Moving people strategy: solutions to the nation’s long term (urban)

transport problems

Professor John StanleyInstitute of Transport and Logistics Studies

Faculty of Economics and BusinessThe University of Sydney

and Bus Industry Confederation

October 2008.

Scope

1. Summarise urban person transport problems

2. Suggest a range of solutions

3. Consider delivery responsibilities

4. Some conclusions

1. Urban person transport problems

1. Congestion/competitiveness

2. Climate change contribution

3. Social exclusion

4. Coping with patronage growth!

1-3 = The externalities problem!

1.1 Congestion/competitiveness

• Economic cost of traffic congestion was $10b in 2005 (BTRE)– Doubling by 2020

– Economic waste (1% of GDP)

– Austroads data suggests average speeds are declining

• Impacts adversely on livability and competitiveness for high growth, knowledge-intensive industries

• Also a problem on public transport, with rapid demand growth

1.2 Climate change

• Land transport third largest source and second fastest growing source

• Road transport accounts for almost 90%

• Melbourne more than double London, per capita (3t cf 1.2t)

+47.3%

+3.8%

+27.4%

-70.7%

+18.1%

+17.7%

-11.4%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Stationary energy

Agriculture

Transport

Land Use

Fugitive Emissions

Industrial Processes

Waste

Emissions (Mt CO2-e)

1990

2006

1.3 Social exclusion

• The demand for transport (mobility) is primarily a derived demand– Derived from a desire to work, shop, meet friends, visit a doctor,

etc (i.e. a desire for accessibility)

• Lack of transport (or poor mobility) can inhibit the capacity to undertake the activities from which DT derives

• Accessibility differs between locations and groups• This can contribute to (or even cause) social exclusion,

impacting negatively on well-being

Value judgment

• Social exclusion refers to a person’s inability to fully participate in society

• Proposition = dealing with specific origins of SE can increase inclusion and wellbeing

• Value judgment: all people have the right to a decent basic level of mobility, irrespective of personal circumstance- as a fundamental prerequisite for being able to enjoy

the opportunities afforded by our society

Varying trip rates

Trip Rates from BAV Warrnambool Case Study (2004)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Secondary students

Students outside W'bool

Deakin Residential students

Seniors

Aged in hostel

People with disability

Return trips/day

VAMPIRE (Dodgson and Sipe)

1.4 Patronage growth (% 97-07) (Source: Peter Newman)

2.1 Some solutions: road congestion (1)

• Time to reform road pricing– Fuel charge (carbon price) to cover GHG costs plus

road damage at light vehicle end– Mass-distance charge for heavier vehicles– Differential registration charges for air pollution – GPS-based congestion pricing– Abolish excise

• Use congestion charge revenue to substantially improve trunk PT services as alternatives – Some targeting of transport disadvantaged

Congestion solutions (2)

• Complement pricing reform with other demand management techniques (for more efficient use)– Network operating plans, HOT/HOV lanes,

TravelSmart,etc• Selective road capacity additions

– e.g. complete ring roads; improve some arterial capacity in fast growth areas

• Better integrate land use and transport planning (see below)

2.2 Climate change (GHG) solutions

Climate change solutions (2)

2.3 Social exclusion

• Minimum public transport service levels are a key element linking transport disadvantage with social inclusion (delivering a social justice approach)– Deals with many issues of mobility related exclusion– But fare levels, physical access, etc may still be issues

requiring attention

• Ultimately a political process to choose MSLs– Informed by involvement of target groups

• Rural/regional/outer metro areas most concerns

MSL in outer Melbourne

• To give most “at risk” (of TD leading to SE) people a chance to do most things at most times – Hourly service frequency within 400m

• Weekdays from 6.00am to 9.00pm• Saturdays 6.00am to midnight• Sundays 8.00am to 8.00pm

– Target ~30 minutes

• Longer term, focus much more on urban design for walking and cycling (Smart growth, urban densification, etc)

Effectiveness of MSL

-1.5%

1.5%3.0%

5.7% 6.3%5.0%

9.1%

14.3%

26.2%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

local (5 days/ week)

local (6 days/ week)

local (7 days/ week)

Full SmartBus Peak (city) Safety net tranche 1

Safety net tranche 2

Peak (city) SmartBus

Unchanged routes Upgraded routes

Patr

onag

e G

row

th (1

2 m

onth

s to

May

200

8)

59.5%

2.4 Land use/transport integration

The “linear city” as an alternative to sprawl: Curitiba

Melbourne example (Rob Adams) (1)

Melbourne example (2)

Scope to cater for 2m extra people

2.5 Institutional arrangements

• STO model

• The tactical level failure– Need for well-based strategic land

use/transport plans

• Placement of the T– Departments when well functioning– Separate agency, with the $, if major change

needed

2.6 Melbourne Example: Future premium bus routes

BRTBRTBRTBRTBRTBRTBRTBRTBRTDARTDARTDARTDARTDARTDARTDARTDARTDARTCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressCommuter ExpressNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNew SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusNon-Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusRed Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusGreen Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusBlue Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusYellow Orbital SmartBusTrainTrainTrainTrainTrainTrainTrainTrainTrainNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shownNOTE: Local routes not shown

WerribeeWerribeeWerribeeWerribeeWerribeeWerribeeWerribeeWerribeeWerribee

SydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenhamSydenham

CityCityCityCityCityCityCityCityCity

DoncasterDoncasterDoncasterDoncasterDoncasterDoncasterDoncasterDoncasterDoncaster

EppingEppingEppingEppingEppingEppingEppingEppingEpping

Fountain GateFountain GateFountain GateFountain GateFountain GateFountain GateFountain GateFountain GateFountain Gate

FrankstonFrankstonFrankstonFrankstonFrankstonFrankstonFrankstonFrankstonFrankston

Melbourne possible future local bus services

Train

Over 60 mins

48 to 60 mins

34 to 44 mins

24 to 34 mins

16 to 22 mins

Up to 15 mins

Now Possible future

Role of the Commonwealth• Time to get involved in urban person transport

– National interest dimension of competitiveness and climate change impacts (also exclusion)

• NTC to prepare and manage a National Transport Policy– Through ATC

• Infrastructure Australia funding as a lever to drive change within this policy framework (watch scope of IA)– Long term land use/transport plans and reformed road pricing (study at

first) as funding pre-conditions – Support on capital side, for completing ring roads, major rail upgrades,

BRT, bus fleet upgrade (based on Guidelines) , smart systems– Performance monitoring

3. Conclusions• States to implement integrated land use/transport plans

– TOD, including linear city model to be supported, with high quality urban design, walkability, etc

• Prepare for road pricing reform• Complete major ring roads• Supportive demand management• Substantially upgrade urban PT infrastructure and

services (some metros, BRT, increased frequencies)• NTC (through ATC) and IA as drivers of a national

approach