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Planning Advisory Committee
September 26, 2018
MTEP19 Futures Resource Forecast and Siting Review
1
*Updated: DR information – Slide 5, Feedback request
info – Slide 8, Supporting materials in the appendix
Objective:
• Review resource expansion and siting results for the MTEP19 Futures
Key-Takeaways:
• MTEP19 trends similar to fleet changes in analogous
MTEP18 futures
• Generally increased renewable additions due to
decreased capital costs, tax credit modeling, and
increased renewable energy level targets
• Updated demand-side programs modeled in MTEP19,
including additional distributed solar programs
• Siting methodology enhancements implemented for
utility-scale wind and solar, distributed solar, energy
storage, and electric vehicles
2
Overview
3
MTEP19 Futures Development Schedule
January PAC •Schedule & expectations
February PAC
•Review uncertainty variables
•Discuss impacts of equal weightings
March Workshop
•Further discuss any changes
•Discuss feedback & present proposed futures
June PAC
•Finalize MTEP19 future definitions
September PAC
•Final MTEP19 futures results & draft siting
•Solicit Siting Feedback
October •Final MTEP19 Futures posted on MISO website
Upcoming feedback deadlines:
• October 12: MTEP19 draft siting feedback due
4
Recap of MTEP19 Futures Key Assumptions
MTEP19 Future Limited Fleet Change Continued Fleet Change Accelerated Fleet Change Distributed & Emerging
Technologies
Demand and Energy
Low
(Demand: 0.0%, Energy 0.0%)
High LRZ9 Industrial
Base (50/50)
(Demand: 0.3%, Energy 0.4%)
High
(Demand: 0.6%, Energy 0.9%)
Low LRZ9 Industrial
Base + EV
(Demand: 0.4%, Energy 1.0%)
Fuel Prices Gas: Base -30%
Coal: Base -3% Base
Gas: Base +30%
Coal: Base Base
Demand Side Additions1
By Year 2033
EE: - GW
DR: 1 GW
DG PV: 1 GW
EE: 5 GW
DR: 0.2 GW
DG PV: 1 GW
EE: 7 GW
DR: 1 GW
DG PV: 2 GW
EE: 5 GW
DR: 0.2 GW
DG PV: 3 GW
Storage: 2 GW
Min. Renewable Penetration Level
By Year 2033 (% Wind & Solar Energy) 15% 20% 35% 25%
Generation Retirements2
By Year 2033
Coal: 10 GW
Gas/Oil: 16 GW
Coal: 19 GW
Gas/Oil: 16 GW
Coal: 19 GW+
Gas/Oil: 16 GW
Coal: 19 GW
Gas/Oil: 16 GW
Nuclear: 3 GW
CO2 Reduction Constraint
From Current Levels by 2033 None None 20% None
Siting Methodology3 MTEP Standard MTEP Standard MTEP Standard “Localized”
1. Capacity of demand side additions from programs defined in Applied Energy Group study and economically selected in resource forecast. Energy storage in Distributed and Emerging Technology is additional assumption
2. In Accelerated Fleet Change Scenario 19 GW of coal retired. In addition, 12 GW of coal dispatched seasonally and must-run removed on all units.
3. “Localized” renewable siting assumes that at least 50% of incremental wind and solar energy will be sourced within each Local Resource Zone. 2/3 of solar sited as distributed.
MTEP19 Nameplate Capacity Additions (2018 through 2033)
5
9.6 13.2 13.2 20.4 9.6 15.6 9.6 1.2 3.6
10.8 42.0
10.8 2.0
7.2
13.5
30.4
42.7
DR: 0.6
DR: 0.2
DR: 0.5
DR: 0.2
5.0
6.8
5.5
-35.2 -44.6 -44.6 -47.5
30.6
58.3
102.5
82.8
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Additions Retirements Additions Retirements Additions Retirements Additions Retirements
Limited Fleet Change Continued Fleet Change Accelerated Fleet Change Distributed and EmergingTechnologies
Nam
ep
late
Cap
acit
y A
dd
itio
ns (
GW
)
Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Wind Energy Storage Solar PV DR Energy Efficiency Future Retirements
MTEP19 Energy Projections by Future (through 2033)1
6
76%
13%
7% 4%
48%
24%
16%
4% 8%
Accelerated Fleet Change Renewables and demand side
technologies added at a rate above
historical trends. Fleet changes result in a
20% CO2 emission reduction2.
Continued Fleet Change Continuation of the renewable addition
and coal retirement trends of the past
decade.
Limited Fleet Change Stalled generation fleet changes. Limited
renewables additions driven solely by
existing RPS under limited demand
growth.
2005
2033 Future Scenarios
Distributed & Emerging Tech New renewable additions largely
distributed and storage resources co-
located with largest sites.
