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Online Resource 11. Regional and National Wildfire Results by Region and Decade for All Models/ScenariosClimatic Change Article: Quantifying and Monetizing Potential Climate Change Policy Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Wildfires in the United States
Authors: David Mills, Russell Jones, Karen Carney, Alexis St. Juliana, Richard Ready, Allison Crimmins, Jeremy Martinich, Kate Shouse, Benjamin DeAngelo, and Erwan Monier
Corresponding author: David Mills, Stratus Consulting Inc., [email protected]
1
Table 11.1 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 1
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
IGSM-CAM WIND = 1, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting
California North Ops
(126,451) 33,644 148,477 (389,034) (234,203) (157,496) (107,092) (342,226) 51,105 307,261 (816,016)
California South Ops
(684) (770,639) 147,961 497,630 339,866 1,399,436 1,455,714 633,576 934,707 1,360,775 5,998,342
East Basin 16,439 416,767 (1,384,604) 1,727,698 1,045,080 294,471 2,973,638 (1,229,251) (424,922) (2,735,189) 700,128
Eastern Area
894 (3,509,510) (790,897) 2,430,367 10,604,919 1,216,049 4,364,965 5,801,048 913,732 1,251,833 22,283,400
Eastern Great Basin
(71,616) (849,500) 48,745 912,397 155,058 (36,893) 500,171 (831,241) 176,898 (108,184) (104,167)
Northern Rockies
(1,256,406) 19,109 2,321,881 (5,926,457) 5,354,416 (947,475) 12,069,271 3,020,481 4,482,161 9,426,083 28,563,062
Northwest (809,553) 195,528 (926,618) 2,778,971 (1,802,451) 1,560,523 (211,333) (236,853) 129,337 147,175 824,726
Rocky Mountain
(149,848) 781,224 (9,648,229) 3,486,831 9,584,384 (1,198,263) 19,560,299 (3,887,961) (1,250,525) 21,395,565 38,673,477
Southern Area
(1,879,977) 13,264,239 (5,141,663) 11,278,328 6,519,160 673,634 1,274,883 (4,560,407) (4,084,916) (3,832,162) 13,511,120
Southwest (137,693) 4,314,894 (3,430,909) 2,920,479 3,688,305 8,868,206 596,054 6,960,125 5,028,677 6,221,172 35,029,311
Western Great Basin
(32,115) 285,454 1,187,166 714,353 586,378 (63,684) 109,491 (110,765) 456,577 778,571 3,911,426
Total (4,447,011) 14,181,211 (17,468,690) 20,431,562 35,840,912 11,608,507 42,586,061 5,216,525 6,412,831 34,212,900 148,574,809
2
Table 11.1 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 1
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%
California North Ops ($245) $77 $126 ($355) ($138) ($82) ($51) ($102) $10 $38 ($722)
California South Ops ($1) ($777) $87 $270 $127 $377 $299 $83 $104 $105 $674
East Basin $0 $5 ($9) $7 $3 $1 $7 ($3) ($0) ($3) $8
Eastern Area $0 ($332) ($52) $122 $355 $36 $97 $81 $13 $7 $328
Eastern Great Basin ($13) ($147) ($4) $82 $4 $1 $18 ($26) $2 ($4) ($88)
Northern Rockies ($757) ($149) $920 ($1,679) $1,156 ($35) $1,513 $218 $291 $440 $1,918
Northwest ($761) $433 ($545) $1,235 ($567) $376 ($47) ($35) $6 $9 $104
Rocky Mountain ($77) ($149) ($3,458) $940 $1,571 ($50) $2,134 ($489) ($13) $789 $1,199
Southern Area ($173) $993 ($354) $455 $200 $23 $37 ($69) ($42) ($33) $1,036
Southwest ($33) $873 ($550) $305 $281 $560 $45 $239 $121 $105 $1,945
Western Great Basin ($3) $22 $70 $31 $19 ($2) $2 ($1) $4 $6 $147
Total ($2,064) $849 ($3,768) $1,412 $3,011 $1,205 $4,054 ($104) $495 $1,459 $6,549
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
