Flexibilizing the Brazilian Power Sector:

moving beyond large hydro plants with new technologies, energy efficiency and the role of the

consumer

Gilberto  M  Jannuzzi  University  of  Campinas  

Content    

•  The  energy  context:  the  recent  past  and  challenges  

•  Areas  of  current  research  – Energy  planning  and  policy  – Technology  foresight  studies  – ResidenBal  end-­‐uses  surveys  and  measurements  

The  Energy  Context  

The  energy  scene  

•  Total  energy  demand  is  increasing  faster  than  GDP  (2012-­‐13:  GDP  growth  2.3%  x  Energy  4.5%)  

•  Power  sector:  historically  hydro-­‐dependent  (70-­‐80%  annual  consumpBon  supplied  by  hydroelectricty)  

•  Climate  changes:  recurrent  drought  and  changing  river  flow  

 

ENERGIA  ARMAZENADA  EM  RESERVATÓRIOS:  2000  a  2014  

Fonte:  Operador  Nacional  do  Sistema  Elétrico  –  ONS  (2014)   12  

0  

25.000  

50.000  

75.000  

100.000  

125.000  

150.000  

175.000  

200.000  

225.000  

1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015  

Energia  Hídrica  méd

ia  Arm

azen

ada  [M

W/ano

]  

ANO  

SIN  

SE/CO  

S  

N  

NE  

8%  

69%  

18%   5%   S  

SE/CO  

NE  

N  

13  

EvoluBon  of  the  energy  stored  in  water  resevoirs  2013-­‐2022  (PNE  2030)  

Fonte:  Plano  Nacional  de  Energia  –  PNE  2030  

Analisando  a  previsão  de  capacidade  de  armazenamento  dos  reservatórios  ao  final  do  ano  de  2022,  percebe-­‐se  que,  em  termos  percentuais,  a  elevação  de  2%  é  bem  inferior  ao  aumento  da  capacidade  instalada  de  usinas  hidrelétricas,  de  40%.    

Our  current  research  

Our  studies  1.  Energy  future  outlook  studies:  Modelling  policies  to  

disseminate  distributed  RE  generaBon  technologies  and  energy  efficiency.  Market  transformaBon  potenBals  and  policies.  Water  and  Electricity  linkages.  

2.  Energy  technology  assessment  needs  for  climate  miBgaBon  and  adaptaBon  (including  new  storage  technologies  ).  DomesBc  R&D  capacity  and  technology  transfer  issues.  

3.  ResidenBal  consumer  behaviour:  end-­‐use  metering  and  surveys  (refrigerator,  lighBng  and  water  heaBng).  Low  income  energy  efficiency  programmes.  Smart  grids  in  the  residenBal  sector  

Our  approach  

Renewable Energy Energy

Efficiency

Energy policies

Climate policies

Socio-economic delopment

policies

Science, Technology

and Innovation policies

DSM,  consumer  behaviour  

DEMAND-­‐SIDE  RESOURCES  

End-­‐use  efficiency  Demand-­‐response  

Materials,  Storage  

technologies  INTERFACE  

TECHNOLOGIES  

Smart  appliances,  

grids,  meters  

Energy  sources  

(primary  and  secndary)  

SUPPLY-­‐SIDE  RESOURCES  Supply  side  efficiency  

Integrated  Resources  Planning  

Flexibilize  and    Integrate  Supply    And  Demand    Resources  

Grid-connected photovoltaic in Brazil: Policies and potential impacts for 2030

Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi a,⁎, Conrado Augustus de Melo b

a Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica and International Energy Initiative, IEI-LA, Caixa Postal 6122, Campinas, SP 13083-970, Brazilb Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Núcleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energético, NIPE e Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, FAPESP,Caixa Postal 6166, Campinas, SP 13083-896, Brazil

a b s t r a c ta r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:Received 14 May 2012Revised 22 October 2012Accepted 22 October 2012Available online 22 November 2012

Keywords:Solar energyGrid-connected photovoltaicsPolicy mechanismsDiffusion scenarios

This paper presents a prospective analysis of grid connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the Brazilianhousehold sector.With the reduction of solar PVmodule prices around theworld and the high tariffs for residen-tial consumers in Brazil some regions of the country with large solar radiation resource are reaching the gridelectricity-price parity. In this context the objective of this paper is to evaluate scenarios of technology diffusionup to 2030 considering policy mechanisms to foster the development of grid connected PV generation. The threemechanisms assessed are the net metering compensation scheme as proposed by the Brazilian Electricity Regu-latory Agency (ANEEL), feed-in tariffs and direct subsidies to PV installations. We evaluate the market penetra-tion potential in each case using a logit-function approach. The investigation results show that PV distributedtechnology has good opportunities for Brazil to diversify its energymatrix with potential economic and environ-mental benefits. However it is clear that the absence of long-term energy policy objectives for solar PV and thelack of additional support mechanisms could reflect in an inefficient and incipient adoption of this technologyand the loss of its potential benefits.

