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10/24/19
Board of Directors | Item 14 | October 25, 2019 1
Board of Directors Item 14 | October 25, 2019
SAN DIEGO FORWARD: THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
• February 2019: Action plan to develop bold new vision and 2021 Regional Plan
• Actions to preserve the flow of transportation funds– Assembly Bill 1730
– 2019 Federal Regional Transportation Plan
Moving Towards a Bold New Vision
2
1
2
10/24/19
Board of Directors | Item 14 | October 25, 2019 2
THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
• Revokes California’s ability to enforce stricter greenhouse gas standards and zero-emission vehicle mandates
• Effective November 26, 2019
• SANDAG and other metropolitan planning organizations will be unable to make air quality conformity determinations– Cannot adopt Regional Transportation Plans
– Cannot adopt new Regional Transportation Improvement Programs and some types of amendments
Federal SAFE Rule
3
THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
• Updated revenue estimates and project costs
• Updated travel modeling tools and new Regional Growth Forecast
• $208 billion in investments
• Carries forward the projects, programs, and policies in the 2015 Regional Plan
2019 Federal Regional Transportation Plan
4
3
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10/24/19
Board of Directors | Item 14 | October 25, 2019 3
THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
• Collaboration with Community Based Organizations in Disadvantaged Communities
• Analysis of Disadvantaged Populations
• Assessment of equitable access to transportation choices
• Assessment of the distribution of transportation improvements
• No disparate impacts or disproportionate effects for minorities or low-income populations were found
Social Equity Analysis
5
THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
• SANDAG Board of Directors
• SANDAG Working Groups
• Tribal Consultation
• Public hearing
Public Involvement
6
• Network of Community Based Organizations
• Open houses
• Online comment tool, eblasts, social media
5
6
10/24/19
Board of Directors | Item 14 | October 25, 2019 4
THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
• Proposed Draft Transportation Network – 57 comments received
• Draft 2019 Federal RTP – More than 180 comments received
• Comment themes: – Support for 2019 Federal RTP & 5 Big Moves
– Need for more frequent and new transit services
– Concerns regarding congestion and travel times
– Support of specific projects/corridors
Public Comments
7
THE 2019 FEDERAL REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
Adopt Resolution No. 2019-12, adopting the air quality
conformity determination, finding that the Revenue
Constrained Plan is in conformance with the State
Implementation Plan for air quality, adopting the 2019
Federal Regional Transportation Plan and its supporting
analyses, and adopting findings in support of a Notice of
Exemption under the California Environmental Quality Act.
Action
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Board of Directors | Item 16 | October 25, 2019 1
Overview of the Financial Markets and Quarterly Finance Report
as of September 30, 2019
Board of Directors Item 16October 25, 2019
1
Key updates
Commission:
Senior Lien - AAA ratings Affirmed
Subordinate Lien – AA ratings Affirmed
Junior Lien – Upgraded A to A+
SR 125:
SR 125 Toll Road – Upgraded A- to A
2
1
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Board of Directors | Item 16 | October 25, 2019 2
Key updates
SANDAG:
Successfully closed on $335M GANS
• Orders placed 51 investors for $3.1B
• Lowered stated yield to 1.91%
• Expected yield is 1.57%
• Financing for Mid-Coast is complete
3
Key updates
Interest Rate Swaps:
- Mark-to-Market is in a negative position
- However, performing as intended and no reason to terminate swaps
Investment Portfolio:
- Currently $1.24 billion in investments
- Yield of 2.03%, expected to drift lower
4
3
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Board of Directors | Item 16 | October 25, 2019 3
Local Economy and Sales Tax Revenue Update
5
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
Jan
-19
Recovery (Jun-14)
6
Venture capital investment
Total employment
Source: BLS
Source: BLS Source:PwC/CBInsights MoneyTree™
Unemployment rate
The region’s economy remains strong
Source: EDD
Peak(Dec-07)
Trough(Jan-10) 78 Months
115+ Months
10.8%
3.2%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
-10
Jun
-10
No
v-1
0
Apr
-11
Se
p-1
1
Fe
b-1
2
Jul-
12
De
c-1
2
Ma
y-13
Oct
-13
Ma
r-14
Au
g-1
4
Jan
-15
Jun
-15
No
v-1
5
Apr
-16
Se
p-1
6
Fe
b-1
7
Jul-
17
De
c-1
7
Ma
y-18
Oct
-18
Ma
r-19
Au
g-1
9
Employment by industry
Per
cent
Mill
ions
Change Jan 2010- Sept 2019
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9*
Mill
ions
$
-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Information
Mining and Logging
Financial Activities
Other Services
Manufacturing
Trade, Transp. & Utilities
Government
Construction
Edu. & Health Services
Leisure &Hospitality
Prof. & Bus. Services
5
6
Board of Directors | Item 16 | October 25, 2019 4
7
Median house prices
Total employment
Source: BLS
Source: BLS
29.8
28.4
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
Jan
-16
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-16
Jul-
16
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-17
Jul-
17
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Ma
r-18
Ma
y-18
Jul-
18
Se
p-1
8
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Ma
r-19
Ma
y-19
Jul-
19
Source: California Association of Realtors
2.7%
2.1%
2.3%
1.6%1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Jan
-16
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-16
Jul-
16
Se
p-1
6N
ov-
16
Jan
-17
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-17
Jul-
17
Se
p-1
7N
ov-
17
Jan
-18
Ma
r-18
Ma
y-18
Jul-
18
Se
p-1
8N
ov-
18
Jan
-19
Ma
r-19
Ma
y-19
Jul-
19
Average hourly wages(2018 $)
Possible signs of economic weakness
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19
+5.8%+8.4%
+6.3% -0.5%
(YOY Percent Change)
* EstimateSource: Real Estate Research Council of Southern California
Residential permits
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
200
02
001
200
22
003
200
42
005
200
62
007
200
82
009
201
02
011
201
22
013
201
42
015
201
62
017
201
82
019
*
12,000 needed annually to support population growth
2010-2018average (7,700)
Sales tax revenue collection(California Department of Tax and Fee Administration—Methodology change)
Fiscal years
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
Mill
ions
$
$ 294.5 M
$ 301.5 M $ 305.5 M
$ 312.3 M
8
7
8
Board of Directors | Item 16 | October 25, 2019 5
$17
$28
$44
$61
$63
$85
50 100
Other food
Construction
Restaurants
Business To Business
Transportation
General Retail
Sales tax revenue by sector2018 Q2 to 2019 Q1
+1%
+3%
+5%
0%
+3%
+2%
Millions $
9
Impact of past recessions on TransNet revenues(Year of collection dollars)
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mill
ion
$
6 1/2 yearsto recover
4 yearsto recover
1991
rece
ssio
n
GDP-1.4%
GDP-0.3%
GDP-5.1%
2001
rec
essi
on
Gre
atre
cess
ion
Fiscal years10
9
10
Board of Directors | Item 16 | October 25, 2019 6
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Mill
ions
$
Fiscal years
Current TransNet forecast (2016-2026)(Year of collection dollars)
Historical data Forecast11
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Mill
ions
$
Fiscal years
Current TransNet forecast (2016-2026)(Year of collection dollars)
Historical data Forecast
Forecast +/-5%
12
11
12
Board of Directors | Item 16 | October 25, 2019 7
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Mill
ions
$
Fiscal years
Recession scenario
Historical data Forecast 1991 like recession
Forecast +/-5%
13
6 years to recover
Summary
14
+ Low unemployment
+ Resilient sectors
+ Record employment levels
- Employment growth slowing
- Housing market slowing
- Global/national recession risks
13
14