3
Table 11.2 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 13
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
IGSM-CAM WIND = 13, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting
California North Ops
366,114 (330,587) (21,481) 131,886 72,544 347,274 329,936 (7,818) 363,226 310,385 1,561,479
California South Ops
329,181 686,211 66,084 458,553 (167,120) 606,098 1,129,646 557,359 (537,244) 862,795 3,991,561
East Basin 377,411 (619,844) (87,624) 2,281,053 835,122 (3,256,939) 378,521 481,893 (2,036,943) 1,452,340 (195,012)
Eastern Area
3,294,477 (2,981,329) (1,232,503) 3,101,817 6,106,262 (2,394,858) 2,372,954 3,521,133 (8,124,093) 3,365,582 7,029,442
Eastern Great Basin
1,012,962 (735,107) (468,098) (509,611) (595,542) 91,289 (571,455) 986,759 (2,053,956) 27,934 (2,814,824)
Northern Rockies
4,554,205 2,297,623 (6,639,307) 1,771,751 (355,531) 4,911,912 (878,135) 8,225,050 (3,659,844) (3,202,221) 7,025,504
Northwest 850,204 (1,342,136) 390,378 2,510,252 257,035 3,070,971 2,855,409 1,406,952 (165,384) (1,149,808) 8,683,872
Rocky Mountain
5,938,935 (654,418) (19,488,934) (252,612) (2,315,616) (4,779,562) (2,872,277) 24,203,509 (12,256,984) (8,981,393) (21,459,351)
Southern Area
564,847 2,407,705 (2,818,481) (622,309) 3,675,215 (4,143,402) (206,722) 2,078,762 (1,640,544) (3,351,523) (4,056,454)
Southwest 172,867 3,304,037 (763,330) 354,486 3,909,870 (540,844) 5,259,925 6,133,390 5,138,212 7,131,618 30,100,230
Western Great Basin
77,777 (1,005,395) (389,401) (90,507) (440,042) (119,043) (642,765) 392,605 (1,797,730) (82,093) (4,096,594)
Total 17,538,981 1,026,761 (31,452,698) 9,134,760 10,982,196 (6,207,104) 7,155,037 47,979,593 (26,771,285) (3,616,386) 25,769,855
4
Table 11.2 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 13
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%
California North Ops $709 ($580) ($50) $90 $49 $177 $111 $3 $72 $46 $628
California South Ops $358 $444 $24 $226 ($98) $161 $257 $80 ($68) $76 $1,461
East Basin $4 ($8) ($1) $13 $4 ($10) $2 $1 ($2) $1 $4
Eastern Area $353 ($308) ($91) $178 $250 ($63) $57 $59 ($99) $28 $364
Eastern Great Basin $191 ($127) ($74) ($51) ($41) $0 ($23) $27 ($40) $1 ($138)
Northern Rockies $2,745 $1,083 ($2,697) $467 $138 $787 ($137) $791 ($211) ($155) $2,811
Northwest $800 ($1,109) $144 $906 $67 $752 $472 $181 ($7) ($86) $2,119
Rocky Mountain $3,043 ($916) ($6,831) ($83) ($387) ($779) ($114) $2,088 ($722) ($385) ($5,086)
Southern Area $52 $106 ($188) $17 $141 ($121) $8 $36 ($15) ($27) $9
Southwest $42 $635 ($178) $80 $355 ($57) $271 $230 $127 $138 $1,643
Western Great Basin $7 ($79) ($25) ($3) ($15) ($3) ($11) $5 ($18) ($0) ($144)
Total $8,303 ($857) ($9,969) $1,841 $462 $845 $891 $3,503 ($985) ($362) $3,671
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
5
Table 11.3 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 14
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
IGSM-CAM WIND = 14, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting
California North Ops
33,951.25 204,876 136,531 (320,258) 592,846 (448,923) 386,862 (153,796) 44,287 477,341 953,717
California South Ops
(12,053) (494,231) 255,132 (381,062) 875,658 (674,067) 745,634 271,306 1,054,808 1,702,505 3,343,630
