Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

  • Upload
    gswalia

  • View
    240

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    1/22

    - Mrunal - http://mrunal.org -

    [Banking] Monetary Policy: Quantitative & Qualitative Tools,applications & limitations MSF, LAF, Repo, OMO, CRR, SLR,Revisited before upcoming Urjit Article

    Posted ByMrunalOn 30/01/2014 @ 7:13 pm In Economy | 244 Comments

    1. Prologue

    2. What is monetary policy?

    3. Quantitative Tools

    1. #1: Reserve Ratios (SLR and CRR)

    2. #2: Open Market Operation (OMO)

    3. #3: Policy Rate

    4. Bank Rate

    1. Liquidity Adjustment facility (LAF)

    2. LAF Repo Rate

    3. Marginal Standing facility (MSF)4. Reverse repo Rate

    5. Repo Rate in recent years:

    4. Monetary Policy: limitations

    5. Qualitative Tools

    1. #1: Margin Requirements/ LTV

    2. #2: Consumer credit regulation

    3. #3: Selective credit control

    4. #4: Moral Suasion

    6. Monetary policy tools: Quantiative vs Qualitative

    7. Appendix1. #1: Why High SLR and High CRR are bad?

    2. #2: Narsimhan (I) Committee 1991

    3. #3: Narsimhan (II) Committee 1998

    8. Mock Questions

    Prologue

    Next article is about RBI appointed Urjit Patel Committee on Monetary policy framework.

    But before dwelling into that, we must recap the basic concepts of what is monetary policy: its

    tools and limitations. Otherwise Urjit wont make much sense.

    Hence in a way, this whole article is a prologue to next article.

    Why RBI and Why Monetary policy?

    Initially people used barter system for trading. But the barter system had many problems (click me).

    Therefore, people switched to money system.

    Financial intermediates= middlemen who help in the circular flow of money between

    households and business firms.

    There are two types of financial intermediaries: banking institution and non-banking financialinstitutions.

    RBI controls (all) banks and (some) non-banking financial institutions.

    RBIs main job is to control Money supply in this game, and thereby fight inflation and

    http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://mrunal.org/2013/12/economy-barter-money-bitcoin-fungibility-double-coincidence-of-wants-division-of-labour-part-1.html#barter-limhttp://-/?-http://-/?-
  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    2/22

    deflation.Inflation = price rise = bad for economy, you know that by common sense.

    But Deflation= price decrease = we can buy things at a lower price. Isnt that good? Why is

    deflation bad for economy?

    Ans. Every business has fixed cost of production say minimum light bill, phone bill, office

    rent, staff salary etc. So, if prices keep falling and falling (say of Nano car), then car marker

    will suffer losses. He has no motivation to expand business. He wants to cut down hisproduction costs, by firing some of the employees= less new jobs created= unemployment =

    social unrest.

    If prices of everything fall- then custom duty, VAT, excise duty, service tax- their collection

    will also decrease. Then government has less money to spend on education, healthcare, social

    sector, defense, law and order = poverty, disease, crime.

    by the way

    TERM meaning Does RBI want it?

    DEFLATION fall in the prices (and fall IN employment.) No.

    DISINFLATION Fall in the prices but without causing unemployment. yes (while fighting

    inflation)

    STAGFLATION

    stagnation + inflation

    prices and wages rise

    but people cant find jobs, companies cant find

    customers.

    No

    REFLATION policy to stop the fall in price levels, but without causingrise in the price levels (inflation). yes

    What is monetary policy?

    Policy made by the central bank.

    To control money supply in the economy. (and thereby fight both inflation and deflation).

    RBI implements monetary policy using certain tools. Two types

    quantitative tool qualitative toolsLets start from here.

    Quantitative Tools

    #1: Reserve Ratios (SLR and CRR)

    SLR A Bank has to set aside this much money into gold or RBI approved securities. 23%

    CRR A Bank has to set aside this much as reserve. Bank cannot lend it to anyone. Bank

    earns no interest rate or profit on this. 4%

    Reserve ratio: SLR, CRR

    Suppose economy is showing inflationary trend. Prices of all goods and services are increasing

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    3/22

    day by day.How can RBI stop it using Reserve ratio as a tool?

    In this case, RBI should RAISE the reserve ratios.

    Observe:

    Right now

    People deposited total this much money in SBI (net demand & TIME liabilities

    NDTL) 100 cr.

    CRR (4%) [SBI has to keep this much cash aside for reserve] -4 cr

    SLR (23%) [SBI has to invest this much money in RBI approved securities] -23 cr.

    Money left with SBI 100-4-23=73

    Cores.

    Say RBI raises SRL to 40% and CRR to 15% then?

    Originally 100 cr

    SLR 40 -40CRR 15 -15

    Money left with SBI 45 cr.

    You can see, when Rajan has raised reserve ratio, money with SBI is reduced (from 73 crores to just

    45 crores.)

    What will be its implication?

    Imagine youre a money lender. Youve 100 crore rupees and you must make Rs.1 crore profit

    in a year.Obviously, you should lend it @1% interest rate. (because 1% of 100 crore = 1 crore.)

    But what if youve only 2 crore rupees, and you still want to make Rs.1 croer profit in a year?

    Now you must lend it @50% interest rate. (because 50% of 2 cores = 1 crore.)

    Observe that as money decreased (from 100 to 2), loan interest rate increased (from 1% to

    50%).

    Same happens when SBI is left with less money (after RBI increases reserve ratio).

