long‐term with huge investment, which will be carried out continually unless there is any accident.
Waiting and seeing means China will continue to observe the progress and result of Myanmar’s
political and economic reform, as well as its impact on Chinese investment This feature may last until
the 2015 election has been held or even longer. The trend of slow increasing of China’s investment in
Myanmar won’t be changed as long as the issues mentioned above haven’t been solved or
Myanmar’s situation is still unclear. Gradual improving includes two aspects. One is that the Chinese
government will enhance its guidance for Chinese enterprise in operation, environmental protection
and public relation maintain. The other is that Chinese enterprises will pay more attention to
operation strategy, environmental protection and social responsibility, as well as political, economic
and social risks during the operation.
Conclusion
China is the largest investor of Myanmar. Great changes have taken place in Myanmar’s internal
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affairs and diplomacy since the new government took office in 2011. Although there is uncertainty in
Myanmar economy, the overall prospect is optimistic. In the recent two years, the new government
introduced several economic laws and regulations. It will continue to attach importance on economic
development and attracting foreign investment. Myanmar market will be more mature, and its
investment environment will be more open and in line with international practice. The current
Myanmar market is just starting rising, with both risk and opportunities. Facing such challenges and
opportunities, Chinese enterprises should be more calm, positive and objective.
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State Transformation and the Geography of State Power:
Exploring Cross‐border Development between China and Myanmar
Nora Schlenzig
The University of Hong Kong
Owing to China’s conservative rhetoric on state sovereignty but also because many countries feel
uneasy with China’s growing influence, literature on China’s foreign policy remains dominated by
conventional International Relations theories that adopt a specific understanding of the state. In this
conceptualization, the state incorporates the core features of some form of central government with
exclusive authority over a territory and a defined population. The model moreover implies fairly neat
distinctions between dynamics inside and outside a state’s geographical boundaries and between the
public sphere of politics and the private sphere of society and economics.
Being an ideal type it does not directly portray the ‘real world’. Yet, in recent years many scholars
pointed out that deviations from this standard model are key in understanding today’s cross‐border
relations and they take issue with the dichotomies it creates. A more nuanced understanding of how
state type and cross‐border relations relate thus seems necessary to understand China’s growing
involvement with its Southeast Asian neighbours.
Dynamics that matter in this context are relations between central and local authorities in China’s
two border provinces Yunnan and Guangxi. And while many theoretical debates on state
transformation also discuss increasingly blurred lines between state and non‐state actors more
generally, an issue that deserves special attention in this case is the entanglement of illicit and legal
domains. This refers to criminal activities like drug trafficking and corruption but it can also include
institutions and practices outside the legal framework that take on more constructive functions in
society.
Including different geographical layers of government and actors outside conventional state
administrative bodies into the analysis of China’s relations with its neighbours has the potential to
challenge the image of China as a unitary actor following clear‐cut strategies in its neighbouring
countries for expanding geopolitical influence, following an image campaign or a scramble for
resources. Understanding the many players with different levels of power and goals involved in this
process is key for adjusting and improving engagement strategies for Myanmar.
The various interests and layers of conflict involved can be traced both in discourse and practice with
regard to cross‐border relations. I will try to substantiate these claims by exploring official rhetoric
regarding Yunnan’s new ‘bridgehead strategy’ towards its neighbours, followed by some remarks on
evolving state market relations in China and its impact on China Myanmar relations.
On a visit to the province in 2009, then Party General Secretary Hu Jintao announced that Yunnan
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would become a ‘bridgehead’ for China’s opening towards the southwest. Formally introduced as
part of the 12th 5 Year Plan in 2011, the declared aims of this strategy are to further China’s economic
ties and promote regional cooperation with its neighbours. It also includes the components of border
stability and developing a strategic connection to the Indian Ocean.
This security concern even seems to find expression in the name for the strategy, as ‘bridgehead’ is
originally a military term usually employed to describe a position from which troops defend a bridge
near an enemy. This military connotation can also be found in Chinese dictionaries although Baidu
claims it to be an economic term. Another explanation linguists offer with regard to contemporary
Chinese language is that it still employs revolutionary vocabulary to bridge the gap between
economic transition and socialist ideals that used to once justify one party rule. As it has also been
referred to as the ‘gateway strategy’ in other publications however, it might only be an unfortunate
translation.
Yet, looking at a number of publications regarding the aims of the program reveals that there exist
different readings of what the campaign should entail. The term bridgehead starts appearing in most
publications between 2009 and 2011. So around the same time as it is announced as a national
strategy. These texts usually highlight the official aims outlined above or emphasize domestic efforts
designed to close development gaps between China’s coastal and inland provinces.
However, there is a publication that places the same term in a much earlier context: a development
report published by the economics department of the Yunnan Academy of Social Science on the
China–ASEAN Free Trade Area indicates that the original idea behind it was probably initiated on the
local level. Here, the focus seems to be more foreign policy oriented and economic in nature. Thus,
one can speculate whether meaning and aims of the strategy were only later appropriated and
adjusted by central authorities.
An article in the China Daily in 2011 even calls on Yunnan province to stop treating neighbouring
countries as export markets only to make the relationship more beneficial for both sides. While
unclear whether this reflects an honest appeal of central authorities to improve the local
implementation of national policies or this can be read as a case of shifting blame to lower levels of
government, it definitely suggests that there exist some tensions in centre‐periphery relations.
The very same article also urges the border prefecture Dehong to make use of its strategic position
and broaden investment into Myanmar. However, a visit to the prefecture’s city Ruili ‐ a major border
crossing to Myanmar also referred to as the ‘big toe’ of the bridgehead strategy – casts doubts on
which role the immediate border areas can play in the program. Once a lifeline to isolated Myanmar,
new unrests in Kachin state and Myanmar’s process of opening up to the rest of the world seem to
put a damper on border trade. Dominating the city’s current image are large posters by the People’s
Liberation Army cautioning the importance of military education and in Jiegao cameras are pointed
at the heavily guarded border crossing.
To address the second issue of state – market relations in China requires looking at both formal
regulatory development, reform of the financial sector, ownership forms and the changing bases of
legitimacy of the Communist Party (CCP).
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In terms of CCP legitimacy, economic growth increasingly builds one of pillars of support for the party.
Also, the CCP is trying to embrace private businesses in different ways. A key question remains
however whether the private sector will be serving as an agent of change inside the party or whether
the party is ‘co‐opting’ private entrepreneurs and consolidating its power by sending party members
into business.
Generally, when government officials become private entrepreneurs it can cut both ways. It could
strengthen the private sector in terms of human capital but it can also accelerate crony capitalism.
While the number of private entrepreneurs joining the CCP in Yunnan seems to be growing, overall
they make up for only a small share of the provincial party members.
Another positive development in this context appears to be that market logics begin to infiltrate the
state itself. For example, SOE executive bonuses are increasingly tied to financial performance, and
provincial economic success matters for resource allocations and promotion within the party.
When looking at Yunnan and Myanmar’s case more specifically however, the key problem remains
that most of the provinces industries and the vast majority of investments into Myanmar are in
sectors that remain heavily dominated by SOE’s such as tobacco production, oil and gas exploitation
or water supplies. For local growth at least in the direct border regions this means that the argument
of complementarity does not really hold. Also, the most dynamic part of China’s economy – the
private sector ‐ only plays a marginal role in cross‐border business.
When trying to research private sector involvement in China Myanmar relations in more detail, an
issue that complicates things are the sometimes rather confusing categories in Chinese statistics.
There are a number of different terms lumped together or used inconsistently for the private sector.
Among them, one of the least transparent terms is also the one used most frequently in the
statistical yearbooks of Yunnan. With regard to outward engagement one can only find international
trade numbers without further specifying the recipient countries.
In general, private Chinese businesses have gained a bad reputation of relying on illegal practices in
context of the opium replacement strategy and contract farming in Myanmar. Yet again, the
problems involved are too complex to justify finger pointing at private business owners only.
Cross‐border activities are in fact often overregulated which creates high administrative hurdles and
nuisances.
Another issue that remains problematic for the private sector is the banking system in China. Most
businesses have to rely on the country’s shadow lending system that involves higher risks and
interests rates because official banks do not provide them with loans.
The issue of Renminbi convertibility creates further problems. Despite recent attempts by the
Chinese government to further internationalize the currency, only one bank in Laos and Thailand
have so far signed swap agreements in the Greater Mekong Area. The almost non‐existent banking
system in Myanmar in combination with a lack of regulated financing of cross‐border investment on
the Chinese side thus creates rather unfavourable circumstances for the sector.
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While the current overall picture does not seem very favorable, understanding the different players
and interests involved in cross‐border dynamics also provides some potential for China Myanmar
relations. Considering the true lines of conflict and competition is not only necessary to design
appropriate strategies but might also create new space to improve China Myanmar relations in the
future.
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China’s Investments and Development Assistance in Myanmar
Diane Tang Lee
University of Manchester
Introduction
My PhD thesis will examine interactions between China and Myanmar civil society in China’s foreign
aid and investments. I recently conducted a pilot study trip in Myanmar, and would appreciate your
comments on my preliminary observations. I broadly categorize China’s aid into economic, social and
political aspects. The economic aspect is the infrastructure projects such as dams and bridges. These
are usually thought of as business investments but it is worthy to note that there is sometimes an
economic assistance element in them. The social aspect of China’s aid is the initiatives that help
improve livelihood, mainly the building of schools and hospitals for people in the areas affected by
the infrastructure projects. These are mainly done as part of the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)
initiatives of the Chinese State‐owned Enterprises (SOEs). The political aspect is the facilitation of
peace talks ethnic armed groups and the military.
All of these aspects are connected, but in this presentation I will narrow down to the economic
aspect. China financed many economic projects; those that are supported with grants, interest‐free
loans, or concessional loans could be classified as aid. There are a host of aid projects in the
transportation, manufacturing and agricultural sectors that have been overshadowed by the
unpopular mega infrastructures.
It is clear that under the new political environment, Myanmar civil society is demanding more public
participation in the decision‐making of China’s aid and other investments, while Chinese state media
and embassy in Myanmar have also called for increased public engagement. Some efforts can already
be seen, but I will draw from the current state of environmental governance in China to show how it
will be a challenge for Chinese government and SOE officials, as they are not experienced in public
participation in environmental governance.
Economic Aspect of China’s Aid
China financed many economic projects with grants, interest‐free loans, or concessional loans, which
would classify them as aid. Apart from mega infrastructures like the Myitsone Dam, there are a host
of other projects that have been overshadowed by the unpopular mega infrastructures. Just to cite
some examples, these projects include the Yangon‐Thanlyin Bridge for which China provided an
interest‐free loan of at least 50 million yuan in 1980s, and other interest‐free loans have been
provided to the power‐generation, manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
As with China’s aid to other developing countries, many of the projects are linked with business and
trade. China’s aid is managed by the Ministry of Commerce and the China Export Import Bank, the
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mandate of both is to build China’s domestic economy. This contrasts with the arrangement of many
western countries, for example the US Agency for International Development is housed under the
State Department. This institutional structure reflects that China uses aid for its own economic
development as well as the recipient country’s, which is made explicit in its constant emphasis that
development assistance is more of a “mutually beneficial cooperation”.
China’s provision of business‐linked aid is coherent with its foreign policy grounded on the “Five
Principles of Peaceful Coexistence” – equality, mutual benefit, and respect for sovereignty of the host
country, which Premier Zhou Enlai introduced in 1954. The Chinese leaders to this day assert that aid
is a partnership and not a one‐way transfer of charity nor a tool for hegemonic aggression. In fact
many developing countries such as Sri Lanka, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, governments view it as a
successful model and an amenable alternative than that preached by Western donors with
burdensome conditionalities. Aside from arguments that China is protecting these countries against
international criticism and reprisals, there are a lot of doubts especially in Myanmar whether the
benefits are equally mutual or actually tilted towards China, and also, whether the local populations
can enjoy the benefits, as the recent protests show. As these investments are geared by Chinese SOEs
who are driven not only by diplomatic but also business interests, how do they ensure their business
practices do not infringe on these principles of equality and mutual benefit? How, and to what extent,
China adheres to these principles will be explored in the rest of my research.
It is worthy to note here that China’s aid is very different from western, liberal democratic notions of
aid, whose aid or peacebuilding programmes encompass security sector reforms, rule of law
programming, transitional justice mechanism, election monitoring and so forth.
China’s heavy focus in economic aid is underpinned by the belief that “development is of overriding
importance” which ex‐President Deng famously said in 1970s about China’s reform and opening. It
also reflects developmentalist notions that economic development is the primary means of
establishing political legitimacy. In foreign policy, officials also prioritize economic growth above
other issues such as political reform and social justice.
This state‐centric approach to development has extended to its foreign interventions and brought
accusations that China will support incumbent regimes regardless of their nature, and because it
usually cooperates exclusively with the host government, its interventions may be conducive to
statebuilding but are arguably not an inclusive peacebuilding that involves strengthening of civil
society.
However, I would argue that while state‐centric approach describes China’s assistance in broad
strokes, the local conditions and the host government’s priorities are the fine lines that shape China’s
engagement. In Myanmar, China’s engagement has no doubt focused on support to the government,
but because the Myanmar government sees the urgent need to manage the ceasefires and peace
process with its ethnic minorities, China plays along and supports the peace talks in cooperation with
the Myanmar government and ethnic armed groups.
The recent priority of Myanmar government on political opening resulting in more space for local
civil society to protest is also why China needs to respond to local resistance against its investments
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by engaging with local populations and advocacy groups. China does have its own stake in border and
energy security that motivates it to support peace talk and appease grievances, but the point here is
that when local conditions, influenced by the prevailing priorities of the host government, call for an
approach that is less straight‐forward than the state‐centric, government‐to‐government method,
China adjusts accordingly and pragmatically. It adjusts its aid approach to be more i) comprehensive
in terms of dimensions (i.e. encompassing the social and political aspects stated in the beginning),
and ii) inclusive in terms of the range of actors/stakeholders involved by China.
China Responds to Resistance – Engaging with Myanmar Civil Society
These adjustments are a response to the mounting resistance from Myanmar civil society. From my
observations in the pilot study, there is a strong network amongst Civil Society Organizations (CSOs)
in Yangon, who are actively engaged in various environmental, social, and cultural issues. The
cohesiveness of the CSOs enabled them to cooperate together along with painters, cartoonists, poets,
and photographers to raise awareness throughout the country. At the same time, Yangon‐based CSOs
have good connections with ethnic political party leaders and ethnic activists. Their priorities of
demands might be different – while Yangon‐based CSOs stress on transparency and accountability of
investments, ethnic leaders have an added demand for increased autonomy. Nonetheless, there is a
sense of unity among them that was galvanized during the anti‐Myitsone Dam campaign, overriding
other differences of interests and ethnicity.
China sees the need to respond to the resistance against its investments. After the dam suspension,
there have been increased efforts from the China side to engage with civil society to build dialogue
or for consultation. In 2012, Chinese Embassy had a discussion about Myanmar‐China relationship
that participants thought was very open. An official from Ministry of Commerce carried an
assessment visit to Kachin to speak to local villagers and church leaders to understand their concerns.
Although engagement initiated by state officials were largely considered satisfactory, it is not the
case with the Chinese SOEs. Myanmar‐China Pipeline Watch Committee (MCPWC) made
recommendations to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) concerning the pipeline project,
including improving transparency and the safety of nearby communities. MCPWC expresses its
frustrations towards the denials from CNPC. Another informant from an ethnic party also says that
CNPC denied all the facts to the newspapers. What is heard repeatedly with several activists and
ethnic leaders is they feel cheated by the “so‐called” consultations and compensations, where
photos of the ceremonies would be published as proof that the company has fulfilled its
responsibilities, but affected populations find unsatisfactory.
State‐civil society dialogues have only begun recently, and Chinese SOEs are not familiar with public
consultations. Myanmar civil society is pushing the Chinese state and SOEs on a learning curve of
engaging the public. What is the current state of public participation in environmental governance
within China? How comfortable is the Chinese government (national, provincial levels and SOEs) to
interact with civil society directly, and how experienced is it to respond to public demands?
The Chinese government is not unfamiliar with environmental activism. President Thein Sein’s call to
suspend the Myitsone Dam construction because of public outcry is in many ways reminiscent of
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Premier Wan Jiabao’s call to suspend the Nu River Dam, also known as the Salween River, in 2004
because of a nation‐wide campaign in China against it.
The characteristics of these activisms and the space they are allowed to operate in however, are
presumably very different between China and Myanmar. In China, although the government has
enacted Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and public disclosure regulations in the early 2000s,
government officials are not accustomed to engaging civil society on public decision‐making and
there are various restraints that limit genuine participation of Chinese NGOs. Moreover,
environmental activism in China is cooperative rather than antagonistic with the national
government, as ENGOs tend to have formal or informal ties with the party‐state.
Although I have not explored in great detail the nature of environmentalism in Myanmar and its
relationship with the state, the CSOs I’ve interacted with certainly have no formal or informal ties
with the state. Therefore, Chinese officials are likely to be inexperienced about dealing directly with
the kind of civil society in Myanmar which, unlike in China, is more independent of its own state and
not subject to the same conditions/restraints that China’s environmental activists face, not least
because of the opening up of the political space in Myanmar.
Conclusion
China’s foreign investments are undergoing an image crisis in Myanmar. Chinese state officials have
recognized it and began to adjust its engagement to become more comprehensive and inclusive in
terms of the range of actors involved by China. One of my future research aims will be to find out
how the Chinese state (national, provincial levels and SOEs) interacts with civil society and non‐state
actors in Myanmar in its investments and aid, and what challenges lie ahead.
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Challenges Facing Myanmar’s Migrant Workers
Khin Maung Nyo
Senior Research Fellow, MDRI‐CESD
According to the Economist magazine published on 30th May, in 2009 the International Organisation
for Migration (IOM) estimated that 10% of Myanmar’s population were living abroad. Another study
suggests that there are between 2m and 4m Burmese workers in Thailand, perhaps another
half‐million in Malaysia, more than 100,000 in Singapore, a few thousand in Japan and South Korea,
and then a totally unknown number in India and China. However, last year only $566m (or 1.1% of
GDP) worth of remittances ended up in the coffers of the Central Bank of Myanmar.
As IMF observed on 22nd May, 2013, Myanmar’s ambitious reform program is bearing fruit, with
macroeconomic stability and high investor interest. Growth in fiscal year (FY) 2012/13 (year ending
March) is estimated at around 6½ percent and is expected to accelerate slightly to 6¾ percent in FY
2013/14.
At the World Economic Forum for East Asia, Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi mentioned
that “I want our country to be a sanctuary any of our people can return to and bring their talents
back.” It indicates partly that Myanmar migrant workers are not enjoy working abroad under difficult,
dirty and dangerous working conditions. However, she cannot guarantee when her wish will be
fulfilled and in what way.
Myanmar Ministry of Labor has recently adopted a strategy to address employment and migration. It
has opened 77 employment centers across the country to assist the youth and unemployed access
both domestic and oversea job markets. In particular, it has taken a historic change to register the
migrant workers in neighboring Thailand – a phenomenon previously regarded as an illegal activity
subject to heavy punishment by law. (Framework for economic and social reforms) It has already
issued half a million passports and identity cards to migrant workers while cooperating with the
Royal Government of Thailand in reaching out to around 2 million migrant workers in Thailand.
Official attempts to acknowledge and register reduced the cost of migration and impact on poverty.
Remittances of migrant workers could be channeled through proper banking system.
Myanmar government, which pays little if any attention to migrant workers, adopted policy very
recently which could be interpreted some concerns for migrant workers. Migration policy of
Myanmar new government includes to migrate via formal channel, basic rights for migrant workers
to be protected, to reduce the costs for migration, to focus on socio economic development of
migrant workers and families and gaining experience, skill and knowledge from migration. Moreover,
migration should be integrated into the National Development Strategy. Furthermore, policy
recommended data collection, visits and research to be conducted, integration with international
organizations, international and local civil society. And finally, to endeavor for the development of
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local and regional labor markets.
In Malaysia, seven cases of incidents on 30th May to 4th June killed more than 4 Myanmar workers
and a thousand arrested for interrogation. It is related with group clash and not related with
Malaysians (Myanmar Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs). Even some Malaysia businessmen
demand for protection of Myanmar workers in Malaysia. Most of Myanmar workers in Malaysia
planning to return home because of attacks in Malaysia and concern by their families in Myanmar
but limited by Contract terms and lack of document. Even though those who already worked for
agreed term facing difficult to leave as their passports are controlled by the employees.
According to Deputy Minister for Information ,inexperienced and low capacity of Myanmar embassy
officials in Malaysia make unable to issue Certificate of Identity to remaining illegal Myanmar migrant
workers . According to one estimation, it amounted to 300,000 legal migrant workers and 30,000
illegal workers in Malaysia. Myanmar government could employ very limited officials and
coordination with other ministries is still needed, said Deputy Minister for Labor. As of June 19,
10,000 Myanmar migrant workers already hold Certificate of Identity, according to Minister for Labor.
Other Myanmar migrants who are working in different parts of Malaysia demand for the presence of
Myanmar Counsellor in their regions as it is risky to visit Myanmar embassy in Kuala Lumpur.
Myanmar employment Agencies are restricted by Ministry of labor to bring workers to Malaysia
during June 2013. One delegation of employment agencies visited Malaysia and reported that
conflicts in Malaysia is not related with discrimination of race or religion but based on personal
affairs.
There are some lucky groups of Myanmar migrant workers are still waiting to get registered with
UNHCR as refugee. Hundreds, if not thousands, of Myanmar nationals with refugee cards issued by
the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees were illegally doing business which suffer local
businessmen. Local people criticized UNHCR’s repeated defence of refugees, who were caught
abusing their refugee status by conducting illegal businesses. Some of the Myanmar refugees, who
total about 9,000, according to UNHCR data, had refused to leave Malaysia after establishing
themselves in the country (New Strait Times, 24th June, 2013).
Myanmar business community and civil society actively participated to bring back workers in
Malaysia. On 28th June, 12 workers are employed in Naypyidaw and another 43 workers in Yangon
totally 55 out of around 1000 returnee from Malaysia (New Light of Myanmar 29th June). In general,
their skill and experience might not fit into the needs of local market. However, on the other hand,
Myanmar migrant workers are still leaving to Malaysia through official channel.
Problems in Thailand are different from Malaysia. In Thailand, Reliability and credibility of the
Myanmar Agents in question related with wages and working conditions. Myanmar government in
collaboration with Thai government already issued temporary passport to 1.4 million Myanmar
workers in Thailand. But as 2 million still remain, the process extended again from May 11 to Aug 11,
2013. The cost of temporary passport amounted to 3700 Bahts per worker and 675 Bahts for
dependents and children. However, they still suffer higher cost of temporary passport through agents
at the cost of 15000 Bahts). The causes for registration through agents might be illiteracy, lack of
78
information and understanding of the process, and low income level. Children of the migrant workers
have very few access to education even though 74 schools for Myanmar migrant workers established
in Thailand.
Illegal Myanmar migrant workers are deported by Thai officials frequently as Thai police force trying
to suppress increasing cases of human trafficking. On 21st June, Myanmar labor officials approved
that around 150 Myanmar migrant workers are deported through Myawaddy. Around 200 workers
who already contracted with Thai companies but could not get permission from the Ministry of Labor
protest in Myawaddy for delaying their migration on 28th June, 2013.
Factors affecting returnees might be: economic development in Myanmar , wage differential,
unemployment which increased from 4.01 to 8‐10 percent (Minister for Labor, 31st May, 2013),
under‐employment and low development of businesses , development of peace especially in remote
and ethnic areas and willingness of migrant workers among others. Other related issues include
defining what is home country‐Thailand or Myanmar, new and unfamiliar social and physical
environment in Myanmar, adaptability of Myanmar kids born in Thailand with Myanmar
environment, continuous training and education for Myanmar kids born in Thailand.
There are some area of development including government policy (Myanmar citizens all over the
world need to be protected by the government), easier transfer of remittance via formal channel,
establishing Industrial zones near border areas but developed slowly because of constraints in
financing infrastructure, Complaint Mechanism for local and international labor issues which is
established on 27th June.
79
Exile or Return? The Diaspora’s Role in Myanmar’s Political Transition
Kerstin Duell, PhD
Myanmar Programme Manager, Konrad‐Adenauer Foundation Singapore
Introduction
Myanmar’s tumultuous post‐colonial history has been characterised by decades of direct and indirect
military rule and corresponding political mobilisations ranging from armed ethnic and ideological
insurgencies to mass protests, student movements, and non‐violent pro‐democracy uprisings. The
nationalisation and mismanagement of the economy, the militarisation of the state, political
surveillance and oppression, and the closure of universities triggered the flight of millions of
Burmese. Several main waves of exit can be distinguished following (1) the 1962 military coup, (2)
the onset of the ‘Burma Socialist Programme Party’s direct rule and the U Thant uprising in the
mid‐1970s, (3) the 1988 mass uprisings, and (4) the 2007 uprisings respectively. The largest exodus
occurred between late 1988 and after the 1990 elections when the military government indefinitely
delayed the transfer of power to the elected opposition. Thus, the Burmese diaspora was primarily
conflict‐generated but also comprised individuals who left for educational and professional purposes.
Political exiles as a subset of this diverse diaspora lead a transnational pro‐democracy movement
that maintained sustained challenges against the powerful military regime for over 20 years.
Although activism was only one among multiple factors that induced top‐down political reform
beginning in 2011, the political diaspora can be credited with influencing international relations with
their homeland and, to a lesser extent, domestic politics. The unexpected government‐driven reform
initiative combined with invitations ‐ but no safety guarantees or amnesty ‐ to the diaspora at large
to return home, only attracted a few political exiles back. They currently contribute to the
politico‐economic development, including as advisors to the present government. However, while
there is general agreement over the important areas where the skills and experience of the returning
diaspora could benefit the country’s development, political exiles also meet with distrust from their
countrymen. Disagreement among activists who remained in the country prevails when assessing the
role and motivation of exiles in Myanmar’s reforms. Conflicts persist among dissident groups of a
movement that was split between home and exile over 20 years ago and that attempts to reconcile
different experiences into one combined effort for Myanmar’s transformation.
Attitudes of Activists who Remained in the Country towards Exiles
Many activists in Myanmar are acutely aware of their lack of formal education, theoretical
knowledge, international exposure and organisational capacity as a result of censorship, the
undermining of the education system, and the lack of internet access and ICT. They also lament the
fact that nobody in the country ever experienced the democratic freedoms and practices envisioned
80
for Myanmar’s future.35 Representatives of youth organisations therefore stressed that the primary
contribution of returning exiles consisted in bringing know‐how, international experience and
organisational skills to the movement and to the country’s development at large.
Another important area of exile experience is the interaction with people from other ethnic groups
and hence a different understanding of ethnic relations. In exile, Burmans were in regular contact
with ethnic movement organisations as well as with the armed groups. Not least, key exile groups
such as the NCGUB, DAB and NCUB were founded in the previous Karen National Union headquarters
Manerplaw at the inception of the pro‐democracy movement between 1988‐1990. During the
exodus into territories controlled by the respective rebel armies the latter provided vital help for the
activists’ survival in the jungle and eventual crossing to neighbouring countries. Although
Burman‐ethnic relations were far from smooth, identifying common goals as well as exposure to
international perspectives on ethnic rights increased mutual acceptance in the early years.
Beyond politics, many fields could benefit from the foreign‐educated Burmese’ valuable expertise
and skills. For instance, exile media organisations could become catalysts for media development by
training young journalists, setting standards of journalism ethics, connecting local and international
media and in short, put Myanmar indigenous media outlets on the global news network map. While
the government appears to favour returning exile media, they still need to struggle with cronies who
oppose this new competition and who attempt to outbid or undermine exile journalists.36
In‐country movement leaders are proud of their years of sacrifices to maintain, at great personal risk,
underground networks across the country and contacts with the grassroots. A common criticism is
that exiles remain close to their peers from the 88 Group and political prisoners but not the
grassroots; accordingly, exiles work with the political leaders and main stakeholders but hardly with
the broader civil society that does not focus on strictly political issues.37 There is thus a notion that
exiles fail to approach and to understand the general population’s needs and aspirations.38 Yet,
considering the nature of the previous clandestine work, it comes at no surprise that the mutual
exposure between exiles and the grassroots has been limited at best. However, such criticism
contradicts the claims of the exile organisations like ABSDF, DPNS and FTUB to have worked
extensively at the grassroots during the years of dictatorship.39 Whatever the case, returning exiles
need to intensify their approach to the grassroots in order to work efficiently with the population
and use funds wisely.40
Incongruent expectations pose another point of contention between locals and exiles. Local activists
are well aware that decades of pent‐up frustration and grievances fuel people’s extremely high
expectations to see immediate improvements in matters of daily survival such as food, housing,
electricity, transport, land issues and others. Exiles seem to hold equally unrealistic expectations but
in terms of fundamental institutional changes rather than daily hardship. With an education and
experience often acquired in established democracies and industrial countries, exiles tend to
35 Hkun Htun Oo, ‘A Union for all of us’, Journal of Democracy 23, 4 (2012): 132‐134.
36 Interview with former 1988 activists. Yangon, 2013.
37 Interview with youth activists, Yangon 2013.
38 Interview with youth activists, Yangon 2012.
39 Duell, Kerstin. 2011. Transnational Activism and the Burmese Pro‐Democracy Movement in India and Thailand. Ph.D. dissertation,
Department of Political Science, National University of Singapore. 40 Interview with Ko Ko Gyi, Yangon 2013.
81
measure Myanmar against the political freedoms in their host countries.41 On the one hand, such
comparisons imply how removed from current conditions some exiles may have become. On the
other hand, the vision of a full‐fledged federal democracy will be the key to drive the country’s
reform ahead and prevent it from stagnating at an early stage.
Residual resentments after a 20‐year history continue to impact on relations within the home and
exile movement. Activists in Myanmar have always perceived themselves as the real martyrs and
crucial players, while portraying exiles to a varying degree as hypocrites leading lives in security and
material comfort. Beyond real dedication to the country’s political progress the question of power
lies at the core of the matter. In 2007 for instance, some former political prisoners from the 88
Generation stressed their unwillingness to grant political positions to returning exiles in the event of
transition.42 In 2012, insiders still question whether returnees are driven by concern for their
country or by personal gain. As a member of the Myanmar Youth Union explained ‘we need to call
the exiles back to see their attitudes – whether they return for their own interests or to really help
the country.’43 Others on the contrary believe the returnees to be very committed to a broad‐based
reform and therefore actively be working with many different groups and parties.44
Conflicts also exist over past exile activities – on the exact nature and effectiveness of programmes
and the use of funds allocated to exiles.45 It is somewhat ironic that the competition for funding that
exacerbated some of the internal problems of the movement in exile now causes friction between
exiles and activists at home.
Changing Donor Agendas in the Current Period and Their Implications
The reform process substantially altered ramifications for donors. The flow of people, capital and
information into Myanmar drastically increased. The suspension of most international sanctions
paved the way for formal bilateral and multilateral engagement with the new administration.
International non‐governmental organisations, some of which have a long history of supporting
Burmese refugees, IDPs, and migrant workers in the region as well as political exiles, are entering the
country to carry out their programmes. Several trends among donors of political organisations can be
observed.
First, the traditional donors of the exile movement shifted their focus to support projects in the
country, which are run by newly established organisations or returning exiles.
Second, a different set of donors, international and multilateral agencies supporting political parties,
parliaments and multi‐party platforms are setting up or expanding their specific Myanmar
programmes and staff.
Third, funds to exile and cross‐border projects are drying up. The major donors of the movement in
exile for 20 years – the National Endowment for Democracy, Soros and the International Republican
Institute – continue to support some initiatives but grants will be phased out before 2015. Donors
41 Interview with peace movement organiser, Yangon 2012.
42 Interviews with former political prisoners, Yangon 2007.
43 Interview with Myanmar Youth Union, Yangon 2012.
44 Interview with Generation Wave, Yangon 2012.
45 Interview with NLD Youth, Yangon 2012.
82
may also feel compelled by their respective governments to rush into Myanmar. Yet, this quick shift
and ‘donor fatigue’ have detrimental effects on humanitarian assistance to IDPs and refugees in
border areas and neighbouring countries where the return of these communities remains unclear.
Fourth and related, exile organisations need to re‐invent themselves to stay relevant. On the one side,
the ongoing political opening undermines arguments to ‘stay behind’ in exile. In fact, the exiled
government NCGUB dissolved in September 2012 after 21 years. With Aung San Suu Kyi in
parliament and other progress, the NCGUB had not more ‘raison d’être’, besides the group’s budget
was reduced to a quarter of what it was five years ago.46 On the other side, human rights groups
continue to publicise violations, restrictions of freedoms and Myanmar’s many unchanged problems.
Perhaps the last role for exile organisations would be in the mid‐term to keep a check on whether
progress is being made towards true democratisation, rule of law and respect for human rights.
Outlook
The country’s underdevelopment, humanitarian and political crises engendered a ‘gold rush’ not only
of investors, development assistance and humanitarian aid but also of donors of political
programmes.
Power asymmetries between donors and recipients, between exiles and insiders and between local
well‐established and newcomer organisations created a difficult web of relationships and
dependencies. In addition, the sudden availability of resources also triggered the mushrooming of
Burmese political organisations. This is mainly due to the fact that activists feel they are finally able
to do more and more openly, especially since everyone is preparing for the next general elections in
2015. Genuine efforts notwithstanding, some organisations also appear to be hastily set up to siphon
off some funds without actually offering useful programmes.
The few returned exiles focus so far on building capacities of the main political actors in the country –
the government and parliaments, leaders of political parties and groups associated with the
movement. As a result, well‐known dissidents are represented in presidential advisory boards, in the
MDRI think tank as well as in special commissions, for instance to investigate the Buddhist‐Muslim
communal violence or the security forces’ treatment of the protestors at the Letpadaung copper
mine. However know‐how transfer appears to be seen as a one‐sided process. Missing in this
discussion are the areas where the returning diaspora could learn from people in the country.
The lack of a systematic, transparent and nation‐wide policy applicable to the entire diaspora,
including political exiles, remains a key issue to be resolved. Since President Thein Sein’s verbal
invitations have not translated into legal assurances, most exiles wishing to return hesitate. The
government needs to demonstrate its political will with an amnesty for exiled activists in order for
the country to fully benefit from its diaspora’s skills and expertise.
46 ‘Interview NCGUB Prime Minister Sein Win: Myanmar Elections, a Changing Country and its Exiled Opponents’, PRI’s The World, 30
March 2012
http://www.pri.org/stories/world/asia/myanmar‐government‐opponents‐face‐new‐reality‐in‐wake‐of‐parliamentary‐elections‐9230.html.
83
Transitional Justice in Myanmar: Assessing the Alternatives
Mung Don
The University of Hong Kong
A transitional justice is usually taken place after a political transition from authoritarian or military
regimes to democratic government to address the gross human rights violations of the past
oppressive regimes. Several measures such as retributive justice, reparation, truth commission,
memorialization, affirmative action, institutional reform (vetting process) and other measures are
executed to achieve justice, accountability, national reconciliation, peace and political stability. The
transitional justice measures are envisaged by several human rights activists, local and international
human rights organizations and victims of the gross human rights violations in Myanmar. Several
literatures on transitional justice of Myanmar discussed a variety of approaches to address human
rights violations of the past two decades.
The International Human Rights Clinic at Harvard Law School studied the human rights violations of
the armed conflict between several non‐state armed groups and Tatmadaw in the eastern part of
Myanmar. The study concluded there were war crimes, crimes against humanity and other gross
human rights violations.47 Recently, Tomas Ojea Quintana, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of
human rights in Myanmar has reported to the UN Human Rights Council suggesting transitional
justice measures to seek justice, truth and accountability of the past gravest violations in the political
transitional period. Executing under his mandate, he encouraged the residing parliamentarians to
initiate legislation addressing the past human rights grievances.48 Ian Holliday briefly discussed a
national measure of transitional justice in his ‘Burma Redux’ and suggested a regional or State level
approach to addressing the past violations in his presentation of the 2012 Myanmar Conference.
Post 2010 Election
The human rights activists and organizations in abroad and domestic have campaigned for several
years calling for the establishment of a commission of inquiry of Myanmar. Since the United States
has started engagement policy with the new elected nominal civilian government, the support and
pressure of the international community for the transitional justice was significantly decreased. The
US and some of the European States have extended their political engagement to deeper military
relationship and business investments. The possibility of bringing the perpetrators of gross human
rights violations to the International Criminal Court and other ad hoc international criminal tribunals
is extremely low at present political settings. Some democratic opposition parties are concerned of
47 See generally International Human Rights Clinic At Harvard Law School, Crimes In Burma (Cambridge: Harvard Law School, 2009).
48 See generally at UN Human Rights Council, UN Human Rights Council: Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights
in Myanmar, 6 March 2013, A/HRC/22/58, available at:
http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/RegularSession/Session22/A.HRC.22.58_AUV.pdf [accessed 15 June 2013]
84
prosecution of the military perpetrators will result in negative impacts on the reform process
initiated by the highly military influenced government.
The USDP and military representatives, over 80% of the representatives, is unlikely to initiate any
legislations to address the past human rights violations or amend the Section 445 of the 2008
Constitution which guarantees amnesty to all the actions taken by the military regimes of the past
two decades. The military, the most powerful and influential institution in Myanmar politics, will
prevent any measures to prosecute the senior military leaders. The full‐scale national transitional
justice of any measures seems impossible.
Alternative Measures
Jon Elster suggested the motivation for retributive justice becomes lower with the fading memory of
the past. In his research on the trials of Germany after the WWII, the number of prosecution was
dropped in the later years.49 The gap between the conflict (violations) and the measure of a
transitional justice determines what measures have to be taken. The lack of political will of the
international and national stakeholders raises the question of when the transitional justice will be
initiated in political transition of Myanmar. Currently, the regional or State level measures of
addressing the past human rights violations seems promising while the international and national
transitional justice are constrained by numerous challenges.
The amnesty provision of the Constitution, the Section 445, does not prevent the prosecution of
human rights violations committed by the military after 2010. Under the constitution certain human
rights are guaranteed from violation and the perpetrators are liable under the domestic jurisdiction.
Regardless of challenges such as the Supreme Court, the highest court of the State, has no
jurisdiction over military affairs and the Commander‐in‐Chief has final judicial authority over the
Courts‐martial. The current domestic legal system maintains the immunity of the military institution
from the prosecution of the past human rights violations.
Recent human rights abuses in Kachin State and northern Shan State were violations of the
constitutional rights of Myanmar citizen and existing domestic laws. The litigation of those violations
in either civilian or military courts does not interfere with the constitutional immunity clause and it
will have impact on fighting against the impunity enjoyed by the military. This ambitious legal task
requires a flexible strategy to avoid negative consequences on the victims. Such litigations were
already conducted for the unlawfully detained persons in the armed conflicts by the military
intelligence in Kachin State. The detainees were saved from torture in unknown detention centers
and they were brought to the township and district courts. The impunity poses serious threats to the
rule of law and democratic society and it undermines the political reform process. The judicial
mechanisms are still strongly influenced by the military and executive body. However, the litigation
has revealed the need of institutional reform of the legal system and mechanism of check and
balance.
The next advantage of focusing on recent abuses is that most of the human rights violations were
well reported, published, documented and recorded in video and audio, and the international
49 See generally at Jon Elster, Closing the books: transitional justice in historical perspective (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
85
community was well informed about the atrocities of the conflicts. Some of the victims, relatives and
family members of the victims, witness and the perpetrators are still alive and the evidence can be
accessible rather easily. The 2008 constitutional provision of immunity covers the human rights
violations in Karen State, Shan State and eastern parts of Myanmar because those violations were
committed before the new government was installed and the 2008 constitution came into effect. The
regional measure of Kachin State is very unique and timely approach to transitional justice.
The current reform taken by the government, the investment interests and political attention of the
international community are supposed to be favorable ground for initiation of small but timely
regional measures of transitional justice. The scope and mandate of the alternative measures are
limited but it is a catalyst for national measure of transitional justice and it exposes the necessity to
end the cycle of conflicts. Based on the precedent cases, the alternative measures might not be
effective or have incredible impact on the institutional reform or political transition like the
retributive justice conducted by the International Criminal Court, ad hoc criminal tribunals or hybrid
courts. However, it is an initiative for broader and forward‐looking national transitional justice, and
preliminary measure to lobby the Union government and State government for rehabilitation and
reparation of the victims of violations and armed conflicts.
Such moderate alternative measure is supposed to avoid provoking the security concerns of retired
Generals and the litigation should focus on the prosecution of physically committed or directly
complicit military personnel. The retired military Generals are not liable as they are no longer in the
position of formal military structure. The most likely to be prosecuted under this legal approach are
low ranking officers such as major, lieutenant and private. The highest possible responsible position
might be ‘Bureau of Special Operation’ and the approach opens an escape route for senior military
officials through the flow of command system. The Commander‐in‐Chief or other higher officials is
assumed not to order to commit rape, murder or torture, but non‐recognition of the violations and
lack of accountability create collective guilt of the military institution. The legal justice is an
important step to national reconciliation because it individualizes the crimes and help the Kachin
community change the perception of collective crimes of the Burman. The president and General
Myint Soe, from Bureau of Special Operation and in charge of military operation in Kachin State and
northern Shan State, stated that the military personnel are liable for any commission of violations
under domestic civilian laws and military laws in recent interview.50
The regional measure cannot fully address the legacy of past violations but it can achieve the
government’s recognition of those violations. The initiative will raise transitional justice as an issue in
2015 election. The fact‐findings, documentation and investigation by the regional measure are
preparatory step for wider national measures. On the other hand, the rehabilitation and reparation
measures can acquire the necessary data from the fact‐findings and other local NGOs can initiate the
approach to rebuild the livelihood of the victims. The victims will not be left behind, but equipped
with skills and education to join the competing open market and workforce in the transition. The
development of people from war‐torn areas will surely reduce the burden on the State and
strengthen the democratization process. All in all, the regional measure is a compulsory initiative for
truth commission or other transitional justice measure and national reconciliation.
50 Nyein Nyein & May Kha, “ Don’t Believe Everything You Hear,” The Irrawaddy, June 4, 2013. http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/36431
86
Cultural Elite: Situating Hip Hop in the Transition
Jacqueline Menager
Australian National University
A preoccupation since the 2010 elections has been the question of ‘why now’? Over the past two
days we have heard various facets of this transition and I would like to add another ‐ that of
generational change. Young people have grown up in a country with a basic standard of living and
considerably fewer opportunities than the countries where many of them travel for university studies
and vacations. The role of young people in the current transition cannot be overlooked: as both a
force for change and as the leaders of the future. It is not only an economic and political transition
but a social one; young people have begun to expect more from their country.
The concept of elite is a linking factor and a justification for studying culture in Myanmar. While we
have discussed notions of political elite and the economic transition in Myanmar, I think it is
necessary to link these actors and their actions to wider society. Here culture and specifically music
provides one such link. Hip hop musicians influence what is considered desirable and this both
supports and drives the current shift from a militarily dominated country to a more cosmopolitan
outwardly looking population.
Hip hop is quickly becoming the most popular music in Myanmar. While rock bands, most
prominently Iron Cross and R Zarni, have dominated the past, the future looks to be preoccupied by
hip hop. Popular music and the cultural sphere of Myanmar is an important driver and measure of
the transition. Not only does music offer an ideal medium for the expression of social realities and
values, it also has the potential to challenge the status quo. Here I am not referring only to politically
oriented music, but more importantly to music which challenges certain moral and social mores
which are outdated and repressive to many, primarily the youth of today.
When appraising the hip hop scene in Myanmar, three distinct categories of musicians can be
identified. Firstly, there are the children of wealthy families who want to be famous. Their families
bankroll their questionable talent, with auto‐tuned songs written and produced by talented
musicians, excessive advertising displaying their expensive photo shoots and the funds to put on
elaborate shows in prime locations. The second group are artists who are talented, but not as
wealthy, and have persevered with music, negotiating with censors, competing for sponsorship and
networking for features on the wealthy artists tracks and spots in their shows. And finally, the third
group are artists who are classified as ‘underground’. This final group is the focus of this paper.
Here the concept of underground needs to be unpacked. An underground artist in Myanmar is
someone who has never released an official album, that is, they have never applied to the Press
Scrutiny and Registration Board. Instead, they have relied on the internet to distribute their music,
uploading to Youtube, Facebook and other file sharing sites to circulate their music. Also, live
87
performances were a crucial ground for increasing their fan base.
Underground artists in Yangon did not apply to the censorship board for several reasons. Firstly,
many have tattoos, which were banned on posters, advertising, TV and film clips until November
2012. Secondly, their lyrics, while not always directly political were more confrontational than the
censor board would approve, most often discussing how hard life is in Myanmar. While these lyrics
would not always directly indict the government nor be directly political, but rather conform to a
typical hip hop practice of talking about hustling and life on the streets, the artists predicted the
censorship board would not have approved and therefore did not apply.
If they were to apply and their songs didn’t pass, they couldn’t upload them to Youtube or Facebook
or perform them live, as that would have had serious repercussions being a direct disregard to the
censorship decision. Whereas if censorship was never sought, artists could simply remain under the
radar and have more grounds for contestation if they were ever confronted for their music.
Interestingly, while this approach of skirting the censorship board seems risky, I have not heard of
any of the underground artists being punished for such defiance. Indeed, a video clip for one song
shows the artists in a physical conflict with actors, dressed as Yangon police. This was considered by
the artists as considerably dangerous, however even this went seemingly unnoticed by the
authorities.
Following the end of censorship in late 2012, these underground artists are currently working to
release their first official albums this year. While the albums due to be released throughout this year
do not have to go through any censorship process, the artists are still taking a risk releasing official
albums. The artists do not know what the results of their official releases will be, especially
considering some of their songs are openly confrontational, discussing the 1988 uprisings, political
prisoners and refugees on the Thai‐Burma border for example. As with most facets of the newly
forming country, the true extent of musical freedom will be tested over the next few years, through
the release of increasingly controversial songs.
Certainly, a free music scene is important in and of itself, however, it indicates broader changes also.
Presenting a model for youth with less traditional morals, it offers an alternative to what was
previously a more conservative culture, which emulated military force as the key marker of elitism
and power. Now the cultural cache, which can be garnered from being conspicuously ‘cool’, is joining
previous methods of gaining power, predominately wealth and military connections. This change
affects many facets of Burmese society, including gender inequalities for example.
The hip hop industry in Myanmar is a predominately male domain. This comes from the difficultly of
women entering the industry due to restrictions on their movements from parents, husbands,
boyfriends and the stigma attached if they do so. Females in the public sphere, including models,
actresses and singers, who dressed provocatively by Burmese standards, who went out at night and
acted independently from their male custodians were virtually considered prostitutes, with outraged
comments towards photos, videos or news articles about them. This obviously stopped many from
even considering or pursuing the occupations. This is beginning to change, with some female hip hop
artists becoming popular, including Bobby Soxer and Sandy Myint Lwin.
88
This leads to another important aspect of Myanmar’s hip hop culture, that of image. Popular music
internationally is entering a new period of music distribution and how artists make money. While
previously relying on profits from album sales, now with the proliferation of free downloading of
albums, artists are earning money from alternative means including sponsorships and touring.
Myanmar’s underground hip hop artists have long relied on sponsors, appearing in promotional
material for clothing and accessories, state promotional material and movie soundtracks. This
includes promotional material for private clothing, watches, jewelry, makeup, mobile phone launches
and retail stores, as well as government campaigns ‐ for example several major hip hop artists have
been commissioned to write songs and film video clips for the South East Asian Games being held by
Myanmar in December this year. And thus, more than the music quality necessarily, hip hop artists’
reputations and image are becoming increasingly more important.
As hip hop becomes more popular and profitable, so an increase in a formalization of the
management of artists can be seen. Producers, studio owners, sponsors and event managers are
increasing becoming viable businesses, and as such the industry is becoming more formalized and
somewhat depersonalized. The four most popular hip hop artists in Yangon currently are Sai Sai,
Snare, Bunny Phyoe and Hlwain Paing. These artists perform almost always together and almost
exclusively for the event organizer BoBo Entertainment. Sponsors for these events have recently
begun to include Coca Cola and Tiger Music.
An integral quality of hip hop are group affiliations. Both from groups of rappers who perform as one
entity, including PBD Hood, Cyclone and Snare, but also of associations of musicians, the most
prominent of which is the Myanmar Hip Hop Association or MHA. Members of MHA bear large
tattoos of the acronym and often perform together in shows and on albums. A side effect of such
group affiliations are competition and rivalry, which is currently intensifying in the Yangon scene.
With the perception that the industry is about to take off with increasing foreign investment and
disposable income, everyone wants to be at the head of the pack as sponsors begin to invest more
and the possibility of international record companies entering the market increases.
Ultimately, all these changes indicate hip hop in Myanmar is driving many social, political and
economic changes, including the traditional discrimination against tattoos, gender inequality, military
elitism, censorship of freedom of speech and foreign involvement and perception. As such, the
interplay between culture and politics requires further analysis and a greater appreciation in
Myanmar Studies.
89
Soldiers as Lawmakers: In Search for a Legislative Role for the Tatmadaw
Renaud Egreteau
Research Assistant Professor, The University of Hong Kong
Under authoritarian rules, parliaments are frequently construed as “rubber stamp” legislatures. They
are expected to act according to the wishes of the powerful executive. In transitional periods
though, the significance of newly‐formed legislatures increases considerably. Newly‐elected
parliaments can indeed either act as obstructionist bodies defending the interests of the old ruling
class, or, on the contrary, foster democratization. In post‐junta regimes, the military commonly
seeks a constitutionally‐sanctioned presence in these parliaments – but not always as the case of the
post‐1986 civil‐military transition in the Philippines illustrate. The legislative participation of the
military is usually secured through reserved seats in national and/or local assemblies. Through this
presence in lawmaking bodies, praetorian armies intend to keep an eye on the legislative process
and safeguarding their own interests, beside other channels of influence they have captured in the
state bureaucracy and transitional executive and other policymaking structures. Indonesia has long
offered a case model with General Suharto’s New Order (1965‐1998). The Indonesian military indeed
managed to institutionalize its participation in governance and lawmaking. Active generals and
colonels have long populated Indonesia’s embassies, ministries and parliaments. It was only in the
early 1990s that the mandated presence of the armed forces in the national parliament in Jakarta
began to be seriously debated. Military parliamentarians were eventually withdrawn from national
and local legislatures in 2004.
In Myanmar, the 2008 Constitution provided a significant opportunity for the Tatmadaw to follow
this model. Burmese army delegates represent roughly one fourth of each local and national
assemblies formed after the 2010 elections. They can therefore boast 110 seats in Pyithu Hluttaw
(article 109b of the Constitution), 56 seats in Amyotha Hluttaw (article 141b), and a total of 222
seats in the fourteen state and region legislatures (article161d). All military appointees are
nominated by the Commander‐in‐Chief of the Tatmadaw. It was one of the last decisions taken by
Senior‐General Than Shwe on January 20, 2011, before his retirement. Out of 388 first‐time
delegates appointed by Than Shwe in 2011, there were only three army colonels in Pyithu Hluttaw,
two in Amyotha Hluttaw, whilst one army colonel lead each military delegation in the fourteen
decentralized local assemblies, safe the Kayin State where a Brigadier‐General has been posted (he
would thereafter be nominated Chief Minister). All other military appointees were of lower ranks –
majors, captains, and navy lieutenant‐commanders. For many observers, their core objective in the
parliament was to ensure the army a non‐negotiable “veto” on any potential constitutional reform;
indeed 75 per cent of the legislators are required to pass any amendment on the Constitution.
But if the presence of the military in the post‐SPDC national and local assemblies seems secured,
Tatmadaw’s legislative power appears not as unlimited and unchecked as often claimed by
pro‐democracy activists. Initially, many an observer thought the military appointees would just have
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to resist potential amendments to the Constitution prepared by leading opposition MPs, secure the
nomination of the President and one of the two Vice‐presidents (both with substantial military
background), and deal with military‐related affairs. But the political significance of the army
representatives in the national parliament (far more than in the local legislatures) has gradually
evolved, in line with the enduring political salience of the Tatmadaw. During the first post‐2010
elections parliamentarian sessions, newly appointed army delegates tended to keep low profile in all
assemblies. But once the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy
entered both houses after the by‐elections held in April 2012, the parliament’s prestige emerged
redeemed. Already, the assertion of Thura Shwe Mann’s political authority as Speaker of Pyithu
Hluttaw has since 2011 strengthened its importance. This was all the more highlighted by rumours
on his emerging political rivalry with the executive power and President Thein Sein.
Above all, military representatives have progressively showed skills at participating in
parliamentarian debates, discussing law propositions and arranging for shuttles of bills between the
two houses of Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. Special trainings have been provided to them and political
science teachings are compulsory at the Defence Services Academy (DSA). When in early 2013 I
conducted interviews in Naypyidaw and Yangon with parliamentarians, some have recalled how they
have attempted to establish some sort of friendly dialogue with their military colleagues, especially
the mid‐rank officers. Discussions within the premises of the national assemblies in Naypyidaw
appeared far more forthcoming than initially expected. After all, legislative mechanisms were also
quite unfamiliar to civilian MPs, who took for the first time a parliamentarian position in 2011.
Furthermore, three weeks after the historical election of Aung San Suu Kyi in April 2012, the
substitution of 59 majors and captains with as many Brigadier‐generals and colonels as new military
appointees in Pyidaungsu Hluttaw underscored an evident policy change from the armed forces.
From then on, higher ranking military officers were to get thoroughly involved in legislative debates.
This indicated the increasing importance the Tatmadaw – and more particularly its C‐in‐C Min Aung
Hlaing – gives to a legislative branch. This is also in line with the Tatmadaw’s rhetoric on the image
of responsibility, accountability and dedication to the public interest that every senior army officer
should project, including in non‐military bodies and institutions.
Besides, military appointees have increasingly proved ready not to vote systematically against
propositions prepared by opposition MPs (far from it). On some issues once considered as “national
security” and reserved to the sole military hierarchy during the SLORC‐SPDC era, military delegates
have proved willing to listen and, sometimes, align with the opposition. When the support for a
general amnesty for prisoners was proposed in August 2011, military appointees acquiesced.
According to civilian parliamentarian themselves, the new legislature – although far from perfect –
therefore in no way resembles the tightly controlled National Convention which drafted the
Constitution between 2004 and 2007.
If the post‐SPDC national and local parliaments can prove they are no rubber‐stamping legislature, in
which military delegates act cooperatively with the dominant party as well as the opposition, the
prospects for a consolidation of the post‐SPDC transition through parliamentarian activism would
therefore appear brighter. Encouragingly, the military delegates have not opposed the formulation
of the most significant reform‐minded laws since 2011 – especially at the Union level. The critical
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role, behind closed doors, of the charismatic Thura Shwe Mann might explain. A further positive sign
would be that the military moves beyond its primordial veto function sanctioned by the Constitution
to actively participate in lawmaking and reform planning. This is however where the transition
appears to remain extremely fragile, and expectations too idealistic. Tensions might loom soon.
Opposition members and particularly Aung San Suu Kyi have repeatedly claimed that the presence of
men in uniform in post‐SPDC assemblies was an anomaly that has to be corrected. They push for a
constitutional amendment before 2015. As in Indonesia in the 1990s, how the issue is dealt with will
prove critical to the consolidation (or not) of a peaceful relationship between the civilians and the
still dominant military, and this beyond the premises of the parliament.
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Authoritarian Survival Strategies in Comparative Perspective:
Myanmar, China and North Korea
Wooyeal Paik
Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul
Three authoritarian regimes in (South and North) East Asia—Myanmar, China and North Korea—have
been experiencing substantial challenges and changes in recent years, but have responded differently.
Myanmar made a transition to market economy with recent significant political reform; China has
made a transition to market economy without fundamental political reform; North Korea has not
made a transition to market economy without any political reform. These three authoritarian
regimes’ different paths for their own regime survival help us to understand authoritarian regimes in
East Asia. More specifically, comparing the three East Asian authoritarian regimes would show their
resilience, survival strategies, and economic and political reform and transition.
In this vein, this paper focuses on the following four questions: (1) How have the three authoritarian
regimes—China, Myanmar, and North Korea—in East Asia been surviving?; (2) Why did some
authoritarian regimes make economic and/or political transition and the others not?; (3) What are
the roles of semi‐competitive election, authoritarian regime type, and clientele structure in making
such distinctions with the similar result (regime survival)?; (4) What are other critical factors beyond
these three domestic factors?
To answer this set of questions, this paper uses comparative political study with qualitative methods
of case study of three regimes and quantitative methods for large pictures in East Asia and other
regions (large‐N study). To use these methods for this research, there are some concerns such as the
“kitchen sink” method (i.e. including every possible variable in the equation); the “endogeneity” (i.e.
the causal relation runs in both directions) problem; and the “multicollinearty” (i.e. two or more
predictor variables in a multiple regression model are highly correlated) problem
Main arguments of this paper are as follows. Authoritarian regimes in East Asia have been
transforming themselves into different types of hybrid regime for its own survival. The following
three theoretical frameworks are helpful to analyze their authoritarian resilience: (1) Institutional
arrangement (electoral institution); (2) Authoritarian regime type (single‐party, military, personalistic,
and hybrid); and (3) Their engendered similar but distinct patron‐clientele structures (at the elite as
well as mass levels). These theoretical frameworks, the further study will be incorporated to the
context of economic and political reform(or transition).
Case I. The Tatmadaw Regime in Myanmar
Its institutional arrangement (electoral mechanism) has been based upon semi‐competitive national
and local elections with increasingly more competitiveness (esp. since 2012) with the ordinary
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citizens’ significant electoral experiences and opposition party and charismatic leaders such as Aung
San Suu Ki. Its authoritarian regime type is still military type, which is conventionally the most
unstable and short‐lived, but not for Myanmar and similar with the previous South Korea
1960s~1980s. Its patron‐clientele structure is composed of two sectors: at the elite level, it revolving
around the military armed force (tatmadaw) and connected entrepreneurs and at the mass level, the
ordinary citizens are largely excluded, but are somehow connected into the military‐based
clientelism for their own survival.
Case 2. Chinese Communist Party Regime in China
Its institutional arrangement (electoral mechanism) has no meaningful election above the village
committee election with neither opposition parties and leaders nor substantial electoral experiences.
This regime promotes “Socialist Democracy with Chinese Characteristics”, which is not very clear. Its
authoritarian regime type can be categorized as single‐party (Chinese Communist Party), which is
very stable with collective leadership at the top (established succession mechanism) and more than
82 million party members. The patron‐client structure of this single‐party regime has that of
revolving around political and economic resources at the elite level and that of not revolving around
elections and largely between local governments/cadres and newly emerged entrepreneurs
excluding most ordinary citizens at the mass level.
Case 3. The Kim Family Regime in North Korea
Its institutional arrangement (electoral mechanism) has no meaningful election without any
opposition parties and leaders and electoral experience of ordinary citizens. Its ruling coalition is the
smallest among three cases. Its authoritarian regime type is a so‐called triple‐threat (a hybrid of
Single‐party, Military, and Personalistic) and relatively stable with succession issue. Its patron‐client
structure is composed of the Kim Family and its military and party cronies at the elite level and local
cadres and illegal businessmen at the mass level. It seems that there is no patron for ordinary citizens
who barely survive in everyday life.
Conclusion
Based upon the preliminary research, more specific mechanisms related to economic and political
reform/transition in each case will be investigated. To be sure, some other factors for regime survival
will be state repression (Its proportional change with political openness?), predatory state vs.
developmental state, international factors (Nuclear Weapons, China/US…), and ideology (The Revival
of Great Chinese People, National Unity, We Kim Ilsung People…). Also, these three authoritarian
regimes will be compared with other authoritarian regimes from previous and current as well as in
East Asia and other regions for general patterns for prediction.
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Myanmar’s Economic Potential: Peace Making or Peace Breaking?
Joakim Kreutz
Uppsala University
The Myanmar reform process starting with the 2008 Constitution have so far been accompanied by
an increase in political violence‐ particularly near economically important areas. Widespread public
protests have taken place against planned dams and pipelines, and natural resources rich areas have
been affected by clashes between the government and non‐state armed groups in Kachin and
northern Shan state. Indeed, statements by representatives for non‐state armed groups repeatedly
assess that the current fighting occur because the government wants to capture these natural
resources. But this behavior flies in the face of established theories on rational political
decision‐making: why engage in costly fighting in exactly the locations where the peace dividend
from the end of conflict will be the greatest?
In what follows, I suggest an explanation that focuses on the dynamic nature of strategy employed by
belligerents during civil strife. Thereby, I move away from a common assumption in scholarly work on
internal war warring party behaviuor is determined solely by their interaction with each other. In this
short research note, I focus explicitly on one factor – parties expected duration of the conflict – and
one effect – whether parties choose to engage in battle near or far from important economic
resources. Following a presentation of the theoretical argument, I explore whether this can be
observed in Myanmar. The empirics build on the shift in government behavior in northern Myanmar
(Kachin and Shan States) as a consequence of the reform process, and I conclude with a discussion
on the implications this may have for the possibility of ending civil war in the country.
The Aims of Rebels and Governments in Conflict
While there can be many reasons for why civil strife erupts somewhere, the choice of action by
governments and rebels in the initiatl stages are strikingly similar across different countries. The first
rebel offesnives focuses on the achieving the goal of getting increased access to power. In the first
years of post‐colonial Burma, several rebellious movements were almost able to succeed with this
but the early ABSDF government managed to defend itself. Fighting was extremely intense as both
sides committed all their available resources towards the military campaign in the expectation that
the conflict soon would be over. Most of the fighting was located at the most economically and
symbolically important resources, such as cities, trading posts and transport routes, as capturing
them could provide important resources for post‐conflict reconstruction.
However, unless one side succeeds in defeating the other in these early clashes, belligerents have to
reconsider their strategy. Knowing that they are unable to comprehensively win the conflict and
achieve their ultimate goals, they have to focus on secondary goals such as survival and to
strengthen militarily over time. In order to do this, governments will claim control over as much
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territory as possible to be perceived as strong and legitimate. Rebels, on the other side, need to
ensure that they control some territory for recruitment purposes and are able to set up bases for
military training, political education, and the development of a political wing. Both sides also need to
be more cautious with their existing resources. Thus, even though the competitoin still centers on
control over territory, belligerents are less willing to commit resources for this and clashes will not be
near economically important areas. It is rational for them to avoid fighting near economically
important areas since that could disrupt their income from the ongoing trade with natural resources.
To maximize income from these areas for the warring sides, they will instead establish arrangements
to ensure that they receive a share of the income from the trade without having to risk losing
soldiers or income. In Myanmar, such arrangements have consisted of for example taxation of
companies involved in logging and mining, as well as road‐blocks or protection pacts seeking revenue
from transporting the goods towards the Thai and Chinese borders.
If negotiations begin and the parties see these as credibly offering a way to settle the conflict, they
will again reconsider their expectation of the duration of conflict and subsequently shift from
temporary to ultimate goals. In order to improve their bargaining position as well as secure
important resources in the post‐conflict society, the strategic aim of the parties will shift back
towards economically important areas. At the same time, they will also be more willing to commit
the resources at their disposal to secure these areas in what is perceived as the end‐game of the
conflict. This is of course a risky choice, an intensification of violence runs counter to attempts to
build trust between belligerents and may lead to a breakdown of the talks and a return to protracted
conflict.
The Government Approach to Ethnic Minority Areas in Northern Myanmar 1948‐2007
Ever since independence, the government has shown little ambition to engage with or incorporate
northern Kachin and Shan states into the state formation of Burma/Myanmar. Most areas have not
been under direct government control, and there have been few attempts to establish state presence.
Instead, these areas have been ruled through more or less formalized networks where local saophas,
religious actors, and local strongmen who have been trusted with controlling the political and
economic local life. This approach persisted even during the SLORC/SPDC “ceasefire” period. Despite
an opportunity of almost two decades of reduced violence in these areas and where many local
leaders explicitly requested government support for schools and healthcare, little interest was shown
by Yangon/Naypyidaw. Tellingly, there were not even much interest from Myanmar businessmen to
access the income from natural resources in these areas, with almost all investments only involving
foreign companies from, in particular, China and Thailand. The military government, and particularly
local commanders, continued to tax the trade in these areas which suggest that they remained
focused on the short‐term goal of preparing for fighting rather than seeking to consolidate their
long‐term power.
The Government Approach to Ethnic Minority Areas in Northern Myanmar 2008‐
In my research, I have found that the prevailing view is that there was a visible change of government
strategy following the new constitution 2008. Since then, the government has with increasing
assertiveness focused their troop deployments and political efforts towards securing control over
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economically important areas. The first sign of this followed the acceptance of some non‐state forces
to transform into border guard forces (BGF). While much of the opposition of the BGF scheme from
non‐state armed groups focused on their unwillingness to serve under a Myanmar army commander,
this aspect has not been the cause of as much fraction as originally expected. However, when a new
BGF has been formed, this has usually been accompanied by a deployment of Myanmar army units at
economically important areas nearby. The second sign that the government is paying more attention
to natural resources are the events that led to the resumption of the Kachin conflict in 2011.
Although tension had been lingering between the government and the KIO for some time, the spark
that started the fighting was the intrusion of government soldiers into an area that the 1994
ceasefire terms stipulated as controlled by KIO. This should not have necessitated an escalation of
violence that now has lasted several years, but the government forces refused to withdraw while the
KIO were similarly reluctant to concede this economically important territory. Finally, many ethnic
minority representatives also claim that the governments’ priorities in the ongoing peace talks have
been to focus first on achieving a ceasefire with those groups that controlled the most economically
important areas. As the peace process has persisted and widened, it is not possible in 2013 to
suggest that the government only is interested in ceasefires only where there are natural resources.
However, the content and uneven progress of the talks indicate that both the government and the
non‐state armed groups are fully aware of the importance of controlling future economic growth:
some groups have explicitly demanded that they are granted at least partial control over areas that
are considered as having economic potential. In some cases, this has even included areas that
currently are not under rebel control.
This study yields three implications that can be useful for understanding the contemporary situation
in Myanmar. First, there is a rationale behind the escalation of violence in some parts of the country
during the early stages of the peace process as competing actors are vying for power in a future
Myanmar. Second, while this may explain the violence in Kachin and northern Shan state, we should
not underestimate the risk that this may delay or reverse the peace process. Increased violence is a
threat to any attempt of settling or implementing a settlement and there is a risk that all the
Myanmar army and the non‐state armed groups move back into a mode where they expect fighting
to persist of another generation or so. This would likely increase human rights abuse and challenge
the development that is necessary in the country to safeguard both the peace process and the
political reforms. Third, it is also necessary to be observant on how this competition to control
natural resources and economic centers is manifested. An consequence of the contentious relations
between government and non‐state armed group is that whichever actor ends up in control may also
be protective against any other community or political organization in this territory. If all
economically promising areas are controlled by a unique actor who rejects the possibility of
non‐violent actors co‐existing in the same space, then Myanmar’s road towards both democracy and
economic growth will be substantively longer.
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Obstacles to Police Reform in Myanmar/Burma
Andrew Selth
Griffith Asia Institute
Despite all the publicity that Myanmar (Burma) has received since the inauguration of a hybrid
military‐civilian parliament in 2011, and the launch of an ambitious reform program by President U
Thein Sein, there are some important issues which seem to have escaped serious study. The reform
of the national police force, for example, has not been specifically covered in any of the president’s
speeches about the need for the ‘rule of law’. However, it has become clear that the government
wishes not only to reinvigorate existing plans to expand and remodel the Myanmar Police Force
(MPF), but also to give it a more distinctive civilian style and ethos, and see it take greater
responsibility for some key aspects of the country’s internal security. Indeed, such steps will be
essential if Myanmar is to strengthen the rule of law and make an orderly transition to a genuine and
sustainable democracy.
The armed forces (Tatmadaw) will remain responsible for external defence and for major security
operations such as counter‐insurgency campaigns against armed ethnic groups. However, it seems to
be envisaged that, as part of the broad democratisation process, the MPF will assume a greater role
in terms of law enforcement and the maintenance of internal order. Already, there are more blue
uniforms than green uniforms on the streets of Myanmar’s population centres, protecting VIPs,
standing static guard outside government offices and diplomatic missions. In rural districts they are
manning road blocks and protecting important infrastructure sites such as bridges. The police can
also be expected to play a larger part in quelling outbreaks of civil unrest, with the army only called
upon to provide aid to the ‘civil’ power during emergencies, as occurred in Arakan (Rakhine) State in
2012 and central Myanmar in 2013.
To this end, the MPF is being expanded, restructured and modernised. It is already larger and more
powerful than it has been since the colonial era, but the goal is a force of over 100,000 men and
women, with 34 ‘security’ battalions. As seen on the MPF’s comprehensive new Myanmar language
website, recruitment standards and officer level entry requirements have been raised. At the same
time, the MPF’s doctrine and training programs are being changed to give greater emphasis to
‘community‐based policing’ by unarmed officers working in close cooperation with the civil
population. This approach may not be completely new to Myanmar but, if fully and successfully
adopted, it will be in stark contrast to the tough paramilitary style of policing that has characterised
the force since General Ne Win’s 1962 coup d’etat.
As the former military regime found before 2011, however, and as post‐authoritarian governments in
other countries — such as Indonesia — have also experienced, the reform of a national police force
presents enormous challenges. Such transitions are never quick or easy. There are a number of areas
where the government and police force are likely to encounter challenges during the reform process.
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Inevitably, given the rapid expansion of the MPF, there will be structural and resource pressures. In
addition, Myanmar’s armed forces remain very powerful. There will be some areas, such as
intelligence collection and internal security operations, where the interests of the MPF and
Tatmadaw will overlap. The respective roles, responsibilities and associated benefits of the two
institutions may be sorted out — probably in the Tatmadaw’s favour — but there could still be
friction. Also, there are cultural issues in the police force which will take a long time to resolve.
Corruption and the abuse of power, for example, are deeply‐rooted problems that will be difficult to
eradicate. Until they are, the force’s relations with the civil population will remain problematical.
In addition, such reform measures cannot be implemented in isolation from other institutions of
state. As the president has said, the benchmark for public bodies must be the rule of law,
administered fairly and impartially. There can be no tolerance of a system which constantly alludes to
the rule of law, but enables practices that contradict it. For decades, the ‘rule of law’ was conflated
with ‘law and order’, as defined by the military government. There were honourable exceptions, of
course, but all too often the police acted as if they were not subject to the laws they were charged to
uphold. If officials cannot change and embrace the new paradigm, or are seen to be irretrievably
linked to the old regime, then they will need to be replaced. A more modern and effective police
force will be rendered impotent, for example, if prosecutors, judges, and prison governors fail in their
responsibilities. There needs to be a clear break with the past.
Since 2011, several foreign governments, international institutions and private foundations have
approached Naypyidaw with offers of help in this area. While most cite the president’s speeches and
refer to broad ‘rule of law’ issues, a number seem to envisage direct assistance to the MPF. The
ability of foreigners to reform Myanmar’s police force, however, is limited. They can provide
specialised instruction, technical assistance and modern equipment. They can advise on concepts like
rights‐based and community policing. This should lift the MPF’s ability to perform its basic functions,
enhance its capacity to control crime and disorder, and develop democratic policing models.
However, fundamental reform of the MPF will depend on sustained support from Naypyidaw, a
paradigm shift in the force’s professional culture and the development of a relationship of trust with
the community. These are matters which can only be dealt with by the Burmese themselves.
Over the past decade, a broad consensus has developed at the international level on what
democratic policing looks like. Analysts have identified seven basic principles: that the police force
operates in accordance with the law, is regulated by a professional code of conduct, protects life by
minimising the use of force, is accountable to the public, protects life and property through
pro‐active crime prevention, safeguards human rights and dignity, and acts in non discriminatory
manner. These seven principles can be condensed to just three: the police force must adhere to
international standards of human rights, it must maintain effective internal and external
accountability, and develop a partnership with local communities to achieve public safety. Measured
against all these benchmarks, Myanmar has made some progress since the late 1990s, and perhaps
even since the advent of a new government in 2011, but it still has a long way to go.
Should the MPF be able to reinvent itself, however, it has the potential to make a major contribution
to President Thein Sein’s reform program and the development of a more democratic, prosperous
and humane society in Myanmar. Also, as an important civilian body answerable to the public
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through an ‘elected’ government, its behaviour — and treatment by the government — will be
important indicators of progress in current attempts to implement the rule of law in Myanmar and
make the security forces more accountable for their actions. These are all matters which will be
watched closely, both by the international community and by the Burmese people themselves.
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The Prospects of Myanmar’s Economic Reform and Development
Song Qingrun
China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations
The Imperative of Myanmar’s New Round of Economic Reform
Long period of extreme poorness of the country and people is the main driving force to push the new
government to undertake new round of economic reform. Myanmar is country full of natural
resources. But, it has been one of the poorest countries since 1987.
The urgency of the new round of economic reforms. The Thein Sein government put the political
reform as its priority,especially during the first year of the new government, it paid not much
attention to the economic reform and development. Later, the top official realized that lagging
economic reform would damage the political reform.
The turmoil situation in Arab world in the past two years has shocked the Myanmar authority and
pressed them to accelerate the economic reform, because the main reason of the so called Arab
Spring is the high rate of unemployment of the young people.
The Measures of Myanmar’s New Government Economic Reform since 2011
After more than one year of political reform, the Thein Sein government pushed the second phase of
reform‐economic reform.
First, the government set the scientific plan and ambitious aim of the economic reform for the
following years, which will guide and drive the reform process. President Thein Sein said that, one of
Myanmar’s economic objectives “Development of agriculture as the base and all‐round development
of other sectors of the economy as well” has been replaced with “Building of modern industrialized
nation through the agricultural development, and all‐round development of other sectors of the
economy”.51
Second, quite different from the former junta government, one of the fundamental goals of the
Thein Sein government’s economic reform is to improve the common people’s wellbeing, and it pays
much attention to the rural development and poverty alleviation.
Third, the parliament and government has amended some out‐dated economic laws or promulgates
a series of new laws, which has helped the country to improve the invest environment and boost the
economic development. The new laws have facilitate the investment and take more preferential
measures the investors to attract investment.
51“The speech delivered by President U Thein Sein at the National Workshop on Reforms for National Economic Development”, Myanmar
President Office, August 19, 2011, http://www.president‐office.gov.mm/en/briefing‐room/speeches‐and‐remarks/2011/08/19/id‐210.
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Fourth, Myanmar has reshuffled several economic governing organizations, set up several new
service organizations, eliminate the conservative officials, and put the reformer to the important
positions. All the above mentioned measures have consolidated the reformers’ status in the
government, unified and strengthened the all the government officials’ thoughts about reform, then
to improve the officials’ consciousness and efficiency of serving for the investors. For example, in
January, 2013, Myanmar government has formed a central committee for further development of
small and medium‐ sized enterprises (SME), pivotal for national economy and promotion of
social‐economic status of the people. The 27‐member central committee for SME development is
chaired by President U Thein Sein, also involving two Vice Presidents Dr. Sai Mauk Kham and U Nyan
Tun and 20 ministers.52
Fifth, the government strongly pushes the privation of the state owned enterprises, loosen the state
control towards the sectors of the telecommunication, energy, finance and other fields, and then let
the private capital and foreign capital to operate in the above‐mentioned fields. Some state‐owned
enterprises will be changed into corporation and some into private sector with the aim of boosting
the private sector, the government wants to create a suitable environment for the private sector in
the reform process, then to put more dynamic into the economy.
Sixth, the government takes the full advantage of the wisdom of the domestic and international
experts or institutions. On April 11, 2011, President Thein Sein set up the Economic Advisory Unit
lead by Dr. U Myint, and the advisors can directly submit the economic reform advice to President
Thein Sein. Myanmar has held several big workshops concerning the Rural Development and Poverty
Alleviation, the reform of bank and capital market, and it has held the Myanmar Investment Summit
every year. The Myanmar government has invited many international scholars, experts and investors
to attend the workshops and Summit, and it has even employed several U.S. and EU experts to help
push the economic reform. With the help of the IMF experts, on April 1, 2012, Myanmar ended the
parallel market currency exchange rate system which had lasted for more then 20 years, and
Myanmar’s central bank set a reference exchange rate of 818 kyat per dollar (basically according to
the black market range of 800 to 820 kyat per dollar, which is already used for most transactions in
the country) used for most everyday transactions. Besides these measures, the Myanmar banks has
joined Visa ATM network, and they begun to introduce the electronic transaction such as ATM and
E‐commerce, then they has begun to conduct international credit cards transactions.
Seventh, President Thein Sein has undertaken economic and political reforms that have persuaded
Western countries to suspend even get rid of most of the sanctions. And the Myanmar government
makes great efforts to attract the FDI from the ASEAN, U.S., EU, Japan, China, India, South Korea and
other countries. Myanmar is seriously short of capital and techniques to develop the economy,
because it has large amount of debt and was given heavy economic sanctions for more than 20 years.
The Prospects of Myanmar’s Economic Reform: Asia’s Next Rising Star?
On August 20, 2012, the Asian Development Bank released a study report, Myanmar in Transition:
Opportunities and Challenges. The reported pointed out that, Myanmar could follow Asia’s fast
52“SMEs lie at the core of national economic growth in developing countries and some developed countries: President U Thein Sein,” The
New Light of Myanmar, January 12, 2013.
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growing economies and expand at 7% to 8% a year, become a middle income nation, and triple per
capita income by 2030 if it can surmount substantial development challenges by further
implementing across‐the‐board reforms. Stephen Groff, ADB’s Vice President for East Asia, Southeast
Asia and the Pacific, said that, “Myanmar could be Asia’s next rising star, but for this to happen there
needs to be a firm and lasting commitment to reform .”53 Also in May, 2013, the IMF said in a
statement that, Myanmar reforms bearing fruit, and its economic growth to gain momentum, and
Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow 6.75 percent in fiscal year of 2013, ending March 2014,
somewhat accelerating from an estimated 6.5 percent expansion a year earlier.54
Myanmar’s economy has the several advantages to take off in the future.
First, the country is on the track of quick reform and development, and it has great potential in the
economic development, because almost every sector of the agriculture and industry need
development and investment, and Myanmar has more than 60 million people and it has potential
consumption ability.
Second, Myanmar’s economic reform and development gets a lot of support from the international
society. The informally‐named Paris Club, a group representing 19 major world economies, has
forgiven $6 billion of Myanmar’s debt in January, 2013, then in May, Japan wrote off nearly
Myanmar’s $2 billion debt and extending new aid of 51.05 billion yen ($504 million). Myanmar has
also get a lot of loans and aids from the international society.
Third, Myanmar is in a good position connecting the business and the interflow of goods and
materials between Southeast Asia and South Asia, and Myanmar is building the several economic
zones will help Myanmar to become a center of products and logistics in the region, such as Dawei in
Myanmar‐Thailand border area, Kyauk Phyu near the coast of India Ocean, and Thilawa near Yangon
Port off the Andaman Sea. These special economic zones will better bring the geographical
advantages into play and boost its development. And there are rich natural resources in Myanmar.
The future of Myanmar’s economic reform and development seems bright. But, its reform and
developing process will be an arduous one full of challenges.
First, until now, many international investors suspect the future of new round of reform. According to
the Corruption index 2012 from Transparency International, Myanmar was a still one of the most
corrupted countries in the world, which was a big obstacle to the economic reform and
development.55 The Wall Street Journal’s article pointed out that, Myanmar has only just cracked
open to Western investors after a junta government stepped down in 2011, and the private‐equity
firms are divided over whether Myanmar will be a source of huge profits, or just another place to
endure losses.56
53“Myanmar Will Be Middle Income Nation If Reforms Stay on Track – Report,” Asian Development Bank, August 20, 2012,
http://www.adb.org/news/myanmar‐will‐be‐middle‐income‐nation‐if‐reforms‐stay‐track‐report. 54
“Myanmar reforms bearing fruit, economic growth to gain momentum: IMF,” Kyodo News International, May 22, 2013,http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/kyodo‐news‐international/130522/myanmar‐reforms‐bearing‐fruit‐economic‐growth‐gain‐mom. 55“Corruption index 2012 from Transparency International: find out how countries compare,” Guardian, December 5, 2012,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/dec/05/corruption‐index‐2012‐transparency‐international. 56“Myanmar:Gold Mine Or Sinkhole?”, The Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2012.
103
Second, the outdated economic, especially financial system issue will be the big obstacles for the
economic reform.
Third, the dilapidated infrastructure including hard and soft ware in the whole country is another big
and long‐term barrier to the economic reform and development.
Fourth, short of sufficient domestic and foreign investment restricts the reform and development.
Fifth, in the economic reform process, whether Myanmar’s national industry will become stronger or
defeated by foreign companies? Most of Myanmar’s local companies are middle and small sized ones,
even there are several big enterprises, and their technology, management, and operation lag far
behind the international level. Facing more and more powerful international companies, what’s the
destiny of Myanmar’s national companies? How to make the local and international companies to
compete or cooperate harmoniously? Then to make them develop simultaneously?
Internationally, the western investors don’t have enough capital to invest in Myanmar, and the
western market consumption capacity is relatively low. This bad situation means that the western
investment and market can’t play great contributing role in Myanmar’s economic development.
Short Conclusion
Myanmar’s economic reform will boost the country’s development and improve the mass people’s
well‐being. The country’s development has great advantages and bright future. But, Myanmar also
should notice the challenges and carefully overcome the difficulties ahead.
အဘားမားအစးရ၏ ျမနမာႏငငဆ ငရာ မ၀ါဒက ခနည ျခငး- ျမနမာႏငငတ ြင ဒမကေရစ တးျမငေရးေလာ၊ တ႐တက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ေရးေလာ
The Obama Administration’s Myanmar Policies Adjustment: Promoting Democracy in Myanmar or
Containing China?
