11
1 Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014 Investment Professionals B. Scott Minerd Global Chief Investment Officer Anne B. Walsh, CFA Assistant Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income James Pass Senior Managing Director, Portfolio Manager Allen Li, CFA Managing Director, Portfolio Manager Chris Randall Vice President, Trader David A. Stone Analyst, Credit Research Perry Hollowell, CFA, CMT, CAIA Vice President, Investment Research May 2014 Municipal Market Outlook Relative Value and Tight Supply The Barclays Municipal Bond Index posted strong returns of 3.32 percent in the first quarter of 2014, outperforming the Credit Suisse High Yield Index, the Institutional Leveraged Loan Index and even some equity indices, such as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Underpinning this solid municipal bond performance has been improving fundamentals at state and local governments, which have made progress fixing structural problems like pension shortfalls that have plagued issuers and curtailed market returns. Despite these returns, municipal bond funds recorded an outflow of $1.2 billion in the first quarter. However, demand from investors should return just as supply constraints may restrict annual issuance. We expect municipal bond issuance will fall to $280-$300 billion in 2014. That would be the lowest issuance volume in a decade as annual volume has averaged over $350 billion since 2000. We expect prices of municipals to rise further in 2014 as a result of the improved state macroeconomic outlook combined with reduced supply of municipal bonds. Some investors have avoided municipal bonds because of negative attention surrounding troubled issuers such as Puerto Rico, Illinois and Detroit. Nevertheless, we believe there is still relative value to be found in this supply-constrained environment. We find particular value in the often neglected 10- to 15-year mid-range maturity for municipal bonds. Report Highlights § Improving economic growth does not translate into more bond issuance: Improving economic fundamentals are unlikely to translate into additional municipal bond issuance. A combination of structural, political and technical forces will conspire to keep the overall volume of new and refunding issuance low. This should be a tailwind for prices. § States are reluctant to issue new debt: Most major spending by state and local governments, such as Medicaid and pensions, is mandatory and has increased in recent years. As a result, states have less flexibility to meet new interest payments and have become more reluctant to issue new bonds. § The wave of refinancing is past: Refunding high-interest debt with low-interest debt is a critical supply component of the municipal bond market. Because many of the typical candidates have been refunded already, we do not expect refunding volume to represent a significant portion of annual issuance this year.

Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

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Page 1: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

1Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

Investment Professionals

B. Scott Minerd

Global Chief Investment Officer

Anne B. Walsh, CFA

Assistant Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income

James Pass

Senior Managing Director,

Portfolio Manager

Allen Li, CFA

Managing Director, Portfolio Manager

Chris Randall

Vice President, Trader

David A. Stone

Analyst, Credit Research

Perry Hollowell, CFA, CMT, CAIA

Vice President, Investment Research

May 2014

Municipal Market OutlookRelative Value and Tight Supply

The Barclays Municipal Bond Index posted strong returns of 3.32 percent in the first quarter

of 2014, outperforming the Credit Suisse High Yield Index, the Institutional Leveraged Loan

Index and even some equity indices, such as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Underpinning

this solid municipal bond performance has been improving fundamentals at state and local

governments, which have made progress fixing structural problems like pension shortfalls that

have plagued issuers and curtailed market returns.

Despite these returns, municipal bond funds recorded an outflow of $1.2 billion in the first

quarter. However, demand from investors should return just as supply constraints may restrict

annual issuance. We expect municipal bond issuance will fall to $280-$300 billion in 2014.

That would be the lowest issuance volume in a decade as annual volume has averaged over

$350 billion since 2000.

We expect prices of municipals to rise further in 2014 as a result of the improved state

macroeconomic outlook combined with reduced supply of municipal bonds. Some investors

have avoided municipal bonds because of negative attention surrounding troubled issuers

such as Puerto Rico, Illinois and Detroit. Nevertheless, we believe there is still relative value

to be found in this supply-constrained environment. We find particular value in the often

neglected 10- to 15-year mid-range maturity for municipal bonds.

Report Highlights§ Improving economic growth does not translate into more bond issuance: Improving

economic fundamentals are unlikely to translate into additional municipal bond issuance.

A combination of structural, political and technical forces will conspire to keep the overall

volume of new and refunding issuance low. This should be a tailwind for prices.