    Lets prepare a flow chart.

    Situation: Economy has inflationary trend. Prices of goods and services increasing every day.

    Solution: RBI raised reserve ratio (CRR, SLR)

    Result:SBI is left with less money to lend.

    Consequences:

    1. SBI raises its loan interest rate

    2. Businessmen borrow less money from SBI

    3. Businessmen donot start new business. Donot expand existing business

    4. Result=Less jobs. Even existing employees discharged. If anyone remains in the job, he doesnt

    get pay raise. He starts cutting down unnecessary expenditure (e.g. buying two newspapers,

    getting his shirts ironed, drinking tea @4PM in office and so on. Thus even paper-wall, dhobi,

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    4/22

    chai-walla- everyones income reduced.)

    5. Result= Less income (Because of above reasons)

    6. Result= Less demand of goods and services (because less income).

    7. Ultimately shopkeeper will bring down the prices to attract people into buying more things.

    Thus inflation is reduced.

    You may doubt- what about supply side bottlenecks, what about cost push and demand pull inflation

    : Im not going into all that details at the moment, else this article will become longer than fivekilometers.

    Lets just prepare a summary table:

    Policy dear money cheap money

    Tool To fight inflation To fight deflation

    Reserve Ratio (CRR, SLR) Increase them. Decrease them.

    Moving to the next (Quantitative) tool. Under monetary policy

    #2: Open Market Operation (OMO)

    Open Market Operation= when RBI starts buying/selling government securities to control

    money supply.

    Government securities= piece of paper. It says something like this give me Rs.100, Ill give

    you 8% interest rate for next ten years and after that Ill repay the principle of Rs.100. This is

    how government borrows from others.

    Situation: Economy has inflationary trend. Prices of goods and services increasing every day.

    Solution: RBI starts selling government securities in open market.Result: SBI buys them and thus SBIs lending money is reduced. Wait. How?

    Imagine Rajan is selling sabzi (vegetables). If SBIs chairman Arundhati Madam goes to buy

    vegetables. Obviously madams money will decrease when she buys vegetables.

    Then same as usual:

    1. SBI left with less money to lend.

    2. SBI raises its loan interest rate (to keep profit margin same)

    3. Businessmen borrow less money from SBI.4. Businessmen donot start new business. Donot expand existing business

    5. Less jobs

    6. Less income

    7. Less demand

    8. Ultimately shopkeeper will bring down the prices to attract people into buying more things.

    Thus inflation is reduced.

    During deflation, RBI will do the reverse. (i.e. RBI buys Sabzi from SBI). How will it stop

    deflation? Think in your head.

    Lets update our table

    Policy dear money cheap money

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    5/22

    Tool To fight inflation To fight deflation

    Reserve Ratio (CRR, SLR) Increase them. Decrease them.

    Open Market Operation (OMO) RBI sell securities RBI buy securities

    Mock Question

    In 2013, UPSC walla asked a very chillar question from this topic.

    In context of Indian Economy, Open Market Operation refers to

    a. Borrowing by scheduled banks from RBI

    b. Lending by commercial banks to industries and trade

    c. Purchase and sale of government securities by the RBI

    d. None of Above

    Whenever you face a GS/GK type MCQ, Youve three choices

    Skip If you dont know the answer, Just leave it instead of risking negative mark.

    Attempt Correct answer is Opt C.

    Mark n

    Review.

    It means youve unsure of the answer. 50:50. So you mark the question number (say 45),

    at the back of your question paper. At the end of exam, if youre left with 10-15 free

    minutes. You look at the question again, and try to solve it.

    So, should you put above question in mark n review?

    No.

    Because its a definition based question. If you dont know the definition of OMO you might

    tick a wrong answer and fail. Most of the sincere players fail in prelims because of this reason.They push their luck in negative marking to overcome an imaginary cutoff and thus dig up

    their own grave. (especially during last 10-15 minutes of the exam.)

    Moral of the story: never put fact/definition type MCQs in Mark-n-Review.

    Lets solve a bit more complicated MCQ from 2012s CSAT paper.

    Q.Which of the following measures would result in an increase in the money supply in economy?

    1. Purchase of government securities from public by central bank

    2. Deposit of currency in commercial banks by the public

    3. Borrowing by government from the central bank.

    4. Sale of government securities to the public by central bank.

    Answer choice

    a. Only 1

    b. 2 and 4

    c. 1 and 3

    d. 2, 3 and 4

    Whenever you face such multiple statement type MCQs, always use elimination method. First finda statement that is definitely right or definitely wrong and eliminate choices accordingly.

    Focus on first statement Purchase of government securities from public by central bank: will

    it increase money supply in the system?

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    6/22

    Imagine Rajan puts an ad in newspaper: bring your Sabzi (vegetables), Ill buy it. Junta gives

    him their own veggies, Rajan gives them money. (a classic buy and sell).

    Ultimate result: money supply increased in the system- because junta got the money. Meaning

    #1 definitely correct.

    If you think it on technical terms. Central bank purchases government securities=OMO (Open

    market operation), where money shifts hands from RBI to people.

    Hence money supply increased. (In reality, money doesnt go to aam admi directly, but those

    bankers and non-banking institutions who participate in OMO). Anyways, #1 is right,Eliminate choices that do not have #1

    a. Only 1

    b. 2 and 4

    c. 1 and 3

    d. 2, 3 and 4

    Now the final answer depends on whether statement #3 is right or wrong?

