Multiple Dimensions of Resilience in Rural Areas & Small Islands:

Lessons from Global Experience & World Bank Perspectives

Ede Ijjasz‐VasquezSector Director

Sustainable Development DepartmentLatin America and the Caribbean Region

The World Bank

Geophysical events(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)Meteorological events (storm) 

Hydrological events(flood, mass movement)

Selection of significant loss events (see table)

Natural catastrophes

Earthquake, tsunami Japan, 11 March

EarthquakeNew Zealand, 22 Feb.

Cyclone Yasi Australia, 2–7 Feb.

Landslides, flash floodsBrazil, 12/16 Jan.

Floods, flash floods Australia, Dec. 2010–Jan. 2011

Severe storms, tornadoesUSA, 22–28 April

Severe storms, tornadoesUSA, 20–27 May

WildfiresUSA, April/Sept.

EarthquakeNew Zealand, 13 June

FloodsUSA, April–May

Climatological events(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Number of events: 820Number of events: 820

DroughtUSA, Oct. 2010–ongoing

Hurricane IreneUSA, Caribbean22 Aug.–2 Sept.

WildfiresCanada, 14–22 May

DroughtSomaliaOct. 2010–Sept. 2011

FloodsPakistanAug.–Sept.

FloodsThailandAug.–Nov.

Earthquake Turkey23 Oct.

Flash floods, floodsItaly, France, Spain4–9 Nov.

Floods, landslidesGuatemala, El Salvador11–19 Oct.

Tropical Storm WashiPhilippines, 16–18 Dec.

Winter Storm JoachimFrance, Switzerland, Germany, 15–17 Dec.

© 2011 Munich Re

Natural Catastrophes: 2011

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide

1980 ‐ 2011

Meteorological events(Storm)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)

© 2011 Munich Re

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide

The five costliest natural catastrophes for the insurance industry

Date Region Event Fatalities

Overall losses US$ m

Insured lossesUS$ m

11.3.2011 JapanEarthquake, tsunami

15,840 210,00035,000‐40,000

22.2.2011 New Zealand Earthquake 181 16,000 13,000

1.8‐15.11.2011 Thailand Floods, landslides 813 40,000 10,000

22‐28.4.2011 USASevere storms/ tornadoes

350 15,000 7,300

22.8‐2.9.2011

USA, Caribbean

Hurricane Irene 55 15,000 7,000

© 2011 Munich Re

Jamaica Economic Losses

Jamaica spends US$15 – 2.0m a year for hurricane damages alone

We estimate that over the past 10 years the Government and Donors have spent a yearly average of US$1.5 to 2 Million in post disaster  support, in Response to  agriculture average yearly direct damages of US$100 million.

Extreme Events: Island Nations

Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane wind velocitySoil moisture – water excess and deficitsExtremes in 1‐2 day and hourly precipitationExtremes in days with/without precipitationExtremes in Maximum and Minimum Temperature

Climatic Hazards & Risk

Managing Risks: Floods

rapid growthof informal settlements

weak building construction

settlements built near rivers and blocked drainage areas 

reduce poverty

strengthen buildings

improve drainage and sewage

early warning systems

Risk Management & Adaptation

Risk Factors

Managing Risks: Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise in Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Risk Factors

shore erosion

saltwater intrusion

coastal populations

tourism economies

earlywarning systems

Maintenance/  improvement  of drainage

Regional risk pooling

relocation 

Risk Management/Adaptation

Managing Risks: Food Security

Drought in the Context of Food Security

More variable rain

population growth

Ecosystem degradation

poor health and education systems

improved water management

sustainable farming practice

drought‐resistant crops

early warning systems

Risk Factors Risk Management/Adaptation

Understanding RiskWB/GFDRR financed over 40 Regional, National and city level Risk Assessment to help countries Understand their Risk

PCRAFIMost extensive

study of Disaster and Climate risk in the Pacific to support 

governmentdecision making

Message: Understanding Risk is a critical first step in 

reducing future damage and losses.

Message: Understanding Risk is a critical first step in 

reducing future damage and losses.

Risk Models provide a representation of a complex physical phenomena  

Hazard VulnerabilityExposure Loss

$ or %

Hazard        x Exposure/Vulnerability        =           Risk

Multi‐hazard Models

EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO

TSUNAMI

GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

- GROUND SHAKING- HURRICANE RAINFALL

- OTHER RAINFALL

STRONG WINDS

STORM SURGE

HURRICANE RAINFALL

FLOODS

- HURRICANE RAINFALL- OTHER RAINFALL

ASH FALLS

BALLISTIC EJECTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

LAVA FLOWS

Powerful reliable models need extensive amount of DATA  

Developing Tools to support Climate Resilient Decision Making

Risk-in-a-Box

Weather and Climate Informationand Decision‐Support SystemsWCDIS 

Message: WB is building tools to enable informed decision‐making about 

complex dynamic systems in a changing climate. 

Message: WB is building tools to enable informed decision‐making about 

complex dynamic systems in a changing climate. 

