EC Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS)

Mike Moran

Air Quality Research DivisionEnvironment Canada, Toronto, OntarioMtg on AQ Data Assimilation and Fusion R&D, 16-17 Jan. 2012, Downsview, ON

Talk OutlineShort overview of current EC RAQDPSWhat are the AQ outputs?How are they generated?How good are they?Future plans

AQHI: Canadas National Air Quality Health Index

Follows example of Canadian national UV indexYear-round, health-based, additive, no-threshold, hourly AQ indexDeveloped from daily time-series analysis of air pollutant concentrations and mortality data (Stieb et al., 2008)Weighted sum of NO2, O3, & PM2.5 concentrations0 to 10+ range

Canadian AQ Forecasting SystemPrimary messaging tool is the AQHIMain target is urban areas > 100,000 populationCurrent RAQDPS is GEM-MACH15, a coupled AQ / Wx forecast model that provides twice-daily 48-hour forecasts of hourly AQHI component (NO2, O3, PM2.5) fields, other AQ fields, and meteorological fieldsUMOS-AQ/MIST statistical post-processing package combines GEM-MACH15 predicted AQ and met fields with previous days NO2, O3, and PM2.5 measurements to forecast hourly AQHI component values at AQ station locations (data fusion step: large reduction in bias)

GEM-MACH and GEM-MACH15GEM-MACH is a multi-scale, first-principles, chemical weather forecast model composed of dynamics, physics, and in-line chemistry modulesGEM-MACH15 is a particular configuration of GEM-MACH chosen to meet ECs operational AQ forecast needs; its key characteristics include:limited-area-model (LAM) grid configuration for North America15-km horizontal grid spacing, 58 vertical levels to 0.1 hPa2-bin sectional representation of PM size distribution (i.e., 0-2.5 and 2.5-10 m) with 9 chemical components (SO4, NO3, NH4, EC, POA, SOA, CM, S-S, H2O)forecast species include O3, NO2, and PM2.5 needed for AQHI plus other gas- and particle-phase concentration and flux fields

GEM-LAM15 and GEM-MACH15 Grids

GEM-LAM15 is ECs limited-area regional weather forecast modelGEM-MACH15s grid points are co-located with GEM-LAM15 grid points GEM-LAM15 supplies meteorological initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions to GEM-MACH15GEM-LAM15 core grid (blue); GEM-MACH15 grid (red)

Key GEM-MACH15 Inputs: Emissions (1)AQ forecasting is a mixed IV/BV problemGEM-MACH15 is a source-oriented prognostic deterministic Eulerian modelPollutant and precursor emissions from all sources are a key input to GEM-MACH, including natural sources such as biogenic emissions, sea salt, wildfires, wind-blown dust, and lightning NOx (only biogenic emissions and sea salt are included now)

Key GEM-MACH15 Inputs: Emissions (2)Accuracy of input emissions fields is limited by (a) accuracy of emissions inventories and (b) accuracy of emissions processing (spatial, temporal, and size disaggregation, chemical speciation)Only emissions from large U.S. power plants are directly measured (but are not known in future); all other emissions are estimated

Estimated 2011 Annual NO Emissions on GEM-MACH15 Domain

Estimated 2011 Annual NH3 Emissions on GEM-MACH15 Domain

Sample Spatial Surrogates Saskatchewan Primary Highways (red) and Secondary Highways (blue)

Temporal Surrogate LDGV Diurnal Profiles for Weekdays vs. Weekends (FEVER data)

Chart2

747.8889161580.625

420.333344956.5

368.888885598.625

589.555542455.75

1520.28577493.25

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6029.52563.25

52043672.92871

4944.150885023.75

4910.015626191

4714.334476941.00391

4611.191897539.875

5060.559086990.625

5616.275887283.28564

6593.757180.72949

7267.652836836.14307

7109.457036496.57129

56895998.28564

4185.39995364.42871

3432.60014797.71436

2756.199954214.71436

1781.300053275.85718

1249.599982266.57153

Weekday_Car

Weekend_Car

Local Time

Cars/hour

WKD_AVE

WKD_CarWKD_MEDWKD_HEAWKD_MED+HEAWND_CarWND_MEDWND_HEAWND_MED+HEAWKD_CarWKD_MEDWKD_HEAWKD_MED+HEAWND_CarWND_MEDWND_HEAWND_MED+HEAWKD_MEDWKD_HEAWKD_MED+HEAWND_MEDWND_HEAWND_MED+HEAModified_WND_MED