Li Chenyang Center for Myanmar Studies, Yunnan University
အဘားမားအစးရ၏ အာရ-ပစဖတေဒသ ခနခြငလ ာျပနညေရး မဟာဗဟာ၏ ရညရြယရငး- တ႐တက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ေရး ဟတသေလာ၊ မဟတသေလာ အာရ-ပစဖတေဒသတြင ဗလကစးမႈမႈႏင လႊမးမးႀကးစးမႈဆကလကထနးထားႏငေရးသည အဘားမားအစးရ၏ ခနခြငလာ ျပနလညထနးညႇေရး၏ ေသာခကကေသာ ရညရြယရငးျဖစသည။ အေမရကနသည တ႐တကသာလငမဟတ ယငးေဒသတြင ၄ငး၏ ဗလကစးမးမႈက စနေခၚႏငမည မညသ႔ေသာ အဓကအငအားႀကးႏငငကမဆ ၀နးရပတဆ႔သြား လမမညျဖစသည။ ဆယစႏစသးခၾကာ အလငအျမနဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈျဖစထြနးခၿပးေနာက တ႐တႏငသည ထြနးသစလာခသည။ တ႐တအား ၀နးရပတ ဆ႔ေရး မဟာဗဟာက အေမရကနက ယခအခနအထ ထတထားၿပးဖြယမရေသး ေသာလညး အထးသျဖင ၂၀၀၉ ခႏစကတညးက မားစြာေသာလပေဆာငမႈမားက ျပလပခၿပးျဖစသည။ အဘားမားအစးရ၏ တ႐တႏငငဆငရာမ၀ါဒသည ပတဆ႔၀နးရေရးေအာကတြင ထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရး ျဖစသညဟ EAI, NUS ၏ ဒါ႐ကတာျဖစသ ပါေမာကၡ Zheng Yongnin က ေထာကျပခသည။ အေမရကနသည တင၀မအေရးကစၥက ၂၀၀၈ ခႏစက အသးျပခၿပး ယခအခနတြင တ႐တ၏ တဗကႏင ရငကနးအေရးမားတြင ၀ငေရာကစြကဖကမႈမားေၾကာင တ႐တအေပၚ အေမရကန၏ ၀နးရပတဆ႔ေရးလပ ေဆာငခကမားက အထငးသားေတြ႕ျမငေနရသညဟ Brookings Institution တြင သေတသန Fellow ေဟာငးတစဥးျဖစ ခသ NUS ပါေမာကၡ Huang Jin ကလညး ယဆသည။ ထစဥ အေမရကနသည တ႐တႏငငအားဆန႔ကငရန တ႐တ၏ အမနးခငးႏငငမားကလညး ေသြးထးေပးခသည။ တ႐တ-အေမရကန အေဆာကအအဆငရာ ၀ေရာဓႏင ႀကးထြားလာေသာ တ႐တအငအားတ႔ေၾကာင အဘားမားအစးရ၏ တ႐တႏငငဆငရာ မ၀ါဒသည အေမရကနစးမးထားေသာ ႏငငတကာစနစအတြငးသ႔ တ႐တအားဆြသြငးၿပး တ႐တ၏ ၿငမး ခမးစြာ အဆငဆငေျပာငးလျခငးရရေရးက ကငသးေတာမညမဟတဘ စစေရးမဟတေစေသာ နညးလမးမားက အဓက အသးျပကာ တ႐တ၏ထြနးေတာကလာမႈက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ေရးသာ ျဖစေတာမည။ ႏငငတကာစညးမဥး စညးကမးမားႏင ႏငငေရးတနဖးမားက အသးျပၿပး တ႐တ၏ ႏငငတကာပရပက ပကစးေစရနႏင တ႐တ၏ ႏငငတကာ ေနရာက ကန႔သတရန ယငးသ႔ေသာ စညးမဥးစညးကမးမားက အနကေကာကျခငးျဖင အေမရကနသည လႊမးမးမႈမားက အျပည အ၀အသးျပခသည။ ယငး၏ ဒမကေရစအားသာခကမား ျမနမာအမးသားေရးစတဓာတမားႏင CSR,EIA ႏင SIA သေဘာ တရားမားက အသးျပျခငးျဖင တ႐တ-ျမနမာ ဆကဆေရးတြင ျမနမာႏငငရ တ႐တ၏ အေထာကအပမားႏင ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ မားက ျပငးထနေသာ အေႏာကအယကအဆးအတားမားျဖစေစရန အေမရကနကေအာငျမငစြာ ျပလပႏငခသည အခ႕ ေသာ အေမရကန NGO မားသည ျမစဆဆညစမကနးက ဆန႔ကငသည လႈပရားမႈမားက
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ပါ၀ငပတသကခသညက မားစြာ ေသာသကေသအေထာကအထားမားက ျပသခၾကသည။ ကခငျပညနယရ ပဋပကၡညႇႏႈငးေဆာငရြကျခငးႏင ေစစပညႇႏႈငး ေရးတြင အေမရကန၏ အားေကာငးေသာစတ၀ငစားမႈမားသညလညး တ႐တအေပၚအေမရကန၏၀နးရပတဆ႔ေရးလႈပရားမႈ၏ ဥပမာေကာငးတစခလညးျဖစသည။ လြနခသည ဆယစႏစႏစခအတြငး ျမနမာဆကဆေရးတြင မမတ႔၏ သတမနေရး ရာဆကဆေရးခၽြတေခာမႈမားကလညး တ႐တကနားလညသေဘာေပါကရနလအပသည တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ သာမနျပညသမားအေပၚလေလာကေသာ အာ႐စကမႈမရခဘ ျမနမာစစအစးရႏငဆကဆေရးကသာ တညေဆာကခသည။ သဘာ၀အရငးအျမစ ထတယေရးကသာ အမားအားျဖင အာ႐စကခေသာစးပြားေရးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈတြင လမႈေရးတာ ၀န၀တရားမားက အားနညးခသည။ ေဒသခမား၏ အသကေမြး၀မးေကာငးတးတကရန လေလာကေသာ ကညေပးျခငးမရ ခေပ။ ယငးသ႔ေသာ လစဟာမႈမားေၾကာင အေမရကနအေပၚအေကာငးျမငစရာျဖစခသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင တ႐တသည မမ၏မ၀ါဒမားက ခနညႇရန ႏင တ႐တကမၸဏမားႏင ျမနမာႏငငသားမား၏ အျပအမႈမားက တးတကေအာငျပလပရန လအပသည။ ဒမကေရစျမႇငတငေရးသည ျမနမာႏငငေပၚ ထားရသည အဘားမားအစးရ၏ ခနည ႇေရးအေျခခပနးတင တစခေလာ အေမရကနျပညသမားစမာဒမကေရစႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးက ေလးစားၾကသျဖင ဒမကေရစ တနဖးမားႏင ႏငငေရးစနစ က ျမႇငတငျခငးသည အေမရကန၏ အဓက ႏငငျခားေရးမဟာဗဟာရညမနးခကသးခအနကမ တစချဖစသည။ ေတာင အာဖရကတြင အသားေရာငခြျခားမႈ အဆးသတသြားၿပးေနာက အေမရကန၏ ဒမကေရစတငပ႔ျခငးသည အျခားႏငငမား၏ ျပညတြငးေရးတြင ၀ငေရာကစြပဖကရနမသာမဟတေတာဘ ဒမကေရစတငပ႔ျခငးက အေရးႀကးသည ရညမနးခကတစရပ အျဖစလညး ျဖစလာခသည ယငးသည ျပညတြငးႏငငေရးႏင အေမရကနႏငငျခားဆကဆေရး၏ လအပခကႏင ကကည ရနျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာအမးသားအကးစးပြားရာေဖြျခငးႏင ဒမကေရစ ျမႇငတငျခငး ပြတတကမႈျဖစလင အေမရကနအစးရ သည အမးသားအကးစးပြားအတြက ဒမကေရစႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးကာကြယျခငးက စြန႔လြတမညမာ ယမားသသယရဖြယ ရာအေၾကာငးမျမငေပ။ ထငးႏငငႏင ပါကစၥတနႏငငတ႔တြငလညး ကာလၾကာရည စစအပခပမႈရခၿပး ထငးႏငငတြင ၂၀၁၆ ခႏစကစစတပ အာဏာသမးမႈတစချဖစပြားခသည။ သ႔ေသာ အေမရကနသည ပါကစၥတနအေပၚ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈျပလပချခငးမရသလ ထငးႏငငႏငလညး ၎၏ ပးတြစစေရးေလကငမႈမားက မညသညအခါမ ရပတန႔ချခငးမရေပ။ ထ႔ေၾကာင အေမရကန သည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚခမတထားသည အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားက အဘယေၾကာင မ႐ပသမးႏငရသနညးဟ အခ႕ေသာ ပညာရငမားက ေမးခြနးထတၾကသည။ အေမရကနသည ႏစေပါငး(၃၀)ၾကာ အာဏာရယထားသည အဂစသမၼတေဟာငး မဘာရတအေပၚမညသညအခါကမ မ႐ႈတခခသညအျပင သသားျဖစသကလညး သ၏ေနရာက ဆကခရန ႀကးပမးမႈျပ လပခသည။ ေဆာဒအာေရဘးယား၊ က၀တနင ဘ႐ႏငးတ႔သည အလးစသကဥးစပငဘရငစနစက ကငသးသညႏငငမား ျဖစေသာလညး အေမရကနအစးရသည အဆပါေခါငးေဆာငမားက ဒမကေရစ အသြငးကးေျပာငးမႈျပလပရန မညသည အခါကမ ဖအားမေပးခသလ ယငးတ႔သည အေမရကန၏ အမးသားအကးစးပြားအတြက မ႑တငကေသာေနရာမားတြင ရခသည။
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ဒမကေရစသညလသားမားအတြက အေကာငးဆး ႏငငေရး စနစျဖစေသာလညး ယငးစနစသည အနတတနးခးရငမဟတ သလ ႏငငတစခခတြင အခနတအတြငး ႐ႈပေထြးေပြလေသာ ျပနာရပအားလးက ေျဖရငးႏငမညမဟတေပ။ ဖလစပင ႏငငသည အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြင အေမရကန၏ မဟာမတႏငငတစချဖစေသာလညး လြတလပေရးရၿပးေနာကေကာငးမြန ေသာအပခပမႈမရခဘ လကရအခနတြင က႐ႈးႏငငျဖစလနးပါအေျခအေနသ႔ေရာကရေနသည။ ႀကးမားေသာႏငငတစႏငင ၏တာ၀န၀တရားအျဖစ အေမရကနသည ဒမကေရစအသြငးကးေျပာငးမႈက တးျမႇငေစရနသာမက ဖလစပငႏင ျမနမာႏငင တ႔အား အပခပေရးစြမးအား ႏင စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈတးျမႇငရနအတြကလညး အကအညေပးရနလအပသည။ ဤအပငးတြင အေမရကနသညေကာငးစြာေဖာေဆာငႏငချခငးမရဟ ပညာရငမားက ယဆၾကသည။ အေမရကနမ၀ါဒထနးညႇမႈ၏ ထေရာကႏငစြမးက ျမနမာျပညသမား အကျဖတရမညျဖစသလ ပညာရပဆငရာ အကျဖတမႈမားကလညး ထညသြငး တြကခကရမညျဖစသည။ ၂၀၀၉ခႏစတြင အဘားမားအစးရ တကလာၿပးေနာက တ႐တ၏ စနးထလာျခငးက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ရနအလငာ တ႐တ-ျမနမာ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈက အတားအဆးျဖစေစရနျမနမာႏငငတြင ၎၏ အဓကရညမနးခကက ခနညႇခသည။ အေမရကန- ျမနမာဆကဆေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈသည တ႐တက ရညရြယျခငးမဟတဟ ၎က ေၾကညာခေသာလညး တ႐တျပညသမားအတြက မယႏငဖြယရာမရေပ။ အဘာမားအစးရသည ျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ မ၀ါဒမား၏ ယတကေသာဆကဆေရး-၁၉၈၈ခႏစကတညးက တ႐တသည ျမနမာျပညသမားႏင ေကာငးမြနေသာ ဆကဆေရးက ထနးသမးထားျခငးမရခေပ။ ဒမကရကတစအစးရသည ျပညသမား ၏ ဆႏၵက ေလးစားရမညျဖစေသာလညး ျမနမာႏငငတြင ဒမကေရစအသြငးကးေျပာငးမႈျဖစေပၚၿပးေနာက တ႐တႏငျမနမာ ၾကားမားစြာေသာ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရးစမကနးမားက ေခာမြတစြာ အေကာငအထညမေဖာႏငခေပ။ ျမစဆဆည၊ လကပေတာငးေတာငေၾကးနတးေဖာေရးႏင တ႐တ-ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးတ႔သည အေမရကနလႈပရားမႈ၏ ပစမတ မားျဖစၾကသည။ အေမရကနမ၀ါဒခနည ႇျခငးအေပၚျမနမာ၏ တ႔ျပနမႈ အေမရကနမ၀ါဒ ခနညႇမႈအေပၚျမနမာလအဖြ႕အစညးက အမးမးေသာ တ႔ျပနမႈမားေပးခၾကသည။ အေမရကနသည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အာ႐စကမႈမားပမေပးႏငသညဟ ျမနမာျပညသ႔အခ႕က ေမာလငၾကသည။ ဥပမာ အားျဖင ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစ၊ ႏ၀ငဘာ၊ (၁၅)ရကေန႔တြင ၀ါရငတနပ႔စသတငးစာ၌ (အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြငျမနမာႏငငႏင ၀ါရငတန၏ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကေရြးခယမႈအသစ)ဟ ေခါငးစဥျဖင ျမနမာအစးရအရာရတစဥးျဖစသ ေဇာေဌးကေရးသားခသည ေဆာငး ပါးျဖစသည။ အဆပါေဆာငးပါးတြင “အေနာကကမ ၻာကနားလညရမညမာ ယေန႔ေခတ ပထ၀ႏငငေရးအေျခအေန အထး သျဖင ျမနမာႏငငက လအပေနေသာ တ႐တ၏ ဆနးထလာမႈပငျဖစသည။ ယခကသ႔ အေရးတစႀကးျဖစေနသညကာလတြင ျပငပကမ ၻာႏငျမနမာႏငင၏ အခတအဆကက ျဖစထြနးေစရန ၀ါရငတနႏင အျခားအစးရမားက ကညရမညျဖစသည။ ေပကငး က ေကာေထာကေနာကချပထားေသာ ျမစဆဆညက ကၽြနေတာတ႔သမၼတႀကးက ရပတန႔ထားျခငးသည သ၏ရပတည ခကက ကမ ၻာအား အခကျပလကျခငးျဖစသည။ အကယ၍ အေမရကနျပညေထာငစ ယငးအခြငအေရးက မကကြယျပခ လင ၀ါရငတနသည အငဒခငးနားေဒသတြင အခငးအကငးအသစမကငးကြာသြားလမမညျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာ အခ႕ေသာ ျမနမာျပညသမားက အေမရကနအေပၚေစာဒကတကၾကသည။ ဥပမာအားျဖင
106
အခ႕ေသာ ျမနမာ အထကတနးလႊာမားက ေျပာၾကသညမာျမနမာႏငငက မားစြာ လပေဆာငခၿပး အေမရကန၏ တ႔ျပနမႈမားကမ နညးေသးသည ဟ၍ျဖစသည။ျမနမာႏငငသည အာဖဂနႏငငထက ပမေကာငးမြနစြာ လပေဆာငခၿပးေသာလညး အာဖဂနႏငငသ႔မ ႏစစဥ ေဒၚလာဘလယေပါငးမားစြာ ရေသာ အကအညမားက အေမရကနက ေထာကပေပးေနၿပးျမနမာႏငငအေပၚမ ေငြေၾကးေထာက ပမႈမားမေပးဘ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားသာ ျပလပခသညအတြက ယငးတ႔က အေမရကန၏ လပေဆာငမႈႏင တ႔ျပနမႈမားက အားမရၾကေပ။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ ႏငငတကာဆကဆေရးအတြက အႏၵယႏင တ႐တတ႔သည အေရးႀကးေသာ မတဖကမားျဖစၾကသညဟ ေနျပညေတာအေျခစက ေနာကထပအရာရတစဥးက ေထာကျပခသည။ အေမရကနသည ျမနမာႏငငက မည သညဒကၡမ ေပးႏငလမမညမဟတဟ သကေမာလငသည။ ၂၀၁၂ စကတငဘာတြင ထတျပနခသည CSIS ျမနမာခရးစဥ အစရငခစာအရ အခ႕ေသာ ျမနမာအထကတနးလႊာမားက တ႐တႏငအေမရကနၾကား ခနခြငလာညႇရန ႀကးစားေနၾကသညဟဆသည။ (ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးကျပလပရနႀကေဆာင သည ျမနမာစစေခါငးေဆာငမားက တ႐တအေပၚျမနမာအစးရ မခေနရျခငးက ပဓာနကေသာ အားေပးလႈ႕ေဆာ သအျဖစ ပႀကးခေဖာျပခပရသညဟ ကယကယျပန႔ျပန႔ယၾကညၾကသည။ တကယတနးတြငမ အပစ၏ ၾကားခသမားမားက တ႐တ အခနးက႑က အစဥအလာ အမနးခငးႏငငအျဖစသာ အေလးထားၿပး တ႐တႏငပတသကေသာအေပါငးသည ရလဒထြက ေပၚေစ မည မ၀ါဒမားက အေမရကနျပညေထာငစက ေရာငရားေစလၾကသည။ စစအစးရခမတခသည ဆယစႏစမား အတြငး ျမနမာႏငကနသြယေရး၊ စစလကနကပစၥညးမားေရာငးခမႈ ႏင ႏငငေရးဆငရာ ဆကဆေရးအေပၚတြင ကာလၾကာ ရညစြာ တ႐တကအားလးနးပါး အပစညးထားမႈက ေပးထားခကအျဖစ ဆကလကထားရသည။ အေမရကနျပညေထာငစ ႏင ျမနမာႏငငတ႔၏ လငျမနစြာ ေႏြးေထြးလာေသာ ဆကဆေရးတ႔သည တ႐တတြငသသယ၀ငစရာမား ျဖစေပၚေနေစၿပး အေမရကနျပညေထာငစ၏ ၀နရပတဆ႔ေရးအားထတမႈမားအေပၚ ေၾကာကရြ႕စးထပမႈမား႐တတရတ ေပၚေပါကလာေစ သည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေမရကန၏ ခညးကပမႈႏငပတသက၍ တ႐တႏင ႀကတငတငပငေဆြးေႏြးျခငး၊ မ၀ါဒတစခ သည တ႐တက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ရနျမနမာႏငငအား အေမရကနျပညေထာငစအား အသးျပေနသညဆေသာေပကငးပပနမႈမား ေလာပါးေစရန အေထာကအကျဖစေစသည။ ျမနမာ-အေမရကန ဆကဆေရးဖြ႕ၿဖ းတးတကမႈအေပၚ တ႐တ၏သေဘာထား-တ႐တပညာရငတစ ေယာက၏ ႐ႈေထာင အျခားႏငငမားႏင ဆကဆေရးထေထာငရနျမနမာႏငင၏ အခြငအေရးက ႏငငအားလး ေလးစားရမည။ ျမနမာနငငေရး အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈက အေမရကနထမ အသအမတျပျခငးႏင ၎၏စးပြားေရး အေထာကအပမားသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ ေခတမ ေရးျဖစစဥအတြက ႀကးစြားေသာ အကးျဖစထြနးလမမညက တ႐တပညာရငမားက အျပညအ၀နားလညသေဘာေပါကၾက သည။ ျမနမာႏငငႏင ေကာငးမြနေသာ ဆကဆေရးက ထနးသမးထားရန အေမရကနတြငလညး အခြငအေရးရသည။ ယငးက တ႐တကလညး အၿမတမးအေထာကအပျပခသည။ ၂၀၀၇ ခႏစဇြနလတြင ေပကငး၌ ျမနမာ၀နႀကးမားႏင အေမရကန အရာရမား၏ လ႕၀ကအစညးအေ၀းတစခက တ႐တက လကခကငးပေပးခသည။ ၂၀၀၈နာဂစဆကကလနးမနတငးၿပး ေနာက ရနကနေလဆပသ႔ ကပေဘးေထာကပေရးပစၥညးမား အေမရကနစစဘကေလယာဥမားျဖင ပ႔ေဆာငႏငေအာင ျမနမာစစအစးရႏင အေမရကနတ႔အားတ႐တက ညႇႏႈငးေဆာငရြကေပးခသည။ သ႔ေသာ အမးသားအကးစးပြားကလညး အေမရကနႏင ျမနမာႏငငတ႔ကေလးစားရမညျဖစသည။
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တ႐တျမနမာ နယျခားေဒသ တညၿငမေရးႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးႏင ျမနမာရ တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအားလးတ႔သည အပကအစးမခႏငသည တ႐တ၏အမးသား အကးစးပြားမားျဖစၾကသည။ ကအေၾကာငးမလစြာျဖင ျမနမာႏငငတြင အေမရကန၏လပရပမားေၾကာင ယငးတ႔အေပၚ သကေရာကမႈမားျဖစေပၚခသည။ နဂး တ႐တႏငအေမရကနတ႔သည ျမနမာႏငငတြင ၿပငဆငမႈမားရေသာလညး ႏစဖကစလးက ျမနမာႏငင၏အခပအျခာ အာဏာ ႏင တရားေရးဆငရာ အခြငအေရးမားက ေလးစားရမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာျပညသတ႔အား ယငးတ႔၏ဆႏၵႏင ဆန႔ကငၿပး တစစတစခက ျပလပရန မညသတစဥးတစေယာကကမ ဖအားေပးျခငးမျပလပရ၊ ယေန႔ကာလသည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ ခမတထားသည အေမရကန၏ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈအားလးက ဖယရားပစရမည အသငေတာဆးအခနျဖစသည။ ေခတမေရးျဖစစဥတစခအတြက တညၿငမၿပး ဟနခကညေသာ ပတ၀နးကငတစခ တ႐တက လအပသည။ အေမရကန သည အားထားေလာကသည မတဖကႏငငတစႏငငမဟတေသာေၾကာင တ႐တသညအာရတြင အမနးခငးႏငငမား အာ႐ စကမႈ ပေပးရန လအပၿပး အမနးခငးႏငငေရးက ဆကဆေရးက လြတလပစြာတညေဆာကရမညျဖစသည။ မညသ႔ပငျဖစ ေစ အေမရကနသည ျမနမာႏငင (သ႔)အျခားေဒသမားတြင တ႐တႏင အေပါငးရလဒ သညထြကေသာ ကစားပြက ကစားလမ မညမဟတဟ ကၽြႏပတ႔ေမာလငပါသည။
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ၿငမးခမးေရး တညေဆာကမႈျဖစစဥတြင အပခပမႈႏင တရား၀ငျဖစမႈတ႕၏အခနးက႑
Governance and Legitimacy in the Peace Process
Ashley South Senior Adviser ‐ Myanmar Peace Support Initiative
Ph.D. Candidate ‐ Australian National University [email protected]
အခြငအလမးမားႏင ႀကေတြ႕ရဖြယရသည အႏရာယမား
• ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစ ေႏာငးပငးတြင ျမနမာႏငင၌ ထြကေပၚခသည ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥသည လြတလပေရးရၿပး
ကတညးက လကနကကငပဋပကၡမားျဖစပြားခရသည ႏငငေရး၊ လမႈေရး၊ စးပြားေရးႏင ယဥေကးမႈ ဆငရာ ကစၥရပမားက ေျဖရငးရန ဆယစႏစေပါငးမားစြာအတြငး အေကာငးဆးအခြငအလမးျဖစသည။
• မၾကာေသးမက အစးရႏင ကခငလြတေျမာကေရးအဖြ႕(KIO) ၾကား တကပြမားရပနားသြားျခငးသည
အစးရႏင ကနဥးအပစအခတရပစေရး သေဘာတခၿပးျဖစသည အဓကေသာ အစးရမဟတသည လကနက ကင အပစ Non State Armed Group (NSAG) မား အားလး အတြက ပထမဆးေသာ အလားအလာျဖစသည။
• သ႔ေသာလညး အေရးႀကးသညကစၥရပအေတာမားမားက မေျဖရငးရေသးေပ။ ယငးကစၥမားက
မေျဖရငးလင ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥသည ေအာငျမငႏငဖြယမရေပ။ ေသာခကကေသာ သကဆငသမားၾကား ရညလားေသာ သမငးတစေလာက မယၾကညမႈမားရချခငးေၾကာင ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥသည ခကခလမမည ျဖစသည။
အပစအခတရပစမႈမား • ပဋပကၡအကးဆကမားက ခစားရသည ေနရာမားတြင ေနထငၾကသမားသည NSAG မားၾကား
အပစအခတရပစမႈမားမ အကးအျမတမားရခသည။ အေၾကာကတရား ေလာကျခငး၊ အသကေမြး၀မးေၾကာငး ေရြးခယစရာမား ပမတးတကလာျခငးႏင ခရးသြား ျခငးအတြက ပမေကာငးမြနေသာ အခြငအလမးမား။
• ပဋပကၡအကးဆကမားက ခစားရသည ရပရြာမား၏ အဓကကေသာ ပပနမႈမာ ႐ပပငးဆငရာ လၿခေရး
ျဖစသည။
• မားစြာေသာ တငးရငးသားရပရြာမားတြင စစထဆြသြငးခရမႈ မားစြာဆကလက ရင ဆငရဖြယရသည။ အကယ၍ ျမနမာစစတပႏင NSAG မားက ရပရြာမားက ၿခမးေျခာကမႈအျဖစ မတယၿပး မဟာဗဟာေျမာကမဟတေသာ အခ႕ေနရာမားမ ဆတခြာႏငမညဆလင သကဆငသတငးရငးသား မားႏင ယၾကညမႈတးျမငရန အေထာကအကျဖစေစမည။
109
• ကနဥး အပစအခတရပစေရးမားသည တပေနရာခထားျခငးႏင လကနကကငတပဖြ႕မား၏ အျပအမ
(အပစအခတရပစေရး ကင၀တ) မားႏငပကသကေသာ ခငမာသည သေဘာတညခကမားႏငအတ ေရရညခငမာ ရန လအပသည။
• အပစအခတရပရပစေရး ေစာငၾကညစစေဆးျခငးအတြက လအပခက။
• လတတေလာျဖစပြားေနသည အဓကကေသာ ႏစဖကၾကားတကပြမား (ဥပမာ- ရမးျပညနယ) ႏငပကသက ေသာ အလြနတရာ စးရမပပနမႈမား။ ျမနမာစစတပသည အစးရ၏ ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥအတငး လကေန သေလာ သ႔မဟတ အစးရႏင စစတပတစေယာကတစမးျဖစေနသေလာဆသညႏငပကသကသည ေမးခြနးမား။
ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥမား
• ျမနမာႏငငတြငျဖစပြားေနေသာ လကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားႏင ႏငငေတာတ႔ၾကား ပဋပကၡမားမ ေပၚထြနးခသည ကာလရည ႏငငေရးကစၥရပမားကေဆြးေႏြးရန၊ ကနဥးအပစအခတရပစေရး သေဘာတညခကမ ေရႊ႕ရနလ အပသည။ ႏငငေရး ေစစပညႏႈငးမႈမားက ျပလပရန အစးရက မအားျဖင သေဘာတထားခေသာလညး ယခ အခနအထ စတငျခငး မရေသးေပ။ ၂၀၁၅ ေရြးေကာကပြမားသည တျဖညးျဖညးနးကပလာၿပျဖစသည။
• တငရငးသားသကဆငသမား (NSAG မား၊ ႏငငေရးပါတမား၊ အရပဘက အဖြ႕အစညးမား) သည
ႏငငေရး ေဆြးေႏြးပြမား တြင မမတ႔၏ အသငးအ၀ငးမားက ထေရာကစြာကယစားျပႏငရန မ၀ါဒႏင နညးဗဟာ အဆကအစပ ရေအာင လပေဆာငရန လအပသည။
• ပဋပကၡအကးဆကက ခစားရေသာ ရပရြာမား၊ အရပဖကအဖြ႕အစညး အပစမားႏင ႏငငေရးပါတမား
အပါ အ၀င အဓကသကဆငသမား ပါ၀ငရန လအပသည။ အစးရက ထတျပနေသာ အလပမေဘာင သေဘာတ ညခက (တငးရငးသား ၿငမးခမးေရး အစအစဥ)၏ ႐ႈပေထြးမႈအရဆလင ေထာကပပ႔ေဆာငေရးဆငရာ စနေခၚ မႈတစရပရလမမညျဖစသည။
ထးျခားသည ကစၥရပမား- ပဋပကၡအကးဆကခစားရေသာ ေနရာမားတြင စညးမဥးျဖငထနးခပျခငးမရေသာ စးပြား ေရးလပငနးမား ၀ငေရာကလပကငျခငး၊ ေျမယာသမးမႈ၊ အႀကးစား စမကနးမား
• ပဋပကၡအကးဆကခစားရေသာ ေနရာမားတြင လပကငၾကသည အမားဆးစးပြားေရးလပငနးသစမားမာ သယဇာတ ထတယေရး (သစခတျခငး၊ သတတးေဖာျခငး စသည) လပငနးမားျဖစၾကၿပး ေဒသဆငရာ သ႔မဟတ ႏငငလးဆငရာ အာဏာလက၀ယရသ (ဥပမာ- ျမနမာ စစတပ၊ NSAG) တ႔ႏင ခတဆကေလ ရၾကသည။
• ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥတြင ယၾကညမႈႏင ယၾကညစတခရမႈက ပကဆးေစႏငေသာ
အႏတလကၡဏာေဆာငသည လမႈေရး ႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ သကေရာကမႈမားကသ႔ လပေဆာငမႈမားလညးရသည။
• ၂၀၁၂ လယယာေျမဥပေဒႏင ၂၀၁၂ ခႏစ ေျမလြတေျမ႐ငးဥပေဒတ႔၏ အႏတလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ
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သက ေရာကမႈမား။
• အဓကေသာ အေျခခအေဆာကအအ စမကနးမား (ဥပမာ-ေရအားလပစစ ဆညမား) ႏငပကသကေသာ ပပနမႈမား။
ထးျခားသည ကစၥရပမား-- အပခပမႈ၏ ေဒသႏရ ကယပငအပခပခြငႏင ႏငငေရး
• တငးရငးသားမားေနထငၾကေသာ ေနရာေဒသမားတြင ဗဟခပကငမႈေလာခေရးႏငပကသကေသာ ေစစပည ႏႈငးမႈမားက အစးရက မအရ ျပလပခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ခငမာသညႏငငေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြမားမရသည အတြက ယခအခနအထ တးတကမႈမရေသးေပ။
• အပစအခတရပစေရး ျဖစစဥမားသည ယခငယဥၿပငတကခကေနရေသာ
ပဋပကၡအကးဆကကခစားရသည ေနရာေဒသမားသ႔ အစးရ၏ အာဏာစကက ခ႕ထြငရန တြနးအားေပးမႈတစခသာ ျဖစပရသည။
• ယခငက ရရႏငျခငးမရေသာ ပဋပကၡကးဆကက ခစားရသည ေနရာေဒသမားသ႔ အစးရ၀နေဆာငမႈမား
(ဥပမာ- ကနးမာေရးႏင ပညာေရး၀နေဆာငမႈမားရရမႈ တးျမငျခငး၊ အငဒကတမား ထတေပးျခငး) ခ႕ထြင ျခငးသည ထခကလြယသည လဥးေရအတြက အေပါငးလကၡဏာတစချဖစႏငသည။ သ႔ေသာ ႏငငအား ၿခမး ေျခာကမႈအျဖစ ဆကလကယဆေနၿပး ျမနမာစစတပကလညး အၾကမးဖကျခငးႏင ေခါငးပျဖတသဟ ယဆ ေသာ ေဒသႏရရပရြာမား က ၿခမးေျခာကမႈအျဖစလညး ႐ႈျမငသြားႏငသည။
• ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာအစးရ အာဏာပငႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈေပးျခငး စနစမားတးခ႕ရန အားထတမႈမားက အစးရ
မဟတေသာ လကနကကငအပစမား၊ အကးဆကခစားရေသာ ရပရြာမား၊ အရပဖကအဖြ႕အစညးအပစ မားႏင အနးကပ တငပငေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားျပလပၿပး ေဆာငရြကသငသည။
• ပဋပကၡအကးဆကခစားရေသာ ေနရာေဒသမားစြာတြင ေဒသႏရအဖြ႕အစညးမား (နယျခားျဖတေကာ
လပကငျခငးႏင ျမနမာႏငငတြငးမ) ကသာ ပဋပကၡအကးဆကခစားရ ေသာ ရပရြာမားက အကအည မားေပးသည ေအဂငစမားအျဖစ ႏစေပါငးမားရခသည။ ေဒသႏရအဖြ႕အစညးမား ႏငလကတြ လပကငေနေသာ မားစြာေသာ NSAG မား ႏင ရပရြာအေျချပအဖြ႕အစညး (CBO) မား သညေထာကပ မႈမားကအကန႕အသတမားၾကားမလပေဆာငေနရသညတင ယငးေဒသ၏ ပညာေရး၊ ကနးမာေရး၊ ႏငေဒသႏရအပခပေရးပငးဆငရာမားကကာလအတနၾကာကပငျဖညဆညးေပးႏငခပါသည။
• ပဋပကၡဇနမားရ မားစြာေသာ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရသမားႏင အျခားေသာ ရပရြာမားအတြက NSAG ႏင
ဆကစပေသာ အရပ ဘကအဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင လပဂၢလမားအား ႏငငေတာ အဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင လပဂၢလမားထက တရား ၀ငျဖစမႈ ပမသညဟ မတယၾကသည။ ယငးသ႔ေသာ လပဂၢလမားႏင ကြနရကမားသည ၿငမးခမးေရး ျဖစစဥ တြင ကယပငျဖစမႈတစခက ႏစၿခကေနျခငးသည မရမျဖစအေရးပါသည။
• အဆပါ ေနရာေဒသမားသ႔ ၀ငေရာကေနသည ႏငငတကာႏင ႏငငေတာအဖြ႕အစညးမားေၾကာင
ရေနေသာ ေဒသႏရ စြမးရညမားက ေႏာငယကဖကဆးျခငးႏင/သ႔မဟတ လြမးၿချခငး၊ ၿငမးခမးေရး ျဖစစဥတြငယၾကည စတခမႈက ပကစး ေစျခငးစေသာ ရငဆငရမည အႏရာယတစခရေနသည။
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• တငပငေဆြးေႏြးမႈမရဘ (အထအခက မရ) ယခငက ယဥၿပငတကခကေနေသာ ေနရာေဒသမားသ႔ အစးရ အာဏာပငမႈ ခ႕ထြငျခငးက ေထာကပျခငးျဖင ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥတြင ယၾကညမႈႏင ယၾကညစတခမႈက ေႏာငယကဖကဆးမည အရာမားက ႏငငတကာ လႈပရားသမားက လပေဆာငရနမသငေပ။
ႏငငေရး ဓေလမား
• ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥတြင ပါ၀ငလပကငေနသညတင အစးရႏင ျမနမာစစတပေခါငးေဆာငမားသည တငးရငး သား အသငးအ၀ငး (ႏင NSAG မား) က ယငးတ႔၏ ကယပငဇာတလမးမားတြင အဓက ဇာတေကာင မားအျဖစ ႐ႈျမငျခငးထက တငးရငးသား အသငးအ၀ငးက အစးရ (ႏငငတကာအေထာကအပမားႏင)က ဖြ႕ၿဖးတးတက/ တးတကေအာင လပေဆာငမႈေအာကတြငေနထငၾကရမည ကေလးသငယမားအျဖစ ႐ႈျမငေနဆျဖစသည။
• ဆခသညအတငး လကေတြ႕တြင ပဋပကၡျဖစပြားရာေနရာေဒသမားတြင မၾကာခဏႀကေတြ႕ခရသညမာ
ယခင က ေရာကရႏငျခငးမရသည၊ ပဋပကၡအကးဆကခစားရသည ေနရာေဒသမားတြင အထက-ေအာက ႏငင ၀နေဆာငမႈမားႏင အပခပမႈအေဆာကအအမား ထးေဖာက၀ငေရာကျခငးသည ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥတြင ယၾကညမႈ ပကျပားေစသည။
• ၿငမးခမးေရးႏင ႏငငေရးလႈပရားသမားသည ခကခေသာ စနေခၚမႈမားက ေရာငရားၿပး
တငးရငးသားအသငး အ၀ငးႏင ႏငငေတာ-လအဖြ႕အစညးဆကဆေရးမားအေပၚ သကေရာကဆ မားစြာေသာ ခကခသည ျပနာ မားက ေျဖရငးေနျခငးျဖင ကယကကယ ခးမြမးေနရျခငးက သေဘာေတြ႕ေနမည ထညသြငးစဥးစားရဖြယ ရငဆငစရာေဘးအႏရာယတစ ခလညးရေနသည။ ထသ႔ျဖစလင ပမေကာငးမြနေသာ ျမနမာႏငငက တညေဆာက ရမည အခြငအလမးမားလညး ဆး႐ႈးသြားဖြယရသည။
ဆခကႏင ေအာကမလာေသာ ဖကဒရယစနစ
• ထပတနးအဆင ႏငငေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြမားသည အခနဆြထားျခငး၊ အထက-ေအာကႏင မၾကမးအတငးေဆာင ရြကၾကမည ရငဆငရဖြယ အႏရာယလညးရသည။ ညႏႈငးေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားသည အဓကကေသာ လႈပရားသမား က ရလဒမခဥးကပမႈ မားက သးကာ (အထးသျဖင ၂၀၁၅ ေရြးေကာကပြမားတြင ၀ငေရာကယဥၿပငျခငး) တရားဥပေဒနညးက ေဆြးေႏြးမႈမား (ဥပမာ- ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒဆငရာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးတြင)တြင ပတမေနႏငသည။
• တငးရငးသားႏငငေရးသမားမားသည ဥးစားေပးအတြက အေရးကစၥမားက ရာေဖြေဖာထတၿပး အစးရႏင
လငျမနေသာ ညႏႈငးေဆြးေႏြးမႈမား လပေဆာငသငသည။ တငးရငးသားမား၏ နစနာခကမား (ဥပမာ- ဘာသာစကားအသးျပမႈႏင ေျမယာ အခြငအေရးမားႏင ဆကစပေသာ) ေကာငးမြနေသာ ယၾကညမႈႏင သတျပမႈက ေဖာထတျပသရနအလ႔ငာ အစးရက အခ႕ေသာ သေကၤတျပျခငးႏင လကေတြ႕ဆနေသာ အေလာအတငး/ဟနပနမားက ျပလပရန လအပသည။
• တငးရငးသားအသငးအ၀ငး၏ အေရးေပၚပပနမႈမားႏင လအပခကမားက ေျဖရငးရာတြင
အကအညျဖစမည ေဒသႏရလပငနးမားက အေထာကအကေပးပါ။ ေအာကေျခတြင ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကရန ခငမာၿပး ေရရည ႀကးပမးမားသည အထးအေရးႀကးလသည။ အသကေမြး၀မးေၾကာငးအေျခအေနအရ ႏငငေရးညႏႈငး ေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားသည ၂၀၁၄ ေႏာငးပငးအထ
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တစစတရာ အတငးအတာအထ အေျခကဥးမညမဟတေပ။ (ကေကာငးခလင ယငးသ႔ေသာ သေဘာတစညခကတစရပရပက ျမနမာစစတပ သ႔မဟတ အျခားေသာ အဓက ကသည သကဆငသမားလကခၾကမလားဆေသာ ေမးခြနးက ရေနဆျဖစသည။)
• လအပခကမား၏ ဘနားလညမႈမားကတညေဆာကရနႏင ယငးတ႔အားေျဖရငးရနအတြက
ပးတြလပငနးအစအစဥတစခ ေဖာေဆာငရနအလ႔ငာ ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကျခငး လအပေသာ အခကအလကမားေကာက ယ ဆနးစစရာတြင အစးရႏင အလရငမားသည NSAG မား၊ အရပဘကအဖြ႕အစညးႏင ပဋပကၡအကးဆက က ခစားရသည ရပရြာမားႏင လကတြ ေဆာငရြကသငသည။
• ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥက စမးသပျခငးႏင အဓကကေသာ သကဆငသမားကအပငးတြင ယၾကညမႈႏင
ယၾကည စတခမႈ တညေဆာကေရး အေထာကအကျဖစေစမည လပငနးမားက ျမငတငပါ။ ေကာငးမြနေသာ အေလ အထမားက (ႏစလဖြယ ေကာငးေသာ စစမးေမးျမနးခဥးကပမႈ) -ဥပမာ ပညာေရးႏင အသကေမြး၀မးေကာငး နယပယမားတြင- ရာေဖြၿပး အေထာကအကေပးပါ။
• ေဒသႏရ အေလအထက အားျဖညၿပး တညေဆာကမည နညးလမးမားျဖင ႏငငေတာႏင
အစးရမဟတေသာ အပခပမႈ အဖြ႕အစညးမားၾကားႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈေပးေသာ စနစမားၾကား ဆခကျဖစေပၚလာေအာင အေထာက အကေပးပါ။ ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥတြင ေဒသႏရေအဂငစက အေထာကအကျဖစေသာေနရာမားဖနတးႏငမည ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥတစရပကရပရြာမား (ႏင NSAGမား၊ အရပဘကအဖြ႕အစညးမား) ပါ၀ငေဆာငရြကျခငးသည အေရးႀကးသည။
ေသာခကကေသာ ေမးခြနးမား
• လတတေလာ အပစအခတရပစေရးမားသည NSAG မား ကယပငအပခပခြငရ လြတေျမာကဇနမား ( ၁၉၉၀ ျပညႏစ မားက အပစအခတရပစေရးမားကသ႔) ဆကလကထနးခပခြငရမညဟ ျမငသေလာ။ ထအေရးတြင ထေနရာေဒသမား၏ အဆငအတနးသည ဘာျဖစမလ။ ယငးအေရးကစၥမားသည ႏငငေရးအရ ေစစပညႏႈငး ျခငး၏ အစတအပငးတစရပအျဖစ ဘယလျဖစလာမလ/ျဖစလာလမမလ။
• ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥသည NSAG မားအား ေသာငးကနးသအပစမားအျဖစမ အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈတစခဆ
ေရာကခၿပေလာ။ ဘယကေရာကခသလ။ ႏငငေတာႏင ႏငငတကာလႈပရားသမား အမားအားျဖင ယဆၾက သညမာ ေသာခကကေသာ သကဆငသမားက လကခသည ႏငငေရးအရေျဖရငးမႈက ေစစပညႏႈငးႏငလင NSAG မားသည လကနကစြန႔ ၾကလမမညဟ ျဖစသည။ အခ႕ေသာ NSAG မားသည လကနကကစြန႔ၿပး ႏငငေရးပါတ၏မားျဖစလာၾကမည။ အျခားအဖြ႕မားကမ သတ႔၏ လကနကမားက ဆကလကစြကငလၿပး အသြငေျပာငး ျမနမာစစတပ၏ အစတအပငးတစရပ အျဖစ ျဖစႏငဖြယရသည။
• NSAG မားသည တရားမ၀ငျဖစခသည။ (ျမနမာအစးရ၏ သတမတခကအရ။ ယငးတ႔ကလညး
မမတ႔ကယက တရား ၀ငျဖစမႈမရဟ ယဆထားခ။ အျပညျပညဆငရာႏငငမား စနစအရလညး NSAG မားအတြက အသ အမတျပမႈ မရၾကေပ။) NSAG မားႏငဆကသြယျခငးက ရာဇ၀တမႈဟ သတမတေသာ ဥပေဒမားကလညး ပယဖကေပးရန သမၼတက ကတျပခၿပးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာအစးရႏင စစတပ၊ ႏငငတကာ လႈပရားသမား (သတ မနမား၊ အလရငမား၊ ေထာကပေရး ေအဂငစမား) အတြက NSAG မား၏ အဆငအတနးသည ဘာျဖစမည နညး။ ႏငငေတာ အေဆာကအအမားႏင ဆကစပေနေသာ
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အစးရမဟတသည အပခပမႈႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈေပး သည အပခပေရးသည မညသ႔ျဖစသငသနညး။
• တငးရငးသားမား၏ နစနာမႈမားႏင ရညမနးခကမားက အစးရက နားလညသလား။ ျမနမာအစးရႏင စစတပ သည ႏငငေရး ေစစပညႏႈငးမႈမားတြင တငးရငးသားတ႔၏ ပပနမႈမားက ျပညျပည၀၀ ေျဖရငးေပးလသလား။
• ပဋပကၡအကးဆကကခစားရသည ေနရာေဒသမား ဖြ႕ၿဖးရနႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကရန လပငနးမား
ေအာငျမငေစရန အစးရႏင ႏငငတကာမတဖကမားသည ေသာခကကေသာ သကဆငသမားႏင မတဖကျပ ကာ ပးတြေဆာငရြကလစတ ရမလား။
• တငးရငးသားအပစမား၏ ႏငငေရးကယစားျပမႈအျဖစ NSAG မား၏ အဆငအတနးသည ျပနာ
ျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာ သတ႔သည လနညးစအသကအ၀နးၾကားတြင တရား၀ငျဖစမႈရၿပးျဖစသည။ ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥသည NSAG မားအား အစးရ၊ ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးမားႏင မတဖကမားအျဖစသ႔ ေဆာငကဥးေပးခၿပး ယငးက ထေတြ႕ႏငျခငးမရေသာ ရပရြာမား (ဥပမာ- အစးရထနးခပထားသည နယေျမေဒသမား) ၾကားတြင စစညး ေဆာငရြကရန NSAG မားအတြက အခြင အလမးမား ရရခသည။ အျခားေသာ တငးရငးသား ႏငငေရးသမား မား (ဥပမာ- ၂၀၁၀ ေရြးေကာကပြမားတြင ၀ငေရာက ယဥၿပငခသည ႏငငေရးပါတမား) အတြက ဘယေနရာ ရသလ။
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ၿငမးခမေရးတညေဆာကမႈတြင ျပညသ႔လၿခ ေရး၏ အခနးက႑
The Role of Human Security in Peace Building in Myanmar
Kim Jolliffe King’s College London [email protected]
ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကမႈတြင ျပညသ႔လၿခ ေရးအခနးက႑ ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကမႈတြင ေရရညတညတၿပးအားလးပါ၀ငေသာ ၿငမးခမးေရးအတြက ပတ၀နးကငတစခ ရရရန ပဋပကၡအကး ဆကခစားရေသာ လ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမား ျပနလညတညေဆာကျခငးႏင အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာ စြမးရညမား အားေကာငးေအာင ျပလပျခငးျဖင လကနကကငႏငငေရးအကတာမား ေၾကာင လကမတေရးထးထားသည အပစအခတ ရပစမႈမား ခငမာ ေရး၏ မျဖစမေနလအပေသာ ျဖစစဥတစရပျဖစသည။ ယငးသည အေနာကႏငငမားက လာေလရသည လစဘရယကေသာ ၾကား၀ငမႈတစချဖစၿပး ၿငမးခမးေရးကယတငက (တကခကမႈမား မရျခငးဟ စအားျဖင နားလညထားၾကသည)ပနးတငတစခတညးမသာမဟတေပ။ ဥပမာအားျဖင မားစြာ ေသာ အလးစအာဏာပင၀ါဒႏငငမားတြင အၾကမးနညးျဖင ဖႏပျခငးႏင ျပတသားေသာစစေရးအရ ေအာငပြမားမတစဆင ေအာငျမငခၾကသည။ လစဘရယကေသာ ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကမႈေဖာေဆာငျခငးမားျဖင ပမကယျပန႔ေသာ ႏငင တညေဆာကေရး စမကနးမား အလြယတက ျဖစလာၾကသည။ တစစတစရာေသာ ၿငမးခမးေရးပစတစရပ ထတလပႏငရန ရညရြယကာ ႏငငေတာ ဗဟျပျခငးႏင ကမၻာလးဆငရာေပါငးစညးေရးအေပၚအေလးထားမႈတစခႏငအတဒမကေရစ၊တရား ဥပေဒစးမးမႈဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၊ လ႔အခြငအေရးႏင ဖရးမားကတ အရငးရင၀ါဒအားလးတ႔က ရရရနလကတြေဆာငရြကရမည နညး လမးတစချဖစသည။ ႏငငေတာႏင အျခား အနးစပဆးသမားအၾကား အမနတကယ သ႔မဟတ မတယထားသည ကြာဟ ခကမားႏင တငးရငး သား(သ႔)အျခားလငးမား ကြျပားမႈျဖစေနသညေနရာတြင အရပဘကပဋပကၡေပၚထြကလာသညဟ အမားနားလညလကခ ထားၾကသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကမႈသအရတြင ပါ၀ငသညမာ ႏငငေတာသည ပဋပကၡအကးဆကက ခစားရသည သမားထေရာကရရမညျဖစၿပး ယငးတ႔အား ၿငမးခမးေရး၏ အတးရငးပြားမားဟ သထားၾကသည။ ၿငမးခမးေရး ထမ အေကာငအထညရေသာ အကးအျမတမား ရရေစကာယငးတ႔အား ျဖစစဥ၏ေနာကတြင ရေနေစရနႏင ဆး႐ႈးနစနာမႈ မားတငးမာမႈမားလညး ေလာပါးေစရမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာအစးရႏင ကရငအမးသားအစညးအရး(KNU)ၾကား ျဖစစဥအေပၚ အမားစဥးတညထားသည ယခစာတမးတြင ႏငငေတာႏင အၿပငလကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားအၾကား ဆယစႏစမားႏငခ၍ တကခကခၾကေသာ ျမနမာႏငငတြင လမား၏လအပခကအေပၚ ယငးသ႔ေသာ ဥးတညခကတစခသည အထးတစလည အေရးႀကးလေၾကာငးက တငျပသြားမညျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျမနမာႏငငတြင ျဖစပြားေနသည ပဋပကၡ၏ သဘာ၀က နားလညမႈလြမားေနခပရသည အခနတြင ႏငငေတာ၏ အေျပာကယလေသာ အတအေယာငလစဘရယစးပြားေရးႏငင တညေဆာကေရးစမကနးႏငဆကစပေနသည ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကေရးစမကနးေတာမားမားသည ၿငမးခမးေရးတည ၿမေရးအတြက
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အားထတမႈမားက တကယတမးတြင ၿခမးေျခာကေနပရသည။ ျပညသ႔စစပြလား၊ ျပညသ႔ၿငမးခမးေရးလား။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ဆယစႏစမားအၾကာ လကနကကငတစဖြ႕မားအၾကား အျပနအလနတကခကေနၾကသည ပဋပကၡမားတြင ျပညသမားသည ေျမစာပငလးလးျဖစခရသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ၿငမးခမးေရးအစစဥတစရပ၏ အသညးႏလးတြငရ ေနသည ျပညသမား အားမညသ႔မညပ မညသက အပခပရမညက ၿငမးခမးစြာ အမားသေဘာတညခကတစရပျဖစရမည။ ၁၉၆၀ျပညႏစမားတြင ေပၚထြနးခသည တပမေတာ၏ ျပညသ႔စစပြ၀ါဒသေဘာတရားသည ေခါငးေဆာငမားကသတ႔ႏငင ေရးရညရြယခကေအာငျမငရန အလငာ ျပညသမားအား လႈ႔ေဆာစညး႐း၍ ရေကာငးေသာ ရငးျမစတစခအျဖစ စမခန႔ခြ ရန ဆသညသေဘာပငျဖစသည။ အထးသျဖင ႏငငျခား ကးေကာမႈတစရပေပၚေပါကခနတြင စစေရးရညမနးခကမား အတြက ႏငငသားမားအားလးက အသးျပႏငေစရန အဆပါ၀ါဒသေဘာတရားက ထေထာငချခငးျဖစသည။ သ႔တငထ႔သ႔ မညသညအခါမ မျဖစေပၚခဘ အဆပါ၀ါဒသေဘာတရားသည အဆကဆကေသာ အစးရမား ထေရာကစြာ အပခပႏငရန ခဥးကပမႈတစခအျဖစ အျငငးပြားဖြယရာ ပေဖာခၿပး ေသာငးကနးမႈႏမနငးေရး မဟာဗဟာ အျဖစသာ အေသအခာသက ေရာကမႈရခသည။ ကယပင ဆးျဖတခြငႏင မမတ႔ျပညသမား၏ အျခားအကးစးပြားမားအတြက တကခကေနၾကသညဟ အမားစက ဆၾကသည တငးျပည၏ေျမာကျမားလစြာေသာ တငးရငးသားလကနကကငအပစမား(EAG)မား၏ လႈ႔ေဆာမႈ ႏင လသစေဆာငးမႈတြငလညး ျပညသမားက ဗဟျဖစခသည။ ရလဒအားျဖင EAG မားက အစးရထက ျပညသမားအား မားစြာ ပမေကာငးမြနေသာ ၀နေဆာငမႈမားေပးႏငခသလ ျဖစရပမားစြာတြင ေတြ႕ခရသည။ သကႀကးရြယအမား၊ အႀကးအကမား၊ ေစာငေရာကသမားႏင ေထာကပသမားက ေလးစားမႈေပးသညအေပၚ ကယကယျပန႔ျပန႔အေျခခထား သည႐းရာအထကေအာကပစ နယပယမားတြင တငးရငးသားျပညသမားက သတ႔၏ သကဆငရာ EAG မားအား ေလးနကေသာေထာကခမႈမား ရခသညဟ ဆရမညျဖစသည။ ၁၉၆၀ ျပညႏစမားကတညးက ျပညသ႔ဗဟျပ စစေရးမဟာဗဟာမားက သးစြကာ တပမေတာက ယငးတ႔၏ ျဖတေလးျဖတ မဟာဗဟာဟ ထငရားသညနညးျဖင တ႔ျပနခရသည။ ယငး၏ ရညရြယခကမာ တငးရငးသား လမးမားႏင EAG မား ၾကားအဆကအသြယအားလးက ျဖတေတာကၿပး ခလႈစရာ၊ ရနပေငြမား၊ ေထာကလမးေရး၊ တပသားစေဆာငးျခငးႏင အျခား အေထာကအပမားျပတေတာကသြားေစရနရညရြယၿပး ျပညသမားဘကလညသြားချခငးျဖစသည။ မကႏာစာမား စြာပါ၀ငသည လအမားေထာကခရမညလႈပရားမႈ ကစၥတစရပတြင မဟာဗဟာအရ ဆယစႏစမားႏငခ၍ အစလကအၿပ လကေနရာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးျခငးမား ျပလပရမညဟ ဆၿပး အသကအ၀နးတစခလး အလးစျပနးတးသြားေရးႏင လသနးေပါငး မားစြာက အဓမၼေနရာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးျခငးအေပၚ ဗဟျပကာ EAG ပငနကေျမမားျပငပႏင အစးရထနးခပမႈေအာကတြငရေသာ စစမေဒသမားသ႔ ပ႔ေဆာငျခငးမားျပလပခသည။ ယငးသ႔ေသာ စစဆငေရးမားတြင ရြာမားက မး႐ႈ႕ျခငး၊ အစားအေသာက သေလာငသညေနရာမားက ဖကဆးျခငး၊ လေနေနရာမား၊ စကခငးမားႏင လသြားလမးမားတြင ေျမျမပမငးမားေထာင ျခငး၊ ဥပေဒမ သတျဖတျခငး၊ အဓမၼဖမးဆးႏပစကျခငးစသည နညးလမးမားအပါအ၀င ၿခမးေျခာကျခငး နညးလမးမးစတ႔ ကဒဂရအမးမးျဖင အသးျပခသည။ ယငးနညးလမးမားတြင လငပငးဆငရာႏငအျခားပစ ကာယပငးဆငရာ အၾကမးနညး မားကလညး အသးျပခသည။
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ၿငမးခမးေရးအတြက ျပညသမားက အားေပးအားေျမႇာကျပျခငး ျပညသမားအေပၚ ဥးတညရမည အေၾကာငးသးရပသည ျမနမာႏငငတြင ၿငမးခမးေရးတညၿမရန အလြနအေရးႀကးသည။ ၁။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ဒမကေရစ အသြငးကးေျပာငးေရးအတြက ကယျပန႔ေသာ ႀကးစား႐နးကနမႈႏင မနးရးစြပငလကနက ကငမားအေပၚ မချခငးမ ကငးေ၀းေစရနအဆငဆငေျပာငးလမႈျဖစစဥတစရပသည ႏစကာလမားစြာ အခနယရမညျဖစ ၿပး ေအာကမလာသည လႊမးမးမႈ၏ ၀နးကငသစတစရပ ပြငလငးလာေစရန ပညာေကာငးစြာတတသည လလတတနးစားတစရပႏငအတ လပႏငစြမးရၿပး ခြနအားရေသာ ႏငငသားထတစရပ ေပၚထြကလာေရးေပၚတြင အဓက မတညေနသည။ အရပသားမားက အဓကဥးတညခကအျဖစ ထားရျခငးႏငအတ ေအာကေျခအဆငတြင အရညအေသြးတညေဆာက ေရး သည ေသာခကကသည။ ၂။ လတတေလာတြငေျမာကျမားလစြာေသာ တငးရငးသားမားသည ေဘးထတဖယၾကဥခရသညအဆးေကာ သသရာ ထတြင ပတမေနၾကသည။ ႏငငေတာဖႏပမႈႏင အၾကမးပတမးကငတြယ မႈမားေၾကာင တငးရငးသားမားသည ႏငငေတာ အတြငးမ ဆတခြာျခငး(သ႔)အလြနအကၽြျဖစေသာ ကစၥရပမားတြင ႏငငေတာအတြငးမ ထြကေျပးျခငးမားျဖစေပၚၿပး EAG မားအေပၚ၎တ႔၏မခမႈႏင သစၥာခမႈမားက အားေကာငးေစခသည။ ရလဒအားျဖင ယငးသ႔ေသာလမားသည ႏငငေတာ၏ အျပစေပးမႈက ထပမခရၿပး အထကတြင ေဖာျပထားခသည လအေျချပစစေရးမဟာဗဟာ၏ ေျမစာပငျဖစကာ စစသားမား ၏ႏပစကမႈကခရသည။ ယငးစစသားမားက အျပစေပးခရျခငးမရသေလာကျဖစခသည။ ယခ ကၽြနေတာရညညႊနးသညမာ မမတ႔အးအမမားဆး႐ႈးၿပး ထြကေျပးၾကရသမားကသာမဟတဘ တစႀကမတစခါမ တကယအမမရခဘးသည သနးႏငခ ေသာျပညသမားက ရညရြယျခငးျဖစသည။ ကၽြနေတာေတြ႔ဆေမးျမနးခသည အသက(၆၀)ေကာအရြယမားကသ႔ မမတ႔ ေလးဘကသြားအရြယကတညးက ထြကေျပးခရသညသမားကသ႔ျဖစသည။ ၃။ ေနာကဆးအားျဖင ကရင EAG ႏငတပမေတာနယျခားေစာငတပဖြ႕မားတြင အသက(၁၈)ႏစေအာကမား ပါ၀င ပတသကမႈအေပၚ ၂၀၁၂ခႏစတြင ကၽြနေတာျပလပခသည သေတသနအရ ဆးျဖတရလင မားစြာေသာ လငယေယာကား ေလးမားအတြက ယငးသ႔ၾကမးၾကမးတမးတမးႏင စစသားအျဖစ အဓမၼစေဆာငးခရျခငးက မလြမေရာငသာ ခစားေနရျခငး မာ သတ႔၏ ေရြးခယမႈတစခမဟတေပ။ အစးရက ႏစကာလတစခအတြငး စစေျပၿငမးထားျခငး(သ႔) EAG ေခါငးေဆာငမား ႏငပင ပးတြေဆာငရြကေနေသာေစစပညႇႏႈငးေရးစားပြ၀ငးတြင ႏငငေရးေရပၚဆမားေၾကာင ယေန႔ကာလအတြင မညသ႔ေသာ ရလဒမား ထြကေပၚ သညပငျဖစေစ စစမကအလြနထေျပာသည ယငးေဒသမားတြင မလၿခမႈ၊ ေမာလငခကမမႈမားျဖငတငးၾကမးျပညေနေသာ ျပညသမားသည သတ႔၏ ေန႔စဥဘ၀ျဖစတညမႈႏင မမတ႔အနာဂတမားက ဆးျဖတႏငစြမးက ၿငမးခမးေရးက တးျမႇငေပးႏငစြမးရသည အနာဂတတစခက ေမာမနးႏငသညအခနအထ ၿငမးခမးေရးက ျမငႏငမညမဟတေပ။ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရး၏ ရညမနးခက စစေဘးဒဏခခရသညရပရြာတစခတြင ၿငမးခမးေရး၏ အျမတသညမညသ႔မညပျဖစမညနညးဆသညႏငပကသကၿပး ထငျမငယဆခကမားေပးခၾကသည။ သမား႐းကအားျဖင ေသာခကကေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးညႊနးကနးမားက ပစမတထားရန ႏငငတကာအဖြ႕အစညးမားသည ႏငငေတာႏင အတတကြလပေဆာငျခငး သ႔မဟတ
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ေကာေထာကေနာကချပၿပး ၿငမးခမးေရး တညေဆာကေရးျဖစစဥတြင လ႔အသငးအ၀ငးယၾကညမႈတညေဆာကျခငး က ျပလပၾကရသည။ ျမနမာအေရး တြင IDP သ႔ အေျခခလအပခကမားေထာကပျခငး၊ မငးရငးလငးျခငးႏင စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအပါအ၀င အစးရအခတ အဆကႏင NGO ဥးေဆာငမႈမားသည ကစၥရပအေတာမားမားက စတငကငတြယခၾကသည။ ယငးကစၥႏစရပစလးသည EAG ႏင လကတြေဆာငရြကသည အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညး ကြနရကမားအတြက အျပငးအထနအျငငးပြားစရာအျဖစ ရ ေနဆျဖစသည။ ၿငမးခမးေရးေခါငးစဥေအာကတြင မားစြာေလာရရျဖစေနသည ႏငငျခားဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအေထာကအပက လကခေနသည အျခားေသာစမကနးမားသည အထးသျဖင အပစအခတရပစေရး၏ရလဒေၾကာင EAG ၾသဇာက လကလႊတလကရေသာ ေနရာေဒသမားတြင လမးမားေဖာကလပျခငးႏင အစးရေကာငးမားေဆာကလပျခငးတ႔ကသ႔ ေသာ ဗဟခပကငမႈက ပမအားျပျခငးအေပၚအာ႐စကသည။ ထစဥအခနတြင ႏငငေတာကယတငကမ စစေရးအသးစရတက တစႏစလင အေမရကနေဒၚလာသနး ၂၀၀၀ ေကာ ဆကလကသးစြေနၿပး ယငးသ႔ေသာလပငနးမးမားက အစးရ၏ အသးစရတေပးျခငးက လစလ႐ႈထားပရသည။
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ျမနမာႏငငရ စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင ၿငမးခမးေရး- က႑အလကစြန႔စားရႏငေျခ၊ လပငနးလညပတေရးကစၥရပမားႏငဆကႏြယေသာ ၿငမးခမးေရးႏင
လမႈေရးလငစငမားေပၚ ေတြးေတာၾကညျခငးမား
Business and Peace in Myanmar: Thoughts on Sector Risks, Related to Peace and Social License to Operate Issues
David Allan
Spectrum Yangon [email protected]
ျမနမာႏငငသည စစအာဏာရငစနစမ ဒမကေရစအပခပမႈစနစသ႔၊ ဗဟဥးစးသည စးပြားေရးမ ေစးကြကစးပြားေရးစနစ သ႔၊ နယျခားေဒသမားတြင ႏစေပါငး ၆၀ ပဋပကၡမ ၿငမးခမးေရးသ႔ အသြငေျပာငးမႈသးရပက ေဖာေဆာငလကရသည။0
1 “သန႔ရငးေသာအစးရႏင ေကာငးမြနေသာအပခပမႈနယပယမားတြင ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားသတေကာငးစြာျပလပေနစဥ ယငးတ႔သည ခကခၿပး ေျဖရငးရခကေသာ ကစၥရပမားစြာကနရေသးၿပး ႏငငတကာ၏ ခးကးမႈမားပင ခထကသည။ အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈနယပယတစခခတြငေသာလညးေကာငး၊ နယပယအားလးတြငေသာ လညး ေနာကျပန ေရာကျခငးသည အျခားေသာနယပယမားကလညး အကးဆကျဖစေစမည။ နကနေသာျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားအေပၚ အမနတကယဥးတညမႈမရလင အေျပာငးအလမားသည အေပၚယမကႏာျပငတစခတြငသာျဖစၿပး ကနအစတပငး မားတြငရေနသည မားစြာေသာ ကစၥရပမားသည ျပညတြငးစစႏင ပဋပကၡ၏ဆယစႏစမားဆ ဆကလကေရာကရ သြားလမမညျဖစသည။ ယငးအခငးအကငးပစသည အလြနထခကလြယသညကစၥရပတစခအျဖစရေနဆ ပငျဖစသည။ အစစအမနရလဒမားႏင ဘ၀အရညေသြးတးတကမႈမားအတြက ေမာလငခကမားသည သထေရသြနျဖစသြားမညမာ အေသအခာျဖစၿပး လတတေလာတြငေတာ ထအေျခမးႀကးႀကးမားမားမေတြ႕ရေသးေခ။ လတာထကပေသာ အခကအခမား အခ႕ေသာအခကအခမားက ၂၀၁၃ ဇနန၀ါရ ၁၀ ရကေန႔တြငေျပာၾကားသည သ၏ မန႔ခြနးတြင သမၼတဥးသနးစနက ထညသြငးေျပာၾကားခသည။ “ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈေတြ ျပလပေနေသာျငား တငးျပညဟာအသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလမာ လတာထက ပတ အခကအခေတြန႔ စနေခၚေတြမႈေတြက ရငဆငေနရပါတယ။ လကပေတာငးေတာငစမကနး၊ ေျမယာအေရး၊ ရခငျပညနယမာျဖစပြားတ အၾကမးဖကမႈေတြန႔ ကခငၿငမးခမးေရပကျပားရျခငးေတြန႔ပကသကၿပး ျပနာေတြ က ကငတြယေျဖရငးရာကရရလာတ အေတြ႕အႀကေတြ႕ေန သငခနးစာယၿပး အနာဂတမာ မမတ႔ရ႕ စမခန႔ခြမႈ တးတက ေအာင အစးရက ႀကးပမးသြားပါမယ” ဟေျပာၾကားခသည။ ယငးသ႔ျဖစရပမားျဖစပြားရျခငး၏ မားစြာေသာ ေနာကခ အေၾကာငးအရငးမားမာ စးပြားေရးလပငနးန႔ အဆကအစပရၾကသည။ လကပေတာင (ေၾကးနသတတြငး)-နစနာေၾကး ေပးျခငးကစၥရပမား၊ တပဖြ႕အငအားအသးျပမႈ၊ ေျမယာဆး႐ႈးမႈ၊ ရပရြာအခြငအေရးမား၊ ညစညမးမႈမား။ ေျမယာအခြင အေရး- ေျမသမးျခငး၊ ေတာငယာေျမမား၊ မေလာကနေသာဥပေဒမား၊ ေျမယာပငဆငခြင အေထာကအထားကစၥရပမား၊ အၿပငအဆငသးျခငးမား။ ရခငအၾကမးဖကမႈ- အပစမားအတြက ေယဘယအခြငအေရးမားမရျခငး၊ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရး အသး အပြငမားမရျခငးဆကလကျဖစေပၚေနျခငး။ ကခငျပညနယ ၿငမးခမးေရး/စစပြ- ကယပငအပခပခြငမရျခငး၊ ရငးျမစ အကးအျမတခြေ၀မႈမရျခငး၊ ဗဟကဆးျဖတေသာ
1 World Bank, Myanmar Strategy 2012.
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စမကနးမားျဖစၾကသည။ ေလာေလာဆယတြင စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈတ႔သည ၿငမးခမးေရးထက ပဋပကၡႏငပမခတဆကေနၾကသည။ စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင လအခြငအေရး အတြက ကလသမဂၢလမးညႊနအေျခခ မႈမားဖြ႕ၿဖးေရလပငနးစဥမားက ဥးေဆာငေနသည John Ruggie က ျမနမာႏငင တြင “လးလထတႀကးပမးမႈကျပငးျပငးထနထနလပေဆာငရနလအပေနသည” ဟ မးေမာငးထးျပခသည။1
2 “ကာကြယမႈ၊ ေလးစားမႈ၊ ကသမႈ” မေဘာင၊ သ႔မဟတ လ႔အခြငအေရးကာကြယရနအတြက ႏငငေတာတာ၀န၊ လအခြငအေရး ေလးစား လကနာရန ေကာပရတတာ၀န၀တရားမားႏင စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏငဆကႏြယေသာ အလြသးခရသမား အား ကသမႈေပး ရန ပမေကာငးမြနေသာနညးလမးမားလအပခကတ႔သည အေထာကအကျပေပလမမည။ စမကနးမားႏငပကသကေသာ ျပညသမား၏ အဓကပပနမႈမား ျမနမာႏငငရစမကနးမားအေပၚသကေရာကမႈမားႏငပကသကေသာ အလားတစာရငးမားသည အမးမးေသာ ေဆြးေႏြး ပြမားႏင ေလလာသးသပမႈမားမ ထြကေပၚလာသည။ အစးရ၊ လပငနးႏင ျပညသ႔အကးစးပြား အပစမားပါ၀ငေဆြးေႏြးရာ မထြကေပၚလာသည ျပညသ႔အမား၏အဓကပပနမႈ ၁၅ ခကမာ တငပငေဆြးေႏြးမႈလပငနးစဥမားခ႕ငျခငး၊ အနာဂတ အသကေမြး၀မးေၾကာငးအတြက အေထာကအပမျပျခငး၊ ေကာပရတယဥေကးမႈအရ ႀကတငထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈမရျခငး၊ ရပရြာမားအတြက တာ၀နယမႈ (လၿခမႈ၊ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကင) မရျခငး၊ လပငနးလညပတေရးစခနစညႊနးမားသည နမ ကၿပး ျမႇငတငရနလအပျခငး၊ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာအေမြအႏစမားအေပၚ အကးဆကမားက ထညသြငးမစဥးစားျခငး၊ စမ ကနးမားက သဘ၀ေနထငပနညးလမးက ႐ကခတျခငး၊ နစနာေၾကးေပးရနအတြက လေလာကေသာ ဘကဂကမရ ျခငး၊ လ႔အခြငအေရး- သငေလာေသာကငတြယမႈမရျခငး၊ ရပရြာသ႔အကးမျဖစျခငး (ရပရြာက မညသညအရာက လအပ သနညး)၊ ေျမယာဆး႐ႈးျခငး- ယဥေကးမႈႏင စးပြားေရးမကႏာစာမား၊ သးပြငဆငတငပငေဆြးေႏြးႏငစြမးမရျခငး-အစးရ၊ စးပြားေရးလပငနး၊ ရပရြာမား၊ စဥဆကမျပတေစာငၾကညထနးခပမႈမရျခငး၊ ကင၀တဆငရာ၊ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ အေျပာငးအလႏင ရာဇ၀တမႈျမငမားျခငး၊ ကနးမာေရး၊ လၿခေရးအကးဆကမားႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငညစညမးမႈတ႔ ျဖစၾကသည။ အဆပါစာရငးသည လကပေတာငးေတာငစမကနးႏငပကသကေသာ ေရးသားထတေ၀ခသည ပပနမႈစာရငးမားႏင အလားတပငျဖစသည။2
3 စမကနးမား ျပနာမားအလာသ႑ာနဆငေနရျခငးမာ ေရ႕ကႀကျမငႏငစြမး ပမာဏကျပသေနျခငးျဖစသည။ ယငးသည စြန႔စားရႏငေျခအကျဖတခကႏင လပငနးက႑စြန႔စားရႏင ေျခစာရငးမား၏ အေရးပါပက မးေမာငးထးျပေနျခငးျဖစသည။ စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးကစၥရပမားအေပၚ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခ လပတျပကအကျဖတခက လပငနးအဆငက စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏငၿငမးခမးေရးႏငဆကႏြယေသာ အေၾကာငးအရငးမားအေပၚ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခ လကတျပကအကျဖတခကက ျပငဆငခသည။ ယငးက႑မားတြင စြန႔စားရႏငေျခက မညသ႔ယဆသနညး၊ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရး လမးေၾကာငးႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥမား အေပၚသကေရာကမႈ၏ အျမငမားမ က႑ ၁၀ ခႏင စးပြားေရးလပငနး ၆၄ ေလးခက၏ လပငနးပစမားက ဆနးစစ ေကာကယခသည။ အေျခခစြမးအင၊ အေျခခအေဆာကအအ၊ စကပးေရးႏင အစားအေသာကထတလပေရး၊ စားသးသကနပစၥညးမား၊ မးလငးေရးလပငနး၊ ပညာေရးႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈသည စြန႔စားရ ႏငေျခနညးပါးသညဟ မတယၾကကာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးက အေထာကအက ပမျဖစေစႏငဖြယရသည။ ထညသြငးတြကခက ထားေသာ လပငနးခြ ၆၄ မး၏ အခ႕ဥပမာမားမာ ေကးရြာအေျခစက ျပနလညျပညၿဖးျမစြမးအင၊ အသကေမြး၀မး ေကာငးသငတနး၊ ကနးမာေရး၀နေဆာငမႈ၊ ရပရြာအေျချပ ခရးသြားလပငနး၊ ဆကသြယေရး၊ ေကးရြာသစေတာ လပငနးမားတ႔ျဖစၾကသည။
2 Responsible Business in Myanmar: Operating Context, Sanctions and International CSR Standards, Webinar, FOLEY HOAG LLP, 18 August 2012. 3 Finalized Report of Special Investigation Commission, Mirror Newspaper, 12 March 2013.
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သယဇာတတးေဖာေရးလပငနးက႑မားႏင အႀကးစားစကမႈလပငနးမားမာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျချမငသညဟ ယဆၿပး ဖြ႕ၿဖး ေရးက အဟန႔အတား ပမျဖစေစဖြယရသည။ က႑မားႏင လပငနးမားၾကား ျခားနားခကမားအေပၚ ျမနမာႏငငတြင အနညးငယသာလပကငေဆာငရြကရေသးၿပး စးပြားေရးလပငနးမားက စြန႔စားရႏငေျခအျမငမ ဗလကစးမႈမႈအျဖစ မၾကာခဏျဖစၾကေလရသည။ ယခေလလာမႈသည မတဆကမသာျဖစၿပး ပမာဏႀကးမားေသာ အသအျမငေလလာမႈ တစခ သ႔မဟတ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခအေလအထမားအကျဖတျခငး အားသြနခြနစကလပေဆာငမႈတစျဖင ဆကလကလပ ေဆာငသငသည။ ယငးသ႔ေသာအလပမးက စြန႔စားရႏငေျခနမေသာ လပငနးမားက အခနမဆငးဘလပေဆာင သငသည။ အကးအျမတျမငျမငမားမားရရနအတြက စြန႔စားမႈျမငျမငမားမားလပသည ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားမာ ရပရြာမား ကေပးဆပရသည အကးဆကထညမတြကျခငးျဖစသည။ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားက ႀကျမငႏငစြမးသည အလြနအေရးႀကး ၿပး အခ႕က႑မားတြင စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားက ျမႇငထားသညရလဒေၾကာင ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥမားတြင ေနာကထပ ႐ႈပေထြးမႈမားရလာႏငသညဟ ေမာလငႏငသည။ က႑ပငးေလလာမႈမား၏ပအေသးစတကသည ဥပမာမား- သတတြငး Franks ႏင Davis တ႔ မၾကာေသးမကျပလပခေသာ ကမၻာလးဆငရာသေတသနတြင သတတြငး ကမၸဏ/ရပရြာ ပဋပကၡ ျဖစရပ ၅၀ ကေလလာခသည။3
4 ကမၸဏတစခအတြက ပဋပကၡ၏အဓကအကးဆကမာ စမခန႔ခြမႈႏင ၀နထမးမား အခန၊ ဒဏေၾကးမား၊ နစနာေၾကး၊ ဒဇငးျပနချခငးကနကစရတ၊ ထတလပမႈအပကအစးကစၥ ရပမားျဖစသညက ေတြ႕ရခၿပး ေနရာေဒသမားတြင ကငတြယရသညျပနာမား၏ ၅၀ ရာခငႏႈနးမာ ညစညမးမႈ၊ အျမတခြေ၀မႈ၊ ရငးျမစမား ရယျခငး သ႔မဟတ ၿပငဆငျခငး၊ တငပငေဆြးေႏြးျခငးႏင ဆကသြယေရး၊ ရပရြာကနးမာေရးႏင လၿခေရး၊ ထခကလြယၿပး ဖယကဥခထားရေသာ အပစမား၊ ဓေလမားႏင ထးတမးမား၊ သေဘာတညမႈကစၥရပမား၊ လဥးေရႏင လဥးေရအေျပာငးလကစၥမားျဖစၾကသညက သေတသနက ရာေဖြေတြ႕ ရခသည။ မငးတြငးႏင ဓာတသတတးေဖာေရးက႑တြင လ႔အခြငအ ေရးခးေဖာကမႈ အစရငခစာမားတြင ေတြ႕ရရသညကမၸဏ/ရပရြာပဋပကၡက The International Council for Mining and Metals မသးသပရာတြငလညး အလားတရလဒမးပငထြကေပၚခသည။ သယဇာတတးေဖာေရးလပငနးမားတြင အေပါငးလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအတြက ပးတြအၾကျပခက ၇ ရပ CSR၊ လမႈေရးသကေရာကမႈ၊ စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင လ႔အခြငအေရး ေဆြးေႏြးပြက ႀကျမငႏငေသာ စြန႔စားရႏင ေျခမားက ကငတြယေျဖရငးရန ျမနမာႏငငတြင သယဇာတတးေဖာေရးက႑၌ အေလအထမား တးတကေစရနအတြက ေအာကပါ အေျခခမ ၇ ရပက ေဖာထတခသည။4
5 (၁) ေနာကထပ အမးသားဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးလပငနးမား အဆငေျပေခာေမြ႕ေစရန တးတကေသာ ဆကသြယေရး၊ နားလညမႈႏင အခြငအလမးမားစြာက ေပးရန အစးရ၊ စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင ျပညသတ႔ ၾကား သးပြငဆငဒငယာေလာက တးတကေအာငေဆာငရြကရန။ (၂) CSR ႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးကစၥရပမားက ဥးတည သည ေဆြးေႏြးပြတြင ယငးကစၥရပမားေပၚ အဖြ႕မားၾကား နားလညမႈတးတကရန ေရ႕ဆကရမည လမးတစခ ေတြ႕ရ ခသည။ ဆးျဖတခကခသညလပငနးစဥမားတြင ရပရြာမားပါ၀ငမႈႏင သေဘာတညမႈတ႔သည သယဇာတတးေဖာေရး စမကနးမားလညပတရာမ လတတေလာထြကေပၚလာသည မားစြာေသာ ကစၥရပမားက ေကာလႊားႏငမညျဖစသည။ (Free Prior and Informed Consent or FPIC)။ (၃) ေျမယာ၊ အသကေမြး၀မးေၾကာငး၊ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကင ဆငရာ၊ လမႈလင၊ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ အေမြအႏစ၊ အကးအျမတခြေ၀ျခငး၊ လၿခမႈ၊ ရပရြာထခကမႈႏင ရပရြာအကာအကြယေပး ျခငးကစၥရပမားအေပၚ
4 Davis, Rachel and Franks, Daniel M., The costs of conflict with local communities in the extractive industry, 2011. 5 Spectrum Seminar, “Sharing on Corporate Social Responsibility”, 7‐8 October 2012.
