Murray patterson

Ecological Economics Dimension

of Manaaki Taha Moana

Matariki Ahunganui Symposium Tauranga 4 July 2014

Presentation by: Professor Murray Patterson School of People, Environment and Planning Massey University

Outline of Presentation

Ø  What is Ecological Economics?

Ø  Progress so Far (Please stop me talking here)

Ø  Future work Planned

What is Ecological Economics?

Neoclassical Economists

Ecological Economist

Goods and Services

Labour

$ Purchases

$ wages and salaries

Circular Flow Model of the Economy: Neoclassical Economics

Goods and Services

Labour

$ Purchases


Circular Flow Model of the Economy: Neoclassical Economics

Goods and Services

Labour

$ Purchases


Ecological Economics Model of the Economy

Resources Water, Energy,

Minerals, Biomass etc.

Pollutants CO2,

Wastewater, Contaminants, Solid Wastes

etc.

Pollutants CO2,

Wastewater, Solid

Wastes etc.

Socio-Economic System

Biosphere

Resources Pollutants

Ecosystem Services

Ecological Economics Model of the Economy #2

•  Supply and Demand Analysis – aimed at defining the equilibrium price

•  Strong Belief in Market solutions to societal problems

•  Methodological Monism

•  Not one over-arching theory – draws on a variety of biophysical and social theories

•  Cautious about market solution, stronger belief in participatory democracy

•  Methodological Pluralism Integrative

Neoclassical Economics Ecological Economics

•  Supply and Demand Analysis – aimed at defining the equilibrium price

•  Strong Belief in Market solutions to societal problems

•  Methodological Monism

•  Policy Goal = Maximise Economic Efficiency

•  Technologically optimistic

•  Trade-offs

•  Not one over-arching theory – draws on a variety of biophysical and social theories

•  Cautious about market solution, stronger belief in participatory democracy

•  Methodological Pluralism Integrative

•  Policy Goals= Sustainability, Economic Efficiency and Social Equity

•  More cautious about the role of Technology

•  Limits (Ecological such as carrying capacity)

Neoclassical Economics Ecological Economics

PROGRESS

SO FAR

-  Mediated Modelling of the Economy -  Detailed Analysis of Tauranga Economy -  Tentative Work on Value of Ecosystem Services

Mediated Modelling Using Stella

Natural Capital

Natural Capital

Population

Population

Eco Sy stem Serv ices

Eco System Services

Economic Prof ile of Tauranga

Economic Profile ofTauranga

External Factors

External Factors

Fresh Water…nt to Harbour

Fresh Water from Catchment to Harbour

Actions

Actions

Tauranga Harbour and its catchment -

The Tauranga Harbour is a unique estuary in the Bay of Plenty. It is highly productive for food production. Various iwi have lived in the area for centuries. The Harbour is of critical cultural and spiritual significance for iwi. Since the 1950's European settlers developed the area through forestry, port activities and increasingly through horticulture and dairy farming, attracting peoples residing and visiting the area. This has changed the land use and cover in the catchment considerably. The natural capital, underpinning the ecosystem services the Tauranga Harbour provides for all, is under pressure. At the same time, the flow of goods and services measured in economic terms, have increased. How are these trends interconnected? This model aims to re-tell the story and support the understanding among a group of local stakeholders, based on whose dialogue this model was constructed.