East Basin (861,488) 1,382,431 7,691,627 (3,501,115) 246,887 2,556,924 456,041 (28,616) (972,434) 304,292 7,274,549
Eastern Area
79,517 1,823,243 17,222,210 (8,909,518) (2,743,838) 4,383,158 2,120,738 (1,324,887) 521,109 285,861 13,457,591
Eastern Great Basin
(648,961) 453,250 791,627 (590,476) (534,633) 221,322 554,216 (74,656) (886,756) 1,046,864 331,797
Northern Rockies
(435,539) (1,108,671) 3,614,887 (5,788,446) 3,581,260 (2,917,442) 7,304,312 (3,385,089) 871,035 (385,176) 1,351,130
Northwest (66,548) (1,582,336) 2,482,069 (3,013,228) 1,462,015 (394,482) 477,572 (999,843) (598,294) 41,125 (2,191,949)
Rocky Mountain
1,207,217 (2,796,759) 19,152,369 (19,001,449) (1,663,065) 10,993,137 7,889,871 15,827,210 (29,067) (5,810,477) 25,768,986
Southern Area
(519,155) 2,748,737 19,655,186 (7,836,524) (3,746,860) 10,754,994 2,574,302 (179,004) (864,415) 1,605,056 24,192,317
Southwest (140,355) 4,072,549 3,597,998 (5,192,134) (3,579,429) 7,313,180 5,694,662 7,519,204 8,616,004 7,434,983 35,336,664
Western Great Basin
177 (758,765) (122,914) (377,804) (648,348) (486,488) (23,300) (536,979) 456,916 684,824 (1,812,681)
Total (1,363,237) 3,944,323 74,476,722 (54,912,015) (6,157,506) 31,301,314 28,180,910 16,934,849 8,213,193 7,387,197 108,005,751
6
Table 11.3 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 14
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%
California North Ops $66 $325 $90 ($324) $398 ($246) $141 ($45) $11 $76 $491
California South Ops ($13) ($479) $186 ($210) $329 ($202) $170 $36 $128 $147 $93
East Basin ($10) $14 $56 ($16) $1 $7 $1 ($0) ($1) $0 $54
Eastern Area $9 $179 $1,166 ($389) ($106) $118 $45 ($21) $8 $1 $1,008
Eastern Great Basin ($122) $87 $68 ($68) ($37) $13 $23 ($1) ($15) $14 ($39)
Northern Rockies ($263) ($410) $1,071 ($1,423) $853 ($430) $901 ($306) $58 ($46) $5
Northwest ($63) ($1,196) $1,347 ($1,359) $486 ($142) $75 ($151) ($46) ($4) ($1,052)
Rocky Mountain $618 ($1,015) $5,846 ($4,163) ($128) $1,460 $885 $1,198 ($7) ($325) $4,369
Southern Area ($48) $201 $1,165 ($381) ($82) $275 $47 ($4) ($6) $10 $1,178
Southwest ($34) $872 $521 ($669) ($269) $513 $278 $257 $220 $143 $1,832
Western Great Basin $0 ($55) ($6) ($16) ($22) ($11) $0 ($8) $4 $5 ($108)
Total $141 ($1,478) $11,509 ($9,017) $1,426 $1,354 $2,565 $955 $353 $22 $7,830
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
7
Table 11.4 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 26
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
IGSM-CAM WIND = 26, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting
California North Ops
2,445 (262,808) (178,050) (171,523) 23,676 (31,123) (89,208) (194,132) 11,402 298,448 (590,874)
California South Ops
37,852 (69,789) (582,369) (254,086) 177,329 1,854,395 474,950 108,941 743,603 807,616 3,298,441
East Basin 1,073 1,372,745 (333,340) 1,967,082 (3,174,083) 5,729,176 (1,931,229) 597,126 (2,209,195) 1,905,648 3,925,005
Eastern Area
(1,121) 4,783,221 (1,126,715) 9,477,254 (6,447,063) 25,394,153 (3,263,687) 2,559,474 (3,283,237) 6,494,469 34,586,749
Eastern Great Basin
(22,247) (1,236,062) 157,618 1,626,225 (1,152,321) (539,516) (850,837) 909,295 273,827 (230,009) (1,064,027)
Northern Rockies
(1,626,121) 2,747,780 2,677,613 6,307,670 (12,381,457) 13,316,832 (5,150,326) 6,048,197 601,793 5,963,136 18,505,116