Developing Tools to support Climate Resilient Decision Making and Sharing the Results

Climate Change Data Portal

Message: Enabling access to critical 

climate and disaster data is central to informing decision‐

making 

Message: Enabling access to critical 

climate and disaster data is central to informing decision‐

making 

Reducing Risk & Acceptable Risk

Resilience Process

Learning, Development & Partnership

Figure from IPCC SREX 2012

Caribbean Agricultural Vulnerability

Catastrophe coverage for small vulnerable farmers is ex‐post, andwith slow responseCommodity Boards and/or individual farmers have no instrumentsfor transferring risks

High Vulnerability to Natural Hazards

Caribbean Agricultural Risk Factors

Risk + uncertainty widespread in agrifood system:Major structural and demographic changesRisky business = ‘old risks’ + ‘new risks’

o ‘Old Risks’: weather, price variability, pests, logisticalbottlenecks, food safety hazards, policy shifts

o ‘New Risks’: climate change, new disease transmission,biosafety, bioterrorism, environmental imprint & socialconcerns

Agriculture Risk Management

Need to design a comprehensive Regional or Country RiskManagement Strategy for Agriculture.This RMS may include Mitigation‐ Transfer – Copingmechanisms and tools.Risk Layering and Risk Financing are importantEx Ante is better than Ex‐PostDefine clear role of public sectorSupply Chains Versus Farmer level risksAgricultural Insurance will play an important role, but it is onlypart of the Strategy

Messages and Approach

Public Sector & Agricultural Risk

Assuming Catastrophic layers in an ex‐ante approachServices and investments for risk mitigation.

Agriculture Research & Extension Sanitary & Phytosanitary ServicesPest Controls, Drainage, etc

Investments for supporting private sector initiativesWeather data reliability and access Accessto reliable agronomic informationAccess to financial agro information Training

Improving delivery channels to support small farmers after adversecatastrophic events.

Transparency EfficiencyAccountability

Adaptation to climate change

Identifying the Role of the Public Sector

Agricultural Risk Management

Risk Management Framework for Agriculture

1 Identify Objectives/ targetSocial vs commercial objectiveTarget groups:- Traditional farming sector- Emerging farming sector- Commercial farming sector- Subsistence farming sector

2 Agricultural Risk Assessment

Risk identificationRisk quantificationVulnerability AssessmentsRisk Prioritization

4 ResourcesData managementRegulatory/supervisory frameworkInformation and educationTechnical expertiseProgram administration and monitoring

3 Risk Management Strategy PreventionTransfer Coping

Regional vs. Country Management

Some measures are more attractive to regional approach and betterto do it regionally (i.e. Sanitary and phytosanitary issues, hurricanes,etc.).Other risks are much more country specific (logistic disruptions, pricerisks, exchange rate, flash flooding, droughts, etc.)Transferring agricultural weather risks at regional level requires tomeet key challenges:

Quantifying “ regional” agriculture exposureDefining trigger payoutsInstitutional delivery channels

Agricultural Risk Transfer

Impact of Disasters in Jamaica

The number of persons affected by disasters has been increasing (2001‐2010)

(Source: PIOJ)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000H

urric

aner

Gilb

ert

May

/Jun

eR

ains

Hur

rican

e Iv

an

Hur

rican

eW

ilma

Trop

ical

Sto

rmG

usta

v

Economic Impact of Disasters

The cost of disasters is increasing (trend 2001‐2010)

Cost of D

isasters (billions of d

ollars)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Hurricane Miche

lle

May/Jun

e Floo

d Ra

ins

Hurricane Ch

arley

Hurricane Ivan

Hurricanes Den

nis &

 Emily

Hurricane Wilm

a

Hurricane De

an

Trop

ical Storm

 Gustav

Trop

ical Storm

 Nicole

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

OCCURRENCE OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN JAMAICASelected hydro‐meteorological disasters (Source: PIOJ)

EVENT Year Category Cost ($JB) Impact (% GDP)

Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 2.52 0.8

May/June Flood Rains 2002 ‐ 2.47 0.7

Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.44 0.02

Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 36.9  8.0 

Hurricanes Dennis & Emily 2005 4 5. 98 1.2

Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 3.6  0.7

Hurricane Dean 2007 4 23.8  3.4

Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 15.5 2.0

Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 20.6 1.9

Total 111.81

Impacted Sectors

Social Sector – housing, education, healthEconomic Sectors – agriculture, mining,tourism, manufacturingInfrastructure – energy, water supply, roads &bridges, telecommunications, portsEnvironmentEmergency Operations

Cost of Disasters by Sectors

Social Sector

Infrastructure

Eonomic Sectors

Environment

Cost to the Infrastructure Sector ($m)

Infrastructure H. Michelle 2001

May/June Rains 2002

H Ivan 2004

H. Dennis/Emily 2005

H Wilma 2005

H  Dean 2007

TC Gustav 2008

TC Niole2010 TOTAL

Water & Sewerage 96 78.7 687.7 400 47.4 202 725 270 2506.8

Telecom 6.9 4.46 1535.3 42 30 197.68 136.9 1953.24

Transport 1577.5 1491.8 3225.9 4271.89 3199 2047.3 11530 17041.8 44385.19

Energy & Electricity 6.4 1.2 1397.9 70 1073.25 108 92.4 2749.15

Ports 120.1 11.56 1.8 133.46

TOTAL 51727.84

(Source: PIOJ)

Total costs  based on analysis of  9 events was estimated at $ 111.37 b

Of  this, the infrastructure sector accounted for $51.7b or 46 % of the overall costs.   At $44.4b, the transport sub‐sector (roads and bridges)  bore the brunt  (86%) of  these costs. 

Jamaica Risk Factors

Geology & geographyProximity to the coastUnplanned SettlementsInadequate planning & environmental managementIncreased development in marginal (high risk) areasInadequate efforts to mitigate the effects of hazardsAnticipated increase in the occurrences of extremeevents due to climate change

Jamaica is highly vulnerable to multiple natural disaster risks

Vulnerability Reduction

Greater emphasis needs to be placed on hazard riskmanagement activities and programmes for reducingexisting and future vulnerability to damage and loss.

Urgent priorities included in the natural hazardmitigation policy (approved by Cabinet, 2006):hazard data collection and mapping,vulnerability assessment,risk assessment,watershed management andrisk transfer measures such as insurance.