Model overview

Overview of Mediated Model

Population in Tauranga

+

Population change

History population~

Population Growth Rate due to attractiveness

Population increase

Population Pressure

Ecosystem value of Tauranga harbour catchment

GDP Tauranga & Western Bay of Plenty

Maximum urban area in ha

Migration due to GDP~

Urban density

Migration due to value of ES~ tourist year equivalents GDP per capita

Population

Stella Population Module

Sea Grass in ha

Change in Wetlands and Saltmarshes

Indigenous Forest on steep slopes in ha

Introduced Forest in ha

Pasture in ha

Horticulture and Cropping in ha

Bare Earth in ha

Urban and Infrastructure in ha

Rest of Tauranga Harbour area in Ha

Conv horti to Esturine wetlands

urban growth

bare earth growth

Wetlands Palustrine and riparian in ha

Mangroves in ha

Conversion harbor to mangrove

Conversion Introduced Forest to Bare Earth

Wetlands Estuarine and Saltmarshes in ha

Margrove growth rate 2

Conversion seagrass to harbour

Seagrass death rate

Conv Wetland to Pasture

Conv Pasture to Cropping

Conv horti to palustrine wetlands

Conversion Pasture to Indigenous Forest

Conversion Indigenous Forest to Introduced Forest

Conversion from Pasture to Introduced Forest

Scrubs

Conv scrubs to pasture

Conv Scrub ton intro forest

Grassland

Conv grass to pasture

Wetland restoration rate~

Other natural capital

Noname 2

Forest restoration rate~

Land use and land/sea cover history (red) and modelled changes in the catchment. The data somewhat matches the landuse categories identified by stakeholders, but not conclusive.

Stella Land-use Module

Mediated Modelling (Stella)

Advantages •  Developed through Stakeholder Participation (often the process more important than the end-product)

•  Reasonably Transparent, and Good Stakeholder Buy-in

•  Good at modelling broad relationships and how they change over time (10-20 year time frame). Good for scoping purposes.

Mediated Modelling (Stella)

Advantages •  Developed through Stakeholder Participation (often the process more important than the end-product)

•  Reasonably Transparent, and Good Stakeholder Buy-in

•  Good at modelling broad relationships and how they change over time (10-20 year time frame). Good for scoping purposes.

Dis-Advantages •  No spatial detail (most of the issues we are dealing with have a strong spatial component) •  Many of the variables in the Tauranga model are ‘soft’ and not scientifically

rigorous –eg, indexes are often

•  Much of the data is broad-brush –eg, 3-4 land-use-classes (42 land-uses-classes in V2)

Economic Analysis of the Tauranga Economy

§  Detailed Analysis of 48 Sectors

§  2001-2012 time - series §  Strong emphasis on Input-output analysis (Inter-relationships between sectors in the economy)

§  Each sector characterised in terms §  Employment §  GDP contribution, growth rate over last decade, §  exports (internationally, inter-regionally), §  labour productivity, §  location quotient (degree of regional specialisation)

§  Labour market, Housing Market, Population Analysis.

Structure and Dynamics of the Tauranga Economy Manaaki Taha Moana Research Monograph # 14

3.45 Education

Description ANZSIC Codes covered:

• P8410 – Preschool Education • P8421 – Primary Education • P8422 – Secondary Education • P8423 – Combined Primary and Secondary Education • P8424 – Special School Education • P8431 – Higher Education (e.g. University) • P8432 – Technical and Further Education • P8440 -‐ Other Education (e.g. Ballet School, Drama School, Music Teaching).

Main commodity supplied in TCE:

• Education

Economic Overview Education employed approximately 6.6% of total employment in the Western Bay of Plenty sub-‐region. Education is not a strong point of the region, perhaps because it does not have its own university, and therefore employs a smaller percentage than the New Zealand average of 8.0%.

The largest education provider in the TCE is Bay of Plenty Polytechnic with 6,702 students enrolled. Other education providers are Te Wangana o Aotearoa, Bethlehem tertiary institute, The University of Waikato campus in Tauranga, and a number of high schools, Intermediates, Primary and early childhood centres.

