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M.sc. Snježana Fijan-Parlov
EKONERG, Atmospheric Protection Dpt.
24-25 June 2005
DG JRC
Ispra (VA), Italy
CROATIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING GHG FROM AGRICULTURE
Chronology of Inventory Preparation
GHG emission inventory (1990-1995) was prepared in 2000, in the framework of 1NC • In-depth review of 1NC, including GHG inventory, is done
(March 2002).
First National Inventory Report (NIR) for 1990-2001 (including CRF for all years) was prepared in September 2003.
NIR for 1990-2002 was prepared and submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat, first time in appropriate time (15 April 2004).
National Lead Stakeholders
Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction (MEPPPC) is responsible for GHG inventory preparation (National Focal Point).• reporting to international bodies
National Lead Institution (EKONERG)• EKONERG (Atmospheric Protection Dpt.) prepares GHG
inventory, based on contract with Ministry.
• EKONERG is responsible for co-ordination/compilation of inventory, archiving of relevant data, documentation of activity data, emission factors and methods used, validation & verification of data and compilation of report.
Arrangement of long-term contract for inventory preparation is one of the main goal in creation of sustainable inventory process.
National Steering Committee
Chair: Višnja Grgasović Members: representative of
UNDP country office, government Ministries, Statistics and data
Statistics (CBS) Energy Institute (EIHP)
Ministry of Interior Affairs (MIA) Other data providers
National Lead Institution: EKONERG - Energy Research and Environmental Protection Institute
Natioanal Institutions
Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning
and Construction
Croatian Environment Agency
provision institutions
Institutional Arrangements
* In near future, Agency will be responsible for GHG inventory preparation and EKONERG should be thematic center for air (together with some other institutions).
* National Steering Committee was established in the framework of Regional Project: “Capacity Building for Improving the Quality of Greenhouse Gas Inventories”
Scope of National Inventory
National Inventory Report is based on:• UNFCCC guidance on reporting and review (FCCC/CP/1999/7 &
FCCC/CP/2002/8)
• IPCC methodology (Revised 1996 & GPG Guidelines)
Detailed description of Inventory by Sectors and by GHG is provided in NIR.
Inventory covered: • all relevant sources and sinks in the framework of IPCC
methodology
• main anthropogenic direct GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs (SF6 wasn’t estimated); indirect GHG: CO, NOx, NMVOC; and SO2
GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture
The agricultural activities contribute directly to the emission of greenhouse gases through various processes. The following sources have been identified to make a more complete break down in the emission calculation:
Livestock: enteric fermentation (CH4) and manure management (CH4, N2O)
Agricultural soils (N2O)
GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture
The emission generated by burning the agricultural residues was not included in calculation because its activity is prohibited by low in Republic of Croatia. There are no ecosystems in Republic of Croatia that could be considered natural savannas or rice fields; consequently, no greenhouse gas emissions therefore exist for this sub-category.
IPCC methodology (Tier 1) and default EFs were mainly used.
Country specifics:• no country specific EF
Data gaps:• manure management statistics
GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture
Overview of activity data
Annual population of livestock (decline 1995-2002) Manure system (additional research needed) Synthetic fertilisers (additional research needed) Crop production data Area of histosols
National Institutions
Data Sources: • Central Bureau of Statistics (statistical data),
• Faculty of agriculture, Zagreb
• FAO data base
ADDITIONAL INTERCALCULATION
PREPARED DATA
...
EMISSIONFACTORS
Statisticaldata
EMISSION INVENTORY MODEL - IPCC SOFTWARE
Industrydata ...
ORIGINAL DATA
COPERT
FORESTRY
KEOFORMS
ENERGYBALANCE
(EIHP)
...
IPCCSPREADSHEETS
PSEUDO IPCCSPREADSHEET
REPORTING
Specific formulasIntercalculations
COPY INPUT NUMBERS
ALL DATA ARCHIVED ELECTRONICALY OR AS A HARD COPY
Description of GHG Emission Calculation System
Trend of Total GHG Emissions/Removals by Sectors
CO2- eq (Gg)
-10000
-6000
-2000
2000
6000
10000
14000
18000
22000
26000
30000
34000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
LUC&F
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial Processes
Energy
From 1995 to 2002, GHG emissions increased with average annual rate of 3.3%. If the emissions will continue to increase with this rate, emission Kyoto limit will be exceeded in 2005.