    Statement #3 says Borrowing by government from the central bank. (So, will it increase

    money supply?)

    How does Government borrow from Central bank? Does Mohan just callup Rajan and demand

    1 lakh crores? No. Mohan will have to give Rajan that much government securities (vegetables)

    and Rajan will give him cash.

    Is money supply increased? Yes Mohan sold veggies to Rajan and got Money. Whenever Rajan

    buys veggies and pays the money supply is increased. (this is similar to Open Market

    operation)

    Besides, Mohan can then use money to pay salaries of government staff, pay for rail-road-

    bridges and other infrastructure projects, pay for MNREGA and so on. Therefore Answer C: 1

    and 3 correct.

    Counter- argument?

    What if Rajan subsequently sells those (Mohans) securities to bankers. Then bankers money

    reduced. Hence #3 is wrong. Therefore final answer A only 1.

    So, whats the final answer: is it A or is it C?

    Ultimate judge= UPSCs official answer key uploaded on their site.

    In 2012s Question paper Test series A, this is Q77: and its official answer is C. Therefore, both1 and 3 are correct.

    Anyways, what to do in the exam?

    Skip If you dont know the concept better skip.

    Attempt This question is attemptable if you dont drag the logic too much in statement #3.

    Mark n

    Review.

    Yes, it can be put under mark and review because this is not an absolute fact/ absolute

    definition type MCQ. If you apply some concepts, you can eliminate wrong choices. But

    still if doubt persists in the mind (e.g whether Statement 3 is right or not) then its always

    safe to skip and avoid negative marking.

    By the way, What about Statement #2: Deposit of currency in commercial banks by the public. (Will

    it increase money supply or not?)

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    7/22

    Viewpoint 1: yes. Because bank can used it to expand loanable credit. (as explained in Money

    creation topic in Class 12 NCERT Macroeconomics page 39 onwards).

    Viewpoint 2: no. (Because Bank will have to put some money aside as CRR- so that much

    money is less in the system.)

    Either way it doesnt change the answer. Because We know that statement 1 is definitely correct.

    And there is no option where (1,2) are given simultaneously.

    Anyways, Moving onSo far, RBI has two tools under monetary policy:

    1. reserve ratios (SLR, CRR)

    2. Open market operation.

    Third and the most important quantitative tool is

    #3: Policy Rate

    Policy rate= in case of India its Repo rate. Before moving further, lets refresh our concepts of

    Bank rate, LAF, MSF, Repo and Reverse repo.

    Bank Rate

    When banks borrow long term funds from RBI. Theyve to pay this much interest rate to RBI.

    [Note: different books give different explanation of Bank Rate. Ive usedNDTVs definition]

    At present, Bank rate= 9%

    Collateral: nothing. (Bank can borrow money without pledging government securities to RBI)

    Bank rate is not the main tool to control money supply these days.

    Nowadays, RBI uses LAF Repo rate as the main tool, to control money supply.

    Ok then Whats the use of Bank rate?

    Penal rates are linked with Bank rate. For example, If a bank doesnt maintain CRR, SLR as

    per the prescribed limit.

    Then RBI can impose penalty interest on such notorious bank.

    At present, Penalty rate = Bank rate + 3% (or 5% in some cases)

    Meaning if Bank rate = 9% then penalty rate=9+3=12%

    Anyways, what if RBI wants to fight inflation using bank rate as a tool?

    Obviously they should increase bank rate. That way it becomes harder (more expensive) for banks to

    borrow from RBI.=> SBI increases its loan rates (to keep the profit margin same). Result?

    Less people get home loan, bike loan, business loans.

    Less business expansion

    Less jobs

    Less incomes

    Less demand

    Ultimately shopkeeper will bring down the prices to attract people into buying more things.

    Thus inflation is reduced.

    Lets update our (stupid) table

    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/corporates/article-repo-rate-and-other-terms-explained-302105
  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    8/22

    Policy dear money cheap money

    Tool To fight inflation To fight deflation

    Reserve Ratio (CRR, SLR) Increase them. Decrease them.

    Open Market Operation (OMO) RBI sell securities RBI buy securities

    Bank rate Increase decrease

    Liquidity Adjustment facility (LAF)

    Liquidity Adjustment facility

    RBI started this in 2000. You can imagine it as a Adda/gambling den/gang-hideout where

    RBIs clients gather, consumer desi liquor, play cards, watch item songs and borrow money

    from RBI (or lend Money to RBI).

    By the way, who are the clients of RBI?= Central and state governments, Banks and non-

    banking financial institutions (NBFI). NBFI further includes:

    AIFI (all India finance institutions) NABARD, SIDBI, EXIM Bank and National

    Housing Bank.

    Primary dealers (Morgan Stanley , Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Standard

    Chartered Bank, HSBC etc.)Non-Banking financial companies.

    Anyways, Under this LAF adda, RBI has two tools:

    Repo If client borrows money from RBI (for short term) then client has to pay this much

    interest rate to RBI. At present Repo is 8%. (article written on 29th Jan 2014)

    Reverse

    Repo

    If client lends money to RBI (for short term) then RBI has to pay this much interest rate

    to client. RBI doesnt like headache. So they made a simple formula: Reverse repo rate=

    Repo MINUS 1%=8-1=7%.

    Collateral:

    Problem with running a adda/gambling-den = sometimes client drinks too much desi liquor

    and passes out on floor. Sometimes he even dies because of hooch. Sometimes police raids

    the den, and clients run away with cash and register.

