Mt Eliza welcomes delegates and presenters to the

2008 UNICON conference2008 UNICON conference

SUSTAINABILITYor

SURVIVALin a Changing World

--------------------------------William Kininmonth

CLIMATE CHANGE IS NATURAL

• SUSTAINABILITY implies managing a controlled steady-state system

• SURVIVAL requires ongoing adaptation to q g g pan ever-changing system

The fear of climate change fails to recognize that climate is forever changingthat climate is forever changing.

Climate History from Ice Cores

Vostok AntarcticaVostok, Antarctica

Earth is slowly cooling

Temperature values from the GRIP ice-core borehole in Greenland.

The top left graph shows the past 100,000 years.

The top right graph shows the past 10,000 years (the interglacial Holocene).

The bottom graph shows the past 2 000 yearsthe past 2,000 years.

Drying since the Holocene Optimumy g s ce t e o oce e Opt u

Hanakaya, Saudi Arabia Rock carvings of grazing animals 4 000 years oldanimals – 4,000 years old

Evidence for a drying climate from North Africa, y g ,through the Middle East, and to Mongolia

Alpine Glaciers Advance and Retreat

As climate cooled fromAs climate cooled from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age glaciers advanced

ld id W iworldwide. Warming again set in during the early 18th century and the glaciers have gretreated.

Today there is no sign of the glacier that hadof the glacier that had extended to the French village of Chamonix.

Cyclic Rainfall Patterns

Southeastern Australian RainfallMean 600mm

0

50090

1

906

911

916

921

926

931

936

941

946

951

956

961

966

971

976

981

986

991

996 01 06mm

)

Mean - 600mm

-1000

-500

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20

late

d A

nom

aly

(m

-2000

-1500

Acc

umul

YearsYears

Rainfall over Southeastern Australia was greater in the second half of the 20th century than the first half.

Internal Climate Variabilityte a C ate a ab ty

El Nino March ‘98 La Nina March ‘08El Nino – March 98 La Nina – March 08

CO2 Forcing Needs VIAGRA!

25 0s (W

/m2) Radiation Forcing increments with CO2 concentration

15.0

20.0

25.0

rcin

g in

crem

ents

5.0

10.0

Rad

iatio

n fo

r

50 100 200 400 800Incremental Reduction in Infrared

Radiation Emission to Space 19.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

0.0

CO2 concentrationCO2 concentration

CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas but its Radiation Forcing potential is now nearly expended.

Evaporation constrains Surface Temperaturep

• More than 70 percent of Earth’s surface isMore than 70 percent of Earth s surface is ocean or well-watered land

• As surface temperature rises by 1oC:• As surface temperature rises by 1oC:– IR emission increases 5.4 W/m2

L t t h t l i 6 0 W/ 2– Latent heat loss increases 6.0 W/m2

• The radiation forcing from a doubling of 2CO2 concentration (3.7 W/m2) can only

sustain a surface temperature rise of 0.3oC

Computers Cannot Predict Climate

• The climate system is complex andThe climate system is complex and subject to many interacting processes.

• It is only in the last 5 years that routine• It is only in the last 5 years that routine measurements of the subsurface ocean circulations have been availablecirculations have been available.

• Models cannot represent deep convection.• Models grossly underestimate evaporation

increase with temperature.

Summarising the Science

• Climate is:Climate is: – Naturally variable

Regulated by a variety of influences– Regulated by a variety of influences– Not predictable

• Variations of climate have profound impact

Misunderstood ScienceMisguided Policiesg

• Geosequestration (burying) CO2Geosequestration (burying) CO2– Burn fossil fuels (non-renewable) faster!

Redirect agricultural focus• Redirect agricultural focus– Bio-fuels replace food crops to the detriment

of the world’s poor?of the world s poor?• Environment policies focus on reducing

CO i i th th l i lCO2 emission rather than clean air, clean water, ecosystem

ti tpreservation, etc

SUMMARY

• Humankind faces real problems butHumankind faces real problems but human-caused global warming is not one!

Climate will change faster than we are– Climate will change faster than we are prepared for

– Water renewable energy and food productionWater, renewable energy and food production are each regulated by changing climate

• SURVIVAL requires different policies to• SURVIVAL requires different policies to those for SUSTAINABILITY