Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally, Olivier

Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa,

Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project

Alan Hally, Olivier Caumont, Olivier Nuissier, Véronique Ducrocq (CNRS – Météo-France), Évelyne Richard, Juan Escobar (CNRS – Laboratoire d’Aérologie), Antonio Parodi, Nicola Rebora, Elisabetta Fiori,

Fabio Delogu, Fabio Pintus (CIMA), Andrea Clematis, Daniele D'Agostino, Antonella Galizia, Alfonso Quarati, Emanuele Danovaro (CNR-IMATI), Luis Garrote (UPM), Maria Carmen Llasat (Univ. Barcelona), Quillon Harpham (HR Wallingford), Albrecht Weerts, H.R.A. Jagers (Deltares), Arnold Tafferner, Caroline

Forster (DLR), Vladimir Dimitrijević, Ljiljana Dekić, Marija Ivković, Ana Mihalović (RHMSS), Richard Hooper (CUAHSI)

What is DRIHM?

14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

An FP7-funded project (2011-2015) gathering computer-science experts and hydrometerological researchers from 10 European and US institutions.

What is DRIHM?


What is the project’s main objective?

Use cutting-edge information and communication technology to boost hydrometeorological research, with a focus on flash floods and ensemble prediction.


What is DRIHM?


What is the project’s main objective?

Use cutting-edge information and communication technology to boost hydrometeorological research, with a focus on flash floods and ensemble prediction.

What are the project’s technical goals?

Develop a prototype e-Science environment that allows various users (researchers, citizen scientists) to provide and access hydrometeorological data and models and run complex hydrometeorological chains (from atmospheric simulations to hydraulic models through rainfall-discharge hydrological models) via a user-friendly interface.


Hydro-meteorological Chains


The DRIHM Distributed Infrastructure


Enabling new research paradigms

WRF Meso-NH AROME RainFARM OBS

DRiFt

Hydrometeorological connections available initially

No interoperability or standard interfacing

Streamflow OBSRIBS

Direct Hard-wired interface

Gridded Data

Point Series Data


Enabling new research paradigms


DRiFt RIBS Streamflow OBS

Hydrometeorological connections available initially

No interoperability or standard interfacing

DRIHM


DRiFt RIBS Streamflow OBS

NetCDF-CF WaterML 2

WaterML 2

Hydrometeorological connections created through DRIHM Meteorological-Model-Bridge (MMB)

Increased interoperability and standard interfacing

Direct Hard-wired interface

Gridded Data

Point Series Data


A Mediterranean severe flash flood event

A third of the average annual rainfall (450 mm) fell in 6 hours

Caused by the Bisagno creek bursting its banks

Six people were killed

Genoa, Italy, 4th November 2011


4th November 2011 - Meteorological Details


4th November 2011 - Meteorological Details


Available Data and Numerical Setup6 different simulated and observed rainfall sources (OBS, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, AROME, Meso-NH, RainFARM)

These rainfall sources used to drive 3 different hydrological models (HBV, DRiFt, RIBS)


Available Data and Numerical Setup

The characteristics of the different meteorological and hydrological ensembles performed for the case of the 4 November 2011

All simulations initialised at 00 UTC, 4 Nov. 2011, except Arome ensemble (18 UTC, 3 Nov. 2011).

6 different simulated and observed rainfall sources (OBS, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, AROME, Meso-NH, RainFARM)

These rainfall sources used to drive 3 different hydrological models (HBV, DRiFt, RIBS)


Meteorological Simulations – 24h Precipitation


Meteorological Simulations – EnsemblesAROME Ensemble – 8 members, perturbed IC and BC


Meteorological Simulations – EnsemblesAROME Ensemble – 8 members, perturbed IC and BC

Meso-NH Ensemble – 10 members, perturbed physical parameterisations


Hydrological Simulations

1 - RIBS (deterministic)

2 - RIBS (probabilistic)

3 - DRiFt (deterministic)

4 - HBV (deterministic)

Peak observed discharge (800 m3/s)

Warning threshold (400 m3/s)

All hydrological models forced with MNH-MWF ensemble



RIBS - Deterministic1 – OBS

2 – AROME

3 – WRF-ARW

4 – MNH-ARP

5 – MNH-MWF

6 – WRF-NMM

7 - RainFARM



RIBS - Deterministic RIBS - Probabilistic1 – OBS

2 – AROME

3 – WRF-ARW

4 – MNH-ARP

5 – MNH-MWF

6 – WRF-NMM

7 - RainFARM



RIBS - Deterministic RIBS - Probabilistic

DRiFt - Deterministic

1 – OBS

2 – AROME

3 – WRF-ARW

4 – MNH-ARP

5 – MNH-MWF

6 – WRF-NMM

7 - RainFARM

1 – OBS

2 – AROME

3 – WRF-ARW

4 – MNH-ARP

5 – MNH-MWF

6 – WRF-NMM

7 - RainFARM



RIBS - Deterministic RIBS - Probabilistic

DRiFt - Deterministic HBV - Deterministic

1 – OBS

2 – AROME

3 – WRF-ARW

4 – MNH-ARP

5 – MNH-MWF

6 – WRF-NMM

7 - RainFARM

1 – OBS

2 – AROME

3 – WRF-ARW

4 – MNH-ARP

5 – MNH-MWF

6 – WRF-NMM

7 - RainFARM


Project Conclusions and Perspectives

Successful exploitation of the DRIHM infrastructure for hydrometeorological research:

Transparent interfacing of 6 simulated or observed rainfall sources with 3 hydrological models using Meteorological-Model-Bridge (MMB)

Production of more than 1500 different scenarios, an in depth study of the physics and predictability of a chosen event, the design of efficient hydrometeorological ensembles, the propagation of uncertainties throughout a hydrometeorological forecasting chain, etc.

Sensitivity to choice of hydrological model, but increased sensitivity to choice of simulated rainfall source

Future work:

Integration of additional components (models and services) in the DRIHM e-Infrastructure

Further case studies (Muga flash-flood in Spain Nov. 2011, Flash-floods Serbia May 2014)

Results and conclusions to be published in NHESS


http://www.drihm.eu/


Numerical Model Domains

WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH, AROME

Models have different: domains, resolutions and configurations


Meteorological Simulations – 10m wind


Documents

Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally, Olivier