    If such things happen, Rajan will be at loss. So, he demands government securities as

    collataral. So even if client doesnt repay money on time, Rajan can sell those securities (in

    open market operations) and recover money.

    LAF Repo Rate

    Lets get a bit technically correct now. Observe following image

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    9/22

    Scenario

    SBI chairman Arundhati mam wants to borrow Rs.100 crore (for short term).She gives her stash of government securities to Rajan.

    Rajan gives her Rs.100 crore.

    Madam Also signs an agreement

    I, Arundhati Bhattacharya, agree to buy same securities from Rajan, at 108 crores after 14

    days.

    Notice that she has agreed to re-purchase same securities from Rajan. Therefore its called

    Repo.

    And how much interest rate did she pay on this loan? [108-100]/100=8%. Thats our repo

    rate.

    Important:Recall that SBI also has to keep part of her money in RBI approved securities (under SLR).

    So Madam cannot USE those government securities to borrow under Repo Rate from Rajan.

    That leads to a new topic

    Marginal Standing facility (MSF)

    MSF mechanism is same as repo. But some differences

    LAF (Repo) MSF

    Rajan says dont come hereunless you want to borrow

    minimum Rs.5 crores.

    Minimum Rs. 1 crore.

    All clients are welcome i.e.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97816112@N02/12220419083/
  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    10/22

    Central and state

    governments

    Banks be it commercial

    bank or RRB or

    cooperative bank

    Non-banking financial

    institutions.

    Sorry. Not all clients welcome here.

    Only scheduled commercial banks can borrow under this

    window. SBI, PNB, BoB, ICICI etc.

    This MSF facility is specially created to help them solve

    short-term cash mis-match.

    You (bankers) cannot pledge

    securities from SLR quota to

    borrow from this window.

    Can use securities from SLR quota.

    No limit. You may borrow as

    much as you want. (as long as

    you have government securities

    to pledge to me.)

    Maximum 0.75% of NTDL. To put this in crude words, if SBI

    received 100 crores from aam-admi under savings account,

    current account, fixed deposit etc. then SBI can borrow only

    upto Rs.75 lakhs from RBI.

    Rajan decides Repo rate (8%

    right now)

    MSF = Repo Rate +1% = 8+1=9%. (earlier this margin of 1%

    used to be higher. But nowadays just 1%!)

    for those who still have doubt about Repo vs MSF:

    for repo borrowing, bank will need to pledge securities to Rajan. But bank cannot use SLR-reserved

    securities for this.

    so, imagine if a bank is in dire need of cash, but doesnt have spare government securities- then they

    can borrow using MSF by pledging those SLR securities. (and under MSF window, Rajan will

    demand 1% higher than Repo as one type of punishment for pledging SLR securities.)

    Reverse repo Rate

    Although self-explanatory. But lets checkRepo = clients borrow from Rajan and pay this much interest rate. (short term loan)

    Reverse repo= when Rajan himself borrows from clients, then he has to pay this much interest

    rate to clients.

    Collateral = yes. What if police raids this gambling-den, and Rajan runs away to Nepal? Clients

    can sell Rajans Government securities and recover their money.

    Reverse repo = Repo MINUS 1% = 8-1% =7%.

    Note: in official parlance, they call percentages in basis points so 1%=100 basis points. So in

    that official language, Reverse repo = Repo MINUS 100 basis points.

    Enough cheap jokes. What have we learned so far?

    That Rajan controls money supply using monetary policy.

    Under Monetary policy, Rajan has various weapons (or tools)

    1. Reserve ratios (SLR, CRR)

    2. OMO: Open market operation

    3. Rates: Bank rate, LAF (Repo, Reverse repo), MSF.

    We already know how to apply SLR, CRR and OMO to fight inflation (and deflation.) let me paste

    the table again.

    Policy dear money cheap money

    Tool To fight inflation To fight deflation

    Reserve Ratio

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    11/22

    (CRR, SLR) Increase them. Decrease them.

    Open Market

    Operation

    (OMO)

    RBI sell securities RBI buy securities

    Bank Rate increase it decrease it

    Repo rate increase it decrease it

    Reverse Repo its value is linked with Repo, hence cannot be increased/decreasedindependently.

    Marginal

    Standing Facility

    its value is linked with Repo, hence cannot be increased/decreased

    independently. Besides MSF= temporary firefighting, cash mismanagement.

    We learned that Rajan doesnt use Bank rate much, to control money supply.

    We learned that Rajan doesnt decide Reverse repo and MSF. (theyre automatically -1% and

    +1% of Repo rate).

    Thus the only thing Rajan has to decide under monetary policy= Repo rate. Therefore, Repo

    rate is called the policy rate

    Lets revisit out flow chart:

    Situation: Economy has inflationary trend. Prices of goods and services increasing every day.

    Solution: Rajan increases Repo rate. (say from 7.75% to 8%).

    Result: it becomes expensive for SBI to borrow from Rajan. Theyll increase their own rates as

    well.

    Wait. How?

    Just like how things roll in Onion biz.

    If prices of Onion rise in Maharashtras wholesale yard (in Lasangaon), then immediately, retail

    veggie @Ahmedabad will also raise their onion prices to keep the profit margin same.

    Whatll be the consequences (if repo rate is hiked / increased)?

    Consequences:

    1. SBI raises its loan interest rate (to keep profit margin same)

    2. Businessmen borrow less money from SBI.

    3. Businessmen donot start new business. Donot expand existing business.4. Less jobs

    5. Less income

    6. Less demand

    7. Ultimately shopkeeper will bring down the prices to attract people into buying more things.

    Thus inflation is reduced.