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အာ႐စကျခငးက အထးအေရးႀကး လပငနးတစရပအျဖစ ထညသြငးစဥးစားရမည။ (၄) စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင လ႔အခြငအေရး “ကာကြယျခငး၊ ေလးစားျခငး၊ ကသျခငး” မေဘာငသည အစးရ၊ စးပြားေရး လပငနးႏင ရပရြာဆကဆေရးတးတကမႈဆသ႔ အကးျဖစေစသည။ (၅) ေကာပရတလမႈတာ၀နမား (CSR) အေကာငးဆး အေလအထႏင Ruggie ၏ မေဘာငအရ လ႔အခြငအေရးအားလးက ေလးစားမႈအေပၚ အထးတလည ဥး တညခကတစခထားျခငးသည အႏတလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ သကေရာကမႈမားက မားစြာေလာခသြားေပလမမည။ (၆) အမးမးေသာလပငနးက႑မားႏငဆေလာ သည အမးမးေသာ စခနစညႊနးမားႏင ကင၀တမားက ေလးစားလကနာ ျခငးျဖင စးပြားေရးလပငနးသည လပငနးလညပတရန အေပါငးလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ လမႈေရးလငစငက ရရေပလမ မည။ (၇) ခငမာသည နစနာမႈယႏယားႏင နစနာေၾကးေပးျခငးမတစဆင ကစားရနအတြက ကငသးဆ ေစာငၾကည ထနးခပျခငးႏင တးတကေသာ ဥပေဒဆငရာႏင တရားေရးဆငရာမဟတေသာ ယႏယားမားသည ကစၥရပမားက ေျဖရငးရာတြင အေထာကအကေပးမည အရာမားစြာက ျဖစထြနးေစမည။ သယဇာတတးေဖာေရးလပငနးမားအတြက ျပင ဆငခနတြင ယငးအေျခခမမားသည မားစြာေသာလပငနးက႑မားတြင အသးျပႏငမညျဖစသည။ အႏစခပႏင နဂးမား စးပြားေရးမားႏင စြန႔စားရႏငေျခအလးစက ယငးသည ၿငမးခမးေရးႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးက အေထာကကျဖစသေလာ၊ အဟန႔ အတားျဖစေစသေလာဆသည အျမငမ ဆနးစစႏငသည။ ကြျပားေသာ က႑မားတြင ကြျပားေသာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားႏင အကးအျမတမားရေနၿပး အခ႕က႑မားတြင စြန႔စားရႏငေျချမငမားေနခနတြင မားစြာေသာ စးပြားေရးလပငနး က႑ မားကေပးသည ၀နေဆာငမႈမားက အလားတစြန႔စားရႏငေျခမပါဘ ရပရြာမားက ႀကဆၾကဖြယရသည။ ယငးက႑ မားသည ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈဥးတညရာႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥ အလးစေပၚ အေပါငးလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ သကေရာကမႈတစခ ပျဖစဖြယရသည။ ေျမယာကစၥရပမားတြင ေျမယာအသးျပမႈအေပၚ ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈႏင ေျမယာအသးျပမႈကစၥရပမား တြင ရပရြာသေဘာတညမႈသည လပငနးလညပတရန လႈမႈေရးလငစငရရရနအတြက အလြနအေရးႀကးသည။ အျမတ ခြေ၀ျခငးႏင အရညအေသြးျမင ရငးျမစစမခန႔ခြမႈသည တငးရငးသားအပစမားတြင ေသာခကကေသာ ကစၥရပမားျဖစ သည။ လမးညႊနအေျခခမမားႏငအည သယဇာတတးေဖာေရးႏင အျခားက႑မားတးတကရနအတြက အႀကျပခကမားရရ ႏငပါသည။ ၿငမးခမးေရးက အေထာကအကျဖစေစရန ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးက႑မား၏ ဥးစားေပးႏငေရာငရားရန၊ ဆငးငထား ရနသ႔မဟတ အထးႀကတငသတျပရနမားက သကဆငသအားၾကား သေဘာတညခကယျခငးေပၚ ပမလပေဆာငရန အႀကျပပါသည။ ရပရြာဥးေဆာငေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးစမကနးခဥးကမႈမားသည ပဋပကၡျဖစမႈပမနညးပါးဖြယရသည။ အရညအေသြးျပည႔၀ေသာ စမကနးမားက အေထာကအကျဖစေစရန မားစြာေသာ စးပြားေရးလပငနးနညးနာမားလညး ရရႏင ပါသည။ စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးမားက ထညသြငးစဥးစားျခငးသည ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈက ၿငမးခမးေရးက မညသ႔ အေထာကအကျပေစသည သ႔မဟတ မညသ႔အဆးအတားျဖစေစသညက ျပသလကရသည။ ဆရလင ယခေနာက တြငမ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားႏင အစအစဥေရးဆြသမားသည စြန႔စားရႏငေျခနမၿပး စြန႔စားရႏငေျခေလာပါးေအာင လပ ႏငစြမးပရေသာ ျပညသမား ပမပါ၀ငမႈအေပၚ ဥးတညႏငၿပျဖစသည။ ရပရြာအသအေပၚ ေနာကဆးပတအေတြးစမား အစးရ၊ လပငနးႏင ျပညသ ေဆြးေႏြးပြမားအတြငး မးေမာငးထးျပခသည ရပရြာလထ၏ ေရြးခယပငခြင၊ သ႔မဟတ ႏငငသားဥးေဆာငေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးသေဘာတရားအေပၚ မတခကျပၾကသညမာ “------ လကမၸဏေတြကေတာ ေကာငး မြနတ စခနစညႊနးေတြက လကနာပါတယ. #### ကမၸဏေတြကပ အခအခန ဒက၀ငလာေသးတာ။ ျမနမာႏငငက ၀ငလာၿပး အလပလပဖ႔ ------------ လ ကမၸဏေတြလ႔ အေကာငးအဆးအေလအထရတ ကမၸဏေတြက ဖတေခၚဖ႔ ကၽြနေတာတ႔မာ အခြငအေရးမရသငဘးလား။ အနမဆးအရညအေသြးရတ ကမၸဏေတြ
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ဒကလာတာက ကၽြနေတာတ႔ မလလားဘး။ အေကာငးဆးကမၸဏေတြဒကလာဖ႔ ကၽြနေတာတ႔ ဖတေခၚလပါတယ” စသည မတခကမားျပခၾကသည။ အကယ၍ ႏငငသားတစေယာကသည ေရြးခယႏငသညအေနအထားတြငရခ လင စးပြားေရးလပငနးႏင ၿငမးခမးေရး အတြက ပၿပးဟနခကညေသာအေျခခတစခထြကေပၚလာမညျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာႏငင၏ ႏငငသားျဖစမႈ အကပအတညးက စဥးစားၾကညျခငး
Thinking about Myanmar’s Citizenship Crisis
Ian Holliday The University of Hong Kong
ႏငငသားျဖစမႈသည ႏငငသားျဖစမႈႏငဆငေသာ အျပငပနးေပၚလြငသည သ႐ပသကန သ႔မဟတ
အမတအသားသ႐ပတ႔ အတတကြရၿပး ႏငငသားျဖစမႈႏငဆငေသာ အခြငအေရးမားႏင တာ၀နမားက
ေပါငးစညးထားျခငးျဖစသည။ ႏငငသားျဖစမႈဆငေသာ အခြငအေရးမားတြင အဓကအခြငအေရးသးရပ
ရသညဟ T. H. Marshall က ၁၉၄၉ ခႏစတြင ဆခသည။ ျပညသျပညသားဆငရာ အပငး တြင
တစဥးခငးလြတလပခြငအတြက လအပေသာ အခြငအေရးမားပါ၀ငသည။ ႏငငေရးဆငရာ အပငး တြင
ႏငငေရးအာဏာက ရယကငသးရာတြင ၀ငေရာကေဆာငရြကခြင ပါ၀ငသည။ လမႈေရးဆငရာ အပငး တြင
သငတငေသာ စးပြားေရးအကးခစားခြင၊ လမႈေရးဆငရာ အေမြအႏစ အျပည႔အ၀ မေ၀ခြငမသည
လ႔အဖြ႕အစညးတစခတြင ျပဌာနးထားသည အဆငအတနးမားႏငအည ဘ၀ရပတညရငသနခြငမား အထ
အလးစပါ၀ငသည။ မားစြာေသာ မကေမာကေခတလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမား၏ ထညသြငးစဥးစားဖြယ လမးေရး
ႏင တငးရငးသားမးစမႈက ဆပကငမေစရန စတတေျမာကအပငးက ပညာရငမားက မၾကာေသးမကပင
ထပမထညသြငးခၾကသည။ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ အပငးတြင တစစတရာေသာ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ အေမြ
အႏစက အသအမတျပေဖာထတျခငးႏင ျပစပးေထာငျခငးတ႔ပါ၀ငသည။ ယေန႔ကာလတြင ကြျပား ေသာ
လ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားတြင အေလအထမား သသသာသာျခားနားေနလငကစား ကငသးေလရၾကသည
ႏငငသားျဖစမႈအခြငအေရးမားမာလညး မကႏာစာမားစြာရကာ ျပညသျပညသားဆငရာ၊ ႏငငေရး ဆငရာ၊
လမႈေရးဆငရာႏင ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာမကႏာစာမားျဖင လႊမးၿခထားသည။ ယငးတ႔က ႏငင တစႏငငအား
သစၥာခရာတြင လကနာရမညတာ၀န၀တရားမားပါ၀ငသည ႏငငသားျဖစမႈႏငဆငေသာ တာ၀နမားျဖင
ခနညထားသည။ ယငးမဆငးသကလာေသာ ေနာကထပတာ၀နတစရပရပကလညး လကနာေစသည။
အဆပါ အပငးမားစြာက အတအကြလကနာကငသးျခငးခနတြင ရလဒမာ ႏငငသား ျဖစမႈႏငဆငေသာ
အျပငပနးေပၚလြငသည သ႐ပသကန သ႔မဟတ အမတအသားသ႐ပတ႔ ျဖစသည။ ႏငငတငးရငဆင
ေနရေသာ ေသာခကကသညကစၥတစရပမာ ႏငငသားျဖစမႈႏငဆငေသာ အမတ အသားသ႐ပက အသ
အမတျပရန တညျဖစမႈ သ႔မဟတ မးစကြျပားမႈပမာဏပငျဖစသည။
ျမနမာႏငငတြင အဓကမကႏာစာေလးခပါေသာ ႏငငသားျဖစမႈအကပအတညးတစခႏင လတတေလာ
ရငဆငႀကေတြ႕ေနရသည။ ေယဘယအားျဖငဆရလင ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒႏင ေနာကထပ
ျပဌာနးေသာ ဥပေဒမားတြင ျပဌာနးခကမားအရ ႏငငသားျဖစမႈက ကယျပန႔လသည ဆးတားျဖတ
ေတာကမႈ တစခရေနသည။ ျပညသျပညသားႏငဆငေသာအခြငအေရးမား အလးစရရျခငးမရဘ
ျပညေထာငစအဆင႔ ႏင႔ တငးေဒသႀကး/ျပညနယဆငရာအဆငမားတြင လႊတေတာကယစားလယမားက
ေရြးေကာကတင ေျမာက ရာတြင စစတပကတက႐ကခန႔အပျခငးျဖင ႏငငေရးဆငရာအခြငအေရးမား
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ျဖတေတာကခထားရကာလမႈေရးဆငရာအခြငအေရးမားသညလညး မရသလျဖစေနၿပး ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ
အခြငအေရးမားသည မားစြာေထြျပားေနသည။ အဆပါအခငးအကငးအတြငး အကပအတညးတြင ပၿပး
အေသးစတကေသာ မကႏာစာသးရပရေနသည။ ပထမဆးတစခမာ ရခငျပညနယရ ႐ဟငဂာမားက
တက႐ကပစမတထားသညႏငငသားျဖစမႈျငငးပယျခငးျဖစၿပးတငးျပည၏အျခားေဒသမားရ မြတစလင
အပစမား အတြက ႐ႈပေထြးမႈမားတးပြားလာလကရသည။ ေနာကထပတစခမာ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာထတ
ေဖာေျပာဆပငခြင အေပၚ ထးထးျခားျခား ကန႔သတျခငးျဖင တရား၀င တငးရငးသား လနညးစမား အားလး
ကသကေရာကသညႏငငသားျဖစမႈကပစမတထားကန႔သတျခငးျဖစသည။ ေနာကဆးတစခကမ သဘာ၀
အရကြျပားျခားနားမႈတစခ႕ရသည။ ႏငငအတြငးႀကးစးထားေသာဗမာလမားစကသတမတသညႏငငသား
ျဖစမႈ၊ ကယျပန႔သည ပငစးပငနငးျပမႈ သ႔မဟတ ေမာငပငစးျခငးျဖစသည။ Matthew J. Walton
ႏႈငးယဥျပခကအရ အေမရကနျပညေထာငစႏင အျခား အေနာကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားတြင လျဖအခြင
ထးခမႈကရရသည မားစြာေသာေကာ႐းမကႏာစာမားႏင ဆငတသည။
ျမနမာ၏ႏငငသားျဖစမႈအကပအတညးကဆနးစစရာတြငႏငငသမငး၏တစမထးေသာသြငျပငလကၡ
ဏာမားက မးေမာငးထးျပသညသမငးဆငရာခဥးကပမႈတစချဖငအတြငးသ႔ၾကညျခငးသ႔မဟတ အျခား
ႏငငမား၏ အေတြ႕အႀကႏငေယဘယတညခကမားကရာေဖြသညႏႈငးယဥခဥးကပနညးတစချဖင
အျပငသ႔ၾကညျခငးတ႔ ျဖစႏငဖြယရသည။ ယချဖစရပတြငအတြငးသ႔ၾကညျခငး၌ နယခ႕၀ါဒႏင
အာဏာရင၀ါဒအေပၚအာ႐စကၿပးခဥးကပလသည။ တငးရငးသားမား၏ ျပယဂသညကလနေခတအတြငး
အေျခတညျဖစေပၚလာၿပး ေတာငအာရသားမား ျပညတြငးသ႔ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးအေျခခေစရန နယျခားမားက
ဖြငေပး ချခငးသည ယငးေတာငအာရသားမား ကမမတ႔ႏငမးမတေသာ တငးတပါးသားမားအျဖစ
ျမငၾကေလရေအာငတြနးပ႔ေပးခသည။ အစြနးေရာကအျမငတစရပမာအစြသနေသာလမးႀကး၀ါဒသည
၁၉၆၂ ခႏစမစခၿပး ၂၀၁၁ အထေရာကခသညဟဆရမညအာဏာရင၀ါဒ၏ အသြငအျပငတစရပ
ျဖစချခငးျဖစသည။ ယငးအျမငမ ခဥးကပလင ႏငငသားျဖစမႈ အေရးသည ျမနမာႏငငတြငတစခတညး
ေသာခကခသညအရာျဖစေနပရသည။ ဆန႔ကင ဘကအားျဖင ျမနမာႏငငအေရးတြငအျပငသ႔ၾကညျခငး
ျဖင ၾကညမညဆလငလမး သ႔မဟတ တငးရငးသားအထကေအာကစနစမဒမကရကတစႏငငသားျဖစမႈ
သ႔ ေျပာငးေရႊ႕မႈတစခက စမးသပျပလပသည ေခတသစႏငငမားစြာ ႀကေတြ႕ခရသညေယဘယ မကခ႐
စနေခၚမႈမားသ႔ ေရာကရသြားမည ျဖစသည။ အဆပါအျမငတြင ျမနမာႏငငတြငသးျခားျဖစၿပး အေရး
ေပၚျဖစသည အသြငအျပငမားစြာ ရသညတင လကရရငဆငေနရေသာကစၥရပမားတြင တစမးတညး
သ႔မဟတ တစႏငငတညး သာမဟတေတာဘ ႏႈငးယဥႏငေသာ အေတြ႕အႀကမားမ ေလလာသငယ
ႏငသညမာ အေသအခာပင ျဖစသည။ အာရႏငငမားစြာက အဆပါကစၥရပမားက စတငကငတြယခခနက
ဖြ႕ၿဖးၿပး အေနာက ႏငငမားတြင ကာလအရညဆးႀကေတြခရသည အေတြ႕အႀကမားကသ႔ ယဥေကးမႈ
ဖလယဒငယာ ေလာမား၊လနညးစအပစမားအားအသအမတျပျခငးမားႏငေနရာခထားျခငးႏငဆကႏြယ
ေနေသာေမးခြနးမားျဖငသာစတငခၾကသည။ အဂၤလပစကားေျပာအေျခခေနထငသမားျဖစၾကသည
ၾသစေၾတးလ၊ ကေနဒါ၊ နယးဇလန၊ အေမရကနျပညေထာငစတ႔ ႏင မးစကြျပားမႈမားျပားသည
ဘယလဂယန၊ နယသာလန၊ ယေကႏင စကငဒေနးဗးယနးႏငငမားသည ယငးလမးက အေရာကႏငဆး
ေလာကခသညႏငငမားျဖစၾကသည။ ထ႔အတ ကလသမဂၢႏင အျခားေသာခကကသညအဖြ႕အစညးမား
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က ေစာင ၾကညကြပကႏငမည စခနစညြနးမားခမတရာတြင ယငးႏငငမားက အကအညျဖစေစခသည။
ထပစမးသည အာရအခငးအကငးႏင အဆကအစပမရသညအတြက ႏႈငးယဥေလလာသးသပမႈျပရာတြင
သတ ႀကးစြာထားၿပး ကငတြယရနလၿပး ျဖစႏငဖြယရာမရျခငးမဟတေပ။
မားစြာေသာ အေနာကႏငငမားသည မၾကာေသးေသာ ဆယစႏစမားတြင ႏငငသားအခြငေရးတညမႈ၊
ယဥေကးမႈမးစ၀ါဒႏင ႏငငသားဆငရာေပါငးစညးမႈမား၏ ေအာငျမငေသာ အဆငသ႔ ကယကယျပန႔
ျပန႔ေရာကရသြားခၿပးျဖစသည။ ႏငငသားအခြငအေရးတညမႈအတြက ၁၉၅၀ ျပညႏစမားႏင ၁၉၆၀ ျပည
ႏစမားတြငအေမရကနျပညေထာငစမအထကမလာေသာ ေခါငးေဆာငမႈျဖင ျဖစထြနးခသည။ ယဥေကးမႈ
မးစ၀ါဒအတြကမ ၾသစေၾတးလႏငကေနဒါတ႔သည ၁၉၇၀ ျပညႏစမားမစၿပး မတသားေလာကစရာ
အေရးပါခသည။ ႏငငသားေပါငးစညးမႈအတြက ေျမာကမားလစြာေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးၿပးႏငငမားက ေသာ
ခကကေသာေနရာမ ပါ၀ငခၾကသည။ ယေန႔ကာလတြင ယဥေကးမႈမးစ၀ါဒသည ကယကယျပန႔ျပန႔
ဥးေဆာငဥးရြကျပခသမားၾကား အျငငးပြားဖြယရာအျဖစဆးျဖစေနၿပး ေထာငစႏစကးေျပာငးခနကတညး
က အေနာကႏငငအမားစတြင အမားစ၏ သသာထငရားေသာ ေ၀ဖနမႈမားႏင ရငဆငႀကေတြ႕ ခရသည။
၂၀၁၀-၁၁ ခႏစတြင ယဥေကးမႈမးစ၀ါဒသည “အလးစ က႐ႈး” ခသညဟ ဂာမန၀နႀကးခပ
အနဂလာမာကယက ေျပာခၿပး ျပငသစသမၼတ နကလပစဆာေကာဇလညး “ေသဆး” သြားခၿပဟဆခကာ
ၿဗတသ၀နႀကးခပ ေဒးဗစကငမရြနးကလညး အလားတမတခကမးေပးခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ၂၀၁၀
တြငယဥေကးမႈမးစ၀ါဒမ၀ါဒအညႊနးကနးအရအမားစေသာ အဓကကသညႏငငမားတြငယဥေကးမႈမးစ
၀ါဒသည အေတာအသငကယျပန႔ခသညကေတြ႕ရၿပး နယသာလနႏငငတစႏငငတညးတြငသာေနာကျပန
သြားသည႔အေျခအေနမးရခသည။ထ႔ႏစမာပငေရႊ႕ေျပာငးအေျခခႏငထငသမား၏ ေပါငးစညးႏငမႈ အညႊနး
ကနးကလညးအလားတ ရလဒမးထတျပနခသည။ထ႔ေၾကာင မျငငးႏငေသာအျငငးပြားဖြယရာမား ရသည
တငလနညးစမားအတြကမးစကြျပားမႈကေဖာေဆာငရနႏငအကာအကြယမားကတညေဆာငရန
ယဥေကးမႈမးစ၀ါဒက မ႑ငျပရနမာ မားစြာေသာႏငငမားတြင ျပညသ႔ေရးရာမ၀ါဒ၏ ေသာခကကေသာ
လကၡဏာတစရပအျဖစရေနေသးသည။ ထ႔ျပင ႏငငသားေပါငးစညးမႈက အသြငကြျပားမႈတစခအျဖစ
ျမငတငခစဥအလကသငေနလသမားကလမားစယဥေကးမႈကလကခေရးက ပမႀကးပမးခၾကၿပး
ယငးသညပင ယဥေကးမႈမးစ၀ါဒတြင ေယဘယျဖစေသာ လကၡဏာမားစြာက ျပနလညရရေစခသည။
ယငးမ၀ါဒမားစတငကငစြျခငးသည အေနာကႏငငမားတြငကယကယျပန႔ျပန႔လကခထားသညလနညးစ
အပစမားအား အမးအစားသးခခြျခားျခငးျဖစသည။ တစဖန ယငးသည အာရအခငးအကငးသ႔ တက႐က
လႊေျပာငး ႏငဖြယမရေသာလညး အစအစဥတကျဖစရနအေထာကအကျပႏငၿပး ေတြးေခၚမႈကႏႈးဆြေပး
ႏငဖြယရသည။ အပစသးခမာႏငငေတာ၏နယေျမအတြငး အကန႔အသတရေသာ သမငးတစခသာရသည
ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးအေျခခလနညးစမား၊ အလြနေ၀းကြာသညကာလအထျပနေကာကႏငသညသမငးမားရသည
နယပယသစတြင အေျခခေနထငရာႏငငေတာမားရကနဥးတငးရငးသားမားႏငဖႏပခထားရေသာ အမး
သားႏငငဘ၀၏ အခ႕ ေသာ အစတအပငးမားအျဖစ ေခၚဆႏငမညအမးသားလနညးစမားျဖစၾကသည။
ျမနမာႏငငသညနယပယ သစတြင အေျခခေနထငသညႏငငေတာတစခ မဟတသညအတြက အဆပါ
အမးအစားသးခတြင ဒတယေျမာကအမးအစားက တက႐ကအသးျပရန ျဖစႏငမညမဟတေပ။
ဆန႔ကငဘကအားျဖင ယငး၏ လကရ အေျခအေနမားအရ အျခားအမးအစားႏစခသည
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ထညသြငးစဥးစားႏငဖြယရေသာ ဆေလာမႈရပရသည။
ယဥေကးမႈမးစ၀ါဒ မ၀ါဒအညႊနးကနးသည ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးအေျခခေသာ လနညးစမားႏငဆကစပသည
မ၀ါဒရစ မးျဖင ခြျခားသတမတသည။ ယငးတ႔မာ ႏငငေရးခြျခားမႈမရျခငး၊ ေကာငးသငခနးစာမားက
ျပနလညျပငဆင ျခငး၊ မဒယာအကဆတမႈ၊ အ၀တအစားသတမတခကစႏင အျခား ကငးလြတခြငမား၊
ႏစႏငငသားခယမႈ၊ ယဥ ေကးမႈဆငရာ လႈပရားမႈမားအတြက ဘ႑ာေငြေထာကပမႈ၊ ဘာသာစကား
သငတနးအတြက ဘ႑ာေရး ေထာကပမႈႏင လမး၊ အသားအေရာငအရ အႏမခရျခငးခြျခားေရးကင
စဥတ႔ျဖစသည။အမးသားလနညးစ ႏငဆကစပသည မ၀ါဒေျခာကမးရသည။ ၊ဖကဒရယစနစ၊
႐းသးဘာသာစကားအဆငအတနး၊ ႏငငေရးကယစားျပမႈ၊ ဘာသာစကားသငတနးအတြက ဘ႑ာေငြ
ေထာကပမႈ၊ ႏငငေရးအရခြျခားမႈမရျခငး၊ ႏငငတကာျမငသာမႈတ႔အေပၚ အာ႐စကသည မ၀ါဒတ႔ ျဖစသည။
အဆပါအခကအလကမားအားလးက အငတာနကတြငအသငရရႏငၿပးကယျပန႔ ေသာ စကားအေျခ
အတငေဆြးေႏြးမႈႏင ေလလာသးသပမႈမားျပလပႏငသည။ ျမနမာႏငငက အဆပါအခငးအကငး ျဖင
ဆနးစစျခငးျဖင မားစြာသငယႏငမညမာ ရငးလငးေနသည။ တငးျပညသည ယေန႔အခနအထ အေျခခ
ႏငငသားဆငရာ အခြငအေရးမား ညမမႈမရေသးေပ။ မးစကြျပားေသာ လမး၊ တငးရငးသား သ႔မဟတ
ယဥ ေကးမႈဆငရာ ေရာေႏာမႈတစခႏင အျခားႏငငမားက အေကာငအထညေဖာသည အနညးငယေသာ
မ၀ါဒမား သာရသည။ ယခအခနအထ ျမနမာႏငငသည မးစကြျပားေသာ အမးသား၀ေသသတစခ
ေဖာေဆာငရန ႀကးပမးမႈအနညးငယသာျပလပခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး လကတေလာေဖာေဆာငေနေသာ
ႏငငေရးျပျပင ေျပာငးလမႈမႈမားသည ဒမကရကတစႏငငသားျဖစမႈတညေဆာကေရး နညးလမးတစရပ
အၿဖစ လပေဆာငရန အခြငအလမးတစရပက လမးဖြငေပးထားသည။
ျမနမာႏငငသားျဖစမႈအကပအတညးက ေျဖရငးရန နညးလမးမားက စဥးစဥးျခငးသည အခကအခ
အျဖစရေနဆျဖစသည။ လမးေရးအတြက သညးခမႈသညသာထားရျခငးသည အျဖစမေနေျဖရငးရမည
အခကျဖစသည။ ယငးကေျဖရငးရန ဒမကေရစအင အားစမားသာမက ဘာသာေရးႏင စစဘကေခါငး
ေဆာငမားအပါအ၀င အေသြးအေရာငစ ႏငငေရး အငအားစ မားက ျမငသာေသာ လထေထာကခမႈက
ရရရနလအပေပလမမည။ ယငးႏငအၿပငတြင ႏငငသားအားလးအတြက ႏငငသားဆငရာႏင ႏငငေရး
ဆငရာ ညမမႈမားရရရန မလြမေသြ လအပသည။ ယငးႏစဆကစပၿပး ယဥေကးမႈခငးကးလးဆကႏြယမး
စကြျပားမႈ၏ ႏငငေရးခယခကအျပည အ၀က ရရႏငမည။ မ႑ငကေသာ ယငးအဂငဒါကလြနလင
ျပနာပမရစရာႏငစရာရေနဆျဖစၿပး ပညာေရး၊ မဒယာႏင ယဥေကးမႈကသ႔ေသာ ေသာခကကသည
နယပယမားတြင အျပသေဘာေဆာငသည မ၀ါဒ အေျပာငးအလမား လအပလမမညျဖစသည။ သ႔တင
ကနဥးေဖာေဆာငမႈမားက မတညေသာ ကမၻာလးဆင ရာ အခငးအကငး အမးမးတြငလပေဆာငခၿပး
ျဖစကာ ျမနမာမ၀ါဒခမတသမား၏ ေလလာသးသပမႈလညး ရရႏငသည။ ယငးတ႔ကၾကညလကျခငးျဖင
ဆး႐ႈးစရာအေၾကာငးမျမငဘ ရႏငစရာရသည အလာအလာမားစြာ ရသည။
ျမနမာႏငငသားျဖစမႈအကပအတညးကေျဖရငးရာတြင လပငနးအမားစက ျပညတြငးအေနအထားအားျဖင
ျပလပရနလအပသည။ လမးေရး၊ အခြငအေရးမားႏင ပမမးစကြျပားေသာ အမးသား၀ေသသအေပၚ
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ေခါငး ေဆာငမႈျပေနၾကသည ႏငငတြငး၌ ထပပငးအဆငႏင ေအာကေျခလထအဆငႏစမးစလးသည
ပါ၀ငၾကရ မညျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး တစခနတညးမာပင ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးသည မးစကြျပား
မႈအတြက လကရေဆာငရြကေနေသာ အားပါးတရေထာကပမႈကျပသျခငးျဖငလညးေကာငး၊ပညာေရး
ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ၊ မဒယာသငတနးေပးျခငး၊ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာျပနလညဆနးသစျခငးႏင ကမၻာလးဆငရာ
ထေတြ႔ဆကဆျခငးတ႔ ၏ နယပယမားတြင မ၀ါဒဆငရာေဆာငရြကမႈမားက ဘ႑ာေငြေထာကပရနက
ညျခငးျဖငလညးေကာငးျပညတြငးအားထတမႈမားကအေထာကအပေပးႏငသည။ ႀကပမးေဆာငရြကမႈမား
က လမးေရးႏင တငးရငးသား ထကေအာကပစ၏ ေထာငလကပစမားမ ယဥေကးမႈျခငးကးလးဆကႏြယ
မးစကြျပားမႈအေပၚတညေဆာက ထားသည ဒမကရကတစႏငငသားျဖစမႈ၏ အလားလကပစမားက
အေကာငအထညေဖာျခငးမျပလင ကယျပန႔ေသာအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈက ေအာငျမငစြာအေကာငအထည
ေဖာၿပး တးတကမႈျဖစထြနးမႈက ေတြ႕ျမင ႏငရန ခယဥးသြားမညျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာႏငငေရးႏင စညးလးညညြတေရး၏ေရာဂါေဗဒ
Burmese Politics and the Pathology of Unity
Matthew J. Walton George Washington University/St Antony’s College, Oxford University
ျမနမာႏငင၏ လကရႏငငေရး အသြငးကးေျပာငးမႈတြင ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားသည အလြနလငျမနလြနျခငး ေၾကာင ျပညတြငးေကာ ျပညပတြငေနထငၾကသည ျပညသမားက ေၾကာကရြ႕စးထတမႈမား စတငထတ ေဖာျပသခသည ပြငတစခသ႔ ေရာကရေနသည။ ယငးေၾကာကရႊ႕မႈမားေၾကာင အမးမးေသာ ဖယၾကဥ ခ အပစမားက (အကယ၍ကယပငအပခပမႈတးတကမရရခလင) အသအမတျပျခငးအတြက ေတာငး ဆမႈမားေပၚေပါကလာေလရသည။ ေယဘယအကဆးဆရလင ျမနမာႏငငတြင အဆပါ တငးရငး သားလနညးစမားသည ဆယစႏစေပါငးမာစြာ ဗမာလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးတြင မမတ႔၏ အကးယတခရေသာ အေနအထား၏ ႏငငေရးအသအမတျပမႈက ရာေဖြေနခၾကသည။ မားစြာေသာ (အမားအားျဖငဗမာ) ႏငငေရးေခါငးေဆာငမား (ႏငႏငငျခားေလလာေစာငၾကညသမား) ထမလာသည ေယဘယတ႔ျပနမႈမာ ထလြယရလြယအသြငကေျပာငးေရးကာလအတြငး ယငးသ႔ေသာ ပစမးနစနာ ခကမားက ကယကယ ေလာငေလာငထတေဖာျပသျခငးသည အလြနအေရးႀကးသညကာလတစခတြင အမးသားစညးလးညညြတ ေရးကပကျပားေစျခငးျဖင ျဖစစဥတစခလးက ပကစးသြားေစႏငသညဟ ဆ ၾကသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင တငးျပညသည ႏငငေရးႏင စးပြားေရးအရ တညၿငမမႈပမရရလာသည အခနတစခ ေရာကသညထယငး နစနာခကမားက ေရႊ႕ဆငးထားသငသည။ ဗလခပေအာငဆနးေမာလငခသည “မးစကြျပားမႈရလကႏင စညးလးညညြတမႈ”ဆသညကကၽြနေတာအေနျဖငမႈ ျမနမာႏငငေရးပစမာ “ဗလကစးမး ျခငးျဖင စညးလး ညညြတျခငး” ႏငပတေနၿပး စညးလးညညြတမႈက ထသ႔တညေဆာကျခငးသညတငး ျပညတြငးရလနညး စအပစမားက ဆကလကလစလ႐ႈၿပး စစမနေသာစညးလးညညြတမႈမကငးကြာေစမညဟသးသပလ ပါသည။ စညးလးညညြတမႈဆသညမာ ျမနမာႏငငေရးေခါငးေဆာငမားၾကား ကလနေခတ၊ စစအပခပေရးကာလ တ႔မသညယေန႔အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလအထ စဥဆကမျပတရခေသာ သေဘာတရားတစချဖစခသည။ အခ႕ေသာစညးလးညညြတမႈေတာငးဆျခငးမားမာမဟာဗဟာ သ႔မဟတ စတပငးဆငရာအေၾကာငးတရား မားအတြကျဖစခေသာလညးယခစာတမးတြငမ ကၽြနေတာသညမနကနေသာ ကင၀တသလအေလအကင သ႔ မဟတစတသနသညအရာ၏ ညႊနးကနးတစခက စညးလးညညြတမႈလပေဆာငခကမား၏ ဗမာဗဒၶ ဘာသာ အယအဆပနညးလမးကသာတငျပလပါသည။ အဆပါစညးလးညညြတမႈအယအဆသည တကယတမး အားျဖင ျမနမာႏငငေရး အ၀နးအ၀ငးအတြငးသ႔ မးစေသာ အသမားႏင ႐ႈေထာငမား၏ ေပါငးစညးပါ၀ငေစရန ေဆာကရြကရာတြင ဒမကေရစ မဆနေသာ နညးလမးတစချဖစၿပးအမးသားျပနလညသငျမတေရးအတြက ခလပကနသငးတစခလညး ျဖစသည။ ထ႔အျပငယငးနညးလမးသညယခငစစအစးရကသာလငကငစြကငသးခသညနညးလမးတစခမသာမဟတ ဘအတကအခႏငငေရးပါတ၀ငမား ႏငတရားမတမႈ၊ တနးတ ညမမႈ၊ ႏင ဒမကေရစဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးကအားထတ ေဆာငရြကရနကတက၀တျဖငဖြ႕စညးတညေထာငထားေသာအဖြ႕မားပငလင ထထေရာကေရာကကငသး ခသည နညးလမး ျဖစသည။ ကယကငသလသေဘာတရားတစခအျဖစ စညးလးညညြတျခငးဆသညမာ ဘရညရြယခကတစခအတြက
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ျမပႏျခငးႏင အပစတစခ သ႔မဟတ အသငးအ၀ငးတစခက သစၥာချခငးျဖစကာ အားလး၏အကးအတြက တစဥးတစေယာက၏ကယပငအကးစးပြားစြန႔ ရနလအပၿပး မမကယကဗဟျပသညအတက ျငငးပယသည ဗဒၶလမးစဥထမ ထတႏတခကပငျဖစသည။ ၁၉ ရာစေႏာငးပငးတြင ေယာအတြငး၀နဥးဖးလႈငက မငးည မငးသားတ႔အားဗဒၶေဟာၾကားခသညတရားေတာထမထတႏတၿပးစညးလးညညြတမႈ၏ ကယကငသလ ဆငရာက ရငးလငးစြာ ရငးျပခသည။ အေရးႀကးေသာ ကစၥရပတစခတြင ညညညြတညြတေအာငျမငရန အားထတရာတြင တစဥးခငးအႀကကေဘးဖယထားရမညဟ သကဆသည။ ထ႔ျပင မညညြတမႈဆသညမာ ပဂၢတစဥးခငး၏ အပစတစစသည မမတ႔၏အကးစးပြားကသာေဆာငရြကၾကသည ရလဒျဖစၿပး ယငးသည ကယကငသလ ပကယြငးျခငး၏ ရလဒျဖစသည။ ကမး၏ေနာကပငးတြင အဂတတရားေလးပါးအေၾကာငးက သက သတေပးခသည။ စညးလးညညြတေသာ နညး လမးတစချဖငလပေဆာငရာတြင ႏငငေရးအဖြ႕အစညးတစခ၏ က႐ႈးမႈမာ အခ႕သမား သ႔မဟတ အဖြ႕၀င အားလးသည အဂတတရားမား၏ လႊမးမးမႈခေနရၿပး ရလဒအားျဖင မမတ႔ကယပငကဥးေျမာငး ေသာ အကးစး ပြားမားအရသာ ေဆာငရြကၾကေတာသည။ အျခားတစဖကတြင စညးလးညညြတေသာ ညလာခသည ယငးတ႔ ၏အဖြ႕၀ငမားသည အဂတတရားကေကာလႊားရနႏင အတကငးမႈ၏ စနမနာအ တငးေဆာငရြကရနသတ႔၏ ကယကငသလမားက တညေဆာကၿပးျဖစေသာေၾကာင ကြျပားမႈမားက တတပပေကာလႊားသြားႏငသညဟ ဆသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင စညးလးညညြတမႈဆသညမာ တစဥးခငးစ၏ ကယကငသလဖြ႕ၿဖးကာ ႏငငေရးဆး ျဖတခကမားခမတရာတြင ကယကယစးပြားထကေကာလြနၿပးလပ ေဆာငႏငစြမးအေပၚမတညေနသည။ ေခတၿပငသးစြေနသညစညးလးညညြတေရးအငဒယာမားလညးယငးသဘာ၀ကပင ကယကငသလ သေဘာ တရားပငျဖစသည။ “၂၀၀၇ ေရႊ၀ါေရာငေတာလနေရး” မတငမလမားက ျမနမာႏငငတြငထတ ေ၀ခသည ေျမေအာကဂာနယတစခတြငပါရသည ေဆာငးပါးတစခတြင စညးလးညညြတမႈဆသညမာ မနကနေသာကယကငသလႏင တစဥးတစေယာက၏လႈပရားမႈက ထနးခပျခငးျဖစသညဟ သဃာေတာ တစပါးကဆသည။ “ညညြတသတ႔မာ ကယ၊ စတအမအရာတ႔ ႐းေျဖာငမႈရျခငး၊ ကယကငသလတရား ေကာငးျခငး၊ ပညာဥာဏဂဏႀကးမားျခငးတ႔ ျပညစေနသညကေတြ႕ရမညျဖစသည”။ “ညညြတျခငးသည မတေသာအသဥာဏ၊ကယကင တရားတ႔ျဖင ထနးခပျခငးတ႔လအပမည” ဟသက ဆကလကေရးသား ထားသည။ ႏငငတစႏငင မညညြတျခငး မာ ျပညသမား ကယကငသလအားနညးျခငးေၾကာငျဖစၿပး ယငးတ႔၏ မမကယက ဗဟျပသညေစေစာမႈမားက ထနးခပရနမတတႏငေသာေၾကာငဟ မတသားရေတာ မညပရေနသည။ စစတပ၏ စညးကမးျပည၀ေသာ ဒမကေရစသေဘာတရားမာ ပါလမနေခတအတြငး ျပငးထနခေသာ ႏငငေရး မၿငမသကမႈက ေၾကာကရြ႕မႈမ ေပၚထြကလာၿပး စစတပကသာ တငးျပညကတစစညးတစလးျဖစ ေအာငကင တြယႏငသည တစခတညးေသာ အငစတကးရငးအျဖစယငးတ႔ဘာသာ ႐ႈျမငေစခသည။ ဒမေရစ၏ကြျပားႏငေသာ အလားအလားမားသညအလားအလာရေသာစညးလးညညြတမႈျပကြမႈ (စစတပ) က ျပလပႏငသည အပစတစခကသာျပလပႏငၿပး ႏငငသားတ႔အေပၚတြငလညး စညးကမးမားျပဌာနးလာ ေစခသည။ ဒမကေရစတညျမေရးက မညသ႔မညပအေကာငအထညေဖာရမညဆသည စစတပ၏အျမငမာ ႏငငေရး တြင သာမနလပဂၢလမား (ပတဇဥ) မား၏ အစြမးအစမာ သသယျဖစဖြယေကာငးၿပး ထသ႔ျဖစလာလင ရလဒက သတထားရမညဟေသာ ေပၚျပလာႏငငေရးတြငပါ၀ငျခငးအေပၚ ေယဘယဗမာအျမငႏငလညး ကကညေန သည။ ထ႔ေၾကာငပင ႏငငသားအမားစသည မမတ႔၏ ကယကးစးပြားမားထကေကာလြနၿပး ေရ႕ဆကလမးရန ကယကငသလဆငရာအေျခခတစခကေရာကရႏငျခငးမရေသးဘ တစႏငငလး
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အေနျဖငအကးျဖစထြနးမည ညညြတေသာနညးလမးတစခတြင အလားအားျဖင အဆးအျဖတေပးႏငသည ဒမကရကတစျဖစစဥတစရပတြင လညးပါ၀ငျခငးမရၾကေပ။ အစးရသတငးစာတစေစာငျဖစေသာ ျမနမာအလငးသတငးစာတြင၂၀၀၈ ခႏစ၌ပါရသည အယဒတာ အာေဘာ တစခတြင ဒမကေရစကမနကနစြာမကငသးျခငး၏အႏရာယမားက စာဖတသမားအားသတေပး ထားသည။ ပါလမန ဒမကေရစေခတမေအာငျမငျခငးမာ ဒမကေရစေၾကာငမဟတဘ ဒမကေရစက ေဖာေဆာငသ ေၾကာငသာျဖစၿပး အာဏာက အတ၀ါဒျဖငကငသးသမားေၾကာငးျဖစကာ ပါတစြ၊ အတစြမားေၾကာငျဖစ သညဟ ေရးသားထား သည။ ေနာကထပအယဒတာအာေဘာတစခတြငလညး စစတပသညသာယငးအတစြကေကာလႊားႏငစြမးရၿပးတငးျပညအကးသယပးႏငသညဆေသာအငဒယာ က ေရးသားခသည။ စညးကမးရစြာပါ၀ငေရး၏ အေရးႀကး ပကပေဖာထားသညမာလညး ႏငငသားအမားစ သည ဆကလကလမးညႊနမႈမရဘ မနကနစြာပါ၀ငႏငရန ကယကငတရား မရေသးျခငးတ႔ျဖစေနၾကသည ဟဆျပနသည။စစတပအျမငအရယငးသ႔ ကယကငတရားမျဖစငျခငးအားအေကာငးဆးခနတြင ႏငင ေတာအားဆန႔ကငသည ႏငငေရးအတကအခမားျဖစလာခၾက သညဟ ဆသည။ “ဒမကေရစစနစေအာကမာပညာရညျမငမားသေတြသာစညးကမးတကေနႏငၿပးအမနအမားက ခြျခား သျမငႏငတယ”ဟအၿငမးစားဗလခပမးႀကးသနးေရႊက၂၀၀၅တြငေျပာၾကားသညမန႔ခြနးတစခ၌ ထညသြငး ေျပာ ၾကားခသည။ ပါလမနေခတကသ႔ တငးျပညမၿငမမသကျဖစမညအေျခအေနက ျပနေရာကသြားမည ျဖစေၾကာငးကလညး သကသတေပးခၿပး စေပါငးဆးျဖတခကခရာတြင ေယာမငးႀကးဥးဖးလႈငေျပာေလ ရသည အဂတ တရားေလးပါးအေၾကာငးကလညး ထညသြငးေျပာၾကားခသည။ ထအဂတတရားေလး ပါးဆသညကေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညကစစတပအားေ၀ဖနရာတြငသးေလရသည။ “စစမနတဒမကေရစ ဆတာ ႏငငသားတငးကဆငျခငႏငစြမးရၿပး အဂတတရားေလးပါးကငးတကယစားလယက ေရြးႏငတအ ခနမာထြနးကားႏငတယ”။စစတပကေဖာေဆာငသညစညးကမးျပည၀ေသာဒမကေရစဆသညမာ ကယ ကငသလႏင ႏငငေရးအရ ထနးေကာငးေပးမည ပစတစရပျဖစၿပး မမတ႔သညသာ ကယကးမငဘ တစႏငငလးအကးစးပြားက ေဆာငကဥး ေပးႏငသည တစခတညးေသာအဖြ႕အစညးအျဖစ ပေဖာထားၿပး (ျပညေထာငစမၿပကြေရး၊ ကယကးစး ပြားမငေရး) မမတ႔၏ စငၾကယေၾကာငးညႊနးဆကာ သတ႔၏ တရား၀ငျဖစမႈအျဖစ စစေခါငးေဆာငမားကျပသေနျခငးျဖစသည။ အဆပါသသယ၀ါဒသည အတတကႏငငေရးေခါငးေဆာငးမားႏင စစတပအေပၚတြငသာ အကန႔အသတ ျဖငရေနသညလညးမဟတေပ။ ၈၈မးဆကေကာငးသားေခါငးေဆာငမငးကႏငသည သအကဥးေထာငမ လြတလာၿပးစတြင ေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးမႈတစခေျဖၾကားရာတြင “စညးကမးရဖ႔န႔ ညညြတဖ႔ အလြနအေရးႀကးပါ တယ။ ကၽြနေတာတ႔ဟာ ဒမကေရစန႔ထကတနေၾကာငး ျပသရပါမယ” ဟေျဖၾကားခသည။ ညညြတမႈေပၚ ယငးသေဘာ ထားသည မမကယမမအပခပမႈတြင ထထေရာကေရာကပါ၀ငျပးကယကငသလစြမးအား (မမတ႔အကးစးပြားကေကာလြနၿပး စဥးစားႏငစြမး) ရရန(အျမ) ႏငငသားတငး၏စြမးေဆာငရညက ေမးခြနးထတသည ဒမကေရစမဆနေသာသေဘာတရားက အားေကာငးေစသည။ ပါတစနစ၏ စေပါငးႏငငေရးလပေဆာငမႈအတြက အျမရေနခေသာ ပပနမႈတစရပလညး ရေနခသည။ ႏငငေရး ပါတမားမားျပားေနျခငးႏင ၁၉၅၈ တနးကကသ႔ အာဏာရ ဖဆပလ ႏစျခမးကြမႈျဖစရပမားက မညညြတမႈ၏ သကေသတစခအျဖစ႐ႈျမငၿပး အစးရႏငႏငငသားမား၏ ကယကငသလပကယြငးျခငး အျဖစလညး ႐ႈျမငသည။ စစအစးရအပခပသည ကာလတစေလာကလးႏငငေရးပါတမားက အပစဖြ႕၀ါဒ၏ သကေသအျဖစဆကလက ႐ႈျမငခၾကၿပး အထးသျဖင အာဏာလြမေပးခသည ၁၉၉၀ ျပညေရြးေကာကပြ ေနာကပငးတြငျဖစသည။ ၁၉၉၈ တြင ျမနမာအလငးသတငးစာ ေဆာငးပါးတစခ၌ ေရးသားခသညမာ “အဖြ႕အစညးမား၏ လႈပရားမႈမားလြတလပ ခြငႏင လြတလပစြာထတေဖာေျပာဆခြငအရဆလင ႏငငေရး
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ပါတမားက ထပတကရငဆငျခငး၊ အာဏာဖ ဆနျခငး ႏင မငးမစ႐ကက မစြန႔လႊတသမကာလပတလး အႏရာယႀကးႀကးမားမားေတြ႕ႏငသည။ ယငးသ႔ ေသာ လြတလပမႈမးသည စညးမဥးစညးကမးေဘာငထ တြငသာ ရရေပလမမည”။ ယခေနရာတြင “ထပတက ရငဆငေရး လမးေၾကာငး” ဆသညမာသေဘာမည မႈတစခခကမလကခလမမညမဟတဘ တငးျပညၿပကြၿပးအစတစတအမႊာမႊာျဖစမညပထမဆးေျခလမး ျဖစသညဟဆလျခငးျဖစသည။ “အာဏာပငမားက ဖဆနျခငး” ဆသညမာလညး အာဏာပငမားသည မညသညအရာေကာငးသညက သၿပး အားလးအကးအတြကလပႏင စြမးရသမားသာျဖစသျဖငအတကအ ခမနသမသည အတႀကးကာလမးလြေနသျဖစသညဟ ဆလျခငးျဖစသည။ ေနာကဆးအားျဖင ညညြတျခငးက ကယကငတရားသေဘာတရားအျဖစေဆြးေႏြးျခငးတစရပသည မမတ႔၏ကယပငအဖြ႕အစညးအတြငးသေဘာထားကြလြမႈကေခမႈနးရနညညြတျခငးဆေသာစကားက ႏငငေရး အေသြး အေရာငစၾကားသးစြခသညသညနညးလမးက လစလ႐ႈရနမျဖစႏငေပ။ ထနညးလမးျဖင ညညြတမႈသေဘာတရားသည စညးကမးထနးခပေရးနညးလမးတစရပအျဖစအလပလပၿပး အဖြ႕အစညး တြငးအျငငးအခက အႏငရရန သ႔မဟတ အစဥအဆကသေဘာထားမတညမႈတစခကအတတ တြငထားၿပး ေရ႕ဆကရနသးၾကသည။ ကယကငတရားဇာတသြငးထားေသာ ညညြတမႈကသ႔သေဘာတရားသည သေဘာထားကြလြျခငး သ႔မဟတ လနညးစအျမငမားက ဖႏပရာတြငသးၾကသညဟ ပညာရငမားစြာက မတခကျပခသည။ မမတ႔၏ မ၀ါဒမားက သေဘာမတသမားအား ကယကငတရားလကနာကငသးမႈက ႐ႈပ႐ႈပေထြးေထြးသ႔မဟတရငးရငးလငးလငးေမးခြနထတျခငးျဖငသးၾကျခငးျဖစသည။ အမးသားညညြတ ေရးအေပၚ ဗမာႀကးစးေသာ သေဘာတရားေၾကာင အမးသားျပနလညေသြးစညးည ညြတေရး အတြက အႀကးမားဆးအတားအဆးတစချဖစသညဟ ကၽြနေတာကဆခနတြင တငးျပညတြငး၌ ဗမာမဟတသ မားႏင အျခားေသာ လနညးစအပစမားၾကားတြငလညး ညညြတမႈႏငပကသကၿပး ကြျပား မႈမားျပညႏကေနၿပးပဋပကၡမားလညးေပၚေပါကေစခသည။ ဥပမာ ခရစယာနမားသည ကရငတငးရငးသား မားၾကားတြငလမားစမဟတသညတင ရစယာနမားသည KNU ၏ ေခါငးေဆာငမႈေနရာမားတြင စးမးထား ၿပး ကရငတငးရငးသား အတကအခ၀ေသသက ခရစယာနအျဖစကယကယျပန႔ျပန႔မတယၾကသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ဗဒၶဘာသာမားက ခြ ျခားသညရလဒထြကေပၚခၿပး လႈပရားမႈအတြငး ဗဒၶဘာသာကရငမားက အသအမတျပမႈမရခေပ။DKBA ႏငKNU တ႔ၾကား အကြအျပသည မးစကြျပားေသာ ႏငငေရးအသကအ၀နး တစခတြင ညညြတမႈရရႏငေရးႏငပကသကၿပး ေရာထပပစျခငးႏင ဗလကစးမးျခငးတ႔၏ အဖကသေဘာ သကေရာကမႈမား၏ ဥပမာတစရပျဖစသည။ ညညြတမႈကကယကငသလသေဘာတစခအျဖစအကဥး႐းဆးျဖတျခငးသညလညး ဗမာဗဒၶဘာသာေလာ ကအျမငအတြငး အနကေကာကခနတြင ႏငငေရးသေဘာတရားအရ ေနာကထပထငရားေသာမကႏာစာ မားထတ ယသညနညးလမးမားျဖငလညး ရၾကသည။ ညညြတမႈသည မနကနေသာကယကငတရားကင သးျခငး၏ ညႊနးကနးတစချဖစသညဆေသာယငးသေဘာတရားအရအပစတစခတြငလပဂၢလမား၏စြမး ေဆာငႏငရညသညကယပငအကးစးပြားဆသ႔တမးညြတတကသည လ႕သဘာ၀က ေကာလႊားႏငမညျဖစ သည။ ယငးလပေဆာငခကမားက ကယကငသလသေဘာတရားအကျဖတခကတစခအ ျဖစ႐ႈျမငျခငး ျဖစသည။ ညညြတမႈကၿခမးေျခာကသသညအတႏြထနစေနၿပး တစကယရညဆႏၵ၏တြငးနကထကေနကာ အသကအ၀နး၏ အကးအျမတအတြက ႐ႈျမငရန သ႔မဟတ လပကငရန မတတႏငသျဖစရမည။ ညညြတမႈ သေဘာတရားက ထနးခပထားသတ႔သည မမတ႔ကယက ကယကငသလအားျဖင ျမငျမတသအျဖစထား ၾကၿပး မမတ႔သည မမတ႔၏ဆႏၵမားက ေကာလႊား ႏငသမားအျဖစ႐ႈျမငကာ အားလးအတြကအကးရမည ပနးတငတစခသ႔ ေရာကရရန တစဥးတစေယာက၏အကးစးပြားမားကပင စေတးသည။
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ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးကာလတြင ေနရာေပာကေနရသမား
The Displaced in Reform
Khin Khin Lwin
UNESCO Yangon [email protected]
ယခအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈကာလအတြငး ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး၀ါဒေတြက ျမနမာႏငငေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈက ဥးေဆာငေနၾကတယ။ ဒါေပမယလညး နယစပေဒသမားန႔ ပဋပကၡ/ပဋပကၡအလြနဇနမားက အေျခအေန ကေတာ မတညၿငမမႈန႔ မလၿခမႈ ျမငမားေနဆပါပ။ တရားမ၀ငကနသြယမႈ၊ သဘာ၀သယဇာတေတြ ထတယမႈ၊ စးပြားေရးမညမမႈန႔ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးစမကနးေတြအတြက အျပငးအထနယဥၿပငေနမႈေတြဟာ ပဋ ပကၡေတြက မးထးေပးၿပး ရပရြာမားန႔ တငးျပညရ႕ အသြငေျပာငးေရးအလားလာက ၿခမးေျခာကလကရ ပါတယ။ ၿငမးခမးေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြေတြမာ စစတပအရာရေတြစတငပါ၀ငလာၾကေပမယ ၿငမးခမးေရးက႑ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈဟာ ေရ႕မတးေနာကမဆတႏင စစဘကဆငရာလႈပရားမႈကငးပျခငးတ႔န႔ ကင တြယရခကတ ကစၥတစရပအျဖစရေနဆပါပ။ ႏငငေရးဆငရာ အေသြးအေရာငစေတြၾကား ညမေသာ အာဏာခြေ၀မႈ၊ ၿငမးခမးေရးျဖစစဥမားန႔ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒဆငရာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးတ႔ဟာလညး ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးျဖစစဥေရ႕ဆကဖ႔ ေမာငးႏငရမယ မရမျဖစကစၥအျဖစ ရေနဆပါ။ တးတကေနပရတ အျပငပနးသ႑ာနရ႕ေနာကကြယမာေတာ တရားမတမႈမရျခငးက နက႐ႈငးစြာရေနပါတယ။ သသာ ထငရားတ လြတလပမႈအသစေတြရရခေပမယ ကနးမာေရး၊ ပညာေရးန႔ အျခား အေျခခ၀နေဆာငမႈေတြ ကေတာ ဆးဆးရြားရြားကန႔သတခထားရဆျဖစၿပး အထးသျဖင အဖယကဥခရဆးန႔ အထခကလြယ ဆးသေတြအတြက မယၾကညမႈေတြ၊ အၾကမးဖကမႈေတြန႔ ဆးရြားစြာျပမႈမားရေနပါတယ။ ျမနဆနတ အေျပာငးအလေတြန႔ စတလႈပရားစရာ အခြငအလမးေတြေပၚထြနးေနေပမယ ကခငန႔ ရမးျပည ေျမာကပငးေတြက ပဋပကၡေတြရ႕ အကးဆကကခစားရတ ရပရြာေတြထမာေတာ မသကမသာ ျဖစေန ပါတယ။ အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးမာ သာမနျပညသေတြ ဘာေတြျဖစေနသလ။ ေရြ႕ေျပာငးခဘ၀န႔ ေနထငရ တာက သကႀကးရြယအမား ဘယလခစားရသလ။ လငယေတြ ရငဆငေနရတ တကယတကပြေတြက ဘာလ။ ကေလးသငယေတြ ေၾကာကရြ႕ထတလန႔ေအာင ဘယသေတြ လပတာလ။ မခငေတြရ႕ ေခါငးထ မာေတာကေလာငေနတ ေမးခြနးကဘာလ။ ဒအခြငအလမးက အသးခၿပး သတ႔ရ႕အသက ေဖာထတကာ ကၽြနမတ႔က သတ႔ကယစားေျပာျပသြားပါရေစ။
ကခငလြတေျမာကေရးအဖြ႕(KIO) သ႔မဟတ အစးရမထနးခပတေဒသေတြမာ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရသ ၆၀၀၀၀ နးပါးရၿပး အစးရထနးခပထားတေဒသေတြမာ ၄၀၀၀၀ နးပါးရပါတယ။ တက႐ကတကခကခရမႈ ဒါမမဟတ စစတပေၾကာငျဖစလာတ အၾကမးဖကမႈေတြက ေၾကာကရြ႕ထတလန႔လ႔ ရြာသားေတြဟာသတ႔ အမေတြကေနထြကေျပးခၾကတယ။ အစပငးတနးကေတာ အေျခအေနက ေစာငၾကညဖ႔၊ သတ႔အမေမြး တရစာၦနေတြက အစာေကၽြးဖ႔န႔ သတ႔စကခငးေတြက ေစာငေရာကဖ႔ လေတြက သတ႔ရြာနားေလး ဒါမမ ဟတ ေတာထမာေနေနခၾကတယ။ တကပြေတြဆကျဖစမယအေနအထားလညးျဖစလာေရာ လေတြဟာ ဘရားေကာငး၀ငေတြ၊ ဘနးႀကးေတြန႔ ျပညတြငးေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရသေတြအတြက သတမတထားတ ဒကၡ သညစခနးေတြက စေျပာငးခၾကတယ။ ရကသတပတေပါငးမားစြာ အသကရငလြတေျမာကခတ လတစ ဥးခငး ဒါမမဟတ အပစလက ကၽြနမေတြ႕ဆၿပး သတ႔ရ႕ ေၾကာကရြ႕စးထတမႈ၊ မေရမရာခစားရမႈ၊ နာကင မႈ၊ စတဒကၡန႔ ႐နးကနမႈေတြက နားေထာငခတယ။ အဒလပဂၢလေတြတစဥးခငးစကေတာ “ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခ
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ရတ သေတြ” ဒါမမဟတ “စစရ႕သားေကာင” လ႔ အမညတပခခရတယ။ သတ႔ရ႕ခါးသးမႈေတြကေတာ အထငအရားပါပ။ “တ႔ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရသေတြလညးမဟတဘး။ စစရ႕သားေကာင ေတြလညး မဟတပါဘး။ ဒါ တ႔ေျမ၊ တ႔ရ႕ ဘးဘြားပငေျမ။ တ႔ဒေျမမာ တ႔ေတြမးဆကေပါငးမားစြာ ေနထငခၾကတယ။ တ႔က ဘယလလပ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရသေတြျဖစရမာလ။ တ႔က ၿမ႕ကလေတြလ ခမးလညးမခမးသာ၊ ပညာ လညး မတတေပမယ တ႔ရ႕ေျမက တ႔ပငတယ။ တ႔အသကေမြးဖ႔ တ႔ပငတေျမမာ တ႔အလပလပၾကတယ။ တ႔ေတြ ဂဏသကၡာရရ ရငသနေနထငၾကတယ။ တ႔ေတြက ဒအေျခအေနေရာကေအာင အဓမၼလပခၾကတာ”။ ဒလခစားမႈမးေတြဟာ ဒကၡသညစခနးေတြမာေနထငရသေတြအားလးမာရၾကတယ။
အတတ၊ ပစၥပန၊ အနာဂတ ကာလသးပါးစလးမာ ဒလပဂၢလေတြရ႕ေျပာတ ဆး႐ႈးမႈ၊ ခ႕ငမႈန႔ ပပနမႈေတြရ ေနပါတယ။ အတတတနးက သတ႔ေတြဟာ သတ႔ဘ၀ရ႕ အလပအကငန႔ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈေတြ ဆး႐ႈးရတာန႔ ရငဆငခၾကရတယ။ ပစၥပနမာလအပခကေတြ၊သကေသာငသကသာျဖစမႈေတြန႔အခြငအလမးေတြ ခ႕ခ႕ငင န႔ ရငဆငေနရတယ။ အနာဂတမာေတာ သတ႔ေတြဟာ လၿခမႈန႔ဆငတကစၥေတြ၊ ေျမယာဆး႐ႈးမႈေတြ န႔ ဘ၀ေတြန႔ေဆြမးသားခငးေတြ ျပနလညတညေဆာကဖ႔ေတြန႔ ရငဆငၾကရမာပါ။ ေဒသမာရတ မားစြာ ေသာ အစးရန႔ အစးရမဟတတလကနကကငအပစတစစ ဒါမမဟတ အားလးရ႕ ဖအားေၾကာင ဒါမမဟတ ကယသေဘာန႔ကယ ေကးရြာေတြက စြန႔သြားခတယ။ တစခ႕ေဒသေတြမာ ကခငတငးရငးသားေတြ န႔ လမးစႏြယ၀ငေတြဟာ အဓမၼေမာငးထတခရေပမ ကနတသေတြက ဆကေနခြငေပးၿပး အမနးခငးေတြန႔ ရပရြာေတြၾကား သသယန႔ကြျပားမႈေတြ ဖနတးၾကတယ။ အျခားေဒသေတြမာေတာ ေဒသခေတြဟာ အဒ လကနကကငအပစႏစစ ဒါမမဟတ ႏစစထကပတအပစေတြရ႕ အခြနေကာကျခငးန႔ အကပကငျခငးခရ ၿပး သတ႔ရ႕ ရငးျမစေတြ၊ သတ႔ရ႕ ႐ပပငးဆငရာန႔ စတပငးဆငရာသာယာမႈေတြ ပကစးခရတယ။ အဒ ရပရြာေတြအတြကေတာ ဘ၀မာ မထငရားဆးအရာေတြမာေတာင ဘယေတာမ တမာမဟတပါဘး။ မသားစေတြ တစကြတစျပားျဖစၿပး တစေယာကက အစးရစစတပအတြက တကပြ၀ငခနမာ ေနာကတစ ေယာကက အစးရမဟတတ လကနကကငအပစ ဒါမမဟတ ျပညသ႔စစအတြက တကေနရတယ။ ေဆြ မးသားခငးအေရးမာ ဆးျဖတခကခခြငအာဏာေၾကာင ဆးရြားတ အကးဆကေတြျဖစခရတယ။ မသား စတငးဟာ သားတစေယာက၊ ႏစေယာက၊ သးေယာကက ေရ႕တနးပ႔ရၿပး တစခါတစေလမာ သားေတြ အားလးက ေရ႕တနးပ႔ခရတယ။ သမးေတြကေတာ ကနးမာေရး၊ ပညာေရး ဒါမမဟတ လမႈေရး၀နေဆာင မႈေတြအတြက ေပးလကရၿပး အဆကအသြယေကာငးေကာငး သ႔မဟတ လႊမးမးမႈေကာငးေကာငးရရင ေတာ သတ႔ကေလးေတြက ပဋပကၡန႔ေ၀းရာဆက ပ႔ႏငတ ေမာလငခကနညးနညးေတာရပါတယ။
ဒကၡသညစခနးမားက ေနအမေတြက အေျခခအားျဖင ၀ါးတငေတြကအသးျပၿပး သြပန႔ ကးထပသားမး ကာထားကာ အၾကမးအားျဖင ၁၀ေပx ၁၅ ေပ အခနးေတြက ၀ါးကပေတြန႔ ကာရထားတာပါ။ တစခ႕ စခနးေတြမာဆရင သြပအစား တာလပတအျပားေတြက အသးျပထားပါတယ။ အဆး႐ႈးခေတြရ႕ ေျမမာ ကၽြနမ သးလနးပါးေလာကေနထငခပါတယ။ ၿပးခတႏစေတြမာ စခနးေတြန႔ ပဋပကၡျဖစပြားရာေဒသေတြ က ရပရြာေတြဟာ တစကယရညသးပစၥညးေတြ၊ အးအမန႔ေျမယာ၊ အသကေမြး၀မး ေၾကာငးမႈ၊ ေကာကပ သးႏန႔ တရစာၦနေတြ၊ ပညာေရးအခြငအလမးေတြ၊ ကနးမာေရး၀နေဆာငမႈေတြ၊ ဂဏသကၡာစတ ဆး႐ႈးမႈေတြန႔ေနထငတကေအာင တစျဖညးျဖညးသငယခပါတယ။ စခနးေတြမာ ေနရာခ႕တတာ၊ မသား စေတြၾကားစညးလးညညြတမႈခ႕တတာ၊ ဆကဆေရးေတြန႔ အဆကအသြယခ႕တတာ၊ အစားအေသာက ခ႕တတာ၊ အသြားအလာခ႕တတာ၊ အလပအကငခ႕တတာ၊ စတခြနအားခ႕တတာ၊ ေမာလငခကခ႕တ တာ၊ အနာဂတမာဘာျဖစလာမလဆတ ေသခာမႈခ႕တတာစတ ခ႕တမႈေတြန႔ေနထငတကေအာင ေန႔စဥ ႐နးကနေနရပါတယ။ စခနးအေတာမားမားမာ ထငးမးလညးရားသလ လတဆတတ အသားငါးန႔ အသး အရြကလညးရားပါတယ။ တစခ႕စခနးေတြမာဆ ထငးေခြဖ႔ မငန႔ခၿပး အေဟာငးေလာငးန႔လမးေလာက
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သြားရတယ။ ေစးေတြကလညး ငါးရကတစေစးပဖြငေပမယ လနညးစပ အစားအေသာက၀ယႏငပါ တယ။ စခနးေတြက မသားစအမားစကေတာ တစေန႔မာ ႏစနပပခကႏငပါတယ။ မနကစာက နနက ၈ နာရ ေလာကမာ ခကၿပး ညေနစာကေတာ ေလးနာရခြေလာကမာ ခကၾကပါတယ။ ခကျပတစားၾကတာ ကေတာ အဓကအားျဖင အသးအရြက၊ သစျမစသစဥေတြျဖစၿပး ေစးေန႔မာဆရငေတာ ဘဥ၊ ၾကကဥ ဒါမ မဟတ ငါးနညးနညးပါပါတယ။ အသားလတလတဆတဆတကေတာ ကၽြနမတ႔တတႏငတအေနအထား မရပါ ဘး။ တစခါတစခါေတာ အသားေျခာက ဒါမမဟတ ငါးပေကာငက ဂးျမစေတြ၊ င႐တသးေတြန႔ ေၾကာ ခကစားတအခါလညးရပါတယ။
သယဇာတၾကြယ၀တအျခားတငးျပညေတြမာလပ အဒေဒသက ပဋပကၡေတြမာမာလညး တစဗလဆငး တစဗလတကန႔ ပစၥညးဥစၥာေတြက သမးႀကးယငငသြားၾကတာပါပ။ အခအခနအထေတာ စစပြမာ ဘယ သႏငႏင တငးျပညက ေစးအျမငဆးေပးႏငသလကထေရာငးဖ႔ သတ႔ေတြၾကား တကပြေတြျဖစၿပး ၿငမး ခမးေရးရ႕ အကးရလဒေတြက ခြေ၀ၾကမာပါ။ တကပြေၾကာင ေဒသခေတြ ထြကေျပးေနရစဥမာ သတ႔ အးအမေတြကေတာ ဆာေလာငၿပး မ၀ေရစာျဖစေနတ ေအာငႏငသေတြက သမး၊ အမးမး ေသာ လကနကကငတပဖြ႕ေတြက ေလာဘေဇာတကေနတ ကငးတပဖြ႕ေတြက သတ႔တရစာၦနေတြက သတျဖတ စားေသာက၊ သတ႔စကခငးေတြန႔ သစေတာေတြက ခတလ၊ သတ႔ရ႕ေျမယာက အာဏာရသေတြရ႕အဆက အသြယန႔ ေဒသခေတြ သ႔မဟတ ျပငပက လေတြက သမးယတာကခၾကရတယ။ လကနကကင ပဋပကၡ အေတြ႕အႀကရၿပး အစးရန႔ ေကအငေအႏစဖြ႕စလးက ကတေတြခးေဖာကတာခရဖးတ လႀကးအမားစက ေတာ ၿငမးခမးတကာလေတြမာ ငတမြတေနတာထကစာရင တကပြ၀ငရငးေသသြားတာက ပၿပး ဂဏ သကၡာရတယလ႔ယၾကညၾကတယ။ မသားစ၊ သငယခငးအေပါငးအသငး၊ ေအာငျမငမႈႏင -စတာေတြက စတကးယဥအပမကမကေနစဥမာ ငယရြယသေတြကေတာ သတ႔ရ႕ မးယစေဆးစြျခငး၊ လငပငးဆငရာ ဆးဆးရြားရြားျပမခရျခငး၊ ၿခမးေျခာကခရျခငး၊ အဓမၼစစသားစေဆာငးခရျခငး၊ ျပညတနဆာအျဖစ သြတ သြငးခရျခငးႏင HIV စတ သတ႔ရ႕ ကယပငတကပြက ဆငႏႊေနၾကပါတယ။ အားလးထမာ အသားက ေအာင အေနတတဆးအပစျဖစတ ကေလးငယေတြကေတာ စးရမေပမယ ဂဏယေနတ သတ႔ရ႕လႀကးသ မေတြရ႕မကစေအာကမာ သတ႔သဘာ၀အတငး အခပအျခယမရဘ ကစားျခငး၊ ေတးဆျခငး၊ ကခနျခငး ေတြကျပေနၾကေပမယ သတျပစရာတစခခရေနၾကပါတယ။
သတ႔ရပရြာေတြ၊ ေျမယာေတြန႔ သကေသာငသကသာရလတ သတ႔ရ႕အမေတြကေန ခြခြာေနရာတာဟာ အလြနပနာၾကငခစားခရပါတယ။ ဂဏယစြာန႔ေနထငလာခတ ဒလေတြအတြကတစေျပးည ရကစရာ ေကာငးေစတာကေတာ ေပးစာကမးစာကလကခရတာ၊ စတျပတၿပး တစကယရညသန႔ရငးမႈလညးမရဘ ကယပငဘ၀၊ ပစၥညးပစၥယန႔ လၿခေရး မရတေနရာမးေတြမာ ေနရေလရတာ၊ ရငးျမစေတြန႔ပကသကၿပး ျဖစလာတ တငးမာမႈေတြေၾကာင ၿမ႕ခရြာခေတြရ႕ ခြျခားဆကဆျခငးန႔ဗလကျခငးခရတာ၊ သတ႔မသားစေတြ က မေထာကပႏငတာ ဒါမမဟတ ႐းရာအစဥအလာအတငးမေနႏငတာ၊ အေရးႀကးတ ႐းရာန႔ ပြလမး သဘငေတြ ကငးပတာမးလ ရပရြာမာ ေမာလငထားတ အခနးက႑က မလပႏငတာ၊ သတ႔ကေလးေတြရ႕ ပညာေရးအခြငအလမး ေရရာဖ႔၊ ဘ၀တစေလာကအေထာကအပျဖစရာက ရာေဖြဖ႔န႔ ၀ငေငြမရတာေၾကာင ၀နေဆာငမႈေတြရဖ႔ပျဖစပါတယ။ လႀကးသမေတြကေတာ အသးမ၀ငျဖစမႈ၊ စတကမႈ၊ ၀မးနညးမႈ၊ သတ႔ဘ၀ ရ႕ အလပန႔ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈေတြ မျပညစမႈစတာေတြဟာ ခစားခကေတြက ေဖာျပၾကတယ။ ဒါေတြဟာ သတ႔သကတမးမာ ေမာလငလ႔မရေတာဘ ျပနမရ ႏငေတာတ ဆး႐ႈးမႈတစရပပါပ။
စခနးေတြမာရတ မသားစေတြဟာ အရကအလြနအကၽြေသာကတာ၊ မးယစေဆြ၀ါးအလြယမရႏငတာ၊ အရညအေသြးမျပညမ၀န႔ လၿခမႈမရတ ေနရာထငခငးေတြ၊ အႏရာယရတအေျခအေနေတြ၊ ေယာကၤားေလး ေတြန႔ မနးကေလးေတြက နးနကပကပရေနတာ၊ အမတြငးအၾကမးဖကမႈန႔ မလခငဘ ကယ၀နေဆာငရတာ
135
ေတြစတ အၾကမးဖကမႈန႔ ဆးဆးရြားရြားျပမမႈေတြက ကးလြနတာ ဒါမမဟတ ရငဆငရာတာေတြရပါတယ။ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးေနထငရသေတြဟာ ဒကၡသညစခနးေတြမာေနထငစဥ ၀ငေငြရာဖ႔ အလြနခကတာေၾကာင လေနထငမႈရ႕ ေနာကဆကဆြအကးဆကေနေတြျဖစတ သငေလာတ ေဆး၀ါးကသမႈ၊ ပညာေရး၊ လၿခစတချခငးက ခစား ရမႈစတာေတြ မကႏာစာအမးမးန႔ရငဆငရၿပး ကယေျခေထာကေပၚကယရပဖ႔န႔ စတပငးဆငရာ ကနးမာ ေရးေတြမာ အႏႈတလကဏၡာေဆာငတ သကေရာကမႈေတြျဖစေစခပါတယ။ အဒ ထခကလြယတ ရပရြာေတြ က လကလပလကစားအလပသမားေတြရ႕ အခြငအလမးေတြဟာလညး ေခါငးပျဖတခရၿပး လပခနညးနညး ပရၾကပါတယ။ သတ႔ေတြဟာ တရားမ၀ငနယျခားျဖတေကာ အလပလပတာ၊ ကယကကယ၊ ရပသရြာသား ဒါမမဟတ မသားစ၀ငေတြက လေမာငခသမားေတြလကထ ေရာငးစားတာမးေတြလ အႏရာယရေသာ လညး မျဖစမေနေရြးရမညဗဟာေတြထ သကဆငးခရပါတယ။ စခနးေတြရ႕ အ၀င၊ အထြကကလညး စခနး ေကာမတမားက တငးတငးၾကပၾကပ စညးကမးထတထားၿပး စခနးအျပငမထြကရ နာရမားန႔ အျပငသ႔ ခရးသြားသက စခနးအျပငတြငထြကတအခနကာလေတြ မတတမးတငတစနစမားေတြထားရပါတယ။ အဒ လလပတာဟာ လေမာငချခငး၊ စစတပ စစသားစေဆာငးျခငးန႔ ျပညတနဆာအျဖစသြငးသြငးျခငးစတ အခြငအလမးေတြ ေလာကေစခဖ႔လ႔ ဆပါတယ။
စစပြျပနျဖစတအခနမာ အၾကာႀကးဆကျဖစေနဖ႔ ဘယသတစဥးတစေယာကကမ မေမာလငခၾကပါဘး။ ပဋပကၡဟာ ဒတယႏစထ၀ငလာခနမာေတာ ပဋပကၡအခနၿပးမာလ၊ အကပအတညး ရညၾကာလာရင ဘာျဖစလာမာလဆတ မေရရာမႈေတြေၾကာင ေၾကာကရြ႕ထတလန႔မႈေတြ ျမငလာပါတယ။ ေရြ႕ေျပာငးေန
ထငရသေတြၾကားမာ သတတရားက လြနစြာအားေကာငးၿပး သတ႔ဘ၀ရ႕ မေရရာေသာ အနာဂတေၾကာင သတ႔ရ႕ ဒေပနာေပခႏငစြမးန႔ သတ႔ဘ၀အတြက ရငသနေနထငလစတေတြဟာလညး ယယြငးလာေနပါ တယ။ သတ႔ေတြ အေျခအေနအရ ဘယလကငတြယမလ။ အမးသမးေတြကေတာ သတ႔ရ႕ စတညစညး စရာေတြက အေတာေလးထတေဖာေျပာဆေလရၾကၿပး တစဥးခငး ဒါမမဟတ အပစေတြလက ဆေတာငး တာေတြ၊ အမနးခငးေတြ၊ မတေဆြေတြန႔ ခစားခကေတြ မေ၀တာေတြ လပၾကပါတယ။ အမးသားေတြက ေတာ သတ႔ရ႕ပါ၀ငမႈဟာ အမးသားေရးက ကာကြယဖ႔ ညညြတၿပး စေပါငးလပေဆာငမႈတစချဖစရမယလ႔ စဥးစားၾကတယ။ သတ႔ရ႕ အနစနာခမႈဟာ ထကတနတအေရးတစခအတြကျဖစတယလ႔ ယဆေလရၾက တယ။ တစခ႕ေတာ အရကေသာကျခငး၊ မးယစေဆးသးျခငး၊ ဆးရြားစြာျပမႈျခငးန႔ အၾကမးဖကျခငးေတြလ အကးမျဖစေစတာမးေတြက လပၾကတယ။
ေျပာငးေရႊ႕ေနထငရသေတြဟာ ၿငမးခမးေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြကေန ဘာက ေမာလငပါသလ။
• လၿခစတခရေသာ၊ ဂဏသကၡာရေသာ၊ အခနတနအမျပနရနႏင ျပနလညအေျခချခငး
• ျဖစစဥကေသခာစြာသၿပးေသာ ဆးျဖတခကခသည ျဖစစဥမားတြင ပါ၀ငျခငး
• အေျခခလအပခကမား ျဖညဆညးျခငး
• ေျမယာႏင အသကေမြး၀မးေၾကာငးအခြငအလမးမား ရရျခငး
ဘ၀မားက ျပနလညတညေဆာကျခငး၊ ဆကဆေရးမားျပနလညထေထာငျခငးႏင ရပရြာအေဆာကအအ မားသတ႔ကယပင၊ သတ႔သားသမးမားႏင သတ႔ေျမးျမစမား၏ အနာဂတက ဆးျဖတပငခြင
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ျမနမာႏငငတ ြငရငးႏးျမ ပႏမႈဆငရာစြန႔စားရႏငေျခဆနးစစမႈ ႏငငတကာရငးႏးျမ ပႏမႈႏင စးပြားေရးလပငနးအေလအထမားဘာေျပာငးလခသလ
Risk Assessment, International Investment and Responsible Business Practice in Myanmar:
What Has Changed?