Total GHG emissions: in 1990 – 31.6 mil. t CO2-eqin 2002 – 28.0 mil. t CO2-eqEnergy sector: 67-76%
CO2 removals by sinks: 9 mil. t in 2002
Share of gasses in Total GHG Emission - 2002
CO2
76.8%
CH4
12.3%
N2O10.7%
HFCs, PFCs & SF6
0.2%
Trend of CH4 Emissions
CH4 (Gg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial Processes
Energy
Total CH4 emissions: in 1990 – 182 ktin 2002 – 163 kt
Share (%) 1990 2002
Energy 37 41Industrial Processes 0 0Agriculture 41 26Waste 21 33
Total CH4 100 100
Trend of N2O Emissions
N2O (Gg)
0
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
1011
12
13
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial Processes
Energy
Total N2O emissions: in 1990 – 12.5 ktin 2002 – 9.7 kt
Share (%) 1990 2002
Energy 2 6Industrial Processes 24 23Agriculture 70 68Waste 4 3
Total N2O 100 100
Key Sources Analyses, Tier 1IPCC Category Source GHG Level/Trend
ENERGY
Stationary Sources - Coal CO2 Level, Trend
Stationary Sources – Liquid Fuel CO2 Level, Trend
Stationary Sources – Natural Gas CO2 Level, Trend
Mobile Sources – Road Transport CO2 Level, Trend
Mobile Sources – Domestic Aviation Transport CO2 Trend
Mobile Sources – Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing CO2 Level
Mobile Sources – Road Transport N2O Trend
Fugitive Sources – Natural Gas and Oil CH4 Level, Trend
Natural Gas Scrubbing* - CPS Molve CO2 Level, Trend
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
Cement Production CO2 Level, Trend
Ammonia Production CO2 Level
Nitric Acid Production N2O Level, Trend
AGRICULTURE
Enteric Fermentation CH4 Level, Trend
Manure Management N2O Trend
Direct N2O Emission from Agricultural Soils N2O Level, Trend
Indirect N2O Emission from Nitrogen Used in Agr. N2O Level
WASTE
Solid Waste Disposal Sites CH4 Level, Trend
Uncertainty Analyses, Tier 1
High reliability level (uncertainty: < 10 %) CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions from Natural Gas Scrubbing CO2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Cement and Ammonia Production)
Medium reliability level (uncertainty: 10 to 50 %) CH4 Emissions from Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Lime Production, Limestone and Dolomite Use, Soda Ash Production and Use, Iron and Steal Production) CH4 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Other Chemical Production) CH4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation CH4 Emissions from Manure Management N2O Emissions from Industrial Processes (Nitric Acid Production) N2O Emissions from Human Sewage
Low reliability level (uncertainty: > 50 %) N2O Emissions from Fuel Combustion CH4 Fugitive Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas HFC Emissions from HFC Consumption N2O Emissions from Manure Management N2O Emissions from Agricultural Soils CH4 Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites According to our conservative assessment, the total uncertainty of GHG emission for 2002 was estimated at 36.1 percent, while the uncertainty of emission trend (1990-2002) was estimated at 6.7 percent.
Major problems
Quality of activity data EF
No research projects at the moment in the country that will eventually improve national data
Country specific data
Design of new National Inventory System
NationalReporting
System (KEO)Central Data Base
StatisticData
EnergyBalanceSystem
OtherSources ofInformation
NationalDataBase
Energy
Industrial processes
Waste
Agriculture
Forestry
Other
Counties
Municipalities
Pointsources
Collectivesources
Software tools fordata collection, management
emission calculationand reporting
Towns
Counties
National
UNFCCC(IPCC, CRF)
CLRTAP(UNECE)
EMEP
EUROSTAT
EEA/ATC
Regulation and guidelines
(CollectER)
Reporting
* Establishment of new National Inventory System is in progress.
Thank You for Your Attention!