    Policy dear money cheap money

    Tool To fight inflation To fight deflation

    Reserve Ratio (CRR, SLR) Increase them. Decrease them.Open Market Operation (OMO) RBI sell securities RBI buy securities

    Policy Rate (Repo Rate) Increase it Decrease it

    Repo Rate in recent years:

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    12/22

    Lets observe with a graph: how RBI fought inflation/deflation in recent times using Repo rate as the

    main-weapon of monetary policy.

    From above above graph, you can see RBI has frequently changed its repo rate to combat both

    inflationary and deflationary trend. But Youd agree that inflation has not been contained. No matter

    what number juggling or statistical interpretations are given- the hardship of common man has not

    stopped- be it milk, petrol, onion, LPG anything.

    Agreed that prices of onion, sugar, pulses and food are subject to vagaries of monsoon and

    black marketeering. Rajan cannot do anything about it.

    Agreed that crude oil prices are subject to rupee-Dollar exchange rate, external factors and

    governments de-regulation of their prices. Rajan doesnt have much control over this.

    But still even in the non-food, non-fuel type commodities- RBIs monetary policies have failed to

    curb inflation. WHY? Observe the following image.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97816112@N02/12220418853/
  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    13/22

    Suppose Vijay Mallay got 100 crore loan from State Bank of India. If you trace the source of that

    money, itll turnout 60-70 crores came from banks savings account, fixed deposit etc. Rajan lends

    money in repo rate yes, but that doesnt mean banks depend only on Rajan to arrange the cash for

    its clients.

    Suppose Rajan reduces repo rate from 8% to 5%. Banks are not legally required to reduce their loan

    interest rates.

    The current system is following:Banks are free to decide their base rate. E.g. SBIs base rate is 10%.

    It means SBI wont loan money to anyone at an interest rate lower than 10% (except those

    farmers under Interest subvention scheme.)

    SBI will link all of its loan products with Base rate. For example

    SBI Base rate =10% Calculation Result

    Car loan 0.75% above Base rate 10.75%

    Two wheeler loan 8.25% above base rate 18.25%

    Education loan (upto 4 lakh) 3.5% above base rate 13.5%

    Home loan for women (upto 75 lakh) 0.10% above base rate 10.10%

    Meaning if SBI changes her Base rate then all of above loan interest rates will change automatically.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97816112@N02/12220829396/
  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    14/22

    If Rajan changes his repo rate, will SBI change her base rate?

    Not always.

    Because those common men are the main suppliers of money to SBI.

    RBI is not the main supplier of money to SBI.

    SBI will only change its base rate, when she feels necessary for its own profit / loss compared

    to its competitors.

    Does it mean Repo rate system is bogus and ineffective?

    Not always.

    In developing countries like India, most people park their money in only four things: savings

    account, fixed deposit (FD), provident fund and LIC. Weve mutual funds, weve NPS, weve

    ULIPs, weve Rajiv Gandhi equity savings scheme

    but most people (particularly the older generation) feels insecure in into such new things.

    Therefore lot of money flows into Savings accounts and fixed deposits= SBIs main source of

    money.But, In advanced economies, like USA, people dont invest large portion their income in

    savings account or FD. Theyve variety of investment options. So, for those American banks,

    their own Central bank (US Feds) is a significant money supplier.

    Hence US Feds monetary policy shows faster impact on their American Banks, THAN

    Rajans monetary policy on Desi banks.

    Monetary Policy: limitations

    In developing countries, Monetary fails to bring quick results because

    1. People dont have many investment alternatives. Commercial banks have large deposits. Rajan

    is not the main or even prominent money supplier for these banks. Whatever Rajan does, its

    effect will be felt only after 6-8 months but by that time, new factors would cause another rise

    in inflation and Rajan will have to start from scratch again.

    2. Non-Monetized economy: in rural areas, many transactions are still of barter nature. (E.g.

    kiranawalla cum middleman supplies seeds, pesticides, fertilizers- in exchange of share in

    farmers produce.)

    3. Lack of financial inclusion. Since most people are not in the banking net. They rely on Shroffs

    and moneylenders. Many of them circulate the black money of cops and politicians, and charge

    36% interest rate on loans. Rajan has no control over them.4. Monsoon uncertainty, cyclone, flood, draughts and their effect on food production. Food

    inflation =>newspaper walla, washerman, barber, car mechanic everyone will raise their

    service fees to accommodate their raised cost of living. Rajan has no control over them.

    5. Crude oil and gold import + negative effect when rupee weakens. Rajan can try to bring

    1$=Rs.65 to $1=63 Rs. But he has not enough forex reserves to bring $1=Rs.50.

    6. Fiscal deficit, illogical schemes. e.g MNREGA worker digs a temporary road. After first rain, t

    he road is wiped out= physical infrastructure added to economy no. Wages raised..yes. =

    this mismatch leads to more inflation.

    7. Subsidy leakage, Black money, underground economy.

    8. And most importantly, because Rajan uses Multi-indicator approach, he focuses on WPI

    (minus food and fuel). Thats why Urjit Patel recommends him to target CPI. More on that in

    next article.