© 2012 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction

In Brazil solar photovoltaic systemshave becomean interesting optiondue to the combination of a) the high residential tariffs, ranging from 17up to 39 US$ cents per kW h, b) the large solar radiation resource avail-ability, ranging from over 1500 to nearly 2200 kW h/m2/year (Martinset al., 2008) and c) the international reduction of solar module pricesthat reduced from about 23 US$/W in 1980 to 1 US$/W in 2012 (DOE,2011 apud Mints, 2009).

Recent national initiatives have been implemented in Brazil tosupport the development of photovoltaic industry, services and market.In 1994 the national program PRODEEM (Program for Energy Develop-ment of States and Municipalities) was created, focusing on promotionenergy services to communities which had no access to conventionalgrid, mostly in the north and northeast regions. Later, in 2003, a nationalprogram called PROINFA (Alternative Electrical Energy Sources IncentiveProgram) was put in place to encourage the use of alternative energysources to produce electricity. PROINFA only supported electricity pro-jects based on wind, small hydraulic and biomass plants, but the experi-ence of conducting auctions and establishing a feed-in mechanism forthese sources represented an important step for advancing on policies

to support the market penetration of renewable technologies otherthan the conventional hydroelectric projects.

ANEEL approved in the year 2012 the regulation 482 (ANEEL, 2011a,b) aiming to reduce the barriers to develop the photovoltaic sector inBrazil.More specifically, it provides incentives to grid connecteddistrib-uted generation by small producers and introduces a net metering sys-tem. This way the local PV production has economic parity with thetariff paid for the electricity from the regular grid. This regulation is asignificant step for the establishment of the domestic market and willhave implications for the development of the photovoltaic componentindustry in Brazil. Furthermore this technology creates opportunitiesfor supplying part of the increasing energy demand in buildings whichis expected to at least double by 2030 (EPE, 2007). As on-site renewableenergy production becomes feasible, there should be less losses intransmission and distribution systems and these technologies help tomitigate CO2 emissions, which otherwise would be produced by newpower plants based on natural gas, oil and coal as planned (EPE, 2007).

Residential grid connected PV potential

The share of residential consumption in the total energy use isabout 10.5%. Fig. 1 shows the energy consumption curves for this sec-tor during the period 1990 to 2009. The main source is electricity(37.7%), followed by firewood (32.4%) and liquefied petroleum gas(LPG) (26.3%). According to official projections from the National En-ergy Plan 2030 (EPE, 2007) electricity consumption in the residentialsector will increase from 105 TW h in year 2010 to 283 TW h in 2030.

Energy for Sustainable Development 17 (2013) 40–46

⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 1935211720.E-mail addresses: jannuzz@fem.unicamp.br (G.M. Jannuzzi),

conradoaugustusmelo@gmail.com (C.A. de Melo).

0973-0826/$ – see front matter © 2012 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2012.10.010

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Energy for Sustainable Development

Jannuzzi,  Gilberto  de  Mar2no,  and  Conrado  Augustus  de  Melo.  2013.  “Grid-­‐Connected  Photovoltaic  in  Brazil:  Policies  and  Poten2al  Impacts  for  2030.”  Energy  for  Sustainable  Development  17  (1):  40–46.  doi:10.1016/j.esd.2012.10.010.  

Overview

Has the situation of the ‘have-nots’improved?Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi1∗ and Jose Goldemberg2

The need to promote significant changes in the production and use of energy inthe direction of cleaner fuels and greater energy efficiency provide opportunitiesto reduce this gap of energy consumption indices between the rich and poor, bothin developing and developed countries. Wide disparities in the access and con-sumption levels of modern fuels and electricity still persist between developingand developed countries, in spite of increased international awareness and ef-forts. This paper shows that progress has been made in order to increase access toelectricity and cleaner cooking fuels and this has improved the standards of livingof poor population. However, more efforts are necessary in order to speed up thereduction of the energy gap and eliminate energy poverty. Greater investmentsin energy efficiency are an essential part of this strategy and some countries arepursuing it. C⃝ 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How to cite this article:WIREs Energy Environ 2012, 1: 41–50 doi: 10.1002/wene.20

INTRODUCTION

G reater concern with climate change hasprompted the need to improve the production

and use of energy worldwide. The shift to cleaner fu-els and higher efficiency in the production and use ofenergy provides some opportunities to close the gap ofenergy consumption indices between developing anddeveloped countries.