John Bray Control Risks, Tokyo
၂၀၁၂ ေႏာငးပငးတြင အျပညျပညဆငရာ အဂတလကစားမႈတကဖကေရး အငနဂအ Transparency International (TI) က ထတျပနခေသာ Corruption Perception Index (CPI) အစအရငခစာတြင အမတ ၁၀၀ အနကျမနမာႏငငက ၁၅ မတသာေပးထားခသည။6 CPI တြင အမတ ၁၀၀ သည ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈ အျမငဆးစခနစညႊနး ျဖစၿပး ဒနးမတႏငငက အမတ ၁၀၀ တြင ၉၀ ရရခသည။ ဆန႔ကငဘကအားျဖင ျမနမာသည ဇယား၏ ေအာကဆးေရာကလလတြငရေနကာ ေအာကတြင ဆဒနသာရေတာသညကေတြ႕ရ ပါသည။ CPI ကၾကညလင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ဘာအေျပာငးအလမ မရခဟ ထငျမငရေတာမညပေပါကေန သည။ ႏငငတကာ စးပြားေရးသတငးစာမားက ဖတၾကညေသာအခါ ဆန႔ကငဘကေကာကခကမားက ေတြ႕ရ သည။ ဥပမာဆရလင ဇြနလ ၂ ရကေန႔တြင ထတေ၀သည Wall Street Journal ေဆာငးပါးတစပဒတြင “ျမနမာရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအလားအလာက စတ၀ငစားမႈသည ၿပးခသညႏစအတြငး အလြနစတလႈပရားစရာ ေကာငးသည အဆငသ႔ ေရာကရခသည” ဟ ေရးသားထားသည။7 အကယ၍ တစေယာကေယာကက ပထမဆး၀ါကထက ေရ႕ဆကမဖတေတာလင အရာအားလးေျပာငးလခၿပဟ အလြယတကေကာကခက ခသြားမညျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ဆကဖတၾကညမညဆလင ၂၀၁၂ ၌ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ႏငငျခားရငး ႏးျမပႏမႈပမာဏသည ေဒၚလာ ၁ ဒသမ ၄ ဘလသာရခသညက အလငအျမနသႏငမညျဖစၿပး အၾကမး ဖငးအားျဖင ျမနမာလဥးေရ၏ ဆယပတစပသာရေသာ လာအတြင ရငးႏးျမပႏသညပမာဏႏင အတတ ပငျဖစသည။ ထ႔ျပင အဂတလကစားမႈအဆငမားျမငမားျခငးအပါအ၀င အားနညးေသာ အပခပမႈသည ရငးႏးျမပႏၾကမညသမားအတြက အဆးအတားမားထတြင ပါ၀ငသည။ အခ႕အရာမား ေျပာငးလခေသာ လညး အရာအားလးေတာမဟတေပ။ ႏငငတကာ အျမငမား Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) က ကမကထျပခၿပး မၾကာေသးမက Control Risks အဖြ႕က အဂတ လကစားမႈအေပၚ ႏငငတကာစးပြားေရးလပငနးမား၏ သေဘာထားစစတမးတစခက ေကာကယခသည။8
6 Transparency International ၏ website မာ www.transparency.org ျဖစျပး အစအရငခစာ အျပညအစ ႏငအစအရငခစာျပစရာတြငအသး ျပသညသေတသနနညးစနစမားက အဆပါ website တြငၾကည႐ႈႏငပါသည။ 7 Natasha Brereton‐Fukui, “WEF Meets in Myanmar as Investment Falls Short”, Wall Street Journal, 2 June 2013. http://online.wsj.com
8 သေဘာထားစစတမးအျပညအစက www.controlrisks.com website တြငၾကည႐ႈႏငပါသည။
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ဤစစတမးတြင ကမၻာတစ၀နးရ ကမၸဏ ၃၁၆ ခမ ဥပေဒေရးရာႏင စမခန႔ခြေရး အဆငျမငအရာရမားက ေမး ျမနးခသည။ ယငးစစတမးသည ျမနမာႏငငအားအထးတလည ဥးတညထားချခငးမရေသာလညး စစတမး ေတြရခကမားစြာမာ ေရ႕တြင ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈျဖစစဥမားကရငဆငရာေတာမညႏငငတစင အတြက သင ခနးစာမားစြာရရမညျဖစသည။ ပထမဆးေမးခြနးတြင အဂတလကစားမႈအႏရာယ၏ ျဖစလာႏငဖြယရေသာ ေနရာဧရယာငါးမးစာရငးမ ယငးတ႔အေလးထားရဆးႏစမးက ေျဖဆသမားအား ေမးျမနးခသည။ ရလဒမာေအာကပါအတငးျဖစသည။ ဥပမာ အေကာကခြန၊ ရအရာရ သ႔မဟတ အဂတလကစားမႈတကဖကေရးအတြက တာ၀နရ ေသာ အခြနစစေဆးေရးအရာရမားက လာဘေပးရနေတာငးဆျခငးကသ႔ေသာ လပငနးေခာေမြ႕စြာလည ပတႏငေရးႏငပကသကသည စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားက ေျဖဆသ ၅၈ ရာခငႏႈနးက ေရြးခယခသည။ ဥပမာ လပ ငနးႏငပကသကသည ပြစားမား၊ အတငပငခမားကသ႔ တတယလမားႏင မမကမၸဏၾကားဆကဆ ေရး ႏငပကသကေသာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားက ၅၂ ရာခငႏႈနးက ေရြးခယခသည။ ဥပမာ ကနထ႐ကရရန အတြက လာဘေပးရနေတာငးခမႈမးကသ႔ စးပြားေရးလပငနးေအာငျမငျခငးႏငပကသကသည စြန႔စားရ ႏငေျခမားက ၂၉ ရာခငႏႈနးက ေရြးခယခသည။ ႏငငတစခခတြင စးပြားေရးလပငနးလပကငရသညႏင ပကသကေသာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားက၂၅ရာခငႏႈနးက ေရြးခယခသည။ ဥပမာ လပငနးပးတြလပကင ဖက၊ ႏငငေရးအရထေတြ႕မႈရသမားစသည စးပြားေရးလပငနးလပကငဖကမားႏငပကသကေသာ စြန႔စား ရႏငေျခမားက ၁၂ ရာခငႏႈနးက ေရြးခယခသည။ ႐တတရကၾကညလင စးပြားေရးလပငနးလညပတမႈႏင ပကသကေသာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားသည ေျဖဆ သမား၏ အေလးထားမႈတြင အလြနျမငမားေနသညက အအားသငစရာျဖစသည။ ဥပမာအားျဖင အခြန အရာရမား သ႔မဟတ အေကာကခြနအရာရမားက လာဘေပးရန ေတာငးဆျခငးမးျဖစသည။ ယငးသ႔ ေတာငးခမႈမးသည ပစတစမးျဖငလာေလရသည။ ေပးရသည ေငြေၾကးပမာဏသည စးပြားေရးလပငနး တစခအေနျဖငဆလင နညးပါးသညဟဆဖြယရာရသညပမာဏျဖစေသာအေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၁၀၀ ေအာကသာျဖစတကေသာလညး ေတာငးခမႈမားသည ထးစလျဖစေနသည ၿခမးေျခာကမႈတစချဖစ သည။ “မငးမေပးရငမငးလပငနးထခကသြားမယ” ဆသညသေဘာျဖင အေကာကခြနလပငနးမား ေဆာငရြကျခငး သ႔မဟတလငစငေလာကထားျခငးတ႔တြငအကနအကႀကးမားသည ၾကန႔ၾကာမႈမးျဖစ ျခငး သ႔မဟတ တရားမတမႈမရေသာ အခြနေကာကချခငးပစမးကသ႔ျဖစသည။ အေမရကန၊ ယေကႏင အျခား အေနာကႏငငမား၏ ဥပေဒေရးရာအဖြ႕မားက ျမနမာႏငငကသ႔ေသာ ႏငငမားအပါအ၀င ျပညတြငး ျဖစေစ၊ ႏငတကာတြငျဖစေစ ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရးဆငရာ လာဘေပးမႈမားက ႏမနငးေနေသာေၾကာင ႏငငတကာကမၸဏမားက ေပးရနလကတြန႔ၾကသည။ “လပငနးလညပတမႈဆငရာ လာဘေပးမႈမား” က အေလးထားေျပာဆသျဖင အျခားေသာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခ မားသည အေရးမႀကးဟ မဆလေပ။ ယငးတ႔က ကမၸဏမားမညသ႔ ႐ႈျမငသနညးဆသညက အနညး ငယကြျပားသည အျမငတစခရရရန ေျဖဆသမားအား အခငးအကငးမးစေပးၿပး စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမား သည “သသာထငရားျခငးမရ” ၊ “လပ႐းလပစဥ” သ႔မဟတ “အဓကသည” က မတခကေပးရန ေမးျမနး ခသည။ ထသ႔မဟတလင “ၾကားပြစား” က ေငြေၾကးပမာဏတစခေပးရမညဆလင ယငးသ႔ေသာ အေျခ အေနမးေအာကတြင ကမၸဏကဆကလပႏငျခငးမရေတာဟဆလသလားဟ ေမးျမနးခသည။ အခငးအကငးတစခတြင “တရားသႀကးမားက ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရးဆငရာ အျငငးပြားမႈမားသည နာ မညဆးျဖငေကာၾကားလေသာ အဂတလကစားမႈတစရပျဖစေနသညဟ ဆးျဖတေသာ” အေျခအေနတစ ခက စဥးစားၾကညရန ေမးျမနးေသာအခါ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားသည “သသာထငရားျခငးမရ” ဟ မညသ အားလးနးပါးက မထငျမငၾကဘ ယငးအေျခအေနတြင “ၾကားပြစား” မားက ေပးရမညဟ ေျဖဆသ ငါးပ တစပက ထငျမငၾကသည။ သေသာျငားလညး စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားသည “လပ႐းလပစဥ” အျဖစ ၄၀
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ရာခငႏႈနးေကာကထငျမငၾကသည။ မလြမေရာငသာ ႀကရသညအခါ သတ႔သည တရားသႀကးမားက လာဘေပး ရမညဟ ေသခာေပါကဆလျခငးမဟတေပ။ ထသ႔ျပလပမညအစား ကနထ ႐ကစာခပမားတြင အထးအခကမားထညသြငးျခငးျဖင ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရးဆငရာ အျငငးပြားမႈမား က သကဆငႏငင၏ ျပငပတြင ဆးျဖတမညျဖစရာ ယငးသ႔ေသာ စြန႔စားရမႈမားက ကမၸဏမားက ကင တြယသြားဖြယရသည။ အျခားတစနညးအားျဖင အျငငးပြားမႈျဖစသညေနရာတြငပင ဆးျဖတျခငးျဖင တရား႐းသ႔ေရာကမည စြန႔စား ရႏငေျခထကတရားမတမႈမရဟယဆေသာလည ညႏႈငးေျပလညသညနညးက လကခၾကလမမည ျဖစသည။ ယငးသ႔ျဖစႏငေျခမားသည ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအတြက လး၀ဥသ အတားအဆးတစချဖစေကာငးျဖစ ဖြယမဟတေသာလညး ယငးတ႔ထညသြငးတြကခကရနလအပမည မားစြာ ေသာ အေၾကာငးတရားမားထမ တစချဖစသည။ ဒတယအခငးအကငးတြင အလားအလာရသည လပငနးပးတြလပကငမည မတဖကသည ၀နႀကးခပႏင ေဆြမး၀မးကြေတာစပသည (အလားတကစၥရပမားတြင အစးရအဖြ႕ထပတနးအရာရတစဥးဥးႏင ေဆြ မးေတာစပသညဟလညး စဥးစားရမည) ဟ စဥးစားရန ေျဖၾကားသမားအား ေမးျမနးခသည။ တ႔ျပနမႈ မား၏ အဆငမာ သသသာသာကြျပားသြားခသည။ ၂၃ ရာခငႏႈနးနးပါက စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားသည “ည လငၿပးသည” အရာဟ ထငျမငခၾကသည။ အေနာကႏငင ကမၸဏအမားစအပါအ၀င ၂၀ ရာခငႏႈနးနးပါး က စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားသည “သသာထငရားမႈမရ” ဟ ထငျမငခၾကသည။ Control Risks အျမငတြင ေကနပေလာကသညအေျဖရရနမာ မားယြငးဖြယရသည။ တစစတရာေသာ အေျခအေနမားတြင ထပတနးႏငငေရးသမားတစေယာက၏ ေဆြမးသားခငးႏင အလပလပရန တရား ၀ငျဖစမႈရေသာ စးပြားေရးအေၾကာငးရငးခေကာငးတစချဖစဖြယရသည။ အလားတပင ေမးျမနးရမည ေသာခကကေသာ ေမးခြနးမားလညးရသည။ ပးတြလပငနးမားအား ေဆြမးသားခငး၏ ထည၀ငမႈ သ ဘာ၀က အတအကဆရလင ဘာျဖစမညနညး။ သတ႔ရရမည ဆလာဘသည အတအကအားျဖင မညသ႔ျဖစမညနညး။ စညးကမးထနးသမးေရးသမားမားႏင စစမးေဖာထတေရးသားသည သတငးစာ ဆရာမားၾကညေလရသည သသယမကလးျဖငၾကညမညဆလင အရာရက အျခားတစနညးျဖင လာဘ ေပးမႈတစခအျဖစ အနညးဆးေသာ ၀နေဆာငမႈအတြက ေပးရမည အလားအလာရသလား။ အကယ၍ အစးရအဖြ႕ အေျပာငးအလျဖစလင ဘာျဖစသြားမညနညးဆသည ေမးခြနးမားရသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအတြက ႐ႈပေထြးမႈမား အဂတလကစားမႈ ျမငမားေသာ အဆငမားႏငဆကစပေနသည စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမားအား ခဥးကပမႈမားစြာ ျဖင ျပလပခသည သေဘာထားစစတမးအရ ယငးသ႔ေသာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမား ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအတြက အဆးအတားတစခအျဖစ ကမၸဏအားလးက ယဆလမမညမဟတေပ။ သ႔ေသာလညး အနညးစေလး သာျဖစေသာ ကမၸဏမားကသာ ျပနာပနညးေသာ အျခားႏငငမားတြင ယငးတ႔၏ ေငြမားက ရငးႏး ျမပႏရာ ပမလလားႏစသကေၾကာငး ဆးျဖတၾကလမမညျဖစသည။ အဆငျမငမားေသာ စးပြားေရး လပငနးဆငရာ၊ နညးပညာဆငရာႏင ေကာပရတ တာ၀န၀တရား စခနစညႊနးမားအရ လညပတမည ကမၸဏမားျဖစဖြယရေသာေၾကာင အဖကဖကတြင အဆးအ႐ႈးပမားမညျဖစသည။ Control Risks ၏ မၾကာေသးမက အေတြ႕အႀကမားတြင ႏငငတကာကမၸဏမားေမးျမနးေလရသည ေမး ခြနးမားမာ ျမနမာႏငင၏ တရားေရးအေျခအေနျဖစသလ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ ျပ၊ မျပဆးျဖတခနတြင ပမကယ ျပန႔ေသာ လပငနးလညပတမႈ ပတ၀နးကငအေျခအေနလညးပါ၀ငသည။ ယခအခနအထ အေျဖမားက လးလးလားလားေကာနပစရာမရေပ။ ယငးအခကသည ႏငငတကာရငးႏးျမပႏသမား ေမာမနးထားခ သညထက အ၀ငေႏးခသည အေၾကာငးတစခကလညးျဖစသည။
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ကမၸဏမားသည ဥပေဒပါအခကမားအတငးလပဆာငရမညက မားစြာမပပနဘ အဆငတငးရ အရာရ မား၏ အရညအေသြးက ပမအေလးထားသည။ အထးသျဖင တရားစရငေရးတြငျဖစသည။ျမနမာႏငငသည New York Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards က မၾကာ ေသးမက လကမတေရးထးခသည။ ယငးသ႔လကမတေရးထးျခငးသည ေရ႕သ႔ေျခလမးတစလမး ျဖစၿပး အနာဂတတြင ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရးဆငရာ အျငငးပြားမႈမားက အျပညျပညဆငရာ ခသမာဓသ႔ တငမညအလားအလာရသြားသညသေဘာျဖစသည။သ႔ေသာလညးျပညတြငးဥပေဒျပမႈတြင ကြနဗငးရငး၏ ျပဌာနးခကမားကျမနမာလႊတေတာကအေကာငအထညေဖာရနလေနဥးမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာတရားသႀကး မားကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရးဆငရာဥပေဒကသငေလာစြာေလကငသငၾကားေပးရမည ေရရညရနမနး ခကမာ ယခငအတငး အေရးတႀကး ကစၥတစရပအျဖစရေနမညျဖစသည။ ရငးႏးျမပႏဖြယရသမားႏင Control Risks တ႔ ေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားတြင လပငနးလပကငဖက စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမာ ဒတယအဓကအကဆး ပပနမႈအျဖစေပၚထြကလာတကသည။ အနညးဆးအားျဖင မမတ႔၏ အလားအလာ ရေသာပးတြလပငနးလပကငဖကမားသညအေမရကန အေရးယပတဆ႔သညစာရငးတြငပါမပါ သလၾက သည။ ထထကပၿပး သလၾကသညမာ ဂဏသကၡာအတြက ယငးတ႔၏ ပဂၢလေရးအဆကအသြယမားႏင နာမညဂဏသတငးမားက လကလမးမလၾကသည။ ယခစာတမးတြင ေခါငးစဥတပထားသည ေမးခြနးက ျပနသြားရလင ျမနမာႏငငသည ေျပာငးလေနသလား၊ မေျပာငးလဘေနသလားအေပၚမားစြာအျငငးပြားေနသညမဟတဘဘယေလာကျမနသလႏင ဘယက သြားေနသလဆသညက ေမးခြနးထတလျခငးျဖစသည။ အပခပမႈ စခနစညႊနးမားက ျမငတငရနႏင အဂတလကစားမႈတကဖကေရးအဆငမားကခငမာေအာငျပလပရမညက သမၼတဥးသနးစနက အသ အမတျပခၿပးျဖစသည။ ေျခလမးသစမားေလာကလမး ေနေသာ ျမနမာတြင ျပညတြငးႏင ႏငငတကာ ကမၸဏမား ႀကးထြားေအာငျမငဖ႔ဆလငအလငအျမနတးတကေရ မာ အေရးတၾကးလ အပခကတစချဖစသည။
141
ျမနမာတြင တ႐တ၏ စးပြားေရးရငးႏးျမ ပႏမႈမားက ႏငငေရးဇာတသြငးျခငး - အေၾကာငးတရားႏင သကေရာကမႈ
Politicization of China’s Economic Investment in Myanmar: Cause and Impact
Zhu Li
Executive Director and Professor, Research Institute for Indian Ocean Economics Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
[email protected] တ႐တ-ျမနမာစးပြားေရး ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ၏ လကရ အေျခအေန ပထ၀ႏငငေရး အေၾကာငးတရာမားေၾကာင တ႐တ-ျမနမာ စးပြားေရးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈသည ရညလားေသာ သမငးတစခရခသည။ တရတႏင ျမနမာၾကား ကနသြယေရး ပမာဏသည ၂၀၀၅ ခႏစတြင ေဒၚလာ ၁ ဒသမ ၂ ဘလရခရာမ ၂၀၁၂ တြင ႏစႏငငကနသြယေရး ပမာဏသည ေဒၚလာ ၆ ဒသမ ၉၆ ဘလသ႔ တးျမငလာခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈသည ၂၀၀၅ ခႏစကတညးက သသသာသာတးျမငခၿပး မၾကာ ေသးေသာ ငါးႏစအတြငး ေဒၚလာ ၁၁၀ ဘလမ ေဒၚလာ ၈ ဒသမ ၇၅ ဘလအထ တးျမငခသည။ တ႐တ၏ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈစမကနးအမားစမာ စြမးအင၊ သတတေဖာေရးတ႔ကသ႔ေသာသဘာ၀သယဇာတလပငနးမား အေပၚဥးတညသည။ ၂၀၁၁ ေမလတြင တ႐တသမၼတ ဟကငေတာငႏင ျမနမာသမၼတ ဥးသနးစနတ႔ ေပကငးတြင ေတြ႕ဆခ ၿပး ႏစႏငငၾကားပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရးတးျမငရနႀကးပမးမႈတစရပအျဖစ ခငမာအားေကာငးေသာ မဟာ ဗဟာမတဆက တညေဆာကျခငး ပးတြေၾကညာခကတစရပက ႏစဘကစလးက ထတျပနခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမာ ၂၀၁၂ ၾသဂတလအထ ေဒၚလာ ၁၄ ဒသမ ၁၄ဘလ ေရာကရ ခၿပး အျခားႏငငျခားတငးျပညမားႏငယဥလင တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငအတြက ပမာဏအႀကးမားဆး ရငးႏးျမပႏသျဖစလာခသည။
ျမနမာစပြားေရးကႏငငေရးဇာတသြငးျခငး-တ႐တႏငပကသကေသာ ျဖစ႐းျဖစစဥ အေၾကာငးႏစရပ ျမစဆဆညေရအားလပစစ စမကနး ျမစဆဆညေရအားလပစစ စမကနးသညပြငလငးျမငသာမႈမရျခငး၊ ျပညတြငးေစးကြကသ႔ လပစစေရာငးခမႈ နညးပါးျခငး၊ ေဒသခေနထငသမားက အဓမၼေရႊ႕ေျပာငးေနရာချခငး၊ တ႐တလပသားမား က အသးမားျခငး၊ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ ဆးရြားလေသာ သကေရာကမႈမား၊ ေဒသခ ယဥေကးမႈ အေမြအႏစမားက ေလးစားမႈမရျခငး စသည အနညးဆးအေၾကာငးျပခကေျခာကခအတြက အျငငးပြားစရာျဖစခသည။
ျမနမာတြင ဒမကရကတစျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ အသြငကေျပာငးျခငးႏင ျမနမာ ေရအားလပစစစမကနးတြင
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တ႐တလပငနးမား၏ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအေပၚ အေနာကႏငငမားကထားရေသာ အာဃာတမားေၾကာင ဆည ေဆာကေရး ရပတန႔သြားရျခငးျဖစသညဟ ေလလာသးသပသအခ႕က ေထာကျပၾကသည။
ျမစဆဆညေဆာကလပေရး ႐တတရကရပတန႔သြားျခငးေၾကာင ျမနမာတြင တ႐တ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ၏ ႏငင ေရးဆငရာ စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမား အထငးသားေပၚလြငခသည။ ထအခနမစကာ “ျမနမာတြင တ႐တ ရငးႏး ျမပႏမႈ” သည အခကခဆးကာလတစချဖစလာခၿပး အျခားစမကနးအခ႕လညး အျငငးပြားဖြယရာထတြင တစ၀လညလညျဖစကာ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအသစမားလညး ထပမမရေတာေပ။
လကပေတာငးေတာင ေၾကးနသတတြငးစမကနး လကပေတာငးေတာင ေၾကးနသတတြငးစမကနးေၾကာင ျဖစေပၚလာသည သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငညစညမး မႈႏင တရားမ တမႈမရေသာ နစနာေၾကးက မေကနပသည ေဒသခမားဆႏၵျပမႈႀကးတစရပ ၂၀၁၂ ႏ၀ငဘာ တြငျဖစခၿပး ဆႏၵျပသမားက သတတြငးအနးရ ျမနမာ-ဝမေပါင ေကာပါးလမတက ၏ စခနးက သမးပကချခငး ေၾကာင စမကနးလပငနးမား ရပတန႔ခရသည။
ဒဇငဘာ ၁ ရကေန႔တြင ျမနမာအစးရ ကလကပေတာငးေတာင စစမးစစေဆးေရး ေကာမရငက ဖြ႕စညးခ သည။ ၂၀၁၃ မတ လ ၁၂ ရကေန႔တြင ထတျပနသည ေနာကဆးအစရငခစာတြင စမကနးက ဆကလကအေကာငအထည ေဖာသငေသာလညး လအပေသာတးတကမႈတငးတာျခငးမားျပလပရမညဟ ေကာမရငက အႀကျပထား သည။ ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈျပနာက အဆပါအစရငခစာတြက အႀကမမားစြာ ထညသြငးထားသည။ အစရင ခစာအရ ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈနညးပါးသျဖင စမကနးႏငပကသကၿပး ေဒသခ ျပညသမား နညးနညးသာသသျဖင နားလညမႈလြမားေစခသညဟ ဆသည။
ျမနမာစးပြားေရးက ႏငငေရးဇာတသြငးျခငးအေၾကာငး
(၁) ျပညတြငး၀ေရာဓမးစက ေျဖရငးရန ပထမဥးဆးအေနျဖင ျမနမာအစးရသည ျပညတြငးႏငငေရးအကးစးပြားမားက ခနညရနႏင အစးရပရပက ျမငတငရန လအပသည။ အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလအတြငး ဥးသနးစနအစးရအတြက အေရးႀကးဆးအရာ မာအစးရ၏ ပရပသစက ပေဖာရနႏင အစးရသစအေပၚ ျပညသ႔မား၏ သေဘာထားက ေျပာငးရနျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင သာမနျပညသမား၏ အသသည (သ႔မဟတ ယငးအသဟဆရမည) ဥးသနးစနအစးရ၏ အာ႐စကစရာျဖစလာၿပး ယငးအခြငအေရးက အမအရဆပကငၿပး ျပညသ႔ယၾကညမႈရရမညဟ ေမာလငရ သည။ တ႐တသည ျမနမာတြင ပမာဏအႀကးမားဆးရငးႏးျမပႏသျဖစေသာေၾကာင ႀကးမားေသာ ေဆာက လပေရးစမကနးမားႀကး အာ႐စကမႈႀကးႀကးမားမားရရမညျဖစသည။
ဒတယအခကအေနျဖင အမးသားျပနလညစညးလးညညြတေရးက အရနျမငရနႏင လနညးစတငးရငး သားလမးစေဒသမားတြင အကးစးပြားမား ပဋပကၡကေလာခရမည။
တတယအခကအေနျဖင အကးစးပြားအသစမားႏင အေဟာငးမားၾကား ပဋပကၡမားက ၾကား၀ငရမည။ ျမနမာတြင တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈစမကနးမားသည အျမတကခကခေနရသည နက႐ႈငးေသာ အေၾကာငးမာ အကးစးပြား အသစမားႏင အေဟာငးမားၾကား ပဋပကၡျဖစသည။
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(၂) အျခားႏငငမားႏင ျမနမာဆကဆေရးက ခနညရန
ပထမဆးအေနျဖင တ႐တလႊမးမးမႈ အားေလာသြားရနလအပသည။ ျမနမာတြင တ႐တ၏ ၾသဇာလြမးမးမႈ သညႀကးမားေနသျဖင ျမနမာအစးရႏင ႏငငျခားပါ၀ါမား စးရမပပနမႈက နကနက႐ႈငး႐ႈငးျဖစေပၚေစခ သည။ တ႐တ၏ မဟာဗေျမာကရညရြယမႈတြင စြမးအငလၿခေရးက ခငမာအားေကာငးေစရနႏင “ႏငင တစႏငင၊ သမဒၵရာႏစခ” ဆေသာအခကက တကယျဖစလာေစရန အႏၵယသမဒၵရာသ႔ လမးေၾကာငးသစ တရပပြင ရနဆသည မကႏာစာႏစရပရသညက ေယဘယအားျဖင ယၾကညၾကသည။
ဒတယအခကမာ ႏငငတကာဆကဆေရးႏင အကးစးပြားမားက ခနညရနျဖစသည။ ႏငငတကာဆကဆ ေရးခနညျခငး ျဖစစဥတြင အေမရကနႏင ဂပနအပါအဝင ႏငငမားစြာတ႔က တ႐တႏငငမ ဖအားမားရလာ ၿပက တျဖညးျဖညးသရလာသျဖင ျမနမာႏင သတမနေရးရာ အျပနအလနဆကဆမႈမား စတငတးျမငခၾက သည။ အထးသျဖင အေမရကနျပညေထာငစက “အာရ-ပစဖတသ႔ ျပနလာျခငး” မဟာဗက အေကာင အထညေဖာၿပးေနာက ျမနမာသည တ႐တႏင အေမရကနျပညေထာငစၾကား အကးစးပြားကစားပြ၏ အခကအျခာေနရာသစတစခ ျဖစလာခသည။ ျမနမာ၏ သတမနေရးရာခနညေရးမဟာဗဟာသည မဟာ ပါ၀ါႀကးမားၾကား ၿပငဆငမႈက ႏႈးဆြရနႏင မမကယပငအကးစးပြားက အမားဆးခ႕ထြငရန ရညရြယသည။ အေနာကႏငငမားက ျမနမာအေပၚခမတထားသည စးပြားေရး အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားက တျဖညးျဖညး ပယ ဖကခသည။
(၃) တ႐တလပငနးမား၏ ျပနာမား
တ႐တ၏ ႏငငရပျခား ရငးႏးျမပႏမ ပစမားက ျပနလညဆနးစစရန လအပသည။ တ႐တ၏ ႏငငရပျခား ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈစမကနး အမားစမာ အစးရမားႏင ဆကဆလပကငရေလရသည ႏငငပငလပငနးမားက အေကာငအထညေဖာျခငးျဖစသည။ အစးရမားႏင ဆကဆေရးေကာငးတစခ တညေဆာကရနသာ ယငး တ႔က ႀကးပမးေနၿပး ျပညသမား၏ လမႈဘ၀က လစလ႐ႈချခငးသည စမကနးမား မရငးမလငးအေန အထားသ႔ေရာကရေစၿပး အကးအျမတမားခြေ၀ရာတြင မမမတျဖစေစခသည။
မားစြာေသာ တ႐တ၏ ႏငငပငလပငနးမားသည ေကာပရတလမႈတာ၀န၀တရားမား ပကကြကၾကသည။
ျမနမာတြင တ႐တစးပြားေရး ရငးႏးျမ ပႏအား ႏငငေရးဇာတသြငးလမႈအေပၚ သကေရာကမႈမား
တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးက ႏစႏငငဆကဆေရးမ ႏငငစဆကဆေရးသ႔ အသြငေျပာငးရန
ျမနမာတြင ဒမကေရစအသြငးကးေျပာငးေရးျဖစစဥမားတးတကမႈေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငျခားဆကဆေရး၏ အေရးႀကးေသာ အစတအပငးျဖစသည တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရး ေျပာငးလခေသာလညး အလးစ ေျပာငး လခသညေတာ မဟတေပ။ ျမနမာအစးရလအပသညမာ တ႐တႏင ႏစႏငငၾကားဆကဆေရးသာမကဘ တ႐တအပါအ၀င ႏငငစႏငငတကာဆကဆေရးျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးသည ၀င ႐းတစခတညးရခသည ယခငအေျခအေနသ႔ျပနေရာကရန မျဖစႏငေတာေခ။ သ႔ေသာလညး တ႐တသည ျမနမာ၏ အေရးအပါဆးအမနးခငးႏငငတစချဖစၿပး ျမနမာ၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအေပၚ တ႐တက ေကာငးေသာ အကးသကေရာကမႈမား ေပးမညျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင လကရ ဆကဆေရးေကာငးေပၚအေျခခၿပး ေဒသ တြငး ေကာငးစားေရးကပးတြတးျမငရနႏင မမတ႔၏ စတပငးဆငရာက ခနညရန ႏစဘကစလး လအပမည ျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာအစးရ၏ အသြငကးေျပာငးေရး နာကငမႈ- ဒမကေရစအသြငကးေျပာငးေရးအတြက ေပးဆပရသည တနဖး
ျမနမာ ဒမကေရစအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈ ျဖစစဥတြင အစးရသညလညး ျပငးထနလေသာ စးပြားေရးစနေခၚမႈ မားျဖင ရငဆငခရသည။ ႏငငျခားလပငနးမားက ျမနမာတြင ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈႏငပကသကၿပး သတႏငလပ ေဆာငေနၾကသျဖင ျမနမာစးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအတြက အဆးအတားျဖစခရသည။ ႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ က ဥးစားေပးထားရသည အေျခအေနေအာကက ျမနမာစးပြားေရး ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈက ႀကးႀကးမားမားသကေရာကမႈ ရမညျဖစသည။
အျငငးပြားမႈမားက ကငတြယေျဖရငးျခငးနညးလမးမား အသြငေျပာငးျခငး
ကၽြနေတာတ႔ ေတြ႕ျမငခရသညအတငး ျမစဆဆညအျဖစအပကမ လကပေတာငးေတာင ေၾကးနသတတြငး စမကနး ကစၥ အထ ႐ႈပေထြးလသည ႏငငတကာအေရးကစၥမားက ကငတြယရာတြင ဥးသနးစနအစးရ၏ နညးလမးသည ပမရငကကလာခသည။
တ႐တ၏ ႏငငရပျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈပစက ေရႊ႕ျခငးႏင ျပညသမား၏ အသကေမြး၀မးေၾကာငးအေပၚ စမကနး က ဥးတညျခငး
ေကာပေရးရငးသည အျခားတစဖကအေပၚ တစဘကသတအကးစးပြားခမတျခငးထြက အကးစးပြား ထနး ညျခငးက ျပလပရသည။ တ႐တႏင ျမနမာ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈသည ထသ႔ပငျပလပရမည။
နဂး
ျမနမာတြင တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈက ႏငငေရးဇာတသြငးျခငးသည ျမနမာႏငငေရး အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈ၏ မလြ မေရာငသာေသာ ရလဒျဖစသည။ ပထမဆးအခကမာ တ႐တသည ျမနမာ၏ အဓက ရငးႏးျမပႏသျဖစ သည။ ဒတယအခကမာ မားစြာေသာ တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈစမကနးမားသည စစအစးရအပခပသညကာလ အတြငး ေရာကလာခၾကသညအတြက ျမနမာ ဒမကေရစအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈျဖစစဥတြင အထမခေသာ ႏငင ေရးျပနာတစရပျဖစလာခသည။ တတယအခကမာ ျမနမာသည ႏငငတကာအဆငအတနးက ျမငတင ရငး ႏငငတကာဆကဆေရးႏင အကးစးပြားမားက ျပနလညခနညရနလအပသည။ ျမနမာ ျပညတြငး ဒမ ကေရစအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈ၊ အမးသား ျပညလညစညးလးညညြတေရး၊ ျပငပဆကဆေရးႏင အျခားေသာ ျပနာမားအပါအ၀င ႏငငေရးဇာတသြငးလမႈသည တ႐တ-ျမနမာ စးပြားေရး ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈက ႀကး ႀကးမားမား သကေရာကမႈရလမမညျဖစသည။ ထအခနတြင အတငးအတာတစခအထ လစပါေသာ ကစား ပြတြင အခကအျခာေနရာတစချဖစသြားလမမညျဖစသည။
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၂၀၁၁ခႏစမစတငၿပးျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႔ က႑-တးတကမႈႏင စနေခၚမႈမား
Myanmar’s Oil and Gas Sector Since 2011: Progress and Challenges
Zhu Xianghui Center for Myanmar Studies, Yunnan University
[email protected] ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစတြင အစးရသစကမးသစၥာကနဆခၿပးကတညးက ဆငးရမြေတမႈပေပာကေရးႏင ျပညသမား၏ ဘ၀တးတက ေရးက ဂါထာရြကသလ တတြတတြတရြကဆၿပး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ ေရ႕ဆကရန တြနးခၾကသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕က႑သည မဟာဗဟာေျမာက ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၏အပငးသစတစခႏင ရငဆငလကရသည။ တငးျပညသည ျပညတြငးရငး ႏးျမပႏမႈက ခနညႇရန၊ ျပညတြငးစြမးအငလၿခမႈရေစရန၊ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနးတြင စမးသပရာေဖြျခငး၊ တးေဖာျခငး၊ ထတလပျခငးႏင အျခားနယပယသ႔ ပမနညးလမးတကရေသာ ရငးျမစခြေ၀မႈမားျပလပရန မးစေသာ နညးပညာမားႏင စးပြားေရးနညးလမးမားစြာက အသးျပလကရသည။ အမားႏငမတဘ တစခတညးေသာ ပထ၀၀ငဆငရာ တညေနရာႏင ေရန ႏင ဓာတေငြ႔ရငးျမစမား ၾကြယ၀မႈေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငသည ေဒသဆငရာ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕နယပယတြင အေရးႀကးေသာ ေနရာတစခ အျဖစတညရေနသညဟ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕က႑ အနးကပေလလာမႈတစရပက ေဖာထတသရခသည။ ထအခနတြင အားနညးေသာ အေျခခအေဆာကအအ နညးပညာႏင အရငးအႏးမရျခငးတ႔ကလညး ၎၏အနာဂတဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ အတြက ႀကးစြာေသာ စနေခၚမႈမားကလညး ေစာငကဥးလာခသည။ ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနးအား အၾကမးဖဥးသးသပခက ျမနမာႏငငသည အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြင အေရးပါေသာ ေရနတငပ႔သည ႏငငတစႏငငျဖစေလရခသည။ ဒတယကမၻာစစၿပး ေနာက၎၏ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနးကဆငးခသညတင ၁၉၈၈ တြငတခါးဖြငခခနကတညးက ျမနမာႏငင၏ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနးထတလပမႈမာ တျဖညးျဖညးျပနလညေကာငးမြနလာခၿပး ယခငေနရာသ႔ ျပနလညေရာကရလာခသည။ BT ကနးဂဏနးမားအရ တငးျပညတြင အရနသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ကဗေပ ၇ ဒသမ ၈ ထရလရၿပး ကမၻာစစ ေပါငးအရနဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏ၏ ၀ ဒသမ ၁ရာခငႏႈနးရသညဟ သရသည။ သ႔ေသာEIA (US)က ထတျပနသည ကနးဂဏနးမားအရ မတးေဖာရေသးသည ျမနမာေရနႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတ ေငြ႕သည ကဗေပ ၁၀ ထရလရသညဟ သရသည။ ျမနမာ စြမးအင၀နႀကးဌာန(MOE)ကမတငး ျပညတြင မတးေဖာရေသးသည ေရနစညေပါငး ၀ ဒသမ ၅၈ ဘလႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ကဗေပ ၂၂ ဒသမ ၅ ထရလ ပငဆငထားသညဟဆသည။ တစကမၻာလးအတငးအတာရဆလင ျမနမာႏငငသည အထးတလညထညသြငးတြကခကရမည အရနေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏ ပငဆငျခငးမဟတေပ။ အရနဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏ ပငဆငမႈအဆငသည (၄၀)တြငရၿပး အရနေရနပငဆငမႈအဆငသည (၇၇) တြငရေနသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ေဒသတြငးအတငးအတာရမ ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏသည အေတာမားျပားသညဟ ဆႏငသည။ လကရအခနတြငျမနမာႏငငသည အာရပစဖတေဒသတြင ပကလငးျဖင ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔မႈပမာဏအမားဆးႏငငျဖစ သည။ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပငဆငမႈပမာဏ စတတေျမာကအမားဆးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ထတလပျခငးနယ ပယတြင ႏစပငးခြျခားႏငသည။ ကနးတြငးထတလပျခငးနယပယႏင ကမးလြနထတလပျခငးနယပယဟ၍ျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငင သညကနးတြငးေရနထတလပမႈမာ တစေန႔လငပမးမ စညေပါငး(၇၅၀၀)ရၿပး ဓာတေငြ႕ကဗေပ (၆၅)သနးထတလပသည။
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လကရအခနတြင ျမနမာႏငငသည အာရပစဖတေဒသတြင ပကလငးျဖင ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔မႈပမာဏအမားဆးႏငငျဖစ သည။ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပငဆငမႈပမာဏ စတတေျမာကအမားဆးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ထတလပျခငးနယ ပယတြင ႏစပငးခြျခားႏငသည။ ကနးတြငးထတလပျခငးနယပယႏင ကမးလြနထတလပျခငးနယပယဟ၍ျဖစသည။ ျမနမာကနးတြငး ေရနအရနပမာဏမာ စညေပါငး ၀ ဒသမ ၅ဘလယႏင အရနသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏကဗေပ ၉၇၀ ဘလယရသည။ ျမနမာတြငကနးတြငး ေရနဓာတေငြ႕ တးေဖာသညေနရာ ၁၄ခရသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ကမးလြနအရနေရနပမာဏ စညေပါငး ၈ ဒသမ ၁ဘလယႏင ကမးလြန အရနသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏ ကဗေပ ၁၀ ထရလရသည။ ယငးတ႔က ျမနမာအာဏာ ပငမားက နယေျမသးခႏင လပကြက ေပါငး (၂၅)ခပငးျခားထားသည။ ဇန(၃)ခမာ ရခငကမးလြနနယေျမ၊ မတမကမးလြနနယေျမႏင တနသၤာရ ကမးလြနနယေျမ တ႔ျဖစၾကသည။ စမးသပရာေဖြျခငးႏင တးေဖာျခငး ယေန႔အခနထ စမးသပရာေဖြျခငးႏင တးေဖာျခငးမားက ျမနမာႏငငအလယပငးေရနေျမမားျဖစသည ျပညေရနေျမႏင ဧရာ၀တ ျမစ၀ကၽြနးေပၚေရနမားတြင ေဆာငရြကလကရသည။ အျခားေရနေျမ ၁၁ခတြင အနညးငယ(သ႔)လး၀ပင မတး ေဖာ သညအေျခအေနတြင ရေနသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ အျခားေနရာမားစြာတြင ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕သကအသစမား ရာေဖြေတြ႕ ရႏငသည အလားအလာမားရသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငသည ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ထးေဖာမႈအတြက အလားအလာ ႀကးႀကးမား မားရေနသည။ ကနးတြင ေရနႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ႏင ႏႈငးယဥလင ျမနမာသည ကမးလြနေရနႏင သဘာ၀ ဓာတေငြ႕ထတယေရးတြင ပမႀကးမားေသာ အလားအလာတစရပရသည။ ေလာေလာဆယျမနမာ ကမးလြနေရနလပကြက မားမ ေန႔စဥ ထတလပမႈမာ ေရန႐ငးစညေပါငး ၁၂၀၀၀ႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ကဗေပ ၁ ဒသမ ၀၅ ဘလယရသည။ ျမနမာ ကမး႐းတနးေဒသမားတြင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕အသစရာေဖြေတြ႕ရမႈႏႈငအတ ကမးလြနသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕သကမာလညး ႀကးမားမားရေနသည။ လပကြကM-5 ရရတနာေရနတြငးႏင ဓာတေငြ႕တးေဖာျခငးႏင လပကြက M-12 ႏင M-13 တ႔ရ ရတခြနေရနတြငးတ႔သည ျမနမာ ကမးလြနေရနလပကြကမားတြင ဓာတေငြ႕ အမားဆးထတယရရသည လပကြကမား ျဖစၾကသည။ လပကြက A-1 ႏင လပကြက M-9 တ႔တြင ရာေဖြေတြ႕ရမႈမားေၾကာင စမးသပေတြ႕ရထားသညျမနမာ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏသည အာရပစဖတေဒသတြင ၂ ဒသမ ၆ ရာခငႏႈနးမ ၄ ဒသမ ၄ ရာခငႏႈနးထတးလာခၿပး ေဒသတြငး၌ သတမေျမာကအႀကးဆးျဖစလာခသည။ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပ႔ေဆာငျခငး ျမနမာႏငငသည အမားအားျဖင အခငး ၆ လကမမ ၂၀ လကမထရေသာ ကနးတြငး သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႔ပကလငး မင၂၀၀၀ ေကာက တညေဆာကခၿပးျဖစသည။ သန႔စငသည သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕(CNG)က လပငနးမားႏင ေန႔စဥဘ၀တ႔တြင ေယဘယ အားျဖင အသးျပၾကသည။ ၁၉၈၆မ ၂၀၀၄ထ CNG ဓာတေငြ႕ျဖညတငးသညေနရာငါးခတညေဆာကခၿပး (၂)ခမာ ရနကန တြငရကာ (၂)ခမာေရနေခာငးတြငရၿပး တစခမာ ေခာကတြငရသည။ ထ႔ျပင ျမနမာႏငငသည ေလာငစာဆအသးျပသည ဘတစ ကား(၅၈၇)စငးက သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕သးယာဥမားအျဖစေျပာငးလခသည။ ျမနမာ CNG သည ၂၀၀၄ ခႏစ ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစတြင အလငအျမနဖြ႕ၿဖးလာခသည။ ၂၀၁၁ခႏစ ဇြနလတြင ျမနမာႏငင၌ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕သး ဘတစကားေပါငး ၂၇၄၇၂စး ရခၿပးCNG ဓာတေငြ႕အေရာငးဆငေပါငး (၄၅) ဆငရခကာ ရနကနတြငဆင(၄၀)၊ မႏေလးတြင
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(၂)ဆင၊ ေရနေခာငးတြင (၂)ဆင၊ ေခာကတြင (၁)ဆငရသည။ ျမနမာသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ေစးကြက၏ ပနးတငမာ ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးသစေၾကာင CNG အေရာငး ဆငမား ပမာဏတစခထတညေဆာကသြားရနျဖစသည။ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔ျခငး ျမနမာႏငငသည ၁၉၈၈ ခႏစတြင ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔သညႏငငျဖစလာခသည။ (၂)ႏစၾကာၿပးေနာက ၂၀၀၀ျပညႏစတြင အာရ ပစဖတေဒသမ ပကလငးျဖင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕အမားဆးတငပ႔ခသည။ ေလာေလာဆယတြင ေဒသတြငး၌ ဓာတေငြ႕ တငပ႔မႈတြင စတတေျမာကအမားဆးျဖစသည။ ၿဗတသေရနအဖြ႕အစညးသည အဆအရ ျမနမာႏငငသည ၂၀၀၆တြင ပကလငး ျဖင ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔မႈ ၁၁ႏငငေျမာက အႀကးဆးႏငငျဖစလာခသည။ ေလာေလာဆယတြင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕သည ျမနမာႏငင၏ အဓက ႏငငျခားပ႔ကနမားထမ တစချဖစသည။ ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔မႈ တးျမႇငလာမႈေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငသည ေရနႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ရာေဖြမႈနယပယတြင အဆငအတနး ျမငလာ ေစခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင လတစဥးခငးအလက သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြအသးျပမႈ တးပြားလာစဥတြင သဘာ၀ ဓာတေငြ႕က ျပညတြငးစားသးမႈအတြက ဥးစားေပးအျဖစ ထားရလာသည။ စြမးအင၀နႀကးဌာန၏အဆအရ ၂၀၀၇-၂၀၁၂ ဘ႑ာေရးႏစမား တြငျမနမာႏငငသည အေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၁၆ ဘလယရရခသည။ ၂၀၁၁-၂၀၁၂ ဘ႑ာေရးႏစတြင ဓာတေငြ႕တငပ႔မႈ စစေပါငး သညအေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၃.၅ ဘလယျဖင စခနတငရရခသညဟ ခန႔မနးၾကသည။ အပခပမႈႏင ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈ ဥးသနးစနအစးရတကလာၿပးကတညးက မမတ႔၏ စြမးအငက႑က ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမား ျပလပရန ရညရြယထားသညက ျမနမာႏငငအစးရက ေဖာထတေျပာဆခၿပး သဘာ၀သယဇာတထတယေရးတြင ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈမား ရေစရမညဟ ဆခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (EITI)က အေကာငအထညေဖာရနျပငဆငလကရၿပး ယငး ကအေကာငအထညေဖာျခငးျဖင ၎၏ ပါ၀ငပတသကေနသအမားအျပားရသည အပစက ထနးသမးေရးအတြက လမး ေၾကာငးတစခရရလမမညျဖစသည။ ဒဇငဘာ ၁၄ ရကေန႔က သမၼတဥးသနးစနက သမၼတ႐း၀နႀကး ဥးစးသနးအား ျမနမာႏငငတြင EITI အေကာငအထညေဖာေရးက ဥးေဆာငရနခန႔အပခၿပး EITI ဥးေဆာငအာဏာပငအဖြ႕က ထေထာငခ သည။ ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစ ေမလ(၂၀)ရကေန႔တြင စြမးအင၀နႀကး ဥးသနးေဌးႏင ႏငငတကာ စြမးအငေရးရာအထးသတမနႏင ညႇ ႏႈငးေဆာငရြကေရးမး Carlos Pascual က စြမးအငက႑တြင ေကာငးမြနေသာ အပခပမႈႏင ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈ ေဖာေဆာငရနပးတြေၾကညာခကတစရပထတျပနခသည။ Energy Governance and Capacity Initiative (EGCI)မတစ ဆငေရရညက႑ စမခန႔ခြမႈ ဘ႑ာေရးတာ၀နခမႈႏင လၿခမႈတ႔ ေဖာေဆာငရန နညးပညာပငးဆငရာ စြမးရညတညေဆာက ေရးေထာကပရနအတြက အေမရကနက ရညရြယထားသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစဇြနလေျခာကရကေန႔တြင ေနျပညေတာ၌ကငးပခ သည ၂၂ႀကမေျမာက အေရ႕အာရဆငရာကမၻာ႔ စးပြားေရးဖရမက စြမးအင ဗသကာသစဟေသာေခါငးစဥျဖင အစရငခစာ တစေစာငထတျပနခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည ျမနမာ ေရနႏငသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနး စမကနးႏင မဟာဗဟာသစက ရာ ေဖြေနသညဟ ထတျပနခသည။ ေရနဓာတေငြ႕က႑တြင ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ
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၁၉၈၉ ခႏစတြင စတငတခါးဖြငခၿပးေနာက အျခားေသာဥးစားေပးမ၀ါဒမားျပလပၿပးကတညးက ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕လပ ငနးတြင ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ တးတကလာခသည။ အထးသျဖင ၂၀၀၀ ျပညႏစေနာကပငးတြင ျမနမာ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ တးေဖာေရးတြင ႏငငျခားကမၸဏမား၏ ပါ၀ငပတသကမႈမာ သသသာသာတးျမႇငလာခသည။ ႏငငျခားကမၸဏမားပါ၀ငပတ သကသည စမကနးမားမာ အမားအားျဖင ကမး႐းတနးေဒသမားတြင လပကငၾကသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ရငးႏးျမပႏသည ႏငငမားသည ထငးႏငင၊ စငကာပ၊ မေလးရား၊ အငဒနးရားႏင ဗယကနမတ႔ကသ႔ အာဆယႏငငမားပါ၀ငသလ တ႐တ၊ အႏၵယ၊ ေတာငကရးယား၊ ဂပန၊ ၾသစေၾတးလ၊ ၿဗတန၊ ကေနဒါ ႏင ႐ရား အစရသျဖင အာဆယအဖြ႕၀ငမဟတေသာ ႏငငမားလညးပါ၀ငသည။ ထ႔ျပငထငးႏငငသည ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနးတြင ျမနမာႏငင၏အႀကးမားဆး ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈရငးျမစ တစချဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၂ခႏစကစၿပး PTTEP သည ျမနမာႏငငတြင ၎၏စကသးဆအေရာငးဆငမားႏင လကလကြနရကမား က တးခ႕ရနႀကးမားသညအစအစဥတစရပ ေရးဆြခသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးႏင တခါးဖြငလာျခငးတ႔ႏငအတ အေနာကကမၻာ၏ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမား ႐ပသမးလာချခငးတ႔ေၾကာင Total ၊ Chevron၊ ႏင Shell တ႔ကသ႔ေသာ ေရနကမၸဏႀကးမားသညလညး ျမနမာေရနႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနး ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတြငပါ၀ငရန ရညရြယလာၾကသည။ ျမနမာ-ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးက ေမလ(၂၀၁၃)ခႏစတြင လညပတရန အခနဇယားဆြထားၿပး ေရနစမးပကလငးက ၂၀၁၃ စက တငဘာလတြင လညပတမညျဖစသည။ ေယဘယအားျဖငႏငငျခားကမၸဏမားႏင MOGE တ႔ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကရာတြင PSC ခညးကပနညးျဖင လပကငၾကသည။ ႏငငျခားေရနကမၸဏမားျဖင စးပြာေရးလပငနးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈအတြက လပကြကေပါငး ၁၀၁ ကြကတြင အတတကြလပ ကငၾကၿပး ၅၃ ကြကမာ ကနးတြငးျဖစကာ ၄၈ ကြကမာ ကမးလြနျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၂ခႏစဇနန၀ါရလအထ ကနးတြငးလပကြက ၁၀ခတြင လပကငႏငသည ႏငငေရနကမၸဏ ၈ ခရၿပး ကမးလြနလပကြက ၂၇ခတြငလပကငေနသည ႏငငျခားကမၸဏ ၁၂ခ ရသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစ၊ဇနန၀ါရလတြင အႏၵယက PSC – 1 လပကြကက တငဒါေအာငခသည။ MOGE ကရယယာပငဆငမႈ၏ ၇၇ ဒသမ၅ ရာခငႏႈနးျဖင ေမလ ၂၈ ရကေန႔တြင PSC ကနထ႐ကစာခပလကမတေရးထးခသည။ ၂၀၁၃ခႏစ ဧၿပလ ၁၀ ရကေန႔တြင ျမနမာအစးရက ကမးလြနလပကြက ၃၀ အတြက တငဒါေခၚယခၿပး ၂၀၁၃ ေမလတြငသတမတ အရညအခငးျပညမ သညႏငငတကာ ကမၸဏ ၅၉ ခတ႔က ကနးတြငးေရနလပကြကမားတြင တငဒါစာရငးသြငးခၾကသည။ ႏငငျခားကမၸဏမား ၾကားၿပငဆငမႈသည ျမနမာႏငငအား တစစတရာေသာ စးပြားေရးအကးအျမတမား ေပးကာ စြမးအငရရရနအတြက ႀကးပမးေနၾကသည တ႐တ၊ အႏၵယႏင အာဆယႏငငမားႏင လပကငေနၾကသည ျမနမာႏငငအတြက အားသာခကမားေဆာငကဥး လာခသည။ အားသာခကမားႏင စနေခၚမႈမား ၿပးခသည ဆယစႏစႏစခအတြငးေရနႏငသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕က႑သည ႀကးႀကးမားမားတးတကခသည။ အရညအေသြးမျပည မေသာ ဆပကမးမားႏင ယယြငးေနသည ကနတငကနခစနစႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈနမသည သယယပ႔ေဆာငေရးတ႔ေၾကာင တး တကေရးအတြက အလားအလာေကာငးမား ပကစးခရသည။ အသစစမးသပရာေဖြေသာလပကြကမားရႀကးမားကယျပန႔ေသာ အလားအလာမား ျမနမာႏငင၏ရာေဖြေတြ႕ရထားေသာ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕သကသည လြနခသည ဆယစႏစတြင ႏစဆျမငတကခသည။ လပကြက A-1 ႏင လပကြက M-9 တ႔ေဖာထတႏငခမႈေၾကာင အာရပစဖတေဒသတြင ျမနမာႏငင၏ရာေဖြေတြ႕ရၿပး ေသာ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ ပမာဏ ရယယာမာ ၁ ဒသမ
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၆ ရာခငႏႈနးမ ၄.၁၄ ရာခငႏႈနးတးလာခၿပး ေဒသတြငး၌ သတမေျမာကအႀကးဆျဖစလာခ သည။ လပကြက A-1 သည စစေတြဆပကမးအနး၊ ရခင ကမး႐းတမးေဒသတြငတညရသည။ ေလာေလာဆယတြင လပကြက A-1 တြငရသည သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏက အတအကတြကခကႏငျခငးမရေသးေပ။ ယခငနညးေဟာငးအတငး တြကခကမႈအရ ေရႊဓာတ ေငြ႕လပငနးတြငကဗေပ ၄ ဒသမ ၆ ထရလႏင ေရႊျဖ ဓာတေငြ႕တြင ကဗေပ ၅ ထရလခန႔ႏငအတသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ကဗေပေပါငး ၁၀ထရလခန႔ရသညဟ ခန႔မနးၾကသည။ လပကြက A-1 အျပင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ကဗေပေပါငး ၂ ထရလခန႔ရမညဟ ခန႔မနး ထားသည။ ျမသဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနး(လပကြက A-3)ရခငကမး႐းတမးေဒသတြင ေတြ႕ရခသည။ လပကြက M-9 တြငရ သည သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပမာဏသည ကဗေပ ၈ ထရလရမညဟ ခန႔မနးထားၾကသည။ အဆပါေတြ႕ရမႈမားေၾကာင ႏငငတကာစြမးအငေစးကြကတြင ျမနမာႏငင၏အေနအထား မာ ထပမတးျမငလာခသည။ ျပညတြငးလအပခကအတြက ေရနမလေလာကမႈ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ႏငယဥလင ျမနမာႏငငသည ေရနစမးသကမားစြာ ၾကြယ၀ျခငးမရေပ။ ျမနမာေရနႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ထတ လပျခငးသည ၁၉၈၈ ခႏစကတညးက တးတကလာခသည။ ေရနစမးထတလပမႈမာ ၁၉၈၈ခႏစတြင စညေပါငး ၄ ဒသမ ၈၃ သနးရခရာမာ ၂၀၀၇ခႏစ ၇ ဒသမ ၆၂ သနးသ႔တးတကခသည။ တးတကမႈႏႈနးမာ ၆၇ ရာခငႏႈနးရသည။ တစခနတညးမာ ပငျမနမာေရန လအပခကမာလညး တးပြားလကရသည။ ဓာတဆ၊ ဒဇယႏင အျခားေလာငစာဆလအပခကမာ ဆယစႏစႏစခနးပါးအတြငး ေလးဆျမငတကခရသည။ ဒဇယသးဆြမႈပမာဏ၏ ထက၀ကေကာခန႔က ႏငငျခားမတငသြငး ခရၿပး ႏငငတကာေစးကြကႏင ျပညတြငးေစးကြကတြင ေစးႏႈနးကြာျခားခကေၾကာင အစးရက စကထတကခမႈမား ျပလပခရသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငသည မမႏငငအတြက လေလာကေသာ ေရနစမးက ထတလပေပးႏငျခငးမရေသးဘ ေရနထြကကနပစၥညးတငသြငးရမႈမာလညး တးခသည။ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ေစးကြကတြင မထေရာကမႈမား ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ေစးကြကတြင အပငးလကခြျခားျခငးႏင လက၀ါးႀကးအပမႈမားဆးဆးရြားရြားျဖစေနသညအကး ရလဒအားျဖင ေစးကြကယႏယားလညပတမႈမမနျခငး၊ စးပြားေရးလပငနးမထေရာကမႈႏင ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ေစးကြက ဖြ႕ၿဖး မႈနမျခငးမားျဖစခရသည။ ထ႔အျပင ျမနမာေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕လပငနးတြင အပခပေရးပငးဆငရာ လက၀ါးႀကးအပမႈႏင ေစးကြက၀ငေရာကႏငမႈ အကန႔အသတမားရသည။ မၾကာေသးေသာ သးႏစတာကာလအတြငး ႏငငေတာပင မားက ပဂၢလကပငျပလပစဥ အတြငးအခ႕ေသာ စကသးဆအေရာငးဆငမားက ပဂၢလကလပငနးမားသ႔ေရာငးခခသည။ ၂၀၁၂ခႏစ ေဖေဖာ၀ါရလက တညးက ပဂၢလကလပငနးမားသည ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ထတကနမားတငပ႔ျခငး၊ တငသြငးျခငး၊ သေလာငေရာငးချခငးမားက တရား၀ငျပလပခေသာလညး လက၀ါးႀကးအပမႈက ရပတန႔ရနႏင ထတကနမားႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈမား ထေရာကေသာ လညပတမႈတးျမႇငေစရန ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမား ပမလပေဆာငရမညျဖစသည။ တညေဆာကရမည ေရနခကစက႐မား ေလာေလာဆယတြင ျမနမာႏငငက သနလငေရနခကစက႐၊ ေခာကေရနခကစက႐ႏင သပရာကန ေရနခကစက႐ဟ ၍ ေရနခကစက႐သးခသာတညေဆာကထားၿပး ၎တ႔အားလးမာ ရနကနတငးေဒသႀကးရ သနလငၿမ႕နယႏင မေကြးတငး ေဒသႀကးတြငသာ တညရသည။
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သကတမးအရညဆး ေရနခကစက႐တစခက ၁၉၅၄ ခႏစတြငတညေဆာကခၿပး ႏစကာ လမားရညၾကာလာေသာေၾကာင အျပညအ၀လညပတႏငျခငးမရေတာေပ။ စက႐သးခေပါငး ခကလပႏငမႈပမာဏမာ တစႏစလင ေရနစညေပါငး (၅၁၀၀၀)ရၿပး ယငးပမာဏသည ျပညတြငးလအပခကျဖညဆညးႏငျခငးမရေပ။ ျမနမာႏငင ေအာကပငး ကမး႐းတမးေဒသမားတြင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ ဓာတအားေပးစက႐သည အေရးႀကးေသာ အခနးက႑တစခတြင ပါ၀ငသည။ ျမနမာအစးရက ေရနခကစက႐သစ အသညးအသနတညေဆာကလသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ခနစေမလ ၂၇ ရကေန႔တြင ကငးပသည အစညးအေ၀း၌ သမၼတဥးသနးစနက တ႐တအမးသားေရနေကာပေရးရငး၏ ဥက႒အသစ Liao Yong Yuan အားျမနမာႏငငတြင ေရနခကစက႐မားတညေဆာကရန တကတြနးခသည။ အဆျပထားသည ျမနမာ-တ႐တေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးစမကနးတြင မႏေလး၌ ေရနခကစက႐တညေဆာကရနပါ၀ငသည ယငးစက႐မ တစေန႔လင ေရနစည ေပါငး (၅၆၀၀၀)ကခကလပႏငမညျဖစသည။ ထစက႐တညေဆာကျခငးျဖင တ႐တ-ျမနမာပကလငးမ တစႏစလင ေရန စမး တနေပါငးႏစသနးက ထတယခကလပႏငမညျဖစသည။ ထစက႐တြင ျမနမာႏငင(သ႔)အေရ႕အလယပငးမ ထတလပ သည ေရနစမးမားက ခကလပႏငမညျဖစၿပး ေရနထြကကနမားကလညး ထတလပၿပးေနာက ပကလငးေရာကရရာ ေနရာ မားသ႔ပ႔ေဆာငႏငမညျဖစသည။ ေရနခကစက႐၏ ေရနထတကနမားသည ျပညတြငးေစးကြကတြငးသ႔ပ႔ေဆာငႏငမည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ေရနခကစက႐တညေဆာကျခငးသည ျပညတြငးလအပခကက ျဖညဆညးႏငသည ႏငငတကာ သယယပ႔ေဆာငေရး၏ ကနကစရတႏငစြန႔စားရႏငသညမားက ႀကးႀကးမားမားေလာခႏငမညျဖစသည။ တညေဆာကရမည ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလ ငး ျမနမာႏငငတြင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ရငးျမစမားၾကြယ၀သလ ျပညတြငးဓာတေငြ႕အသးျပမႈမာလညး တးပြားလကရသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ဓာတေငြ႕ပ႔ေဆာငေရးပကလငးမားက တးခ႕ရန လအပသည။ ႏငငျခားသ႔ တငပ႔သည စြမးအငအားေကာငးေစ ရန နယျခားျဖတေကာ ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးမားတးတကရန၊ လအပသည။ ျမနမာစးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးလာမႈႏငအတ ႏငငတြငေနထင ၾကသမားကလညး ဓာတေငြ႕မားပမလအပလာမညျဖစသည။ အရနပ႔ေဆာငေရး ကြနရကအတြက လကရကလမတာ ၂၀၀၀ ရညေသာ ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးတးခ႕ရနလညးပါ၀ငသည။ အေျခအေနမားက ခြငျပလာခနတြင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငး သည ၿမ႕ႀကးမားရ အခ႕ေသာ အမေထာငစမားထသ႔ ေရာကရႏငမညျဖစသည။ ျပ႒ာနးရမည ေရနႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ဥပေဒ ျမနမာႏငငသည စြမးအငအတြက တကေသာ စညးကမးမား၊ အခြနေဆာငရနလအပသည ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြတးေဖာေရးအတြက ၎၏ တရားေရးစနစက တးတကေအာငျပလပရန လအပသည။ ေလာေလာဆယတြင ျမနမာႏငင၏စြမးအငလပငနးက ႏငငျခား ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမာ မားစြာေသာ ဥပေဒမား၊ စညးမဥးစညးကမးမားက လကနာေနရသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕တးေဖာထတလပေရးႏင စားသးမႈ တ႔ႏငဆကစပေသာ အခ႕မ၀ါဒမားက ေဖာေဆာငခသညတင သည တကေသာစြမးအငဥပေဒမား၊ စညးမဥးစညးကမးမားမရေသာေၾကာင စြမးအငက႑သည ရညမနးခကက အျပညအ၀ေအာငျမငေအာငေဆာငရြကႏငျခငးမရေပ။
151
“အျပင” မသည “အတြငး” ဆသ႔ - ျမနမာႏငင၏ စြမးအငစမကနးမားကတနျပနသည တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမား အသြငေျပာငးလလာျခငး
From ‘Outside’ to ‘Inside’: The Transformation of Activism over Energy Projects in Myanmar
Adam Simpson
Director, Centre for Peace, Conflict and Mediation, Hawke Research Institute University of South Australia
စြမးအငလၿခေရး ရာေဖြျခငးႏင ယၾကညကးစားေလာကေသာ ႏငငျဖတေကာစြမးအငေစးကြကမား တညေထာငျခငးသည အာရတစေလာက ႏငငေရးႏင အပခပမႈျပနလညပေဖာျခငး ေသာခကကေသာ အေၾကာငးတရားတရားမားထမ တစချဖစသည။ တ႐တႏင အႏၵယတ႔၏ စြမးအငလအပခကမား လင လငျမနျမနတးပြားေနျခငးႏငအတ အဆပါ ႏငငႀကးႏစခၾကားတြင တညရေနသည ျမနမာႏငငသည စြမး အငရငးျမစတစခႏင စြမးအငအလႊအေျပာငးလမးေၾကာငး တစရပအျဖစႏစႏငငလးအတြကအလြနသ သာထငျခငးသည ေနရာတစခအျဖစသ႔ေရာကရခသည။ ေဒသဆငရာ စြမးအငေစးကြကမား ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏင အတ လမႈေရးႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ သကေရာကမႈမား ျပငးျပငးထနထနႏင ကယကယျပန႔ ျပန႔ ျဖစပြားမည အလားအလာမားရသညႏငငျဖတေကာစြမးအငစမကနးမာ၏ ထေရာကေသာသဘာ၀ ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ အပခပမႈ အတြက အေရးတႀကးလအပခကတစချဖစလာသည။ မၾကာေသးမကာ လအထ ျမနမာတြင အစးရ ဥးေဆာငေသာအပခပမႈပစမားသညအာဏာပင၀ါဒႏင ျဖစကတကဆနးျဖစ ခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညးလကရေဖာေဆာငေနသညႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားႏငအတအစးရ သစသည ဒမကေရစနညးလမး ပကေသာ၊ အားေကာငးၿပး ပြငလငးျမငသာသည အပခပမႈပစ မားက ေဖာေဆာငရန ႀကးပမးေနသည။ အစးရမဟတေသာ လႈပရားသမား အထးသျဖင သဘာ၀ ပတ၀နးကင ဆငရာ တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားသည အဆပါ အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈတြင အေရးႀကးေသာ ပးေပါငးပါဝငမႈ တစရပျပလပႏငသည။သမငးေၾကာငးအရတကၾကြလႈပရားမႈအမားစသညႏငငျဖတေကာပစ ျဖစသညမာသဘာ၀ပငျဖစၿပး ထငးႏငငတြငအေျခစကေသာ ျပညေျပးတကၾကြလႈပရားသမား သ႔မဟတ ျမနမာအစး ရလကလမးမမႏငသည အျခားေနရာမားတြင အေျခစကသမားက လပ ေဆာငခၾကသည။ ႏငငေရးအရ ထည၀ငမႈႏင အတကအခမားအတြက အခြငအလမးမား ျမနမာ ႏငငတြင တးပြားလာ ခနတြင ျပညေျပး တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားလညး ျပနလာၿပး ျပညတြငးတကၾကြ လႈပရားသမားလညး ထြကေပၚလာကာ ျမနမာႏငငတြငး ၌ တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမားပမျဖစထြနးလာခသည။ ယခစာတမးသည ႏငငရပျခား ေရာက ျပညေျပးတကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမားမသည ျပညတြငးတကၾကြ လႈပရားမႈဆသ႔ အသြင ေျပာငးလာ သည ယငးတကၾကြလႈပရားမႈက ရာေဖြေဖာထတထားျခငးျဖစသည။ အထးသျဖင တ႐တ အေနာက ေတာငပငးအတြက စြမးအငေထာကပရန ျမနမာႏငငကျဖတကာ တညေဆာကလကရသည ေရနႏင သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးက ဆန႔ကငသည လႈပရားမႈမားႏင ဆကစပေနသညမားက ရာေဖြေဖာထတ ထားျခငးျဖစသည။ စစအစးရလကထကအတြငး ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရၿပး ပနကနထၾကြေသာ နယျခားေဒသ ရပရြာမားသည ျမနမာ ႏငင တြငအေျခစကသည ႏငငျဖတေကာ စြမးအငစမကနးမားက ဆန႔ကငသည သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကင ေရး ရာလႈပရားမႈမား ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအတြက အလြနေကာငးေသာေနရာမားျဖစခသည။ အႏရာယမားရေန သည ၾကားမပင အဆပါတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားသည ျမနမာနယျခားအျပငဘကတြငအေျခစကသည NGOမား အတြကသေတသနျပလပရန ႐ပဖကၿပး ျမနမာႏငငအတြငး ျပနလည၀ငေရာကေလရၾက သည။ အဆပါ
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တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားသည ျမနမာႏငငတြငးရ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရပရြာမားႏင နယျခား ေဒသရျပညေျပးမား ၾကား ကြနရကမားက တညေဆာကခၾကသည။(South-2004) လပငနးလပ ေဆာငရာဇနမား၏ ၾကားခ သဘာ၀အရ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားသည အမးမးေသာ လႈပရားမႈမားက လပေဆာငရန အေျခအေနတစရပရရခသည။ နယစပအေျခ စကမဟတေသာ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကင ေရးရာအပစမား သည ႐းရငးလစြာပင ေလာဘ အပစမား ျဖစၾကၿပး ယငးတ႔၏ လႈပရားမႈမားတြင ႏငငတကာလႈပရားသမားက ေလာဘလပျခငး၊ အစရငခစာ ေရးသားျခငး၊ အသြငယ ကြငးဆငးသေတ သနျပလပျခငး၊ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ပနးလးကြယလးပညာ ေပးျခငးႏင သငတနးေပးျခငးမားေဆာငရြကျခငးတ႔ ပါ၀ငသည။ စစအစးရအပခပသည ျမနမာႏငငမထြကေျပးလာခၾကေသာ ထသမား ျမနမာနယျခားေဒသမားႏင အမ နးခငးႏငငမားတြင တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမားတြငပါ၀ငၾကေသာအခါ ျမနမာႏငငတြင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကင ဆငရာ အပခပမႈမမားႏင စမကနးမားႏငပကသကသည တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားက ေထာကပခသည “ျပညပေရာက တကၾကြလႈပရားသမား” အျဖစေခၚဆႏငသည ရလဒတစချဖစလာခသည။ (Simpon 2013a)။ “ျပညပႏငငေရာကသမား” ဆေသာ ေ၀ါဟာရ၏ အားလးၿခႏငေသာ နယပယတစရပ ဆြဆန႔ႏငရန ႀကပမးခသညအခါ တစခါတစရ အဓပၸယ မလနးပါျဖစတကသည။ ဥပမာအားျဖင ပညာ ရပဆငရာ စာေပအရ လစဘရယ သ႔မဟတ တစမထးေသာ ျပညပႏငငေရာကသမားဆသည အဓပၸယ မးမာ Brubaker အဆအရ “လတငးလတငးသည ျပညပႏငငမားသ႔ သြားေရာကေနသမားျဖစၾကလင မညသတစဥးတစေယာကကမ ကြကြျပားျပားသတမတႏငေတာမညမဟတ” ဟ ဆသည အေနအထား သ႔ေရာကရသြားေစမည။ (2005: 3)။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျပညပႏငငရ ျမနမာ တကၾကြလႈပရားသမား ေ၀ါ ဟာရ၏ အစဥအလာ မကႏာစာမားေပၚတြင “ေနရာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးျခငး သ႔မဟတ မခငႏငငမ ပ႕ႏလာျခငး” (Butler 2001: 189) စသည အဓပၸယ အေပၚ အေျချပ႐သာမက Sokefeld ၏ အဆအတငး အသကအ၀နးအျဖစ မမဘာသာ ရငးလငးစြာ စတကးပထားသည မမတ႔ဘာသာထငရားမႈမားရေသာ အစအဖြ႕လကႏငငျဖတေကာပ႕ႏ လာျခငးျဖင “စတကးပေဖာထားသည ႏငငျဖတေကာ အသက အ၀နးမား”(2006: 267) ျဖစေနၾကသည။ ျပညပႏငငေရာက တကၾကြလႈပရားသမား အသကအ၀နး တစခႏင အကကျဖစသည စညး႐လႈ႕ေဆာျခငးပစမားႏင လမႈေရးဆငရာလႈပရားမႈ သအရအေပၚ သက ဥးတညသးသပျခငးျဖစသည။ အဆပါ အယအဆသည တငးရငးသားမားၾကား စညးလးညညြတမႈ ႏင လမႈလငဆငရာ ႏးၾကားမႈမရျခငးကသ႔ အခ႕ေသာ ျပညပႏငငေရာကအသကအ၀နးမားတြင ျဖစတတ သည အႏရာယမား (Anthias 1998)က ေရာငရားၿပး တးတကမႈႀကးႀကးမားရၿပး ဒမကေရစနညး ကေသာ တကၾကြ လႈပရားသအသကအ၀နးတစခမ ဆငးသကလာျခငးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ တငးရငးသားအသကအ၀နးအခ႕ၾကား ျပညေျပးဘ၀ေရာကခနတြင ေမးမနသြားဖြယရသညသေဘာ ထားကြလြမႈ မားရသညတင အဆပါသေဘာထားကြလြမႈမားသည သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ တကၾကြ လႈပရားသ မားအသကအ၀နးတြင အေတာပငမရသေလာကျဖစၿပး မဟာဗဟာေျမာကျခငးႏင သေဘာ တရားေရးရာ အေၾကာငးရငးခႏစခစလးအတြက တငးရငးသားေပါငးစ ပးတြေဆာငရြကျခငးဖြ႕ၿဖးရန မညသက သသာ ေသာ ႀကးပမးမႈမား ျပလပခသနညးဆသညျဖငသာ ဆးျဖတၾကသည။ ပးေပါငး ေဆာငရြကေရးျဖစထြနးေစတ ေနာကထပအေၾကာငးတရားတစခကေတာ တငးရငးသား ျပညနယမားစြာ န႔ ေဒသမားစြာက ျဖတသနးသြားၿပး ပထ၀အားျဖင ေရာကရေစတ ေရႊ ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးန႔ သလြငျမစ ဆညမားေၾကာငျဖစၿပး လႈပရားမႈမားဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈတြင တငးရငးသားေပါငးစပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈမာ အဆင ျမငျမငမားမားျဖစခကာ အလငအျမနပးေပါငးၾကသည။ ေမာမနးမထားသည ယငးပးေပါငး ေဆာငရြကမႈ သညျပညပႏငငေရာကတကၾကြလႈပရားမႈတစခ၏စ႐ကလကၡဏာအျဖစပထမဆး အဓပၸယဖြငဆရာ ျဖစသည။ ျပညပႏငငေရာက တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈတစခ၏ ဒတယေျမာက စ႐ကလကၡဏာမာ အခတအဆကမား
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တကၾကြစြာတညေဆာကျခငးႏင အထးျပအသပညာမားေထာကပျခငးအျပင ျပညပႏငငေရာက အသက အ၀နး၏ အျခားေသာ အဖြ႕၀ငမား တကယေတာခဥးကပမႈႏင ဆန႔ကငဘကျဖစေလရသည ႏငငျခား သ႔မဟတ “ျပငပ” အသကအ၀နးမားတြင ကယျပန႔ေသာ လႈပရားမႈ ကြနရကမား သ႔မဟတ ညႊန႔ေပါငး မားျဖစေပၚလာေစရန မရႏငေသာ ကၽြမးကငမႈမားရေထာကပျခငးျဖစသည။ ျပငပအပစမားအတြက ျပညေျပးတကၾကြလႈပရားသမား၏ အေရးပါမႈမာ ယငးတ႔၏ ျပညတြငးႏငငေရးကနားလညျခငးႏငအတ ယငးတ႔၏ သးျခားဘာသာစကားဆငရာႏင ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ အသပညာမားေပၚတြငမတညေနသည။ တစခါတစရတြင ေျမာကပငး သ႔မဟတ ထငးႏငငတ႔မာ လပငနးကစၥမားတြင ျပငပလမား မညသညအခါ မ ရရႏငဖြယမရေသာ သ႔မဟတ အျပညအ၀နားမလညႏငေသာ ခငမာသည ပဂၢလကအေတြ႕အႀကမား ေၾကာင ပမထေရာကခသည။ ျမနမာျပညေျပးမား၏ “အတြငးလ” အသပညာမားေၾကာင အျခားနညးျဖင မေအာငျမငႏငေသာ ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ျပန၀ငကာ ပေျပာငး သေတသနလပရနႏင အျခားေသာ တကၾကြ လႈပရားသမား လကလမးမမႏငသညကၽြမးကငမႈမားက ျပငပလမား သ႔မဟတ ႏငငျဖတေကာ အရပဘက လ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားေထာကပေပးခသည။ ထနညးျဖင ျပညပႏငငေရာက တကၾကြလႈပရား သမားသည ယငးတ႔၏ အသကအ၀နးအတြက ထးထးျခားျခားသကဆငသည အေရးကစၥမားက အမား သေအာငလပျခငးႏင မးေမာငးထးျပျခငးမားျပလပလာႏငၿပး ယငးတ႔၏ လႈပရားမႈမားအား ျပငပလမား ၏ အာ႐စကမႈမား ရရလာသည။ ျပညပႏငငေရာက တကၾကြလႈပရားသတစေယာက၏ တတယမကႏာစာမာ ပမကယျပန႔ေသာ လႈပရား မႈမားလပေဆာငရန ကၽြမးကငမႈမားေပးျခငးႏင ျပငပတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားႏင ဆကဆလပကငျခငး ျဖင မမတ႔၏ အသကအ၀နးတြင အေရးပါေသာအခနးက႑ကရရကာ ႏငငျခားတငးျပညတစခတြင အထးတညးျဖစမႈက ခစား ရဖြယရသည ျပညေျပးမားတြင အဂၤလပဘာသာစကားကၽြမးကငမႈအပါအ၀င မမကယကယယၾကညမႈ ႏင ကၽြမးကငမႈမားတးျမငေစခသည။ ျပညေျပးအသကအ၀နး မားၾကား တြငရသည တစဖကတြင “ေမာလငခက (ႏင) ခခမႈ” ႏင အျခားတစဖကတြင အားနညးျခငးႏင အျခားတစဖက “ေမာလငခကမမႈ၊ နာကငမႈႏင စတပါ၀ငစားမႈမရျခငး”တ႔ၾကား စတခစားမႈမားက ခနည ႏငမႈအားနညးျခငးက မမတ႔၏ ျပညပႏငငေရာက အသကအ၀နးႏင ျပငပအသကအ၀နးၾကား အား ေကာငးေသာ အခနအဆကႏစက ထေထာငျခငးျဖင ထသတ႔သည မမတ႔၏ ဘ၀သစမားတြင ေအာင ေအာငျမငျမငအသားတကအျဖစႏငဆးျဖစၾကမညဟ ယဆၾကသည။ (Mavroudi 2008: 70)။ ျပညပ ႏငငေရာက ျမနမာတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားၾကား ကြနရကမားသည ထငးႏငငတြင ယခငကတညးက အေျခစကတညရခသလပင အျခားေသာ ႏငငျဖတေကာ တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားႏင အခတအဆက၊ အဆကအသြယမားက ရရေစခၿပး နယျခားျဖတေကာ စြမးအငစမကနးႏင ျမနမာျပည ဒမကေရစအသြင ကးေျပာငးေရး လႈပရားမႈႏစရပစလးက လပေဆာငႏငခၿပး ႏငငရပျခား လထပရသတၾကား ပမျပန႔ႏ႔ေစ ခသည။ (Simpon 2013b) ေရႊ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႔ပကလ ငးႏငပကသကေသာ တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမား ရခငျပညနယမ တ႐တႏငင၊ ယနနျပညနယသ႔ ဓာတေငြ႕မားပ႔ေဆာငမည ေရႊ ဓာတေငြ႕ပကလငးႏင ပကသကေသာ တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမားက ခငးမငရ ေရႊ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕လႈပရားမႈ (SGM) ႏင ရခင ေရနေစာငၾကညေရး (AOW)တ႔က မၾကာေသးမကအထ အမားဆးဥးေဆာငခၾကသည။ အာဏာရငအစး ရ အမားစေအာကတြငျဖစေလရသညအတငးပင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ႏငငေရးတကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမားမာ သမား႐း ကပစမားသာျဖစၿပး ေရႊ စမကနးက တက႐ကစနေခၚမည ျပညတြငး NGO မားထေထာငျခငး မရဘသကဆငေသာ လငယမားက မမတ႔စြမးအားက အျခားေသာ အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာ အေဆာကအအ တြငးမပါ၀ငခၾကသည။ ၂၀၀၄ခႏစတြငရခငျပညနယၿမ႕ေတာတြငတညရသည စစေတြတကသလ ေကာငးသားတစဥးျဖစသသရနသညေကာငးသားအေရးက ကယစားျပသည ေကာငးသားအဖြ႕ အစညး
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တစခ ျဖစသည တကသလပညာသငစရတေထာကပေရးႏင ရခငလႈမႈေရးအသငးက ထေထာငခသည။ ေရႊစမကနး၏အေသးစတအခကအလကမားတျဖညးျဖညးထြကေပၚလာခနတြင အသငးသည သကဆင ေသာ စကားအေျခအတငစစထးပြႏင ေဆြးေႏြးမႈတ႔အတြက ဆခကျဖစလာခသည။ အျခားပစတစရပျဖင ျပလပေသာ စေ၀းေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားလပသလ သတငးအခကအလကမားပမရရရန ထငးႏငငရ AWO ႏင SGM တ႔ကသ႔ေသာ ျပညေျပးအဖြ႕အစညးမားႏငလညး ဆကသြယခၾကသည။ သတ႔၏ လႈပရားမႈမားက စစေထာကလမးေရးမားက ေဖာထတခၿပး ၂၀၀၉ ခႏစတြင အဖြ႕၀ငေကာငးသား ၉ ဥးဖမးဆးခခရကာ မတရားသငး (ဥပမာ-ျပညေျပး) မားႏငဆကသြယမႈ၊ ထငး သ႔မဟတ အႏၵယသ႔ တရားမ၀ငနယျခားျဖတ ေကာမႈစသည တရားမ၀ငလႈပရားမႈႏစခအတြက ေထာငဒဏသးႏစစျဖင ေထာငဒဏေျခာကခခမတခခ ရသည။9 အဆပါ ေကာငးသားငယမားသည အျခားေသာ ျပညနယမားႏင ေဒသမားရ အကဥးေထာင မားသ႔ ပ႔ေဆာငခခရၿပး အခ႕မာ ႏငငေျမာကဖားပငးရ ကခငျပညနယအထ ပ႔ေဆာငခခရၿပး အသက အရြယႀကးေသာ သ႔မဟတ ဆငးရေသာ မဘေဆြမးမား သြားေရာကရန ခကခေစခသည။ အစးရသစ လကထကတြင လၿခေရးအရေျဖေလာမႈမားျပလပၿပး အဖြ႕၀ငအမားစက ၂၀၁၂ ဇနန၀ါရ၀ါရတြင လြတ ၿငမးခမးသာခြငျပခသညတင ေလးဥးမာ ေထာငဒဏကခေနရဆျဖစသည။10 သရနသည ဖမးဆးခရ မညအေရးမ တမးေရာငႏငခၿပး ၂၀၁၀ တြင ထငးႏငငသ႔ ထြကေျပးလာခၿပး AOW ၏ လႈပရားမႈ ညႏႈငး ေဆာငရြကေရးမးပင ျဖစလာခသည။ အဆပါ ျပညတြငး ႏငငေရးလႈပရားမႈမားအေပၚ ကန႔သတခကမားက ၂၀၁၁ ေႏာငးပငးတြင စတင ႐ပ သမး လာခသည။ ေရဓာတေငြ႕၏ ၈၀ ရာခငႏႈနးက တ႐တႏငငသ႔ တငပ႔ေရာငးခၿပး ကနဓာတေငြ႕ထမ အမားစက ျမနမာႏငငအလယပငးရ စစတပႏငနးစပသညဟ ေကာၾကားေသာ ကမၸဏမားပင စက႐မား တြင အသးျပမညဟ စြမးအင၀နႀကး ဥးသနးေဌးက ၂၀၁၁ ေအာကတဘာတြငေျပာၾကားသည လႊတ ေတာမန႔ခြနးတြင အတညျပခသည။ အဆပါအတညျပခကက တ႔ျပနျခငးႏင ႏငငေရးဆငရာ ကန႔သတ မႈမား ေျဖေလာျခငးတ႔ေၾကာငး ျပညတြငးလႈပရားမႈသည ပမပြငလငးၿပး ျမငသာလာခသည။ လႈပရားမႈ တြငပါ၀ငသညေဆာငရြကခကတစခမာ ပကလငးျဖတသြားသည တငးရငးသားျပညနယႏစချဖစေသာ ရခင ျပညနယႏင ရမးျပညနယ အစးရမားထသ႔ စာမားေရးသားၿပး လယသမားမား၏ လယယာေျမမား က ကးေကာျခငး၊ နစနာေၾကးေပးရန ပကကြကျခငးႏင လမးမားပကဆးျခငးတ႔ကသ႔ေသာ ပကလငး တည ေဆာကႏငပကသကၿပး တငၾကားခကမားက မညသ႔လပေဆာငမညနညးက ေမးျမနးခသည။11 ဓာတေငြ႕က တငပ႔ေရာငးချခငးမျပမ ရခငျပညနယက ၂၄ နာရလပစစမးေပးရနအတြက ဓာတေငြ႕က အသးျပရနေတာငးဆမႈပါ၀ငသည သဘာ၀သယဇာတအခြငအေရးမား၏ အယအဆမားက ထညသြငး ေဖာျပထားေသာ လႈပရားမႈတြင ပမထပတကေတြ႔ဆကာ ခငမာၿပး ဆန႔ကငေသာ အဆမားလညး ျဖစ လာခသည။ ရခငျပညနယသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ အဆငးရဆးျပညနယတစချဖစကာ လတစဥးခငးစ လပ စစဓာတအားအသးျပမႈ အနမဆးျဖစသညဟ ႏငငပငသတငးစာအရသရရသည။ အသစျဖစထြနးလာ သည လြတလပခြငေပးေသာ ႏငငေရး၀နးကငေၾကာင ျပညတြငး တကၾကြလႈပရားသမား ယခကသ႔ ေတာငးဆမႈမးက ပထမဆးအႀကမအျဖစ ပြငလငးစြာ လပေဆာငရန ျဖစလာႏငခသည။ ျပညနယတစ ၀မးတြင “၂၄ နာရ လပစစမး အခေပး။ ကၽြႏပတ႔ ဓာတေငြ႕ကသးရန ကၽြႏပတ႔ အခြငအေရးရသည” ဆ ေသာ စာသားမား ႐ကႏပထားသည တရပမား၊ ပစတာမား၊စတစကာမားႏင ျပကၡဒနမားေပၚထြကလာခ သည။ (Mizzima 2012)။ ၂၄ နာရ လပစစမးရရေရး ေတာငးဆမႈသည ရခငျပညနယရ တငးရငးသားပါတမားျဖစေသာ ၂၀၁၀ ေရြး
9 သရနႏငေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးျခငး၊ ခငးမင ထငးႏငင၊ ၁၂ ေဖေဖာဝါရ ၂၀၁၂။ 10 ျဖးျဖး (အမညရငးမဟတ) ႏငေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးျခငး၊ ရနကန ျမနမာႏငင၊ ၁၈ ေဖေဖာဝါရ ၂၀၁၂။ 11 Patrick (အမညရငးမဟတ) ႏငေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးျခငး၊ ခငးမင ထငးႏငင၊ ၁၃ ေဖေဖာဝါရ ၂၀၁၂။
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ေကာကပြတြငပါ၀ငယဥၿပငၿပး အမးသားလြတေတာအတြငး လႊတေတာကယစားလယမားရသည ရခင အမးသားဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးပါတ (RNDP) ႏင ၂၀၁၀ ေရြးေကာကပြကသပတေမာကခေသာလညး ၂၀၁၁ တြင NLDႏငအတ ပါတတစရပအျဖစမတပတငခေသာ ရခငဒမကေရစအဖြ႔ခပ (ALD) တ႔ ႏငအတ အသဟနးလာခသည။12 ႏစပါတစလးတကၾကြလႈပရားထက ထပတကေတြ႕ဆမႈနညးေသာလညး ပကလငးစမကနးမ အလားအလာရေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖး ေရးဆငရာ အကးအျမတမားက ေတြ႕ျမငခၿပး ကခင ျပညနယတြင တညေဆာကသည ျမစဆဆညထက လမႈဘ၀ေရးရာႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ ပကစးမႈမားစြာနညးပါးသညဟ RNDP အေထြေထြအတြငး ေရးမး ဥးဥးလေစာက မတခကျပခသည။13 တကယတမးတြင ရခငျပညနယ၌ ႏငငျခားတက႐ကရငးႏးျမပ ႏမႈမားက သကႀကဆေသာလညး ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈႏင ႏငငတကာစႏႈနးမားက ေလးစားမႈ ပရေသာ အေမရကန ႏင ဥေရာပသမဂၢ တ႔က တ႐တထကပမႏစသကသညဟ ဆသည။ မညသ႔ပငဆေစ မမတ႔သည စမကနးက ရပတန႔ႏငမညမ ဟတေစကာမ ကန ၂၀ ရာခငႏႈနးေသာ ဓာတေငြ႔မားက ရခငျပညနယဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအတြက အသးျပသင သညဟ ဥးဥးလေစာက လႊတေတာတြင တငျပခၿပး ယငးရညမနးခကက အေကာငအထည ေဖာရန “၂၄ နာရ မးလငးေရး ေကာမတ” တစရပက ထေထာငရန အႀကျပခသည။ ALD အေထြေထြ အတြငးေရးမး ဥးေအးသာေအာငကလညး လႊတေတာျပငပမ အလားတထငျမငခကမး ထတေဖာေျပာဆ ခေသာလညး ဆးျဖတခကခသညျဖစစဥမားတြင ျပညသမား၏ပါ၀ငမႈပမလအပေၾကာငးႏင လကရကနထရကစာ ခပမားအရ ရခငျပညနယသည “ဘာမ မရရ” ဟ ဆသည။ နညးပညာပငးဆငရာ အလပသမားမား အားလးက တ႐တႏငငမေခၚေဆာငလာၿပး အလပၾကမးသမားမားစြာက ျမနမာႏငငအလယပငးမ ေခၚ ေဆာငခသည။14 လကရအခနတြင ေဒသခလႈပရားသမားက ရခငျပညနယမထြကရေသာ ဓာတေငြ႕မား ႏငပကသကၿပး ႏငငေရးအရ အလြနပြငလငးစြာေတာငးဆခၾကၿပး ႏငငတကာစြမးအငေစးကြကတြင တ႐တကေရာငးခေနျခငးထက ဓာတေငြ႕အားလးက ျပညနယတြငသာဆကလကထားရရန တကၾကြလႈပ ရားသမားက ေတာငးဆၾကသည။ နဂး ျပညပေရာက ျမနမာတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားသည ျပညတြငးရ “အတြငး” တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမား၏ ႀကးထြား ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏငထေရာကမႈတ႔က တးျမငလာေစရန ထေရာကစြာ အသးျပႏငမည ကၽြမးကငမႈမားႏငႏငငတကာ ကြနရကမားရၾကသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျပညတြငးႏငငေရးႏင စးပြားေရးပတ၀နးကငတြင လငျမန ေသာ အေျပာငးအလမားေၾကာင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးမားလပငနးမားက ဆကလကလပကငေနေသာ “ျပငပ” အေျခ စက တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားအတြက စနေခၚမႈမားျဖစေပၚေစၿပး ဆေလာေနဆျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ဒတယႏစ၀ကတြင ေရႊဓာတေငြ႔ပငးလငးသည စးပြားျဖစလပငနးလညပတမႈျပလာမညျဖစသလ ျမနမာႏငငတစ၀မးလးတြငလညး လမႈေရးႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ သသာေသာ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးမႈမား ျဖစေပၚေစမည အလားအလာမားရသည စြမးအငႏင သယဇာတစမကနးမား လာမညႏစအနညးငယ အတြငး အမားအျပားေပၚထြကလာဖြယရသည။ အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားသည အဆပါစမကနး မား၏ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ အပခပမႈတြင အေရးႀကးေသာ အျခားအျမငတစရပျဖင ပါ၀ငႏင႐သာမ က ျမနမာအေရးတြင အတြငးရ တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားႏင ႏငငတကာအေတြ႕အႀကရသမားသည ျမနမာ အစးရႏင ယငး၏ ျပညသ႔၀နေဆာငမႈမားတြင ဆးဆးရြားရြားလစဟငးေနသည ကၽြမးကငမႈမားႏင ပညာ ရပဆငရာ ကၽြမးကငမႈမားကလညး ေထာကပေပးသြားႏငမညျဖစသည။
12 ရခငဒမကေရစအဖြ႔ခပ ကေရြးေကာကပြဝငရနဆးျဖတခတချပးမၾကာမတြငပင ပါတအေထြေထြ အတြငးေရးမး ၏ေနအမေရ႕တြင ႏစေပါငးႏစဆယ ေကာၾကာခထားေသာ အရပဝတႏငလျခေရးမား ကဖယရားေပးခသညဟသရသည။ ဥးေအးသာေအာငႏငေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးျခငး၊ ရနကန ျမနမာႏငင၊ ၂၀ ဇနနဝါရ ၂၀၁၂။ (ေဇာျမတလငး ရခငဘာသာမျပနဆေပးသည) 13 ဥးဥးလေစာႏငေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးျခငး၊ ရနကန ျမနမာႏငင၊ ၂၀ ဇနနဝါရ ၂၀၁၂။
14 ဥးေအးသာေအာငႏငေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးျခငး၊ ရနကန ျမနမာႏငင၊ ၂၀ ဇနနဝါရ ၂၀၁၂။ (ေဇာျမတလငး ရခငဘာသာမျပနဆေပးသည)
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ရညညြနး
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Political Geography. January, 27(1): 1‐138.
Mizzima. 8 February 2012. ‘PTT ready to expand its Burma oil business’. http://www.mizzima.com/business/6558‐ptt‐ready‐to‐expand‐its‐burma‐oil‐business.html. Accessed: 12 February 2012.
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Cross‐border activism under a regime in transition.’ Pacific Review. May, 26(2).
‐‐‐‐‐‐ 2013b. Energy, Governance and Security in Thailand and Myanmar (Burma): A Critical Approach to Environmental Politics in the South. Farnham: Ashgate, forthcoming.