§ States are reluctant to issue new debt: Most major spending by state and local governments,

such as Medicaid and pensions, is mandatory and has increased in recent years. As a result,

states have less flexibility to meet new interest payments and have become more reluctant to

issue new bonds.

§ The wave of refinancing is past: Refunding high-interest debt with low-interest debt is

a critical supply component of the municipal bond market. Because many of the typical

candidates have been refunded already, we do not expect refunding volume to represent a

significant portion of annual issuance this year.

Page 2: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

2Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

Municipal Market Scorecard As of Month End

Tax-Exempt Municipals

Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14Spread Yield Spread Yield Spread Yield Spread Yield

10-year AAA GO (30) 2.77% (26) 2.53% (37) 2.40% (35) 2.49%

10-year A GO 50 3.57% 47 3.26% 29 3.06% 33 3.17%

30-year AAA GO 28 4.19% 25 3.85% 14 3.72% 11 3.65%

30-year A GO 109 5.00% 101 4.61% 86 4.44% 84 4.38%

Taxable Municipals

Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14Spread Yield Spread Yield Spread Yield Spread Yield

10-year AAA GO 70 3.71% 76 3.41% 79 3.45% 79 3.51%

10-year A GO 143 4.44% 137 4.02% 135 4.01% 135 4.07%

30-year AAA GO 84 4.78% 71 4.31% 61 4.20% 66 4.22%

30-year A GO 138 5.32% 131 4.91% 129 4.88% 132 4.88%

Source: Barclays. Data as of March 31, 2014.

Barclays Municipal Bond Index Returns by Type Barclays Municipal Bond Index Returns by Ratings

Source: Thomson Reuters. Spreads relative to Treasuries for taxable municipals, and Libor for tax-exempt municipals. Data as of March 31, 2014.

-6%

-8%

-4%

-2%

2%

0%

8%

6%

4%

General Obligation Revenue Build America Bonds(BABs)

2014 YTD 2013

3.06%

-2.33%

6.57%

-2.91%

3.61%

-5.56%

6%

4%

-6%

-8%

8%

-2%

-4%

2%

0%

AAA AA A BBB

2014 YTD 2013

2.22% 2.95%

3.91%

-2.12% -2.56%

-7.17%

-1.61%

5.52%

Source: Barclays. Data as of March 31, 2014.

Page 3: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

3Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

The Fundamental Outlook for Municipalities Increased Revenues and Reduced Expenditures Abound

State tax collections have grown for 15 consecutive quarters and are now above their

pre-recession peak, with 14 states experiencing double-digit, year-over-year increases in

tax revenues for the second half of 2013. An in-depth look at the Statement of Activities

– the income statement for states – shows a net positive improvement for a majority of

U.S. states for fiscal year 2013. Most U.S. states now have surplus revenues, allowing for

the replenishment of “rainy-day” funds. There has also been a shift from public to private

employment that helps states. Overall, government employment fell by 3.7 percent from

October 2008 to January 2013.

Among local governments, the economies of all but seven of 363 metropolitan areas will grow

this year, according to the U.S. Conference of Mayors. Cities are forecasting their first revenue

increases since 2006, according to the National League of Cities survey, and a continued

housing recovery should continue to bolster local revenues.

Improving fundamentals are reflected in reduced issuance of short-term notes. In 2013,

municipalities issued $46 billion of short-term, fixed-rate notes maturing in 18 months or less,

the lowest level since 2006. Municipalities typically issue notes to bridge cash shortfalls or as

temporary project funding ahead of issuing longer-dated bonds. The reduction in short-term

note sales suggests an improving cash flow at state and local governments.

Source: Moody’s, Bloomberg. Data as of March 31, 2014. Except for New Mexico and Puerto Rico where 2012 data was used.

CA

NV

AZ

UT

IDOR

WA MT

WY

CO

NM

AK

TX

OK

KS

NE

SD

NDMN

IA

MO

AR

LAMS AL

HI

FL

GA

TN

KY

IL

WI MI

IN OH

WV

SC

NC

VA

PA

NY

VTNH

ME

MARI

CTNJ

DEMD

PR

-$500M or more -$500M to $0M $0M to $500M +$500M or more

Fiscal Surplus/De�cits (Fiscal year-end 2013)

In the majority of U.S. states, the performance of the General Fund for fiscal year 2013 improved due to increases in revenues and a reduction of expenses.