2010 Figures: Employment = 4,307 Rank = 5th Average Employment Growth Rate = 4.3% p.a GDP = $244 million Rank = 12th Interregional Exports = $0 International Exports= $17m Location Quotient = 0.91 Labour Productivity= 42.72 Value-‐Added Multiplier = 1.93

Natural Capital

Natural Capital

Population

Population

Eco Sy stem Serv ices

Eco System Services

Economic Prof ile of Tauranga

Economic Profile ofTauranga

External Factors

External Factors

Fresh Water…nt to Harbour

Fresh Water from Catchment to Harbour

Actions

Actions

Tauranga Harbour and its catchment -

The Tauranga Harbour is a unique estuary in the Bay of Plenty. It is highly productive for food production. Various iwi have lived in the area for centuries. The Harbour is of critical cultural and spiritual significance for iwi. Since the 1950's European settlers developed the area through forestry, port activities and increasingly through horticulture and dairy farming, attracting peoples residing and visiting the area. This has changed the land use and cover in the catchment considerably. The natural capital, underpinning the ecosystem services the Tauranga Harbour provides for all, is under pressure. At the same time, the flow of goods and services measured in economic terms, have increased. How are these trends interconnected? This model aims to re-tell the story and support the understanding among a group of local stakeholders, based on whose dialogue this model was constructed.

Model overview

R a n k (2010)

Highest Employing Sectors

Rank (2010)

Highest Contribution to GDP

Rank (2010)

Top Exporting Sectors

Rank (2010)

Highest Location Quotient

1

Retail Trade 1 Construction 1 Other Food Manufacturing

1 Services to Agriculture, Hunting and Trapping

2 Health and Community Services

2 Wholesale Trade 2 Wholesale Trade 2 Petroleum and Industrial Chemical Manufacturing

3 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

3 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

3 Air Transport, Services to Transport and Storage

3 Water and Rail Transport

4 Construction 4 Health and Community Services

4 Dairy Product Manufacturing

4 Horticulture and Fruit Growing

5 Education 5 Retail Trade 5 Horticulture and Fruit Growing

5 Electricity Generation and Supply

6 Accommodation, Restaurants and Bars

6 Electricity Generation and Supply

6 Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing

6 Other Food Manufacturing

7 Wholesale Trade 7 Ownership of Owner-Occupied Dwellings

7 Retail Trade (?) 7 Road Transport

8 Services to Agriculture, Hunting and Trapping

8 Real Estate 8 Accommodation, Restaurants and Bars

8 Fishing

9 Road Transport 9 Other Food Manufacturing

9 Water and Rail Transport

9 Health and Community Services

10 Horticulture and Fruit Growing

10 Finance 10 Wood Product Manufacturing

10 Real Estate

Services to agriculture, hunting and trapping 2.72 Petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing 2.66 Water and rail transport 2.07 Horticulture and fruit growing 1.82 Electricity generation and supply 1.80 Other food manufacturing 1.76 Road transport 1.46 Fishing 1.33 Health and community services 1.31 Real estate 1.24 Wood product manufacturing 1.23 Local government administration services and civil defence 1.21 Retail trade 1.20 Construction 1.19 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 1.14 Machinery and equipment manufacturing 1.06 Structural, sheet, and fabricated metal product manufacturing 1.05 Air transport, services to transport and storage 1.02 Transport equipment manufacturing 1.02 Furniture and other manufacturing 1.01

Personal and other community services 0.95 Accommodation, restaurants and bars 0.94 Wholesale trade 0.92 Education 0.91 Other farming 0.88 Business services 0.84 Services to finance and investment 0.80 Beverage, malt and tobacco manufacturing 0.73 Rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing 0.73 Cultural and recreational services 0.71 Finance 0.69 Textile and apparel manufacturing 0.62 Forestry and logging 0.55 Communication services 0.52 Mining and quarrying 0.52 Printing , publishing and recorded media 0.51 Central government administration, defence, public order and safety services 0.51 Insurance 0.26 Gas supply 0.25 Livestock and cropping farming 0.24 Basic metal manufacturing 0.20 Dairy cattle farming 0.20 Meat and meat product manufacturing 0.06 Dairy product manufacturing 0.06

Higher concentration the national average Lower concentration the national average

Ecosystem Services in Tauranga

Harbour

Very Tentative Valuation And what could be done, based on our Nelson Work (2015)

Table 1 Estimate of the Value ($) Ecosystem Services Derived from the Tauranga Harbour_________________________________________________________