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    15/22

    So far, we learned that RBI has two sets of tools/instruments under monetary policy:

    Quantitative tool Qualitative tools

    1. Reserve ratios

    2. OMO

    3. Policy rate (Repo Rate)

    Well see them in a moment

    Qualitative Tools

    #1: Margin Requirements/ LTV

    Mallya wants to borrow from SBI. He pledges his companys shares worth Rs.100 crores as

    collateral.

    For such loans, Rajan can prescribe margin, say 65%.

    In that case even if Mallya pledges 100 crores worth shares, SBI can give him 100-65=only 35

    Crore rupees as loan.Using this tool, Rajan can control money supply. e.g. during inflation, he should increase

    margin requirement, so Mallya can borrow less=> less job=>less income=>less

    demand=>prices reduced.

    If Rajan changes repo rate, it is not compulsory for SBI to change her loan interest rates. (we

    saw how Alok Nath keeps giving money to SBI, so they are not entirely dependent on Rajan.)

    But if Rajan changes margin requirements, then SBI and all other banks must obey it. In other

    words, this tool has direct impact on money supply.

    #2: Consumer credit regulation

    Suppose Nano car sells @1 lakh and Rajan has made rule that downpayment cannot be less

    than 30%.

    It means customer must bring Rs.30,000 from his pocket and bank can only give him

    maximum 70000 as loan.

    How can Rajan fight inflation with this tool?

    Increase downpayment from 30%=>50% (meaning bank can give less loan. Customer himself

    has to arrange lot of money from his own pocket)

    Rajan can make rule banks cannot accept EMI less than 5000 on car loan. Observe:

    Case #1: 100 EMIs worth 1000 each = 1,00,000. (ignore interest rates)

    Case #2: 20 EMIs worth 5000 each=1,00,000. (ignore interest rates)

    In case #2: some of the lower-middleclass families may postpone their decision to purchase nano car

    (Because they cant afford higher EMIs.)

    Result= less demand=>prices reduced. (indirectly- because car mechanics get less work,

    number-plate painters get less orders etc. so they reduce fees to attract new clients and retainexisting clients.)

    Thus, Rajan can control money supply by changing downpayment and installment (EMI) rules.

    #3: Selective credit control

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    16/22

    Under this, Rajan can specifically instruct bankers not to give loans to traders of certain

    commodities e.g. sugar, gur, edible oil etc.

    even if the said trader is ready to mortgage his shares/bonds/factory/machine/vehicle anything.

    this prevents speculations/ hoarding of commodities using money borrowed from banks.

    #4: Moral Suasion

    Here Rajan tries to persuade the bankers to do xyz thing. Example

    1. Please reduce giving automobile loans- instead park your money in government securities.

    (above the SLR requirements.)

    2. Ive reduced my repo rate, now you also reduce your base rate.

    Rajan will try to influence those bankers via- direct meetings, conference, giving media statements,

    giving speeches @public seminars, university convocations etc. (even where bankers are not

    present.) Hell do so, to build a public opinion, media opinion and influence those bankers by making

    them feel guilty.

    Rationing

    of credit

    Found in Planned economies/communist nations.

    Here central bank will decide upper limit to loans in each sector (heavy

    industries, service, agriculture, small-scale etc.)

    So once that quota is over. Additional loans cannot be given to that borrowers

    from that sector. This also controls money supply.

    Direct

    action

    Means RBI gives punishment to erring banks. Punishment can involve: penal interest,

    refuses to lend them money from LAF etc. and in worst case even cancels their banking

    license.

    Lets recap

    Monetary policy tools: Quantiative vs Qualitative

    Quantitative Qualitative

    1. Reserve ratios (SLR, CRR)

    2. Open Market Operation

    3. Policy rate (Repo Rate)

    1. Margin requirements / LTV

    2. Consumer credit regulation

    3. Selective credit control

    4. Moral Suasion5. Rationing of Credit

    6. Direct Action

    Indirect in nature. (Even if Rajan changes repo rate, its not

    necessary SBI will immediately change its base rate / loan

    interest rates.)

    Direct in nature. (e.g. those margin

    requirements)

    General- they affect money supply in entire economy- be it

    housing, automobile, manufacturing- everything.

    Selective- can affect money supply in

    a specific sector of economy e.g.

    automobile.

    Lets solve an Official MCQ from UPSC 2012 Question paper

    Q. RBI Acts as bankers bank. This would imply which of the following?

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    17/22

    1. Other banks retain their deposits with RBI

    2. RBI lends funds to commercial banks in the times of need.

    3. RBI advises commercial banks on monetary matters.

    Correct Statement

    1. Only 2 and 3

    2. Only 1 and 2

    3. Only 1 and 34. 1, 2 and 3

    Approach:

    Whenever you face such 3 statement MCQ or 4 statement MCQ, Always use elimination method.

    First you find out a statement that is definitely right or definitely wrong. In above case, we can see #2

    is definitely right. RBI lends funds to banks in the times of need (Repo, MSF)

    So lets eliminate choices that dont involve statement #2

    1. Only 2 and 3

    2. Only 1 and 2

    3. Only 1 and 3

    4. 1, 2 and 3

    This did not help much. We still have three choices left. Observe statement #1: Other banks

    retain their deposits with RBI. That is correct with respect to cash reserve ratio. CRR is one

    type of deposit that banks make to RBI. (RBI doesnt pay interest on it- thats a different story).

    Meaning #1 is also correct eliminate choices that donot have #1

    1. Only 2 and 32. Only 1 and 2

    3. Only 1 and 3

    4. 1, 2 and 3

    Only two choices left and the ultimate solution = is statement #3 is correct or not?