The Improving U.S. Fiscal Situation is Broad Based

Page 4: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

4Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

The Problem ChildrenThe strength of the Puerto Rico general obligation offering showed an appetite for below investment grade municipal bonds. The March 11 deal was increased by $700 million to $3.5 billion and was still oversubscribed by more than three times. In addition, the offering was priced to yield 8.727 percent, about 15 basis points tighter than Puerto Rico GO issues yielded at the start of the year.

Source: Moody’s, Bloomberg. Data as of March 12, 2014.

• The city’s original Plan of Adjustment treated pensioners as superior to most bondholders, a surprise that triggered concerns over the validity and strength of bond covenants.

• For the city to exit bankruptcy, counterparties must agree to the Plan of Adjustment. If the court approves a proposed swap counterparty settlement, it would be a significant first step.

• After a successful general obligation financing, attention should shift to the health of the economy.

• Public corporations, however, still face challenges as the Commonwealth considers different reform measures to provide funding to corporations.

• Despite weak economic performance, General Fund Revenues (tax receipts) have exceeded expectations through the first six months of FY 2014.

• Pension reform challenges and the upcoming gubernatorial primaries are dominating media coverage.

• Spreads on Illinois general obligation bonds and Build Illinois Bonds continue to tighten, indicating the market’s approval of pension reform and improving confidence in Illinois.

• Outstanding unpaid bills in FY 2014 exceed $4.8 billion, down $2.5 billion from February 2013 — a sign of progress that also highlights the structural imbalances facing the state.

DETROIT, MICHIGAN PUERTO RICO ILLINOIS

Problem Children New Developments for Detroit, Puerto Rico and Illinois

While the fundamental economic outlook for municipals is improving, sector performance

and capital flows are vulnerable to headline risks from a few troubled issuers. Puerto Rico

has been one such case, but its successful sale in March of $3.5 billion of general obligation

bonds at 93 cents on the dollar brought much-needed liquidity to the Caribbean island.

The improvement in Puerto Rico’s fiscal situation does not mean the negative attention

is over for the entire sector. Investors’ attention will likely now focus on Detroit and its

various restructuring proposals, which should keep it in the headlines and should add

to market volatility.

Supply Headwinds Constraints on Municipalities Hinder Annual Issuance

U.S. states are still recovering slowly from the 2007-2009 recession, which according to the

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) caused the greatest ever recorded decline in

state tax revenues. Now, despite improving economies and recovering tax revenues, states

remain reluctant borrowers, and so, municipal bond issuance this year may still be anemic.

Issuance comprises new debt and refunding. Notwithstanding the improved economic

outlook and healthier state budgets, new issuance may be constrained by uncertainty

over federal government funding, increasing state revenue volatility, crowding out of debt

servicing by ongoing spending, and a reluctance to issue new debt ahead of upcoming

gubernatorial elections. Refunding will likely be lower because low interest rates in recent

years led to a surge in refinancing and also because interest rates are expected to trend

higher so refunding will be unattractive at higher interest rates.

Page 5: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

5Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

New Issuance SubduedCrowding Out Effects U.S. state and local governments face skyrocketing pension and healthcare costs for

teachers, firefighters, police and other public sector employees. With the cost of many of

these ongoing expenditures effectively on autopilot – locked in place by laws or union

contracts – and expected to grow, the ability for municipalities to fund other projects is

severely hampered. According to the State Budget Crisis Task Force, “Pension funds for state

and local government workers are underfunded by approximately a trillion dollars according

to their actuaries and by as much as $3 trillion or more if more conservative investment

assumptions are used.”

In addition to pension and public sector employee healthcare costs, Medicaid – the fastest

growing expense for states – is consuming a larger portion of state funds. The State Budget

Crisis Task Force noted that: “Medicaid programs are growing rapidly because of increased

enrollments, escalating healthcare costs and difficulty in implementing cost reduction

proposals. At recent rates of growth, state Medicaid costs will outstrip revenue growth by a

wide margin.” Medicaid spending accounted for 23.7 percent of total state spending in fiscal

2012, the single largest component of total state expenditures, and is expected to grow to

24.4 percent in fiscal 2013. The annual average growth rate of Medicaid expenditures from

2012 to 2021 is projected to be 6.4 percent, according to the 2012 Actuarial Report on the

Financial Outlook for Medicaid.