0747.88891627108.555557135.5555571580.6252577.625102.62500.79130430240.82939162242.18304085471.64747603511.59132092212.5036478553.93785251323.45562563883218165250394346250

1420.33334435.222221493.3333359128.5555573956.524.3756791.37510.4447339391.08196353161.87692358641.56240145750.96297253432.44105665863.39885498733.0768116216108188156244340308244

2368.88888530.66666691.5555573122.2222233598.62516.7562.37579.12520.39030309920.94202503211.84117264541.48542920920.6026758321.67744406283.16423253482.664325248394184149168316266168

3589.55554240.555557399.5555573140.1111146455.7514.37553.2567.62530.6237795841.24579405432.00205180561.70284205720.4588340121.43959751662.70132877722.2770931427125200170144270228144

41520.2857766.2857132157.571426223.8571392493.2521.87561.37583.2541.60853924282.03617834123.16874483442.7206503390.49658777062.19069187313.11350335592.8032237209204317272219311280219

53717.83325109.666664205.166672314.833336915.12534.62560.3759553.93365563173.36876342154.12588023473.82633060260.9213175543.46755227923.0627741773.1988739158337413383347306320347

65993.6665198.333328229427.3333281691.2542.12570.75112.87566.3416023256.09244446994.60516595865.19360056091.70269450984.21864663563.58908940823.8007672973609461519422359380422

76029.5210.666672248458.6666722563.256470.125134.12576.37951598056.47130269924.98725396395.57441072082.58059524156.40933850883.55738367144.5163048837647499557641356452641

85204216.428574256.428558472.8571323672.9287167.849487382.8112259150.660713285.50609522556.64829800475.15675138055.74687464113.69778302996.79484893364.20094549485.073101322665516575679420507679

94944.15088233.744354316.714294550.4586485023.7569.25110.125179.37595.2311617137.18020774056.36909120246.69000556635.05774518466.93510455835.5865508286.0399790384718637669694559604694

104910.01562225304.555573529.555573619169.75106.375176.125105.19504488146.91159685346.12458059956.43595980186.23289384196.98517751545.3963164075.9305438781691612644699540593699

114714.33447234.581131319.837738554.4188696941.0039158.9406776119.167374178.1080516114.98800432687.20591203066.43190333336.73813615826.98797294895.90266804186.04526303645.9973178995721643674590605600590

124611.19189243.306625313.547058556.8536837539.87556.75114.25171124.87887426017.47394357236.30539841896.76772769847.59089653625.68328063085.7958086915.7579730484747631677568580576568

135060.55908231.341629305.248474536.5901036990.62550.7599.25150135.35432747677.10640033366.13851476596.52145404377.03792981965.08240514565.03487100735.0508535512711614652508503505508

145616.27588239.438248265.813568505.2518167283.2856448.857143490.1428604139.0000038145.94230396017.35511396215.34548294636.1405838097.33257086324.8928432914.57287329314.6804577521736535614489457468489

156593.75227.75236.625464.3757180.7294947.699249395.2556381142.9548874156.9765210216.99607192614.75850390815.64378695147.22932072664.77688492784.83224030784.8136280046700476564478483481478

167267.65283181.763885230.083328411.8472136836.1430742.285713292.2857132134.5714264167.68954430215.58346086954.6269515715.00538988256.88240252674.2347414064.68157845624.5313371128558463501423468453423

177109.45703135.746933201.884689337.6316226496.5712942.428569892.2857132134.714283177.52216514394.16990255554.05987990114.10340983616.54053290044.24904791084.68157845624.5361474313417406410425468454425

18568995.3000031186.699997282.00000015998.285643693.2857132129.2857132186.01924975752.92744534033.75451733913.42729027376.03887540423.60525291124.73230763514.3533546909293375343361473435361(19h-00h)/5h

194185.399971.5999985197.399994268.99999255364.4287130.428571782.8571396113.2857113194.42836479752.19942366373.96969315553.26929453055.40072923143.04729713074.20327465913.814596914822039732730542038130511

203432.600160.2000008177.600006237.80000684797.7143635.571430277.5714264113.1428566203.63186453151.84923616053.57151747552.89010514224.83017998543.56233339683.93513476853.8097866604185357289356394381294