2017
38%
32%
13%
11%
4%
2%
33%
31%
12%
14%
3% 3%
3%
30%
16%
11%
29%
7%
3% 4%
30%
32%
8%
13%
9%
4%
4%
1. Energy mix outputs from EGEAS do not consider transmission constraints
2. Emission reductions from current levels by year 2031
Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Units Siting* Accelerated Fleet Change Future
7 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review
MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018
Going Forward
8 * Because the feedback deadline is on the Oct PAC materials posting date, stakeholder feedback will be incorporated & posted after the Oct PAC meeting
Feedback Request:
• Please provide feedback on the MTEP19 siting and retirements assumptions by
October 12* via the MISO Feedback portal, and send any questions or
attachments to [email protected]
• Unit Siting Bus Locations – Please inform if site is not feasible (including why) and provide an
alternate siting location
• Retirements – all stakeholder feedback received to date has been incorporated and posted
Next Steps:
• Additional information as well as a summary of the entire MTEP19 Futures
development process will be provided in October*
• MTEP19 Futures PROMOD models will be posted for review in November
Questions?
Appendix
Limited Fleet Change Capacity Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)
12
0
10
20
30
M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19
2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033
Thermal Solar PV Wind
GW
Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind
Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Limited Fleet Change Future)
13
5,550
2,477 3,319
1,745 1,754
3,972 4,616
1,134
3,543
1,904
(3,873) (3,050)
(1,588) (2,452)
(3,385) (2,839)
(6,394)
(4,102)
(6,071)
(1,555)
-10
-5
0
5
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
GW
LRZ
Base Retirement Coal Retire Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG
Continuous Fleet Change Capacity Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)
14
0
10
20
30
40
M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19
2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033
Thermal Solar PV Wind
GW
Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind
Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Continuous Fleet Change Future)
15
7,945
3,728
6,229
3,297
7,084 7,863
7,064
1,667
5,136
3,043
(4,548)
(3,069)
(1,696)
(4,063)
(5,832) (5,005)
(8,999)
(4,102)
(6,071)
(1,555)
-10
-5
0
5
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
GW
LRZ
Base Retirement Coal Retirements Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG
Accelerated Fleet Change Capacity Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19
2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033
Thermal Solar PV Wind
GW
Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind
Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Accelerated Fleet Change Future)
17
13,799
5,166
17,251
7,256 8,451
10,547
18,956
2,905 3,186
7,823
(4,548) (3,069)
(1,696) (4,063)
(5,832) (5,005)
(8,999)
(4,102) (6,071)
(1,555)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
GW
LRZ
Base Retirement Coal Retire Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG
Distributed & Emerging Technology Cap. Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19
2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033
Thermal Solar PV Wind
GW
Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind
Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Distributed & Emerging Technology Future)
19
14,029
7,458 7,501 5,910
7,688 9,460 8,781
3,647
7,190 6,431
(5,094) (4,272)
(1,696)
(4,063) (5,832) (5,005)
(8,999)
(4,102)
(7,251)
(1,555)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
GW
LRZ
Base Retirement Coal Retire Nuclear Retirement Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG
Effective Load Carrying Capacity of Distributed &
Emerging Technology Future
20
4.8
15.6
32.4
8.7
22.8
42.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
MTEP18 MTEP19 MTEP18 MTEP19 MTEP18 MTEP19
2023 2028 2033
GW
Total PV (Utility + Distributed)
Reserve Contribution
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Solar
Capacity
Credit
50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30%
Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Limited Fleet Change Future
21 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback
MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018
Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Continued Fleet Change Future
22 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback
MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018
Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Accelerated Fleet Change Future
23 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback
MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018
Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Distributed & Emerging Technologies Future
24 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback
MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018
Wind Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Draft MTEP19 Siting
25 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback
Wind Tier (MW)
Total
Available
Capacity
Limited
Fleet
Change
Continued
Fleet
Change
Accelerated
Fleet Change
Distributed and
Emerging
Technology
Tier- 1 / RGOS 13,837 3,600 10,800 13,837 10,200
Tier- 2 19,400 - - 19,400 100
Tier- 3 10,550 - - 8,763 -
Tier- 4 20,350 - - - 200
Tier- 5 6,950 - - - 300
Total 71,087 3,600 10,800 42,000 10,800 MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018
Solar Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Draft MTEP19 Siting
26 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback
Solar Tier (MW) Total Available
Capacity Limited Fleet Change
Continued Fleet
Change
Accelerated Fleet
Change
Distributed and
Emerging Technology
Tier- 1 7,870 4,809 7,869 7,869 7,869
Tier- 2 25,234 - 1,102 12,369 6,363
Distributed N/A 2,405 4,485 10,119 28,463
Total 33,103 7,214 13,456 30,357 42,695
MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018