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ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒ ျပငဆငေရး ၂၀၁၃ တြင ျမနမာႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၏ ဆခကပြ င
Amending Constitution: Focal Point of Myanmar’s Political Development in 2013
Wang Zichang School of International Studies, Jinan University, Guangzhou
China [email protected]
ႏငငေရးဆငရာဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ
ယခစာတမးတြငဆလသည ႏငငေရးဆငရာဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈဆသညမာ ပထမအခကအေနျဖင ျပညသ႔ရငးျမစ မားက ယခငကထက မတစြာခြေ၀လာျခငး၊ ဒတယအခကအေနျဖင အာဏာမားက ယခငကထက ဥပေဒစး မးမႈအရ လကခရရျခငးႏင ကငသးျခငးတ႔ျဖစသည။ ဒတယ စႏႈနးသည ပထစႏႈနးက မျဖစ မေနလကနာရမညျဖစသည။ ႏငငတစႏငင၏ ႏငငေရးဆငရာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈမားသည ႏငငေရးအာဏာရသ မားၾကား အျပနအလနဆကဆေရးမားမ ထြကေပၚလာေသာ ရလဒမားျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈက ကၽြႏပတ ဘာအေၾကာငးေၾကာင ေလလာသငသနညး။ ကၽြႏပတ႔အား ျပညစေသာ ေကာကခကခရနႏင ျမနမာအေျခအေနမားက ခန႔မနးရန မေဘာငတစခက ေပးႏငေသာေၾကာငျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈက ဘယလေလလာသးသပမႈျပမညနညး။ ႏငငေရးေခါငးေဆာငတစေယာက၏ ျပငးျပေသာဆႏၵႏင လပေဆာငမႈမားကသာ ဥးတညမညအစား မားစြာေသာ ႏငငေရးအာဏာရသမားအၾကား အျပနအလနဆကဆေရးမားက ကၽြႏပတ႔ ဥးတညရန လ အပသည။ ၂၀၁၃ တြင ျမနမာႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၏ ဆခကပြ င ပထမအခကအေနျဖင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကည၏ သမၼတျဖစေရးအပမကအတြက ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခ ခဥပေဒ ျပငဆငေရး ယခမစၿပး လာမညတစႏစ သ႔မဟတ ႏစႏစကာလအတြငး သမၼတ၏ အရညအခငးမားအတြက ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရးေတာငးဆမႈသည ျမနမာႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၏ ဆခကပြငျဖစလာလမ မည။ ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညသည ၂၀၁၅တြင ျမနမာႏငင သမၼတျဖစေရးအတြက ၀ငေရာကယဥၿပငလ ေသာေၾကာငျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒအရ ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညသည အဂၤလပလမးႏငလက ထပခၿပး အဂၤလနႏငငသား သားႏစေယာကရေသာေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငင၏ သမၼတအျဖစ ေရြးေကာကခ
158
ႏငမညမဟတေပ။ သ႔ေသာ ၂၀၁၅ ခႏစတြင သမၼတျဖစေရးအတြက မမေရြးေကာကပြယဥၿပငလ ေၾကာငး ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညက သမ၏ ျပငးျပေသာဆႏၵက အႀကမမားစြာ ထတေဖာေျပာဆခသည။ သမ၏ သမၼတျဖစေရးအပမကက သမ အမနတကယအေကာငအထညေဖာလလင ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပ အေျခခဥပေဒ ျပငဆငရန လေလာကေသာေထာကခမႈရရေအာင သမလႈ႕ေဆာစညး႐းရမညျဖစသည။15 လတတေလာ ေလလာေစာငၾကညမႈမားအရ ၂၀၁၂ တြင သမၼတျဖစေရးအတြက သမသာ တကယ တနးလပေဆာငမညဆပါက ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညသည လေလာကေသာ မအေရအတြကက ရႏင သည။ ရညၾကာခေသာ အတတကာလတြင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညႏင အမးသားဒမကေရစအဖြ႕ခပ (NLD) တ႔သည ျမနမာဒမကေရစအေရးအတြက သမဥးေဆာငကာ စစအစးရအား မဆတမနစ တကပြ၀ငခသည။ ထသ႔ႀကးပမးခမႈေၾကာင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညသည ျမနမာဒမကေရစျပယဂျဖစခ ၿပး သာမနလထ၏ ေထာကခမႈရရချခငးျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၅ ေနာကပငးတြင ျမနမာႏငငက ဥးေဆာငရန အတြက ျမနမာႏငင၏ လာမညသမၼတေရြးေကာကပြ၀ငေရာကယဥၿပငရန သတ႔က ေထာကခၾကသည။ ယငးေနရာတြင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကည သမၼတျဖစေရးက NLD ကေထာကခခသည အခကမာ ယငးတ႔ လပေနၾကအတငး လမးေပၚထြက စတနးလမးေလာကျခငးကသ႔ လပေဆာငမႈမားက မလပချခငးျဖစ သည။ ထအစား ယငးတ႔၏ ေထာကခမႈကျပသရန လႊတေတာ၏ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခ ခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရး ေကာမတတြငပါ၀ငျခငး၊ ဖြ႕စညးပ အေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရးႏငပကသကေသာ ႏငငတကာေဆြးေႏြး ပြမားတြငပါ၀ငျခငးမားကသ႔ တရား ဥပေဒဆငရာ လႈပရားမႈမားကသာလပေဆာငခသည။ တစခန တညးမာပင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညကလညး အနာဂတႏငငေရးအေဆာကအအတြင လကနကကင တပဖြ႕မားႏငပကသကေသာ သမ၏ အျမငမားက ရငးရငးလငးလငး ထတဖာေျပာဆျခငးျဖင စစတပ ေထာကခမႈရရန ႀကးပမးခသည။ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရးႏငပကသကၿပး ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကည၏ ေနာကဆးထတေဖာျပသ ခကမာ လႊတေတာေရြးေကာကပြတြင ပါ၀ငယဥၿပငျခငးျဖစၿပး NLD သာ အမားစ အႏငရခပါက ေနာက သမၼတအျဖစ လႊတေတာက ေရြးခယႏငရန သမႏင NLD တ႔သည ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရး က ႀကးပမးၾကသည။ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရးအတြက ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညႏင NLD တ႔၏ ေတာငးဆမႈက အာဏာရပါတေခါငးေဆာငမားက အမးမးတ႔ျပနခၾကသည။ ဥးေအာငမငးက ေကာငးေသာတ႔ျပနမႈေပး ခသည။ ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညႏင NLD တ႔၏ ေတာငးဆမႈက မမေထာကခသညဟ သက ေျပာဆခ သည။ ျပညေထာငစႀက႕ခငေရးႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးပါတ USDP ဒတယ ဥကဌ ဥးေဌးဥးက ဆးေသာ တ႔ျပနမႈ ေပးခသည။ လကရအခနတြင ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒက ျပငဆငရန အစစဥမရဟ သက ဆသည။ သမၼ တဥးသနးစနက ေပာေပာေပာငးေပာငးတ႔ျပနခသည။ အဆပါကစၥက ျပညသမားႏင လြတေတာက ဆး ျဖတၾကလမမညဟတ သက ဆသည။ အျပညအလနေျပာဆမႈမားကၾကညလင ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒက ယခႏငတြင ျပငဆငႏငမညမဟတ ဟ
15 ၿပညေထာငစသမၼတၿမနမာနငငေတာ ဖြ႔စညးပအေၿခခဥပေဒ၊ အခနး (၃) နငငေတာသမၼတနင ဒတယသမၼတမား၊ ပဒမ ၅၉ (စ) တြငေအာကပါ အတငး ျပဌနး ထားပါသည။ “မမကယတငေသာလညးေကာငး၊ မမ၏မဘ တစပါးပါး ေသာလညးေကာငး၊ မမ၏ဇနးသမဟတ ခငပြနးေသာလညးေကာငး၊ မမ၏ တရား ဝငသားသမးတစဦးဦးေသာလညးေကာငး၊ထတရားဝငသားသမးတစဦးဦး၏ဇနးသမဟတခငပြနးေသာလညးေကာငးနငငျခားအစးရ၏ ေကးဇးသစၥာေတာက ခယ ေစာငေရာကရေသသသမဟတ နငငျခားအစးရ၏လကေအာကချဖစသသမဟတတငးတစပါး၏ နငငသားျဖစသ မားမျဖစေစရ၊ထသမားသည နငငျခားအစးရ၏ လကေအာကချဖစသေသာလညးေကာငး၊တငးတစပါး၏ နငငသားေသာလညးေကာငးခစား ရေသာ အခြငအေရးမားနင ေကးဇး ခစားခြငမားက ခစားနငခြငရသမားမျဖစေစရ၊”
159
ေကာကခကခႏငသည။ ဒတယအခကေေနျဖင လနညးစတငးရငးသားမား၏ ေတာငးဆမႈက ျဖညဆညးရန ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညး ပအေျခခဥပေဒက ျပငဆငေရး ဥပေဒအရ လနညးစတငးရငးသားမား၏ ေဒသခလကနကကငတပဖြ႕ LAFM မားက နယျခား ေစာငတပ BGF အျဖစ အသြငေျပာငးရန ဗဟအစးရက လလားသည။ ဥပေဒတြင ျပဌာနးထားသည အခကမားမာ စတေကနပေလာကဖြယမရဟ LAFM မားက ယဆၿပး ဗဟအစးရ၏ လအပခကမားက ျငငးဆခသည။ ထ႔ေနာက ဗဟအစးရက ယငးတ႔အား တကခကခသည။ ယခအခနတြင ဗဟအစးရသည “ေခာတစခါ ေျခာကတစလည” မဟာဗဟာက ကငသးသည။ တကပြ မားျဖစပြားေနခနမာပင ပဋပကၡက ၿငမးခမးစြာ အဆးသတရန ဗဟအစးရက Union Peace Making Committee ႏင Union Peace Working Committee ႏစရပကလညး ဖြ႕စညးခသည။ ၂၀၁၂ ခႏစတြင ဗဟ အစးရသည LAFM ေျခာကဖြ႕ႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးသေဘာတညခက လကမတေရးထးခသည။ ဗဟအစးရ ႏင ဆကလကတကခကေနေသာ အဖြ႕တစခမာ ကခငလြတေျမာကေရးအဖြ႕ KIO ျဖစသည။ ပဋပကၡ မားဆကလကျဖစပြားေနရသည အေၾကာငးမာ အပစအခတရပစေရးအတြက ကနဥးသေဘာတညခက မားက ႏစဖကစလးက သေဘာမတႏငေသာေၾကာင ျဖစသည။ လတတေလာ ပဋပကၡမား၏ အဓကအေၾကာငးတရားမာ ဗဟအစးရက ၁၉၄၇ ပငလစာခပက ေဖာက ဖကခေသာေၾကာငျဖစသညဟ KIO ေခါငးေဆာငမားက ေထာကျပသည။ ဖကဒရယအစးရေအာက တြင လနညးစတငးရငးသားမား၏ အဆငအတနးႏင အခြငအေရးမားဆငရာျပနာမားက ပထမဆး ေျဖရငး ၿပးမသာ ၿငမးခမးေရးသေဘာတညခကမားက ညႏႈငးသငသညဟ ယငးတ႔က ယဆသည။ ဗဟ အစးရ ကမ အပစအခတရပစေရးကသာ ဥးစြာသေဘာတၿပး ႏငငေရးအရ အေျဖရာမညအစအစဥမားက ညႏႈငးမညဟ တစစကမတမတေျပာဆခသည။ ဗဟအစးရႏင LAFM မားၾကား အျပနအလနဆကဆေရးမားကၾကညၿပး ပဋပကၡမား၏ ဆခကမာ အခြင အေရးမားခြေ၀ျခငးျဖစသညဟ ေကာကခကခႏငသည။ ၁၉၄၇ ပငလစာခပပါ အျမငဆးကယပငအပ ခပခြငက KIO က လခငသည။ ဗဟအစးရကမ လနညးစတငးရငးသားမားလလားေသာ ကယပငအပ ခပခြငက မေပးလေပ။ ကာလရည ပဋပကၡမားကၾကညလင ႏငငတစႏငင၏ ႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈတြင အခြငအေရးမား မတစြာခြေ၀ျခငး စႏႈနးမားက အေလးထားရမညဟ ကၽြႏပတ႔ ထပမေတြ႕ရရျပနသည။ မလအေျခအေနက ျပနသြားျခငးႏင အာဏာကကငသးျခငး စႏႈနးသည ယခငစႏႈနးမားက လကနာရ မညျဖစသည။ ထသ႔မဟတလင ရလဒသည ပမာဏႀကးမားေသာ လကနကကင ပဋပကၡျဖစသြားဖြယရ ၿပး ပမျပငးထနေသာ သတျဖတမႈမားဆ ေရာကရသြားဖြယရသည။ တကခကမႈမားက ရပၿပး အပစအခတရပစေရးေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားျပလပသြားမညဟ ၂၀၁၃ တြင ဗဟအစးရ က တစဖကသတေၾကညာခသည။ ေမလ ၂၈ ရကေန႔တြင တ႐တႏင ကလသမဂၢကယစားလယမား ပါ၀ငၿပး ျမစႀကးနားရ Magweal ခနးမတြင ၿငမးခမးေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြမားကငးပခသည။ ဗဟအစးရႏင KIO ၾကား အျပနအလနဆကဆေရးတြင ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒႏင လြတေတာတြင မတ ေသာ ခြေ၀မႈကတးျမငေရးကသ႔ အာဏာကငသးမႈ၏ မလအေျခအေနက တးျမငႏငျခငးမရခဘ အခြင အေရးမတစြာခြေ၀ျခငးအတြက KIO ၏ ႀကးပမးမႈသည ျမနမာႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၏ အေရးႀကးေသာ အစတအပငးတစရပျဖစေနဆျဖစသည။
160
ျပနာေျပလညေရး အဓကေသာခကမာ ဗဟအစးရ၏ ႐းေျဖာငမႈႏင လပေဆာငမႈမားပငျဖစသည။ ကခငႏင အျခားတငးရငးသားလနညးစမား၏ ကယပငအပခပခြငရရန ၁၉၄၇ ခႏစ ပငလသေဘာတ ညခကမားအရ ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒက ဗဟအစးရက ျပငဆငလသေလာဆသညပငျဖစသည။
161
ျမနမာႏငငအေမရကနႏငဂပနတ႔၏ မ၀ါဒအၾကား ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈႏင ၿပ ငဆ ငမႈ
Cooperation and Competition between U.S. and Japan’s Policy towards Myanmar
Bi Shihong School of International Studies, Yunnan University
[email protected] ၂၀၁၀ ျပညႏစ ဇနန၀ါရလတြင ႏစေပါငး၂၀ အတြငးပထမဆးအႀကမကငးပခသည အေထြေထြေရြးေကာကပြၿပးေနာက မတလတြင စစအစးရ၏ေနရာက ေရြးေကာကခအစးရက ၀ငေရာကလာခသည။ ၂၀၁၂ခႏစ ဧၿပလ ၁ ရကေန႔တြင ျမနမာအတကအခပါတ အမးသားဒမကေရစအဖြ႕ခပ (NLD) ၾကားျဖတေရြးေကာကပြတြင အႏငရရချပး ပါတေခါငးေဆာင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညသညလညး မအျပတအသတအႏငရကာ လႊတေတာကယစားလယျဖစလာခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငေရး အေျခအေနအေျပာငးအလမားေၾကာင တငးျပည၏ တညၿငမမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအတြက ေမာလငခကမားေဆာငၾကဥးလာခၿပး အေမရကနႏငဂပနတ႔အတြက ျမနမာႏငငႏင လညးေကာငးတ႔၏ ဆကဆေရးတးျမႇငရနအခြငအလမးမားရရခကာ ျမနမာ သတမနေရးအတြက ေနရာကယျပန႔လာခသည။ အေမရကနႏငဂပန ကယစားလယမားသည ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ အဆကမျပတ သြားေရာကလညပတခသည။ ျမနမာအစးရသစႏငထေရာကၿပး လကေတြ႕ကေသာ ဒငယာေလာမားျပလပကာ ပးေပါငး ေဆာငရြကမႈမားစတငၾကသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေမရကနႏင ဂပနမ၀ါဒအၾကားပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈႏင ၿပငဆငမႈတ႔ သည ျမနမာျပညတြငးေရးႏင ႏငငျခားဆကဆေရးတြင မကႏာစာမားစြာ သကေရာကလမမညက ယမားသသယရစရာ အေၾကာငးမျမငေပ။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔၏ မ၀ါဒမားက သးသပရငး ယခစာတမးက ဂပနႏင အေမရ ကနၾကားပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈႏင ၿပငဆငမႈက ေဆြးေႏြးသြားမညျဖစသည။ တ႐တအေပၚလႊမးမးမႈကလညးေဆြးေႏြးသြား မညျဖစသည။ အဘားမားအစးရအာဏာရရကတညးက အေရ႕ေတာငအာရအား ၎၏ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကဥးစားေပးအျဖစ အစးရ အေလးထားခၿပး “အေရ႕ေတာငအာရသ႔ ျပနလာျခငး”ဟေၾကညာကာ အာဆယႏငငမားႏင ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈမားတးျမႇင ၿပး“Lower Mekong Initiative”(LMI) ယႏယားအသစက အဆျပကာ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ ၎၏မ၀ါဒခနညႇျခငးက လညး ထညသြငးျပလပခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေမရကန၏ျပငလြယ၊ ေျပာငးလြယ ထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရးေပၚလစသည အေမရကန၏ ကမၻာလးဆငရာ မဟာဗဟာခနညႇမႈ၏ ေရာငလြမရႏငေသာ ရလဒတစချဖစကာ အေမရကန၏ အေရ႕ေတာင အာရသ႔ ျပနလာျခငးမဟာဗဟာ၏ ေရာငလြမရႏငေသာ ေရြးခယမႈတစရပေနႏငလညးျဖစသည။ အေသးစတ အျမငမၾကည လင ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေမရကန၏ ျပငလြယေျပာငးလြယျဖစေသာ ထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရးေပၚလကစသည ထေရာကေသာ ပတဆ႔မႈႏင အထးကနျဖစေစမႈ မ၀ါဒႏင ျမနမာ၏ျပညတြငးေရးႏင ျပငပအေျခအေနတ႔က ၎၏ဆးျဖတခကအေပၚ အေမရ ကနက ေရာငျပနဟပျခငးအေပၚတြင အေျခခခသည။ ၂၀၀၉ ခႏစကစ၍ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚအေမရကနမ၀ါဒသည ကာလ ၾကာရည အေရးယပတဆ႔ျခငးႏင အထးကနျဖစေစျခငးမ လကေတြ႕ကေသာ ႏစလမးသြားထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈသ႔ ေျပာငးလလာ ခၿပး သတမနထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈႏင အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈက တစခနတညးျပလပသည နညးလမးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငႏင ဆကဆေရးက တးတကရန ဆႏၵရေၾကာငးက အေမရကနက စဥဆကမျပတျပသခသည။ လကေတြ႕လညးကငသးခ သည။ ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစ ဒဇငဘာလ အေစာပငးတြင ဟလာရ၏ ျမနမာခရးစဥအတြငး LMI ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရးယႏယားတြင သတမနေရးရာ ေစာငၾကညေလလာသအျဖစပါ၀ငရန ျမနမာႏငငအား ဟလာရအား
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အထးတလညဖတၾကားခသည။ ဟလာရသည ျမနမာႏငငခရးစဥတြင အေမရကန-ျမနမာဆကဆေရး၏ စာမကႏာသစက ဖြငလစခၿပး ၎သည အေရ႕ ေတာငအာရသ႔ ျပနလာျခငး မဟာဗဟာ၏ အေရးႀကးေသာ အစတအပငးတစရပျဖစခသည။ ၂၀၁၂ခႏစ ႏ၀ငဘာလ ၁၉ ရကေန႔တြင ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ ပထမဆးအႀကမသြားေရာကလညပတသည အေမရကနသမၼတျဖစသ အဘားမားသည သမၼတဥး သနးစနႏင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညတ႔က ရနကနတြင ေတြ႕ဆကာ အေမရကနက ျမနမာႏငငအားဘ႑ာေရးအကအညေဒၚ လာသနး ၁၇၀ ေထာကပမညဟ ေၾကညာခသည။ အဘားမား၏ (၆)နာရၾကာ ျမနမာခရးစဥသည ႐ပျပထက လကေတြ႕ပက ခသည။ စစအစးရအပခပမႈအဆးသတသြားေၾကာငး အသအမတျပျခငးႏင အနာဂတအတြက အားေပးမႈအျဖစ ယဆရ သည။ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြင တ႐တ၏ လႊမးမးမႈတးပြားလာျခငးက ေလာခေနေသာ အေမရကန၏ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရသ႔ ျပနလာ ျခငး၏ မဟာဗဟာ မ႑ငအျဖစ ျမနမာႏငငက အေမရကနက လအပခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငက ကယျပနေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈက ျပလပခၿပး ႏငငတကာအလယတြင အထးကနဘ၀မ လြတေျမာကေအာငႀကးပမးသည အခြငအေရးက အဘာမားအစးရ မ ဆတကငရနႀကးပမးခၿပး ျမနမာႏငင၏ ကယေျပာေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင အာရပေႏြဥး၏ လႊမးမးမႈတ႔သည အေရ႕အာရတြင အာဏာရင အစးရမား ၿငမးခမးစြာ အသြငးေျပာငးေစျခငးျဖစေစမညဟ ေမာလငလကရသည။ ျပညသသနးေပါငး(၅၀)ေကာရေသာ အလားအလာေကာငးသည ေစးကြကႀကးႏင စးပြားေရးအခြငအလမးျဖစသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ ဖးပြငလာမႈက ဂပနက ႀကးစြာသတျပမခသည။ ဂပနအတြကမ ပစဖတသ႔ ဂပန၀ငေရာကႏငမည အေရ႕ေတာငအာရ ပငလယေရေၾကာငးလငးသည အသကေသြးေၾကာျဖစခသည။ ေရရည မဟာဗဟာအျမငမ ၾကညလင ျမနမာႏငင ၏ သတမန ေရး အေပၚဂပနက စးမးႏငရနၿပငဆငျခငးႏင ျမနမာႏငင၏ ေပါကြယ၀လေသာ သယဇာတမားအား တ႐တႏငယဥၿပငျခငးတ႔ သည ၎၏ အဏၰ၀ါေရေၾကာငးအသကေသြးေၾကာက ဆကလကထနးသမးရနမာ အလြနအေရးႀကးသည။ အေရ႕ေတာင အာရ အထးသျဖင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ၎၏ လႊမးမးမႈက ဆကလကထနးသမးရနႏင တ႐တလႊမးမးမႈ၏ၾကား၀ငလာမႈက ကာကြယ ရနအလငာ ဂပနအစးရသည ေတာငဘကသ႔ တ႐တၿခမးေျခာကေနသညဟေသာ သအရက ဆကလက ျဖန႔လကရသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငင သည အေၾကာကတရားမား တးပြားလာၿပး တစေန႔ေန႔ တစခနခနတြင ေတာငဘကသ႔ အငအားအသးျပ လာမညက စးရမလကရသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚဂပန၏ မ၀ါဒမားမာ ေအာကပါအတငးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာအစးရႏင အတကအခၾကား ဒငယာေလာ ေဖာေဆာငရနႏင တငးရငးသားလနညးစမား ျပနလညေပါငးစညးေရး အတြက ဘ႑ာေရးအေထာကအပက ငါးစာအျဖစ အသးျပျခငး၊ ျမနမာေစးကြကစးပြားေရးစနစသ႔ အသြငကးေျပာငးျခငးက ကညျခငး၊ အေမရကန-ဥေရာပႏငငမားႏင ညႇႏႈငးေဆာငရြကမႈကဆကလကလပေဆာငျခငး၊ ျမနမာႏငငတြင လ႔အခြငအ ေရးအေျခအေနေပၚအာ႐စကမႈအေပၚ အၿမမျပတေပးျခငးတ႔ျဖစသည။ ျမနမာျပညသမားတြင အစားအေသာကႏင အ၀တ အထညလေလာကသညအခနတြင ယငးတ႔သည စစအစးရအား ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈျပလပရန ေတာငးဆၿပး မမတ႔အား အာဏာပမလြေပးရန ေတာငးဆၾကမညျဖစသည။ ထအတငးသာ ျဖစလာခနတြင ျမနမာသည ဂပနေမာလငသ႔ ဒမကရက တစႏငငတစချဖစလာမညျဖစသည။ ဂပနသည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အျပသေဘာေဆာငေသာ ၾကား၀ငမႈမ၀ါဒက အၿမကင သးခၿပး ျမနမာႏငင၏ေစးကြကစးပြားေရးသ႔ သြားရာလမးက လမးညႊနရာတြင
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အလြနအေရးႀကးေသာ က႑တစရပမ ပါ၀ငခ သည။ ဂပနသည ဥေရာပႏငငမား၊ အေမရကနႏငငတ႔ႏင ခပလမးလမးေနခၿပး ျမနမာအစးရႏင အလြနနးကပေသာ ဆက ဆေရးရခကာ နညးနညးေပးမားမားယ မ၀ါဒက ကငသးသည တ႐တႏင ခပလမးလမးေနရနအၿမတမး နားခခသည။ ဂပနသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ဒမကေရစအသြငးကးေျပာငးေရး ျဖစစဥႏင စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ လမးေၾကာငးမားက သကေရာက မႈရေစရန စးပြားေရးႏင နညးပညာအကအညမားေပးျခငး၊ မ၀ါဒေရးရာႏင ဒငယာေလာမားအျပနအလနဖယလယျခငး၊ လ႔ စြမးအားရငးျမစဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးေဖာေဆာငျခငး၊ ကနသြယေရးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈႏင တက႐ကရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမား အစရသျဖင နညးလမးမားျဖင ႀကးပမးခသည။ အဘားမားအစးရ၏ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရသ႔ ျပနလာျခငးႏင ျပငလြယေျပာငးလြယထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရးအကးဆကေၾကာင ဂပနအစးရက အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြင တနဖးအေျချပသတမနေရးရာ စနစအပါအ၀င တ႐တက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ေရးအပစတြင ပါ၀ငေအာငႀကးပမးျခငးႏင အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြင သတမနေရးရာ တကခကမႈမားမၾကာမၾကာ ျပလပခသည။ စစအစးရ မ ေရြးေကာကခ အစးရတ႔အသြငကးေျပာငးေနေသာ ျမနမာႏင ဆကဆေရးက ဂပနက ေနာကထပဖြ႕ၿဖးလေသာေၾကာင ယခင ဂပနေခါငးေဆာငမား၏ ကတမားက အေကာငအထညေဖာျခငး၊ သဘာ၀ဓာတေငြ႕ႏင ရားပါးသတမားကသ႔ ေျမေအာက သယဇာတမား၏ ပးတြဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးက ေဖာေဆာငရနေစးကြကႏငေပါၾကြယ၀ေသာ လသားအရငးျမစမားက အာ႐စကျခငး စသညနညးလမးမားျဖင ႀကးပမးခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငႏင စးပြားေရး ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈတြင ဂပနသည ပၿပး တကၾကြသည အခနးက႑မ ပါ၀ငခၿပး ျမနမာအတြကဘ႑ာေရးအကအညမားအားေကာငးေစရန ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈသေဘာတညခကမား လကမတေရးထးျခငးႏင အေကာငအထညေဖာျခငးတ႔ျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏ လႊမးမးမႈက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ရနႏင စးပြားေရးဆကဆေရးတးျမႇငျခငးတ႔မ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ဒမကေရစတညေဆာကျခငးက အေထာကအကျပရန ႀကးပမးလကရ သည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ ပထ၀ႏငငေရး တညေနရာသည အလြနအေရးႀကးသညဟ အေမရကနႏင ဂပနႏစႏငငလးက ယဆၾက သည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည အေရ႕အာရ၊ ေတာငအာရ ႏင အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတ႔၏ဗဟတြင တညရေနသည။ အႏၵယသမဒၵရာသ႔ တ႐တ၏ ေတာငဘကထြကေပါကမတစဆင အသကသာဆး လမးေၾကာငးျဖစေသာေၾကာင အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔သည ျမနမာႏငငတြင ၎တ႔၏ လြမးမးမႈတ႔အတြက တ႐တႏင သဘာ၀အားျဖင ၿပငဆငၾကသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ ႏငငေရး အထကတနးလႊာမားကမ တ႐တႏင အႏၵယၾကားရ ျမနမာႏငင၏ မဟာဗဟာေျမာက တညေနရာသည ၎၏ ေပၚၾကြယ၀ေသာ သဘာ သယဇတထကပအေရးႀကးသညဟလညးယဆၾကသည။ တ႐တႏင ျမနမာႏငငအၾကား ဆကလကျဖစထြနးေနသာ ႏစႏငငဆက ဆေရးက ခနခြငလာညႇရန ျမနမာႏငငႏင မမတ႔ဆကဆေရးက ေနာကထပတးျမႇငေအာငေဆာငရြက ရနမာ မလြမေသြလအပ သညဟ အေမရကနႏင ဂပနႏစႏငငလးက သေဘာေပါကၾကသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚခမတထားသည ၎၏ အေရးယပတဆ႔ မႈမားက အျပညအ၀႐ပသမးရနမာ အေမရကနအတြကအခနမားစြာယရဥးမညျဖစသညတင ေနာကဆးတြင အေမရကန သည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ၎၏ လႊမးမးမႈမားတြငေနာကထပျမႇငတငေအာငေဆာငရြကလမမညျဖစသည။ အာရ ပစဖတေဒသ တစခလးကပငထသ႔ေဆာငရြကလမမညျဖစသည။ ထအခနတြင ဂပနသည ျမနမာႏငငႏင ၎၏ဆကဆေရးက တးျမႇငေန ခနတြင အေရ႕ေတာငအာရသ႔ျပနလာျခငးမဟာဗဟာက အေမရကနႏင အနးကပညႇႏႈငးေဆာငရြကေနသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာႏင ၎တ႔၏ ဆကဆေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈက စဥးစားခနတြင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ႏငငေရးႏငစးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားတး ျမႇငရနအလငာ ၎တ႔အၾကားနးကပေသာ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈႏင မ၀ါဒပငဆငရာညႇႏႈငးေဆာငရြကမႈမားက အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔က အႀကးအကယအာ႐စကၾကမညျဖစသည။ ဂပန၏သတမနေရးရာ အေျခခသည အေမရကန ဂပနမဟာမတျဖစေသာေၾကာင ၎၏အေရးႀကးေသာ သတမနေရးရာ လပေဆာငမႈမားတြင ဂပနက
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အေမရကနႏင နးနး ကပကပအၿမအျပနအလနေဆာငရြကလကရေနခေသာလညး ျမနမာႏငငသည ဂပနအတြက အဘယေၾကာငအေရးႀကးသည က အေမရကနက အျပညအ၀နားမလညႏငသညမာ ထငရားေနသည။ ဂပန-ျမနမာအထးဆကဆေရးႏင ျမနမာႏငငရ ဂပနအကး စးပြားမားက ဆကလကထနးထားႏငရန ဂပနသညစစအစးရကာလအတြငး ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚဖအားေပးျခငးသာမကနးကပေသာ ဆကဆေရးမားလညး ထားရခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚအေရးယပတဆ႔ေရးတြင ဂပနက အမားႏငျခားနားခၿပး ဂပန၏အခြငအေရးပဓာန၀ါဒႏင လကေတြ႕ ပဓာန၀ါဒကကငသးကာ အေမရကနႏငမတဘ မကႏာစာႏစရပျဖငဆကဆခ သည။ ဂပနအတြကမအေမရကန၏ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရသ႔ျပနလာျခငး၊ LMI ႏင အလငအျမနဖြ႕ၿဖးလာေသာ အေမရကန-ျမနမာ နးကပသည ဆကဆေရးအတြက လေလာကေသာ ျပငဆငမႈမျပလပခေပ။ ဂပန-အေမရကန မဟာမတ ျဖစျခငးက အား ေကာငးေအာင ျပလပျခငးျဖင တ႐တက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ရန ေမာလငခသည မတေသာ ထအေျခအေနေၾကာင ဂပနမာ ဇေ၀ ဇ၀ါျဖစသြားခရသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ၎၏ ေပၚလကစတြင ဂပနက ေဖာေဆာငမႈသည အေမရကန၏ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရ သ႔ျပနလာျခငး မဟာဗဟာထကအနညးငယနမပါးခသည။ အေမရကနေၾကာင ဂပန-ျမနမာ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈနယပယ သည အနညးငယေလာပါးသြားခသည။ မၾကာမႏစမားတြင ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေမရကနက ပမအာ႐စကလာေသာေၾကာင ဂပနသည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ ၎၏လႊမးမးမႏငပတသကၿပး စးရမမႈမားျဖစကာ ေဒသတြငး၌ ၎၏ ဥးေဆာငအေနအထား တညၿမေစရန ျမနမာႏငငႏငပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈမားတးျမႇငခသည။ အျခားတစဖကမ ၾကညလင အေမရကန၏အားေကာငး ေသာ ၾကား၀ငမႈသည အေရ႕ေတာငအာရအေပၚ ဂပန၏လႊမးမးမႈသည အားနညးသြားမညျဖစသည။ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရ တြင ဥးေဆာငေနရာက အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔အၿပငလၾကျခငးသည ၀ေရာဓတစရပျဖစသည။ တကၾကြေသာ ျပငလြယ ေျပာငးလြယ ထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈက ကငသးသည အေမရကနႏင အျပသေဘာေဆာငးေသာ ၾကား၀ငမႈက ကငသးသည ဂပနတ႔ႏစဥးစလးရညရြယခကမာ ျမနမာအေပၚ မမတ႔၏ လႊမးမးမႈက ခထြငရနျဖစၿပး ထရညရြယခကေၾကာင ယငးႏစႏငင ၾကားၿပငဆငမႈမားပမျဖစပြားလာမည။ မတညေသာ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကထညသြငးတြကခကမႈက ကငဆြထားေသာ အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔သည ယငးေဒသ၏ မဟာဗဟာ အကးစးပြားမာ မၾကားေသးမႏစမားအတြငး တစခႏင တစခတက လကရကာ အဆပါႏစႏငငၾကားၿပငဆငမႈႏင ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈမား ထပခါတစလလျဖစေပၚခသည။ အေမရကန ျပန လာျခငးႏင ဂပန၏ အေနအထားတးျမႇငျခငး ႏစခစလးမာ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ ၎တ႔၏ လႊမးမးမႈက တးျမႇငၿပး အထကစးရ ယရနျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငႏင ၎တ႔၏ ဆကဆေရးတးျမႇငရန အနးကပပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈသည ဆကလကလပေဆာငၾက မညျဖစကာ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ ၎တ႔၏ လႊမးမးမႈအတြက ၿပငဆငမႈက ေရာငလႊရမညမဟတေပ။ ထသ႔ ၀ေရာဓေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငင၏ သတမနေရးရာနယပယသည ပမကယျပနၿပး အေနာကေနာကႏငငမားႏငျမနမာႏငင၏ ဆကဆေရးလညး တးျမႇငလာမညျဖစ သည။ နဂးခပအျဖစ ျမနမာႏငငသည ပထ၀၀ငႏငငေရး နယျခားလၿခေရး စြမးအငဖလေရးတ႔တြင တ႐တအတြက အလြနအေရးႀကး သည ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏ ဘ႑ာေရး အကးစးပြားလညး မားစြာရေနသည။ မၾကာေသးမႏစမားအတြင ျမနမာႏငငသည မကႏာစာေပါငးစသတမနေရးႏင ပါ၀ါခနခြငရာညႇေရးက အေကာငအထညေဖာၿပး တ႐တႏင အႏၵယကသ႔ အမနးခငးႏငင မားႏင ဆကဆေရးကလညး တးျမႇငကာ အေမရကနအပါအ၀င အေနာကႏငငမားႏင ဂပနတ႔ႏငဆကဆေရးကလညး တးျမႇငေအာငအေကာငအထညေဖာခသည။ တ႐တကမ တညၿငမးၿပးၾကြယ၀လာေသာ ျမနမာႏငငတစရပက ျမငေတြ႕ရရန ေမာလငထားေသာေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငႏင ပတသကေသာ အခ႕ကစၥမားတြင ဘအကးစးပြားအခ႕ႏငအတ တ႐တ၊ ဂပန၊ အေမရကနတ႔ သတမနေရးအရ
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ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကရနအတြက ေနရာတစခရလာမညျဖစသည။အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔၏ မၾကာေသးမက လႈပရားမႈမားက ရငဆငရငး တ႐တသည သတႏင ရေနမညပေပၚသည။ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြင အဘားမားအစးရ၏ အေရ႕ေတာင အာရသ႔ ျပနလာျခငးႏင တကၾကြေသာ ျပငလြယေျပာငးလြယထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈႏင ဂပန၏ တနဖးအေျချပ သတမနေရးရာတ႔ႏင ျမနမာႏငငႏင နးကပေသာ စးပြားေရးဆငရာဆကဆေရးတ႔သည တ႐တက ရညရြယသညမာ ရငးလငးေနၿပး မဟာဗဟာမကႏာစာတြင တ႐တ၏ လႊမးမးမႈက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ရနစစဥျခငးျဖစသည။ ထ႔ အျပင အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔သည တ႐တက ၀နးရပတဆ႔ရန ႏငငေရး၊ သတမနေရး၊ စးပြားေရး၊ စစေရးႏင လမႈယဥေကး မႈဆငရာမားတြင အခ႕ေသာ ေဆာငရြကမႈမားရခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငႏငဆကဆေရးက အေမရကနႏင ဂပနတ႔ တးျမႇငေရးသည တ႐တက၀နးရပတဆ႔ရာတြင မေရာငသာေသာ က႑တစရပျဖစသလ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရတြင တ႐တ၏ မဟာဗဟာ အခငးအကငးက ၀ငေရာကၾကား၀ငျခငးမားျဖစသည။
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ဥေရာပသမဂၢႏင ျမနမာဖြ႔ၿဖးေရးအနာဂတ
The European Union and Future Development of Myanmar
Yang Baoyun School of International Studies, Peking University
သမငးဆငရာ ဖကတာမားႏင အမနတကယလအပခကမားေၾကာင အခ႕ေသာ ဥေရာပအငအားႀကး ႏငငမားတြင ျမနမာႏငငအားေနာကထပအာ႐စကမႈမားျပလာၾကသည။ ဥေရာပေပါငးစညးေရးျဖစစဥနက႐ႈငးလာျခငးႏငအတ ဥေရာပသမဂၢ (EU)သည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚEU မ၀ါဒ၏ အေျခချဖစသည တနဖးအေျချပသတမနေရးရာအေပၚ အာ႐စကကာ ျမနမာႏငငႏင ပတသကေသာ ပမညညႊတသည မ၀ါဒမားကလညး ကငသးၾကသည။ ျမနမာအစးရသစ၏ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင အတ EU ကလညး ယငး၏ မ၀ါဒက ခနညႇခသည။ တစခနတညးမာပင ျမနမာအစးရကလညး EUထမ အကအညႏင အေထာကအပ မား ဥေရာပ သမဂၢႏင ျမနမာႏငငၾကား ႏးညေပာေပာငးေသာ အျပနအလနဆကဆေရးက ကနဥးကပငထေထာငခၿပးျဖစကာ ယခ ဆကဆေရးသစသည ျမနမာဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအနာဂတတြင လႊမးမးမႈမားပမျဖစထြနးလာမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာစစအစးရအေပၚ EU မ၀ါဒ ျမနမာစစအစးရ သကတမးအတြငး လ႔အခြငအေရးႏင လြတလပခြငစေသာ ကစၥရပမားသည ျမနမာႏငငႏငဆကဆေရးတြင EU၏ အေရးႀကးဆးေသာ အစညးအတားမားျဖစခသည။ ဒမကေရစအေရး တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားသည ဖႏပသည ျမနမာအစးရက တ႔ျပနျခငးအျဖင ရနကနအေပၚ ပမျပငးထနေသာ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားကမတရာတြင EU အစးရမားက သေဘာတခၾကသည။ ယငးဆးျဖတခကတြင အစးရအဖြ႕၀ငမားသာမက ယငးတ႔ထမ အကးအျမတရရသမားအပါအ၀င လေပါငး၂၀၀ ေကာက ဗဇာထတေပးရန EU ကပတပငျခငးမား အထ ပါ၀ငခသည။ စစဗလခပမား ၀နႀကးမား၊ ခရးသြားလပငနးႏင ႏငငပငလပငနးတ႔တြင လပကငေနၾကသည လမားအပါအ၀င ပမေသာ လမားက ခမေစရန ျမနမာ ႏငငသားမား၏ ပငဆငမႈက EUက သမးဆညးထားျခငးလညးပါ၀ငသည။ လြနခေသာ ႏစေပါငးမားစြာက တငးျပညအေပၚ ဥးစားေပးကနသြယေရး အေလာေပးျခငးမားကလညး ရပတန႔ခသည။ တစခနတညးမာပင ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ လကနက ေရာငးချခငးက EUကပတပငခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ တနဖးအေျချပ သတမနေရးရာကငသး ေရးျဖစစဥတြင ႏငင၌လ႔အခြငအေရးးအေျခအေနမားက ေကနပႏစသကျခငးမရေၾကာငးေဖာျပရနအတြက ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားတစဖကတြင EU ကျပလပခၿပး အျခားတစ ဖကတြင အစးရမဟတေသာ အဖြ႕အစညးမားထေထာငျခငးႏင တညရေနေသာ ေဒသခ NGO မားက ရနကနတြငေထာကပ ျခငးအပါအ၀င လမးေၾကာငးမးစျဖင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ၎၏တနဖးမားက တးျမႇငခသည။ EU၏ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚမ၀ါဒသည ျမနမာစစအစးရအေပၚအလြနႀကးမားေသာ ဖအားမားျဖစေစခသည။ ယငးကာလတြင EUႏငျမနမာႏငငၾကားဆကဆေရးသည EU - အာဆယဆကဆမႈအေပၚတြင သကေရာကမႈႀကးႀကးမားမား ျဖစခ သည။ ၁၉၉၇ ခႏစတြင ျမနမာႏငငက
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အာဆယ၀ငခြငေလာကထားခၿပးေနာက အာရ-ဥေရာပ အစညးအေ၀းမား၏ အဖြ႕အစညး ဆငရာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးလပငနးစဥတြင အာဆယႏင ဥေရာပသမဂၢတ႔က ႏစဖကၾကားဆကဆေရးတြင ျမနမာအေရးသည အဓက ျပနာမားထမ တစရပျဖစလာခသည။ ထအခနမစ၍ အာဆယ-EU ႏစဖကၾကားေဒသဆငရာ ဒငယာေလာသည အားနညးသည ျဖစစဥတစရပျဖစသြားခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚEU မ၀ါဒခနည ႇမႈ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ေရြးေကာကပြမားကငးပၿပးကတညးက အစးရသစသည ႏငငေရးႏင လမႈေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားအလင အျမနစတငျပလပခၿပး တခါးဖြငေရးမ၀ါဒက ေဖာေဆာငခသည။ ဥေရာပသမဂၢက ေစာငၾကညခၿပး ျမနမာႏငငတြင ထငရားေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးျဖစစဥမားက အေထာကအပေပးခသည။ ဒမကေရစအားေကာငးေသာ လႊတေတာတစခ လြတလပစြာ ထတေဖာေရးေျပာဆခြငဆသ႔ဥးတညေသာဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏင အာဂတလကစားမႈတကဖကေရး အစးရ၏ အားထတမႈ မားကႀကဆခသလ ကနရေနေသာ ႏငငေရးအကဥးသားမားလႊတေပးေရး လပေဆာငမႈမားကလညး ႀကဆခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငႏင ၎၏ ဆကဆေရးတြင ေျဖရငးရမည သသာထငရားေသာ စနေခၚမႈမားရေနေသးသညက EU ကအသရေနခနတြင ႏငငေရးအေျခအေနမားက ထေထာငခသည။ ပထမအခကမာ ယခအခနအထ ရရၿပးေသာဒမကေရစ ေအာငျမငမႈမားက ခငမာရနႏင အျပညအ၀အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈဆသ႔ ေနာကထပဆကလကေလာကလမးရန ျဖစသည။ ဒတယအခကမာသး သပေရး ယႏယားတစခဖနတးျခငးႏင ၎၏လပငနးမားက အေစာတလငၿပးေျမာကေအာင ဆကလကေလာက လမးမႈက ေကနပေၾကာငးျပသစဥကနရေနေသာ ႏငငေရးအကဥးသားမားအားလးက အၾကြငးမလႊတေပးေရးျဖစသည။ တတယ အခကမာအထးသျဖငလနညးစအားလးအား အကာအကြယရေစရန ကလသမဂၢႏငပးေပါငး ေဆာငရြကမႈတးျမႇငေရး အပါအ၀င လ႔အခြငအေရးႏင တရားဥပေဒစးမးေရး အားေကာငးေစ ရနျဖစသည။ စတတအခကမာ လ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားၾကား အၾကမးဖကမႈမားက ကငတြယေျဖရငးရနျဖစသည။ ပဥၥမအခကမာအားလးပါ၀ငႏငေသာ နညးလမးတစခတြင ကာလၾကာ ရညကြျပားမႈမားက ေျဖရငးျခငးျဖင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ေရရညတညၿမေသာ ၿငမးခမးေရးရရေစရနျဖစသည။ အထးသျဖင ကခင ျပညနယတြင အၾကမးနညးျဖငကငတြယမႈအားလးက ရပတန႔ရန ေတာငးဆျခငးျဖစသည။ ဆ႒မအခကမာ ရခငျပညနယရ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးခရသအားလး ရငဆငေနရသည လသားခငးစာနာေထာကထားေရးဆငရာ အႏရာယမားက ေျဖရငးရန အေရး ေပၚေဆာငရြကမႈမားျပလပရနျဖစသည။ စးပြားေရးအေျခအေနမားကလညး ေအာကပါအတငး ခမတထားသည။ ပထမအခကမာ အားလးပါ၀ငၿပး ေရရညတညတ ေသာဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈကတးျမႇငရမညျဖစသလ အစးရ၏စမကနးမားအတငး ေထာငစႏစရညမနးခကမားေအာငျမငရန အပခပမႈ ေကာငးတးျမႇငရမညျဖစသည။ ဒတယအခကမာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားသည သာမာနျပညသမားအတြက စးပြားေရးအကး ျမတမားခစားႏငေစရနျဖစသည။ တတယအခကမာ ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ အကာအကြယေပး မႈ မားက တးျမႇငေနခနတြင တာ၀နယမႈရေသာ ကနသြယေရးႏင ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားေပၚထြနးလာေစရနျဖစသည။ ႏငငတကာဆကဆေရးတြငလညးေအာကပါမမားက ေလစားရမညျဖစသည။ လ႔အခြငအေရးေျမျမပမငးမား၊ လကနကမျပန႔ ပြားေရးႏင ထနးခပေရးအစရသညတ႔အပါအ၀င ႏငငတကာ သေဘာတညခကမားက လကနာေဆာငရြကျခငးျဖင ျမနမာႏင ငသည ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငး၏ တကၾကြေသာ၊ ေလးစားလကနာေသာအဖြ႕၀င ျဖစရမညျဖစသည။ ၎၏ျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ မ၀ါဒခနညႇျခငးႏငအတ EUသည ေနျပညေတာႏင
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ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကရနအသငျဖစေနသည။ EU သည ျမနမာႏငငႏင ၎၏ဆကဆေရးကတညၿမေသာ မဟာမတဖကအျဖစ တညေဆာကျခငးျဖင က႑သစတစရပဖြငလစ ရနႏင တစႏငငလးအတငအတာျဖင ပမနးကပေသာ ထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈမားျပလပရန ဆႏၵရေနသည။ EU မ၀ါဒမား အတြက ဥးစားေပးအရာမားႏငအတ ျပညစေသာမေဘာငတစခ အဆျပရနႏင ေဆြးေႏြးရန အဆငျမငကယစားလယ/ဒသမၼတက ဥေရာပေကာငစက ဖတေခၚထားသည။ လကရ ဟနခကညေရးအားထတမႈမားက ေလးစားမႈျပသေနခနတြင ျမနမာႏငငအတြက ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအကအညမား၏ ပးတြအစအစဥမား၊ ေႏာငေႏးၾကန႔ၾကာမႈမရဘ ဆကလကေဆာငရြကႏငရန အဖြ႕၀ငႏငငမားႏင EU အဖြ႕အစညးမားရ သကဆငေသာ အာဏာပငမားက တကတြနးထားၿပး ၂၀၁၅ ေရြးေကာကပြျပင ဆငရန လာမည သးႏစအတြက ျပလပဆျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက အေထာကအပေပးသည။ အထးသျဖင ျပညေထာငစလႊတေတာတြင သငေလာေသာ သကဆငသမားအားလးႏင လကတြေဆာငရြကမႈ ျပလပၿပး ျမနမာႏငင၌ ရတပဖြ႕၀ငေဆာငမႈမားျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးအကအညမားက ေပးရာတြင ျဖစႏငဖြယရာမားက ေလလာျခငးျဖစ သည။ ျမနမာလႊတေတာႏင ဆကဆေရးက အားေကာငးေစရန EUက စစဥသည။ မမအဖြ႕၀ငႏငငတစခ႕ မၾကာေသးမက ႀကေတြ႕ခရသည ႏငငေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈႏင ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငမႈအေတြ႕ အႀကမားက မေ၀ျခငးျဖင ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငျခငးႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးအတြက ျမနမာႏငငနင ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကရန EUက အဆငသငရေနသည ေနျပညေတာႏငပမန လ႔အခြငအေရး ဒငယာေလာမားတးျမႇငရနနညးလမးမား ရာေဖြလကရသည။ စးပြားေရးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရးအတြကမ EUသည အျခားအလရငမားႏင ညႇႏႈငးေဆာငရြကၿပး ျဖစႏငဖြယရာရေသာ ႏစ ဖကရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ သေဘာတညခကတစခက ရာေဖြကာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအေထာကအကမားကလညး ဆကလကတးျမႇငေပးသြား မညျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာ လကနကတငပ႔ေရာငးခမႈပတပငျခငးက ဆကလကထားရမညျဖစသည။ ျပလပခၿပးေသာ အေျပာငး အလမားႏင ဆကလကျပလပမညဟေမာလငထားသည အေျပာငးအလမားက တ႔ျပနျခငးအေနျဖင ဥေရာပေကာငစက ဆကလကခမတထားမည လကနကတငပ႔ေရာငးခမႈပတပငေရးမအပ ပတဆ႔အေရးယမႈအားလးက႐ပသမးရန ဆးျဖတခၿပး ျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးအေပၚ EU မ၀ါဒမား အေျပာငးအလျဖစေစခသည အဓက ဖကတာမားမာ ေအာကပါအတငးျဖစသည။ ပထမအခကမာ လမႈေရးႏင ႏငငေရးဆငရာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားေအာငျမငမႈႏင ျမနမာႏငင တြင ေနာကထပျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈတးျမႇငရန ျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ ၎၏မ၀ါဒက ခနညႇရန ျမနမာအစးရက ကမၻာကလကခ သညတခါးဖြငေရးမ၀ါဒတစခက ေဖာေဆာငၿပး EU ႏင မတဆကျခငးျဖစသည။ ဒတယအခကမာ အေရးယပတဆ႔ေရး မ၀ါဒ ၏ အခညးအႏးျဖစမႈက EUက သေဘာေပါကျခငးျဖစသည။ တကယတနးတြင ၁၄ႏစေကာၾကာ EU၏ အေရးယပတဆ႔ အတြက တခါးဖြငရန ျမနမာစစအာဏာရငအား ဖအားေပးရာတြင မျဖစစေလာကသာ ေအာငျမငမႈရခသည။ ဥပမာအားျဖင ၂၀၀၇ခႏစေႏာငးပငးကတညးက ျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ EU အထးသတမနအျဖစ ခန႔အပျခငးခရသည Piero Fassino သည ျမနမာႏငငအတြငးသ႔သြားေရာကခြငရရရန ကာလၾကာရည မတတႏငချခငးျဖစသည။ တတယအခကမာ စးပြားေရးအကး စးပြားေၾကာငျဖစသည။ ဥေရာပႏငငမား ေၾကြးၿမးအကပအတညးႏင စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအားနညးလာျခငးစသညတ႔ကသ႔ စန ေခၚမႈေပါငးမားစြာက EUကရငဆငေနရၿပး ၎၏စးပြားေရးအငအားမာကဆငးခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည EU၏ အေရးႀကး ေသာ ေစးကြကတစချဖစသည။ EU အဖြ႕၀ငႏငငမား၏ အခ႕ေသာ ကမၸဏႀကးမားသည ျမနမာႏငငက အနာဂတဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၏ အလားအလာမားက မပကေစာငၾကညေနၿပး ယငးေစးကြကမ အကးအျမတတစခရရရနေမာလငလကရသည။ သ႔ေသာ လညးျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ မ၀ါဒ ခနညႇအေပၚ
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ကြျပားေသာ အသတစခ႕လညးထြကေပၚလာခသည။ ဥပမာအေနျဖင လႈ႔ေဆာ ေရးႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးအပစမားေပါငးစညးထားသည ဥေရာပ ဘားမားကြနရကက ၂၀၁၃ခႏစ ဧၿပလ ၂၂ ရကေန႔တြင သးသပခကတစခမတငမ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚခမတထားသည ကနရေနေသးေသာ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမား ႐ပသမးျခငးက ဆငးငထားရန ဥေရာပ သမဂၢအားတကတြနးသည ပးတြေၾကညာခကတစရပထတျပနခသည။ (EU အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈေတြက အခနမတငမ ႐ပသမးေပးတာဟာ ျမနမာႏငငက ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးျဖစစဥက အေႏာငအယကျဖစမာက ကၽြႏေတာတ႔ စးရမ ပါတယ။ ၿပးေတာ ေနာကထပျပငးထနသည လ႔အခြငအေရးေဖာကဖကမႈေတြျဖစလာေအာင လပေပးသလျဖစႏငပါတယ)ဟ Burma Campaign UK ၏ ဒါ႐ကတာ Mark Farmanerက ၂၀၁၃ခႏစ မတလ ၂၆ရကေန႔တြင ထတျပနေသာ ေၾကညာခကတြင ေျပာၾကားခသည။ EU ႏငငျခားေရး၀နႀကးမားက ဥးသနးစနအေပၚယၾကညမႈေပးရန ဆးျဖတခၾကသည။ အရာအားလးက ေနာကတြင ခနထားချခငးအတြက အျခားသအခ႕ကလညးေ၀ဖနခၾကသည။ ျမနမာအစးရ၏ တ႔ျပနမႈ EU၏ မ၀ါဒသစအေပၚ ႀကဆေၾကာငးသေဘာထားက ျမနမာအစးရျပသရနျမနမာသမၼတဥးသနးစနသည EU သ႔အလည အပတခရးသြားေရာကခၿပး ဥေရာပခရးစဥမတငမ ကနရေနေသာ EU အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားက ႐ပသမးေပးရန ေတာငးဆခ သည။ “ကၽြနေတာတ႔မာ အရငးအႏးႏင ေခတမနညးပညာေတြမရပါဘး. . . .ဒါေတြအားလးဟာ ႏစႏစဆယၾကာ စးပြားေရး အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈေၾကာငျဖစရတာပါ”ဟ သကေထာကျပခသည။ EU၏ အကအညမားက ျမနမာႏငငက ေမာလငလကႀကးႀကးထားခေၾကာင ရငးရငးလငးလငးျပသခၿပျဖစသည။ အထးသျဖင အေရ႕ဘက ထငးနယျခားေဒသတစေလာက ကခင၊ ခငး၊ ရခငျပညနယတ႔တြင ျဖစပြားခေသာ ပဋပကၡမား၊ သဘာ၀ေဘးအႏရာယမား သ႔မဟတ တငးရငးသား ပဋပကၡမား၏ အကးဆကမားက ခစားရသည ထလြယခကလြယရ ေသာ ျပညသတစသနးေကာ အေျခခလသားခငးစာနာေထာကထားေရး လအပခကမားက ေျဖရငးရန ၂၀၁၂ခႏစတြင ဥေရာပေကာမရင ေပါင ၁၈.၅ သနးေပးခသည။ ကခငျပညနယသ႔ လသားခငးစာနာေထာကထားေရးဆငရာ အကအည ေပါင ၅သနး၊ ရခငျပညနယသ႔ ေပါင ၈သနးက ၂၀၁၂ခႏစတြင ECHOက ေပးခသည။ဥေရာပ အကအညမားေၾကာင ျမနမာအစးရ၏ ၀နထတ၀နပးမားတစစတစရာအတငးအတာထ သကသာရရခသည။ ႏငငေရးအကဥးသားမားလႊတေပးရန ေတာငးဆမႈမားက တ႔ျပနမႈအေနျဖင ဥေရာပသမဂၢက အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမား႐ပသမးေပးၿပး တစရကအၾကာတြင ႏငငေရးအကဥးသား အနညးဆး၅၉ဥးအပါအ၀င အကဥးသား ၉၃ဥးက ျမနမာသမၼတက လႊတ ၿငမးခမးသာခြငျပခသည။ “လႊတၿငမးခမးသာခြငအားလးနးပါက အၿမတမးပ ႏငငတကာျဖစရပေတြန႔ တကဆငေနတယ။ ဒေန႔လႊတၿငမးခမးသာခြငကလညး EU အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈေတြ တကဆငေနတယ”ဟ ၂၀၁၂ ခႏစတြငလြတေျမာကလာ သည ကကႀကးကေျပာသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚထားရသည EU မ၀ါဒအေပၚတြင ဥေရာပကမၸဏႀကးမား၏ အခနးက႑က ထညသြငးစဥးစားရမညျဖစကာ အနာဂတကာလတြင ယငးတ႔အေပၚေနျပညေတာအစးရက အာ႐စကမႈႀကးႀကးမားမားေပးထားလမမညျဖစသည။ ဥေရာပ လပငနးႀကးမားႏင ၎၏ဆကဆေရးက တးျမႇငသြားမညျဖစသည။ အထးသျဖင EU ထမ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားႏငအေထာက အပမားပမရရရန ႏငငစကမၸဏႀကးအခ႕ႏင ဆကစပ၍ျဖစသည။
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နဂး ျမနမာႏငင၏ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးႏင တခါးဖြငေရး ဆကလကလပေဆာငရနအစးရအား အားေပးႏငရန ျမနမာႏငငတြင တနဖးမားႏင စးပြားေရးအကအညမားၾကား ဆကစပမႈမားျဖင ပေဖာထားေသာ မ၀ါဒအသစက ဥေရာပသမဂၢက ေဖာေဆာင ခသည။ တစခနတညးမာပင ျမနမာျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ ေနာကျပနလညျခငးမ ကာကြယရနစးပြားေရး အကးစးပြားမားက အသးျပကာ EUက ႀကးပမးလကရသည။ ကနဥးကတညးကရခသည ဥေရာပသမဂၢႏင ျမနမာႏငငၾကားေပာေျပာငးေသာ အျပနအလနဆကဆေရး ျမနမာအစးရက ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးႏင တခါးဖြငေရးမ၀ါဒက ဆကလကအေကာငအထညေဖာေနသလ EUသည အေပါငးလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ တ႔ျပနမႈမားက ဆကလကျပလပလမမညဟ ေမာလငရသည။ ထသ႔ျပလပျခငးမာ ႏငငေရး လမႈေရး၊ စးပြားေရး၊ ယဥေကးမႈကသ႔ေသာ ကြျပားေသာနယပယမားတြင ႏစဖကဆကဆေရးခငၿမေစရနအတြက အျခားနညး လမးမားျဖင တညၿငမေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈမားက ဆကလကထနးသမးသြားလမမညျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာႏငငတ ြငလသားလၿခမႈအေျခအေန - အလြနဆးရြားေသာ အခကအခမား
Human Security in Myanmar: Critical Hurdles
Pavin Chachavalpongpun, PhD Associate Professor
Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University [email protected]‐u.ac.jp
လၿခေရး၏ ျပညတြငးသေဘာတရား အမးသားႏငငမား၏လၿခေရးအေပၚတြငအေလးထားျခငးေၾကာငလသားလၿခမႈဆသညသေဘာတရားႏငကငးကြာေနခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင“လၿခေရး”သေဘာတရားကခမတရာတြင အတေနာမတ ျဖငသာတစဖကသတခမတသည။ ျမနမာထပပငးေခါငးေဆာငမား၏ေျပာငးလေနေသာ အာဏာအ ကးစးပြားအရပေဖာချခငးႏင ျပနလညပေဖာချခငးတ႔ေၾကာငတစဖတသတျဖစခရျခငးျဖစသည။ State ႏင Nation အတတျဖစလာသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင Nation ၏ လၿခေရးသည အပခပသအစးရ၏ လၿခေရးႏင တညသည။ ထသေဘာတရားကအကတာဗဟျပ လၿခေရးပါရာဒငးျဖင Bredan Howe ႏင Suyoun တ႔ကရငးျပသည။အဆပါပါရာဒငးတြင ၿခေရးသညအလးစေသာအခပအျခာအာဏာ၏ မရမျဖစအေရးပါေသာ အစတပငး ျဖစၿပး အမးသားအကးစးပြား၏ အေျခအခအတျမစျဖစခသည။ အမးသားႏငငေတာ(Nation-State) ၏ လၿခေရးက ေလလာသးသပမႈ၏ ဗဟတြင ထားရသည။ ယငးအျမငအရ State က ျပညပႏင ျပညတြငးရနမားမ အမးသားအခပအျခာ အာဏာႏင နယေျမ ဆငရာဂဏသကၡာတ႔ကာကြယေပးရနလအပသညဟအျမယဆခၿပးတစခနတညးမာပင ယငး၏ အကးစးပြားမားအား ျခမးေျခာကမႈအားလးမ မမကယတငကာကြယရမညျဖစသည။ ျပငပအားျဖင စစသညေရာငလြရေကာငးေသာအရာမဟတ။ ျပညတြငးအေနျဖင ႏငငေရးတညၿငမမႈႏင လမႈေရး တညၿငမမႈတ႔သညမလြမေသြရရမညအရာမားျဖစၾကသည။ အမးသားႏငငေတာတစရပ (Nation State) က ကာကြယထနးသမးေစာငေရာကရာတြငစစတပက ပဓာနျပထားသညအခနးက႑တြင တာ၀နေပးထားသည လၿခမႈရေရးသည ဥးစားေပးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ျဖစရပတြငႏငငေတာဗဟျပလၿခေရးျဖစတညမႈအတြကတာ၀နရသည မားစြာေသာ အေၾကာငး တရားမားစြာရသည။ ၿဗတသ၏ကလနျပကငျခငးခခရသည ခါးသးေသာအတတမသည စစေအးေခတတစေလာကျပညတြငးစစ မၿပးဆးႏငေသာ တငးရငးသားအၾကြမႈမားေၾကာင လၿခေရး သေဘာတရား တြင ႏငငေတာကတငးျပညကာကြယေရးကစြမးေဆာငႏငသည အေရးႀကးဆးေသာ အငစတကးရငးအျဖစရေနေစခသည။အမးသားလၿခေရးကကာကြယရနစစအစးရကဆခၿပး အထကပါအေၾကာငး မားေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငတြင စစအပခပမႈ သကတမးရညခရျခငးျဖစသည။ သ႔တငယေန႔အခနအထ သတ႔ဘာက ကာကြယေနသနညးဆသညမာမရငးလငးေပ။ အေနာကတငးစတငေဆာၾသမႈ-ကယတငကာကြယျခငးလား ျမနမာႏငငႏင အေနာကတငးစတငေဆာၾသမႈတြငရသညလသားလၿခမႈၾကားဆကဆေရးက ရာေဖြေဖာ ထတရာတြငေမာငဇာနညကအသး၀ငေသာမေဘာငတစခက တညေဆာကျပခသည။ အေနာက တငးကလကခထားသညလၿခေရးသေဘာတရားသးရပရသညဟသကဆသည။ ယငးတ႔မာအမး
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သားလၿခေရး၊ကမၻာလးဆငရာလၿခေရးႏငလသားလၿခေရးတ႔ျဖစသည။ ယငးတ႔အနကပထမႏစမး မာအေနာကႏငငအစးရမား၏အကးစးပြားမားပါ၀ငပကသက ေနေသာေၾကာငယငးတ႔၏ အာ႐စကမႈ မားစြာရရခၿပး ေနာကဆးတစခမာမ ျမနမာႏငငတြင လ႔အခြငအေရးအသပညာမားတးျမႇငေရးလပ ေဆာငေနခန တြငပင မၾကာမၾကာလစလ႐ႈခရေလရ ခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရ လၿခေရးအေပၚ အေနာကတငးစတငေဆာၾသမႈ မာ အစးရ၏ ခႏငရညျပငပ အကးစးပြားမားႏင ကမၻာလးဆငရာလၿခေရး အေပၚသကေရာကမႈျဖစေစမညအစးရမးကသ႔ ေသာနညးလမးတ႔တြငသာ ႀကးမားမားအာ႐စက သည။ “တတယ-လသား-သ႔မဟတ ျပညသ-ဗဟျပ-လၿခေရး သေဘာတရားမားက အေနာကတငး မ၀ါဒခမတျခငးတြင ေ၀းကြာ ေသာ တတယအဆငသာျဖစေစသည။ စစေအးေခတၿပးဆးသြားခနတြင ျမနမာႏငငေရးအေျခအေနအေပၚ အေနာကတငးေဆာၾသမႈမ၀ါဒ သညလညး ေျပာငးသြားခသည။ ၁၉၈၈ ခႏစၾသဂတလတြင ဒမကေရစလလားသမားအား အၾကမး ဖကႏမနငးမႈႏငေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကည၏အမးသားဒမကေရစအဖြ႕ခပေအာငပြခခသည၁၉၉၀ ျပညႏစေရြးေကာကပြရလဒကျငငးပယျခငးတ႔ကျမနမာလ႔အခြငအေရးအေျခအေနအေပၚ အေနာက တငး၏ အေန အထားအေျပာငးအလတြင တစစတတစပငးလႊမးမးမႈရခသည။ ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစ ၾကညသည ဒမကေရစ ရရေရးႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးကာကြယေရးအတြက ဒမကေရစေခါငးေဆာငအ ျဖစ ထြကေပၚလာျခငးသည အေနာကတငး၏ ေဆာၾသေရးေပၚလစသစတြင ရညညႊနးစရာပြငတစခ အျဖစ ျပညျပည၀၀ အေထာက အကျဖစခသည။ သ႔ေသာ တကယအရတရားတြငမ အေနာကတငး သည အေရ႕အလယပငးႏင ေျမာကအာဖရကတ႔ရ မမတ႔၏ပငမအကးစးပြားကကာကြယထနးသမး ေစာငေရာကရန အႀကးအကယရငးႏး ျမႇပႏခသည။ မဟာဗဟာအားျဖင ယငးသ႔ေသာ မမတ႔၏ ႏငငေရးအရ သ႔မဟတ စးပြားေရးအရအကးစးပြားမားက ကာကြယျခငးအျဖစအေမရကနကအေရ႕ အလယပငးရစစပြမားအတြငးသ႔၀ငေရာကလသည။ ထစဥအခနတြငး ၂၀၀၅ ခႏစတြင ဗမာ/ျမနမာ အား အေမရကနျပညေထာငစက “အာဏာရငစနစ၏ေျခကပ” ဟ ရညညႊနးခသည။ ဒမကေရစ၏ ရနသေတာအျဖစ တဆပကပထားသည တင ျမနမာႏငငအား အေမရကနျပညေထာငစ၏ ပငမအကးစးပြားအျဖစမညသညအခါကမမတယခ ျခငးမရခေပ။ ယငး၏အေနအထားကျပနလညခနညႇမႈ၏အစတအပငးတစရပအျဖစဆးရြားမႈမားက ဆန႔ကငဆႏၵ ျပရနလစဘရယအေနာကတငးစတငေဆာၾသမႈကအေမရကနအစးရက အေကာငအထညေဖာခ သည။ ယငး လစဘရယအေနာကတငးစတငေဆာၾသမႈကလပရျခငး၏ ျဖစႏငဖြယရာအေၾကာငး အရငးမာ အနယနယ အရပရပတြင ၄ငး၏ပငမအကးစးပြားကရာေဖြျခငးလပင ျမနမာႏငငသည လစဘရယတနဖးမားက သြငးသြငးႏငစရာေနရာတစခဟ အေနာကတငးက ယဆေသာေၾကာင ျဖစသည။ အျခားတစနညးဆရလင ျမနမာေရးရာမ၀ါဒေဆြးေႏြးပြမားႏင မဒယာတ႔တြငလသားလ ၿခေရးေဆာၾသမႈ စးမးထားခသည အေၾကာငးအရငးမာ ျမနမာႏငငတြငအေနာကတငး၏ အျခားအ ကးစးပြားမားသည အလြနအေရးမပါေသာ ေၾကာငျဖစသည။ မကကယဘကခမးေျပာခေသာစကား မာ “ျမနမာသညအေမရကအတြကမဟာဗ ဟာအရအေရးမပါတာေၾကာငကစၥရပက အထကစးက ခဥးကပဖ႔အတြက “ဖရးကစ” မ၀ါဒကကငသးတာပါ။ ခဥးကပမႈဟာ ထေရာကသညျဖစေစ၊ မထ ေရာကသညျဖစေစ သတငးစာေခါငးႀကးပငးေကာငးေကာငးျဖစဖ႔န႔ အေမရကနျပညတြငး လအခြင အေရးလႈပရားသေတြရန ၿငမးသြားဖ႔ပါပ” ဟ ျဖစသည။ အေနာကတငးက ျမနမာအစးရအေပၚအေရး ယပတဆ႔မႈမားခမတၿပး ျမနမာႏငငႏငဆကဆေရးလမး ေၾကာငးမားက ပတပစရနလပေဆာငျခငး သည၄ငး၏ကမၻာလးဆငရာအကးစးပြားအားလးကသကေရာကမႈရမညမဟတေပ။ ေဒၚေအာငဆနး စၾကညကယတငကနဥးတြငေထာကခခသညအေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားသညတကယတမးတြင အေနာကတငး၏ ျမနမာေရးရာ မ၀ါဒျပယဂျဖစလာခ သည။ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငင တြငစစအပခပမႈကသကဆးရညေစခသလဆးရြားေသာလသားလၿခေရးအေျခအေနလညးျဖစ
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ေပၚေစခသည။ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားက တ႔ျပနေသာအားျဖငစစအစးရသညမမ၏ျပညသမားအား ဖႏပျခငးက ျပငးျပငးထနထနျပလပခၿပး ပ၍ပငဆးရြားလသည လသားမလၿခအေျခအေနတစရပ ကပင ျဖစထြနးေစခသည။ အေမရကန၏ ျမနမာေရးရာမ၀ါဒ အေျပာငးအေရႊ႕ ျမနမာႏငငတြငးေျပာငးလမႈမားျဖစလာသည အခနတြင အေမရကနသမၼတ ဘရကအဘားမား၏ တထြငဆနးသစေသာ အာရေရးရာမ၀ါဒ “အာရမ႑င” က စတငခနႏငတကဆငေနသည။ ထ႔အျပင ေဒသတြငး၌ ႏငငေရး အခငးအကငးသစကလညး တငးျပညအတြငး ဆးရြားေသာ လ႔အခြငအေရး အေျခအေနမားထက ျမနမာအစးရအေပၚ အေမရကန၏ ဥးတညခကမားက ျပနလညခနညႇ ေစခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ အေမရကန၏ သေဘတရားသစသည ယခအခါ လကေတြ႕ကေသာ သေဘာတရားျဖစၿပး အစးရႏငထေတြ႕ဆကဆရငး ရညၾကာေသာ တငးျပည၏ စးပြားေရးအခကအခ ႏစကာလမားလြနၿပးေနာက စးပြားေရးတခါးဖြငမႈအဆငေျပေစရန အေမရကန ထမ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈအမားအျပားျဖင ျမနမာႏငင၏ ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငေရးက အားေပး မညဟဆ သညသေဘာတရားပငျဖစသည။ ဥးသနးစနအစးရႏငထေတြ႕ဆကဆျခငးသညယေန႔ ကာလ ျမနမာႏငငနငဆကဆေရးတြင အေမရကန၏ အာရ မ႑ငမ၀ါဒ၏ ထတကနတစချဖစသည။ ျမနမာအတကအခမားႏင ျပညပေရာက ေခါငးေဆာငမားသည ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚထားရသည ယငး၏မ၀ါဒခငမာမႈက တရား၀ငျဖစေအာငလပ ေဆာငရမညျဖစသည။ အာဏာရငစနစ၏ေျခကပ အျဖစရခသည ပရပေဟာငးမခစၾကညရငးႏးေသာ စးပြားေရးမတဆက ပရပသစသ႔ ျပနလညပ ေဖာရန အဘားမားအစးရသည ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညႏငအတလကတြေဖာေဆာငေနသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ ပြငလငးလာေသာ ျဖစစဥမား က တ႔ျပနရာတြင စးပြားေရးလပငနးအတတကြလပ ေဆာငရန ပဓာနကသည ေနျပညေတာရ ေခါငး ေဆာငမားအတြက သကေသာငသကသာဇန တစခဖနတးရန ၀ါရငတနကႀကးပမးခၿပး တစခနတညးမာ ပင တ႐တ၏လႊမးမးမႈမကငးေ၀းရာသ႔ ျမနမာႏငငေရာကရရနလညး ႀကးပမးခသည။ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈ မား႐ပသမးျခငး၊ ျမနမာအထက တနးလႊာမားႏင ထေတြ႕ဆကဆျခငး၊ ျမနမာႏငငေရးျပနလညေပါငး စညးေရးက ပမအာ႐စကျခငး ႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးျမႇငတငျခငးတ႔သည ယခအခနတြင ျမနမာႏငငေရး အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈကႀကဆ ရနႏင ယငးသ႔ေသာလပငနးစဥမားတြင အေမရကန၏အကးစးပြားရရေစ ေရးတ႔အတြက ျပငဆင ထားသည မ၀ါဒသစ၏ အစတအပငမားပငျဖစသည။ ေလာေလာဆယအားျဖင ျမနမာဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငမႈအား အေမရကနအားေပးမႈႏင တငးျပည တြငယငး၏ လ႔အခြငအေရးကာကြယမႈအေနအထားမားသည အဘားမားအစးရ၏ ကင၀တဆငရာ ရပတညခကတစခက တတပပေဖာထတျပလကျခငးပငျဖစသည။သ႔ေသာအေမရကန၏ အဆငျမင ထားေသာ ျမနမာေရးရာမ၀ါဒသစ၏ တကယပေဖာမႈသည စစဘကအထကတနးလႊာအေဟာငးမား ထမၿခမးေျခာကမႈမားက သတထားေနရသည လၿခေရး-ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရး ဗဟျပျဖစခၿပး တစခနတညးမာပငအေမရကန၏ ကယပငအကးစးပြားမားအတြကအစးရသစႏငထေတြ႕ဆကဆ ရနလညးလအပေန သည။ Realpolitik ၏ အျမငအရ သ႔မဟတ ပၿပးသတမနေရးရာဆနသည စကားလးႏငဆရလငလကေတြ႕ပဓာန၀ါဒအရယငး၏ ခဥးကပမႈအသစအရဆလငအေနာကတငး က တကယတမးစးမးထား သညမာ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးမားႏင ဆကဆလပကငျခငးပငျဖစ သည။သ႔ေသာလညးလကေတြ႕ပဓာန၀ါဒသညအေနာကကမၻာအား လပခညးတညးလညးအေျခ အေနတစခႏငရငဆငရေစသည။ အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးျဖစစဥမ ထြကေပၚလာသည အခြငအလမး တစခခက ဆပကငရနမာလညး လကေတြ႕ပဓာန၀ါဒက ကငသးရနလအပသည။ အတတတနးက ကသ႔ပငအေနာကတငး၏ လၿခေရးဗဟျပအျမငသည လသားလၿခေရးကစၥရပမားက ကငတြယေရး
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တြငယငး၏ျပငးျပမႈမ ထငတငးမေပါကျဖစေနသည။ ျမနမာႏငငႏင ယငးတ႔ၾကားဆကဆေရးက ကငတြယရာတြငလကေတြ႕ပဓာနကကဆက လကရေရးသည အေရးႀကးသညဟအေနာကတငး ကေတြ႕ရထားသညယေန႔ကာလတြငလသားလၿခမႈ မရျခငးအေပၚ ေ၀ဖနစရာျဖစေနသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြငလသားလၿခေရးအားအစအလကအၿပလကထခကႏငေသာ အေျခအေနမားရေန ေသး သညမာ မနကနေနျခငးသည အေနာကတငး ကကငသးသည ခဥးကပမႈအသစ၏ မထေရာကမႈအား စမးသပမႈတစရပျဖစေနေလေတာသည။
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ျမနမာ ပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရး ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏင ေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ အလားအလာ
Development of Transport Connectivity in Myanmar and the Prospect for Regional
Cooperation
Lei Zhuning Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Yunnan Academy of Social
Sciences [email protected]
ျမနမာႏ င င သည အေရ႕ေတာငအာရ၊ ေတာငအာရႏင အေရ႕အာရတ႔၏ လမးဆလမးခြတြင ရသည။ ၄ငး၏ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကတညေနရာေၾကာင ျခားနားေနၿပး ကနးတြငးပတႏငင မားႏင ေပါငးကးေပးျခငးႏင ေဒသဆငရာ အတအကြျဖစမႈတ႔တြင အစားထးမရေသာ အခနး က႑တစချဖစေနသည။ထ႔ေၾကာငေဒသဆငရာပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရးသည ယငးက႑ တြငျမနမာႏ င င ၏တးတကမႈေပၚတြငႀကးစြာေသာအစတအပငးတစရပအျဖစ တညရေန သည။ အကန႔အသတရေသာ ဘ႑ာေရးရငးျမစမားႏင နညးပညာ စြမးေဆာငရညမားကသ႔မားစြာ ေသာ အခကအခမား ရငဆငခရေသာေၾကာင ျမနမာပ႔ေဆာငေရး အေျခခအေဆာကအအ မား တညေဆာက ေရးသည ၁၉၈၈ ခႏစကတညးက မားေသာအားျဖင ထငတငးမေပါကခ ေပ။ ျမနမာႏ င င ၏ သသာေသာအားသာခကမားကအျပညအ၀အသးျပရနႏင ေယဘယ အားျဖငျမနမာႏငေဒသတြငးအတြကစးပြားေရး အကးအျမတမားဓမၼဒဌာနကက ထတေဖာ ရနမာ ႏငငစေကာပေရးရငးမား နကနက႐ႈငး႐ႈငးပါ၀ငရနႏင ျမနမာႏ င င အေပၚဗဟျပထား ေသာေဒသဆငရာပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရး တးျမငေရးအတြက ခငမာေသာ အားထတမႈမား ျပလပရန မလြမေသြ လအပသည။ ျမန မာႏ င င တြင ပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရး တးတကမႈမား ျမနမာႏ င င သည ပ႔ေဆာငေရး အေျခခအေဆာကအအမားေဆာကလပေရးနယပယတြင ၁၉၈၈ ကတညးက မားစြာေသာ တးတကမႈမားက ေဆာငရြကခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး အကန႔အသတရေသာ ရငးျမစမားႏင စးပြားေရး ပတ ဆ႔မႈမား၏ အခပအေႏာငအဆး အတားမားေၾကာင ျပညတြငးပငးတြင ေဆာငရြကရမည လပငနးမားစြာရေနေသးၿပး ေဒသ ဆငရာ ပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရးတးျမငေရးအတြကမာလညး အကန႔ အသတရေနသည။ ၁. ပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရး အေျခအခအေဆာကအအ ေဆာကလပေရးတြင တးတကမႈ လမးေဆာကလပေရးတြင ၁၉၈၈ ကတညးက ႀကးမားေသာ ေအာငျမငမႈမားရရခသည။ ၁၉၉၈ မတငမ ျပညသ႔ေဆာကလပေရး၀နႀကးဌာနေအာကတြင လမးမငေပါငး ၁၃၆၃၅ မငသာရခသည။ ၂၀၁၁ တြင တစႏငငလး၌ လမးမငေပါငး ၂၄၀၀၀ ေကာအထ ျပညသ႔ ေဆာကလပေရးလပငနးက တးခ႕ခၿပးျဖစ သည။ ထးျခားေသာ အားထတမႈမာ ရနကန-မႏေလး အျမနလမးမႏင ပ႔ေဆာငေရးခ႕ငမႈေၾကာင အေရ႕ ျခမးထက
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ဖြ႔ၿဖးေရးတြင ေနာကကကနခရေသာ ဧရာ၀တျမစအေနာကဘကကမး တြင လမးေဆာက လပေရးမား ျဖစၾကသည။ မးရထားလမးဘကတြငလညး ျမနမာႏ င င သည ၿပးခသညဆယစႏစအတြငး ႀကးမားေသာ တးတကမႈမားရခ သည။ ၁၉၈၈ မတငမက ႏငငတြင မးရထားလမးမငေပါငး ၁၉၇၆ မငသာ ရခသည။15
16 ၁၉၄၈ မတငကတညး က ၁၉၂၄.၇၅ မငေဖာကလပထားခၿပးျဖစရာ ၁၉၄၈ ႏင ၁၉၈၈ အတြင မးရထားလမး ၅၁.၆ မငသာ ေဖာကလပချခငးျဖစသည။ ၁၉၈၈ မစကာ မးရထားလမးေဖာကလပေရးက အရျမငခသည။ ၂၀၁၁ ဧၿပ လအထ လကရ မရထားလမး စနစတြင ေနာကထပ မးရထားလမးမငေပါငး ၁၀၄၈.၉၅ မငထပမေဖာက လပခၿပး မးရထား လမးစစေပါငးအရညသည မငေပါငး ၃၀၀၀ ေကာသြားခသည။ ႏစစဥ မးရထားလမး မင ၂၅၀ ႏႈနးျဖင မရထားလမးစနစက တးခ႕ရန အစးရကစစဥေနသည။16
17 ျမနမာအစးရ၏ အျမငတြင လမႈ-စးပြားဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအေရးပါမႈအရ ရနကန-မႏေလး ရထားလမး သည ပထမ ျဖစၿပး မႏေလး- ျမစႀကးနား ရထားလမးက ဒတယလကကာ ရနကန-ေမာၿမင-ေရး ရထားလမးက တတယေနရာတြငရၿပး ရနကန-ျပညရထားလမးက စတတ ျဖစသည။17
18 ထကာလအေတာအတြငး ျမနမာႏ င င သည ၁၉၈၈ ခႏစမစကာေလေၾကာငးႏင ေရေၾကာငး ပ႔ေဆာငေရးနယပယမားတြငလညး ႀကးမားေသာတး တက မႈမားရရခေသာလညးေမာေတာ ကားလမးႏင မးရထားလမးေဆာကလပေရးတ႔တြငရရခေသာ ေအာငျမငမႈ မးေလာက မရခ ေပ။ ၂. ေမာေတာကားလမးႏင မးရထားလမးတညေဆာကေရးႏစခစလးတြင ေလလာေတြ႕ရခရေသာ အသြငတပစ ႏစရပ အထကတြငေဖာျပခသည ေအာငျမငမႈမားရခေသာျငားပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရး က႑ဘကစတး တကမႈမာ ေႏးေကြးေန ၿပးတငးျပညကအမနးခငးႏငငမားႏင ခတဆကရန အခနမားစြာယရဥး မညျဖစသည။ အာရအျမနလမးမမား၊ အာဆယ18
19 အေ၀းေျပးလမးမမားႏင GMS20 စးပြားေရးေကာရစဒါ စမကနး မား ကအစးရ၏ ဥးစားေပးအျဖစထားရသညဆေသာလညးတကယတမးတြငမ ေမာေတာကားလမး ေဆာကလပေရးမာျပညတြငးကသာအားျပေနၿပး ႏငငျပငပစမကနး မားတြငသာတးတကမႈအနညး ငယရခသည။ လတတေလာတြင ျမနမာႏ င င တြင အာရအျမနလမးမမား၏ သးပႏစပနးပါး မာအဆင III တြငရေနၿပးသးပတစပနးပါးမာအဆင III ေအာကတြငရေန သည။ အလားတပစမး ကရထားလမးေဆာကလပေရးတြငလညးေတြ႕ရႏငၿပး ျပညတြငးဘကကသာအေလးထား ေနကာ အမနးခငးႏငငမားႏင အခတအဆကျပတေနသည တတားတညေဆာကေရးမားတြင အနညး ငယေသာ တးတကမႈသာရခသည။ TAR21 ၏ အဓကအခတအဆကျပတေနေသာေနရာမားမာ လြနခ သည ဆယႏစက အတငးပင ရေနေသးသည။ အခြငအလမးမားႏင စနေခၚမႈမား
16 New Light of Myanmar, Oct. 30, 2010 p.1 17 New Light of Myanmar, June 5, 2011 p.1, p.8 18 New Light of Myanmar, March 15, 2011 p.8 19 ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations 20 GMS: Greater Mekong Sub‐region 21 TAR: Trans‐Asian Railway.