Just as Medicaid expense is increasing for states, federal support to states is decreasing.

On two occasions the U.S. Congress has passed temporary increases to Federal Medical

Assistance Percentage (FMAP) payments. The most recent increase occurred in 2009 as part

of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The increased federal funds were

a significant source of fiscal relief for states resulting in declines in state Medicaid spending

in 2009 and 2010 for the first time in the program’s history. The absence of federal support

led to a sharp increase in state Medicaid spending in 2011 and 2012. A strong recovery in

revenues and a reduction in the unemployment rate for states moderated the effect in 2013;

however, the absence of federal support will ultimately exacerbate the Medicaid funding

problem for states in the coming years.

State Spending for Medicaid Declines in 2009 and 2010 Due to the ARRAIncreased federal funds were a significant source of fiscal relief for states, resulting in declines in state Medicaid spending in 2009 and 2010 for the first time. However, the absence of federal support will ultimately exacerbate the Medicaid funding problem for states in the future.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation.

20%

25%

30%

15%

0%

5%

-15%

-10%

10%

-5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5.5% 4.9%

10.1%

5.7%

-10.9%

-4.9%

16.1%

23.6%

3.1%4.0%3.0%

Enhanced FMAP / Federal Fiscal Relief

(2003-2005)

ARRA Enhanced FMAP(2009-2011)

Expiration of ARRAEnhanced FMAP

Page 6: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

6Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

Ongoing expenses such as pension contributions, public sector healthcare and Medicaid

cannot be financed by issuing tax-exempt debt, which is used to fund capital expenditures,

such as public transport, schools and hospitals. The majority of debt issued by states to fund

capital expenditures has fixed-rate coupons. As the share of ongoing expenditures increases,

the capacity to service new debt for capital expenditures is crowded out.

Municipal issuers that are budget-constrained could use alternative forms of financing

to fund capital expenditures, such as capital appreciation bonds (CABs). Unlike fixed-rate

bonds, CABs do not make interest or principal payments until maturity, reducing the

cash flow burden on the issuer. For example, CABs can be used to fund new schools in

anticipation of future population growth and additional tax revenues. CABs, however,

are politically unpopular because interest is not paid during the life of the bond, instead

compounding and ultimately increasing total borrowing costs for the issuer. States such as

California and Texas have proposed legislation to limit the use of CABs because they are

seen as kicking the can down the road to future taxpayers.

Uncertainty of Federal Government Transfers to States Puts More Pressure on State Revenues

Federal funding for many state and local services is on track to hit its lowest level in

decades. Federal funding represents about 25 percent of state revenues, but battles over

the federal budget and the U.S. debt ceiling in 2013 have had spillover effects on state and

local governments, leading to sharp cuts in federal funding for schools and other grants.

Additional cuts in federal funding and potential changes to the federal tax code are possible

and could materially impact states’ spending. Legislators may be reticent to increase

borrowing in the face of uncertainty regarding federal funding or matching grants.

Revenue Volatility Focuses States on Building Reserve Funds

Although state tax revenues have rebounded, the share of state revenue from economically

sensitive and volatile sources such as personal income, sales and corporate income taxes

has increased from 38 percent in 1950 to 71 percent today. The volatility of this revenue

stream is higher because income tax receipts have become increasingly driven by the

highest earners, whose incomes are highly correlated to financial markets because of

capital gains. The increasing reliance on economically sensitive tax receipts makes states

even more vulnerable to budget gaps. According to the State Budget Crisis Task Force,

tax revenues declined by more than 12 percent between the 2008 and 2010 fiscal years

– a far greater decline than in any past recession. As a result, issuing new fixed-rate debt

to finance capital expenditures will likely take a backseat to building up reserve funds to

manage revenue volatility.