    Viewpoint #1 Viewpoint #2

    The statement says RBI advises commercial banks on monetary

    matters.The word advises makes this statement incorrect.

    Because RBI doesnt Advice they just order the banks- be itSLR, CRR, PSL. RBI doesnt advice, RBI gives orders and

    direction. Therefore statement #3 is wrong.

    RBI does advice those banks.

    We saw it under MoralSuasion. Therefore, Statement

    #3 is right.

    Even if we accept that RBI advices, still the questions asks

    what is implied by RBI as Bankers bank. So, RBI advices

    moral suasion that is a monetary policy tool. RBIs not doing it

    as a Banker to those banks. Therefore, Statement #3 is

    definitely wrong.

    Money Banking and finance, E

    Narayan Nadar (PHI

    publication). He has

    specifically listed this

    Advice function under

    Bankers bank topic.

    Answer (B) Answer (D)

    So, is it B or is it D? Final judge is UPSC.

    They had uploaded CSAt-2012 official answer key on their site.

    This question is Test Series A, Question #75 and its official answer is D = meaning all three

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    18/22

    statements are correct.

    If you face such MCQ in exam, what should be your approach?

    Skip

    Upto you. But if you start skipping all such question (OMO, Money supply, Bankers

    bank), because youre completely unaware of those topics=that is not pardonable.it shows

    youre underprepared for this exam. You should either change your study method or

    change the game- try for someeasierexam.

    AttemptThis question is attemptable, if you dont nitpick over the word advises in third

    statement.

    Mark n

    Review

    If youve thoroughly prepared the RBIs monetary tools (both qualitative and

    quantitative), you can solve it by applying concepts/principles- particularly the moral

    suasion thing. But if youre still doubtful over whether #3 is right or wrong, then better

    skip. If you skip because youre doubtful = that is pardonable. But if you skip because

    youre completely unaware of this topic= non-bailable offense.

    Appendix

    These are the topics I wanted to discuss in the article, but they would break the flow of other topics.

    Hence writing them @bottom:

    #1: Why High SLR and High CRR are bad?

    From the discussion so far, you might think why Rajan only focuses on Repo rate to control money

    supply. Why not simply raise SLR and CRR requirements.

    Lets check the de-merits of high SLR and CRR:

    Prior to LPG reforms in 90s, RBI used to keep SLR and CRR very high. Lets take an example

    A Bank can two types of deposits

    Deposit type examples

    Time Deposit Fixed deposit (FD) recurring deposit.

    Demand Deposit Savings account, current account

    Using this money, bank has to count its Net Demand and Time liabilities (NDTL), every

    fortnight. Suppose its 100 crores.Both CRR and SLR are counted on this figure. In the old times, these reserve ratios used to be

    as high as 15% and 40% respectively. Observe the effect:

    Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) +100 cr.

    Reserve ratios

    CRR (15%) (-) 15 [no profit]

    SLR (40%) (-) 40 [some profit]

    Money left with bank =45 cr.

    From 100 crores, barely 45 crores left with the bank. But adding insult to the injury- even here RBI

    mandates Priority sector lending (PSL). Meaning, at least 40% of the loans has to be given to

    farmers, small businessmen, students etc. groups.

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    19/22

    Lets update the table:

    Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) +100 cr.

    Reserve ratios

    CRR (15%) (-) 15 [no profit]

    SLR (40%) (-) 40 [some profit]

    Money left with bank =45

    PSL (40%) =45 x 0.4 =18 crore.Money left for big borrowers (i.e. big businessmen, upper middleclass) =45-18=27 crores.

    By the way, PSL is counted on annual basis while SLR, CRR counted on fortnight basis so

    above table is technically incorrect but Ive plugged in those numbers only for the sake of

    explanation.

    before the 90s- Government would even interfere and order public sector banks to give PSL-

    loans @cheap interest rates. The local politicians would coerce the branch manager to give

    PSL-loans to ineligible people. They default on loans, Branch manager cannot recover money

    (because defaulter will goto civil court then taarikh pe taarikh.) So, bank would have to forget

    about most of those 18 crores given in PSL loans.

    Anyways you can see people deposited 100 crores in the bank yet bank is left with barely 27

    crores (over which, bank has Freedom to decide whom they should give the loan.)

    What are the consequences for businessmen?

    1. High cost of credit (because bank will try to make maximum profit from those 27 crores- so

    bank will charge very high interest rate on the business loans- to pay off for the staff salaries,

    branch office rents and everything.)

    2. Businessman cannot expand his business.

    3. Less exports.

    4. Less tax income for the government.

    So in a way- that was also one of the factors leading to Balance of Payment crisis (and subsequently

    LPG reforms.) You can read more about that in NCERT Class 11- chapter 2 and 3.

    #2: Narsimhan (I) Committee 1991

    Plagued by problems and losses in nationalized banks, Government of India formed this Committee.

    Recommendations were:

    1. Deregulate interest rates. Let the banks decide their loan interest rates. Accepted. Gradually, we

    moved to the Base Rate system.

    2. PSL loans should be given at normal interest rates. Accepted (but with exception=> interest

    subvention- that we saw under Nachiket articles.)

    3. NPA/Loan default matter should be handled by separate body and not civil courts. Result: Debt

    recovery tribunal created in 1993. Ultimately SARFAESI Act in 2002.

    4. Reduce CRR, SLR. Accepted. Today weve them @4% and 23% respectively.

    5. Allow Private banks and foreign banks. RBI invited applications in 1993. ICICI, Axis, HDFC

    and many others got license.