Northwest (154,703) 1,019,126 884,134 785,624 (216,807) 1,270,662 860,843 (761,622) 317,726 2,307,853 6,312,835
Rocky Mountain
(13,831,245) 18,859,802 3,282,247 7,400,663 (5,954,900) 19,273,695 (25,113,048) 13,683,737 (6,993,519) 35,267,364 45,874,796
Southern Area
(541,804) 5,152,786 (3,080,622) 588,867 (304,535) 5,976,671 (10,588,990) 6,740,903 (2,706,594) 432,629 1,669,311
Southwest 100,608 (3,618,785) (320,673) 1,593,206 2,187,971 3,635,446 2,632,855 6,995,722 3,357,363 2,991,117 19,554,830
Western Great Basin
(534) (655,183) (52,211) (745,741) (12,979) (23,127) 916,501 1,262,202 874,445 968,760 2,532,135
Total (16,035,798) 28,092,832 1,327,632 28,575,241 (27,255,169) 75,857,264 (42,102,176) 37,949,844 (9,012,385) 57,207,032 134,604,317
8
Table 11.4 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 26
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%
California North Ops $5 ($411) ($191) ($170) $25 ($11) ($35) ($53) $5 $38 ($798)
California South Ops $41 ($44) ($382) ($129) $81 $508 $108 $17 $90 $71 $362
East Basin $0 $13 ($4) $10 ($12) $17 ($4) $1 ($3) $2 $20
Eastern Area ($0) $439 ($77) $454 ($258) $703 ($72) $41 ($35) $57 $1,252
Eastern Great Basin ($4) ($197) $24 $137 ($87) ($32) ($29) $29 $7 ($3) ($156)
Northern Rockies ($980) $1,544 $1,320 $1,710 ($2,731) $2,138 ($593) $605 $14 $329 $3,356
Northwest ($146) $767 $492 $302 ($72) $303 $184 ($69) $43 $191 $1,995
Rocky Mountain ($7,086) $9,298 $1,304 $1,784 ($1,128) $2,590 ($2,556) $1,102 ($381) $1,592 $6,519
Southern Area ($50) $434 ($194) $21 ($17) $138 ($191) $91 ($30) $3 $206
Southwest $24 ($718) ($35) $119 $187 $224 $124 $251 $80 $61 $318
Western Great Basin ($0) ($50) ($3) ($35) ($0) ($0) $17 $17 $9 $7 ($38)
Total ($8,195) $11,074 $2,254 $4,204 ($4,011) $6,578 ($3,046) $2,030 ($200) $2,349 $13,036
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
9
Table 11.5 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 28
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
IGSM-CAM WIND = 28, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting
California North Ops
(134,638) (7,279) (72,277) (398,466) (260,766) (103,004) (109,540) (73,293) (376,135) 643,609 (891,790)
California South Ops
67,327 889,387 1,609,392 116,285 770,530 (321,662) 210,762 758,142 (28,238) 1,000,129 5,072,052
East Basin 2,756 (371,034) (364,602) (2,456,059) 977,998 2,048,001 (259,862) (2,796,788) 4,415,901 2,906,851 4,103,162
Eastern Area
43,799 (3,955,851) 2,125,622 (1,857,858) 6,177,350 6,830,209 (3,272,917) (9,667,522) 9,019,009 12,631,575 18,073,417
Eastern Great Basin
(70,511) 1,006,591 694,185 707,997 (558,094) 389,434 1,999,157 (347,089) 968,270 723,001 5,512,942
Northern Rockies
(197) (5,051,444) 7,152,893 (1,588,677) 6,770,945 6,250,495 7,804,450 (2,517,156) 6,099,504 8,267,272 33,188,084
Northwest (32,928) (249,570) 2,276,417 (292,137) (46,902) 3,284,948 1,763,580 2,471,807 209,222 2,271,502 11,655,940
Rocky Mountain
33,176 5,075,587.52 (4,835,630) 8,066,918 733,397 19,369,348 6,247,543 1,654,453 12,472,785 23,790,694 72,608,271
Southern Area
185,257 8,202,956 (6,030,119) 1,626,140 (4,081,109) 692,702 3,917,541 (8,452,655) 5,521,462 1,362,177 2,944,351
Southwest (387,825) 569,252 (1,936,672) (3,099,824) 3,161,115 2,591,279 3,573,293 11,466,904 6,330,249 9,356,118 31,623,889
