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MSIM 752/852ANALYSIS II

2010 Edition

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THE COURSE 14 Sessions 3 hours each Mondays 7pm to 10pm Hosted from Quantico, ODU, Dahlgren, Sterling VA Prototype Session

One applied probability topic One operations research topic One lighter presentation or student presentation

Invitation open to append to the topic list Requests for research to the Professor Proposals for home-grown publication presentations

Non-linear sequence of research-centric presentations

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ONLINE RESOURCES

http://orsagouge.pbwiki.com/MSIM852 schedule lectures readings study questions student homework

www.blackboard.odu.edu Student email -- login and password

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ANALYSIS I

This course will introduce students to the topics in operations research and statistics necessary to conduct requirements-driven analysis. It will support the student in understanding the role of M&S within the applicable means of operational research as well as constraints and requirements when applying M&S in the domain of analysis and experimentation.

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ANALYSIS II

Course expands upon the student’s understanding and capability in the areas of stochastic processes and data analysis, especially as applied to analysis of simulation output data. Course includes theoretical underpinnings of stochastic processes commonly applied in analyses supported by simulation results.

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ANALYSIS II

Specific areas of investigation include design of simulation experiments, estimation of steady-state parameters, simulation-based optimization, and state-of-the-art application of

stochastic theory to simulation problems.

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THE WORK Students will present

One (1) Research Topical Presentation (15 MIN) Required: Each presentation will be pre-run, scheduled for

Sunday or Monday, over the phone with the professor for GO/NO GO

Handouts for the web (may be hand-written) SIGN UP for a time, starting

Written critiques for Three (3) analysis or modeling presentations focused on the value of the research presented on the state of the art orsagouge WinterSim link on orsagouge One or more seminal papers will be available on each topic via

the web, many are supported in texts such as Law and Kelton First Critique due 20 SEPT Last Critique due 6 DEC

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...more THE WORK Exercises

A. Basic concept & applicationB. Similar to final exam

questions Final Exam 13 DEC 09

A. Oral exam IVO ODU

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STUDENTS’ EXTRA EFFORT Students desiring excellent grades will also

construct a system simulation program (no re-use allowed) in a language of their choice, and apply several advanced statistical techniques to produce analytical results. Due dates…

Identify system simulated 13 SEPT (email) Simulation functional 1 NOV (email) Project analysis plan 8 NOV (email) Final portfolio of results due 22 NOV (ppt) Selected presentations at Student Simulation

Workshop, 29 NOV Presentation guidance on orsagouge

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FUNDAMENTALS OF A CRITQUE

Analysis (distillation) of the results presented Comparison of one or more publications relating to the content

(author usually provides two or more vectors) Analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the content,

especially the premises of the problem statement Potential applications of the methods presented to today’s

pressing simulation problems Evaluation of the impact of the content on the state of the art Two-page format Electronic submission Potential oral discourse during class

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POLICY

Presentations and critiques are property of the Class, and may be posted on the internet, or some other similar public forum Names on critiques will be removed No grades will be attached, but critical comments

will be made online or in class Presentation notes and critiques can be

emailed directly (mikebaileyvienna@earthlink.net, michael.bailey@usmc.mil or mpbailey@odu.edu)

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WHY WE ARE HERE

Introduction to today’s research in Analysis and related breakthroughs in Analytical Methods

Key fields and how they are arrayed Properties of quality research Key open areas and how to approach

PhD research Best sources for quality research

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…more WHY ARE WE HEREDiscussion of the research process

Targeting Reading Experimenting Consolidation Publication targeting Drafting Editing Special considerations for web

publishing

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…more WHY WE ARE HERE? Understanding the scale & scope of the

simulation field Personal growth

Craft Intellect Discipline Maturity

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Policy

Attendance via recorded video/audio/ppt is acceptable

An extra critique of one of the topics presented during that session is the pay-back

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PROFESSOR MIKE PhD from UNC, Chapel Hill

Stochastic processes Simulation from G. S. Fishman (Mister SIMSCRIPT)

Developer of air mission planning systems EA-6B, F-117, B-2

Naval Postgraduate School Professor of Operations Research Simulation for O. R., 1988-1995

OPNAV Staff Campaign Analyst (OPNAV N812D9)

USMC Principal Investigator for Modeling and Simulation Office of Science and Technology Director, Strategic Studies Group Technical Director, Training and Education Command Technical Director, USMC Operations Analysis Division