Page 7: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

7Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

Gubernatorial Elections Reduce Appetite of Legislators to Increase Borrowing

There will be 36 gubernatorial elections in 2014, including the nine largest states by

population. Implementation of the Affordable Care Act and pension reform is likely to be at

the forefront of the political debate. Democrats and Republicans are under pressure to cut

spending, lower taxes and replenish “rainy-day” funds. Although many states are projecting

2014 budget surpluses helped by higher-than-expected tax revenues, the upcoming

gubernatorial elections may diminish the appetite of governors and legislators to issue new

debt to fund projects.

2014 Gubernatorial Elections

Source: National Governors Association.

The Bulk of Refunding Has Already OccurredRefunding high coupon-yield debt with low coupon-yield debt is an important component of

the municipal market. Without the supply from such refinancing of bonds, there would be a

significant imbalance between investor demand and annual issuance. The typical refunding

candidates are new money bonds sold with a 10-year call provision that are five to six years

into the life of the bond with a few years remaining until the first call date. In the situation

where interest rates have declined but the bonds are not yet callable, issuers can conduct an

advance refunding by issuing refunding bonds and putting proceeds in an escrow account of

U.S. Treasury debt until the bonds can be called. The period of low interest rates over the past

five years has accelerated refunding. The proportion of refunding issuance to total annual

issuance has steadily increased from 14 percent in 2000 to 42 percent in 2013.

CA

NV

AZ

UT

IDOR

WA MT

WY

CO

NM

AK

TX

OK

KS

NE

SD

NDMN

IA

MO

AR

LAMS AL

HI

FL

GA

TN

KY

IL

WI MI

IN OH

WV

SC

NC

VA

PA

NY

VTNH

ME

MARI

CTNJ

DEMD

Term limit or retiring Democrat (4): Arkansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island

Incumbent Democrat (10): Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Vermont, California, Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York

Term limit or retiring Republican (3): Arizona, Nebraska, Texas

Incumbent Republican (19): Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Wyoming

Page 8: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

8Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

A Case of Disappearing BondsFive years of low interest rates has accelerated refunding. For the remainder of 2014, the bulk of bonds that could have been refunded has already been refunded. For the majority of Build America Bonds issued in 2009 and 2010, refunding is not an attractive option because benefits to the issuer are limited.

Source: Bond Buyer. Data as of February 24, 2014.

For the remainder of 2014, the bulk of bonds that could be refunded has already been

refunded. In the case of the majority of Build America Bonds issued in 2009 and 2010 (that

were designed to reduce borrowing costs for state and local governments), refunding is not

an attractive option because benefits to the issuer are limited. Thus, even though no Build

America Bonds have been sold since 2010, the program is still influencing the municipal

bond market. As a result of fewer typical refunding candidates, we do not expect refunding

volume to represent a significant portion of annual issuance this year.

Investment Implications

Credit Analysis is Still Most Important

Low historical default rates for municipal bonds present a compelling case compared to corporate default rates for bonds with similar credit ratings. However, the problems

of Detroit, Puerto Rico and Illinois are a poignant reminder of the idiosyncrasies of the

municipal market. One of the core principles of the municipal market – the full faith and

credit pledge – is being debated as Detroit’s bankruptcy case moves through the courts,

so while the macroeconomic tailwinds for municipals are improving, the importance of

performing credit analysis remains just as vital as ever.

Positive Fundamentals Should Remain Positive

State revenues have increased for 15 consecutive quarters, and we believe they will continue

to improve next quarter supported by strong tax receipts. The improving economic

landscape, however, does not mean more bond issuance. We expect modest refunding

volume as many of the typical refunding candidates have already taken advantage of five

years of low interest rates. In addition as we discussed in this report, we expect new issuance

to remain low. The positive fundamental outlook combined with an imbalance between supply and demand should produce a solid year of performance for municipal bonds.

Nom

inal

Issu

ance

($Bn

)

$200

$100

$400

$300

$0

$600

$500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Est.

New Money Issuance Refunding Issuance BAB Average Since 2000

Page 9: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

9Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

“Riding the Curve” Enhances Relative Value Opportunities

Typically, individual municipal bond investors prefer debt with maturities of less than

10 years while opportunistic investors tend to focus on bonds maturing in more than

25 years. This barbell of investor demand often leaves debt in the middle of the range

(maturing in the 10- to 15-year horizon) undervalued – in particular for bonds rated in

the A category. The relative value of these bonds can be gauged by looking at the ratio of

municipal yields to U.S. Treasury yields, which currently exceeds historical averages.