The number of people without clean fuels forcooking or access to electricity is still very large.1,2

About 1.4 billion people around the world that lackaccess to electricity, some 85% of them in rural ar-eas. The number of people relying on the traditionaluse of biomass is even greater, about 2.7–3.0 billiontoday.3 Without additional specific policies, by 2030,the number of people without electricity may drop,but only to 1.2 billion, which will represent about15% of the world’s population, the majority of themliving in Sub-Saharan Africa. The lack of access toclean fuels for cooking and heating is even worse;

∗Correspondence to: jannuzzi@fem.unicamp.br1Center for Energy Studies, Interdisciplinary Center for EnergyPlanning, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil2Instituto de Eletrotecnica e Energia University of Sao Paulo, SaoPaulo, Brazil

DOI: 10.1002/wene.20

the numbers might increase or remain at current lev-els of 2.8 billion by year 2030 of people relying onsolid biomass for cooking and heating purposes.4 Inaddition, the effects of burning coal, firewood, andcharcoal for cooking has contributed toward GreenHouse Gases emissions5 and harmful effects on hu-man health as several studies have pointed out.6

Has the situation of the poorer people improvedover time with regards to access to electricity andcleaner cooking fuels? Has the gap between richer andpoorer nations being reduced? What are the trends?These are the questions we intend to address here.

ENERGY POVERTY, SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT, AND QUALITY OFLIFEThe millennium development goals (MDGs) formu-lated at the 2002 Johannesburg Summit was perhapsthe most significant effort recognizing the need toeradicate poverty as part of a global strategy for sus-tainable development.7 However, there are no energytargets in the MDGs for attaining energy access or en-ergy consumption levels among the poor, and energyis a requirement to meet the MDGs, as it is shown byModi et al.8 and others.

Volume 1, Ju ly /August 2012 41c⃝ 2012 John Wi ley & Sons , L td .

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Energy PovertyGlobal Challenges and Local Solutions

Edited by Antoine Halff, Benjamin K. Sovacool, andJon Rozhon

A one-stop treatment of energy poverty, an issuewhose pivotal role in the fight for humandevelopment and against poverty is only now beingrecognised

A practical guide and reference work forpolicymakers and practitioners in the field

Provides a fresh perspective on tomorrow's energychallenges

Brings together diverse viewpoints and includescontributions from experts and practitioners fromall over the world, including China, India, Brazil,sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East

Includes chapters from authors at the cutting edgeof research: Fatih Birol, chief economist of theInternational Energy Agency, Han Wenke, head ofChina's Energy Research Institute, Nigel Bruce ofthe World Health Organisation, and Jason Bordoff,former senior advisor on energy to PresidentBarack Obama

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Arts & Humanities Dictionaries & Reference Law Medicine & Health Science & Mathematics Social Sciences Journals HigherEducation

This edited volume looks at energy poverty, an issue whose pivotal role in the fight forhuman development is only now being recognised by policymakers. Nearly one quarter ofhumanity still lacks access to electricity. Close to one third rely on traditional fuels likefirewood and cow dung for cooking, at great cost to their health and welfare. While mostprevalent in parts of Africa and Asia, energy poverty is a global problem which concerns usall. This book, which brings together economists, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and otherpractitioners from all over the world, is dedicated to a single goal: finding a solution to thishaunting problem. It is part history, part economics, part political analysis, part businesscase review, and part field handbook. Part One focuses on defining and measuring theproblem and benchmarking progress in solving it, an obvious prerequisite to any successfulenergy-access policy. Part Two reviews past and current energy access programs, with aneye towards finding out what worked and what didn't and what can be replicated elsewhere.These case reviews are told as seen on the ground - China's experience by top Chineseofficials and Africa's by African regulators and scholars. Based in part on those cases, thebook's last, more forward-looking section aims to present practitioners with a tool kit, amenu of options to speed up their efforts. The energy access agenda is gaining traction at atime of rising concerns about climate change and resource constraints. This book shows thatbringing modern energy to those who lack it not just a moral imperative, but will likelybenefit the world as a whole without harming the environment or unduly stretching finiteresources.