Western Great Basin
118,165 2,874,994 2,120,112 3,277,928 1,177,500 1,323,016 (318,750) (636,732) 283,696 1,338,169 11,558,099
Total (175,620) 8,983,590 2,739,320 4,102,247 14,821,964 42,354,766 21,555,256 (8,139,930) 44,915,725 64,291,096 195,448,414
10
Table 11.5 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 28
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%
California North Ops ($261) ($65) ($141) ($357) ($172) ($53) ($23) ($13) ($70) $107 ($1,049)
California South Ops $73 $806 $1,065 $33 $313 ($105) $32 $129 ($4) $86 $2,428
East Basin $0 ($5) ($2) ($12) $5 $6 ($0) ($3) $5 $2 ($5)
Eastern Area $5 ($392) $134 ($78) $236 $185 ($68) ($130) $102 $97 $92
Eastern Great Basin ($13) $147 $67 $41 ($33) $12 $71 ($10) $20 $8 $311
Northern Rockies ($0) ($2,691) $2,309 ($621) $1,532 $889 $864 ($164) $401 $380 $2,898
Northwest ($31) ($328) $1,232 ($279) $53 $727 $314 $366 $45 $178 $2,277
Rocky Mountain $17 $1,735 ($1,993) $1,818 $310 $2,509 $555 $246 $683 $874 $6,754
Southern Area $17 $557 ($387) $69 ($114) $21 $82 ($99) $61 $9 $217
Southwest ($94) $92 ($331) ($399) $267 $172 $177 $411 $175 $177 $647
Western Great Basin $11 $218 $124 $142 $39 $31 ($5) ($9) $3 $10 $565
Total ($277) $73 $2,076 $358 $2,436 $4,394 $2,000 $723 $1,421 $1,929 $15,133
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
11
Table 11.6 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under CCSM
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
CCSM, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting
California North Ops
7,693 (35,455) 38,923 (45,843) 117,131 (72,152) 204,017 302,637 77,437 2,954 597,343
California South Ops
(14,466) (78,325) (104,245) 130,542 319,123 781,938 397,436 679,149 1,022,124 857,011 3,990,287
East Basin 0 482 16 (872,735) (144) 161 95 (894) (416,243) 578 (1,288,683)
Eastern Area
877 3,144 14,345 (133,453) 5,426 (6,770) 798,995 220,398 90,838 (1,580) 992,221
Eastern Great Basin
(85,734) 77,604 (54,072) (140,354) 494,811 551,384 518,148 851,062 771,699 1,678,718 4,663,265
Northern Rockies
15,040 412,661 166,982 1,275,632 103,502 3,516,041 1,801,152 3,496,529 2,928,571 5,265,675 18,981,787
Northwest (51,181) (240,269) 243,749 300,608 1,189,187 1,150,128 1,996,296 1,759,485 4,600,279 3,509,471 14,457,752
Rocky Mountain
(220,967) 984,287.28 (217,130) 7,468 320,038 2,498,460 4,256,563 4,827,167 4,605,740 5,201,269 22,262,897
Southern Area
(154,060) (441,231) 191,994 (734,160) (16,841) 538,548 2,137,295 2,559,465 (977,317) 2,057,859 5,161,551
Southwest 207,818 (86,756) (484,250) 374,905 968,791 1,485,787 3,041,582 3,507,885 4,398,254 4,745,665 18,159,680
Western Great Basin
(27,045) (26,661) (18,737) 112,953 128,307 85,041 476,563 484,848 368,429 1,071,927 2,655,625
Total (322,022) 569,481 (222,426) 275,563 3,629,331 10,528,565 15,628,142 18,687,734 17,469,812 24,389,547 90,633,725
12
Table 11.6 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under CCSM
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%
California North Ops $20 ($55) $47 ($41) $85 ($36) $63 $83 $13 ($2) $177
California South Ops ($14) ($77) ($95) $67 $120 $223 $87 $108 $121 $75 $617
East Basin $0 $0 $0 ($5) ($0) $0 $0 ($0) ($0) $0 ($5)
Eastern Area $0 $0 $1 ($7) $0 ($0) $16 $3 $1 ($0) $15
Eastern Great Basin ($17) $15 ($8) ($15) $32 $28 $18 $23 $16 $25 $117