Ecosystem TypeArea (hectares) $/ha/yr

Total Value of Ecosystem Services ($ million/year )_____________ __________ __________ ___________________

Mangroves 92 23,893 2Seagrass 4,440 45,451 202Other 15,468 16,792 260Total 20,000 23,187 464_________________________________________________________

Economic Value –  Profit of the Port of Tauranga = $45 million/year –  Knock on Effects in the local Economy = about $90million/year –  Total Economic Impact of the Port = $135 million/year

Value of Harbour Ecological Services (initial estimate) –  $464 million/year

•  Ecological Services of Seagrass = –  trapping and stabilizing sediments –  nutrient recycling –  creation of high primary productivity –  provision of habitat for animal and plant species.

•  Loss of Value Seagrass –  44.4 km2 (1959) to 29.3 km2 (1997) –  $54 million/year a loss –  (Port of Tauranga Profits = $45 million/year)

Intertidal

Seagrass

Coastal Waters

Salt Marshes $90 mil/yr

Estuaries

Sand Beaches & Dunes $516 mil/yr

Intertidal

Reefs & Lagoons ($17 mil/yr)

Rapid Assessment of : Economic Value of Coastal Ecosystem Services: Nelson Bays

Total Value= $3,285 million/yr (significant double-counting)

GDP Nelson Economy = about $3,500 million/yr

$1,461 million/yr

$445 million/yr

$432 mil/yr

$322 mil/yr

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

$/ hectare / year (Coastal Ecosystem Services in Golden and Tasman Bays)

Example: ‘Detailed Inventory’ Results

Future Work

– Bringing all of the strands together

Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment:

‘From Mountains to Sea’

Catchment Land-Use Model

50+ land use classes

48 interconnected sectors

Species Response Curves

Cumulative Impacts Model

Ecology of the Harbour

Tauranga Economy

For each 48 sectors: -  Pollutants emitted -  Resources uses

Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)

10 x 10 metre resolution







Tauranga Economy

Energy Land




Resources Freshwater, Energy, Minerals, Land, Biomass

Pollutants Solid Wastes, Water Pollutants, C02, Toxins

Supporting Services Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage Ø Sediment Cycling Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic

Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio - prospecting Ø Clean Water

Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering

Cultural Services Ø Aesthetic Ø Spiritual Ø Non - Use Values (Option, Bequest, Existence) Ø Educational, Scientific Ø Amenity

Security Ø Personal Safety Ø Security from Disasters Ø Secure Resource Access Basics of Life Ø Adequate Livelihood Ø Nutritious Food Ø Shelter Ø Access to Goods

Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity

Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect Ø Ability to Help Others

Human Wellbeing Ecosystem Services Framework







Tauranga Economy


















Tauranga Economy

Energy Land






Cultural Health Index

GDP Other Indicators















Tauranga Economy

Energy Land




Drivers

Actions



Cultural Health Index

GDP Other Indicators









Thank you

Neoclassical Economics

Environmental

Economics

Resource Economics

Ecology

Ecological Economics Model #3

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

$/ hectare / year (Coastal Ecosystem Services in Golden and Tasman Bays)

Example: ‘Detailed Inventory’ Results

Net Primary Production

Water Regulation

Waste Treatment

Food Production

Aesthetic & Recreational

Climate Regualtion

Disturbance Regulation

Raw Materials

Water Supply

Gas regulation

Salt Marshes, Economic Value of Ecosystem Services, Nelson Bays

Total = $115 mil/year

Base land use maps

•  Developed methodology

•  Compiled test datasets

•  Programmed statistical analysis •  Rural – Agribase, LCDB, business frame •  Urban – statistical approach based on clusters analysis

and logistic regression

•  Convert from vector to raster

•  Validate with Manaaki Te Awanui

How does it work? Land use

Time Loop

&

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

& interaction weights

Suitability

&


Transition Rule Change cells to the land use for which they have the highest transition potential until regional demands are met

Zoning

&


Land use at time T+1

Transition Potentials

=


Stochastic perturbation

Documents

Murray patterson