Multiple Indicator Cluster SurveysMICS3Regional Training Workshop

Child Mortality

Purpose

• To measure infant and under-5 mortality rates

• To determine if any live births within the last 2 years – whether the next two modules will be asked.

Goal 1 - WSC

• Between 1990 and the year 2000, reduction of infant and under-five child mortality rate by one third or to 50 and 70 per 1000 live births respectively, whichever is less

Goal 4 - MDG

• Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, under-five mortality

• Indicator 13 – Under-5 Mortality Rate• Indicator 14 – Infant Mortality Rate

Information Collected in the Module

• Date of/years since first birth (CM2A, CM2B)

• Numbers of children ever born, children alive, children dead (CM3 to CM10)

• Date of last live birth (CM11)• Wantedness status of last birth (CM13)

Estimation of Infant and Under-5 Mortality Rates

• Indirect estimation method used• Devised by William Brass in the late 1950s,

commonly used in surveys and censuses around the world

• Indirect estimation method, but gives reliable results usually consistent with direct estimation

• Direct estimation in surveys: use of birth or maternity histories

Estimation of Infant and Under-5 Mortality Rates

• Method will give biased estimates if HIV/AIDS prevalence is more than 5 percent

• Results not as detailed as those from birth histories (neonatal rates etc)

• Make sure that the assumptions used are applicable to the country (eg choice of mortality model)

Estimation of Infant and Under-5 Mortality Rates

• Variants: By age of women, by time since first marriage, by time since first birth

• The idea is to calculate average numbers of children ever born and children deceased, and calculate proportion deceased

• Using proportion deceased and models, estimate infant and under-5 mortality rates

Estimation of Infant and Under-5 Mortality Rates

• Estimated rates will refer to 1-4 years before the survey on the average, depending on the variant of the method used

Month: JanuaryYear: 2005Tabulation: By Age of Mother

Age Average Number of Group Children Children Proportion of Ever Surviving Dead

Woman Born

15 - 20 0.154 0.138 0.103896 20 - 25 1.129 0.999 0.115146 25 - 30 2.562 2.240 0.125683 30 - 35 4.008 3.477 0.132485 35 - 40 5.237 4.432 0.153714 40 - 45 5.956 4.946 0.169577 45 - 50 6.243 5.013 0.197021

Input Data

Age Corresponding Mortality Indices Group United Nations Models Coale-Demeny Model of Reference (Palloni-Heligman Equations) Reference (Trussell Equations) Woman Date Latin Am. Chilean So. Asian Far East General Date West North East SouthInfant mortality rate 15 - 20 Dec 2003 0.106 0.117 0.106 0.106 0.106 Jan 2004 0.115 0.113 0.116 0.110 20 - 25 Oct 2002 0.097 0.113 0.099 0.100 0.100 Nov 2002 0.102 0.093 0.107 0.099 25 - 30 Apr 2001 0.092 0.110 0.094 0.095 0.095 Jan 2001 0.097 0.086 0.105 0.097 30 - 35 Mar 1999 0.087 0.108 0.091 0.091 0.090 Oct 1998 0.094 0.082 0.104 0.095 35 - 40 Sep 1996 0.093 0.117 0.097 0.095 0.096 Apr 1996 0.101 0.087 0.113 0.103 40 - 45 Dec 1993 0.093 0.121 0.101 0.095 0.097 Aug 1993 0.103 0.087 0.117 0.106 45 - 50 Jul 1990 0.101 0.130 0.110 0.098 0.103 Aug 1990 0.109 0.091 0.126 0.112

Under 5 Mortality Rate 15 - 20 2003.96 0.170 0.146 0.162 0.159 0.161 2004.040 0.169 0.188 0.152 0.166 20 - 25 2002.79 0.153 0.140 0.150 0.148 0.149 2002.880 0.147 0.152 0.140 0.145 25 - 30 2001.29 0.142 0.137 0.141 0.140 0.140 2001.040 0.139 0.138 0.136 0.139 30 - 35 1999.21 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.132 0.132 1998.790 0.135 0.132 0.134 0.136 35 - 40 1996.71 0.143 0.146 0.146 0.139 0.142 1996.290 0.145 0.140 0.148 0.151 40 - 45 1993.96 0.144 0.152 0.154 0.139 0.143 1993.620 0.149 0.142 0.154 0.157 45 - 50 1990.54 0.159 0.164 0.171 0.144 0.155 1990.620 0.159 0.149 0.167 0.170

• Documents on method to be posted at childinfo.org

• Plan to provide more detailed documentation

• QFive program to be provided to countries to calculate the rates