Northern Rockies $10 $198 $75 $374 $22 $523 $196 $301 $194 $248 $2,140
Northwest ($63) ($186) $139 $144 $416 $293 $359 $237 $471 $262 $2,072
Rocky Mountain ($113) $473 ($66) $24 $35 $334 $413 $365 $253 $209 $1,927
Southern Area ($7) ($33) $17 ($33) ($1) $12 $34 $30 ($10) $15 $25
Southwest $62 ($19) ($78) $44 $85 $95 $140 $119 $112 $93 $653
Western Great Basin ($3) ($2) ($1) $5 $4 $2 $8 $7 $4 $8 $31
Total ($125) $314 $32 $558 $800 $1,474 $1,333 $1,276 $1,174 $933 $7,768
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
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Table 11.7 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under MIROC
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
MIROC, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting
California North Ops
(68,274) 27,527 7,520 (20,617) 44,374 104,474 (130,454) 183,862 217,747 205,886 572,043
California South Ops
6,464 (40,621) 64,848 (128,001) 490,723 151,675 630,505 739,141 703,365 707,959 3,326,060
East Basin 0 (106) 234,315 144,293 (78,572) 630,512 145,860 537,276 222,456 68,804 1,904,836
Eastern Area
(228,671) 215,984 (497,440) (337,774) 194,306 1,013,647 1,870,299 1,002,791 1,581,868 609,751 5,424,761
Eastern Great Basin
(97,565) 400,629 251,728 599,586 481,613 198,165 466,731 204,288 (212,298) 1,300,731 3,593,608
Northern Rockies
124,065 (90,242) 579,175 215,893 790,886 3,396,112 (190,562) 2,304,244 1,229,995 2,975,949 11,335,517
Northwest 240,083 473,373 145,947 347,648 426,812 2,027,237 (209,637) 1,449,420 2,370,600 2,135,200 9,406,682
Rocky Mountain
330,168 1,111,800 1,571,996 (1,000,169) 1,670,425 3,951,916 4,187,327 1,863,825 4,864,846 4,983,114 23,535,248
Southern Area
(142,273) (351,234) 32,655 371,083 50,518 2,819,651 635,658 4,569,483 2,945,859 8,161,656 19,093,055
Southwest (16,683) (176,643) 241,340 (303,071) 191,609 381,885 (18,813) 954,222 1,954,390 2,239,810 5,448,046
Western Great Basin
26,645 17,563 (50,121) 51,988 (189,550) 86,988 (214,034) (125,571) (372,318) 968,553 200,144
Total 173,958 1,588,031 2,581,963 (59,141) 4,073,145 14,762,261 7,172,880 13,682,980 15,506,510 24,357,412 83,840,000
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Table 11.7 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under MIROC
Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total
Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%
California North Ops ($135) $53 $4 ($16) $32 $51 ($36) $50 $46 $31 $79
California South Ops $13 ($48) $38 ($77) $184 $42 $141 $115 $78 $60 $548
East Basin $0 ($0) $1 $1 ($0) $2 $0 $1 $0 $0 $6
Eastern Area ($32) $19 ($30) ($16) $7 $29 $39 $15 $18 $5 $54
Eastern Great Basin ($15) $63 $29 $47 $30 $12 $18 $5 ($4) $19 $203
Northern Rockies $77 ($39) $202 $33 $165 $505 ($42) $200 $88 $134 $1,324
Northwest $259 $337 $113 $105 $125 $492 ($31) $192 $239 $160 $1,991
Rocky Mountain $172 $496 $471 ($232) $292 $541 $407 $144 $271 $193 $2,755
Southern Area ($15) ($23) $8 $17 $1 $69 $10 $55 $30 $56 $207
Southwest ($2) ($36) $38 ($37) $26 $27 $0 $33 $52 $44 $145
Western Great Basin $3 $2 ($3) $3 ($6) $2 ($4) ($1) ($4) $7 ($2)
Total $325 $823 $873 ($173) $855 $1,773 $503 $809 $813 $709 $7,311
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
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