    6. Liberate Branch expansion policy. Done (Except that 25% rural branching mandate we saw

    under Nachiket articles).

    7. Prepare NBFC regulatory framework. Accepted.

    8. Government should reduce shareholding (and thereby its official influence) in the public sector

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    20/22

    banks. Government agreed. Today governments shareholding in SBI =~60%.

    #3: Narsimhan (II) Committee 1998

    Suggested more reforms.

    1. allow VRS in the banks so they can get rid of excessive staff.

    2. Suggested additional Legal reforms for loan recovery. =>SARFAESI 2002.

    3. Computerization, electronic fund transfer, legal framework => Payment and Settlement

    Act=>Retail (ECS, NEFT, credit Card) + Wholesale (RTGS)

    4. Permit new private /foreign banks. RBI invited license in 2001= Yes Bank and Kotak

    Mahindra got licenses. 2013: RBI again invited applications for bank licenses.

    [Note: list of recommendations not exhaustive, Ive only highlighted important topics that show

    evolution of banking sector in recent times.]

    Mock Questions

    1. With open market operations, RBI cana. increase liquidity in the economy, but cannot decrease it

    b. decrease liquidity in the economy, but cannot increase it

    c. Can increase or decrease liquidity in the economy to control money supply.

    d. None of above.

    2. By which of the following methods, government can reduce money supply in the economy?

    a. taxation

    b. sale of securities to public

    c. both A and B

    d. neither A nor B

    3. During the period of deflation

    a. RBI should use dear money policy to combat it

    b. Government should reduce its tax rates.

    c. both A and B

    d. Neither A nor B.

    4. IF prices are lowered without causing unemployment, we call it:

    a. stagflation

    b. reflation

    c. disflaction

    d. Disinflation.5. Which of the following contains correct set of quantitative instruments of monetary policy?

    a. reserve ratio, bank rate, margin requirements

    b. open market operations, margin requirements, regulation of consumer credit

    c. cash reserve ratio, bank rate, open market operation

    d. None of above

    6. Which of the following contains correct set of qualitative instruments of monetary policy?

    a. reserve ratio, bank rate, margin requirements

    b. credit rationing, margin requirements, regulation of consumer credit

    c. cash reserve ratio, bank rate, open market operation

    d. None of above

    Q7. To counter the effect of deflation, which of the following steps should RBI initiate?

    1. decrease reserve ratios

    http://mrunal.org/2012/12/economy-sarfaesi-asset-reconstruction-company-arc-security-receipt-sr-qib-drt.html
  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    21/22

    2. buy government securities through open market operation

    3. increase policy rate

    Answer choices

    a. only 1 and 2

    b. only 2 and 3

    c. only 1 and 3

    d. 1, 2 and 3

    Q8. To counter inflation, which of the following steps should RBI initiate?

    1. Increase reserve ratios

    2. sell government securities through open market operation

    3. Increase policy rate

    Answer choices

    a. only 1 and 2b. only 2 and 3

    c. only 1 and 3

    d. 1, 2 and 3

    Q9. Which of the following may cause deflation in the economy?

    1. RBI raises policy rate

    2. RBI raises cash reserve ratio

    3. RBI sells securities

    Choices:

    a. only 1 and 2

    b. only 2 and 3

    c. only 1 and 3

    d. all 1,2 and 3

    Q10. Money supply in the economy, is affected by

    1. Cheap money policy and dear money policy.

    2. Open market operation and Moral Suasion.

    3. Consumer credit regulation and loan to value ratio.

    Choices:

    a. only 1 and 2

    b. only 2 and 3

    c. only 1 and 3

    d. all 1, 2 and 3

    Q11. An increase in SLR

    1. will restrict the expansion of banks credit

    2. will increase banks investment in safe securities

  • 7/25/2019 Mrunal Explained_ Monetary Policy, Rep, SLR, CRR, Qualitative Tools

    22/22

    3. will ensure solvency of the banks

    choices:

    a. only 1 and 2

    b. only 2 and 3

    c. only 1 and 3

    d. all 1,2 and 3

    Mains/interview type questions- after we check Urjit Patels recommendations on strengthening

    monetary policy.

    Hints

    1. can increase by buying, can decrease by selling

    2. both [or only B, depending on how UPSC examiner interprets the effect of taxation on money

    supply. In one of the reputed book on Banking and finance, author Narayan Nadar claimed

    taxation can affect money supply.]

    3. dear money policy during deflation =adds insult to the injury of businessman. If governmentreduces tax- then its revenue collection will drastically reduce. So both incorrect. [OR

    debatable- depending on how UPSC examiner interprets the effect of taxation during deflation.]

    4. directly given in the article.

    5. see the last table in the article

    6. see the last table in the article

    7. observe the table before the topic repo rate in recent years

    8. same as above

    9. same as above

    10. All correct. (Unless you nitpick and drag the logic too much.)

    11. same as above.

    Visit Mrunal.org/EconomyFor more on Money, Banking, Finance, Taxation and Economy.

    Article printed from Mrunal:http://mrunal.org

    URL to article: http://mrunal.org/2014/01/banking-monetary-policy-quantitative-qualitative-

    tools-applications-limitations-msf-laf-repo-omo-crr-slr-revisited-before-upcoming-urjit-

    article.html

    Copyright 2014 Mrunal. All rights reserved.

    http://mrunal.org/Economy