Like any other fixed-income investment, as time passes, the maturity date of a municipal

bond gets closer: a 10-year bond at purchase in effect becomes a seven-year bond after

three years and then a six-year bond after four years, and so on. As the investor “rides

the curve” through time, that bond’s relative value should increase compared to a U.S.

Treasury bond with the same maturity.

Revenue

Sector View Sector View

Transportation HealthcareState NEUTRAL Private NEUTRALLocal NEUTRAL Public POSITIVEToll-way POSITIVE Tobacco NEGATIVEAirport POSITIVE Utility (includes Water, Sewer, Electric) POSITIVE

Higher Education HousingPrivatete NEUTRAL Single POSITIVEPublic POSITIVE Multi NEUTRAL

Military POSITIVE

Tax Supported

Sector View

State POSITIVEAppropriation, Lease & Pension NEUTRAL

Local POSITIVEAppropriation, Lease & Pension NEGATIVE

Dedicated Tax POSITIVE

Municipal Market Heat Map

Source: Guggenheim Investments. Data as of March 12, 2014.

Page 10: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

10Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

Important Notices and Disclosures

INDEX DEFINITIONS Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a broad market performance benchmark for the tax exempt bond market. The bonds included in this index must have a minimum credit rating of at least Baa. The referenced index is unmanaged and not available for direct investments. Index performance does not reflect transaction costs, fees, or expenses.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS Fixed income investments are subject to credit, liquidity, interest rate and, depending on the instrument, counter party risk. These

risks may be increased to the extent fixed income investments are concentrated in any one issuer, industry, region or country. The market value of fixed income investments generally will fluctuate with, among other things, the financial condition of the obligors on the underlying debt obligations or, with respect to synthetic securities, of the obligors on or issuers of the reference obligations, general economic conditions, the condition of certain financial markets, political events, developments or trends in any particular industry and changes in prevailing interest rates.

The municipal bond market may be impacted by unfavorable legislative or political developments and adverse changes in the financial conditions of state and municipal issuers or the federal government in case it provides financial support to the municipality. Income from the municipal bonds held could be declared taxable because of changes in tax laws. Certain sectors of the municipal bond market have special risks that can affect them more significantly than the market as a whole. Because many municipal instruments are issued to finance similar projects, conditions in these industries can significantly affect an investment.

Municipalities currently experience budget shortfalls, which could cause them to default on their debts. •A bonds market value will change in response to interest rate changes and market conditions, among other factors. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy or, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice, a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product or as an offer of solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. This article should not be considered research nor is the article intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.

The article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC its subsidiaries or its affiliates.

The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The value of any financial instruments or markets mentioned in the article can fall as well as rise. Securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and are neither a recommendation nor an endorsement.

Individuals and institutions outside of the United States are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions and should consult with their advisors as appropriate.

1Guggenheim Partners’ assets under management figure is updated as of 3.31.2014 and includes consulting services for clients whose assets are valued at approximately $39 billion.2Guggenheim Investments total asset figure is as of 3.31.2014 and includes $12.9bn of leverage for assets under management and $0.4bn of leverage for serviced assets. Total assets include assets from Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Investment

Management, LLC, Guggenheim Funds and its affiliated entities, and some business units including Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, Guggenheim Aviation, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Transparent Value Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management. Values from some funds are based upon prior periods.

Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC ( GP ): GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Aviation, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners India Management, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, Security Investors, LLC and Transparent Value Advisors, LLC. Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC (GPIM) is a registered investment adviser and serves as the adviser to the strategies discussed herein. This material is intended to inform you of services available through Guggenheim Investments’ affiliate businesses.

No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. ©2014, Guggenheim Partners, LLC.

Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC and Guggenheim Distributors, LLC are affiliates of Guggenheim Partners, LLC and Guggenheim Investments. For information, call 800.345.7999 or 800.820.0888.

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Page 11: Municipal Market Outlook: Relative Value and Tight Supply

11Guggenheim Investments Municipal Market Outlook | May 2014

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