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ပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရးအေပၚ ေဒသဆငရာပေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ နကနက႐ႈငး႐ႈငးျဖစေပၚျခငးသည ျမနမာႏ င င ႏင အမနးခငး ႏငငမားအားမားစြာေသာအကးအျမတမားကရရေစမညျဖစသည။ ၁.ေစးကြကေပါကေရာကမႈႏင စးပြားေရးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ ေဒသတြငးပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယေရးတးတကလာျခငးသည ကယျပန႔လေသာေဒသတြငးေစး ကြကသ႔ ေဒသတြငး ႏငငမားသ႔ ေစးကြကပမလြယကစြာေပါကေရာကသြားေစမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏ င င ၏ အမနးခငးမားျဖစေသာတ႐တ၊ အႏၵယ၊ ဘဂၤလားေဒရႏင အျခားအာဆယႏငင မားသည စစေပါငးလဥးေရသနး ၃၀၀၀ ေကာရသည ႀကးမား ေသာ ေစးကြကတစချဖစသည။ တ႐တ-အာဆယလြတလပစြာကနသြယမႈနယေျမကထေထာငချခငးႏင ေပၚထြနးလာေတာမည အာဆယစးပြား ေရး အသကအ၀နးေၾကာင ေဒသတြငးေပါငးစညးမႈ အရနအဟနရလာေနသည။ GMS၊ SAARC22 ၊ BIMSTEC23 စသည ေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရး ယႏယားမားလညး တၿပငနကေပၚထြနးလာေနသည။ ရလဒတစခ အျဖစ ေဒသတြငး FDI24 ႏင နညးပညာလႊေျပာငးမႈ လညးတးပြားလာမညျဖစကာအလပအကငအခြငအလမးမား လညးပမျဖစထြနးလာမညျဖစသည။ ပ႔ကနဥးစားေပးလပအားအသးျပ စကမႈလပငနးမားတ႐တကမး႐းတနးမား တြငအရနေလာလာ ခနတြင ျမနမာႏ င င ၏ ယဥၿပငႏငစြမးရေသာအလပသမားစရတႏင တညေနရာအားသာခက မားကထညသြငးစဥးစားလင အာရ၏ အဓကကေသာထတလပေရးစငတာျဖစလာႏငသည။ ထ႔ျပငပ႔ေဆာင ဆကသြယေရးတးတကမႈသည ေဒသတြင ကနစညပ႔ေဆာငေရးႏင ကမၻာလည ခရးသြားလပငနးမား၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈက ႀကးႀကးမားမားတ႔ျမငႏငၿပး ၀နေဆာငမႈက႑တြင အလပအ ကငမားပမဖနတးေပးႏငမညျဖစသည။ ၂. ျမနမာႏ င င ကျဖတသနးမည ေဒသတြင လမးေၾကာငးမားရငဆငေနရသည စနေခၚမႈမားႏင အခကအခမား ဘ႑ာေငြေထာကပျခငးႏင နညးပညာပငးဆငရာအကန႔အသတအတားအဆးမားသည အသသာဆး အခက အခ ႏစခႏင ေဒသတြငးလမးေၾကာငးမားေဆာကလပေရးအတြက အဆးအတားျဖစေစမည ႀကေတြ႕ရေလရ သည ျပနာမားျဖစေနသည။ ထ႔ျပင လမးေၾကာငးအသးသးတြင သးျခားႀကေတြ႕ေန ရေသာ ျပနာမားရၾက သည။ သတမတႏႈနးထားမဟတဘမခန႔မနးႏငေသာကနစညလႊေျပာငးခ ေကာကခမႈမား၊ ႐ႈပေထြးေသာနယျခား ျဖတေကာ လပငနးစဥမားႏင ပ႔ေဆာငေရးအေျခခအေဆာကအ အမားညဖငးျခငးစသညတ႔သညGMS ပ႔ေဆာငေရးႏငကနစည ပ႔ေဆာငေဆာငေရးပးေပါငး ေဆာငရြကမႈ တြင အဓကေသာအဆးအတားမားအျဖစ ကးကားခရ ေလရသည အေၾကာငးတရားမား ျဖစၾကသည။ နယျခားေဒသမားတြငျပနာမားထေျပာလၿပးလၿခေရးျပနာမားမျမနမာႏငငတြငးႏင ျမနမာႏ င င တစ၀ကတြင ႀကးမားေသာစနေခၚမႈတစရပျဖစေနသည။ ထ႔ျပင ေဒသတြငး ခတဆကမႈ တးတကလာျခငး က ေဆာငကဥးလာေသာပ႔ေဆာငေရးအေဆာကအအမားတးတကလာျခငး ႏငအတ လကနကးျခငး၊ မးယစေမာငခ ေရာငး၀ယျခငးႏင ေတာ႐ငးတရစာၦနမားကာကြယေရးစသည ေဘးထြက ျပနာမားလညးရလာႏငသည။ ေရ႕သ႔ဆကေလာကရမည လမး ေဒသတြငးခတဆကမႈကတးျမငရန ေဒသတြငးသကဆငသမားက ႏငငစပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ ပမနက႐ႈငးရန ႏင
22 SAARC: South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation 23 BIMSTEC: Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi‐Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation 24 FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
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ပ႔ေဆာငေရးအေျခခအေဆာကအအမားတညေဆာကမႈတြင ျမနမာႏ င င ကကညမႈမားလပေဆာငရန မလြမေသြ လအပ သည။ ၁.ႏငငစ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ အားေကာငးေစရန ဒမကရကတစအစးရကမးသစၥာကနဆၿပးကတညးကေခတသစတြင ျမနမာႏ င င သည ကာလ ရညကငစြခေသာမမ၏ အစဥအလာျဖစသည ၾကားေနေရးက ျပနသြားေနၿပးသမေမြ႕ေသာ ပါ၀ါထနးည မႈက ဆကလကထနးသမးရနမာ ျမနမာႏ င င ၏ အေကာငးဆးအကးစးပြားအျဖစတြငရေနသည။ အျပတရငးမည ပထ၀ႏငငေရးတကပြအတြက စစေျမ ျပငတစရပ ျဖစလာမညအေရးႏင ကာလရည လကလြတခသည ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအတြက ေရႊအခြငအလမးတစရပက လကလြတမည အေရးကသတျဖငေရာင ေနစဥ ျပညတြငးေဆာကလပေရးရညရြယခကမားအတြက ႏငင တကာႏင ေဒသတြငးရငးျမစမားအား လးကအသးျပရန၊ ေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈက ျမငတငရန ပထ၀ အေနအထားအရ အားသာခက မားကအျပညအ၀အသးခရနမာ ျမနမာႏ င င အတြက အလြနတရာအေရးႀကးသည။ တ႐တအတြကမတညၿငမေသာ၊ ၾကြယ၀ေသာ၊ ပြငလငးေသာ ျမနမာႏငငတစရပျဖစရနမာတ႐တအကး စးပြား မားထတြင ရေနၿပးအထးသျဖင ကနးတြငးပတျဖစၿပးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈနမကေသာယငး၏ အေနာကေတာင ေဒသမား အတြက ျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာ-အေမရကန ဒငယာေလာ လမးေၾကာငးကတ႐တက လြနခသညႏစ အနညးငယကပထမဆးလမးေဖာကေပးချခငးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏ င င ၏အလားအလာရ ေသာစးပြားေရးအခြငအလမးမားကအျပညအ၀အေကာင အထညေပၚလာေစလၾကသညမာလညး ျမနမာႏ င င ၏ အျခားအမနးခငးႏငငမား၏ အကးစးပြားထ တြငပါ၀ငသည။ ျမနမာႏ င င ကဗဟျပထားသည ေဒသတြငးအခတအဆကတစခတးတကလာရနမာ ေဒသတြငး ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရး အတြက အလြနအေရးႀကးေသာအရာျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာႏ င င က ဗဟျပထားသည ေဒသတြငးႏငငစ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရး ယႏယားတစခထေထာငရနမာမလြမေသြ လအပသည။ ယႏယားကနဥးအဆငတြင ေဒသတြငးတြင သကဆငမႈအရဆးျဖစသည အထးသျဖင ျမနမာ၊ အႏၵယ၊ ဘဂၤလားေဒရ၊ ထငးႏင တ႐တတ႔ ပါ၀ငသငၿပးေရရညတြင အားလးပါ၀ငမႈရေသာ မကကငသးၿပးေဒသတြငးႏင ကမၻာလးဆငရာသကဆငသမား အားလးကလမးဖြငေပးထားသငသည။ အခ႕ေသာအားထတမႈမားကထအေၾကာငးျဖငပငျပလပခသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ေဖေဖာ၀ါရႏင မတလတ႔တြင ဘဂၤလားေဒရ ႏင ျမနမာႏ င င တ႔ကျဖတၿပးကးလကတားမ ကမငးသ႔ ေအာငျမငေသာကားေမာငးၿပငပြ တစခ၏ လမးေၾကာငးကလကၿပး BCIM25 Economic Corridor တစခကစတငရန အႏၵယႏင တ႐တတ႔က ၂၀၁၃ ေမလတြင အဆျပခသည။ ထစဥ အေမရကနကမဘဂၤလားေဒရႏင ျမနမာႏ င င တစေလာက India-Pacific Economic Corridor တစခကအေကာငအထည ေဖာမည အငဒယာတြင ေမာပါေနသည။ တ႐တက ေတာငကရးယား၏ ပးေပါငးမႈျဖင ျမနႏႈနးျမငရထားအတြက ရထားတြမား ထတလပရန စက႐တညေဆာကေရး ကစဥးစားေနဥ ဂပနက ျမနမာႏ င င အတြက ျမနႏႈနးျမငရထား မားတည ေဆာကေရးကစစဥေနသည။ အနာဂတတြင ေဒသတြငအခတအဆက ေနာကထပတးတကေစ ရနအလ႔ငာအေထာက အပမားပမေထာကပရန ပမခငမာ ေသာအားထတမႈမားလအပေနသည။
25 BCIM Regional Cooperation Forum တြင ဘဂၤလား ေဒ႐၊ တရတျပညသ႕သမၼတနငင(ယနန)၊ အနၵယ(အေရ႕ေျမာကေဒသႏင
အေနာကဘငေဂါျပညနယ)၊ ႏင ျမနမာႏငင တ႕ပါဝငျပး ေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈႏငယဥေကးမႈဖလယေရးမားကျမႇငတင၍
သကဆငရာေဒသတစခလးက ဒဏၵာရလာ သဝဏၰဘမ ေရႊေျမကသ႕ တးတကဖြ႕ျဖးေစရနရညရြယခကျဖင၁၉၉၉ခႏစတြင ကမငးျမ႕၌စတငခသည။
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၂. ေဒသတြငးခတဆကမႈတြင မာစတာစမကနးသစတစခလအပသည ေဒသတြငးခတဆကမႈ၏ အားလးလြမးၿခႏငေသာအေျခအေနတစရပကထညသြငးစဥးစားရနမလြမေသြ လအပၿပးလကရလမးေၾကာငးမား၊ စစဥထားေသာသ႔မဟတ အဆျပထားေသာလမးေၾကာငးမားအားလးက ထညသြငးတြကခကရနလအပသည။ ပ႔ေဆာငဆကသြယသြယေရးဆငရာေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ အတြက မာစတာစမကနးသစတစခတြင ရာေဖြေဖာထတထားသည အေရးႀကးဆးႏင စမးသပစမကနးမား အတငး ျပလပသငသည။ ၃.အကးခစားခြငႏင ကနကစရတမား ပမေကာငးမြနစြာခြေ၀ျခငးအတြက ယႏယားမားကထေထာငျခငး ျမနမာႏငငရပ႔ေဆာငေရးလမးေၾကာငးမားႏင စးပြားေရးစၾကၤနမားက ျမနမာ၀နးကငေဒသမားအတြက “club good” အျဖစမတယႏငသည။ ျမနမာႏ င င တြင ပ႔ေဆာငေရးအေျခအေနမားတးတကမႈသည ေဒသတြငးသကဆငသမားအားလအကးခစားခြငရရလမမည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင အကးခစားခြငႏင ကနက စရတမားခြေ၀ျခငး ယႏယားတစစကတညေထာင သငၿပးလပေဆာငမႈမားေဆာငရြကရာတြင လမႈေရးႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာဧရယာမားတြင မျမငႏငေသာစရတမားကကစားရန ေဆာငရြကသငသည။ ၄. ႐ပပငးဆငရာမဟတေသာအဆးအတားမားကေလာခၿပးႏင လပငနးေဆာငရြကႏငစြမးက ျမငတငရန GMS နယျခားျဖတေကာ ပ႔ေဆာငေရးသေဘာတညခက (CBTA) ၏ အေတြ႕အႀကမ ေလလာခကအရ အေကာကခြန ရငးလငးေရးလပငနးစဥမားေခာေမြ႕ရနႏငပ ေဒသတြင ပ႔ေဆာငအခနႏင စရတေလာခရန ျမနမာႏ င င ႏင ယငး၏အမနးခငးႏငငမားၾကားအလားတႏငငစသေဘာတညခကမးရရမညဟအၾကျပထားသည။ အဆပါလပငနးမားကအေကာငအထညေဖာျခငးျဖင အျပတအေတာကမရေသာေဒသတြငး ကနစညပ႔ေဆာငေရးကြနရကတစခကပင တညေထာငၿပးျဖစမညဟေမာလငထားၿပးေဒသတြငး အေျခခ အေဆာကအအအျပနအလန ခတဆကမႈ၏ အလားအလာမားလညးအျပညအ၀အေကာငအထညေပလာ မညျဖစသည။ ေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာင ရြကမႈ၏ အကးခစားခြငမားကေဒသရႏငငမားအားလးၾကား ေ၀မခစားႏငမညျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာႏငငေရးအသြငးေျပာငးျခငးႏင တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးဖြ႔ၿဖ းမႈအသစ
Myanmar’s Political Transformation and New Development of China‐ Myanmar Relations
Liu Xuecheng Senior Fellow
China Institute of International Studies [email protected]
တ႐တႏငျမနမာႏငငတ႔သည ခစၾကညရငးႏးေသာ အမနးခငးမားျဖစၾကသည။ နယျခားျဖတေကာတငးရငးသားလမးမား အတ ေနထငမႈႏငအတ ထငရားေသာ ေပါကေဖာ(ညရငးအက)မတဖကဆကဆေရးရခၾကသည။ ထႏစႏငငသည ႏငငအခငးခငး ဆကဆေရးတြင ကငသးလကနာရမည ကင၀တအျဖစ ၿငမးခမးစြာ အတယဥတြေနထငေရး မငါးရပက စတငေဆာငရြက ခ သည ပထမဆးေသာ အာရႏငငမားျဖစၾကသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည တ႐တတစႏငငတညးမ၀ါဒက လကနာၿပး တ႐တ၏အဓက အကးစးပြားမားက ေထာကခခသည။ တ႐တကလညး ျမနမာႏငင၏ ညညႊတမႈ အခပအျခာအာဏာႏင ပငနကနယေျမဆငရာ ဂဏသကၡာက ေထာကခခသည။ ကနးတြငးပတတ႐တတကပြမ အႏၵယသမဒၵရာသ႔ ဆကသြယသည မဟာဗဟာေျမာကစြမးအငႏင ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရး လမးေၾကာငးက ျမနမာႏငငႏင တ႐တတ႔ တညေဆာကခၾကသည။ ၎တ႔သည တ႐တ-ျမနမာ ဘဂၤလားေဒရႏင အႏၵယတ႔ အၾကားေလးႏငငစးပြားေရး မတဖကက အဆျပခရာတြင အဓကပါ၀ငပတသကသ ႏစဥးျဖစသည။ ယငးတ႔သညမဟာမေခါင ေဒသတြငး ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈႏင ျမစအတြငးသေဘၤာမားလၿခစတခစြာ သြားလာႏငေစမည မေခါငျမစေၾကာငးတစ ေလာက အစအစဥတကကးလြနသည ရာဇ၀တမႈမားက တားဆးရန ေလးႏငငပးေပါငးကငးလညျခငးတ႔၏ ပးေပါငးေဆာင ရြကေရး မတဖကမားျဖစၾကသည။ တ႐တသညျမနမာႏငင၏ အႀကးမားဆး ရငးႏးျမပႏသျဖစခၿပး ၂၀၁၀ျပညႏစတြင စစ ေပါငးရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ အေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၁၂.၃၂ ဘလယရခသည။ ၂၀၁၁ခႏစတြင ႏစႏငငၾကားကနသြယမႈသညအေမရကန ေဒၚလာ ၆.၅ ဘလယသ႔ေရာကရခၿပး တစႏစတာ တးတကမႈ ၄.၆ ရာခငႏႈနးရခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏တက႐က ဘ႑ာေရးမဟတေသာ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမာ အေမရကနေဒၚလာ သနး၄၆၀ ရခၿပး ၂၀၁၀ျပညႏစတြင ၄.၁၄ ရာခငႏႈနးတးတက ခကာတ႐တ သညထငးႏငင၏ေနာကတြင ျမနမာႏငင၏ဒတယအႀကးဆး ကနသြယဖကျဖစခသည။ အာဆယ-တ႐တလြတလပ စြာကနသြယေရးနယေျမ(CAFTA)က ၂၀၁၀ျပညႏစ ဇနန၀ါရလတြင အေကာငအထညေဖာခၿပးအာဆယ-၆ ႏင တ႐တ တ႔က သတမတထားေသာ ထတကနဟ၉၀%ေကာသည လြတလပစြာ ကနသြယခြငရခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငအပါအ၀င CLMV ႏငငမားသည ၂၀၁၅ခႏစ ဇနန၀ါရလတြင CFTA က အျပညအ၀အေကာငအထညေဖာလမမညျဖစသည။ ဆယစႏစမားႏငခေသာ စစအပခပမႈႏင သတမနေရးရာ အထးကနျဖစမႈမ ျမနမာႏငငျပနလညထြကလာျခငး၊ ႏငငေရးႏင စးပြား ေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားျပလပျခငးျဖင အေနာကကမၻာေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားက ပယဖကႏငျခငးႏင အမးသားျပနလညတည ေဆာကေရး၏ သတမနေရးရာ ေနရာက ရယႏငျခငးတ႔က တ႐တက ေတြ႕ျမငလသည။ အရပသားအစးရသစ၏လက ေအာကတ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးသည မမတ႔၏ အစဥအလာ ခစၾကညရငးႏးေသာ ဆကဆေရး၏စာမကႏာသစက ဖြငလစ ခၿပးျဖစသည။ သမၼတဥးသနးစနသည သမၼတရာထးရယၿပး မၾကာမ
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၂၀၁၁ ေမလတြင တ႐တသ႔ အလညအပတခရးသြား ေရာကခသည။ ျပညစေသာ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရး မတဖကထေထာငျခငးအေပၚ ပးတြေၾကညာခကက တ႐တႏင ျမနမာၾကားလကမတေရးထးခၾကသည။ တ႐တႏငငျခားေရး၀နႀကး Wang Yi သည ၂၀၁၃ခႏစဇလငလတြင ဘ႐ႏငးတြငကငးပသည အာဆယ ႏငငျခားေရး၀နႀကးမားအစညးအေ၀းႏင ဆကစပအစညးအေ၀းမား၏ ျပငပတြင ျမနမာႏငငျခားေရး၀နႀကး ဥး၀ဏၰေမာငလြငႏငအလြတသေဘာေတြ႕ဆခသည။ ၎တ႔၏ ႏစဖကဆကဆေရးက ေကာ ၾကားေသာ တ႐တစကားပႏစချဖစသည “လတစေယာကရ႕ႏလးသားက အခနကသကေသျပမာပါ”ႏင လအပခနမာ ရေန တာဟာ မတေဆြေကာငးပါဟေသာ စကားပက ကးကား၍ ေဖာျပခသည။ တ႐တသညျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ ခစၾကညရငးႏးေရး မ၀ါဒ ကအၿမတမးဆကလကကငစြကာ ၎တ႔၏ ထးတမးစဥလာႏငအည ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈလမးေၾကာငးက ျမနမာေလာကလမးႏငရန အေထာကအပျပကာ ယငးသ႔ေသာ အစဥအလာ ခစၾကညရငးႏးေသာ ဆကဆေရးက ပမအားေကာငးလာရမညျဖစၿပး အေျခအေနအသစေအာကတြင အားနညးသြားမညမဟတဟ ထပမေျပာၾကားခသည။ တ႐တႏငအစဥအလာခစၾကညရငး ႏး မႈက အေလးထားေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငျခားေရး၀နႀကး ဥး၀ဏၰေမာငလြငကေျပာၾကားခၿပး အဖးတနေသာ အေထာကအပမား အကအညမားက ကာလၾကာရညေပးချခငးအတြက တ႐တက ေကးဇးတငပါသညဟ ဆသည။ “ျမနမာႏငငဟာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလ ေရးႏငအသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလတစခတညးေရာကရေနတယဆေပမယ တ႐တႏငအမနးခငးေကာငးအျဖစႏင ခစၾကည ရငးႏးေသာ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈရသည ဆကဆေရးမားက ဘယေသာအခါမ ေျပာငးလမာမဟတပါ”ဟ ဥး၀ဏၰေမာငလြင က ထပမေျပာၾကားခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငေရးအသြငေျပာငးလျခငးက တ႐တက ေထာကချခငး ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစမတလတြင အရပသားအစးရသစတကလာၿပးကတညးက ျမနမာႏငငေရးအသြငးေျပာငးမႈသည အပငးႏစရပႏင ေတြ႕ႀကခရသည။ ပထမအပငးတြင ႏငငေရးအရ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈအျဖစေခၚဆႏငၿပး ယခေရာကရေနသည ဒတယအပငး မာ ႏငငေရးအရ ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငေရးအပငးျဖစသည။ ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငေရးအတြက လမးျပေျမပခႏစရပႏငအတ ၂၀၀၈ခႏစတြင ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒသစတစရပက အတညျပခၿပး အသက၀ငခသည။ ၂၀၁၀ျပညႏစ ႏ၀ငဘာတြင ေရြး ေကာကပြမားကငးပခၿပး ျမနမာႏငငတြငစစအစးရအပခပမႈ တရား၀ငအဆးသတခသည။ ၂၀၁၁ခႏစမတလတြင အရပ သားအစးရ ကမးသစၥာကနဆခသည။ စစအစးရ၏ ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငေရးလမးျပေျမပ ခႏစရပ၊ ၂၀၁၀ဒမကေရစေရြး ေကာကပြႏင အစးရသစက တ႐တက အငတကအားတကေထာကခခသည။ တ႐တတရား၀ငထတျပနခကမားႏင မဒယာ တ႔သည ျမနမာႏငငတြင ႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအေပၚ အေကာငးျမငမႈႏင ေထာကခသညအေနအထားတြင ရပတညၿပးတငျပခၾက သည။ အဆငေျပေခာမြတေသာ ေရြးေကာကပြမားေၾကာင ပမပြငလငးၿပး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈရေသာ လမးေၾကာငးတစရပသ႔ ေလာကလမးရန အစးရသစအား ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးက အားေပးအားေျမာကျပရန အခြငအလမးတစရပရရၿပးအမးသား ျပနလညေသြးစညးညညႊတေရးက ေဖာေဆာငရနအခြငအလမးလညးရရေစခသည။ ၂၀၁၁ခႏစ ၾသဂတလ ၁၉ ရကေန႔တြင သမၼတဥးသနးစနတ႔ ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညတ႔ေတြ႕ဆမႈသည အမးသားျပနလည ေသြးစညးညညႊတေရးဆသ႔ ပထမဆးေသာ ေျခလမးတစရပျဖစခသည။ မမတ႔အစးရသည ျပညပေရာကေနသမားအား မခင ႏငငသ႔ ျပနလာရန ခြငျပၿပး ၎တ႔၏ ျပစမႈမားက သကညာခြငေပးမညဟ သမၼတဥးသနးစနအား ၂၀၁၁ခႏစတြင ေၾကညာ ခသည။ ထအခါမစ၍ အစးရသစသည ႏငငေရးအကဥးသားအပါအ၀ငရာႏငခေသာ အကဥးသားမားက လႊတေပးခသည။ ႏငငအတြငး၌ တငၾကားလာေသာ ခးေဖာကမႈမားက စစမးစစေဆးရန ျမနမာအစးရက
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အမးသားလ႔အခြငအေရးေကာမရင ကဖြ႕စညးခၿပး အၿငမးစားျပညသ႔၀နထမး(၁၅)ဥးျဖင ဖြ႕စညးထားသည ေကာမရငသည ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒတြင ျပ႒ာနးထားသညအတငး ႏငငသားတ႔၏အေျခခအခြငအေရးမားက ကာကြယေစာငေရာကသြားလမမညျဖစသည။ အမးသား ဒမကေရစအဖြ႕ခပအပါအ၀င အတကအခပါတမား တရား၀င ႏငငေရးပါတသစ မတပတငခြငျပႏငရန ေရြးေကာကပြဥပေဒ ႏင ပါတမတပတငျခငးဥပေဒမားက ျပငဆငေပးခသည။ အစးရသစသည မဒယာအေပၚစစစေရးက ဖကသမးခၿပး ပဂၢလက သတငးစာမား၊ မဂၢဇငးမားႏင ႐ပသဌာနမား၊ ထတေ၀လညပတလပကငခၾကသည။ အစးရသည တငးရငးသားလကနက ကငအပစမားႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြမား စတငခၾကသည။ အဆပါအပစမားႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြမားျပလပရန အမးသားၿငမးခမးေရးေကာမတကလညး အစးရက ဖြ႕စညးခသည။ အစးရသစသည တငးရငးသားလကနကကငအဖြ႕(၁၁)ဖြ႕ႏင အပစအခတရပဆေရး သေဘာတညခကမား လကမတေရးထးခၿပးျဖစသည။ အပစအခတရပဆေရးအတြက KIA ႏငေဆြးေႏြးပြမားက ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးအကအညျဖင ျပလပေနဆျဖစသည။ ျမနမာစစတပႏငအခ႕ေသာ တငးရငးသားလကနကကငအဖြ႕မားအၾကား ပဋပကၡႏင ရငဆငတကခကမႈမားရေနသညတင အစးရသည မားစြာေသာ တငးရငးသားလကနကကငအဖြ႕မားႏင ေစစပညႇႏႈငးေရးျဖစစဥက စတငခၿပး အနညးဆး ယာယ အားျဖင နယျခားေစာင တပဖြ႕အစအစဥက ခေပးခသည။ ဒတယအပငးမာ ၂၀၁၅ ေရြးေကာကပြအတြကျပငဆငသညအပငးျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၅ ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညႏင ဥးေရႊမနးတ႔ က သမၼတျဖစလသညဟ ေၾကညာခၿပး တငးရငးသားပါတ၁၁ခကလညး ၂၀၁၅ ေရြးေကာကပြအတြက ဖယဒရယယနယ ပါတ အမညျဖင ႏငငေရးပါတတစရပထေထာငရန ဆးျဖတခၾကသည။ အဆပါ ႏငငေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအသစမားသည ႏငငေရးအရ ဒမ ကေရစေဖာေဆာငျခငး အေျခအေနတစရပျဖစလာေစခသည။ ေသာခကကေသာ ကစၥမာ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရး ျဖစသည။ သမၼတေနရာက ယဥၿပငရနအတြက ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညက အရညအခငးျပညမခလင ဖယဒရယအစးရ၊ ဖယဒရယစနစအတြငး ေဒသႏရ လနညးစႏႈင အာဏာပငမားအၾကား အာဏာႏငအကးစးပြားမား မညသ႔ခြေ၀မညဗဒၶဘာသာ ၀ငမားႏင မစလငဘာသာ၀ငမားအၾကား၊ အျခား လနညးစလအပစမားအၾကား ဂဏးဂဏဆနေသာ ပဋပကၡမားက မညသ႔ ကငတြယမညနညး။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ႏငငေရးအသြငးေျပာငးမႈမားမ ထြကေပၚလာေသာ အေတြးႏင ျပငပႏငငေရးအငအားစမားအၾကားကစားပြ မားက ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးမားက ေစာငၾကညလကရသည။ တ႐တ -ျမနမာဆကဆေရး ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအသစ အစးရသစဖြ႕စညးၿပးေနာကျမနမာသမၼတဥးသနးစနသည တ႐တႏငငသ႔သြားေရာကလညပတကာ တ႐တႏင ျမနမာၾကား ၿပးျပညစေသာ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကမတဖကထေထာငျခငး ပးတြေၾကညာခကက အစးရႏစရကက လကမတေရးထးခသည။ ၂၀၁၃ခႏစ ဇြနလတြင တ႐တႏငငျခားေရး၀နႀကး Yang Giechi ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ သြားေရာကလညပတၿပး သမၼတဥးသနးစနႏင ေတြ႕ဆခသည။ သ၏ခရးစဥအတြငး ၿပးျပညစေသာ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရး မတဖကသေဘာတညခက၏ လပငနးအေကာငအထညေဖာေရး သေဘာတညခကက ႏစဖကအစးရ လကမတေရးထးခၿပး အမနးခငးပသစြာျဖင ခစၾကညရငးႏးစြာ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရးျဖစစဥမားဆသ႔
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ခတကရနတြနးအားျဖစခသည။ ျမနမာႏငင တြင ဒမကေရစအေကာငအထညေဖာေရးျဖစစဥ၏ ႏငငေရးႏင လမႈေရး မးစကြျပားမႈ ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏငအတ ျပညသ႔သတမနေရးက အေလထားၿပး ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚ၎၏ မ၀ါဒအား တ႐တက ခနညႇခသည။ အခ႕ေသာ ပထ၀ မဟာဗဟာကၽြမးကငသမား၊ လၿခေရးကၽြမးကငသမားႏင မ၀ါဒေလလာသးသပသမားက အဆပါသခငးတမနခငးသည တ႐တက ျမနမာက ကလနျပရနအားထတျခငး(သ႔မဟတ)အျခားအမနးခငးမားက ၀ငးျခငး (သ႔မဟတ) အႏၵယသမဒၵရာက စးမးရန ႀကးပမးမႈတစရပျဖင ပဖကၾကသည။ လတတေလာ ရငသနတကၾကြေနသည တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးက တ႐တ လမးတစေယာက၏အျမငျဖင ကၽြနေတာရငးျပလပါသည။ တ႐တ၏ ခဥးကပမႈသည အျခားသမား၏ ခဥးကပမႈႏင ကြျပား ေကာငးကြျပားမညျဖစေသာလညး ၄ငး၏ေယဘယပနးတငမားမာ ဆငတသည။ တ႐တက ႀကးပမးေဖာေဆာငသည ပနးတငမားမာ တ႐တက လပႏငစြမးရေသာ သအမတ Yang Houlan အား ျမနမာသအမတအျဖစႏငလညးေကာငး၊ အေတြ႕အႀကရေသာ ထပတနးသတမန Wang Yingfan က အာရေရးရာ အထးသတမနအျဖစလညး ခန႔အပချခငးမာ တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရး ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးႏငအတ ပထမဆးအႀကမအာ႐စးစကလာျခငးျဖစသည။ တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငအား အမနးခငးေကာငး၊ ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရးမတဖကႏင ရငးႏးေသာမတေဆြအျဖစ ျမငထားခ သည။ ျမနမာႏငငအား အႏၵယသမဒၵရာသ႔ ကနးလမးျဖငေပါကေရာကႏငသညေနရာႏင မလကာေရလကၾကားက တ႐တ ျဖတသနးႏငမညေနရာအျဖစ ပထ၀မဟာဗဟာ႐ႈေထာငမ ျမငထားခသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ အမးသားျပညလညေသြးစညးညညြတေရးႏင ျပညတြငးညညြတမႈက အတကအခမားျဖင အျပသေဘာေဆာင ေသာ ဒငယာေလာမားျဖငလညးေကာငး၊ တငးရငးသားလကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးသေဘာတညခက ေစစပညႇ ႏႈငးျခငးျဖငလညးေကာင အေထာကအပျပခသည။ တ႐တသည အႀကးဆး ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသျဖစခၿပး လမးပမးဆကသြယေရး စမကနးမားျဖင အေျခခအေဆာကအအမားတးတကေအာင ေဆာငရြကခသည။ တ႐တအစးရႏင တ႐တကမၸဏမားသည မမတ႔၏ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈႏငဆကႏြယေနေသာ လမႈတာ၀န၀တရားမားႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငကစၥရပမားက အေလးထားခ သည။ တ႐တသည ၂၀၁၄-၂၀၁၅ တြင ျမနမာႏငင အာဆယဥကဌျဖစေရးအတြက ေထာကခခၿပး ေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ ပါ၀ငရန အထးသျဖင အာဆယအသကအ၀နးတညေဆာကေရးတြင ပါ၀ငျခငးအတြက ေထာကခခသည။ မမတ႔၏ ႏစႏငင ဆကဆေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတြင အခပအျခာအာဏာညမမႈ၊ ညမေသာအေျခခေပၚတြင ရငးႏးစြာတငပငေဆြးေႏြးမႈ၊ ႏစဖကအကး အျမတႏင ႏစဖကစလးအသာရမည ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေရးမမားက တ႐တက ကငစြခသည။ တ႐တသည အတကအခႏငငေရးပါတမား၊ လမႈေရးအဖြ႕မားႏင ထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရးက အားေကာငးေအာငေဆာငရြကခ သလ အစးရခငးတရား၀ငဆကဆေရးကလညး ခငမာေအာငတညေဆာကခသည။ တ႐တအစးရသည အာဏာရ ၾက႕ခငဖြ႕ ၿဖးေရးပါတကယစားလယမားက ဖတေခၚခသည။ NLD ကယစားလယမားႏင ဥးေဆာငလနညးစတငးရငးသားပါတမား သ႔မဟတ အဖြ႕မားကလညး တ႐တကဖတေခၚခကာ ျပညသခငးဆကဆေရးအားေကာငးေစရနႏင လမႈေရးအေျချပ တ႐တ-ျမနမာ ခစၾကညေရးႏင ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈမားကလညး ခငမာေအာင ေဆာငရြကခသည။
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နဂး သမၼတဥးသနးစနႏင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညတ႔ၾကား အေပါငးလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ အျပနအလနဆကဆေရးျဖင သသသာ သာ ျဖစထြနးလာေသာ ျဖစစဥတစရပအျဖစ တစႏငငလးသည ႏငငေရးႏင စးပြားေရးလစဘရယလကေဇးရငး ဧဂငဒါတစခ သ႔ ေရႊ႕သြားၾကသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး အစးရသစသည စနေခၚမႈေပါငးမားစြာက ရငဆငေနရၿပး ယငးတ႔သည ျပငးထနကာ အျမစတြယေနသည ေရရညျပနာမားျဖစသည။ ယငးႏငငေရးျဖစစဥသည ႏငငေရးျပနလညေပါငးစညးမႈ၊ လမႈေရးတည ၿငမမႈႏင စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈမားက ျဖစေပၚေစလမမညဟ ျမနမာျပညသမားက ေမာလငၾကသည။ အရပသားအစးရလကထက ႏင ၿငမးခမးေရးသေဘာတညခကအသစေစစပေဆြးေႏြးၿပး ၿငမးခမးေရးက ရရႏငမညဟ တငးရငးသားလနညးစမားက ေမာ လငၾကသည။ ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒသည တငးရငးသားမား ကယပငဆးျဖတခြငအတြက အပစအခတရပစေရးအဖြ႕ မား၏ ေတာငးဆခကအမားစက ဖယထတထားသည။ ႏငငေတာအဆငအပခပေရးအသစတြင ဗဟခပကငမႈမရေသာ အာဏာပငျဖစသငသည။ အထးသျဖင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးႏင လမႈဖလေရးနယပယတြငျဖစသည။ အပစအခတရပစထားသည အဖြ႕ မား၏ ကၾကမၼာသည အစးသစအေပၚတည မတညေနသည။ ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးက ျမနမာႏငငတညၿငမးေရးတြင အထးစတ၀ငတစားရၾကသည။
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တ႐တ-ျမနမာ ဆကဆေရး (၂၀၁၁-၂၀၁၃)- ျမနမာႏ င င တြငတ႐တပရပက ျမငတငေရး
China‐Myanmar Relations (2011‐2013): Promoting China’s Image in Myanmar
Aung Aung Independent Researcher [email protected]
ျမနမာႏငငတြင မၾကာေသးမက စတငေဖာေဆာငခသည ဒမကေရစအသြငကးေျပာငးေရးႏင အတ ျမနမာလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးသည ဒမကေရစ၊ လ႔အခြငအေရး၊ လြတလပမႈႏင ေကာငးမြနေသာ အပခပမႈအစရသည အေနာကတငး တနဖးစနစမားက မားစြာလႊမးမးထားခသည။ အရပ ဘကလမႈအဖြ႕အစညးမားက အားေပးရနႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးစဒမကေရစအသြငကးေျပာငးေရးျဖစစဥ မားက အားေကာငးေစရန ျမနမာႏငငတြငးသ႔ ႏငငတကာ အစးရမဟတေသာ အဖြ႕အစညး (INGO) မား ပမလာေရာကလကရသည။ ယခအေျခအေနရအဆလင ပမတကၾကြလာေသာ ျမနမာအရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားတြင လ႔အခြငအေရးအေၾကာငး မေျပာလင ရငသနႏင မညမဟတေပ။ လတတေလာအားျဖင တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးအပါအ၀င ျမနမာႏငငႏငႏငငတကာ ဆကဆ ေရးက ျမနမာသတငးဂာနယမား တြင ကယကယ ျပန႔ျပန႔ေဆြးေႏြးလကရသည။ မားစြာ ေသာ စာေရးဆရာမားသည တ႐တႏင ျမနမာၾကားဆကဆေရးက ႐ႈေထာငအမးမးမ ေရး သားၾကသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည အေမရကနႏငနးကပသငသညဟ အခ႕ကေရးၾကသည။ ဥေရာပ သမဂၢႏင နးကပသငသညဟ အခ႕က ေရးၾကသည။ အခ႕ကမ ျမနမာႏငငသည အမနးခငးက ေရြးခယ၍ မရႏငသျဖင တ႐တႏငဆကဆေရးက ထနးထားသငသညဟ အခ႕ကေရးၾက သည။ မညသ႔ပငဆေစကာမ ျမနမာ၏ အနာဂတတြင တ႐တသည အေရးႀကးသညဟ ႏငင ေရးႏငသကဆငသအားလးအသအမတျပၾကေၾကာငး ေယဘယေကာကခကတစခ ေ၀ဖနသ မားၾကားရေနသည။ တ႐တသည စစအစးရကေထာကခခၿပး ဖႏပမႈေအာကတြငေနခရသည ျပညသမား၏ အသကလစလျပခသျဖင ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏လကရပရပသည ဆးဆး ရြား ရြား ပကစးေနသညဟ ကၽြမးကငသအမားစကလညးသေဘာတၾကသည။ ဒမကေရစ၊ လ႔အခြငအေရးႏင ေကာငးမြနေသာအပခပမႈက လစလ႐ႈၿပး စစတပယႏယားက တ႐တက အေထာကအပျပချခငးျဖင ခကခေသာ ကာလမားတြင တ႐တသညျမနမာႏငငက အျမတထတခသညဟ ျမနမာျပညသမားက ခစားၾကသည။ ထသ႔ ျပလပချခငးေၾကာငး တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ သဘာ၀သယဇာတမားက ေစးေပါေပါျဖင ၀ယယခၾကသည။ ရလဒအားျဖင ျမနမာႏငငသည ပဆငးရလာကာ အရာရာတငးတြင တ႐တအေပၚ ပ၍ ပ၍ မခခရသည။ ယခစာတမးတြင ျမနမာျပညသမားအၾကား မမ၏ပရပက တ႐တမည သ႔တးျမငႏငေၾကာငး ေဆြးေႏြးသြားမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငက နားလညရနႏင မဟာဗဟာေျမာက ျပညသ႔ဆကဆေရး သတမနေရးရာက ကင သးရန တ႐တအတြက အေရးႀကးသည။ ထသ႔ျပလပရာတြင ျမနမာႏငငရ တ႐တသ႐း၏ အခနးက႑သည ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏ ပရပကျပေသာ သရးတစခအျဖစေဆာငရြကရန အေရးႀကးသည။ ယခစာတမးမေရးသားမတြင ကၽြနေတာသည ရနကနရ Peace, Democracy & Development (MDRI-CSIS) အတနး၏ ေကာငးသား ၂၀ ခန႔ႏငေတြ႕ဆခ ၿပး အငားယာဥေမာငးမားႏင အခ႔သမားကလညး လမးေပၚတြင ေတြ႕ဆခသည။ ရရခေသာ သတငးအခကအလကမားက အေျခခၿပး ေဆြးေႏြးတငျပမႈတြင ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တ၏ ပ ရပတးျမငရန တ႐တအတြက အၾကျပခကမားထညသြငးေဆြးေႏြးသြားမညျဖစသည။
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အတတကာတတြင တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငေရးတြင အဓကသကဆငသသည အစးရသာျဖစ သညဟ မတယၿပး ျမနမာအစးရႏငအလပလပခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ယေန႔ျမနမာႏငငတြင အေျပာငးအလမားျဖစေပၚေနၿပး အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမား၊ ႏငငေရးပါတမားႏင မဒ ယာမားကသ႔ေသာ တစခထကပသည သကဆငသမားရလာၿပျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင စြမး အားႀကးမားေသာ ျပညသ႔သတမနေရးရာက အေကာငအထညေဖာႏငရန တ႐တသည ရနကနရ တ႐တသ႐းတြင ထေရာကေသာ ျပညသ႔ဆကဆေရးဌာနတစခ ထေထာငသင သည။ အခနႏငတစေျပးည သတငးအခကအလကမားရရနႏင အေျပာငးအလမားႏငအည ေဆာငရြကႏငရန ဌာနတြင ျပညတြငး ႏငငေရးအရာရမားႏင မဒယာအရာရမားက ငားရမး သငသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရ အေမရကနသ႐း၊ ၿဗတသသ႐းႏင ဂပနသ႐းမားတ႔လမဟတဘ ျမနမာႏငငတြငလပကငေဆာငရြကေနၾကသမားမာ တ႐တသ႐းႏငပကသကၿပး သတငးအခက အလကအနညးငယသာရရၾကသည။ ယဥေကးမႈဖလယေရး အစအစဥမားက (ကြနျဖးရပ စငတာ ကသ႔) ေဆာငရြကရန တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တစငတာမား ထေထာင သငသည။ ရနကနတြင အေမရကနစငတာႏင ၿဗတသေကာငစတ႔သည အဂၤလပစာႏင အေနာကတငးယဥေကးမႈက သငယလသည လငယမားအၾကား အလြနေရပနးစားေသာ လညး တ႐တသ႐းသ႔မ တ႐တယဥေကးမႈေလလာရန မညသမ သြားေရာကျခငးမရၾကေပ။ တ႐တ အေပၚ ျမနမာျပညသမား ပမသတျပမလာေစရန တ႐တသည မမ၏ ေအာငျမငမႈမားက ျမန မာရ ပဂၢလက မဒယာမားမတစဆင ေၾကာျငာသငသည။ တ႐တစမကနးနယပယတြငလညး ေရရညဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးစမကနးမားတြင ေဒသချပညသမား အတြက ထညသြငးစဥးစားသငသည။ ထလပငနးမားက ျပညတြငး NGO မားမေသာလညး ေကာငး၊ NGO အသစတစခထေထာင၍ေသာလညးေကာငး တ႐တ၏ တနဖးမားႏင အကး စးပြားမားက အေကာငအထညေဖာရန တ႐တက ေဆာငရြကႏငသည။ တ႐တစမကနးမား တြင ၄ငးတ႔၏ကယပငလပသားမားကသာ ေခၚယအသးျပသျဖင ျမနမာ အလပအငအားစ မားအတြက အလပအကငေနရာမားလေလာကစြာဖနတးမေပးႏငသျဖင ျမနမာႏငငရ တ႐တစမကနးမားသည ေ၀ဖနမႈမားႏငရငဆငေနရသည။ ထပပငးေနရာအမားစတြငလညး တ႐တစကားေျပာသမားသာ ရယထားသျဖင တ႐တစမကနးမားသည တ႐တအတြကသာ ျဖစခသည။ တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငရ ထခကလြယေသာ ျပညသမားက အေထာကအပျပ ရန ေဆးအဖြ႕မားႏင အျခားလသားခငးစာနာေထာကထားေရးဆငရာ အဖြ႕မားကလညး ေစလႊတသငသည။ ေဒသချပညသမားႏင နးနးကပကပေတြ႕ဆျခငးသည ျမနမာလမးမား ၏ စတႏင ၀ဥာဥက သမးပကရန အေကာငးဆး နညးလမးတစရပျဖစလမမည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည ယခအခါတြင ဒမကေရစအသြငကးေျပာငးေရးျဖစစဥမားကေဖာေဆာငေနသျဖင ျမနမာႏငင ေရးသည ပ၍ ပ၍ ႐ႈပေထြးလာသညက ျမနမာႏငင အေပၚ တ႐တနားလညရနအတြက အေရးႀကး သည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင တ႐တသည လြတလပေသာ ပညာရငမား/သေတသနသမားမား တ႐တသ႔ ပမနဖတေခၚၿပး ျမနမာႏငငေရးႏငပကသကေသာ ေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားျပလပသငသည။ ျ ျမနမာႏငငရ ေကာငးသားမားသည တ႐တကေပးေသာ ပညာသငဆမားႏငပကသကၿပး သတငးအခက အလကအနညးငယသာရရသျဖင တ႐တပညာသငဆမားသည တ႐တမားအတြကသာျဖစၿပး တ႐တစကားမတကလင တ႐တပညာသငဆက မရႏငဟ ယဆၾကသည။ လစြမးအားအရငး အျမစဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးက တးျမငရန တ႐တသည ျမနမာေကာငးသားမားအား ေ၀စတစခခြတမးခ ၿပး လကခႏငသည။ ျမနမာျပညသမား၏ အျမငတြင ျမနမာအမးသမးငယမားသည တ႐တသ႔ လေမာငခကနကး ရန ဆြေဆာငခရေလရၿပး တ႐တမသနစြမးသ အမးသားမား သ႔မဟတ စတေ၀ဒနာရငမား ႏင အဓမၼထမးျမားျခငးခရသညဟ ျမငေနၾကသည။ အဆပါ ရာဇ၀တမႈမားက တ႐တက လ ေလာကေသာ
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အေရးယမႈမားမျပလပဟ ျပညသမားကထငျမငေနၾကသျဖင တ႐တသည အဆပါရာဇ၀တမႈမားက အေရးယမႈမားပမျပလပၿပး တ႐တက အဆပါရာဇ၀တမႈမားက မညသ႔တကဖကေနေၾကာငး ပဂၢလကမဒယာမားမတဆငျပညသမားက အသေပးရမည။ တ႐တေခါငးေဆာငမား ျမနမာျပညသ႔ သြားေရာကလညပတလငလညး တကသလေကာငး သားမားႏင အရပဘကလမႈအဖြ႕အစညးမားထ သြားေရာကၿပး စကားေျပာသငသည။ ဥပမာ အေနာကႏငငေခါငးေဆာငမားျမနမာႏငငသ႔ သြားေရာကလညပတခၿပးအရပဘကအဖြ႕ အစညးမားႏငေတြ႕ဆခသည။ ဂပနေခါငးေဆာငမားလညး ျမနမာႏငင သ႔သြား ေရာကလညပတခၿပး အရပဘကလမႈအဖြ႕အစညးမားႏငေတြ႕ဆခကာ ကေလးငယမားႏင ကစားခသျဖင ထမနစ ပငးေၾကာင ဂပနသည ျမနမာျပညသမား၏ အသညးႏလးက ရယႏငခသည။ ျပညသခငး ဆကဆေရး အားေကာငးေစရန တ႐တသည မမ၏ နာမညေကာသ႐ပေဆာငမား သ႔မဟတ အဆေကာမားက ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ေစလႊတၿပး သတမနအျဖစ ျမနမာျပညသမားႏငေတြ႕ဆ ေစႏငသည။ အေမရကနႏင အးယတ႔ကသ႔ပင တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငအား အထးကနသြယေရး အခြငအလမးေပးၿပး ေၾကြးမအခ႕ကေလာ ပစသငသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြငကနေခာထတလပေရးလပငနးမား ႀကးထြားဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈကအားေပး ရနႏင အလပအကငအခြငအလမးမား ပမ ဖနတးေပးအလ႔ငာ ႏစႏငငၾကား ကနသြယေရးမညမမႈက ယၾကညႏငေစရန တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငထမ သြငးကနမား တးျမငတငသြငးျခငးအခ႔က ျပလပသငသည။ အာဏာမလႊ ေျပာငးမ ျမနမာႏငငတြင စစအစးရသည သယဇာတအားလးက တ႐တသ႔ေရာငးခသြားခသညဟ ျမနမာျပညသအခ႕က ယဆျဖင စစအစးရလကထကအတြငး ျမနမာႏငငႏငခပဆထားခေသာ ယခငကနထ႐ကစာ ခပမား ကလညး တ႐တက သးသငသည။ ေနာကဆးအေနျဖင တ႐တ သည NLD ႏင ပမနးကပစြာဆကဆၿပး လကရ တ႐တ-ျမနမာ ဆကဆေရးက ေဆြးေႏြးရန ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညက တ႐တသ႔ ဖတေခၚသငသည။ အဆပါအခြငအလမးက ရယၿပး တ႐တ ဘာႀကကသည၊ မႀကကသညက ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညသရေအာင တ႐တက ျပလပႏငသည။
188
ျမနမာႏငငေရးႏငစးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးကာလအတြငး ျမနမာတြင တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ
China’s Investment in Myanmar under Its Political and Economic Reform
Lu Guangsheng Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,
Yunnan University [email protected]
၂၀၁၂ ခႏစ၌ ျမနမာႏငငတြငတ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈပမာဏသည ေဒၚလာသနး ၁၄၀၀ ေကာခၿပး ျမနမာ ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈစစေပါငး၏ ၅၀ ရာခငႏႈနးေကာခကာ ျမနမာတြင တ႐တသည အမားဆးရငးႏးျမပႏ သျဖစခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငေရးႏင စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားသည တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားအတြက အခြငအလမးအသစမားႏင စနေခၚမႈအသစမား ႏစမးစလးက ေဆာငကဥးလာခသည။ ျမနမာ ႏငငျခား ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈဥပေဒသစႏင ႏငငပငလပငနးမားက ပဂၢလကသ႔ လႊေျပာငးရန အားထတမႈမားေၾကာင တ႐တအပါအ၀င ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏသမားအတြက ဆြေဆာငစရာျဖစခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျမစဆ ဆညေဆာကလပေရး ရပတန႔ျခငးႏင လကပေတာငးေၾကးနစမကနးက ဆန႔ကငဆႏၵျပမႈမားေၾကာင တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏသမား အထနာခသည။ အေျခအေနသစႏငရငဆငရင တ႐တအစးရႏင လပငနးမား ႏစဥးစလးတ႔သညျမနမာႏငငတြငရငႏးျမပႏျခငးအတြကမမတ႔၏မ၀ါဒမားကထနးညမႈမားျပလပခၾကသည။ ၂၀၁၀ ကတညးက ျမနမာႏငငတြင တရတရငးႏးျမ ပႏမႈ ဘာမားေျပာငးလခသနညး ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈကဆငးခသည။ ၂၀၁၂ ၾသဂတလအထ တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငငတြင အေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၁၄ ဒသမ ၁၁ ရာခငႏႈနးရငးႏးျမပႏခၿပး ပထမေနရာတြငရေနခသည။ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ မာ အဓကအားျဖင ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕၊ လပစစဓာတအား၊ သတတြငးႏင ကနေခာထတလပေရးလပငနး မားတြငျဖစၾကသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ၂၀၁၁ တြင ျမစဆဆည ရပဆငးခရၿပးေနာက ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ တ႐တ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအသစမား ထပမ၀ငေရာကလာျခငးမရေတာဟ သတငးမားကဆသည။ အစးရသစက ေဖာ ေဆာငေနသည ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ၏ အကးဆကမားက ယခအခနအထ ေစာငၾကညေနဆျဖစသည။ တ႐တလပငနးရငအခ႕သည မၾကာေသးသည ႏစႏစတာကာလအတြငး ျမနမာႏငငေျမာကပငးတြင ရငး ႏးျမပႏမႈမားက ရပတန႔ခၾကသည။ အခ႕ကမ ျမနမာႏငငမ လာအသ႔ဆတခြာရန စစဥၾကသည။ တ႐တအစးရက တ႐တ-ျမနမာ စးပြားေရးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈ အေျခအေနသစႏငအည မမ၏ ျမနမာေရး ရာ မ၀ါဒက ထနးညခသည။ ထပတနးသမတန Wang Yinfan က ၂၀၁၃ အစပငးတြင အာရေရးရာ ကယ စားလယအျဖစခန႔အပခၿပး ျမနမာေရးရာတာ၀နချဖစလာခသည။ ျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ တ႐တသအမတသစ Yang Houlan သည ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညႏင ၈၈ မးဆကေကာငးသားေခါငးေဆာငမားအပါအ၀င ႏငငေရးပါတအားလးႏင တကၾကြစြာ ဆကသြယလကရသည။ ျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ တ႐တသ႐းသည ေဖစ ဘြတသးစြခၿပး ျမနမာျပညသမားႏင ဆကသြယရန လမးေၾကာငးတစခအျဖစ အသးျပလကရသည။ ထစဥ ႏငငျပငပတြင လပကငၾကမည တ႐တလပငနးမားအတြက သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ စခနစ ညႊနးမားက တ႐တအစးရက ျမငတငခသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ေဖေဖာ၀ါရလတြင ကနသြယေရး၀နႀကးဌာနႏင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နး ကငေရးရာ၀နႀကးဌာတ႔ပးတြၿပး ႏငငရပျခား ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈႏင ေကာပေရးရငးမားတြင သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကင ေရးရာ လမးညႊနခကမားက ထတျပနခၿပး ယငးအမးအစားတြင ပထမဆးေသာ ထတျပနခကျဖစခသည။ ႏငငရပျခားတြင သြားေရာကလပကငၾကမည တ႐တလပငနးအားလးသည အမ ရငႏငင၏ ဥပေဒအားလးက
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လကနာရမညျဖစၿပးသဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာကာကြယေရးတာ၀န ၀တရားမားကလညး ျဖညဆညးရ မညဟ လမးညႊနခကမားတြင ရငးရငးလငးလငး လမးညႊနထားသည။ ၂၀၁၃ မတလ ေနာကပငတြငး ျမနမာႏငင၌ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမျပမ တ႐တလပငနးမားသည ျပညနယ (ျမနစပါယ) ကနသြယေရးဌာနထမ အၾကျပေထာကခခကတစခရယရမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင ႐ႈပေထြးေနေသာ အေျခအေနမားႏငရငဆငရငး အခ႕ေသာ တ႐တလပငနးမားသည ယငးတ႔၏ အတတကအျပအမမားက ကယတငျပနလညဆနးစစျခငးမားျပလပၿပး အေရးယမႈအခ႕ျပ လပခၾကသည။ သတ႔သည အာ႐ပစကလာၿပး လမႈတာ၀န၀တရာမားကျဖညဆညးေရး၊ ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈ ျမငတငေရး၊ ျပညတြငးမဒယာမားႏင တကတကၾကြၾကြထေတြ႕ေရးႏင “အေျပာေလာၿပး အလပပလပ” ရန ပမရငးႏးျမပႏလာၾကသည။ ျမစဆဆည ကနထ႐ကစာခပခပဆသျဖစသည Chinese Power Investment Corporation သညေဒသချပညသမားႏငေျပာဆေဆြးေႏြးျခငးႏငတ႐တႏငျမနမာမဒယာမားၾကားဆကသြယ ေရးတးျမငျခငးတ႔အပါအ၀ငဆညအေပၚ ျမနမာအျမငေျပာငးလေစရနအားထတမႈႀကးႀကးမားမား ျပလပခ သည။ ထ႔ျပငသဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ ကာကြယေရးက အာ႐စကရန တ႐တ- ျမနမာ ဓာတေငြ႔ပကလငး ကနထ႐ကစာခပခပဆသညလပငနးက ပကလငးတစေလာက အေျခခ အေဆာကအအမား တးတကေရး အတြက အၾကမးဖငး အေမရကနေဒၚလာသနး ၂၀ ရငးႏးျမပႏခသည။ CPIC ကစာသငေကာငး ၄၅ ေကာငး၊ မႀကေကာငး၂ေကာငး၊ေဆး႐၃႐ႏငေဆးခနး၂၁ခနး၊မေဒးေရေလာငကနႏငရခငျပညနယတြင လပစစဓာတ အားလငးအခ႕တညေဆာကခသည။ ၀မေပါငသတတြငးကမဏကလညး လကပေတာငးေၾကးနစမကနး တစ၀က ေကာငးအသစႏငစာၾကညတကေဆာကလပရန၊ လမးမားျပနလညေဖာကလပရန စစဥေနသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တရငးႏးျမ ပႏမႈ အလားအလား ျမနမာႏငငသည ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားတြင ပၿပး လကေတြ႕အကးစးပြားက ေရး႐ႈလာလမမည။ လကပ ေတာငးေတာင ေၾကးနစမကနးက ဆန႔ကငဆႏၵျပျခငးအေပၚ စစမးစစေဆးေရးေကာမရင အစရငခစာက ေထာကျပသညမာ ေၾကးနစမကနးသည ႏစဖကသေဘာတလကမတေရးထးထားသည စမကနးျဖစၿပး တစဖတသကရပဆငးပါက ျမနမာ၏နာမညဂဏသတငးက ထခကေစလမမညျဖစကာ ရငးႏးျမပႏသမား ၏ ယၾကညမႈ၊ ႏစႏငငဆကဆေရးႏင ေရရညျပညသ႔အကးစးပြားမားကလညး ပကျပားေစမညဟ ဆသည။ ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားက မႏစသကသည အျပအမအခ႕ရေသာလညး တငးျပညႏင မမျပည သတ႔၏ အကးစးပြားအတြက ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားအေပၚတြင ပမလကေတြ႕အကးစးပြားကကာ သမာသမတကေသာ သေဘာထားမားက ျမနမာအစးရႏင ျပညသမားက ထားရသြားလမမညဟ ျပသေန သည။ အေနာကႏငငမား ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ျပနလည၀ငေရာကလာျခငးသည အကးဆကမားရလမမညျဖစေသာ လညး တ႐တေနရာက ယႏငမညမဟတေခ။ အေမရကနသည ၂၀၁၂ ေမလတြင ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚခမတ ထားသည စးပြားေရး အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားက ဆငးငထားေၾကာငး ေၾကညာခၿပး ႏ၀ငဘာလတြင သမၼတ အဘားမားသည ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ သမငး၀င အလညအပတခရးသြားေရာကခသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ဧၿပလတြင လက နကတငပ႔ေရာငးချခငးမအပ ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚခမတထားသည အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈအားလးက အးယက ႐ပသမးခသည။ ေနာကတစလအၾကာတြင ဂပနက ျမနမာႏငငအား ODA ယနး ၉၁ သနးေထာကပၿပး ေၾကြးမ ယနး ၂၀၀ ဘခေလာလကသညဟ ေၾကညာခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျမနမာႏငငသည ယငး၏ ေခတ ေနာကကနေနေသာ အေျခခအေဆာကအအမားႏင ေခတေနာကကေနၿပး မေျဖရငးႏငေသးေသာ တငး ရငးသားေရးရာႏင ဘာသာေရးအကပအတညးမားေၾကာင ေလာေလာဆယတြင ႀကးမားေသာ ရငးႏးျမပႏ မႈအတြက အသငမျဖစေသးေပ။ ထ႔အျပင အေမရကနသည ၄ငး၏ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈအားက အျပညအ၀ ႐ပသမးချခငးမရေသးဘ ကမၻာလးဆငရာ စးပြားေရးအကပအတညးမလညး အျပညအ၀နာလနထျခငးမရ
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ေသးေခ။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငသည မေ၀းေတာသည အနာဂတတြင အေနာကႏငငမားထမ ပမာဏႀကးမား ေသာ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈႏင အကအညမားရႏငရနမာ လကေတြ႕အေကာငအထညေပၚမညမဟတေပ။ ေယဘယအားျဖင ေျပာရလင ျမနမာႏငငတြင တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ၏ အဓကသြငျပငလကၡဏာသးရပမာ ေနာကဆးအေျခအေနက ဆပကငၿပး ေစာငၾကညကာ တျဖညးျဖညးတးတကေအာငျပလပျခငးျဖစသည။ ေနာကဆးအေျခအေနက ဆပကငျခငးဆသညမာ ေနာကထပ ျမစဆဆညအေျခအေနမးက ေရာငလႊရန ႏင တ႐တ-ျမနမာဓာတေငြ႔ပကလငးက အလြနႀကးမားေသာ သကေရာကမႈမကာကြယရနျဖစသည။ တ႐တသည ျမစဆဆညျပနလညစတငမည အားထတမႈမားက ရပတန႔မညမဟတေပ။ လကရတ႐တ၏ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမား မာ ပမာဏႀကးမားၿပး ေရရညရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားျဖစသည။ မေတာတစဆမႈ တစခခမရလင ထလပငနးမားက စဥဆကမျပတလညပတသြားႏငလမမညျဖစသည။ ေစာငၾကညျခငးဆသညမာ တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငင ေရးႏင စးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမား၏ ရလဒႏင တးတကမႈမားက ဆကလကေစာင ၾကညေလလာသြား မညျဖစသလ တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈအေပၚသကေရာကမႈကလညး ေစာငၾကညသြားမည ျဖစသည။ အဆပါ သြငျပငလကၡဏာသည ၂၀၁၅ ေရြးေကာကပြကငးပခနအထေသာလညးေကာငး၊ ထထကပမရညၾကာ သညအထေသာလညး ျဖစဖြယရသည။ ျမနမာတြင တ႐တရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ၏ ေႏးေကြးမႈ တးပြားလာသညလမး ေၾကာငးသည အထကတြငေဖာျပထားသည ကစၥရပမား ေျဖရငးႏငျခငးမရလင သ႔မဟတ ျမနမာအေျခအေန သည ရငးရငးလငးလငးမရေသးဘျဖစေနခနအထ ေျပာငးလမညမဟတေပ။ တစျဖညးျဖညးတးတကျခငး တြငမကႏာစာႏစရပရသည။မကႏာစာတစရပမာတ႐တလပငနးမားလပငနးလပကငေရး၊ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နး ကငကာကြယေရး၊ လထဆကဆေရး ထနးသမးေရးတ႔အတြက မမ၏ လမးညႊနခကမားက တ႐တက တးျမင သြားလမမညျဖစသည။အျခားမကႏာစာမာတ႐တလပငနးမားသညလပငနးလညပတႈ မဟာဗဟာ၊ သဘာ၀ ပတ၀နးကငကာကြယေရးႏင လမႈတာ၀န၀တရားမား က ပၿပး အာ႐စကလာလမမညျဖစသလ လပငနး လညပတစဥအတြငး ႏငငေရး၊ စးပြားေရးႏင လမႈေရး စြန႔ စားရႏငေျခမားကလညး ပၿပးအာ႐စကလမ မညျဖစသည။ နဂး တ႐တသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ ပမာဏအမားဆးရငးႏးျမပႏသျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၁ တြင အစးရသစတကၿပး ကတညးက ျမနမာျပညတြငးေရးႏင သတမနေရးတြင အလြနႀကးမားေသာ အေျပာငးအလမား ျဖစေပၚခ သည။ ျမနမာစးပြားေရးတြင မေရရာမႈမားရေနသာျငား အလားအလာအားလးက ၿခၾကညလင အေကာငး ဘကသ႔ ေရာကေနသည။ ၿပးခသည ႏစႏစတြင အစးရသစသည မားစြာေသာ စးပြားေရးဥပေဒမားႏင စညးမဥး စညးကမးမားက စတငျပဌာနးခသည။ စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၏ အေရးပါမႈက ဆကလကဆပကင သြားမညျဖစ ၿပး ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားကလညး ဆြေဆာငသြားလမမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာေစးကြကသည ပမရငသနလာလမမညျဖစၿပး ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈပတ၀နးကငသညလညးပၿပးပြငလငးလာကာ ႏငငတကာကငထး မားႏငအညျဖစလာလမမညျဖစသည။လတတေလာျမနမာေစးကြကသည စြန႔စားရႏငေျခမား၊ အခြငအလမး မား ျဖငစတငႏးထစျဖစသည။ယငးသ႔ေသာစနေခၚမႈမားႏငအခြငအလမးမားက ရငဆငရငး တ႐တ လပငနး မားသည ပၿပး တညၿငမကာ အေကာငးဘကကၾကညၿပး ဓမၼဒဌာနကသငသည။
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ႏငငေတာအသြငေျပာငးျခငးႏင ႏငငေတာပါ၀ါ၏ ပထ၀၀င - တ႐တႏင ျမနမာၾကား နယျခားျဖတေကာဖြ႕ၿဖ းမႈတြင ရာေဖြျခငး
State Transformation and the Geography of State Power:
Exploring Cross-border Development between China and Myanmar
Nora Schlenzig The University Hong Kong [email protected]
ႏငငေတာအခပအျခာအာဏာႏငပတသက၍တ႐တေရး႐းစြအယအဆေပၚတြငအရငးခထားၿပး ႏငငအမားစ ကမ တ႐တ၏ႀကးထြားလာေသာ လႊမးမးမႈက မသကမသာခစားရသညတင ႏငငေတာ၏အေသးစတနား လညစရာတစရပ က ထတယထားသည သမား႐းကႏငငတကာဆကဆေရး သအရမားကတ႐တႏငငျခား ေရးမ၀ါဒဆငရာစာေပေပၚတြငရေနဆျဖစသည။ အဆပါသေဘာတရားထတယျခငး အရ ႏငငေတာဆ သညမာ နယေျမပကနကတစခႏင သတမတထားေသာ လဥး ေရအေပၚ သးသန႔ အာဏာပငမႈႏငအတ ဗဟအစးရ၏ အခ႕ပစမားျဖငမ႑ငျပ တညေဆာကထားျခငးျဖစသည။
တကယကမၻာက တက႐ကပေဖာထားျခငးမျပသည စျပပစတစရပအျဖစတညရေနသည။ ယငးပစမ ေသြဖယျခငး သည ယေန႔ ကာလ၏ နယျခားျဖတေကာဆကဆေရးမားက နားလညရာတြငအဓက ေသာခကျဖစသညဟ မၾကာေသးမႏစမားက မားစြာေသာ ပညာရငမားက ေထာကျပခသည။ ဖနတးထား သညႏင မားစြာျခားနားေသာ အေရးကစၥမားက သတ႔က ထတႏတျပခသည။ ႏငငေတာပစႏင နယျခားျဖတေကာဆကဆေရးမား မညသ႔ မညပဆကႏြယသညက ပမနက႐ႈငးစြာနား လညရနမာ တ႐တ၏ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရအမနးခငးမားႏင ပါ၀င ပကသကမႈတးပြားလာျခငးက နားလညရန မလြမေသြ လအပပေပၚသည။
အဆပါအခငးအကငးတြင လႈပရားသက၀ငေနေသ ကစၥရပမားသည တ႐တ၏ နယစပျပညနယႏစခ ျဖစေသာယနနႏင ေဂါငဇျပညနယႏစခ၏ ေဒသႏရအာဏာပငမားႏင ဗဟၾကား ဆကဆေရးတ႔ျဖစၾကသည။ ထ႔ျပင ႏငင ေတာအသြငေျပာငးျခငးအေပၚ မားစြာေသာသအရဆရာ အျငငးအခမားတြင ႏငငေတာႏင ႏငငေတာမဟတေသာ အကတာမားၾကားရပငးျခားထားေသာ မဥးမာ ပၿပးမႈန၀ါးလာသညမာ ပ၍ေယဘယ ကသညဟလညး ေဆြးေႏြးေနၾက စဥ ယချဖစရပတြင တရားမ၀ငႏင တရား၀ငလမးေၾကာငးမားေရာေထြး ေနသညက အထးအာ႐စကရမည ကစၥတစရပ ျဖစသည။ ယငးသည မးယစေမာငခမႈႏငျခစားမႈတ႔ကသ႔ ေသာ ရာဇ၀တမႈေျမာကသညလပငနးမားက ညႊနးဆေသာ လညး လ႔အဖြ႕အစညးအတြငး ပၿပးအျပသေဘာ ေဆာငသညလပငနးမားျဖစသည တရား၀ငမေဘာင၏ ျပငပမ အငစတကးရငးမားႏင အေလအထမား ကလညး ရညညႊနးႏငသည။
သမား႐းကႏငငေတာအစးရအဖြ႕ အစညးမား၏ ျပငပမ အစးရမားႏင အကတာမား၏ အမးမးေသာ ပထ၀ဆငရာ အလႊာမားအပါအ၀င တ႐တႏင ယငး၏အမနးခငးမားၾကားဆကဆေရးက ေလလာသး သပရာတြင ၄ငး၏အမနးခငးႏငငမား အား ပထ၀ႏငငေရးအရလႊမးမးမႈခ႕ထြငေရးႏင ရငးျမစမားအတြက ပရပျမႇငတငေရး သ႔မဟတအလအယကႀကးပမးေရးတ႔တြငတစဥးတညးေသာအကတာအျဖစတ႐တ၏ ပရပကစနေခၚမႈႏငမညအလားအလာမားရခသည။ ယငးျဖစစဥတြငပါ၀င ပကသကေနသည မားစြာေသာ
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ပေလယာမားတြင မတညေသာအဆငမားႏင ပနးတငမားရေနသညကနားလညျခငးသည ျမနမာႏငင အတြက ထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရးမဟာဗဟာမား ထနးညေရးႏင တးတကေရးတြင ေသာခကျဖစသည။
ပဋပကၡ၏ အမးမးေသာအကးစးပြားမားႏင အလႊာမားက နယျခားျဖတေကာဆကဆေရးမားႏင ပတသက ေသာသေဘာတရားမားႏငအေလအထႏစခစလးျဖငေျခရာေကာကႏငသည။ ယငးအဆမားက ခငမာေစရန တ႐တႏငငရႏငငေတာေစးကြကဆကဆေရးမားႏငတ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးအေပၚယငး၏ ႐ကခတမႈမား မထြကေပၚလာသည မတခကမားက ေကာကႏတျပရငး အမနးခငးမားအေပၚယနန ျပညနယ၏ “Bridgehead Strategy” အသစႏငစပဆကေသာ တရား၀ငေျပာ ၾကားျခငးမားက ေဖာထတျခငးျဖင ႀကးပမးျပသသြားမညျဖစသည။
ယနနသညအေနာကေတာငဘကဆဆ တ႐တ၏လမးပြငရနအတြက “Bridgehead Strategy” ျဖစလာ မညဟ၂၀၀၉ ခႏစတြငယငးျပညနယသ႔သြားေရာကေသာခရးစဥ၌ပါတအေထြေထြအတြငးေရးမး ဟကင ေတာငကေျပာၾကားခသည။ ပမနအားျဖင ၂၀၁၁ ခႏင ၁၂ ႀကမေျမာက ၅ ႏစစမကနး၏ အစတအပငးတစ ရပက စတငမတဆကျခငးအျဖစ အမနးခငးႏင ငမားႏင တ႐တ၏ ေနာကထပစးပြားေရးဆကဆေရးႏင ေဒသတြငးပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမႈကတးျမႇငရနမာ ယငးမဟာဗဟာ၏ ေၾကညာခေသာ ရညမနးခကမား ျဖစသည။ ယငးရညမနးခကမားတြင နယျခားေဒသတညၿငမေရးလပငနးမားႏင အႏၵယ သမဒၵရာသ႔ မဟာဗဟာေျမာကခတဆကမႈတစခ ေဖာေဆာငေရးတ႔လညးပါ၀ငသည။
မဟာဗဟာအတြက အမညအားျဖငေဖာျပရာတြင လၿခေရးဆငရာကစၥရပကပင ရာေဖြေတြ႕ပရသည။ “Bridgehead” ဆ သညမာ မလကအားျဖင စစေရးေ၀ါဟာရျဖစၿပး ရနသ႕အနးအနားရ တတားတစခက ခခကာကြယရသည တပဖြ႕မားက ေဖာျပရာတြင သးေလရၾကသည။ အဆပါ စစေရးေ၀ါဟာရက တ႐တအ ဘဓာနတြင “Baidu” ဟေတြရႏငၿပး စးပြားေရးေ၀ါဟာ ရတစခလညးျဖစသည။ ေခတၿပငတ႐တဘာသာစ ကားႏငဆကစပ၍ အျခားေသာဘာသာေဗဒရငးလငးခကမာ တစပါတ အပခပမႈရခသည ဆရယလစစ မားႏင စးပြားေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈၾကား ကြာဟခကက တတားထးေပးရန ေတာလနေသာ ေ၀ါဟာရအျဖစ လညး သးေနၾကဆျဖစသည။ အျခားေသာ စာေစာငမားတြင “ဂတေပါက မဟာဗဟာ” အျဖစလညး သးေန ၾကျခငးသည ယငးသည ကအေၾကာငးမလေသာ ဘာသာျပနမႈတစသာလညးျဖစေကာငးျဖစမည။
ပ႐ဂရမ၏ရညမနးခကမားႏငသကဆငေသာ ထတေ၀ေရးသားမႈမားစြာကဖတ႐ႈၾကညရာတြင မညသညလႈပရားမႈလပသင သညက အမးမးေရးသားရသညက ေတြ႕ရသည။ “Bridgehead” ဆေသာေ၀ါဟာရက ၂၀၀၉ ႏင ၂၀၁၁ ၾကားတြင ထတေ၀ ေရးသားမႈမားစြာတြင စတငခသည။ ယငးကာလတစ၀ကတြငပင အမးသားမဟာဗဟာကလညး ေၾကညာခသည။ ယငးစာ သားမားက အထကတြငေဖာျပခသည တရား၀ငရညမနးခကမား သ႔မဟတ တ႐တကမး႐းတနးေဒသမားႏင ကနးတြငးျပည နယမားၾကားဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးကြာဟာမႈကဆြေစရနရညမနးထားသည အေလးအနကျပေသာ ျပညတြငးအားထတမႈမားတြင အသးျပ ၾကသည။
သ႔ေသာလညး ထေ၀ါဟာရက မားစြာေစာသညအေရးအသားတစခတြငအသးျပကာ ထတေ၀ေရးသားမႈ တစခတြငပါရခသည။ တ႐တ-အာဆယလြတလပစြာကနသြယေရးႏငပကသကေသာ ယနနလမႈေရးသပၸ အကယဒမ၏ စးပြားေရးဌာနကထတသည ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအစရငခစာတစခတြငပါ၀ငချခငးျဖစကာ ယငး၏ ေနာကကြယမ မလအငဒယာက ေဒသဆငမစတငခပရသညဟ ဆရမညျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင
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ဥးတညခကသည သေဘာသဘာ၀အရ ႏငငျခားေရးမ၀ါဒအသားေပးႏင စးပြားေရးပဆနပရ သည။ ထ႔ေၾကာငပင မဟာဗဟာႏင အဓပၸာယႏင ရညမနးခကမားသည ေနာကပငးတြငမသာ ဗဟအာဏာပငမားက သင ေလာသလ ခနညႇခၾကသညဟ မနးဆႏငမညျဖစသည။
ယနယျပညနယအေနျဖင အမနးခငးႏငငမားက ပ႔ကနေစးကြကတစခအျဖစသာဆကဆေနျခငး ကရပတန႔ရနလျပးႏစဖကစလးအတြက အကးအမးပမျဖစထြနးသည ဆကဆေရးကကငသးရန ၂၀၁၁ တြင ထတေ၀သည တ႐တေန႔စဥသတငးစာပါ ေဆာငးပါး၌ပင တကတြနးခသည။ ယငးတကတြနးခကသည အမးသားမ၀ါဒမားက ေဒသဆငရာအဆင၌ အဆင၌ အေကာငအထညေဖာရာတြငဗဟအာဏာပငမားက ႐း႐းသားသားတကတြနးျခငးေလာ၊ သ႔တညးမဟတ အစး ရ၏ ေအာကေျခအဆငမားက အျပစပချခငးေလာ ဆသညမာ မသကြေပ။ သ႔တင ဗဟ-နယစြနနယဖားဆကဆေရးတြင အခ႕ေသာတငးမာမႈမားရေနသညဟ ယဆႏငသည။
နယစပရ ဒဟြနးခ႐ငကငလညး မမ၏မဟာဗဟာေျမာကအေနအထားက အသးျပၿပး ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈခ႕ထြငရန အထကကေဆာငးပါးႏငအလြနတေသာေဆာငးပါးတစပဒတြငလညး တကတြနး ထားသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး “Bridgehead” မဟာဗဟာ၏ ထပပငးအျဖစလညး ရညညႊနးသည ျမနမာႏငင သ႔ အဓက၀ငေပါကနယျခားၿမ႕ျဖစေသာ ယငးခ႐ငရ ေရႊလ ၿမ႕သ႔ သြားေရာကသညအခါတြင ပ႐ဂရမတြင ယငးနယျခားေဒသမားသည မညသ႔ပါ၀ငကျပႏငမညနညးဆသညက သသယေပၚခသည။ ကခင ျပညနယရ မၿငမသကမႈမားႏင ကမၻာသ႔တခါးဖြငေနသည ျမနမာ၏လပငနးစဥမားေၾကာင တစခန က အထးကနျမနမာႏငင၏အသကေသြးေၾကာျဖစခေသာနယျခားကနသြယေရးသည ကသြားမညပရေနသည။ ျပညသ႔လြတေျမာကေရးတပေတာကထားရေသာ ၿမ႕အႏရေနသည ပစတာအႀကးစားႀကးမားတြင စစပညာ သငၾကားေရး မညမအေရးႀကးပက သတေပးေနၿပး နယျခားျဖတေကာျခငးကလညး ကငမရာမားျဖငခနကာ တငးတငးၾကပၾကပ ေစာင ၾကညလကရသည။
တ႐တႏငငရ ႏငငေတာ-ေစးကြကဆကဆေရး၏ ဒတယကစၥရပကေျဖရငးရနမာ ႏစဖကစလး၌ ပမနစညး ကမးထနးခပမႈဖြ႕ ၿဖးေရးကၾကညရန၊ ဘ႑ာေရးက႑၊ ပငဆငမႈပစမားျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင ကြနျမနစပါတ (CCP) အေမြဆကခမႈ၏ ေျပာငး လေနေသာ အေျခခမားက ၾကညရနလအပသည။
CCP အေမြဆကခမႈအရဆလင စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးတးတကမႈသည ပါတအတြကေထာကတငတစခခအျဖစ ပမျဖစလာေနသည။ ပဂၢလကလပငနးမားက နညးလမးအမးမးႏငလကခရနလညး CCP က ႀကးပမး လကရသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ေသာခကက သညေမးခြနးမာ ပဂၢလကက႑သည ပါတတြငးအေျပာငးအလ ၏ဧဂငျဖစအျဖစရမညေလာ သ႔မဟတ ပါတက ပဂၢလကစြန႔ဥး လပငနးရငမားက ေရြးခယတးခ႕ခန႔ထားၿပး စးပြားေရးလပငနးတြငးသ႔ ပါတ၀ငမားပ႔ေဆာငျခငးျဖင ၄ငး၏အာဏာခငမာေရး က လပေဆာငမညေလာ ဆသညပငျဖစသည။
ေယဘယအားျဖငဆလငအစးရအရာရမားပဂၢလကစြန႔ဥးလပငနးရငမားျဖစသြားခနတြင အသြားႏစဖကပါ ဓားလျဖစသြားႏငသည။ လသားအရငးအႏးအားျဖင ပဂၢလကက႑က အားေကာငးေစႏငေသာလညး ခ႐န အရငးရငစနစကလညး အရနျမင သြားေစႏငသည။ ယနနျပညနယတြင ပဂၢလကစြန႔ဥးလပငနးရငမား CCP သ႔၀ငေရာကမႈတးပြားေနသညဆေသာလညး ျပညနယတစခလးပါတ၏အေရးအတြကႏငယဥလင နညးပါး ေနေသးသည။
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ယငးအေနအထားတြင ေနာကထပအေပါငးလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈမာ ႏငငေတာအတြငးသ႔ ေစးကြကသေဘာတရား မား စမ၀ငသြားမညအျဖစမးပငျဖစသည။ ဥပမာအားျဖင ႏငငပငလပငနးမားရ အမေဆာငမား၏ဆေၾကးမားသည ဘ႑ာ ေရးစြမးေဆာငရညအလကတးပြားလာျခငးႏင ပါတအတြငး ရငးျမစခြေ၀မႈႏငရာထးတးျခငးအတြက ျပညနယဆငရာ စးပြား ေရးေအာငျမငမႈမားျဖစေပၚလာျခငးျဖစသည။
သ႔ေသာလညး ယနနျပညနယႏင ျမနမာအေရးက ပၿပးအေသးစတကကၾကညလင ေသာခကကေသာ ျပနာမာ ျပညနယ လပငနးအမားစႏင ျမနမာႏငငတြငးသ႔၀ငေရာက ျမႇပႏမႈအမားစ ေဆးရြကႀကး ထတလပေရး၊ ေရနႏင ဓာတေငြ႕တးေဖာေရး ႏင ေရအရငးအျမစကသ႔ေသာ ႏငငပငလပငနးမားႀကးစးထား သညလပငနး အမားအျပားျဖစေနျခငးပငျဖစသည။ အနညး ဆးအားျဖင နယျခားေဒသမားတြင တစဖကလ အပခကက တစဖကျဖညကာ ေဒသဖြ႕ၿဖးတးတကေရးက တကယတမးမကင တြယႏငေသးေခ။ တ႐တစး ပြားေရး၏ အားအေကာငးဆးအပငးျဖစေသာ ပဂၢလကလပငနးက႑သညလညး နယျခားေဒသ စးပြားေရး လပငနးမားတြင ေဘးထြကေနရသညအေနအထားတြငသာရေနေသးျခငးျဖစသည။
တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးတြင ပဂၢလကက႑ပါ၀ငပကသကမႈက ပၿပးအေသးစတကကသေတသနျပ လပရန ႀကးပမးရာ တြင ေရာေထြးေနသညအရာမားသည တစခါတစရတြင တ႐တ၏စာရငးအငးမားတြင ႐ႈပေထြးေနေသာ အမးအစားမားျဖစသည ကစၥျဖစသည။ ပဂၢလကက႑အတြက မတညေသာေ၀ါဟာရမား အတေရာေနျခငးသ႔မဟတေရ႕ေနာကမညအသးျပ ထားျခငးမား အေတာမားမားရေနျခငးျဖစသည။ ယငးတ႔ ၾကားတြင ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈအနညးဆးေ၀ါဟာရတစခကလညး ယနန၏ တစႏစတာစာရငးအငးစာအပထ တြငမၾကာမၾကာအသးျပျခငးျဖစသည။ အျပငဘကထေတြ႕ျခငးႏငပကသကၿပး ရာလသညဆပါက အျပည ျပညဆငရာကနသြယေရးကနးဂဏနးမားကသာ ရာေဖြႏငၿပး လကခသညႏငငမာ၏အေသးစတ မာ ထပမ မပါရေပ။
ေယဘယအားျဖင တ႐တပဂၢလကစးပြားေရးလပငနးမားသည ျမနမာႏငငတြင ဘနးအစားထးမဟာဗ ဟာႏငကနထ႐ကလယယာေျမလပကငျခငးတြငတရားမ၀ငလပရပမားအေပၚမခထားျခငးေၾကာင နာမညဆးရရခၿပးျဖစသည။ ပဂၢလက စးပြားေရးလပငနးပငရငမားကသာ လကညးထးအျပစပခရနမာလညး ပါ၀ငပတသကေနေသာ ျပနာရပမားမာ အလြန ႐ႈပေထြးလြနးလျပနသည။
နယျခားျဖတေကာလပငနးမားသညတစခါတစရတြင လအပသညထကစညးကမးတငးၾကပသျဖင အပခပေရးပငးဆငရာ အတားအဆးမားႏင အေႏာငအယကမားျမငမားေစသည။
ပဂၢလကက႑အတြကျပနာတစရပအျဖစရေနေသးသည ေနာကထပကစၥတစရပမာ တ႐တရ ဘဏစနစ ျဖစသည။ တရား ၀ငဘဏမားက၄ငးတ႔အား ေငြမေခးေသာေၾကာင စးပြား ေရးလပငနးအမားစမာ စြန႔စား ရႏငေျခႏင အတးႏႈနးျမငမားေသာ တငးျပည၏ဘဏမဟတေသာေငြေခးစနစအေပၚ အားထားေနရျခငး ျဖစသည။
ယြမ(Renminbi) လလယျခငးကစၥကလညး ေနာကထပျပနာမားက ျဖစေပၚေစသည။ ေငြေၾကးက ႏငင တကာတနး၀ငေအာင ေနာကထပလပေဆာငရန တ႐တအစးရက မၾကာေသးမကႀကးပမးခသညတင ယခအခနအထမဟာမေခါင ေဒသတြင လာအႏင ထငးႏငငတ႔ရ ဘဏတစခစကသာ ေငြလလယေရး သေဘာတညခကမားက လကမတေရးထးထားသည။ တ႐တဘကတြင နယျခားျဖတေကာရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈ၏ ဘ႑ာေရးစညးမဥးမရမႈႏငအတ ျမနမာႏငငတြငလညး ထ႔အတြကဘဏစနစတစခမရေသးေသာေၾကာင
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အဆပါက႑အတြက မကႏာသာမေပးသညအေျခအေနမားျဖစေပၚေစ သည။
လကတေလာကစၥရပအားလးက မကႏာသာအလြနမေပးသညအေျခအေနတြငရေနပရေသာလညး အမးမးေသာ ပေလယာ မားႏင အကးစးပြားမားပါ၀ငပကသကေနသည နယျခားျဖတေကာသက၀င ေနမႈမားကၾကညျခငးျဖင တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆ ေရးအတြက အခ႕အလားအလာမားရေနသညဟ ဆရမည။ ပဋပကၡႏင ၿပငဆငမႈက ပငးျခားထားသည အစစအမနမဥးမား က ထညသြငးစဥးစားျခငးသည သငေလာေသာမဟာဗဟာတစခေရးဆြရာတြင လအပသညသာမက အနာဂတကာလတြင တ႐တ-ျမနမာဆကဆေရးတးတကရန ေနရာသစတစခတညေဆာကရနအတြကလညးျဖစသည။
196
ျမနမာႏငငက ေပးသည တ႐တ၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအကအည
Exploring China’s Investments and Development Assistance in Myanmar
Diane Tang Lee Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute, University of Manchester
မတဆက
ကၽြနေတာ၏ ေဒါကတာဘြ႕စာတမးသည ျမနမာႏငငအား မတညေလလာမည တ႐တ၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရး အကအည တရား၀ငျဖစမႈ၏ အေျခခသေဘာတရားက ဆနးစစေလလာသြားမညျဖစသည။ ကၽြနေတာသည ျမနမာႏငငသ႔ ပဏာမေလလာမႈခရးစဥသြားေရာကခၿပးျဖစကာ ကၽြနေတာ၏ ကနဥးေတြ႕ရခကမားအေပၚ လႀကးမငးတ႔၏ မတခကမားက ၀မးေျမာက၀မးသာႀကဆပါသည။ တ႐တ၏ အကအညက စးပြားေရး၊ လမႈေရးႏင ႏငငေရးမကႏာစာမားဟ၍ အၾကမးဖငးအားျဖင အမးအစားခြျခားထားပါသည။ စးပြားေရး မကႏာစာတြင အတးမေခးေငြျဖင ျမစဆဆညေဆာကလပေရးက ေထာကပျခငးကသ႔ အေျခခ အေဆာကအအစမကနးမားႏင အမးမးေသာ စက႐မား၊ ပ႔ေဆာကေရးအေျခခအေဆာကအမားႏင လပစစဓာတအားေပး စက႐မားအပါအ၀င အျခားလပငနးစမကနးမားျဖစၾကသည။ ထအရာမားက စးပြားေရးလပငနးရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားဟ အစဥယဆၾကေသာလညး ထစမကနးမားသည စးပြားေရး အေထာကအပတစခအျဖစ မတယထကသည။ တ႐တအကအည၏ လမႈေရးမကႏာစာဆသညမာ အေျခခအေဆာကအအစမကနးမား၏ အကးဆကမားကခစားရေသာ ေနရာေဒသမားတြင ျပညသမား အတြက ေကာငးမားႏင ေဆး႐မားေဆာကလပျခငးတ႔ အဓကပါ၀ငေသာ အသကေမြး၀မးေကာငးတး တကေရး အကအညေပးမႈမားျဖစသည။ ယငးတ႔သည တ႐တႏငငပငးလပငနးမား (SOE) က ေဆာင ရြကသည ေကာပရတလမႈတာ၀န၀တရား (CSR) ၏ အစတအပငးတစရပအျဖစ အဓကအားျဖင လပ ေဆာငျခငးျဖစသည။ ယငးမကႏာစာအားလးမာ ခတဆကေနေသာလညး ယခတငျပမႈတြင စးပြားေရးမကႏာကသာ တငျပသြား မညျဖစသည။ တ႐တသည စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအကအညေပးျခငးတြင အေလးထားျခငးေၾကာင ကာလၾကာ ရညကပငထငရားခသည။ ႏငငဗဟျပႏင အေျခခအေဆာကအအဘကကသာအားျပသညမအပ တ႐တ အကညအား ျမနမာအစးရႏင ျပညတြငးအေျခအေနမား၏ ဥးစားေပးမႈမားကလညး မညသ႔လႊမးမးမႈရ သညက တ႐တ စးပြားေရးအကအည၏ အေျခခမမားအား ေဆြးေႏြးသြားမညျဖစသည။ ႏငငေရးပတ၀နးကငသစေအာကတြင တ႐တအကအညမားႏင အျခားရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားအား ဆးျဖတ ခကခရာတြင ျပညသမားပါ၀ငမႈပမရရန ျမနမာအရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားက ေတာငးဆေနၿပး တ႐တႏငငပငမဒယာႏင ျမနမာႏငငရ တ႐တသ႐းကလညး ျပညသ႕ထေတြ႕မႈတးျမငရမညဟ ဆထား သညမာ အထငးသားေတြ႕ျမငေနရသည။ အျခားေသာ အားထတမႈမားက ေတြ႕ျမငႏငခၿပျဖစေသာလညး သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ အပခပမႈတြင ျပညသမား၏ပါ၀ငမႈ အေတြ႕အႀကမရခၾကေသာ တ႐တအစးရႏင ႏငငပငလပငနး (SOE) အရာရမားရငဆငရမည စနေခၚမႈမား ျပသရန သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာအပခပမႈ၏ လကရအေျခအေနမားက ကၽြနေတာဆြထတျပသြားမညျဖစသည။