212756.1999558.9000015163.5222.40000154214.7143639.428569867.4285736106.8571434212.91619895951.80930251133.28796783512.70294099914.24323488613.94861016823.42059617413.5981318814181329270395342360283

221781.3000540.7000008134.699997175.39999783275.8571825.57142836388.5714283221.88470555351.25023109982.70880279832.13172590873.29802455892.56087406453.19593827162.9824087544125271213256320298272

231249.5999841.2000008129.300003170.50000382266.5715333.857143462.285713296.1428566231.32213998531.2655902042.60020948592.07217377482.28190917973.3906545783.15970308873.2373565912127260207339316324261

94513.4398673255.39820644972.67638258228.074588999327.85889998.5429841971.25209082969.79507481001001001001001001001001000210002100001000010000100009764

WKD_MED831089412520433760964766571869172174771173670055841729322018518112512710002

WND_MED25024416814421934742264167969469959056850848947842342536130535639525633910000

WKD_HEA21818818420031741346149951663761264363161453547646340637539735732927126010002

WND_HEA39434031627031130635935642055954060558050345748346846847342039434232031610000

WKD_MED831089412520433760964766571869172174771173670055841729322018518112512710002

Proposed_WND_MED2502441681442193474226416796946995905685084894784234253613052942832722619764

WKD_HEA21818818420031741346149951663761264363161453547646340637539735732927126010002

WND_HEA39434031627031130635935642055954060558050345748346846847342039434232031610000

WKD_MED+HEA16515614917027238351955757566964467467765261456450141034332728927021320710000

WND_MED+HEA34630826622828032038045250760459360057650546848145345443538138136029832410000

WKD_AVE

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These four values are linearly interpolated between the 19h and 00h values to smoothen the data

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Cars/Hour

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Key GEM-MACH15 Inputs: Chemical Lateral Boundary ConditionsCurrently use static climatological seasonal vertical profiles for all species (limiting!)Only CO varies in spaceReasonably good approximation for reactive short-lived species, less so for medium- to long-lived species such as PM, O3, and COAdvantageous to locate lateral boundaries over clean regions such as oceans

2-Year Performance Evaluation Results for GEM-MACH15Considered 2-year period from 1 Aug. 2009 to 31 July 2011Looked at Year 1 (2009-10) vs. Year 2 (2010-11)Used archived near-real-time hourly O3, PM2.5, and NO2 Canadian data from National Air Pollutant Surveillance (NAPS) network stations and hourly O3 and PM2.5 U.S. data from AIRNowPerformed some limited screening for outliers

Minimum number of available Canadian and U.S. stations in 2009-2011 for O3, PM2.5, and NO2 in the Oct.Mar. and Apr.Sept. periods

Country/SpeciesO3PM2.5NO2Canada summer 184170134Canada winter 182171133U.S. summer1,128597N/AU.S. winter 626599N/A

Year 1 Annual Correlation (R) Values O3PM2.5 NO2

Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Maximum 1-h O3 Concentrations At Canadian & U.S. Stations Cda Year 1U.S. Year 2U.S. Year 1Cda Year 2

Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Maxm 1-h PM2.5 Concentrations At Canadian & U.S. Stations

Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Maximum 1-h NO2 Concentrations At Canadian StationsCda Year 1Cda Year 2

Regions for Model Evaluation

Monthly Variation Of Regional Mean NMB For Daily Maximum PM2.5 For 4 Regions For Full 2 Years

Future Plans (Short- / Medium- / Long-term)S Migration to IBM p7 computerS Reduced grid spacing (15 10? km)S Further improvements to emissions filesS/M Improved process representationsM Migration to GEMv4 (new staggered vertical discretization, updated chemistry bus, piloting at top of limited-area grid)M Improved initialization using objectively- analyzed model-measurement fieldsM/L Longer forecasts (48 72+ h)

SummaryCurrent EC RAQDPS produces twice-daily 48-hour forecasts of hourly AQ concentration fields on North American domain with 15-km grid spacingGEM-MACH15 performance is limited by accuracy of meteorological forecastsinput emissions fieldschemical lateral boundary conditionsprocess representationshorizontal and vertical resolutionPreliminary GEM-MACH15 performance evaluation is available for 2009-2011 periodFurther performance improvements are expected in next 18 months from implementation of new versions

Emphasize that the presentation will, from now on, describe GEM-MACH 15