Multi-Agent Complex Systems - wide range of ideas, techniques and applications in

- Health (disease spread), - Biology (immune system)- Culture (economic value of cultural environment), - -- Governance

…Desert Reclaim, Economic Sustainability, Financial Stability Real Estate Policy, Immigration effects, Social Policy…

- cannot be even enumerated in a short talk.

This talk limited to: specific examples of theoretical scientific concepts (even rigorous theorems)leading to concrete applications of interest to policy makers (most of the present audience)

Theoretical abstract:

- the emergence of resilient collective objects with adaptive behavior that have fractal / scaling / singular geometry and lead to intermittent (Levy) fluctuations of the global system

Multi-Agent Logistic systems display - the spontaneous emergence of spatio-temporal localized phases that break spontaneously the translational space time symmetry and

This is proven both numerically and theoretically

Application abstract:

The Multi-Agent Complex Systems approach identifies-singular local elements of growth (even at early stages where, as whole, the system seems in regress).

- spatio-temporal patterns of resources and- socio-economic / human interactive causal mechanisms leading to growth (e.g. education / cultural level / tradition).

In the concrete case of post-liberalization Poland.- identifies emergence of resilient, sustainable, developing patterns likely to support sustainable global growth

- prediction of (space-time) singular fluctuation patterns that may lead to widening social inequality and economic instability (but also to novelty emergence).

The classical paradigms fail in predicting emergence of novelty / development.

- Propose extension of study to other regions (Piemonte…)

Solution:

< 0

“almost all the social phenomena…

obey the logistic growth” Elliot W Montroll

I would urge… logistic equation early in the education

… in the everyday world of politics and economics Lord Robert May

Size

- Nonlinear Terms (Competion/Saturation)

Growth ~ Size

Logistic Equation (Mathus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster

Multi-Agent Complex Systems Paradigm: In reality, in Growth ~ Size, is the result of many spatio-temporal distributed discrete individual contributions

rather then totally uniform and static

Instead: emergence of singular spatio-temporal localized collective islands with adaptive self-serving behavior

=> resilience and sustainability

even for <> << 0!

Multi-Agent Complex Systems (MACS) Implications: one can prove rigorously that the DE prediction (uniform spatial and temporal decay):

Logistic Differential Equation < 0

Is ALWAYS wrong !

Logistic MACS

prediction

ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 0

Andrzej Nowak lab

Poland Post-Liberalization Social-Economic-Political Development: MACS wins over DE

Seemingly similar regions before liberalization

ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 1

MACS

DE

1989 1990 1991 1992

Nowak

Emerges islandof growth

Large region of decay

First year: Global Decay;

- MACS predicts Future Growth- DE predicts continuous decay

(based on the same Logistsic parameters !)

ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 2

1989 1990 1991 1992

Yr2:Globally, the situation seems getting worse and worse

Most regions are devastated

But MACS sees already nuclei of growth

ECONOMIC Clustering Development after economic liberalization of Poland: year 3

1989 1990 1991 1992

MACS

DEMACS wins over DE

(for the same Logistic parameters)

Development spreads from the nuclei to the rest of the country

What were the A’s ?

EDUCATION (‘88)(partial answer)

What were the A’s ?

Nowak

Economic Growth is in turn “A’s” for Political Transformation

Voting for Reformist Parties

Nowak

fractal space-time distributionPrediction of campaign success (15/17) Goldenberg

Desertification/ Reclaim patterns (patchy organic matter distribution)

Mediterranean; uniform 500mm

Semi-arid; patchy

Desert;uniform200mm

Lavee+Sarah

Piemonte

Belarus

Piemonte Romania

Infinite Competition Range =Globalization (efficient but unstable fluctuations)

Intermediate Range

Zero Range=Local Consumption Economy (inefficient but very stable (if population is stable))

Distributionof individual wealth ~

(by Prediction)

Distribution of market fluctuations

Social equity is good for the financial stability!

Levy

Other Crucial real Fact: Scaling; Power laws

Dell

Buffet

20ALLEN

GATES

WALMART

No one however, has yet exhibited a stable social order, ancient or modern, which has not followed the Pareto pattern… Davis; Cowles Commission for Research in Economics

Pareto’s curve … great generalizations

of human knowledge. Snyder 1939

real world is controlled by the ‘tails’ of distributions… by the exceptional, not the mean;by the catastrophe, not the steadyby the very rich, not the ‘middle class’. We need to free ourselves from ‘average’ thinking

Phil W Anderson

Logistic systems=> Pareto Laws

Theorem : Multi-Agent Complex

The 100 year old Pareto puzzle is solved by combining

the 100 year old logistic Lotka-Volterra equation with the 100 year old Boltzmann Statistical Mechanics

Experimental ConfirmationNr of Species vs individuals size Nr of Species vs number of specimensNr of Species vs their life time Nr of Languages vs number of speakersNr of countries vs population / size Nr of towns vs. populationNr of product types vs. number of units soldNr of treatments vs number of patients treatedNr of patients vs cost of treatmentNr of moon craters vs their size Nr of earthquakes vs their strenthNr of meteorites vs their size Nr of voids in universe vs their sizeNr of galaxies vs their size Nr of rives vs the size of their basin

Conclusions• The organic connection between a few

classical complexity features

Pareto-Zipf scaling laws / Levy-stable fat-tail fluctuations, Fractal-Intermittent singular spatio-temporal Growth patterns, Logistic Malthus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster system Percolation, phase transitions, Emergence of adaptive objects

is explained within a comprehensive coherent framework.

• Its applications in monitoring and inducing stable growth and sustainable development is demonstrated.