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တ႐တသည စးပြားေရးစမကနးမားစြာက အေထာကအပမား၊ အတးမေခးေငြမား၊ ႏစရညေခးေငြမား ေပးခၿပး ယငးတ႔ကကပင အကအညအျဖစ သတမတရမညျဖစသည။ ျမစဆဆညကသ႔ေသာ အႀကးစားအေျခခ အေဆာကအအမားမအပ လႀကကမားေသာ အႀကးစားစမကနးမား၏ အရပထးခရေသာ အျခားစမကနးမား လညးရသည။ ဥပမာအခ႕ကျပရလင ၁၉၈၀ ျပညႏစမားတြင ယြမေငြ အနညးဆး သနး ၅၀ က အတးမေခးေပး ခသည ရနကန-သနလငတတားအပါအ၀င စမကနးမားႏင လပစစဓာတအား ေပးလပငနး၊ ကနထတလပ ေရးႏင စကပးေရးလပငနးက႑မားသ႔ အတးမေခးေငြမားေပးျခငးျဖစသည။ အျခားေသာဖြ႕ၿဖးဆႏငငမားကေပးသည တ႐တအကအညမားလပင စမကနးအမားစမာ စးပြားေရး လပငနးႏင ကနသြယမႈတ႔ျဖင ဆကစပေနသည။ တ႐တအကအညမားက တ႐တျပညတြငးစးပြား ေရးတညေဆာငရန အခြငအာဏာရၾကသည ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရး၀နႀကးဌာနႏင တ႐တပ႔ကန၊ သြငးကနဘဏတ႔က ကငတြယ သည။ ယငးသ႔ကငတြယျခငးသည အေနာကႏငငမားစ ကငတြယပႏင ဆန႔ကငဘကျဖစေနသည။ ဥပမာ အား ျဖင ႏငငတကာဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးဆငရာ အေမရကနေအဂငစသည ႏငငျခားေရး၀နႀကးဌာန၏ လကေအာကတြငရ သည။ ယငးသ႔ေသာ အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာတညေဆာကပ အရ တ႐တသည မမ၏စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအတြက အက အညမားက အသးျပသလ အမရငႏငငမား၏ စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈအတြကလညး အသးျပသညက ျပသေနျခငးျဖစ သည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ယငး၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအကအညသည “ႏစဖကအကးစးပြားအတြက ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကျခငး” က ပမအားစကခသညမာ အလြနရငးေနၿပျဖစသည။ တ႐တ၏ကနသြယေရးႏငဆကစပၿပးအကအညေပးျခငးမာ၁၉၅၄ ခႏစတြင တ႐တ၀နႀကးခပ ခအငလငး ခမတခသည တနးတညမမႈ၊ ႏစဖကအကးအျမတႏင အမရငႏငင၏ အခပအျခာအာဏာက ေလးစားမႈ စသညတ႔ပါ၀င“ၿငမးခမးစြာ အတယဥတြေနထငေရးမႀကးငါးရပ”က အေျခခထားသည ယငး၏ ႏငငျခားေရး မ၀ါဒအရလပေဆာငျခငးျဖစသည။ ယေန႔ကာလ တ႐တေခါငးေဆာငမားကလညး အကအညေပးျခငးက မတဖကျပျခငးတရပအျဖစ႐ႈျမငၿပး တစေၾကာငးသြား အလဒါန သ႔မဟတ ဗလကစးမးေရးလကနကအျဖစ အသးျပ ျခငးမဟတဟ ႐ႈျမငၾကသည။ တကယတမးတြင သရလကၤာ၊ မဇမဘစ၊ ဇငဘာေဘြတ႔ကသ႔ေသာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးဆႏငင မားစြာတြင ယငးနညးလမးက ေအာငျမငသည မဒယတစရပအျဖစ အစးရမားက႐ႈျမငၿပး အေနာကကမၻာအလ ရငမား၏ ၀နထတ၀နပးျဖစေစမည ျခြငးခကမားျဖငေပးေသာ အကအညမားထက ျပနရနငမည အျခားနညး လမးတစရပအျဖစ ႐ႈျမငသည။ ထ႔အျပင တ႐တသည အဆပါႏငငမားအား ႏငငတကာ ေ၀ဖနမႈႏင လကတ႔ ျပနျခငးတ႔မ အကာအကြယေပးလကရသျဖင အေတာမားမား သသယ ရၾကသညမာ အကးအျမတသည ႏစ ဖကညမ၏ေလာ၊ တ႐တသာ အကးပျဖစထြနးသေလာဆျခငး ျဖစသည။အထးသျဖင မၾကာေသးမကဆႏၵျပမႈမားျဖစခေသာျမနမာႏငငတြငေဒသခလထကေကနပလကခ ၾကသေလာဆသညပငျဖစသည။အဆပါ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမားမား သတမနေရးအားျဖငသာမက စးပြားေရးအကး အျမတအားျဖငပါလပေဆာငၾကသညအတြကအထကတြငေဖာျပခသည တနးတညမေရးႏင ႏစဖကအကး ျဖစထြနးေရးမႀကးမားမ ေသြဖညမသြားရနမမတ႔၏ စးပြားေရးလပငနးအေလအထမားက မညသ႔ကငသး ၾကမညနညး။ ျပလပရနကနရသည သေတ သနတြင အဆပါမမားက တ႐တမညသ႔ကငတြယမညနညးက ကၽြနေတာတတႏငသမ ရာေဖြေဖာထတသြား မညျဖစသည။ တ႐တ၏ အကအညမားသည လစဘရယဒမကရကနညးမားကငသးသည အေနာကႏငငမားကေပးသည လၿခေရးက႑ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားကတစဆငေပးေသာ အကအည သ႔မဟတ ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာက ျခငး အစအစဥမား၊တရားဥပေဒစးမးေရးလပငနးမား၊အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလတရားမတမႈ ယႏယားမား၊ ေရြးေကာကပြေစာငၾကညေလလာျခငးစသညတ႔ႏငမားစြာကြာျခားသညက အထးတလညမတသားထားသင သည။
198
စးပြားေရးအကအညတြင တ႐တအလြနအမငးဥးတညသညမာ တ႐တျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးႏင တခါးဖြင ေရးႏင ပကသကၿပး ၁၉၇၀ျပညႏစမားတြင ေျပာၾကားခသည ၀နႀကးခပေဟာငး တန႔ေရာငဖန႔၏ ေကာၾကားေသာ မတခကျဖစသည “ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးသညသာ အေရးႀကးဆး”ဆသည ယၾကညခကကအေျခခ ထားျခငးျဖစသည။ ယငးသည စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈသည ႏငငေရးအရတရား၀ငျဖစမႈတညေဆာငေရး၏ပဓာန ကေသာနညးလမးျဖစသည ဟသည ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးပညာရငမားက အဆကလညး ထငဟပေနသည။ ႏငငျခား ေရးမ၀ါဒတြငလညး အရာရမားသည ႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင လမႈတရားမတမႈတ႔ထက စးပြားေရး ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈက ဥးစားေပးၾကသည။ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအတြက ႏငငေတာဗဟျပခဥးကပမႈက တ႐တ၏ ႏငငတကာၾကား၀ငမႈမားတြငတြငပါကငသးခၿပး တ႐တသည ယငးတ႔၏သဘာ၀က ထညမတြကဘ အာဏာလကရအစးရမားကသာ ေထာကပလမမည ဟေသာ စြပစြမႈ မားေပၚေပါကေစခသည။ အဘယေၾကာငဆေသာ တ႐တသည အမရငႏငငမား၏ အစးရ မားႏငသာသးသန႔ပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကေလရခရာယငးနညးလမးသည ႏငငေတာတညေဆာကေရး အတြက အေထာကအကျဖစဖြယရေသာလညး အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမား ခငမာအားေကာငးေစျခငးပါ၀ငသည အားလးပါ၀ငေသာ ၿငမးခမးေရးတညေဆာကမႈတစခေတာမဟတေပ။ သ႔ေသာလညး ႏငငေတာဗဟျပခဥးကပနညးက ကငသးကာေပးအပေနသည တ႐တ၏အကအညမား သည ကမၻာအရပရပတြငေ၀ဖနမႈမားႏငရငဆငေနရခနတြင ေဒသခအေျခအေနမားႏင အမရငအစးရတ႔၏ ဥးစားေပး အရာမားသည တ႐တ၏ ထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရးကပေဖာေနသည အရာမားျဖစသည ကကၽြနေတာ တငျပသြားမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြငတ႐တ၏ထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈသည အစးရအားအေထာကအပျပရန ျဖစသညမာသယသျဖစဖြယရာမရေသာလညး ထသ႔ျပလပရသညအေၾကာငးမာ တငးရငးသားလနညးစ မားႏင မမတ႔ၾကားအပစအခတရပစေရးႏငၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥမားက အေရးေပၚကငတြယရနလအပေန သညဟ ျမနမာ အစးရက႐ႈျမငေသာေၾကာငတ႐တကျမနမာအစးရႏင တငးရငးသားလကနကကငတပဖြ႕ မားႏငအတ ပေပါငး ေဆာငရြကရာတြင ၿငမးခမးေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြမားက အေထာကအပေပးျခငးႏင ပါ၀ငကညျခငးတ႔က လပေဆာငခ ျခငးျဖစသည။ မၾကာေသးမက ႏငငေရးပြငလငးမႈအေပၚ ျမနမာအစးရက ဥးစားေပးလာခသည ရလဒအျဖစေဒသခ အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမား ဆႏၵျပရနေနရာပရလာျခငးကလညး ေဒသခလထ၊ ေဆာၾသေရးအပစ မားႏငထေတြ႕ဆက ဆျခငးျဖင မမတ႔၏ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမားက ေဒသခမား၏ ဆန႔ကငမႈက တ႐တက တ႔ျပနမႈေပးရန လအပေၾကာငး ျပသေနျခငးျဖစသည။ နယျခားေဒသႏင စြမးအငလၿခေရးတြင မမကယပင အေရးေၾကာင တ႐တသည ၿငမးခမး ေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြႏင နစနာခကေတာငးဆ မႈမားက ေထာကပသည အေၾကာငးတရားမားရေသာလညး ေဒသခ အေျခအေနမားေၾကာင ထသ႔ျပလပရခနတြငပင အမရငအစးရ ၏ ဥးစားေပးကစၥရပမား၏ လႊမးမးမႈရၿပး ယငးခဥးကပမႈတြင ႏငငေတာဗဟျပၿပး အစးရခငးေဆာငရြကၾက သည႕လမးအတငး တညမသြားေတာဘ လအပခကအရေသာလညးေကာငး၊ လကေတြ႕အကးစးပြားအရ ေသာလညးေကာငးတ႐တကခနညႇေဆာငရြကသညနညးျဖစသည။ခနညႇထားေသာယငး၏ အကအညတြင ပမျဖစႏငသညမာ ၁) မကႏာစာအရ ဘကစ ပါ၀ငျခငး (ဥပမာ- အစတြငေဖာျပထားခသည လမႈေရးႏင ႏငငေရးမကႏာစာမားမ)၊ ၂) တ႐တပါ၀ငပကသကျခငးရသညအကတာမား/သကဆငသမား အဆငဆင ပါ၀ငသည အားလးပါ၀ငမႈတ႔ျဖစသည။ တ႐တ၏ တ႔ျပနမႈမာျမနမာအရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင ထေတြ႕ျခငး၊ ခနညႇမႈမား လပေဆာငရျခငး မားၿဖစျပး၊ ျမနမာအရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားထမ ဆန႔ကငမႈမားျမငတကလာျခငး ေၾကာငျဖစသည။ ကၽြနေတာ၏ ပဏာမေလလာေတြ႕ရခကမားအရ သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငေရးရာ၊ လမႈေရးႏင ယဥေကးမႈ ဆငရာကစၥရပမားစြာတ႔တြင တကတကၾကြၾကြပါ၀ငၾကသည ရနကနရ အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညး(CSO)
199
မားၾကားကြနရကခတဆကမႈ အားေကာငးသညက ေတြ႕ရသည။ CSO မား၏ ေပါငးစညးညညြတမႈ ေၾကာင ႏငငတ၀နး အသပညာေပးျခငးကလပေဆာငႏငရန ပနးခဆရာမား၊ ကာတြနးဆရာမား၊ ကဗာဆရာ မား၊ ဓာတပဆရာမားအတတကြပးေပါငးပါ၀ငရန လပေဆာငႏငခၾကသည။ တစခနတညးမာပင ရနကနအေျခ စက CSO မားသည တငးရငးသားႏငငေရးပါတေခါငးေဆာငမား၊ တငးရငးသားတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားႏင အခတအဆကေကာငးေကာငးရၾကသည။ ရနကနအေျခစက CSO မားက ပြငလငးျမငသားမႈႏင တာ၀နခမႈ က အေလးထားေတာငးဆၿပး တငးရငးသားေခါငးေဆာငမားက ကယပငအပခပခြငပေပးရနကပါေတာငး ဆၾကသညအတြကသတ႔၏ဥးစားေပးေတာငးဆမႈမားမာ ကြျပားေကာငး ကြျပားႏငသည။ သ႔ေသာျငားလညး ျမစဆ ဆညဆန႔ကငေရးလႈပရားမႈအတြကလႈ႕ေဆာခၾကရာတြင ယငးတ႔အၾကား ညညြတေသာစတဓာတရ ခၾကၿပးအျခားေသာအကးစးပြားႏငတငးရငးသားမတညမားကေကာလႊားႏငခၾကသည။ မမ၏ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈ မားကဆန႔ကငမႈမားအားတ႔ျပနမႈေပးရနလအပသညဟတ႐တက႐ႈျမငသည။ျမစဆ ဆညတညေဆာကေရး ဆငးငၿပးေနာကအရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင ထေတြ႕ကာ ဒငယာေလာျပလပေရး သ႔မဟတ တငပင ေဆြးေႏြးေရးအတြကတ႐တဘကအားထတလပေဆာငမႈမားတးပြားလာခသည။၂၀၁၂ခႏစတြငတ႐တ-ျမနမာ ဆကဆေရးႏငပကသကေသာ ေဆြးေႏြးပြတစခက တ႐တသ႐းကျပလပခၿပး ယငး ေဆြးေႏြးပြသည အလြနပြငလငးခသညဟ တကေရာကသမားက ထငျမငၾကသည။ ၄ငးတ႔၏ ပပနမႈမားက နားလညႏငရန အတြကေဒသခေကးရြာသားမား၊ဘာသာေရးအႀကးအကမားႏငစကားေျပာဆရနတ႐တ ကးသနးေရာငး ၀ယေရး၀နႀကးဌာနအရာရတစဥးသညအခကအလကေကာကယေရးခရးစဥအျဖစ ကခငျပညနယသ႔ သြားေရာကခသည။ ႏငငေတာအရာရမားက ဥးေဆာငၿပး ထေတြ႕ဆကဆမႈေၾကာင ေကနပႏစသကၾကမညဟ အမားစက ထငျမငယဆၾကသညတင တ႐တႏငငပငလပငနးမားကေတာ ထသ႔မဟတေပ။ ပြငလငးျမငသာမႈႏင အနးအနားရ ရပရြာမား၏ ေကနပလကခမႈတးျမႇငျခငးအပါအ၀ငပကလငးစမကနးႏငပကသကေသာ အေရးကစၥမားက တ႐တအမးသားေရနေကာပေရးရငး (CNPC) သ႔ ျမနမာ-တ႐တ ပကလငးေစာငၾကည ေရးေကာမတ (MCPWC) က အၾကျပခကမားေပးခသည။ CNPC က ျငငးပယမႈက MCPWC က မားစြာ စတပကခရသည။ CNPC သည သတငးစာထတြင အခကအလကမနအားလးက ျငငးပယခသညဟ တငးရငးသားပါတတစခမ ေျဖဆသတစဥး ကေျပာၾကားခသည။ ကမၸဏသည တာ၀နမားက အျပညအ၀ မယသကသ႔ အမညခ တငပငေဆြးေႏြးျခငးႏင နစနာေၾကးေပးျခငး အခမးအနားကငးပရာဓာတပမား က သတငးစာမားတြငထညသြငးေဖာျပျခငးျဖင လမ ညာေနသညဟ မမတ႔ခစားရေၾကာငး တကၾကြလႈပရားသ မားစြာႏင တငးရငးသားေခါငးေဆာငမားစြာထမ အႀကမႀကမၾကားခရျပး အကးဆကခစားရေသာ လထကလညး ေကနပလကချခငးမရေပ။ ႏငငေတာ-အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးဒငယာေလာသည မၾကာေသးမကသာစတငခၿပး တ႐တႏငငပင လပငနးမားသည အမားျပညသႏငတငပငေဆြးေႏြးျခငးႏင ရငးႏးကၽြမး၀ငျခငးမရၾကေပ။ ျမနမာအရပဘက လ႔အဖြ႕ အစညးမား တ႐တႏငငႏင ႏငငပငလပငနးမားအား ျပညသလထႏငထေတြ႕ဆကဆျခငးက သငယႏငရန တြနးအားေပးလကရသည။ တ႐တႏငငအတြငး သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာအပခပမႈတြင ျပညသလထပါ ၀ငမႈ၏ လကရအေျခအေနမညသ႔ရ သနညး။ တ႐တအစးရ (ႏငငအဆင၊ ျပညနယအဆင မားႏင ႏငငပငလပငနးမား) သည အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင တက႐ကအျပနအလနဆကဆျခငး က မညသ႔မညပသကေသာငသကသာျဖစေအာငလပေဆာငမညနညး။ ျပညသလထေတာငးဆခကမားက တ႔ျပနရနမညသ႔ေသာ အေတြ႕အႀကမားရရထားသနညး။ တ႐တအစးရသည သဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငေရးရာ တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမားနင ရငးႏးကၽြမး၀ငျခငးမရေပ။ ျပညသလထက ေဒါသတစႀကးတ႔ျပနမႈေၾကာင သမၼတဥးသနးစနက ျမစဆဆညတညေဆာကေရး ဆငးငလကျခငးသည ၂၀၀၄ ခႏစ၌ တ႐တႏငငတစ၀နးျပညသမား၏ ဆန႔ကငမႈေၾကာင ႏျမစဆည
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(သလြငျမစ) တညေဆာကေရး က ၀နႀကးခပ၀နကားေပါငကဆငးငရနဆးျဖတလကျခငးအား ျပနလည အမတရေစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး အဆပါတကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမား၏ စ႐ကလကၡဏာႏင ၄ငးတ႔ရရထားသညေနရာတ႔တြင တ႐တႏင ျမနမာၾကားမားစြာကြာျခားသည အေနအထားတြငရသည။ တ႐တႏငငတြငမ အစးရကသဘာ၀ ပတ၀နးကငဆငရာ အကးဆကမားဆနးစစျခငး(EIA)က ျပလပၿပး၂၀၀၀ ျပညႏစအေစာပငးတြင ျပညသ႔ သေဘာထားစညးမဥးစညးကမးမားကေဖာေဆာငခသညတင အစးရအရာရမားသည ျပညသမားပါ၀င သည ဆးျဖတခကခေရးတြငအရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားႏငထေတြ႕ဆကဆသညအေလအထမး မရခေပ။ တ႐တ NGO မား အမနတကယပါ၀ငႏငေရးတြင မားစြာေသာ အကန႔အသတမားရေနသည။ ထ႔ျပင တ႐တႏငင၌သဘာ၀ ပတ၀နးကငေရးရာ တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈမားသည အစးႏငစငၿပငေဖာေဆာငမႈ ထကအစးရႏငပးေပါငးေဆာငရြက ေရးသာျဖစၿပး ENGO မားသည ပါတ-ႏငငေတာႏင ပမနျဖစေစ၊ ပမနမဟတေသာနညးလမးျဖငျဖစေစ အခတအဆကရၾကသညသာျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရသဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငေရးရာတကၾကြလႈပရားသမား၏သဘာ၀ႏငယငးတ႔ႏငႏငငေတာၾကား ဆကဆေရးက ကၽြနေတာ အေနျဖင အလြနအေသးစတကက မေဖာထတခသညတင ကၽြနေတာဆကဆခ ေသာ CSO မား ႏငင ေတာႏင ပမနျဖစေစ၊ ပမနမဟတေသာနညးလမးျဖငျဖစေစ အခနအဆကမရၾက သညမာအေသအခာပငျဖစသည။ထ႔ေၾကာငတ႐တကသ႔မဟတဘမမတ႔၏ ႏငငေတာတြင ပၿပးလြတလပမႈ ရကာတ႐တသဘာ၀ပတ၀နးကငေရးရာတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားရငဆငရသညအေျခအေနမား/အကန႔ အသတမားလ ရငဆငရျခငးမရသည ျမနမာႏငငရ အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမးႏင တက႐ကဆကဆ ရသည အေတြ႕အႀကမး တ႐တအရာရမားတြင မရၾကပေပၚသည။ အနညးဆးအားျဖင တ႐တသဘာ၀ ပတ၀နးကငေရးရာတကၾကြလႈပရားသမား ျမနမာႏငငရ ပြငလငးလာေသာႏငငေရးေနရာမး မရၾကျခငး ျဖစသည။ တ႐တ၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအကအညမားသည ျမနမာႏငင၌ တရား၀ငျဖစမႈအကပအတညးႏင ရငဆငေနရသည။ ဤသညက တ႐တအရာရမားက အသအမတျပၿပး ယငး၏ ခဥးကပမႈက ခနညႇရနစတငခကာ ၁) အကအည၏ လမႈ ေရး ႏင ႏငငေရးမကႏာစာမားကပါ ထညသြငးျခငးျဖင ခငမာျပညစေရး၊ ၂) တ႐တပါ၀ငပကသက ျခငးရသည အကတာမား/သကဆငသမား အဆငဆငပါ၀ငသည အားလးပါ၀ငမႈတ႔ ပမျဖစလာေစရနျဖစ သည။ အနာဂတတြငကၽြနေတာျပလပမည သေတသန၏ ရညရြယခကတစခမာ တ႐တႏငင (ႏငငအဆင၊ ျပညနယအဆငမား၊ ႏငငပငလပငနးမား) သညမမ၏တရား၀ငျဖစမႈတးတကရန မမ၏ အကအညလပထး လပနညးမားကျမနမာႏငငရအရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမား၊အစးရမဟတေသာအကတာမားႏင မညသ႔ပး ေပါငးလပေဆာငမညနညးႏငေရ႕တြငမညသ႔ေသာစနေခၚမႈမားရေနသနညးဆသညက ရာေဖြေဖာထတ သြားရနျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမား ရငဆငေနရေသာ စနေခၚမႈမား
Challenges Facing Myanmar’s Migrant Workers
Khin Maung Nyo Senior Research Fellow, MDRI‐CESD
[email protected] ေမလ ၃၀ ရကေန႔တြင ထတေ၀ခေသာ The Economist မဂၢဇငးတြင ျမနမာလဥးေရ၏ ၁၀ ရာခငႏႈနးသည ႏငငရပ ျခားတြင ေနထငလကရေၾကာငး ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားအတြက အျပညျပညဆငရာအဖြ႕အစညး (IOM) ကခန႔မနးခသည။ ထငးႏငင တြင ျမနမာအလပသမား ၂ သနးမ ၄ သနး၊ မေလးရားႏငငတြင ၅ သနးခန႔၊ စငကာပတြင ၁ သနးေကာ၊ ဂပနႏင ေတာငက ရးယားတြင ေထာငဂဏနးႏင အႏၵယႏင တ႐တတ႔တြင ကနးဂဏနးမသသည ပမာဏရသညဟ အျခားေလလာမႈတစရပ ခန႔ မနးခသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ယမနႏစတြင ႏငငျခားေရာကႏငငသားမား၏ လႊေျပာငးေပးသညေငြေၾကး အေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၅၆၆ သနးသာ (သ႔မဟတ ဂဒပ၏ ၁ ဒသမ ၁ ရာခငႏႈနး) ျမနမာႏငင ဗဟဘဏသ႔ ေရာကရခသည။ ျမနမာႏငင၏ ရညမနးခကႀကးမားေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးအစအစဥသည မကခ႐စပြားေရး တညၿငမမႈ၊ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမား စတ၀ငစားမႈ ျမငမားလာျခငးႏငအတ အသးအပြငမားသးပြငလာသညဟ အျပညျပညဆငရာေငြေၾကးရနပေငြအဖြ႕ (IMF) က ၂၀၁၃၊ ေမလ ၂၂ ရကေန႔တြင ထတျပနခသည။ ၂၀၁၂/၁၃ (မတလတြင ကနဆးသည) ဘ႑ာေရးႏစ (FY)တြင ဖြ႕ၿဖးတး တကမႈသည ၆ ဒသမ ၅ ရာခငႏႈနးရခသညဟ ခန႔မနးခၿပး ၂၀၁၃/၁၄ ဘ႑ာေရးႏစတြင ၆ ဒသမ ၇၅ ရာခငႏႈနးသ႔ အနညး ငယတးတကမညဟ ခန႔မနးထားသည။ အေရ႕အာရဆငရာ ကမၻာစးပြားေရးဖရမတြင ျမနမာအတကအခေခါငးေဆာင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညက “ကၽြနမတ႔ႏငင ကၽြနမတ႔လမးေတြ သတ႔ရ႕ အစြမးအစေတြယေဆာငလာၿပး ျပနလာႏငတ ရပၿမတစချဖစခငတယ” ဟ ေျပာခသည။ ယငး ကၾကညလင ျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားသည ခကခေသာ၊ ညစပတေသာ၊ အႏရာယမားေသာ လပငနးခြငအေျခအေန ေအာကတြင ႏငငရပျခား၌ အလပလပရသညက မေပာပကေၾကာငး တစစတတစပငးေဖာျပျခငးျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး သမဆႏၵသည မညသညအခနတြင ျပညၿပး မညသညနညးျဖငအေကာငအထညေဖာမညက သမက အာမမခႏငခေပ။ အလပအကငႏင ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးေနထငျခငးက ေျဖရငးရန ျမနမာအလပသမား၀နႀကးဌာနက မၾကာေသးမက မဟာဗဟာတစခ ခမတခသည။ လငယမားႏင အလပမရသမားအတြက ျပညတြငးႏငႏငငျခား အလပအကငမားရာေဖြရာတြင အကအညေပး ရန အလပသမား၀နႀကးဌာနက ႏငငတ၀နးတြင အလပအကငရာေဖြေရးစငတာ ၇၇ ခဖြငလစခသည။ အထးသျဖင ယခင တရားမ၀ငလပရပအျဖစယဆခၿပး ဥပေဒအရ ႀကးေလးေသာ အျပစေပးခခရမည လကၡဏာတစရပျဖစသည အမနးခငး ထငးႏငငရ ေရႊ႕ ေျပာငးလပသားမားက မတပတငရန သမငး၀ငအေျပာငးအလတစခ ျပလပခသည။ (စးပြားေရးႏင လမႈေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးအတြက မေဘာင) ထငးေတာ၀ငအစးရႏငပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကၿပး ထငးႏငငရ ၂ သနးခန႔ရေသာ ေရႊ႕ ေျပာငးအလပသမားမားခေရာကရရန ႀကးပမးေနစဥ ၅ သနးခန႔အား ႏငငလကမတမားႏင အသအမတျပကတျပားမား ထတေပးခၿပျဖစသည။ အသအမတျပၿပး မတပတငခြငျပရန တရား၀ငႀကးပမးမႈသည ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမား၏ စားရတႏင
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ဆငးရမြေတမႈအကးဆကမားက ေလာခႏငမညျဖစသည။ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမား၏ ျပနပ႔ေငြသညလညး သငေလာေသာ ဘဏစနစမတစဆင ေရာကရႏငေတာမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာအစးရ၏ မားမၾကမက ေဖာေဆာငခသည မ၀ါဒမးက ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားအတြက အနညးငယသာ အာ႐စကခ လင ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားအတြက အခ႕ေသာ ပပနမႈမားက သကသာရာရေစမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာအစးရသစ၏ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးေနထငျခငးမ၀ါဒတြင ပမနလမးေၾကာငးမတစဆငထြကခြာသည႕ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးသမားပါ ၀ငၿပး ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသား မားအတြက အေျခခအခြငအေရးမားကကာကြယရန၊ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးေနထငျခငးအတြက စားရတမားေလာခရနႏင ေရႊ႕ေျပာငး လပသားမား၊ မသားစမား၏ လမႈစးပြားဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏင ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးေနထငျခငးမရရလာမည အေတြ႕အႀကမား၊ ကၽြမးကငမႈမားႏင အသပညာမားေပၚတြင ဥးတညရနပါ၀ငသည။ ထ႔ျပင ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးေနထငျခငးက အမးသားဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးမဟာဗဟာတြငးသ႔ ေပါငးစညးသငသည။ ထထကပ၍ မ၀ါဒအရ အခကအလကေကာကယျခငး၊ ခရးသြားျခငးႏင သေတသနျပျခငးတ႔ကလညး ျပလပရမညျဖစကာ ႏငငတကာအဖြ႕အစညးမား၊ ႏငငတကာႏင ျပညတြငးအရပဘကအဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင ေပါငးစညးရမည။ ေနာကဆးအေနျဖင ျပညတြငးႏင ေဒသတြငး လပသားေစးကြကမား ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးက အားထတႀကးပမးရနျဖစသည။ မေလးရား၌ ေမလ ၃၀ ရကေန႔မ ဇြနလ ၄ ရကေနအထျဖစပြားခေသာ တကခကမႈ ၇ ခတြင ျမနမာလပသား ေလးဥးအသတခ ခရၿပး ေထာငႏငခ၍ ဖမးဆးစစေဆးခခရသည။ ယငးသည အပစလကတကခကမႈသာျဖစခၿပး မေလးရားလမးမားႏင မပက သကခေပ။ (ျမနမာႏငငျခားေရး ဒတယ၀နႀကး)။ အခ႕ေသာ မေလးရားစးပြားေရးလပငနးရငမားကပင မေလးရားရ ျမနမာ လပသားမားက အကာအကြယေပးရန ေတာငးဆခၾကသည။ မေလးရားရ ျမနမာလပသားအမားစမာ မေလးရားတြင တက ခကခရမႈႏင ျမနမာႏငငရယငးတ႔၏ မသားစမား၏ ပပနမႈေၾကာငေၾကာင မခငႏငငသ႔ျပနရနစစဥၾကေသာလညး စာခပပါ ကန႔သတခကႏင စာရြကစာတမးမျပညစမႈမားရေနသည။ သေဘာတထားသည ကာလအတငး အျပညအ၀လပကငခၿပး သညလပသားမားပငလင အလပရငမားက သတ႔၏ ႏငငကးလကမတမားက ထနးသမးထားသျဖင ျပနထြကရန အခကအခ ႏင ရငဆငေနရသည။ မေလးရားရ ျမနမာသ႐းအရာရမား၏ အေတြ႕အႀကနညးၿပး စြမးရညနမမႈေၾကာင တရားမ၀ငျဖစေနဆ ျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပ သားမားက လကမတထတေပးႏငျခငးမရဟ ျပနၾကားေရး ဒတယ၀နႀကး၏ အဆအရ သရသည။ ခန႔မနးခကတစခအရ မေလးရားတြင ထအေျခအေနႏငရငဆငေနရသေပါငး တရား၀ငေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသား ၃၀၀၀၀၀ ႏင တရားမ၀ငလပသား ၃၀၀၀၀ ရသညဟ သရသည။ ျမနမာအစးရသည ၀နထမးမားက အကန႔အသတျဖငသာခန႔ထားႏငၿပး အျခား၀နႀကးဌာနမား ႏငလညး ညႇႏႈငးေဆာငရြကရန လအပေနသညဟ အလပသမား၀နႀကးဌာန ဒတယ၀နႀကးကဆသည။ ဇြနလ ၁၉ ရကေန႔ တြင ျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသား ၁၀၀၀၀၀ သည အသအမတအျပလကမတမား ရရၿပးျဖစသညဟ အလပသမား၀နႀကးက ေျပာဆသည။ ကြာလာလမပရ ျမနမာသ႐းသ႔သြားေရာကရနမာ အႏရာယမားေသာေၾကာင မမတ႔ေဒသမားတြင ျမနမာသမး မားထားရေပးရန မေလးရား၏ နယေျမအသးသးတြင လပကငေနေသာ အျခားျမနမာလပသားမားက ေတာငးဆခသည။ မေလးရားသ႔ အလပသမားမား ပ႔ေဆာငျခငးမျပရန ျမနမာအလပအကငရာေဖြေရးေအဂငစအားမား ၀နႀကးဌာနက ၂၀၁၃ ဇြနလတြင တားျမစခသည။ မေလးရားသ႔သြားေရာကခသည အလပအကငရာေဖြေရးေအဂငစကယစား လယတစဥးကမ မေလးရားတြငျဖစေပၚေနသည ပဋပကၡမားမာ လမး သ႔မဟတ ဘာသာေရးခြျခားမႈႏငဆကစပၿပးျဖစ ေပၚသညမဟတဘ ကယေရးကယတာျပနာေၾကာင႔ျဖစပြားရသညဟ ဆသည။
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ျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမား၏ ကေကာငးေသာအခ႕အပစမားကမ ဒကၡသညအျဖစ UNHCR မတပတငရန ေစာငဆငးေန ၾကဆျဖစသည။ ကလသမဂၢဒကၡသညမားဆငရာ မဟာမငးႀကး႐းကထတေပးေသာ ဒကၡသညကတမားကငေဆာငထားသည၊ ေထာငႏငမခလငပင ရာဂဏနးရမညျဖစေသာ ျမနမာႏငငသားမားသည တရား၀ငအလပလပခြငမရသညအတြက ေဒသခ စးပြားေရးသမားမားအတြကနစနာသည။ မမတ႔၏ ဒကၡသညကတအဆငအတနးက အလြသးၿပး တရားမ၀ငအလပမားလပ ကငေသာေၾကာင ဖမးဆးခရခနတြင ဒကၡသညမားက အႀကမႀကမကာကြယေပးေသာေၾကာင UNHCR က ေဒသခမားက ေ၀ဖနၾကသည။ UNHCR ကနးဂဏနးမားအရ လဥးေရ ၉၀၀၀ ခန႔ရေသာ ျမနမာဒကၡသညအခ႕သည တငးျပညတြင မမတ႔ ဘာသာ အေျခခငသြားၿပးေနာကမေလးရားမထြကခြာသြားျခငးမရၾကဟဆသည။ (New Strait Times, 24th June 2013) မေလးရားရ လပသားမားက ျပနလညေခၚေဆာငရန ျမနမာစးပြားေရးလပငနးအသငးအ၀ငးႏင အရပဘကအဖြ႕အစညး မား က တကတကၾကြၾကြပါ၀ငၾကသည။ မေလးရားမျပနလာသ ၁၀၀၀ ၀နးကငအနက ဇြနလ ၂၈ ရကေန႔တြင ေနျပညေတာ၌ အလပသမား ၁၂ ေယာက၊ ရနကန၌ အလပသမား ၄၃ ေယာက စစေပါငး ၅၅ ေယာကက အလပခန႔ထားခသည။ (ျမနမာ အလငး ဇြနလ၊ ၂၉ ရက)။ ေယဘယအားျဖင ၄ငးတ႔၏ ကၽြမးကငမႈမားႏင အေတြ႕အႀကမားသည ျပညတြငးေစးကြကလ အပခကႏင အ၀ငမညမဟတေပ။ သ႔ေသာလညး အျခားတစဖကတြင ျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားသည တရား၀ငလမး ေၾကာငးမားမတစဆင မေလးရားသ႔ ဆကလကထြကခြာေနၾကသည။ ထငးႏငငရ ျပနာမာ မေလးရားႏငမတေပ။ ထငးႏငငတြင ျမနမာေအးဂငမား၏ အားထားရမႈႏင ယၾကညကးစားရမႈက ေမးခြနးထတရသညမာ လပခလစာႏင လပငနးခြငအေျခအေနပငျဖစသည။ ျမနမာအစးရသည ထငးအစးရႏင လကတြ ေဆာငရြကၿပး ထငးႏငငရ ျမနမာလပသား ၁ ဒသမ ၄ သနးအတြက ယာယႏငငကးလကမတမားထတေပးၿပးျဖစသည။ သ႔ ေသာ ၂ သနးမာ ကနရေနဆျဖစၿပး ယာယႏငငကးလကမတထတေပးျခငးလပငနးစဥက ၂၀၁၂ ခႏစ၊ ေမလ ၁၁ ရကေန႔မ ၾသဂတလ ၁၁ ရကေန႔အထ ထပမသကတမးတးထားသည။ ယာယႏငငကးလကမတကနကစရတမာ အလပသမားတစဥး လင ဘတ ၃၇၀၀ ျဖစၿပး မခသမားႏင ကေလးမားအတြက ၆၇၅ ဘတစကသငသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ပြစားမားမတစဆင ယာယႏငငကးလကမတျပ လပသညကနကစရတမာ ဘတ ၁၅၀၀၀ ခန႔အထကသငေနဆျဖစသျဖင ယငးတ႔ နစနာေနဆ ျဖစသည။ ပြစားမားမတစဆင ယာယႏငငကးလကမတလပသမားသည စာမတတသမား၊ သတငးအခကအလကႏင လပငနးစဥကနားလညျခငးမရသမားႏင ၀ငေငြနမသမားျဖစေကာငးျဖစႏငသည။ ထငးႏငငတြင တညေထာငထားသည ျမနမာ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားအတြက ေကာငးေပါငး ၇၄ ေကာငးရသညတင ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမား၏ ကေလးငယမားသည ပညာေရးက အလြနနညးပါးသညပမာဏကသာ ရရသည။ တရားမ၀ငျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားသည ထငးရတပဖြ႕၏ႏငထတျခငးက မၾကာခဏခစားရသလ ထငးရတပဖြ႕က လေမာငခကနကးျခငးအျဖစ အမႈႀကးေအာငလပျခငးလညးခရသည။ ဇြနလ ၂၁ ရကေန႔တြင ျမနမာေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသား ၁၅၀ သည ျမ၀တမတစဆင ႏငထတျခငးခခရသညဟ ျမနမာအလပသမားေရးရာအရာရမားက အတညျပခသည။ ထငးကမၸဏ မားႏင စာခပခပဆၿပးသားျဖစေသာလညး အလပသမား၀နႀကးဌာန၏ ခြငျပခကက မရႏငသျဖင သ႔တ၏ ေျပာငးေရႊ႕သြား ေရာကျခငးက ေႏာငေႏးေအာငျပလပသညဆကာ ျမနမာအလပသမား ၂၀၀ က ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစ ဇြနလတြင ျမ၀တ၌ ဆႏၵျပခၾက သည။
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ျပနလာၾကသမား ႀကေတြ႕ရဖြယရသည ဖကတာမားမာ ျမနမာႏငင၏ စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၊ လပခလစာကြာျခားမႈ၊ အလပလကမ ႏႈနး ၄ ဒသမ ၀၁ ရာခငႏႈနးမသည ၈ ရာခငႏႈနးမ ၁၀ ရာခငႏႈနးတးျမငလာမႈ (အလပသမား၀နႀကးဌာန၊ ၂၀၁၃ ၊ ေမ ၃၁) အလပအကငရားပါးမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈနမေသာ စးပြားေရးလပငနးမား၊ အထးသျဖင နယစြနနယဖားႏင တငးရငးသားေဒသမားတြင ၿငမးခမးေရး ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏင အျခားသမားၾကား ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားက ခန႔အပလမႈတ႔ျဖစသည။ အျခားစပဆကေနေသာ ကစၥ ရပမားမာ မခငႏငသည ထငးႏငငေလာ၊ ျမနမာႏငငေလာ၊ အသစျဖစၿပး မရငးႏးေသာ ျမနမာႏငငရ လမႈေရးႏင ႐ပပငး ဆငရာဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ၊ ထငးႏငငတြငေမြးဖြားသည ကေလးငယမား ျမနမာပတ၀နးကငႏင အသားကမႈ၊ ထငးႏငငတြင ေမြးဖြားေသာ ျမနမာကေလးငယမားအတြက စဥဆကမျပတသငတနးမားႏင ပညာေရးတ႔ျဖစသည။ အစးရမ၀ါဒ (ကမၻာတစ၀နးရ ျမနမာႏငငသားအားလးက အကာအကြယေပးရန လအပသည)၊ ျပနပ႔ေငြက ပမနလမးေၾကာငး မ ပမလြယကစြာလႊေျပာငးျခငး၊ နယျခားေဒသမားအနးတြင စကမႈဇနမားထေထာငျခငး (အေျခခအေဆာကအအမားသ႔ ဘ႑ာေရးေထာကပမႈအကန႔အသတေၾကာင ေႏးေကြးစြာ ဖြ႕ၿဖးျခငး)၊ ဇြနလ ၂၇ ရကေန႔တြင ထေထာငခသည ျပညတြငးႏင ႏငငတကာအလပသမားအေရးမား တငၾကားမႈယႏယားတ႔အပါအ၀င ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈျဖစေပၚလာသည နယပယအခ႕ရသည။
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ျပညေျပးေလာ၊ ျပညေတာျပနေလာ - ျမနမာႏငငေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈတြင ျပညပေရာကမား၏ အခနးက႑
Exile or Return? The Diaspora’s Role in Myanmar’s Political Transition
Kerstin Duell, PhD Myanmar Program Manager, Konrad-Adenauer Foundation Singapore
မတဆက ျမနမာႏငင၏ ၀႐နးသနးကားႏငလေသာ ကလနေခတလြနသမငးက လကနကကငတငးရငးသားႏင ၀ါဒသေဘာတရား ေရးဆငရာအၾကြမႈမားမသည လထဆႏၵျပမႈမား၊ ေကာငးသားလႈပရားမႈမားႏင အၾကမးမဖကဒမကေရစလႈပရားမႈမား စသည ႏငငေရးႏးၾကားမႈမားႏငသကဆငေသာ ျဖစရပမားႏင ဆယစႏစမားႏငခေသာ စစတပ၏ တက႐ကေသာ လညးေကာငး၊ သြယ၀ကေသာနညးအားျဖငေသာလညးေကာငး ပသြငးခခရသည။ စးပြားေရးက ႏငငပငျပလပျခငးႏင လြမားေသာစမခန႔ခြမႈ၊ တငးျပညကစစ၀ါဒဇာတသြငးမႈ၊ ႏငငေရးေစာငၾကပ ႏပကြပျခငးႏင တကသလမားပတလကျခငး တ႔ေၾကာင သနးႏငခေသာ ျမနမာမားသည ႏငငရပျခားသ႔ ထြကေျပးခၾကရသည။ ထြကေပါကရာခသည မားစြာေသာ လႈငးမားက (၁) ၁၉၆၂ ခႏစ စစတပအာဏာသမးမႈ၊ (၂) ၁၉၇၀ ျပညႏစမားအလယတြငျဖစပြားခသည ျမနမာဆရယ လစလမးစဥပါတ၏ တက႐ကအပခပမႈႏင ဥးသန႔အေရးအခငး၊ (၃) ၁၉၈၈ လထအၾကြမႈႏင (၄) ၂၀၀၇ လထအၾကြမႈ အသးသးတ႔အျဖစ ခြျခားၾကည႐ႈႏငမညျဖစသည။ ျပညပသ႔အမားဆးထြကေျပးခၾကသညကာလမာ ၁၉၈၈ ေႏာငးပငးႏင ၁၉၉၀ ေရြးေကာကပြအၿပး၌ ေရြးေကာကခအတကအခက အာဏာလႊေပးေရးအား စစတပကမေရမရာျဖင အခနဆြေန သည ကာလအတြငး၌ျဖစသည။ ထ႔ျပင ျပညပေရာကျမနမာမားသည အဓကအားျဖင ပဋပကၡေၾကာငထြကခြာၾကသမား ျဖစသညသာမက လပဂၢလတစဥးခငးအလက ပညာေရးႏင ပေရာဖကရငနယရညမနးခကမားျဖင ထြကခြာၾကသည လညးရၾကသည။ ႏစေပါငး ၂၀ ေကာ အငအားႀကးေသာစစအစးရက ဆန႔ကငသည ခငျမေသာ စနေခၚမႈမားက ေတာကေလာကလပလာခသည ႏငငျဖတေကာဒမကေရစအေရး လႈပရားမႈတစခက မးစေသာ ျပညပေရာကျမနမာ မားအနက လတနးစားတစရပဥးေဆာငကာ ႏငငေရးျပညေျပးမားအျဖစ လႈပရားခၾကသည။ ၂၀၁၁ တြင စတငသည အထက-ေအာက ႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈကျဖစေစသည မားစြာေသာအေၾကာငးတရားမား အနက တကၾကြလႈပရားမႈသည တစခတညးေသာ အေၾကာငးတရား ျဖစေသာလညး ႏငငေရးအေၾကာငးတရားျဖင ျပညပတြငေနထငၾကသမားကမ မခငႏငငႏင ႏငငတကာဆကဆေရးက လႊမးမးမႈျပခသညက အသအမတျပႏင ရမည ျဖစသည။ ျပညတြငးႏငငေရးက ပမာဏတစခအထေတာ အကးသကေရာကမႈရခေပသည။ ေမ ာလငမထားေသာ အစးရ ဥးေဆာငသည ျပ ျပငေျပာငးလေရးလပေဆာငခနတြင ျပညပေရာကႏငငသားမားအား ျပညေတာျပနရနဖတ ေခၚခေသာလညး လၿခစတခရမႈအာမခခကႏင လြတၿငမးခမးသာခြငမားမေပးခဘ ႏငငေရးဆငရာ ျပညေျပးအခ႕ကသာ ျပနေခၚချခငးျဖစသည။ ေလာေလာဆယတြင လကရအစးရ၏ အႀကေပးမားအပါအ၀င သတ႔သည ႏငငေရး-စးပြားေရး ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈတြင ပါ၀ငေနၾကသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျပညေတာျပနလာသမား၏ ကၽြမးကငမႈမားႏင အေတြ႕အႀကမားက တငးျပည၏ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတြင အကးျပႏငမည အေရးႀကးေသာနယပယမားတြင ေယဘယသေဘာတညခကရေနခနတြင ႏငငေရးျပညေျပးမားသည မမတ႔တငးသျပညသားမား၏ ယၾကညမႈကမရျခငးႏငလညး ရငဆငေနရသည။ ျမနမာ ျပျပငျပငေျပာငးလေရးမားတြင ျပညေျပးမား၏ အခနးက႑ႏင စတျပငးျပမႈမားက အကျဖတရာတြင တငးျပညတြငး၌ ကနရခသည တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားၾကား သေဘာထားကြလြမႈရသည။ ႏစေပါငး ၂၀ ေကာ ျပညတြငးႏင ျပညေျပးမား ၾကားကြျပားခသည လႈပရားမႈတစခ၏ အတကအခအပစမားၾကား ရေနသည ပဋပကၡမားရေနခၿပး ျမနမာႏငငအသြင ေျပာငးေရးအတြက
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စေပါငးအားထတမႈတစခအတြငးသ႔ မတညေသာ အေတြ႕အႀကမားေပါငးစညးရန ႀကးပမးခၾက သည။ ျပညေျပးမားအေပၚထားရသည ျပညတြငး တကၾကြလႈပရားသမား၏ သေဘာထား စစစေရး၊ ပညာေရးစနစပကစးမႈ၊ အငတာနကသးစြမႈႏင ICT မရချခငးေၾကာငးျဖစေပၚခသည မမတ႔၏ ေကာငးပညာေရး၊ သအရဆငရာဗဟသတ၊ ႏငငတကာအေတြ႕အႀကႏင အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာစြမးရညမား မရျခငးက ျမနမာတကၾကြ လႈပရားသမားစြာက ေကာငးစြာသတျပခၾကသည။ျမနမာအနာဂတကေဖာေဆာငရာတြင ဒမကရကတစလြတလပမႈ မားႏင အေလအထမား တငးျပည၌ မညသမ အေတြ႕အႀကမရသည အခကကလညး သတ႔ပပနၾကသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင တငးျပညဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးႏင လႈပရားမႈမားအတြက တတသမႈမား၊ ႏငငတကာအေတြ႕အႀကႏင အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာ ကၽြမးကငမႈမားေဆာငကဥးလာသည ျပညေတာျပနျပညေျပး မား၏ ပါ၀ငေဆာငရြကမႈမားက လငယအဖြ႕အစညးမား၏ ကယစား လယမားက အေလးထားၾကသည။ ျပညေျပးမားအေတြ႕အႀကရခသည အေရးႀကးေသာ ေနာကထပနယပယတစခမာ အျခားေသာတငးရငးသား အဖြ႕မားမ လပဂၢလမားႏင အျပနအလနဆကဆေရးျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင တငးရငးသားဆကဆေရးတြင ကြျပားေသာနားလညမႈ တစခရရခသည။ ျပညေျပးျဖစေနစဥ ဗမာမားသည တငးရငးသားလႈပရားမႈအဖြ႕မားႏင ပမနအဆကအသြယရသလ လကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားႏငလညး အဆကအသြယရသည။ NCGUB၊ DAB ႏင NCUB ကသ႔ေသာ အဓကျပညေျပးအပ စမားသည ၁၉၈၈-၁၉၉၀ ၾကား ဒမကေရစအေရးလႈပရားမႈတြင ကရငအမးသား အစညးအ႐း(KNU) ဌာနခပျဖစသည မာနယပေလာတြင သေႏၶတညဖြ႕စညးချခငးျဖစသည။ သကဆငရာသ ပနတပဖြ႕မားကထနးခပထားသည နယေျမမား အတြက ထြကေျပးျခငးသည ေနာကပငးတြင တကၾကြသမားရငသနရပတညေရးအတြက ပငမအေထာကအကျဖစေစခ ၿပး အမနးခငးႏငငမားသ႔ သြားေရာကရာတြငပငအေထာကအကျဖစေစခသည။ ဗမာႏငတငးရငးသားဆကဆေရးသည အဆငေျပေခာေမြ႕ရန အလမးကြာသညတင ဘရညမနးခကပနးတငမားက ေဖာထတျခငးႏင တငးရငးသားအခြင အေရးအေပၚႏငငတကာအျမငမားျဖငထေတြ႕လာျခငးတ႔ေၾကာင အေစာပငးႏစကာလမားတြင ႏစဖကလကခႏငမႈ တးျမငခသည။ ႏငငေရးနယပယကေကာလြနၿပး ႏငငျခားပညာတတဗမာမား၏ တနဖးရေသာ ပညာရပဆငရာကၽြမးကငမႈ ႏင ကၽြမးကငမႈမားမ အကးအျမတရရႏငသည နယပယမားစြာရသည။ ေလာေလာဆယအားျဖင လငယသတငးစာ ဆရာမားက သငတနးေပးျခငးျဖင မဒယာေလာကဖြ႕ၿဖးေရး၊ ဂာနယလစကင၀တမား၏ စမားက သတမတျခငး၊ ျပညတြငးႏင ႏငငတကာမဒယာမားက ခတဆကေပးျခငးႏင တတေျပာရလင ျမနမာဌာေနတငးရငးသားမဒယာမား က ကမၻာလးဆငရာ သတငးကြနရကေျမပေပၚတငေပးျခငးတ႔အတြက ျပညေျပးမဒယာအဖြ႕အစညးမားသည အေျပာငး အလကအေထာကအကေပးသမား ျဖစလာ ႏငၾကသည။ ျပညေတာျပနလာေသာ ျပညေျပးမဒယာမားက အစးရက မကႏာသာေပးပေပၚေသာလညး ၿပငဆငမႈအသစမားက ဆန႔ကငၿပး ျပညေျပးဂာနယလစမားက အမအရေခၚယရန သ႔မဟတ ဖကဆးရနႀကးပမးေနသည ခ႐နမားႏင ၿပငဆငရနလညး လအပေနဆျဖစသည။ တငးျပညတြငးရလႈပရားမႈေခါငးေဆာငမားကလညး သတ႔စေတးၿပးဂဏယခၾကသည လပဂၢလအရအႏရာယႀကး ႀကး မားမားရေသာ တစႏငငလး၌ ေျမေအာကကြနရကမားထားရျခငးႏင ေအာကေျခလထႏင အဆကအသြယျပလပျခငး တ႔ကဆကလကထနးထားလသည။ ျပညေျပးမားသည သတ႔ႏငေခတတ ၈၈ မးဆက ေကာငးသားအဖြ႕၊ ႏငငေရး အကဥးသားမားႏငသာ နးကပေနခၿပး ေအာကေျခလထႏငမနးစပဟ ေ၀ဖနေလရၾကသည။ ျပညေျပးမားသည ႏငင ေရးေခါငးေဆာငမား၊ အဓကသကဆငသမားႏငသာလပကငၾကၿပး ႏငငေရးကစၥမားကသာသးသးသန႔သန႔ဥးမတည သည ကယျပန႔ေသာ အရပဘကလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင လပကငခၾကသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာငျပညေျပးမားသည သာမနျပည သလထ၏ လအပခကမားႏင စတဆႏၵမားက နားလညရနႏင ခဥးကပရန ပကကြကခၾကသညဟ ဆသည။ ယခငက ပနးလးကြယလးလပကငခရသည သဘာ၀ကထညသြငးစဥးစားလင ျပညေျပးမားႏင ေအာကေျခလထၾကား ႏစဖက ထေတြ႕မႈသည
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အကန႔အသတရခသညမာ အၾသစရာမရေပ။ သ႔ေသာလညး အာဏာရငလကေအာကတြငရခသည ႏစကာလမားအတြငး ABSDF ၊ DPNS ႏင FTUB တ႔ကသ႔ေသာ အဖြ႕အစညးမားသည ေအာကေျခလထႏင အေတာ ပငထေတြ႕လပကငျခငးေၾကာင ယငးေ၀ဖနမႈသည ၀ေရာဓမားျဖစေပၚေနသည။ မညသ႔ပငျဖစေစ လထႏငထေရာက စြာလပကငရနႏင ရနပေငြမားက ဥာဏပါပါအသးျပရနအလ႔ငာ ျပညေတာျပနျပညေျပးမားသည ေအာကေျခလထသ႔ ယငးတ႔၏ ခဥးကပမႈက အားစကလပေဆာငရမညသာျဖစသည။ မအပစပေသာ ေမာမနးခကမားေၾကာင ျပညတြငးေနမားႏင ျပနေတာျပနမားၾကား အခတအဆက၏ ေနာကထပပြ င တစခထပျဖစေစခသည။ ဆယစႏစမားႏင ကာလၾကာရညဆငးရႀကးစြာေနခၿပး နစနာခကမားရခေၾကာင ျပညသမား သည အစားအေသာက၊ အမယာ၊ လပစစဓာတအား၊ ပ႔ေဆာငေရး၊ ေျမယာကစၥရပမားႏင အျခားတ႔ကသ႔ ေန႔စဥရပ တညရငသနေရးကစၥမားက တမဟတခငးတးတကသညကျမငေတြ႕လ႔သည အလြနတရာျမငမားေသာ ေမာမနးခက မားရၾကသညက ျပညတြငးတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားက ေကာငးစြာသတျပမၾကသည။ ျပညေျပးမားတြငလညး ယငးသ႔ အရတရားမဆနေသာ ေမာလငခကခကမားကပငစြကငထားပရၿပး ေနစဥဒကၡမားအထြက အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာအေျခခ ကေသာအေျပာငးအလမားက ျမငလၾကသည။ ဒမကေရစခငမာစြာအျမစတြယေသာ စကမႈႏငငမားတြင ရရခၾကသည ပညာေရးႏင အေတြ႕အႀကတစခႏငအတ ျပညေျပးမားသည သတ႔သြားေရာကေနထငခရာႏငငမားရ ႏငငေရးလြတလပ မႈမားႏငယဥၿပး ျမနမာႏငငက တငးတာလၾကသည။ အျခားတစဖကတြင ယငးသ႔ေသာ ႏႈငးယဥမႈမားေၾကာင အခ႕ ေသာ ျပညေျပးမားသည လကရအေျခအေနမာမညသ႔ဖယရားခခရျခငးက ႐းရငးစြာပငထငဟပျပေနသည။ ေနာကတစ ဖကတြင အလးစျပည၀ေသာ ဒမကေရစေမာမနးခကသည တငးျပည၏ အနာဂတတြငျပလပမညျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမား ကေမာငးႏငမညေသာခကတစချဖစၿပး အေစာပငးအဆငတြငပငပကသနးသြားမညအေျခအေနမာ အကာအကြယေပး ထားသည။ ႏစေပါငး ၂၀ ၾကာအေျခတညခေသာ မေကခမးမႈမားသည ျပညတြငးႏင ျပညေျပးလႈပရားမႈမားၾကားရေနသည ဆကဆ ေရးမားက ဆကလက႐ကခတေနဥးမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရ တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားသည မမတ႔ကယက တကယ အာဇာနညမားႏင အလြနအေရးပါသညပေလယာမားအျဖစ အျမမတယထားၾကၿပး ျပညေျပးမားသည လၿခမႈႏင အသး အေဆာငေကာငးမားတြင ေနလသညအေခာငသမားအျဖစ ဒဂရအမးမးျဖင ပေဖာၾကသည။ တငးျပည၏ႏငငေရးတး တကမႈအေပၚ အမနတကယေကးဇးရျခငးထကေကာလြနၿပး မညသညတြငပါ၀ါရသလဆသညမာ အေရးကစၥ၏ ပငမ ျဖစေနမည ေမးခြနးျဖစသည။ ၂၀၀၇ တနးကဆလင ၈၈ မးဆကေကာငးသားမားအဖြ႕မ အခ႕ေသာႏငငေရးအကဥး သားေဟာငးအခ႕က အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလတြင ျပညေတာျပနလာသည ျပညေျပးမားက ႏငငေရးေနရာမား မေပး လၾကသညဆႏၵရခၾကသည။ ျပညေတာျပနလာၾကသမားသည တငးျပညအကးအတြကေလာ၊ မမကယကး အတြကေလာဆသညက ျပညတြငးေနသမားက ၂၀၁၂ အထ ေမးခြနးထတၾကဆျဖစသည။ “သတ႔အကးစးပြားအတြက သတ႔ျပနလာၾကတာလား၊ တငးျပညက တကယကညခငလ႔ျပနလာၾကတာလားဆတ သတ႔ရ႕သေဘာထားက သဖ႔ အတြက ျပညေျပးေတြက ကၽြနေတာတ႔ ျပနေခၚဖ႔လအပပါတယ” လ႔ ျမနမာလငယမားအစညး႐း၀င တစေယာကက ရငး ျပခသည။ ျပနလာၾကသမားသည ကယျပန႔ေသာျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားကျပလပရန အလြနတရာျမႇပႏၿပး ျပနလာၾကျခငး ျဖစသည၊ ထ႔ေၾကာင မတညေသာ အပစမားႏင ပါတမားစြာႏင တကတကၾကြၾကြလပကငေဆာငရြကေနျခငးျဖစသည ဟ၍ ယငးအျမငႏငမတေသာယၾကညမႈမားလညးရသည။ အတတကာလျပညေျပးလပငနးမားႏငပကသကေသာ ပဋပကၡမားလညးရေနၾကသည။ ပ႐ဂရမမား၏ သေဘာသဘာ၀ ႏင ထေရာကမႈမား၊ ျပညေျပးမားကေပးသည ရနပေငြမားအသးျပမႈႏငပတသက၍ ျဖစသည။ ျပညေျပးလႈပရားမႈမား၏ အတြငးေရးျပနာအခ႕မာ ရနပေငြအတြက ၿပငဆငၾကရာမာႀကးထြားလာျခငးျဖစၿပး ယခအခါတြင ျပညေျပးမားႏင ျပညတြငးၾကြလႈပရားသမားၾကား အပစမားကြထြကေနျခငးမာလညး အထငႏငအျမငတစျခားစျဖစေနသည။
208
လကရအခနတြင အလ ရငမား၏ ဧဂငဒါမားေျပာငးလမႈႏင ယငးတ႔၏ ဂယက႐ကခတမႈမား ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးလပငနးမားသည အလရငမားအတြက လႈငးဂယကမားက တျဖညးျဖညးေျပာငးလေစခသည။ ျမန မာႏငငတြငး လမား၊ အရငးအႏးမားႏင သတငးအခကအလကမားစး၀ငမႈသည ႐တျခညးတးပြားခသည။ ႏငငတကာ အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈအမားစ ဆငးငလကျခငးသည အစးရသစႏင ပမန ႏစဖကၾကားႏင ႏငငစသေဘာတညခကမား အတြက လမးေပါကေစခသည။ ျမနမာဒကၡသညမား၊ IDP၊ ေဒသတြငးရ ေရႊ႕ေျပာငးလပသားမားက သမငးႏငခၿပး ေထာကပခသလ ျပညေျပးမားကေထာကပခသည အခ႕ေသာအဖြ႕အစညးမားအပါအ၀င အစးရ မဟတေသာ ႏငငတကာဖြ႕အစညးမားသည မမတ႔၏စမကနးမားက ေဆာငရြကရနႏငငတြငးသ႔ ၀ငလကရၾကသည။ ႏငငေရး အဖြ႕ အစညမား၏ အလရငမားၾကား မားစြာေသာတ႐ခကလမးေၾကာငးမားက ေစာငၾကညေလလာႏငသည။ ပထမတ႐ခကမာ ျပညေျပးလႈပရားမႈမား၏ အစဥအလာအလ ရငမားသည တငးျပညတြငး၏ စမကနးမားကေထာကပ ရန သတ႔၏ဥးတညခကကေရႊ႕ခၾကၿပး ယငးတ႔ေထာကပသညအဖြ႕အစညးမားမာ အသစတညေထာငထားေသာ အဖြ႕ အစညးမား သ႔မဟတ ျပညေတာျပနျပညေျပးမားက လပကငေနေသာ အဖြ႕အစညးမားျဖစၾကသည။ ဒတယတ႐ခကမာ အမးမးေသာအလရငမား၊ ႏငငေရးပါတမား၊ လႊတေတာမားႏင ပါတစစနစက ေထာကပသည ႏငငတကာႏင ႏငငစအဖြ႕မားသည သတ႔၏ျမနမာႏငငအထးျပစမကနးမားႏင ၀နထမးမားက ထေထာငျခငး သ႔မ ဟတ ခ႕ထြငျခငးမားလပေဆာငလကရၾကသည။ တတတတ႐ခကမာ ျပညေျပးမားႏင နယျခားဖကေကာစမကနးမားအား ရနပေငြေပးမႈေလာနညး လာျခငးျဖစသည။ ႏစေပါငး ၂၀ ေကာၾကာ ျပညေျပးလႈပရားမႈမား၏ အဓကအလရငမားျဖစၾကေသာ National Endowment for Democracy၊ Soros ႏင International Republican Institute တ႔သည အခ႕ေသာ လပငနးမားက ဆကလကေထာက ပေသာလညး အခ႕ေထာကပမႈမားသည ၂၀၁၅ မတငမအၿပးသတမညျဖစသည။ သတ႔သကဆငရာအစးရမားဖအားက ခရေသာေၾကာငလညး အလရငမားသည ျမနမာႏငငတြငးအသ႔ အေျပးအလႊား ေရာကလာၾကသည။ ယငးသ႔ အလင အျမနေျပာငးျခငးႏင “အလရငလကပနးကမႈ” တ႔ေၾကာင နယျခားေဒသႏင အမ နးခငးႏငငမားရ ျပနလာရနမေသခာ ေသာ အသငးအ၀ငးမားရ IDPs ႏင ဒကၡသညမားက ေပးေနသည လသားခငး စာနာေထာကထားေရးဆငရာ အက အညမားက ဆးကးျဖစေစခသည။ စတတႏင ဆကစပေနေသာ တ႐ခကမာ ေလာညမႈရေစရန ျပညေျပးအဖြ႕အစညးမားသည မမတ႔ကယက ျပနလညပ ေဖာရန လအပျခငးျခငးျဖစသည။ တစဖကတြင ျဖစေပၚေနေသာႏငငေရးပြငလငးမႈေၾကာင ျပညေျပးဘ၀တြငဆကလက ေနရသညဆေသာ အဆကပကစးေစသည။ တကယတမးအားျဖငလညး ျပညေျပးအစးရ NCGUB သည ၂၁ ႏစၾကာၿပး ေနာက ၂၀၁၂ စကတငဘာတြင ဖကသမးခသည။ လႊတေတာတြငေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညပါ၀ငလာျခငးႏင အျခားတး တကမႈမားႏငအတ NCGUB သည ဆကလကတညရစရာအေၾကာငးမရေတာသညအျပင အဖြ႕၏ ရနပေငြကလညး လြန ခသညငါးႏစက ရရခသညထက ေလးပတစပသ႔ေလာခလကသည။ အျခားတစဖကတြငမ ျမနမာႏငငရ မေျပာငးလ ေသာျပနာမား၊ ခးေဖာကမႈမား၊ လြတလပမႈကကန႔သတမႈမားက လ႔အခြငအေရးအပစမားက ဆကလကေဖာထတ ၾကသည။ ျပညေျပးအဖြ႕အစညးမားအတြက ျဖစႏငဖြယရသည ေနာကဆးအခနးက႑မာ တးတကမႈမားသည အစစ အမနဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငမႈ၊ တရားဥပေဒစးမးမႈႏင လ႔အခြငအေရးေလးစားလကနာမႈမားဆသ႔ဥးေနသေလာဆသည က ၾကားကာလတြင ဆကလကေစာငၾကညရနျဖစသည။
209
သေဘာထားအျမင တငးျပည၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈနမကမႈ၊ လသားခငးစာနာေထာကထားေရးႏင ႏငငေရးဆငရာအကပအတညးသည ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသ မား၊ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအကအညမား၊ လသားခငးစာနာေထာကထားေရးအကအညမား အေျပးအလႊားလာေရာကရမညေနရာ ျဖစေစသလ ႏငငေရးပ႐ဂရမမား၏ အလရငမားအတြကလညး ထနညးတပငျဖစသည။ အလရငမားႏင လကခသမားၾကား၊ ျပညေျပးမားႏင ျပညတြငးေနသမားၾကား၊ ျပညတြငးအေျခကၿပးသမားႏင အသစ ၀ငလာသည အဖြ႕အစညးမားၾကား ပါ၀ါခြေ၀မႈမညမ ျခငးသည ဆကဆေရးမားႏင မခမႈမား၏ ႐ႈပေထြးလေသာ ပငက အမသဖြယျဖစေစခသည။ ထ႔ျပင ရငးျမစမား႐တတရကႀကးရလာျခငးကလညး ဗမာႏငငေရးအဖြ႕အစညးမား မႈေပါက သလေပါကလာေစခသည။ ယငးတ႔ေသာ အေၾကာငးမားေၾကာင ေနာကဆးတြင မမတ႔သည ပမလပေဆာငရနႏင ပမ ပြငလငးရနလပေဆာငလာႏငၾကသညဟ တကၾကြလႈပရားသမားကခစားၾကၿပး အထးသျဖင ၂၀၁၅ တြငကငးပမည အေထြေထြေရြးေကာကပြအတြက အားလးကျပငဆငလာၾကျခငးပငျဖစသည။ အစစအမနအားထတမႈမား ရလငကစား အခ႕ေသာ အဖြ႕အစညးမားက အသး၀ငမညပ႐ဂရမမားအမနတကယမရေသာဘ အခ႕ရနပေငြမားက ကယရန အျမန ေထာငထားၾကပလညးရေနသည။ အနညးငယသာျပနလာၾကေသာ ျပညေျပးမားသည တငးျပညတြင အဓကႏငငေရး အကတာမားျဖစ ၾကသည အစးရ ႏငလႊတေတာမား၊ ႏငငေရးပါတမား၊ လႈပရားမႈႏငဆကစပသည အပစမား၏ ေခါငးေဆာငမား၏ စြမး ေဆာငရညတညေဆာကေရးအေပၚသာ ယခအခနအထ အာ႐စကေနၾကသည။ ရလဒအားျဖင နာမညေကာအတကအခမားသည သမၼတ၏ အၾကေပးအဖြ႕၊ MDRI ပညာရငအဖြ႕တြငပါ၀ငျခငးျပသလ ေလာေလာဆယတြင ဗဒၶဘာသာ၀ငမားႏငမြတ စလငဘာသာ၀ငမားၾကား အပစလကအၾကမးဖကမႈ သ႔မဟတ လကပေတာငးေၾကးနစမကနး၌ ဆႏၵျပသမားအေပၚ လၿခေရးတပဖြ႕၀ငမား၏ျပမႈခပတ႔က စစမးစစေဆးရန အထးေကာမရငမားတြငလညးပါ၀ငလာၾကသည။ သ႔ေသာ တတသပညာမားလႊေျပာငးေပးပ႔မႈသည တစဖကသတျဖစစဥအျဖစသာျမငေတြ႕ေနရသည။ ယခေဆြးေႏြးမႈတြင မပါရ ေသးသည နယပယမာ ျပညပမျပနလာၾကသမားသည ႏငငတြငးရျပညသမားထမ သငယႏငသေလာဆသညပင ျဖစသည။ ႏငငေရးျပညေျပးမားအပါအ၀င ျပညပေရာကေနသအားလးအတြက အသးျပႏငမည စနစကၿပးပြငလငးျမငသာမႈရေသာ ႏငငလးဆငရာမ၀ါဒမရျခငးသည ေျဖရငးရမည ေသာခကကေသာကစၥရပတစအျဖစရေနေသးသည။ သမၼတဥးသနးစန ၏ ႏႈတအားျဖငဖတၾကားမႈက ဥပေဒပငးဆငရာေသခာမႈတစခအျဖစအနကမေေကာကႏငေသးသညအတြက ျပနလာလ သည ျပညေျပးအမားစမာ တြန႔ဆတေနၾကသည။ ျပညပေရာကမမႏငငသားမား၏ ကၽြမးကငမႈမားႏင သကဆငရာ ပညာရပနယပယကၽြမးကငမႈမားမ တငးျပညအတြက အျပညအ၀ကးျဖစေစရန ျပညေျပးတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားအား လြတၿငမးခမးသာခြငျပျခငးႏငအတ မမ၏ႏငငေရးဆႏၵက အစးရကထတေဖာျပသရနလအပသည။
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ျမနမာႏငငတ ြင အသြငကးေျပာငးေရး တရားမတမႈ-အျခားနညးလမးတစရပက သးစြျခငး Transitional Justice in Myanmar: Assessing the Alternatives
Mung Don
University of Hong Kong [email protected]
အာဏာပင၀ါဒ(သ႔မဟတ)စစအစးရအပခပမႈမ ဒမကေရစအစးရသ႔ ႏငငေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးၿပးေနာက ဖႏပေသာ ယခငအစးရ ေဟာငး၏လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈအ၀၀က ေျဖရငးရန အသြငကးေျပာငးေရး တ႐ားမတမႈေဖာေဆာငေလရ ၾကသည။ ေနာကေၾကာငးျပနတ႐ားစရငေရး၊ ျပခသမအတြက အစားျပနေပးျခငး၊ အမနတရားေကာမရင၊ အထမးအမတမား ေဖာေဆာငျခငး၊ လမးအသားအေရာငမတညသမားအဖအႏပခရျခငးက ေကာလႊားေရးကငစဥ၊အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာ ျပေျပာငးလေရး (စစစေရးျဖစစဥႏင အျခားလပေဆာငမႈမားကသ႔ မားစြာေသာ ေဆာငရြကမႈမားက တရားမတမႈ၊ တာ၀နခမႈ၊ အမးသား ျပနလညေသြးစညးညညႊတမႈ၊ ၿငမးခမးေရးႏင ႏငငေရးတညၿငမမႈရရေအာငျပလပၾကျခငးျဖစသည) အသြငကးေျပာငးေရး ကာလတရားမတမႈက မားစြာေသာ လ႔အခြငအေရးတကၾကြလႈပရားသမား၊ ျပညတြငးႏင အျပညျပညဆငရာ လ႔အခြငအေရး အဖြ႕အစညးမား၊ ျမနမာႏငငတြင လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈအ၀၀က ခစားခရသမားအားလးက ေဖာေဆာငၾကျခငးျဖစ သည။ ၿပးခသည ဆယစႏစႏစခက လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈမားက ေျဖရငးရန အမးမးေသာ နညးလမးမားတြင ျမနမာ ႏငင၏ ေျမာကျမားစြာေသာအသြငကးေျပာငးကာလ၊ တရားမတမႈဆငရာ စာေပမားျဖင ေဆြးေႏြးခၾကသည။ ဟားဗကဥပေဒေကာငးမ ႏငငတကာလ႔အခြငအေရးကစားေရးအဖြ႕က ျမနမာႏငငအေရ႕ပငးတြင မားစြာေသာအစးရမဟတ သညလကနကကငအဖြ႕မားႏင တပမေတာတ႔ၾကား ျဖစပြားခသညလကနကကငပဋပကၡမား၏ လ႔အခြငခးေဖာကမႈမားက ေလလာခၾကသည။ ေလလာမႈအရ ယငးတ႔သညစစရာဇ၀တမႈမား၊ လသားအေပၚကးလြနသည ရာဇ၀တမႈမားႏင အျခား လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈအ၀၀တ႔ျဖစၾကသညဟ ေကာကခကခထားသည။ ႏငငေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈကာလတြင အတတကာလက ဆးရြားဆး ခးေဖာကမႈမား၏တာ၀နခမႈ၊ တရားမတမႈႏင အမနတရားတ႔က ရာေဖြရနအသြငကးေျပာငးေရး ကာလ တရားမတမႈလပငနးမားက ျမနမာႏငငဆငရာ လ႔အခြငအေရးအထးကယစားလယ Tomas Ojea Quintana က ကလသမဂၢလ႔အခြငအေရးေကာငစသ႔ မၾကာေသးမက အႀကျပခသည။ သ၏ လပပငခြငအရ အတတကာလ လ႔အခြငအေရး နစနာခကမားက ေျဖရငးမည ဥပေဒတစရပျပၾကရနလကရ လႊတေတာအမတမားက သက တြနးအားေပးခသည။ အသြင ကးေျပာငးေရးကာလတရားမတမႈ၊ အမးသားေရးလပငနးစဥက Iam Holliday က Burma Redux စာအပတြင အကဥးမ ေဆြးေႏြးခသည ၂၀၁၂ခႏစျမနမာကြနးဖရန႔တြင သ၏တငျပေဆြးေႏြးမႈ၌ အတတကာလခးေဖာကမႈမားက ေျဖရငးရာတြင အသးျပရမည ေဒသဆငရာ (သ႔)ႏငငေတာအဆငခညးကပနညးမားက အႀကျပခသည။ ၂၀၁၀ေရြးေကာကပြကာလ ျမနမာႏငင၏ စစမးေရးေကာမရငတစရပ ထေထာငေရးက ျပညတြငးႏင ျပညပရလ႔အခြငအေရးတကၾကြလႈပရားသ မားႏင အဖြ႕အစညးမားက ႏစေပါငးမားစြာ
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လႈပရားမႈမားျပလပၿပးေတာငးဆခၾကသည။ အရပသားအစးရဟ ေခၚဆရမညေရြး ေကာကအစးရသစႏင အေမရကနျပညေထာငစက ထေတြ႕ဆကဆေရး မ၀ါဒက စတငကငသးကတညးက အသြငကးေျပာငး ေရးကာလ တရားမတမႈအတြက ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငး၏ ေထာကခမႈႏင ဖအားမား သသသာသာေလာကခသည။ အေမရကနႏင အခ႕ေသာဥေရာပႏငငမားသည ၎တ႔၏ ႏငငေရးထေတြ႕မႈက ေကာလြနကာ စစေရးဆကဆမႈႏငစးပြားေရး လပငနး ရငးႏးျမပႏမားအထ ေရာကခၾကသည။ လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈအ၀၀အား ကးလြနခၾကသမားက အျပညျပည ဆငရာ ရာဇ၀တမႈတရား႐းႏင အျခားႏငငတကာ ယာယရာဇ၀တမႈအခြန႐းမားသ႔ ပ႔ေဆာငေရးျဖစႏငဖြယမာ လတတေလာ ႏငငေရးအခငးအကငးအရ အလြနနမေနသည။ စစေရးအရ ကးလြနခသမားက အျပစေပးျခငးေၾကာင စစတပက အမားစ လႊမးမးထားသည အစးရက ေဖာေဆာငေနေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးလပငနးစဥမားအေပၚ အႏတလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာ သကေရာကမႈမား ျဖစေပၚမညက အခ႕ေသာ ဒမကရကတစ အတကအခပါတမားက ပပနၾကသည။ ကယစားလယေပါငး ရာခငႏႈနး(၈၀)ေကာရသည ျပညခငၿဖးႏင စစတပကယစားလယမားကမ အတတကာလ လ႔အခြင အေရးခးေဖာကမႈမားက ေျဖရငးရန(သ႔)လြနခသည ဆယစႏစမားက ေျဖရငးရန(သ႔)လြနခသည ဆယစႏစႏစခတြင စစအစးရက ျပလပခသမအားလးက လြတၿငမးခမးသာခြငျပထားသည ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပ၏အပဒ၄၄၅ ကျပငဆငရနဥပေဒ တစခခက ျပ႒ာနးၾကလမမညမဟတေပ။ ျမနမာႏငငေရးတြင ပါ၀ါအရဆးႏင လႊမးမးမႈအရဆး အငစတကးရငးျဖစသည စစတပသည ထပပငးစစတပေခါငးေဆာငမားက အျပစေပးသည လပေဆာငမႈက ကာကြယသြားလမမညျဖစသည။ အမးသားအသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလဆငရာ တရားမတမႈ အျပညအ၀ေဖာေဆာငမႈလပငနးတစရပရပသည ျဖစလာႏငဖြယရာ မျမငေပ။ အျခားေသာနညးလမးျဖင ကငတ ြယျခငး ေနာကေၾကာငးျပန တရားစရငေရးအတြက လႈ႔ေဆာမႈသည အတတကာလ၏ အမတတရမားတျဖညးျဖညးလြငျပယျခငးႏင အတ နမကလာသညဟ Jon Elster ကယဆခသည။ ဒတယကမၻာစစၿပးေနာက ဂာမန၏တရားခြငမားအေပၚ သ၏သေတသနတြင တရားစြဆျခငးမား၊ ၿပးခသညႏစတြင ႐ပသမးခသညဟ ေရးသားခသည။ ပဋပကၡ(ခးေဖာကျခငးႏင အသြငကး ေျပာငးမႈဆငရာ တရားမတမႈလပငနးၾကားကြာဟခကသည မညသညလပငနးက ေဖာေဆာငရမညဟ ဆးျဖတျခငးျဖစ သည) ႏငငတကာႏင ႏငငအတြငးရ သကဆငသမားႏင ႏငငေရးဆႏၵမရမႈေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငင၏ႏငငေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈ ကာလဆငရာ တရားမတမႈက မညသညအခနတြင စတငမညနညးဟ ေမးခြနးထြကေပၚလာခသည။ လကတေလာအခနတြင ႏငငတကာႏင ႏငငဆငရာ အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈကာလ တရားမတမႈသည မားစြာေသာ စနေခၚမႈမားေၾကာင အကန႔အသတ ျဖစေနခနတြင ေဒသဆငရာ (သ႔)ႏငငဆငရာအဆငတြငအတတကာလ၏ လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈလပငနးမားက ေျဖရငး ေရးလပငနးမားမာ အလားအလာေကာငးမြနရေနသည။ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒ အခနး၄၄၅တြငျပ႒ာနးထားသည လြတၿငမး ခမးသာခြငသည ၂၀၁၀ေနာကပငးစစတပကးလြနသည လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈ ျပစဒဏမားက အကာအကြယ မေပး ျခငး ဖြ႕စညပအေျခခဥပေဒမားခးေဖာကမႈတစခခမ လ႔အခြငအေရးက အာမခေပးထားၿပး ခးေဖာကသမားက ျပညတြငး တရားစရငမႈေအာကတြင တရားစြဆႏငသည။ ႏငင၏ အျမငဆးျဖစၿပးစစေရးဆငရာ တရားစရငမႈမားမရသည တရား႐းခပကသ႔ေသာ စနေခၚမႈမားက ထညသြငးစဥးစား ျခငးမရလင ကာကြယေရးဥးစးခပသည စစခ႐းေနာကဆးတရား ေရးဆငရာ အာဏာပငျဖစသည။ လကရ ျပညတြငးတရားေရးစနစတြင အတတကာလ လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈမားက တရားစြခြငမ စစတပအဖြ႕အစညးမားအား ကငးလြတခြငေပးထားသည။
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ကခငျပညနယႏင ရမးျပညနယေျမာကပငးတ႔တြင မၾကာေသးမက ျဖစပြားခသည လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈမားသည ျမနမာႏငငသားမား၏ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒက ေပးထားေသာ အခြငအေရးႏင တညဆျပညတြငးဥပေဒမားက ခးေဖာက ျခငးမားျဖစၾကသည။ ယငးသ႔ေသာ ခးေဖာကမႈမားက တရားစြဆျခငးသည ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒတြငကငးလြတခြငျပထား ေသာအပဒႏင အရပဘကတရား႐း(သ႔)စစဘကတရား႐းက ၀ငေရာကစြကဖကခြင ျပရမညမဟတ၊ယငးတရားစြဆျခငးသည ကငးလြတခြငႏငေပာပကေနေသာ စစတပအား တကခကရာတြင သကေရာကလမမညျဖစသည။ ထသ႔ ရညမနးခကႀကး ေသာတရားေရးဆငရာလပငနးသည ခစားရသမားအေပၚ အႏႈတလကၡဏာေဆာငေသာအကးဆကမားေရာငရားႏငရန ေျပာငးလြယျပငလြယျဖစေသာ မဟာဗဟာတစရပလအပသည။ ယငးသ႔ေသာ တရားစြဆမႈက ကခငျပညနယတြင စစေထာကလမးေရးက လကနကကငပဋပကၡတြင ဥပေဒမ ထနးသမးခရသညသမားအတြက ေဆာငရြကၿပးျဖစသည။ ထနးသမးခရသမားသည အမညမသထနးသမးေရးစငတာမား၌ ႏမစကျခငးမ ကငးလြတခၿပး ယငးတ႔အားၿမ႕နယႏငခ႐င တရား႐းမားသ႔ ေခၚေဆာငခရသည။ ကငးလြတခြငသည တ႐ားဥပေဒစးမးေရးႏင ဒမကရကတစလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးအတြက ျပငးထနေသာ ၿခမးေျခာကမႈမားျဖစေပၚေစၿပး ႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈလပငနးစဥမားက အေႏာကအယကျဖစေစသည။ တရားစရငေရး ယႏယားမားကလညးစစတပႏင အပခပေရးအာဏာပငမားက ေကာငးေကာငးႀကးလႊမးမးထားဆ ျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး တရားေရးစနစ၏ အဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး လအပခကႏင အထနးႏငအဓ ကႏယားက လအပခကက အဆပါက တရားစြဆမႈက ေဖာထတျပခသည။ မၾကာေသးမက ျဖစပြားခသည လ႔အခြင အေရးခးေဖာကခရမႈမားက ဥးတည ျခငး၏ေနာကထပအားသာခကမာ လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈအမားစက ေကာငးမြနစြာ ေရးသားထတေ၀ မတတမးတငၿပး ႐ပသသ႔မဟတ အသသြငးထားၾကျခငးျဖစသည။ ႏငငတကာ အသငးအ၀ငးသည ပဋပကၡ၏အစအလကအၿပလကသတ ျဖတမႈႏင ပတသကၿပး ျပညစစြာသရခၾကသည။ အခ႕ေသာ ခးေဖာကခရသမား၊ ၎တ႔၏ေဆြမးမားႏင မသားစ၀ငမား၊ သကေသမားႏင ကးလြနၾကသမားမာ အသကရငလကရေနၾကျခငးျဖစသည။ သကေသအေထာကအထားမားက အလြယ တကပင ရာေဖြႏငသည။ ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒက ျပ႒ာနးထားသည ကငးလြတခြငသညအစးရသစမတကမႏင ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒအာဏာမသကေရာကမကးလြနခေသာ ခးေဖာကမႈမားျဖစေသာေၾကာင ကရငျပညနယ၊ ရမး ျပညနယႏင ျမနမာႏငင၏ အေရ႕ပငးေဒသတ႔တြင လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈမားအထ အကး၀ငသည။ ကခငျပညနယ၏ ျပညနယဆငရာ လပေဆာငမႈမားမာ အသြငးကးေျပာငးေရးကာလဆငရာ တ႐ားမတမႈအတြက အလြနတရာတစခတညး ျဖစသည။ အခနကကလညးျဖစသည။ အစးရက ေဖာေဆာငေနေသာ လကရျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ၊ ႏငငတကာ အသငးအ၀ငး၊ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ အကးစး ပြားႏင ႏငငေရး အာ႐စကမႈတ႔သည ေသးငယၿပးေဒသဆငရာအရ အခနကကျဖစသည အသြငးကးေျပာငး မႈကာလဆငရာ တရားမတမႈစတင ကငတြယရနအတြက အဆငေျပသညအခငးအကငးျဖစပရသည။ အျခား ေသာနညးလမး၏နယပယႏင လပပငခြငတ႔သည အကန႔အသတရေသာလညး အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈကာလ ဆငရာ ႏငငလးအဆငေဖာေဆာငမႈအတြက နမနာပစတစချဖစကာ ပဋပကၡဆငရာ စက၀ငးက အဆးသတ ရနလအပျခငးလညးျဖစေၾကာငးေဖာျပျခငးျဖစသည။ယခငျဖစရပမားကအေျခခ ၿပး အျခားေသာနညးလမးမ လပေဆာငမႈသည ႏငငတကာရာဇ၀တဆငရာယာယခ႐းမား၊ ေပါငးစပတရား႐းမားက ေဆာငရြက ခသည ေနာကေၾကာငးျပန တရားစရငမႈကသ႔ေသာအဖြ႕အစညးဆငရာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ(သ႔)ႏငငေရးအသြငကး ေျပာငးမႈ အေပၚသကေရာကမႈရေကာငးမ ရႏငမညျဖစသလ(သ႔မဟတ)သသာေသာအကးဆကရေကာငးမ ရႏငမည။ သ႔ေသာလညးယငးသ႔ေသာေဆာငရြကမႈတစခသည ပမကယျပန႔ေသာ ႏငငလးအဆငအသြငကး
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ေျပာငးေရးကာလဆငရာ တရားမတမႈ ဆသ႔ ဥးတညေနသည။ ျပညေထာငစအစးရႏင ျပညနယအစးရမား အား ကနဥးေဆာၾသစညး႐းရမညလပငနးမာ ခးေဖာကမႈ မားႏင လကနကကငပဋပကၡမားက ခစားခရသမား၏ ျပနလညထေထာငေရးႏင အစားေလာေပးျခငးအတြကျဖစသည။
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ယဥေကးမႈလ႔မလငမား - အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးတြငဟစေဟာဂတ၏ေနရာ
Cultural Elite: Situating Hip Hop in the Transition
Jacqueline Menager Australian National University
၂၀၁၀ ေရြးေကာကပြမတငမကတညးက “အခမ ဘာေၾကာငျဖစရတာလ” ဆသည ေမးခြနးက ရၿပးျဖစသည။ ယငး အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈ၏ မကႏာစာမားစြာက လြနခသညႏစရကအတြငး ကၽြႏတ႔ၾကားခရၿပးျဖစကာ ကၽြနမက ေနာက တစခက ထပျဖညလပါသည။ ယငးကား မးဆကအေျပာငးအလပငျဖစသည။ လငယမားသည အေျခခလေနမႈ အဆငအတနးသာရသည တငးျပညတစခတြင ရငသနႀကးျပငးခရၿပး တကသလပညာသငၾကားရနႏင အားလပရက ခရးထြကတတၾကသည ႏငငမားမ လငယမားထက အခြငအလမးမားနညးပါးခၾကသည။ လကရ အေျပာငးအလ တြငလငယမား၏ အခနးက႑ကခနလပထားရနမျဖစႏငေပ။ သတ႔သညအေျပာငးအလအတြကအငအားျဖစသလ အနာဂတ၏ ေခါငးေဆာငမားလညး ျဖစၾကသည။ စးပြားေရးႏင ႏငငေရး အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈသာမက လမႈေရး အေျပာငးအလကလညး ထညသြငးတြကခကရမညျဖစသည။ လငယမားသည မမတ႔တငးျပညထမ ပမၿပး ေမာ လငလာခၾကၿပျဖစသည။ လ႔မလငဆေသာ အယအဆသည ျမနမာႏငငရ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ ေလလာမႈအတြက ဆကစပေနေသာ အေၾကာငး အရာျဖစၿပး အဆးအျဖတေပးႏငသည အရာလညးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရ ႏငငေရးအထကတနးလႊာမားႏင စးပြား ေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈဆငရာ သေဘာတရားမားက ကၽြနမ တ႔ေဆြးေႏြးၾကစဥ အဆပါအကတာမားႏင သတ႔၏ လပေဆာငခကမားသည ပမကယျပန႔ေသာ လအဖြ႕အစညးတစရပႏငခတဆကမႈရ မလြမေသြရေနသညဟကၽြနမ ထငျမငသည။ ဟစေဟာဂတသမားမား၏လႊမးမးမႈကလညး ထညသြငးစဥးစားရနလအပၿပး စစအပခပမႈရခသည တငးျပည အျဖစမ ျပငပကမၻာက ၾကညတတသည အေရာငအေသြးစလမားအျဖစ လကရအေျပာငးအလတြင ယငးတ႔သည အေထာကအပႏင ေမာငးႏငအားမားျဖစခၾကသည။ ဟစေဟာသည ျမနမာႏငငတြင လႀကကအမားဆးဂတအျဖစ အလငအျမနျဖစထြနးလာေနသည။ မေ၀းလေသာ အတတကာလ တြင ေရာခဂတတး၀ငးမား အထးသျဖင Iron Cross ႏင Rဇာနညတ႔က အထငအရားလႊမးမးထား သညတငအနာဂတတြငဟစေဟာေခတစားမညလမးစမား ယခငကပငရခၿပးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရ ေပၚျပလာဂတ ႏင ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာ အ၀နးအ၀ငးသည အေျပာငးအလ၏ အေရးပါေသာ ေမာငးႏငအားႏင လပေဆာငမႈတစခ ျဖစသည။ ဂတသည လမႈေရး ဆငရာ အရတရားႏင တနဖးမားကထတေဖာျပသရနအတြက စျပၾကားခတစခ ျဖစသညသာမက ပေနျမကားေနျမအေန အထားက စနေခၚမည အလားအလာလညးရသည။ ယခစာတမးတြင ႏငငေရးဂတမားအေၾကာငးကသာ ေျပာဆသြား မညမဟတဘ လအမားေပၚ အဓကအားျဖင ယေန႔ေခတလငယမား အေပၚ ဖႏပေနၿပး ေခတမမေတာသည တစစတစ ရာေသာ ကယကငသလမားႏင လမႈေရးအေလအထမားက စနေခၚသညဂတမားက ပမအေရးတယထညသြငးေဆြးေႏြးသြားမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရဟစေဟာျမငကြငးကအကျဖတခနတြင ဂတသမားအမးအစားသးမး သသသာသာကြျပားေနသညက ေတြ႕ရရမညျဖစသည။ပထမအမးအစားမာခမးသာေသာမဘမားမဆငးသကလာၿပးေကာၾကားလသည လငယမား ျဖစၾကသည။ပါရမရေသာဂတပညာရငမားေရးသားထတလပေပးသညအေခာသတသခငးမားျဖငသတ႔၏ မေရရာ ေသာဂတပါရမက သတ႔မသားစေငြမားျဖင စမးသပၾကၿပး ေငြကနေၾကးကႀကးမားမားကခ႐ကကးထားေသာ ဓာတပ မားျဖင ဗနးေပါလေအာေၾကာျငာၿပး အခကအျခာေနရာမားတြင ေဖာေျဖပြမားျပလပရန ေငြကသးစြၾကသည။ ဒတယအမးအစားမာ ပါရမရေသာ အႏပညာရငမားျဖစေသာလညး ေငြေၾကးမၾကြယ၀သမားျဖစၾကသည။ သတ႔၏
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သးခငးမားက ရင၀ယပကၿပး ဆငဆာအဖြ႕မားႏငညႇႏႈငးမႈမားျပလပကာ စပြနဆာရရနႏင ခမးသာေသာ အႏပညာ ရငမား၏ သခငးမားႏင သတ႔၏ ဂတေဖာေျဖပြမားတြင အလကသခငးဆရနအတြက အခတအဆကရရန ၿပငဆင ၾကရသည။ ေနာကဆးျဖစသည တတယအမးအစားမာ “Underground” အမးအစားျဖစၾကသည။ ယခစာတမးတြင ေနာကဆးအပစက ဥးတညသြားမညျဖစသည။ Underground ၏ သေဘာတရားက ယခဖြငထတျပသရန လအပလာၿပျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင Underground အႏပညာရငမားသည မညသညအခါကမ အယလဘမထြကခၾကျခငးမရေသာေၾကာင သတ႔သည စာေပစစစ ေရးႏင မတပ တငေရးဥးစးဌာနသ႔ ခြငျပခကေလာကခၾကရျခငးမရေပ။ ထအစား သတ႔၏ ဂတမားက ျဖန႔ေ၀ရန အငတာနကကသာ အားကးခၾကၿပး YouTube၊ Facebook ႏင ဖငမားမ ေ၀ႏငသည အျခား၀ဘဆငမားသ႔ သတ႔၏ဂတမားက ျဖန႔ေ၀ခၾက သည။ ထ႔ျပငသတ႔၏ တက႐ကေဖာေျဖပြမားကလညး သတ႔ပရတသတတးပြား ေစမည အလြနအေရးပါေသာ ေနရာ တစချဖစခသည။ ရနကနရ Underground အႏပညာရငမား စစစေရးသ႔ မေလာကၾကသည အေၾကာငးအရငးမားစြာရသည။ ပထမဆး အေၾကာငးအရငးမာ ၂၀၁၂ အထ ပစတာမား၊ ေၾကာျငာမား၊႐ပသႏင ႐ပရငျပကြကမားတြင ပတပငထားသည တကတးမား သတ႔အမားစတြငရၾကျခငးျဖစသည။ ဒတယအေၾကာငးအရငးမာ သတ႔၏ သခငးစာသားေၾကာငျဖစသည။ ႏငငေရးအရအျမတက႐ကမဟတေသာလညး စစစေရးခြငျပခကရဖ႔ထက ထပတကရငဆငရဖြယရသညအေၾကာငး အရငးမာ အမားအားျဖင ျမနမာႏငငရ ခကခလေသာဘ၀မားအေၾကာငးက ေရးသားထားၾကျခငးေၾကာငျဖစသည။ အဆပါသခငးစာသားမားသည အစးရက တက႐ကပတခတထားျခငးမဟတသလ ႏငငေရးက တက႐ကဖြ႕ဆထားျခငး မဟတေသာလညး ဟစေဟာသခငးမားေရးကသကးေနၾကပစမားမာ ပားပနးခတျခငးႏင လမးေပၚက ဘ၀မား အေၾကာငးျဖစသည အတြက စစစေရးက ခြငျပမညမဟတဟ အႏပညာရငက ႀကတငခန႔မနးၿပး မေလာကၾကျခငးျဖစ သည။ သတ႔ေလာကခၿပးသတ႔သခငးေတြက ခြငမျပခလငသခငးမားက YouTube သ႔မဟတ Facebook ေပၚသ႔တငျခငး သ႔ မဟတ ဂတပြမားတြငေဖာျခငးမား ျပလပႏငေတာမညမဟတေပ။ ထသ႔ျပလပလင စစစေရး၏ ဆးျဖတခကက တက` ႐က မေလးမစားျပရာေရာကၿပး ျပငးျပငးထနထနအေရးယခရမညျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင စစစေရး တစခါမ မတငလငအႏပညာရငမားသညစစစေရးမကလးေအာကမ ႐း႐းရငးရငးပငလြတကငးေနၿပး တငစရာ၊ ဆစရာေနရာ မား ပမ ရရကာ သတ႔ဂတအတြက မညသညအခါကမ ထပတကရငဆငချခငးမရဘသကသ႔ျဖစေနေတာသည။ စတ၀ငစားစရာ ေကာငးသညမာ စစစေရးကေရာငျခငးသည အႏရာယမားသညပျဖစေနေသာလညး ထကသ႔ အာချခငးေၾကာင Underground အႏပညာရငတစဥးဥး အျပစေပးခခရသညက တစခါမ မၾကားမေခ။ တကယတမး တြငသခငးတပဒ၌ဇာတလကႏငရနျဖစေနသသညရနကနရတပဖြ႕၀င၀တစ၀တဆငထားသညက ဗဒယျပကြက တစခတြငပါ၀ငခသည။ အဆေတာမားအေနျဖင အဆပါျပကြကသည အႏရာယအေတာႀကးသညဟ ထငျမငေသာ လညး အာဏာပငမား သတျပမချခငးမရခေပ။ ၂၀၁၂ ခႏစေႏာငးပငးတြင စစစေရးဖကသမးသြားၿပးေနာက အဆပါ Underground အဆေတာမားသည ယခႏစ တြငသတ႔၏ပထမဆးေသာတရား၀ငအယလဘမထတေ၀ရနျပငဆငလကရသည။ ယခႏစတြင အယလဘမထတ ေ၀ပါက စစစေရးသ႔ တငစရာမလေတာေသာလညး အဆေတာမားသည တရား၀ငအယလဘမ ထြကရျခငးအတြက စြန႔စြန႔စားစားလပေဆာငရျခငးျဖစသည။သတ႔အေခြတရား၀ငထြကရျခငးအတြကမညသ႔ျဖစလာ မညက အဆေတာ မား မသၾကေသးေခ။ အထးသျဖင သတ႔အေခြမားတြင ပြငပြငလငးလငးဆထားသည သခငးမားပါ ၀ငၿပး ၈၈လထ အၾကြမႈ၊ ႏငငေရး အကဥးသားမားႏင ထငး-ျမနမာနယစပရဒကၡသညမားအေၾကာငးက စပဆထား ျခငးျဖစသည။ အသစပေဖာေနသည ႏငငတရပအေနျဖင အျငငးပြားဖြယရာသခငးမားထတေ၀ျခငးျဖင လာမည ႏစ အနညးငယ အတြငး ဂတဆငရာလြတလပမႈက တစစတရာအတငးအတာအထ စမးသပခသြားၾကလမမညျဖစသည။ လြတလပေသာ ဂတသည တကယတမးပင အေရးႀကးၿပး အဆပါဂတကယတငကပငလင ပမကယျပန႔ေသာ အေျပာငးအလကလညး ညႊနးကနးတစချပသႏငသည။ အစဥအလာကင၀တမားက ေလာထားသည လငယမား အတြက မဒယတစခက တငဆကရငး ယခငက ေရး႐းပစြေသာ ယဥေကးမႈမားအတြက ေဖာကထြကသြားသည
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နညးလမးမားက ေပးကာ စစတပသည လ႔မလင၀ါဒႏင အာဏာက အဓကဖနတးသအျဖစ ပေဖာထားၾကသည။ ယခအခါ ယဥေကးမႈဆငရာလကနကပနးသည ယခငက ပါ၀ါရယခသည လမးစဥမား၊ အစဥအဆကခမးသာသ မားႏင စစတပႏင အခတ အဆကရသမားႏငအတ ခတဆကလာၿပျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငရဟစေဟာဂတရပ၀နးသည ယခငကတညးက အမးသားမားအားေကာငးခသည။ မဘမား၊ ခငပြနးသည မားႏငခစသရညးစားမားက သတ႔၏ လႈပရားမႈမားက ကန႔သတခပျခယထားေသာ၊ ၿပး ထသ႔လပလင အမညးစက ထငမညျဖစေသာေၾကာင အမးသမးမားဟစေဟာရပ၀နးသ႔၀ငရနခကခခသည။အမးသမးေမာဒယမား၊ အမးသမး သ႐ပေဆာငမားႏငအမးသမးအဆေတာမားအပါအ၀င အမးသမးမား ယငးလမႈ၀နးကင၏ ဗမာစႏင ေဖာသညဟ ယဆသညအ၀တအစားမား၀တၿပး အေဖာအမးသားမပါဘညဘကအျပငထြကလငအျပငပနးအားျဖင ျပည႔တနဆာ မားဟ ယဆၾကၿပး ထသ႔ဓာတပမား၊ ဗဒယျပကြကမား သ႔မဟတ ထအေၾကာငး သတငးမားေအာကတြငလညး ဆးရြား ေသာမတခကမားျပၾကသည။ ထအေၾကာငးမားေၾကာင အမားစက ယငးအလပက ေခါငးထထညျခငး သ႔မဟတ လပ ကငျခငး မျပၾကသညမာ ထငရားသည။ ယခအခါတြင စတငေျပာငးလလာၿပးျဖစၿပး Bobby Soxer ႏင စႏၵျမငလြင အပါ အ၀ငအမးသမးဟစေဟာအဆေတာအခ႕မာလႀကကမားလာေသာ အဆရငမားျဖစလာၾက သည။ ယငးေၾကာငျမနမာဟစေဟာယဥေကးမႈ၏အေရးႀကးေသာအျခားမကႏာစာတစရပျဖစသည ပရပဆသ႔ ဥးတညသြား ေစသည။ ႏငငတကာအားျဖင ေပၚျပလာဂတသည ဂတျဖန႔ခေရးႏင ဂတသမားမား၀ငေငြရာေရး၏ အခနကာလ သစတစခသ႔ ၀ငေရာကလကရသည။ယခငကမအေခြေရာငးသညအေပၚကရသညအကးအျမတကသာ အားထားခ ရ ေသာလညး ယခကာလတြငမ သခငးေခြမား အငတာနကတြငအခမရယႏငၿပး ျပန႔ႏျခငးႏငအတ စပြနစာေပးမႈႏင ဂတေဖာေျဖပြခရးစဥမားအပါအ၀ငအျခားနညးလမးမားျဖငလညး၀ငေငြရရလကရသည။ ျမနမာဟစေဟာအဆ ေတာမား သည စပြနဆာမား၊ အ၀တအထညမားႏင လ႔အသးအေဆာငမားအတြက အေရာငးျမႇငတငျခငးမား၊ ႏငငေတာ၀ါဒျဖန႔ ခေရးပစၥညးမားႏင႐ပရငသခငးမားကသာ အားထားခရသည။ ယငးတ႔တြငပဂၢလက အ၀တ အထညမား၊ နာရမား၊ လက၀တရတနာမား၊ မတကပ၊ မဘငးလဖနးမတဆကျခငးႏင လကလအေရာငးဆငမား အတြက အေရာငးျမႇငတငေရးပစၥညးမားပါ၀ငသလ ယခႏစဒဇငဘာလတြင ျမနမာႏငင၌ကငးပမည အေရ႕ေတာင အာရအားကစားၿပငပြအတြက သခငးမားေရးသားျခငးႏင ႐ပရငျပကြကမားတြင မားစြာေသာ အဓကဟစေဟာ အဆရငမားပါ၀ငျခငးကသ႔အစးရ၏ လႈ႕ေဆာေရး လႈပရားမႈမားတြငလညး ါ၀ငသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင သခငးစာသား၏ အရညအေသြးထကဟစေဟာအဆေတာ မား၏ဂဏသတငးႏငပရပတ႔သညပမတးပြားလာျခငးသည ပအေရးပါ သည။ ဟစေဟာသညပၿပးလႀကကမားလာကာ အကးအျမတျဖစထြနးလာခနတြင အဆေတာမားအား ပမနစစဥမႈမား ပတး လာသညက ေတြ႕ျမငႏငသည။ ထတလပသမား၊ စတဒယ ပငရငမား၊ စပြနဆာမားႏင ပြစစဥသမားအတြက ေအာငျမင မညစးပြားေရးလပငနးျဖစလာေနၿပး အဆပါလပငနးသညလညး ပစတကျဖစလာကာ အခ႕ေနရာတြင လပဂၢလက ဥးတညသညပစမားေပာကလာသည။ ရနကနတြငလႀကကအမားဆး ဟစေဟာအဆေတာေလးဥးမာ စငးစငး၊ Snare၊ ဘနနၿဖးႏင လႊမးပငတ႔ျဖစၾကသည။ ယငးအဆေတာမားသည အျမအတေဖာေျဖေလရၾကၿပး Bo Bo Entertainment က ပြစစဥသအျဖစ လပေလရသည။ ယငးေဖာေျဖပြမားအတြက မၾကာေသးမကပင Coca Cola ႏင Tiger Music တ႔က စပြနဆာ စတငေပးခၾကသည။ ဟစေဟာ၏ ေပါငးစညးအရညအေသြးမာ အဖြ႕မားေပါငးေဖာေျဖျခငးျဖစသည။ PBD၊ Cyclone ႏင Snare တ႔အပါအ၀င ေခါငးစဥတစခ ေအာကတြင အဖြ႕ႏစခမ Rapper မားေဖာေျဖျခငးျဖစၿပး အဆရငမားစဖြ႕ထားသည အသငးအဖြ႕မားလညးရကာ အထငရားဆးအသငးမာ Myanmar Hip Hop Association သ႔မဟတ MHA ျဖစသည။ MHA အဖြ႕၀ငမား သည စာလးေပါငးအတေကာကက ေဆးမငေၾကာငအႀကးစားႀကးမားထးထားၾကၿပး ေဖာေျဖပြ မားႏင အေခြမားတြင တစခါတစရစေပါငးေဖာေျဖၾကသည။ အဖြ႕မားေပါငးေဖာေျဖၾကျခငး၏ ေဘးထြကဆးကးမာ
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ယခေလာေလာဆယ ရနကနတြင ျပငးထနေနသည ၿပငဆငျခငးႏင ျပငဘကျဖစျခငးတ႔ျဖစၾကသည။ ယခလပငနး သ႔ ႏငငျခားအရငးအႏးမား ပမ၀ငေရာကလာၿပး၀ငေငြေသာကေသာကလရႏငမညဟေသာအျမငျဖင စပြနဆာမား ကရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမားပမစတင လာခနႏင ႏငငတကာေတးသသြငးကမၸဏမားက ေစးကြကတြငးပမ၀ငေရာကလာ ဖြယရခနတြင အားလးက ထပဆး တြငရေနလၾကသည။ ယငးေျပာငးလမႈအားလးသည ျမနမာႏငငရဟစေဟာက ေဆးမငေၾကာငမားက ခြျခားသညအေလအထ၊ ကားမ တနးတညမမႈ၊ စစတပလ႔မလင၀ါဒ၊ လြတလပစြာေျပာဆခြင၊ ႏငငျခားပါ၀ငပကသကျခငးႏင သေဘာတရား တက စစစကန႔သတျခငးတ႔အပါအ၀ငမားစြာေသာလမႈေရး၊ ႏငငေရးႏငစးပြားေရးအေျပာငးအလကေမာငးႏငေနသညမာ အေသ အခာပငျဖစသည။ ယငးသ႔ ႏငငေရးႏင ယဥေကးမႈၾကားအျပနအလနသကေရာကေနျခငးက ေနာငထပ ေလလာသးသပ မႈမားျပလပရနလအပၿပး ျမနမာအေရးေလလာမႈတြင ႀကးႀကးမားမားေနရာေပးရမညျဖစသည။
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လြတေတာအမတတစျဖစလ စစသားမား- တပမေတာအတြက ဥပေဒျပေရးအခနးက႑တစခက ရာေဖြျခငး
Soldiers as Lawmakers: In Search for a Legislative Role of the Tatmadaw
Renaud Egreteau Research Assistant Professor The University of Hong Kong
အာဏာရငလကေအာငတြင ပါလမနက “ရာဘာ တဆပတး” ဥပေဒျပအမတမားအျဖစ နားလညေလရၾကသည။ သတ႔ သည အာဏာရေသာ အႀကးအက၏ ဆႏၵအတငးလပေဆာငၾကရသည။ အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးကာလတြင ပစသစျဖင ဥပေဒျပအမတမား သသသာသာတးပြားလာၾကသည။ အသစေရြးေကာကတငေျမႇာကခရေသာ ပါလမနသည အပခပသလတနးစားအေဟာငး၏ အကးစးပြားက ခခကာကြယရာတြင အဖကအငအားစမားျဖစႏငသလ ဆန႔ကင ဘကအားျဖင ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငေရးသ႔လညး သြားႏငသညအငအားစမားျဖစႏငသည။ စစအစးရဆငးၿပး တကလာ သည အစးရ လကထကတြင စစတပသည ေယဘယအားျဖင အဆပါပါလမနမားတြင ဖြ႕စညးပအရျပဌာနးၿပးေနရာယ ၾကေလရေသာ လညး ၁၉၈၆ ခႏစအလြန ဖလစပငတြငေပၚထြနးသည အရပဘက-စစဘကအသြငေျပာငးေရးတြငမ ထသ႔ျဖစခသည မဟတေပ။ စစတပ၏ ဥပေဒျပေရးပါ၀ငမႈသည အမးသားလႊတေတာႏင/သ႔မဟတ ျပညနယလႊတ ေတာမားတြင ေ၀စေနရာ မားထားရၿပး ယေလရၾကသည။ ဥပေဒျပလႊတေတာမားတြင ထသ႔ေ၀စရယထားျခငးျဖင စစတပသညဥပေဒျပေရးျဖစစဥမားကမကေျခမပကေစာငၾကညရနႏင မမတ႔၏ ကယကးစးပြားက ကာကြယထနးသမး ေစာငေရာကရနရညရြယသညအျပငႏငငေတာဗ႐ကေရစ၊ အသြငကးေျပာငးေရးဆငရာ အႀကးအကမားႏင အျခားမ၀ါဒ ခမတျခငးအေဆာက အအမားကလညး လြမးမးမႈလမးေၾကာငးတစခချဖင သတ႔လကထတြငရေစရနျဖစသည။ ဗလခပႀကးဆဟာတ၏ New Order (၁၉၆၅-၁၉၉၈) ျဖင အငဒနးရားသည ကာလၾကာရည ေလလာစရာကစၥတစရပ ျဖစခသည။ အငဒနးရားစစတပသည အမနကယတမးတြငလညး အပခပမႈႏင ဥပေဒျပမႈတ႔တြင သတ႔၏ပါ၀ငမႈက အဖြ႕အစညးမေဘာငအေလအထျဖစေစရန စမခသည။ တကၾကြေသာ ဗလခပမားႏင ဗလမးႀကးမားသည အငဒနးရား သ႐းမား၊ ၀နႀကးဌာနမား ႏင လႊတေတာမားတြင ကာလၾကာရညေနရာယခၾကသည။ ၁၉၉၀ ျပညႏစအေစာပငးေရာက မသာ ဂကာတာရ အမးသား လႊတေတာတြင စစတပေနရာရယခြငက အျပငးအထနျငငးခေဆြးေႏြးခၾကသည။ ၂၀၀၄ ခႏစေရာကမသာ စစတပလႊတေတာကယ စားလယမားသည အမးသားလႊတေတာႏင ျပညနယလႊတေတာမားမ ထြကခြာသြားခၾကသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင အဆပါမဒယအတငးလကရန ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒ၌ တပမေတာအတြက ထးထးျခားျခား အခြငအလမးမားေပးထားသည။ ၂၀၁၀ ေရြးေကာကပြၿပးေနာက ျမနမာတပမေတာသား ကယစားလယမားသည အမး သားလႊတေတာ၊ ျပညသ႔လႊတေတာႏင ျပညနယတငးေဒသႀကးလႊတေတာမားတြင ကယစားလယအေရအတြက၏ ေလးပတစပရယထားသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျပညသ႔လႊတေတာတြင ကယစားလယ ၁၁၀ (ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒ အပဒ ၁၀၉-ခ)၊ အမးသားလႊတေတာတြင ကယစားလယ ၅၆ ဥး (အပဒ ၁၄၁-ခ) ျပညနယႏငတငးေဒသႀကးလႊတေတာ ၁၄ ရပတြင ၂၂၂ ဥး (အပဒ ၁၆၁-ဃ) တ႔ရရထားသည။ ထဆးျဖတခကသည ဗလခပမးႀကးသနးေရႊက သအနားမယမ ၂၀၁၁ ဇနန၀ါရ ၂၀ ရကေန႔တြင ေနာကဆးခမတသြားခသည ဆးျဖတခကျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစတြင ဗလခပမးႀကး သနးေရႊခန႔အပသြားခေသာ ပထမဆးအသတ တပမေတာသားကယစားလယ ၃၈၈ ဥးတြင ျပညသ႔လႊတေတာ၏ ဗလမး ႀကး ၃ ဥးႏင အမးသားလႊတေတာ၏ ဗလမးႀကး ၂သာရခၿပး ျပညနယႏငတငးေဒသႀကးလႊတေတာမားတြင တပမ ေတာသားကယစားလယမားက ဗလမးႀကး ၁ဥးစကဥးေဆာငေစခကာ ကရငျပညနယတြငသာ ဗလမးခပတစဥးက ခန႔အပထားခသည။(ေနာကပငးတြငသသည
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ျပညနယ၀နႀကးခပအျဖစလာထားျခငးခရသည)။အျခားေသာ တပမေတာ သားလႊတေတာကယစားအားလးပါ ရာထးနမသည ဗလမး၊ ဗလႀကးႏင ေရတပဗလႀကးမားသာျဖစၾက သည။ ဖြ႕စညးပ အေျခခဥပေဒကျပငမညဆလင ၇၅ ရာခငႏႈနးေကာေသာလႊတေတာကယစားလယမားက၏ ေထာကခ မႈကလ အပသညတင ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရးအလာအလာတစခခက ေစစပညႇႏႈငးမရႏငေသာ ဗတျဖငပယ ခရနမာ ယငးတ႔၏ အဓကရညမနးခကျဖစေသာေၾကာင စစတပကယစားလယမား လႊတေတာတြငထားရျခငး ျဖစ သညဟ ေလလာသးသပသမားစြာက ယဆသည။ SPDC အလြန တငးျပျပညျပလႊတေတာႏင ေဒသဆငရာလႊတေတာမားတြင တပမေတာ၏ေနရာသည ခငျမေနသညဆ လင ဒမကေရစအေရးတကၾကြလႈပရားသမားမၾကာခဏေ၀ဖနသလ တပမေတာ၏ ဥပေဒျပေရးအာဏာသည အကန႔ အသတမၿပး အထနးမရဟဆရမညျဖစသည။ တပမေတာသားကယစားလယမားထားရျခငးသည အတကအခကယစား လယမားက ဥးေဆာငၿပး ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရးႀကးပမးလာလငခခရန၊ သမၼတေလာငးတစဥးႏင ဒသမၼတ ေလာငးႏစဥးအနကတစေနရာ (ႏစဥးစလးသည စစတပေနာကခအျပညရရမည) ရရရနႏင စစတပႏငသကဆငေသာ ကစၥရပမားက ကငတြယရနျဖစမညဟ ေလလာသအမားစက ကနဥးထငျမငခၾကသည။ သ႔ေသာ တပမေတာသားကယ စားလယမား၏ ႏငငေရးအရာသသသာသာပါ၀ငလာမႈမားသည တငးျပျပညျပလႊတေတာ (ေဒသဆငရာလႊတေတာမား ထကပသည) တြင တစျဖညးျဖညးတးလားၿပး တပမေတာ၏ ႏငငေရးအရအသတတမႈမလညး အနညးငယေျပာငးလာခ သည။ ၂၀၁၀ ေရြးေကာကပြၿပးေနာက ပထမဆးအႀကမ လႊတေတာတြင အသစခန႔အပခရသည တပေတာသားလႊတ ေတာကယစားလယမားသည လႊတေတာအရပရပတြင မထငမရားေနရနရညရြယခသည။ သ႔ေသာ ၾသဇာတကမႀကး မားသည ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညႏင အမးသားဒမကေရစအဖြ႕ခပတ႔သည ၂၀၁၂ ၾကားျဖတေရြးေကာကပြၿပးေနာက လႊတေတာႏစရပသ႔၀ငေရာကလာခနတြငမ လႊတေတာ၏ ဂဏသကၡာက အဖတဆယႏငခသည။ ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစကတညး က ျပညသ႔လႊတေတာဥကဌအျဖစတာ၀နယခသည သရဥးေရႊမနး၏ႏငငေရးအာဏာ၏ခငမာမႈမာလညး ယငးအေရးပါ မႈက ပမအားေကာငးေစခသည။ အမားကအဓကထားေျပာဆၾကသညမာ သသည သမၼတဥးသနးစနႏငႏငငေရး ၿပငဘကျဖစေနၿပဆေသာ ေကာလာဟလမားပငျဖစသည။ အထကပါအားလးတြင တပမေတာသားကယစားလယမားသည ပါလမနအေျခအတငေဆြးေႏြးပြမားတြငပါ၀ငျခငး၊ ဥပေဒပါျပဌာနးခကမားကေဆြးေႏြးျခငးႏင ျပညေထာငစလႊတေတာ၏လႊတေတာႏစရပၾကားဥပေဒမားအတြက စစဥ ျခငးတ႔ျဖင ကၽြမးကငမႈမားက တးတကျပသခၾကသည။ ၄ငးတ႔အား အထးသငတနးမားေပးၿပး ႏငငေရးသပၸဘာသာ ရပက စစတကသလ (DSA) တြင မသငမေနရဘာသာရပတစခအျဖစ သငၾကားေပးသည။ ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစအေစာပငးတြင ေနျပညေတာႏင ရနကန၌ လႊတေတာကယစားလယမားႏင ေတြ႕ဆေမးျမနးခခနတြင မမတ႔၏ စစတပလပေဖာကင ဖကမားအထးသျဖင အလတတနးအရာရမားႏင ရငးႏးေသာ ဒငယာေလာကတညေဆာကရန မမတ႔မညသ႔ ႀကးပမးခ ရေၾကာငး အခ႕က ျပနေျပာငးေျပာဆၾကသည။ ေနျပညေတာတြငလႊတေတာမားမစမတြင ေဆြးေႏြးမႈမားျပလပခရာ တြင ကနဥးေမာမနးထားသညထက မားစြာခရးေပါကခပေပၚသည။ ထအရာမားအားလးအျပင ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစတြငမ ပထမ ဆးအႀကမလႊတေတာတြင တာ၀နထမးေဆာငခရသည အရပသားကယစားလယမားသညလညး ဥပေဒျပေရးယႏယား မားႏင မားစြာရငးႏးကၽြမး၀ငျခငးမရၾကေပ။ ထ႔ျပင ၂၀၁၂ ခႏစၾကားျဖတေရြးေကာကပြတြင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကည အႏငရရၿပး သးပတအၾကာတြင ျပညသ႔လႊတ ေတာတြင ဗလမးႏင ဗလႀကး၅၉ ဥးေနရာတြင ဗလမးခပမားႏင ဗလမးႀကးမားက အစားထးခန႔အပျခငးသည တပမေတာထမ မ၀ါဒအေျပာငးအလသကေသတစခက ေတြ႕ရရျခငးပငျဖစသည။ ထမစ၍ ရာထးျမငေသာ တပမေတာ ကယစားလယမား ဥပေဒျပေရးအေျခအတငေဆြးေႏြးပြမားတြင
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ျပညျပည၀၀ပါ၀ငလာခၾကသည။ ယငးမာ တပမေတာ (အထးသျဖင ကာကြယေရးဥးစးခပ ဗလခပမးႀကး မငးေအာငလႈင)သည ဥပေဒျပေရးမ႑ငက အေရးထားမႈပမတး လာေၾကာငး ညႊနျပေနျခငးျဖစသည။ ထ႔ျပင တပမေတာသည တာ၀နယမႈ၊ တာ၀နခမႈႏင ျပညသ႔အကးစးပြားေရ႕တနး တငမႈတ႔၏ ပရပကျမႇငတငသညစကားမားေျပာလာျခငးႏငအတ တပမေတာထပတနးအရာရတငးသညလညး စစတပမဟတေသာ အဖြ႕အစညးမားႏင အငစတကးရငးမားအပါအ၀င ရညမနးစရာမားထားရၾကသည။ ထ႔ျပင တပမေတာသားကယစားလယမားသည အတကအခကယစားလယမားတငသြငးလာသည အဆမား (ထထကပ ေသာအရာမား)က ဆန႔ ကငရာတြင စနစတကစမထားျခငးမဟတေသာ မေပးမႈမားလညး ပမတးပြားလာခသည။ SLORC-SPDC ေခတအတြငး “အမးသားလၿခေရး” ႏင တပမေတာထကေအာကပစျဖငသာ သးသန႔ထားသညဟ တစခနကယဆ ထားသည အခ႕ေသာ ကစၥရပအခ႕တြငလညး တပမေတာသားကယစားလယသည နားေထာငလစတ ရေၾကာငးျပသခၿပး အခ႕ေနရာမားတြင အတကအခမားႏင သေဘာညေနသညက ေတြ႕ရသည။ ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစ ၾသဂတလ တြင တငျပသည အကဥးသားမားအတြက အေထြေထြလြတၿငမးခမးသာခြငတစခက ေထာကခခနတြင တပမေတာသား ကယစားလယမားကသေဘာတခၾကသည။ အရပသားကယစားလယမားကယတငကလညး အသစစကစကဥပေဒျပ လႊတေတာကယစားလယမားျဖစေနၾကသညအတြက မျပညစေသးသညတင ၂၀၀၄ ႏင ၂၀၀၇ အတြငး ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခ ခဥပေဒ မၾကမးေရးဆြခသည တငးတငးၾကပၾကပထနးခပထားေသာ အမးသားညလာခက ျပနလညေခၚယရန လမးမရ ေသးေခ။ ပါလမနတကၾကြလႈပရားမႈဒါ၀ျဖင SPDC အလြန ခငမာအားေကာငးေရးအတြက အလားအလာမားမာလညး ပမလငး လကေတာကပလာမညဟ ဆရမညျဖစသည။ အားတကဖြယေကာငးသညမာ တပမေတာသားကယစားလယမားသည ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစကတညးကစတငခသည သသာထငရားေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးအေျချပဥပေဒမားေဖာေဆာငမႈက ဆန႔ ကငသမႈမျပချခငးျဖစသည။ အထးသျဖင ျပညေထာငစအဆငတြငျဖစသည။ ဖးကြယေနသည ၾသဇာႀကးေသာ သရ ဥးေရႊမနး၏ အလြနအေရးပါေသာ အခနးက႑ကလညး ေဖာထတရမည။ ေနာကထပ ေကာငးေသာလကၡ ဏာတစရပမာ စစတပသည ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒကေပးထားေသာ လက၀ယရသည ဗတမသည ဥပေဒျပျခငးႏင ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး စစဥျခငးတ႔တြင တကတကၾကြၾကြပါ၀ငလာျခငးျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈသည အလြနတရာကး ပကလြယသညအေနအထားတြငရေနၿပး ေမာလငခကမားမာလညး အလြနတရာ စတကးဆနေနေသးသည။ တငးမာ မႈမားကမၾကာမ ဘြားကနေပၚထြကလာေကာငး လာႏငသည။SPDCေခတအလြနတြငလႊတေတာ မားတြငး၌ယနေဖာငး ၀တမားရေနျခငးသည မမနမဟတေၾကာငးႏင ျပငဆငရမညျဖစေၾကာငး အတကအခမားအထးသျဖငေဒၚေအာငဆနး စၾကညက ထပတလလေျပာၾကားခသည။ ၂၀၁၅ မတငမတြင ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒျပငဆငေရး က သတ႔က တြနးေန ၾကသည။ ၁၉၉၀ ျပညႏစမားတြင အငဒနးရား၌ျဖစခသလပင ကစၥရပမားက မညသ႔ကငတြယလင အရပသားမားႏင စးမးထားဆစစတပၾကား ၿငမးခမးေသာ ဆကဆေရးတစရပ ခငမာရန (သ႔မဟတ မခငမာရန) သကေသျပလမမညနညး ဟ၍ ျဖစၿပး ယငးကစၥသည လႊတေတာဥပစာက ေကာလြနသည။
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အာဏာရငအစးရမား၏ ရငသနေရးမဟာဗဟာမား ႏႈငးယဥေလလာခက- ျမနမာ၊ တ႐တႏင ေျမာကကရးယား
Authoritarian Survival Strategies in Comparative Perspective: Myanmar, China and North Korea
Wooyeal Paik Sungkyunkwan University (Seoul, South Korea)
[email protected] အေရ႕အာရ (ေတာငႏင ေျမာက) တ႔ရ အာဏာရငအစးရသးချဖစေသာ ျမနမာ၊ တ႐တႏင ေျမာကကရးယား တ႔သည မၾကာေသးမႏစကာလမားအတြငး အားျပငးသည စနေခၚမႈမားႏင အေျပာငးအလမားက ေတြ႕ႀကခ ရေသာလညး သတ႔ ၏ တ႔ျပနပမားက မတၾကေပ။ ျမနမာသည မၾကာေသမက သသာထငရားေသာ ႏငငေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားျပလပၿပး ေစးကြကစးပြားေရးစနစသ႔ အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈတစခ ျပလပခသည။ တ႐တသည အေျခခကေသာ ႏငငေရးျပျပင ေျပာငးမႈမျပလပဘ ေစးကြကစးပြားေရးစနစတစခသ႔ အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈ ျပလပခ သည။ေျမာကကရးယားသညႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမလပသလေစးကြကစးပြားေရးနစသ႔လညးအသြငကးေျပာငး မႈမလပခေပ။ ယငးအာဏာရင၏အစးရသးရပကသတ႔ ရငသနရပတညေရးအတြက မတညေသာလမးေၾကာငးမား ကေလလာလင အေရ႕အာရရ အာဏာရငအစးရမားအေၾကာငးက ကၽြႏပတ႔နားလညရန အေထာကအကျဖစေစ သည။ ထ႔ထကပၿပး ထးထးျခားျခား ဆရလင အေရ႕အာရအာဏာရငအစးရမားက ႏႈငးယဥၾကညေသာအခါ သတ႔၏ ဒေပနာေပခမႈ၊ ရငသနရပတညေရး မဟာဗဟာမား၊ စးပြားေရးႏင ႏငငေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားႏင အသြငကး ေျပာငးမႈမားက ေတြ႕ရမညျဖစသည။ ထသေဘာကအေျခခၿပး ယခစာတမးတြငေအာကပါေမးခြနးမား(၁)အေရ႕အာရရအာဏာရငအစးရသးရပျဖစေသာ ျမနမာ၊တ႐တႏငေျမာကကရးယားတ႔သညမညသ႔ရပတညရငသနခသနညး၊(၂)အခ႕ေသာအာဏာရငအစးရမားက စးပြားေရးႏင/သ႔မဟတႏငငေရးအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈကအဘယေၾကာငျပလပခၿပးအျခားအစးရမားကအဘယ ေၾကာင မျပလပသနညး၊ (၃) တစ၀ကတစပကယဥၿပငရသည ေရြးေကာကပြ၊ အာဏာရငအစးရပစ၏ အခနး က႑က ဘာလႏင အလားတရလဒ (အစးရ ရပတညရငသနမႈ)ႏငအတ ယငးသ႔ေသာထးျခားမႈမားကျပလပရာတြင ျဖစေနကပစမားကဘာလ၊ (၄) အဆပါျပညတြငးဖကတာသးရပထကပၿပး အျခားအလြနအေရးပါသညဖကတာမား ကမညသည တ႔ျဖစသနညးတ႔က ေမးျမနးထားသည။ အဆပါေမးခြနးမားက ေျဖဆရန အာဏာရငအစးရသးရပ၏ ျဖစရပမားက အရညအေသြးအေျချပနညးလမးမားႏင အေရ႕အာရႏင အျခားေဒသမား (arge-N Study) တြင ႀကးမားေသာ ကနးဂဏနးမားအတြက အေရအတြကေျချပ နညး လမးမားျဖင ႏႈငးယဥေလလာသညနညးက ယခစာတမးတြင အသးျပထားသည။ ယခသေတသနတြင အဆပါနညးလမး မားက အသးျပရန ------- ယခစာတမး၏ အဓကအဆမားမာ ေအာကပါအတငးျဖစသည။ အေရ႕အာရရ အာဏာရငအစးရမားသည မမတ႔၏ ရငသနရပတညေရးအတြကအမးမးေသာ ကျပားအစးရပရပစမားသ႔ မမတ႔ဘာသာ အသြငေျပာငးလကရခၾက သည။ ေအာကပါ သအရဆငရာမေဘာငသးမးသည သတ႔၏ အာဏာရငမားဒေပနာေပခမႈက သးသပရန အေထာကအကျဖစ ခသည။ ယငးတ႔မာ (၁) အငစတကးရငးဆငရာ စစဥေဆာငရြကျခငး (ေရြးေကာကပြဆငရာ အငစတကးရငးမား)၊ (၂) အာဏာရင အစးရပစ (တစပါတ၊ စစတပ၊ ပဂၢလေရးဆငရာႏင ကျပားပစ) ႏင (၃) သတ႔ေမြးထတထားသည ဆငတေသာ ထငရားသည ဆရာေမြး-တပညေမြးပစမား (ထပပငးတြငလညးျဖစသလ လမားစအဆငတြငလညး ျဖစသည) တ႔ျဖစၾက သည။ ယငးသအရဆငရာမေဘာငမားျဖင ေနာကထပေလလာမႈ မားတြင စးပြားေရးႏင ႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ (သ႔မဟတ အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈ)၏ အခငးအကငးမားကလညး ထညသြငးေလလာသြားမညျဖစသည။
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ျဖစရပ (၁)- ျမနမာႏငငရ တပမေတာအစးရ အငစတကးရငးဆငရာ စစဥေဆာငရြကျခငး (ေရြးေကာကပြ ယႏယား) အေပၚ အေျခခထားသည တစ၀ကတစ ပကၿပင ဆငရေသာ ျပညေထာငစအဆငႏင ေဒသဆငရာအဆငေရြးေကာကပြမားတြင သာမနႏငငသားမား သသာထငရား သညေရြးေကာကပြဆငရာ အေတြ႕အႀကမားရရၿပး အတကအခပါတႏင ေဒၚေအာငဆနးစၾကညက သ႔ ၾသဇာတကမႀကး မားသည ေခါငးေဆာငမားပါ၀ငလာျခငးေၾကာင ယဥၿပငမႈမား ပမျမငတကလာခသည။ အာဏာရငအစးရပစသညစစတပပစသာရေနေသးၿပးသမား႐းကအားျဖငတညၿငမမႈမရဆးႏင သကတမးတေသး ကာျမနမာႏငငတြငပငမဟတ ဘ ၁၉၆၀-၁၉၈၀ ျပညႏစမားရ ယခငေတာငကရးယားပစႏငဆငတသည။ ၄ငး၏ ဆရာေမြး-တပညေမြးပစမာက႑ႏစရပတြငျဖစထြနးေနသည။ယငးတ႔မာစစတပ(တပမေတာ) မ ဆငးသကလာ သည ထပပငးအဆငႏင အဆကသြယေကာငးရသည စြန႔ဥးလပငနးရငမားႏင သာမနျပညသမားက ပထတထား သည အမားျပညသအဆငတ႔တြငျဖစေသာ လညး အခ႕ကေတာ မမတ႔၏ရပတညရငသနေရးအတြက စစတပ၏ လကေ၀ခအျဖစ အဆကအသြယ ေကာငးရာၾကသည။ ျဖစရပ ၂-တ႐တရ တ႐တကြနျမနစပါတအစးရ ယငး၏ အငစတကးရငးဆငရာ စစဥေဆာငရြကျခငး (ေရြးေကာကပြ ယႏယား)သည ေကးရြာေကာမတအထကအ ဆငတြင အဓပၸာယျပည၀ေသာေရြးေကာကပြမားမဟတဘ အတကအခပါတမားႏင ေခါငးေဆာငမားမရသလ ေရြးေကာကပြဆင ရာအေတြ႕အႀကလညး ေကာငးစြာမရၾကေပ။ “တ႐တနညးတ႐တဟန ဆရယလစဒမကေရစ” က အစးရက ေၾကြးေၾကာ ေသာလညး ဘာမနးရငးရငးလငးလငးမရေပ။ ယငးအာဏာရငအစးရပစက တစပါတ (တ႐တကြနျမနစပါတ) ပစ အျဖစ အမးအစားခြႏငၿပး ထပပငးတြင (ခငမာေသာ အဆငအဆငဆကခသည ယႏယား) စေပါငးေခါငးေဆာငမႈသည တညၿငမၿပး ပါတ၀င ၈၂ သနးေကာရသည။ ယငးတစပါတအစးရ၏ ဆရာေမြး-တပညေမြးပစမာ ထပပငးအဆင၌ ႏငငေရးႏင စးပြားေရးတ႔တြငသာျဖစထြနးေနၿပး ေရြးေကာကပြမား၊ ေဒသႏရအစးရမား/ေကဒါအမားစၾကားႏင အသစထြကေပၚလာ ေသာ စြန႔ဥးသမားမားၾကားျဖစထြနးျခငးမရဘ လထအဆင သာမနႏငငသားအမားစမာ ပထတခထားရသည။ ျဖစရပ ၃-ေျမာကကရးယားရ ကငမသားစအစးရ ယငး၏အငစတကးရငးဆငရာစစဥေဆာငရြကျခငး(ေရြးေကာကပြယႏယား)သညအတကအခပါတႏင ေခါငးေဆာင မားမရဘအဓပၸာယျပည၀ေသာေရြးေကာကပြမရသလသာမနႏငငသားတ႔သညလညးေရြးေကာကပြဆငရာ အေတြ႕ အႀကမရေပ။အပခပသညႊန႔ေပါငးသညယချဖစရပသးခတြငအနညးဆးျဖစသည။အာဏာရငအစးရပစသည အမညခ သးပြငဆင (တစပါတ၊ စစတပႏင လပဂၢလ) ျဖစၿပး ထသ႔ေသာေၾကာင အာဏာအေမြဆကခရာတြင တညၿငမသည။ ၄ငး၏ ဆရာေမြး-တပညေမြးပစမာ ထပပငးအဆငတြင ကငမသားစ၊ ၄ငး၏ စစတပႏင ပါတခ႐န မားရၿပးလထအဆငတြငေဒသခေကဒါမားႏငတရားမ၀ငစးပြားေရးသမားမားရၾကသည။ ေန႔စဥဘ၀တြင မေသ႐တ မညရငသနေနရေသာ သာမနႏငငသားမားသည ဘယသ႔ကဆရာတငရမနးပငသပမေပၚေပ။ နဂး ပဏာမသေတသနအေပၚေျခခၿပး ျဖစရပအသးသးရ စးပြားေရးႏင ႏငငေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ/အသြငကးေျပာငးမႈႏင ဆကစပေသာ ပ၍အေသးစတကေသာယႏယားမား စစမးေဖာထတသြားမညျဖစသည။ ေသခာသညမာ အစးရမား ရငသနေရးအတြက အျခားေသာဖကတာအခ႕မာ အစးရ၏ဖႏပျခငး (ႏငငေရးပြငလငးမႈႏငအတ အခး ကေျပာငးလ သြားမည)၊ ေခါငးပျဖတသညႏငင Vs ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးႏငင၊ ႏငငတကာဖကတာမား (ႏကလးယားလကနက မား၊ တ႐တ/ အေမရကန)ႏင ၀ါဒေရးရာ (မဟာတ႐တလမးႀကး၊ အမးသားစညးလးညညြတမႈ၊ ငါတ႔ကအေဆာင ျပညသစသညတ႔ ျပနလညေခါငးေထာငလာျခငး) တ႔ျဖစေပလမမည။ အဆပါ အာဏာရငအစးရသးရပက ယခငႏင
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ယခတြငရေနသည အျခားေသာ အာဏာရငအစးရမားႏင ႏႈငးယဥသြားမညျဖစသလ ခန႔မနးမႈအတြက ေယဘယပစမားရရရန အေရ႕အာရ ႏင အျခားေဒသမားႏငလညး ႏႈငးယဥသြားမညျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာစးပြားေရး အလားအလာ- ၿငမးခမးေရးေဖာေဆာငျခငးေလာ၊ ၿငမးခမးေရးက ခးဖကျခငးေလာ
Myanmar’s Economic Potential: Peace Making or Peace Breaking?
Joakim Kreutz Uppsala University
[email protected] ၂၀၀၈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒႏင အစျပခေသာ ျမနမာျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးလပငနးစဥမားသည ယခအခနအထ ႏငင ေရးအၾကမးဖကမႈတးပြားလားျခငးတစခပါပါဘာခသည။ အထးသျဖင စးပြားေရးအရ အေရးပါေသာ ေဒသမား အနးတြင ျဖစသည။ ေဆာကလပဆ ဆညမားႏင ပကလငးမားက ျပညသမား၏ ဆန႔ကငဆႏၵျပမႈမား ကယကယ ျပန႔ျပန႔ျဖစ ေပၚ ခၿပး ကခငျပညနယႏင ရမးျပညနယေျမာကပငးတ႔တြင အစးရႏင အစးရမဟတေသာ လကနက ကငအဖြ႕မားၾကား တကပြမားေၾကာင သဘာ၀သယဇာတၾကြယ၀ေသာ ေဒသမားတြင အကးဆကမားခစားခရ သည။ အစးရမဟတေသာ လကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားက ကယစားျပသညေၾကညာခကမားတြင လတတေလာတက ခကမႈမားျဖစေပၚေနရျခငးမာ အစးရက သဘာ၀သယဇာတမားက သမးပကလကေသာေၾကာငျဖစရသညဟ ထပတလလေၾကညာခသည။ သ႔ေသာ ဆငျခငနညးကႏငငေရး ဆးျဖတခကချခငးဆငရာ ခငမာသညသအရ မားႏငရငဆငရသညအခါ ယငးသ႔ေသာ အျပ အမမားသည လကခႏငစရာမရေပ။ အဆးအ႐ႈးႀကးစြာျဖငတကခက ေနေသာေနရာမားတြငပဋပကၡမား အဆးသတျခငးမၿငမးခမးေရးအသးအပြငမားရရႏငသည အေကာငးဆးမဟတပါ ေလာ။ ေအာကတြင ျပညတြငးစစကာလအတြငး ရနလမႈမားေၾကာင သးၾကေသာ မဟာဗဟာ၏ သက၀ငေနေသာ သဘာ၀ အေပၚ ဥးတည ရငးလငးခကတစခ အႀကျပလသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ျပညတြငးစစတြင တကခကၾကသမားက သတ႔၏ တစဥးႏငတစဥးအျပနအလနဆကဆျပမမႈမားကသာ အဆးအျဖတေပးျခငးအေပၚ ပညာရငဆငရာ ေယဘယက သည အေကာကအယတစခ ဖယခြာတငျပသြားမညျဖစ။ တေတာငးလသည ယခသေတသနတြင ပဋပကၡအတြငး တကခက ၾကသမားေမာလငထားသည ဖကတာခကသာ ရငးလငး စြာ ဥးတညသြားမညျဖစၿပး တကခကၾကသမား အေရးပါေသာ စးပြားေရးရငးျမစမားႏင နးရာ သ႔မဟတ ေ၀းရာတြင တကပြဆငႏႊရနေရြးခယမႈအေပၚ သကေရာကမႈ တစခကသာ တငျပမညျဖစသည။ သအရပငးဆငရာအဆတစခက တငျပရာတြင ျမနမာႏငငတြင ေလလာႏင သေလာဆသညကသာ တငျပသြားမညျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငေျမာကပငး (ကခငျပညနယႏင ရမးျပညနယ) တ႔တြင အစးရ၏ အျပအမအေျပာငး အလအေပၚ လကေတြ႕အေျခအေနမားအေပၚတညေဆာကျပသြားမညျဖစသလ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး လပငနးစဥမား၏ အကးဆကမားကလညး တငျပသြားမညျဖစသည။ ပတသကေနေသာ အေၾကာငးအရာမားက ေဆြးေႏြးျခငးျဖင အဆး သတသြားမညျဖစၿပး ထေဆြးေႏြးမႈက တငးျပညတြင ျပညတြငးစစ အဆးသတေရး ျဖစႏငဖြယရာတစခရရဖြယရသည။ ပဋပကၡတြင အစးရႏင သပနမား၏ ရညမနးခကမား အခ႕ေနရာမားတြင ျပညတြငးစစမားျဖစပြားေနသညအေၾကာငးအရငးမားစြာရေနႏငၿပး ပထမအဆငတြင အစးရႏင သပနမား၏ တကခကရနေရြးခယမႈမားမာ အျခားေသာႏငငမားႏင အလားတပငျဖစသည။ သပနမား၏ ပထမဆး တကခကမႈမာအာဏာပမရရရန ရညရြယခကေအာငျမငေရးအေပၚဥးတညသည။ ကလနေခတလြန ျမနမာႏငင၏ ပထမဆးႏစကာလမားတြင သပနအေျမာကအျမားတ႔၏ လႈပရားမႈသည ယငးရညရြယေအာငျမငရနႀကးပမးျခငးျဖစ ေသာလညး ABSDF အစးရက ေစာစးစြာပင ခခကာကြယႏငခသည။ တကပြက အျမနဆးအဆးသတသြားေစရန ေမာမနးခကျဖငႏစဖကစလးကရသမလသလကနကအငအားျဖငအစြမးကနတကခကခၾကသည။တကပြအမား ဆးမာၿမ႕ျပ မား၊ ကနသြယေရးဆပကမးမားႏင ပ႔ေဆာငေရးလမးေၾကာငးမားကသ႔ေသာ စးပြားေရးအား
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ျဖငေသာလညးေကာငး၊ သေကၤ တအားျဖငေသာလညးေကာငး အေရးႀကးဆးေနရာမားတြငျဖစပြားၾကၿပး ထေနရာမားက သမးပကျခငးျဖင စစပြအလြနျပနလညတညေဆာကေရးအတြက အေရးႀကးေသာ ရငးျမစမားက ရရႏငမညျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး အေစာပငးတကပြမားတြင တစဖကဖကက တစဖကဖကက မေခမႈနးႏငေသာအခါ တကခကသ မားက သတ႔၏ မဟာဗဟာမားက ထညသြငးစဥးစားၾကေတာသည။ သတ႔သည စစပြတြင အၿပးသတေအာငႏငၿပး မမတ႔၏ အဆးစြနပနးတငမားသ႔ေရာကရႏငမညမဟတ သၾကသညအခါ သတ႔သည ရငသနရပတညေရးႏင အခနႏငမ စစအငအားေကာငးေရးတ႔ကသ႔ေသာ ဒတယပနးတငမားအေပၚဥးတညလာၾကရျပနသည။ အဆပါ ပနးတငမားသ႔ ေရာက ရရန အစးရဘကကလညး အားေကာငးၿပး တရား၀ငျဖစမႈရသညဟ ခယႏငရနျဖစႏငသမ နယေျမမားက ထနးခပရန ႀကးပမးသည။ အျခားတစဖကတြင သပနမားကလညး တပသားသစမားစေဆာငးရန၊ စစေရးေလကငရန အေျခခစခနး မားတညေဆာငႏငရန၊ ႏငငေရးပညာသငၾကားရနႏင ႏငငမကႏာစာထေထာင ရနတ႔အတြက နယေျမအခ႕က ထနး ခပရနလအပသည။ မမတ႔၏ လကရရငးျမစမားက ပၿပးသတထားရနလညး ႏစဖကစလးကလအပသည။ ထ႔ေၾကာင ၿပငဆငမႈသည နယေျမထနးခပျခငးအေပၚဗဟျပသညတင တကခက ၾကသမားက ရငးျမစမားက ထအတြကအသးျပ လမႈနညးပါၿပး စးပြားေရးအရအေရးပါေသာေနရာမားအနးတြင တကပြမားျဖစလမမညမဟတေပ။ သဘာ၀သယဇာတ မားေရာငး၀ယေဖာကကားျခငးမ ရရေနေသာ သတ႔၀ငေငြ ထခကသြားႏငသညအတြက စးပြားေရးအရအေရးပါေသာ ေဒသမားအနးတြင တကခကမႈကေရာငရားရနမာ ယငးတ႔ ၏ ဆငျခငမႈတစရပျဖစသည။ စစပြဆငႏႊရနအတြက အဆပါ ေဒသမားမ၀ငေငြမားက အမားဆးရရႏငရန သတ႔၏ စစသား သ႔မဟတ ၀ငေငြက မစေတးရဘ ကနသြယျခငးမ ၀ငေငြ ပမာဏတစခရရေစရန သတ႔သည ခငမာေသာ အစအစဥမားခမတၾကသည။ျမနမာႏငငတြငထသ႔ေသာ၀ငေငြရာျခငးမးမာဥပမာအားျဖငသစခတျခငးႏင သတတး ေဖာျခငးတ႔လပကငၾကသည ကမၸဏမားက အခြနေကာကချခငးတ႔ျဖစသလ ထငးႏင တ႐တနယစပေဒသမားဆသ႔ ကနစညမားပ႔ေဆာငျခငးမ ၀ငေငြရာေဖြရာတြငလမးပတဆ႔ျခငးသ႔မ ဟတအကာအကြယေပးေရး သေဘာတည ခကမားျဖငရာေဖြျခငးလညး ပါ၀ငသည။ အကယ၍ ေစစပညႇႏႈငးမႈမားစတငၿပး ယငးတ႔သည ပဋပကၡကေျဖရငးေပးႏငမည ယၾကညစတခရေလာကေသာ နညး လမးအျဖစ ႏစဖကက ႐ႈျမငၾကလင သတ႔သည ပဋပကၡ၏ကာလအတြငး သတ႔၏ေမာလငခကမားက ျပနလညထည သြငးစဥးစားၾကၿပး တဆကတညးမာပင ယာယပနးတငမားမ အဆးသတပနးတငမားဆသ႔ ေရႊ႕ ၾကေတာသည။ သတ႔၏ အေပးအယအေနအထားတးတကရနပါသလ ပဋပကၡလြနလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးတြင အေရးပါ ေသာ ရငးျမစမားရရေစရန ႏစ ဖကစလး၏ မဟာဗဟာရညမနးခကမားသည စးပြားအေရးအရအေရးပါ ေသာေဒ သမားသ႔ ျပနလညေရာကရသြားျပနသည။ တစခနတညးမာပငပဋပကၡ၏အဆးသတကစားပြဟ မတယခနတြင သတ႔စတႀကကသးခြငရသည ရငးျမစမား က ပမလၿခေသာေနရာေဒသမားတြင ပမထားရလလာၾကေပလမမည။ ယငးသည စြန႔စားရေသာ ေရြးခယမႈတစချဖစၿပး တကခကၾကသႏစဖကၾကား ယၾကညမႈတညေဆာကေရး ႀကးပမး မႈသည တကပြမားျပငးထနျခငးႏငရငဆငႀကေတြရ လင ေဆြးေႏြးပြမားပကစးသြားေစႏငၿပး ပဋပကၡ၏မလလမး ေၾကာငးေပၚ ျပနေရာကသြားမညျဖစသည။ ၁၉၄၈-၂၀၀၈ ျမနမာႏငငေျမာကပငးရ တငးရငးသားလနညးစေဒသမားသ႔ အစးရ၏ ခဥးကပမႈ လြတလပေရးရၿပးကတညးကပင အစးရသည ဗမာ/ျမနမာ၏ ႏငငေတာအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈအတြငးသ႔ ေျမာကပငး ကခင ျပညနယႏငရမးျပညနယမားအား ထေတြ႕ဆကဆျခငး သ႔မဟတ ပေပါငးေစျခငးတ႔ လပလသည ရညရြယ ခကနညးခ သည။ နယေျမေဒသအမားစမာ အစးရ၏တက႐ကထနးခပမႈေအာငတြင မရဘ ႏငငေတာတညရမႈ ကထေထာငရန ႀကး ပမးမႈအနညးငယသာရခသည။ ထအစား ယငးေဒသမားက သကဆငရာေစာဘြားမား၊ ဘာသာေရးေခါငးေဆာငမားျဖင ပမနခတဆကမႈ ပမျခငး သ႔မဟတ နညးပါးျခငးရေသာ ကြနရကမားမတစဆင အပခပခၿပး ႏငငေရးႏင စးပြားေရးဘ၀ ဆငရာ ေဒသခဘ၀မားက ထနးခပထားၿပး ယၾကညစတခရသည
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ေဒသခအႀကးအကမားႏငလညးအပခပၾကသည။ယငးခဥးကပမႈသညSLORC/SPDCေခတ“အပစအခတရပစေရး” ကာလအထပင တညတခသည။ အဆပါေဒသမား တြင ဆယစႏစ ႏစခနးပါးတငေအာင အၾကမးဖကမႈမား ေလာခႏငမည အခြငအေရးရခၿပး ေဒသခေခါငးေဆာငမားက ေကာငးမားႏင ကနးမာေရးေစာငေရာကမႈမား ေထာကပေပးရနအစးရက ရငးရငးလငးလငးေတာငးဆခသညတင ရနကန/ေနျပညေတာက စတ၀ငစားမႈအနညး ငယသာျပသခသည။ေျပာရမညဆလငျမနမာစးပြားေရးသမားမားပငလင အဆပါေဒသမားတြက၀ငေငြရာရနမားစြာ စတ၀ငစားမႈမရၾကလဘ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈအားလးနးပါးမာ ႏငငျခားကမၸဏ မားျဖစၾကၿပး အထးသျဖင တ႐တႏငထငး တ႔မျဖစသည။ စစအစးရ အထးသျဖင သကဆငရာနယေျမတငးမႈးမားသည ယငးေဒသမားတြင ကနသြယေရး အခြနမားေကာကခေနျခငးေၾကာင သတ႔၏ ေရရညပါ၀ါခငျမေရးအတြကထက ေရတ တကခကေရးအတြကဥး တညခကထားေနဆျဖစသညဟ ယဆရသည။ ၂၀၀၈- ျမနမာႏငငေျမာကပငးရ တငးရငးသားလနညးစေဒသမားသ႔ အစးရ၏ ခဥးကပမႈ ဖြ႕စညးပအေျခခဥပေဒသစေနာကပငး အစးရ၏ျမငသာေသာအေျပာငးအလတစခက ကၽြႏပ၏သေတသနတြင အထင အရား ေတြ႕ျမငခရသည။ ထအခါမစ၍ အစးရသည စးပြားေရးအရ အေရးပါသညေနရာမားက ထနးခပ ႏငေစမည မမ၏ တပမားေနရခထားမႈႏင ႏငငေရးအရ အားထတမႈမားအေပၚ အခငအမာဥးတညမႈတးပြား လာခသည။ ယငးဥးတညခက ၏ ပထမဆးလကၡဏာမာ အစးရမဟတေသာလကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားက နယျခား ေစာငတပမား (BGF) အျဖစလကခခ ျခငးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာစစတပ၏ ကြပကမႈေအာကတြင တာ၀နထမးေဆာငလ စတမရျခငးအေပၚဥးတညထားေသာ အစးရ မဟတသညလကနကကကတပဖြ႕မားက BGF အစအစဥက ဆန႔ကင မႈအမားမျပားရေနစဥ ယငးမကႏာစာ၌ မလေမာ မနးထားသေလာက အဖြ႕မားကြထြကသြားချခငးေတာမရေပ။ သ႔ေသာလညး BGF အဖြ႕သစတစခဖြ႕ၿပးသြားခနတြင စး ပြားေရးအရ အေရးပါေသာ ေနရာေဒသမားအနးတြင ျမနမာစစတပတပရငးမားကလညး ထားရထားၿပးျဖစသည။ ဒတယ လကၡဏာမာ အစးရက သဘာ၀သယဇာတ အေပၚပၿပးအာ႐စကလာျခငးျဖစကာ ၂၀၁၁ တြင ကခငပဋပကၡျဖစေစသည အေျခအေနသ႔ေရာကရသြားေစခ သညဟေသာ အေကာကအယမားျဖစျဖစေစခသည။ တစခါတစရ အစးရႏင KIO ၾကား တငးမာမႈမားျမငတကခ သညတင ရငဆငတကပြမားျဖစပြားရျခငးသည ၁၉၉၄ ခႏစအပစအခတရပစေရးသေဘာတည ခကအရ KIO ထနးခပထားေသာ နယေျမမားသ႔ အစးရတပဖြ႕မား နယကၽြသြားျခငးေၾကာင စျဖစရျခငးျဖစသည။ ႏစကာလမားစြာ ရခသည တကခကမႈမားမျမငတကသငေသာလညး အစးရတပမားက ဆတခြာရနျငငးဆခသလ KIO ကလညး အလားတပင စးပြားေရးအရအေရးပါသညနယေျမမားက လကလြတမခေပ။ ေနာကဆးတြင မားစြာေသာ တငးရငး သားကယစားလယမားကလညး ေတာငးဆၾကသညမာ လကရၿငမးခမးေရးေဆြးေႏြးပြမားတြင အစးရ၏ ဥးစားေပး လပငနးမားတြင စးပြားေရးအရအေရးပါဆးနယေျမမားက ထနးခပထားသည အဆပါအဖြ႕မားႏင အပစအခတရပစ ေရး ေအာငျမငရန ဥးစြာပထမဥးတညထားရမညဟ၍ျဖစသည။ ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥမားတညျမၿပး ကယျပန႔လာ သညႏင အမ အစးရသည သဘာ၀သယဇာတမားရသညေနရာမားတြငသာ အပစအခတရပစေရးကလပေဆာင ရနမာ ၂၀၁၃ တြင ျဖစႏငဖြယမရဟ ယဆရနသာရေတာသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး တးတကမႈမညေသာ ၿငမးခမးေရး ေဆြးေႏြးပြမားက ၾကညလင အစးရေကာ အစးရမဟတသညလကနကကငတပဖြ႕ ႏစဖကစလးသည အနာဂတစး ပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးတးတကမႈ က ထနးခပေရး၏ အေရးပါပက အျပညအ၀သေဘာေပါကၾကသညက ျပသေနသည။ အခ႕ေသာ အဖြ႕မားကမ စးပြား ေရးအလားအလာရသညဟ ယဆထားသည နယေျမမားက အနညးဆး တစစတ တစပငးျဖစေစသတ႔ရထကသညဟရငးရငးပငေတာငးဆခၾကသည။အခ႕ေနရာမားတြင လကရအခန၌ သပနမား ထနးခပထားျခငးမရသည နယေျမေဒသမား ပငပါရေနသည။ ယခေလလာမႈသည ျမနမာႏငငရ ေခတၿပငအေျခအေနက နားလညရနအတြက အသး၀ငႏငေသာ နယပယသး ရပက ေဖာထတထားသည။ ပထမဆးတစခမာ အနာဂတျမနမာႏငငတြင အာဏာရရရနအတြက အၿပငအကတာ မား လးပနး ေနသည ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥ၏ အေစာပငးအဆငမားအတြငး တငးျပည၏ အခ႕ေနရာမားတြင ျဖစပြားေနသည တကခကမႈမားျမငတကလာျခငး၏ ေနာကကြယတြငရေသာ ဆငျခငပတစချဖစသည။ ဒတယ
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တစခမာ ကခငျပညနယ ႏင ရမးျပညနယေျမာကပငးတြငျဖစပြားေနသည တကခကမႈမားက ယခေလလာမႈရငးျပ သြားရငး ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥ၏ ေႏာငေႏးမႈမား သ႔မဟတ ခနလပထားမႈမားက ကၽြႏပတ႔ေလာမတြကသင ေၾကာငးျဖစသည။ တးပြားလာသည တကခကမႈသည အေျခကမႈတစခအတြက အေျခကေရး သ႔မဟတ အေကာင အထညေဖာေရးႀကးပမးမႈတစခခအတြက အႏရာယတစချဖစၿပး ျမနမာစစတပႏင အစးရလကနကကငတပဖြ႕မား ေမာလငထားခသည ေနာကမးဆကတစခ သ႔ မဟတ အစရသျဖင တကခကမႈမားျဖစေနမည ပစတစရပသ႔ျပန လညေရာကရသြားမည အႏရာယျဖစသည။ ထသ႔ျဖစ လင လ႔အခြငအေရးခးေဖာကမႈမားတးပြားလာဖြယရၿပး ၿငမးခမးေရးလပငနးစဥႏင ႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ ႏစရပ စလးက ကာကြယထနးသမးေစာငေရာကရနတငးျပည ၌လအပသည ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးစနေခၚမႈမားႏငႀကေတြ႕ရမညျဖစသည။ တတယတစခမာ သဘာ၀သယဇာတမားႏငစးပြား ေရးစငတာမားက ထနးခပရနၿပငဆငျခငးက မညသ႔ကငတြယေျဖ ရငးမညက ေစာငၾကညေလလာရနလအပျခငး ျဖစသည။ အစးရႏင အစးရမဟတေသာလကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားၾကား စဥဆကမျပတဆကဆေရးမား၏ အကး ဆကတစခသည မညသကနယေျမတစခက ထနးခပသြားႏငသညျဖစေစ ထေဒသအတြငးရ အျခားအသကအ၀နး သ႔မဟတ ႏငငေရးအဖြ႕အစညးတစခခအတြက အကာအကြယျဖစေစရမည ျဖစသည။ အကယ၍ စးပြားေရးအလား အလာေကာငးသညနယေျမေဒသအားလးက တစစတစေယာကေသာအကတာက ထနးခပထားၿပး ယငးေနရာ တြငပငရသည အၾကမးမဖကအကတာမား၏ အလားအလားမားက ပယဖကခလင ျမနမာႏငင၏ ဒမကေရစႏင စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးတးတကမႈသ႔သြားရာလမးသည သသသာသာပင ရညလားသြားလမမည ျဖစသည။
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ျမနမာ/ဗမာရ ရတပဖြ႕ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး အဆးအတားမား
Obstacles to Police Reform in Myanmar/Burma
Andrew Selth Griffith Asia Institute
[email protected] ၂၀၁၁ တြင စစဘက-အရပဘကလႊတေတာတစရပကမးသစၥာကနဆခၿပးကတညးက ျမနမာ(ဗမာ) က အားလးသရခ ၾကၿပး သမၼတဥးသနးစနဥးေဆာငသည ရညမနးခကႀကးမားေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး အစအစဥတစရပက စတငခသည တင အေလးအနကေလလာျခငးမကငးလြတေနခသည အေရးႀကးေသာအခ႕ နယပယမားကနရေနပရသည။ ဥပမာ အားျဖင တငးျပည၏ ရတပဖြ႕ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးသည “တရားဥပေဒ စးမးေရး” လအပခကႏငပကသကၿပးေျပာၾကားခ သည သမၼတ၏ မညသညမန႔ခြနးတြငမ အထးတလညထည သြငးေျပာၾကားချခငးမရေပ။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျမနမာႏငင ရတပဖြ႕ (MPF) ကတးခ႕ရနႏင ျပနလညပသြငးရန လကရအစအစဥမားက အသစျပနလညအားျဖညရန သညသာမက အရပဘကပဆနေသာ ဟနပနႏင ကင၀တမားေပးရနႏင တငးျပည၏ျပညတြငးလၿခေရး၏ ေသာခက ကေသာ အခ႕ မကႏာစာမားက ပမတာ ၀နယမႈျမငေတြ႕ရရန အစးရကဆႏၵရသညမာ အထငအရားပငျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတြင စစမနၿပး ေရရည တညတ ေသာ ဒမကေရစစနစသ႔ အစအစဥတကအသြငကးေျပာငးရနႏင တရားဥပေဒစးမးေရးအား ေကာငးရနမာ ယငးသ႔ေသာ အဆငမားသည အမနတကယအားျဖင မရမျဖစလအပသည။ တပမေတာသည ျပငပကာကြယေရးႏင တငးရငးသားလကနကကငတပဖြ႕မားႏငရငဆငမည ဆပမႈႏမနငးေရး တ႔ကသ႔ အဓကကေသာ လၿခေရးဆငရာစစဆငေရးမားအတြကသာ တာ၀နရေပလမမည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ကယျပန႔ေသာ ဒမကေရစေဖာေဆာငေရးလပငနးစဥမား၏ အစတအပငးအျဖစ တရားဥပေဒအသက၀ငေရးႏင ျပညတြငးတည ၿငမေရးက ထနးသမးရနအတြက MPF သည ပမႀကးမားေသာ အခနးက႑တြငရမညျဖစသည။ ယခတြငလညး ျမနမာႏငင၏ လေနထထပရာေနရာမား၏ လမးမားထကတြငလညးေကာငး၊ အေရးႀကးပဂၢလမားက အကာအကြယေပးရာတြငလညး ေကာငး၊ အစးရ႐းမားႏင သတမနမစရငမားအျပငဘကတြင ရပေနေသာ လၿခေရး အေစာငမားတြငလညးေကာငး အစမးေရာငယနေဖာငးမားထက အျပာေရာငယနေဖာငးမားပမရေနၿပးျဖစသည။ ျပညတြငးေရးမၿငမသကမႈမားက ကငတြယရာတြင ရတပဖြ႕ပမႀကးမားေသာ အစတအပငးတစရပတြငပါ၀ငၿပး စစတပကမ ၂၀၁၂ ခႏစတြင ရခငတြငျဖစ ပြားခသလ၊ ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစတြင ျမနမာႏငငအလယပငးတြငျဖစပြားခသလ အေရးေပၚအေျခအေနအတြငး အရပဘက အာဏာက အေထာကအကျပရန အသငအေနအထားသာရေနမညဟ လညး ေမာလငႏငသည။ အဆးသတအားျဖင MPF က တးခ႕ျခငး၊ ျပနလညပသြငးျခငးႏင ေခတမေအာငလပေဆာငျခငးကျပလပရမည။ ကလန ေခတကတညးက ပမႀကးမားကာ အာဏာပရၿပးျဖစေသာလညး ပနးတငမာ အမးသား၊ အမးသမးတပဖြ႕၀င ၁၀၀၀၀၀ ေကာရၿပးလၿခေရးတပရငး ၃၄ ရငးရသည တပဖြ႕တစချဖစရနျဖစသည။ ျမနမာဘာသာျဖင လႊငတငထား သည ျပညစေသာMPF၀ဘဆငတြငျမငေတြ႕ခရသညမာတပဖြ႕၀ငစေဆာငးေရးစခနစညႊနးမားႏင အရာရအဆငသ႔ ၀ငေရာကရန လအပခကမားက ျမႇငတငထားၿပးျဖစသည။ တစခနတညးမာပင လကနကကငေဆာငထားျခငးမရ ေသာ အရာရမားက အရပသားမားႏငအနးကပပးတြေဆာငရြကျခငးျဖင ရပရြာအေျချပရတပဖြ႕လပငနးမား ေဆာငရြကေရးက ႀကးႀကးမား မားအာ႐စကရန MPF ၏ သေဘာတရားေရးရာႏင ေလကငေရးအစအစဥမားက လညး ေျပာငးလခၿပးျဖစသည။ ယငး ခဥးကပမႈသည ျမနမာႏငငအတြက လး၀အစမးႀကးမဟတေသာလညး ျပညျပည၀၀ႏင ေအာငျမငစြာအေကာငအထည ေဖာႏငခလင ၁၉၆၂ ခႏစတြင ဗလခပႀကးေန၀ငးအာဏာသမးၿပး ကတညးက ပသြငးထားခသည တငးမာသည ျပညသ႔ စစပစရတပဖြ႕အျဖစမသည ဆန႔ကငဘကအေနအထားသ႔
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ေျပာငးသြားလမေပမည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစမတငမက ယခငစစအစးရတညေထာငခသလ အငဒနးရားတ႔ကသ႔ေသာ အျခားႏငငမား တြင အာဏာရင အစးရ မားေခတလြနေတြ႕ႀကခရသလ ႏငငရတပဖြ႕၏ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးမာ ပစၥကၡအခနတြင မေရမတြကႏငေသာစနေခၚမႈမားရေနသည။ယငးသ႔ေသာအသြငကးေျပာငးမႈမးသညမညသညအခါကမ မလငျမနခ သလ လြယလညးမလြယကခေပ။ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးလပငနးစဥအတြငး အစးရႏင ရတပဖြ႕တ႔ရငဆငႀကေတြ႕ရ ဖြယရသည စနေခၚမႈနယပယအေတာမားမားရသည။ MPF တးခ႕ေရးအလငအျမန ျပလပရန မလြမေရာငသာႀကေတြ႕ရလင တညေဆာကပဆငရာႏင ရငးျမစဖအား တ႔ရမည ျဖစသည။ ထ႔ျပင ျမနမာစစတပသည အလြနတနခးထြားလကရေနဥးမညျဖစသည။ ေထာကလမးေရး လပငနးမား ေဆာငရြကျခငးႏင ျပညတြငးလၿခေရးစစဆငေရးမားကသ႔ေသာ အခ႕နယပယမားတြင MPF ႏင တပမေတာတ႔၏ အကးစးပြားခငး တကလကရေနေပလမမည။ တပမေတာကခြငျပဖြယရလင အငစတကးရငး ႏစခၾကား အခနးက႑ မား၊ တာ၀နမားႏင ဆကစပအကးအျမတမားက သးျခားစခြျခားထားႏငဖြယရေသာလညး ေရာေထြးမႈမားဆကလကရ ႏငေသးသည။ ရတပဖြ႕တြင ကာလၾကာရညအျမစတြယခေသာ ဓေလမားကစၥကလညး ေျဖရငးရမညျဖစသည။ ဥပမာ အားျဖင နကနက႐ႈငး႐ႈငးအျမစတြယေနေသာ ျပနာမားျဖစသည ျခစားမႈႏင အာဏာအလြသးစားလပမႈတ႔သည အျမတျဖတရနခကခေနေပဥးမည။ ထအခနအထ အရပသားမားႏင ရတပဖြ႕ၾကားဆကဆေရးသည ျပနာအျဖစ ဆကလကရေနပါလမမည။ ထ႔အျပင ယငးသ႔ေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးလပငနးမားက ႏငငေတာအျခားအဖြ႕အစညးမားမသးျခားကငးလြတၿပး ေျဖရငးႏငမညမဟတေပ။ သမၼတေျပာခသလပင ျပညသ႔၀နေဆာငမႈေပးသညအဖြ႕အစညးမား၏ စသတမတခက မာတရားဥပေဒစးမးမႈရရႏင မမတတ ဘကမလဘအပခပျခငးျဖစသည။ တရားဥပေဒစးမးမႈႏငပြတတကမႈ အျမျဖစေန မည စနစတစခ၏ခႏငရနမရႏငေသာလညး ကငသးႏငသညတင ၀ေရာဓျဖစေနမည။ စစအစးရ အဓပၸာယသတမတ ခသညအတငး တရားဥပေဒစးမးေရးသည ၿငမ၀ပပျပားေရးေအာကတြင ဆယစႏစမားႏငခကာ တမျမပေနခသည။ ႐း႐းသားသားကငးလြတခြငမားရေသာလညး ရတပဖြ႕၀ငတစေယာကသည ဥပေဒႏငမညဘ အႀကမႀကမျပကငခ လင အေရးယအျပစေပးခရမညျဖစသည။ အကယ၍ အရာရမားက ပါရာဒငးအသစက လကခၿပးမေျပာငးလႏငခလင အစးရ ေဟာငးလကထကကအကငမားအတငးမေျပာငးႏငေသးဟေတြ႕ရလင သတ႔က အစားထးရမညျဖစသည။ အတတႏငအလဥးျပတသားရနလအပသည။ ယငးနယပယတြင အကအညေပးရနအတြက ႏငငျခားအစးရမား၊ ႏငငတကာအငစတကးရငးမားႏင ပဂၢလက ေဖာင ေဒးရငးမားသည ၂၀၁၁ ကတညးက ေနျပညေတာအား ခဥးကပခသည။ သမၼတ၏မန႔ခြနးအမားဆး ကကးကားၿပး ကယ ျပန႔ေသာ တရားဥပေဒစးမးေရးကရနညႊနးျခငးၾကရာ အမားစမာ MPF က တက႐ကအ ကအညမားေပးရနျဖစပရသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး ျမနမာရတပဖြ႕ျပျပငေျပာငးလရနအတြက ႏငငျခားသားမား၏ စြမးေဆာငႏငမႈမာ အကန႔အသတရ သည။ အထးျပလမးညႊနးခကမား၊ နညးပညာအကအညမားႏင ေခတမ လကနကကရယာမားကသား သတ႔ေထာက ပ ႏငသည။ အခြငအေရးအေျချပျခငးႏင ရပရြာအေျချပ ရတပဖြ႕ လပငနးကသ႔ သေဘာတရားမားကသား သတ႔အၾကေပး ႏငသည။ ရတပဖြ႕၏ အေျခခလပငနးမားက ေဆာငရြကရန စြမးေဆာငရညမားတးျမႇငျခငး၊ ရာဇ၀တမႈႏင မတညၿငမ မႈမားက ထနးခပရန စြမးေဆာငရညမား တးျမႇငျခငးႏင ဒမကေရစနညးလမးကရတပဖြ႕မဒယမားက ေဖာေဆာငျခငး တ႔ျပလပသငသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး MPF ၏ အေျခခကေသာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈသည ေနျပညေတာထမ ခငမာေသာ အေထာကအပ၊ တပဖြ႕၏ ပေရာ ဖကရငနယဓေလ၏ ပါရာဒငးအေရြ႕ႏင ရပရြာႏငယၾကညမႈရေသာ ဆကဆေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ တ႔အေပၚတြငသာ မတညသည။ အဆပါကစၥရပမားက ျမနမာေတြကယတငသာ ကငတြယေဆာငရြကႏငမညျဖစသည။ ဒမကေရစနညးလမးကရတပဖြ႕လပငနးမားေဆာငရြကျခငးသည မညသ႔မညပနညးဆသညအေပၚ ႏငငတကာ
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အဆင၌ ကယျပန႔ေသာသေဘာတညမႈမား လြနခသညဆယစႏစကနညးရ ရရခၿပးျဖစသည။ အေျခခမ ၇ ရပက ေလလာသးသပ သမားက ေဖာထတသတမတခၾကသည။ ယငးတ႔မာ ရတပဖြ႕သည ဥပေဒႏငအညတာ၀နထမး ေဆာငျခငး၊ ပေရာဖက ရငနယကင၀တျဖင စညးကမးသတမတျခငး၊ အငအားသးျခငးကအနညးဆးအသးျပ ျခငးျဖင လ႔ဘ၀မားက ကာကြယ ျခငး၊ ျပညသက တာ၀နချခငး၊ ရာဇ၀တမႈမားႀကတငႏမနငးျခငးျဖင လ႔ဘ၀မားႏင ပငဆငမႈမားက ကာကြယျခငး၊ လ႔ အခြငအေရးႏင ဂသကၡာက ကာကြယထနးသမးေစာငေရာကျခငးႏင ခြျခား ဆကဆမႈမျပျခငးတ႔ျဖစၾကသည။ ယငးမ ၇ ရပက ရတပဖြ႕သည အျပညျပညဆငရာလ႔အခြငအေရးစႏႈနးမားအ တငး လကနာေဆာငရြကျခငး၊ အဖြ႕စညးအတြငးႏင ျပငပတြင ထေရာကေသာတာ၀နခမႈက ထနးသမးျခငးႏင ျပညသ႔ဘ၀လၿခမႈရေစရန ေဒသခရပရြာလထမားႏင လကတြ ေဆာငရြကျခငးစသည မသးရပသ႔အကဥးခပ ႏငသည။ ယငးစသတမတခကမားႏငတငးတာၾကညလင ျမနမာႏငင သည ၁၉၉၀ ျပညေႏာငးပငးကတညးကစ ၾကညလင တးတကမႈအခ႕ရခၿပး ၂၀၁၁ တြင အစးရသစတကၿပးေနာက သသာခဖြယရေသာလညး ေရ႕ဆကေလာကလမးရမည မားစြာရေနေသးသည။ သ႔ေသာလညး MPF သည မမကယတငျပနလညပေဖာႏငသငၿပး ထသ႔ဆလင ျမနမာႏငငတြငသမၼတဥးသနးစန၏ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး အစအစဥႏင ပၿပးဒမကေရစဆနကာေပါၾကြယ၀ၿပး လသားဆနေသာလ႔အဖြ႕အစညးတစရပ ဖြ႕ၿဖး ေရးက အဓကကေသာထည၀ငမႈမားျပလပႏငမညအလားအလာျဖစသည။ အေရးႀကးေသာ အရပဘကအ ဖြ႕အစညးတစရပအေနျဖင ေရြးေကာကခအစးရ၊ မမတ႔၏ အျပအမ-ေရြးေကာကခအစးရ၏ ကငသးမႈ- တ႔မတစဆင ျပညသမား အတြက အေျဖရာေပးႏငျခငးသည ျမနမာႏငငတြင တရားဥပေဒစးမးေရး အေကာငအထညေဖာရနႏင မမတ႔၏လပရပမားအတြက ပၿပးတာ၀နခႏငေသာ လၿခေရးတပဖြ႕ျဖစရန လကရႀကပမးမႈမားတြင တးတကမႈ၏ အေရးႀကးေသာ ညႊနး ကနးတစရပျဖစေပလမမည။ ယငးကစၥအားလးတ႔က ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးအေနျဖင ေသာလညးေကာငး၊ ျမနမာ ျပညသမားကယတငကေသာလညးေကာငး ႏစဖကစလးက အနးကပေစာငၾကညရလမ မညျဖစေပေတာသည။
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ျမနမာစးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖ းမႈအလားအလာမား
The Prospects of Myanmar’s Economic Reform and Development
Song Qingrun China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations
ျမနမာစးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈအသစ၏ အလြနအေရးပါေသာအရာမား တငးျပညႏင ျပညသမား ကာလၾကာျမငစြာ အလြနအမငးဆငးရချခငးတ႔သည အစးရသစအား စးပြားေရး ျပျပင ေျပာငးလမႈအသစ ေဖာေဆာငရန တြနးအားေပးသည အဓက ေမာငးႏငအားျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည သယဇာတ ေပါၾကြယပါ၀သည တငးျပညျဖစသည။ သ႔ေသာ ၁၉၈၇ခႏစမစ၍ဆငးရဆးႏငငတစႏငင ျဖစခရသည။ စးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈအသစ၏ အလငစလအေျခအေနမားရသည။ သမၼတဥးသနးစနအစးရသည ႏငင ေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈက အစးရ၏ ဥးစားေပးတစရပအျဖစ ေဖာေဆာငထားရသည။ အထးသျဖင အစးရသစ၏ ပထမႏစအတြငး စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈကမားစြာ အာ႐စကချခငးမရခ။ ေနာကပငးတြင စးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈေနာကကျခငးသည ႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈက ပကစးေစမညဟ ထပတနးအရာရမားက သေဘာ ေပါကခသည။ လြနခသညႏစႏစ၌ အာရပကမၻာတြငျဖစပြားခသည ၀႐နးသနးကား အေျခအေနေၾကာင ျမနမာအာဏာပငမား ေသြးပက ထတလန႔ခရၿပး စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈက အရနျမႇငရန ၎တ႔အေပၚ ဖအား ျဖစေစခသည။ အဘယေၾကာငဆေသာ အာရပေႏြဥးဟ ေခၚဆသည အျဖစအပက၏ အဓကအေၾကာငးအရငးမာ လငယမား အလပအကင မရသညႏႈနး ျမငမားလာျခငးေၾကာငျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစမစ၍ ျမနမာအစးရသစ၏ စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ လပေဆာငမႈမား ႏငငေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမား တစႏစေကာၾကာ ျပလပၿပးေနာက သမၼတဥးသနးစနအစးရသည စးပြားေရး ျပျပင ေျပာငးလမႈ၏ ဒတယအပငးက ျပလပခသည။ ပထမအဆငတြင ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး ျဖစစဥမားက လမးညႊနေမာငး ႏငမည လာမညႏစကာလမားအတြက စးပြား ေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ၏ သပၸနညးကအစအစဥႏင ရညမနးခကႀကး မားေသာ အစအစဥမားက ခမတခသည။ သမၼတ ဥးသနးစနေျပာၾကားခသည ျမနမာစးပြားေရးဥးတညခကမား အနကတစရပမာ စကပးေရးက အေျခခၿပး အျခားစးပြားေရး က႑မား ဘကစဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတးတကေရးဆသည ဥးတညခကအား စကပေရးမတစဆင ေခတမစကမႈ ႏငငေတာ တညေဆာကေရးႏင အျခားစးပြားေရးက႑မား ဘကစဖြၿဖးတးတကေရး တ႔ျဖစသည။ ဒတယအဆငသည ယခင စစအစးရႏင အလြနျခားနားၿပး ဥးသနစနအစးရစး ပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ၏ အေျခခပနးတငမားအနကတစခမာ ျပညသမား၏ဘ၀အေျခအေန တးတကေရးႏင ေကးလကဖြ႕ၿဖးေရး ဆငးရမြေတမႈပေပာကေရးတ႔တြင မားစြာအာ႐စကေရးတ႔ျဖစသည။ တတယအဆငမာ လႊတေတာႏင အစးရတ႔သည ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈပတ၀နးကင တးတကရနႏင စးပြားေရးဖြၿဖးမႈ တးျမငရာတြင တငးျပညက အေထာကအကျဖစေစမည လပေဆာငခကအျဖစ ေခတမမေတာေသာ စးပြားေရး
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ဆငရာ ဥပေဒမားက ျပငဆငျခငးႏင ဥပေဒသစမားက ေဖာေဆာငျပ႒ာနးျခငးျဖစသည။ ဥပေဒသစမားေၾကာင ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ ေခာမြတၿပး ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈမားက ဆြေဆာငရန ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမား၊ ပမလကခ မည လပေဆာငမႈမား က ေဆာငရြကၾက ရနျဖစသည။ စတတအဆငမာျမနမာအစးရသည စးပြားေရးဆငရာ အပခပေရးအဖြ႕အစညးအေျမာကအျမားက အေျပာငးအလ ျပလပခၿပး ၀နေဆာငမႈေပးသည အဖြ႕အစညးသစအေျမာကအျမားက ထေထာငကာ ေရး႐းစြအရာရမားက ထတပယ ၿပး အေရးႀကးေသာ ေနရာမားတြင ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးသမားမားက ခန႔အပခသည။ အထကပါလပ ေဆာငမႈမားအားလး သည အစးရအဖြ႕တြင ျပျပငေျပာငးလသအဆငအတနးက ခငမာေစခၿပး အစးရအရာရအား လး၏ ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရး ႏငပကသကေသာ ေတြးေတာမႈမားကအားေကာငးေစခကာ ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားအတြက အစးရအရာရမား၏အသစတႏင ထေရာကစြာ၀နေဆာငမႈေပးျခငးတ႔ တးတကလာခသည။ ဥပမာအားျဖင ျပညသ မား၏လမႈစးပြားအဆငအတနးက ျမႇင တငျခငးႏင တငးျပညစးပြားေရးအတြက မ႑ငျဖစေသာ အေသးစားႏင အလတစားလပငနးမား (SME) ေနာကထပ ဖြ႕ ၿဖးေရးအတြက ဗဟေကာမတတစရပက ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစ ဇနန၀ါရလ တြင ျမနမာအစးရက ဖြ႕စညးခသည။ အဖြ႕၀င ၂၇ ဥးပါ ၀ငေသာ SME ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးေကာမတက သမၼတဥးသနးစနက ဥးေဆာငၿပး ဒတယ သမၼတႏစဥးျဖစေသာ ေဒါကတာ စငးေမာကခမးႏင ဥးဥာဏထြနးတ႔အပါအ၀င ၀နႀကး ၂၀ ဥးပါ၀ငသည။ ပဥၥမအဆငမာ ႏငငပငလပငနးမားက ပဂၢလကပငျပလပေရးသ႔ အစးရက အားေကာငးေကာငးျဖငေဆာငရြကခၿပး တယလဖနးဆကသြယေရး၊ စြမးအင၊ ဘ႑ာေရးႏင အျခားနယပယမား၏ က႑မားက အစးရ၏ထနးခပထားမႈမား ေျဖေလာေပးခကာအထကပါနယပယမားတြငပဂၢလကအရငးအႏးမား ျပညပအရငးအႏးမားျဖငလပကင ေဆာငရြကခြငျပခသည။ အခ႕ေသာ ႏငငပငလပငနးမားက ေကာပေရးရငးမားအျဖစသ႔ေျပာငးလလမမညျဖစၿပး အခ႕ကမ ပဂၢလ က က႑တးျမႇငရနရညရြယခကျခင ပဂၢလကက႑မားသ႔ခြငလမမညျဖစသည။ ျပျပငေျပာငး လေရးလပငနးစဥမားတြင ပဂၢလကက႑အတြက သငေတာေသာ ပတ၀နးကငတစခဖနတးရနအစးရကလလားၿပး စးပြားေရးအတြငးသ႔ ပမသက ၀ငလႈပရားမႈမားျဖစေစမညျဖစသည။ ဆဌမအဆငမာ ျပညတြငးႏင ႏငငတကာ ကၽြမးကငပညာရငမားႏင အငစတကးရငးမား၏ ဥာဏပညာ၏ အခြငသာ ခကမားက အစးရက အျပညအ၀ယသြားမညျဖစသည။ ၂၀၁၁ ခႏစ ဧၿပလတြင ေဒါကတာဥးျမငဥး ေဆာငေသာ စးပြား ေရးအႀကေပးအဖြ႕က သမၼတဥးသနးစနကဖြ႕စညးခၿပး အႀကေပးပဂၢလမားသည သမၼတသ႔ စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလ ေရးအႀကဥာဏမားတက႐ကေပးႏငမညျဖစသည။ ေကးလကေဒသဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးႏင ဆငးရမြ ေတမႈတကဖကေရး၊ ဘဏႏင ေငြအရငးအႏးေစးကြကမားျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးႏငပကသကေသာ အလပ႐ေဆြးေႏြး ပြႀကးမားကလညး ျမနမာႏငငတြင ကငးပခၿပး ျမနမာရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈညလာခကလညး ႏစစဥကငးပခကာ စးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက တြနးအားေပးရာ တြင အေထာကအကျဖစရန အေမရကနႏင EU ကၽြမးကငသမားစြာကပင ခန႔ထားခသည။ IMF ကၽြမးကငသမား၏ အကအညျဖင ျမနမာႏငငသည ႏစေပါငး ၂၀ ေကာၾကာတညျမခေသာ ေစးကြကေပါကေစးအတငး ေငြလလယသည စနစက ၂၀၁၂ ဧၿပလ ၁ ရကေန႔တြင အဆးသတႏငခၿပး ျပညေထာငစျမနမာႏငငေတာ ဗဟဘဏက အေမရ ကနေဒၚလာ တစေဒၚလာလင ျမနမာ ကပေငြ ၈၁၈ ကပျဖင (တငးျပညတြင ေငြလႊမႈအမားဆးအတြက အသးျပၾကေလ ရခၾကသည ေမာငခေစးကြကတြင အေျခခအားျဖင တစေဒၚလာလင ၈၀၀ ကပမ ၈၂၀ ကပရသည) ေစးႏႈနးသတမတ ေပးခကာ ေနစဥေငြလႊမႈ အမားဆးအတြက အသးျပၾကသည။ ထသ႔လပေဆာငမႈမားအပါအ၀င ျမနမာဘဏမားသည Visa ATM ကြနရကႏငခတဆကခၿပး ATM ႏင E-commerce တ႔ကသ႔ အလကထရြနးနစေငြလႊမားက စတငအသးျပခ ၾကကာ ေနာကပငးတြင ႏငငတကာခရကဒစကတမားေငြလႊျခငးက စတငအသးျပခၾကသည။ သတမအဆငမာ အေနာကႏငငမားက အေရးယပတဆ႔မႈမားက ဆငးငျခငးႏင အမားစကပယဖကေပးျခငး တ႔ျဖငဆြ ေဆာငခေသာ စးပြားေရးႏငႏငငေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက သမၼတဥးသနးစနက လပေဆာငချခငး
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ျဖစသည။ ထ႔ေနာက ျမနမာအစးရသည အာဆယ၊ အေမရကန၊ EU၊ တ႐တ၊ အႏၵယ၊ ေတာငကရးယားႏင အျခားႏငငမားထမာ ႏငငျခား တက႐ကရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမား (FDI) က ဆြေဆာငရန အားသြနခြနစကလပေဆာငခ သည။ ႏစေပါငး ၂၀ ေကာၾကာ စးပြား ေရးပတဆမႈက ႀကးႀကးမားမားခခရၿပး ေၾကြးၿမပမာဏႀကးမားခေသာေၾကာင ျမနမာႏငငသည စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးရန အရငး အႏးႏင နညးပညာမား အသညးအသနလအပေနသည။ ျမနမာစးပြားေရး ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖ းမႈအလားအလာမား- အာရ၏ ထြနးသစစၾကယပြငလား ၂၀၁၂ ၾသဂတလတြင အသြငကးေျပာငးေနဆျမနမာ-အခြငအလမးမားႏငစနေခၚမႈမားဆသည ေခါငးစဥျဖင အစရငခစာ တစေစာငက အာရဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးဘဏက ထတျပနခသည။ ျမနမာသညအာရ၏ ႀကးထြားတးတကမႈ ျမနဆနေသာ စးပြားေရး မားေနာကက လကႏငၿပး တစႏစအတြင ၇ ရာခငႏႈနးမ ၈ ရာခငႏႈနးသ တးတကကာ ၀ငေငြအလယအလတရေသာ ႏငငတစချဖစလာကာ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈမားက အရနအဟနျဖငေနာကထပ ေဖာေဆာငျခငးျဖင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးစနေခၚမႈမားက ေကာလႊားႏငလင ၂၀၃၀ တြင ႏငငသားတစဥးခငး၀ငေငြသည သးဆျဖစလာမညဟ အစရငခန႔စာက ဆသည။ “ျမနမာ ႏငငဟာ အာရရ႕ေနာကထပထြနးသစစၾကယတစပြင ျဖစလာႏငတယဆေပမယ ဒလျဖစလာဖ႔ ျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈက ခငခငျမျမန႔ မဆတမနစေဖာေဆာငဖ႔လအပပါတယ” ဟ အေရ႕အာရ၊ အေရ႕ေတာငအာရႏင ပစဖတဆငရာ ADB ဒတယဥကဌ Stephen Groff က ေျပာဆခသည။ ျမနမာျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးသည အသးအပြငမားဖးပြငလာေနၿပး အရန အဟနရရန စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးတးတကလာကာ ၂၀၁၄ မတလတြငကနဆးမည ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစ ဘ႑ာေရးႏစတြင ျမနမာစး ပြားေရးသည ယခငႏစက ခန႔မနေျခ ၆ဒသမ ၅ ရာခငႏႈနးတးတကခရာမ ၆ ဒသမ ၇၅ ရာခငႏႈနးအထ တးတကရနေမာ မနးထားသညဟလညး ၂၀၁၃ ခႏစ ေမလတြင IMF ကေျပာၾကားခသည။ ျမနမာစးပြားေရးသည အနာဂတတြငဥးေမာရန အခြငေကာငးမားစြာရသည။ ပထမအခကမာ တငးျပညသည ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးလမးေၾကာငးေပၚသ႔ အလငအျမနေရာကရျခငး ျဖစၿပး စကပးေရးႏင စကမႈလပငနးက႑တငးတြင ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏင ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈလအပၿပး သနး ၆၀ ေကာေသာ ျမနမာျပညသမား သည စားသးႏငစြမးအလားအလာပရလာခေသာေၾကာင စးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈတြင အလားအလာႀကး ႀကးမားမားရသည။ ဒတယအခကမာ ျမနမာစးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတြင ႏငငတကာအသငးအ၀ငးထမာ အေထာကအ ပမားစြာရရေသာေၾကာငျဖစသည။ ပါရကလပဟ ေခၚဆၾကသည ကမၻာစးပြားေရးအငအားႀကး ၁၉ ႏငငက ၂၀၁၃ ဇနန၀ါ ရလတြင ျမနမာႏငငအေပၚတငရသည ေၾကြးမ အေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၆ ဘလက ေလာေပးခၿပး ေမလတြင ဂပနႏငငက ျမနမာေၾကြးမ အေမရကနေဒၚလာ ၂ ဘလကေလာေပးခကာ အကအညသစ ယနး ၅၁ ဒသမ ၀၅ သနး (အေမရကန ေဒၚလာ ၅၀၄ သနး) က ဆကလကေပးခသည။ ျမနမာသည ႏငငတကာအ၀ငးအ၀ငးထမ ေခးေငြႏင အကအည မားစြာလညးရရခသည။ တတယအခကမာ ျမနမာႏငငသည အေရ႕ေတာငအာရႏင ေတာငအာရၾကား ကနစညမားစး၀ငရနႏင စးပြားေရး ခတ ဆကျခငးအတြက ေနရာေကာငးတြငရေနျခငးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငတညေထာငလကရေသာ စးပြားေရးဇနမား စြာသည ျမနမာ-ထငးနယျခားေဒသတြင ထား၀ယဆပကမး၊ အႏၵယသမဒၵရာ ကမး ႐းတနးအနးတြင ေကာကျဖ ဆပကမး အနဒ မန ပငလယထြကေပါက ရနကနဆပကမးအနးတြင သလ၀ါဆပကမးမားကသ႔ ေဒသတြငး၌ ထတကနႏင သယယပ႔ ေဆာငေရး စငတာတစချဖစလာမည ျမနမာႏငငက အေထာကအကျဖစေစလမမည။ ယငးထးစးပြားေရးဇနမားသည ျမနမာႏငင၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတးျမငေစမည ပထ၀၀ငဆငရာ အခြငသာခကမားအျဖစ ပမေကာငးမြနစြာေဆာငကဥးလာေပ လမမည။ ထ႔ျပင ျမနမာႏငင၌ သယဇာတလညး ေပါၾကြယ၀သည။ ျမနမာစးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအနာဂတသည ေတာကပေနပရသည။ သ႔ေသာ ယငး၏ျပျပငေျပာငး
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လမႈ ႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးလပငနးစဥမားသည စနေခၚမႈအျပညျဖင ခကခၾကမးတမးသညလမးတစခလညး ျဖစေပလမမည။ ပထမအခကမာ မားစြာေသာ ႏငငတကာရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားသည ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးအေကာသစ၏ အနာဂတက သသ ယရၾကသည။ Transparency International ကထတျပနသည ၂၀၁၂ အကငပကျခစားမႈညႊနးကနးအရ ျမနမာႏငင သည ကမၻာေပၚတြင ျခစားမႈအမားဆးႏငငတစချဖစေနဆျဖစကာ ယငးသည စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငး လမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရး တ႔၏ ႀကးမားေသာ အတားအဆးျဖစသည။ ျမနမာႏငငသည ၂၀၁၁ တြင စစအစးရဆငးသြား ၿပးေနာက အေနာကႏငင ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားအတြက ပြငကာစသာျဖစေနၿပး ပဂၢလကလပငနးမားအေနျဖင ျမနမာႏငငသည အျမတႀကးႀကးမားမား ရႏငသညေနရာေလာ၊ အျခားေနရာသည အဆး႐ႈးနညးမညေလာက ေ၀ခြမရျဖစေနသည။ ဒတယအခကမာ ေခတေနာကကေနေသာ စးပြားေရးျဖစၿပး အထးသျဖင ဘ႑ာေရးစနစကစၥသည စးပြားေရးျပျပင ေျပာငးလမႈအတြက ႀကးမားေသာ အတားအဆးျဖစသည။ တတယအခကမာ တစႏငငလးရ အၾကမးထညႏငအႏထညမားအပါအ၀င ယယြငးပကစးေနေသာ အေျခခ အေဆာက အအမားျဖစၿပး ယငးသညလညး စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးအတြက ႀကးမားၿပး ေရရညျဖစသည ေနာက ထပအဆးအတားတစချဖစသည။ စတတအခကမာ လေလာကေသာ ျပညတြငးႏင ႏငငျခားရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈမရျခငးကလညး ျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးႏင ဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈ အတြက ကန႔သတမႈျဖစသည။ ပဥၥမအခကမာ စးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလေရးလပငနးစဥတြင ျမနမာအမးသားလပငနးမားသည ပအားေကာငးလာမ လား သ႔မဟတ ႏငငျခားကမၸဏမားေၾကာင က႐ႈးသြားမလားဆသညပငျဖစသည။ ျမနမာကမၸဏအမားစမာ အေသး စား ႏင အလယအလတလပငနးမားျဖစၾကၿပး ႀကးမားေသာလပငနးအမားအျပားရသညတင ၄ငးတ႔၏ နညးပညာ၊ စမခန႔ခြမႈ ႏင လပငနးလညပတမႈတ႔မာ ႏငငတကာအဆငေနာကတြငကနေနသည။ ပမၿပးအငအားႀကးသည ႏငငျခားကမၸဏမား ႏင ရငဆငၾကေတြ႕ရသညအခါ ျမနမာအမးသားကမၸဏမား၏ ကၾကမၼာမညသ႔ျဖစမညနညး။ ျပညတြငးႏင ႏငငျခားကမၸ ဏမား မညသ႔ယဥၿပငမညနညး သ႔မဟတ ဟနခကညစြာပးေပါငးေဆာငရြကမညနညး။ ထ႔ေနာက ယငးတ႔က တစခန တညးဖြ႕ၿဖးေအာင မညသ႔ျပမညနညး။ ႏငငတကာအားျဖငလညး အေနာကတငး ရငးႏးျမႇပႏသမားတြင ျမနမာႏငင၌ရငးႏးျမႇပႏရန အရငးအႏးအလအေလာက မရေခ။ အေနာကတငးေစး ကြကစားသးမႈမာလညးနမကသည။ယငးသ႔အေျခအေနဆးမားေၾကာငျမနမာစးပြားေရးဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတြငအေနာကတငး ရငးႏးျမႇပႏမႈႏင ေစးကြကသည ေနရာႀကးႀကးမပါ၀ငႏငမညမဟတေပ။ အကဥးခပနဂး ျမနမာစးပြားေရးျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈသည တငးျပညဖြ႕ၿဖးမႈႏင ျပညသအမားဘ၀ယာသာမႈက တးတကေစေပလမ မည။ တငးျပည၏ ဖြ႕ၿဖးေရးတြင အခြငသာမႈႀကးႀကးမားမားႏင ေတာကပေသာအနာဂတရသည။ သ႔ေသာ ျမနမာႏငငသည စနေခၚမႈမားက သတျပၿပး ေရ႕တြငႀကေတြ႕ ရမည အခကအခမားက ဂ႐တစစကေကာလႊား သငသည။
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