Part I: Taking Stock of Energy Poverty Introduction: The End of Energy Poverty: Pathways to Development, Antoine Halff, BenjaminSovacool, and Jon Rozhon1. Achieving Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth, Fatih Birol2. Defining, Measuring, and Tackling Energy Poverty, Benjamin Sovacool3. The Development Impact of Energy Access, Douglas F. Barnes, Hussain Samad, CesarCalderon, and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee

“old  appliance"   “new  appliance"  

Evaluating public policy mechanisms for climate change mitigationin Brazilian buildings sector

Conrado Augustus de Melo b,nn, Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi a,n, Aline Ferreira Tripodi aa Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica and International Energy Initiative, IEI-LA, Caixa Postal 6122, Campinas,SP 13083-970, Brazilb Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP, Núcleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energético (NIPE), Campinas, SP 13083-896, Brazil

H I G H L I G H T S

! We apply a multi-criteria analysis to evaluate EE and RES policies mechanisms.! We apply marginal abatement cost curves to evaluate EE and RES policies mechanisms.! We provide rankings of mechanisms according to their prospective potential impacts.! There is a significant cost effective energy saving potential in Brazilian buildings.! Brazil should improve MEPS and implement other policy mechanisms.

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:Received 19 February 2013Accepted 13 June 2013

Keywords:Energy efficiencyRenewable energy sourcesPolicy mechanisms

a b s t r a c t

This paper applies a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) toevaluate public policies mechanisms to promote the dissemination of energy efficiency (EE) and on-siterenewable energy sources (RES) technologies in Brazilian buildings sector. The objective here is to bringtogether the advantages of both methods in order to provide more valuable insights to policy makers.The MCA results show that in the case of more integrative policies, which considers, for instance,potential of jobs creation, the mechanisms to foster distributed RES and solar water heaters are betterranked than in MACC analysis, where only cost-effectiveness of each option is evaluated. Other keyfinding is that: (1) there is a significant cost effective potential that could be reached through alternativemechanisms not implemented yet in the country, such as public procurement regulation and buildingcodes and; (2) minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) could be broader in scope and morestringent and include the use of energy in standby mode and tubular fluorescent lamps. In particular,some important appliances such as large air conditioning devices should have more aggressive MEPS.

& 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Several studies (e.g. IPCC, 2007; IEA, 2008; McKinsey andCompany, 2009; UNEP, 2009; DOE, 2012; PBL, 2012) have highlightedthe role of buildings in climate change and indicated the largepotential of CO2 emissions mitigation that can be achieved in thissector through the dissemination of energy efficiency (EE) and renew-able energy sources (RES). Energy use by buildings, and related green-house gas emissions (GHG, mostly in the form of carbon dioxide, CO2)are very significant around the world. According to UNEP (2007a) andIEA (2005b) 30–40% of all primary energy is used in buildings, for end-uses such as heating, cooking and plug loads, and constitute the main

source of CO2 emissions in many countries. For instance, the combus-tion of fossil fuels in the residential sector accounted for about 15% ofall CO2 emissions in UK (DECC, 2012). In the USA commercial and resi-dential buildings accounts for 39% of energy-related CO2 emissions(EIA, 2009). Moreover, in some developing countries such as Chinaand India the rapid increase in building construction and expansion ofinfrastructure are the main drivers for the increase in fossil fuelconsumption and related CO2 emissions (PBL, 2012; DOE, 2012).

In Brazil, the fuel combustion in residential, commercial andpublic buildings only accounts for about 2% of total CO2 emissionsin the country1 and about 10% of energy-related CO2 emissions.In absolute terms, in the year 2010, residential buildings accounted

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Energy Policy

0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.056

n Corresponding author.nn Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 1935211720.E-mail addresses: conradoaugustusmelo@gmail.com (C.A. Melo).

jannuzz@fem.unicamp.br (G.d.M. Jannuzzi).

1 In the year 2005 the total emissions of CO2-equivalent in Brazil was 2.2 billionof tons, which represented approximately 4.5% of global emissions in the sameyear. The sector “change in land use and forestry”, which includes the deforestationin the Amazon and other biomes (Cerrado, Caatinga, Pantanal, Pampas and Atlanticforest) took part with 61% of these emissions (MCT, 2010).

iPlease cite this article as: Melo, C.A., et al., Evaluating public policy mechanisms for climate change mitigation in Brazilianbuildings sector. Energy Policy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.056

Energy Policy ∎ (∎∎∎∎) ∎∎∎–∎∎∎

De  Melo,  Conrado  Augustus,  Gilberto  de  Mar2no  Jannuzzi,  and  Aline  Ferreira  Tripodi.  2013.  “Evalua2ng  Public  Policy  Mechanisms  for  Climate  Change  Mi2ga2on  in  Brazilian  Buildings  Sector.”  Energy  Policy  61  (October):  1200–1211.  doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.056.  

Jannuzzi,  G.  M.,  P.  H.  M.  Sant’Ana,  and  R.  D.  M.  Gomes.  2009.  Integração  de  Agenda  Mudanças  ClimáBcas:  Energia  E  Desenvolvimento.  Brasília:  CGEE  -­‐  Centro  de  Gestão  e  Estudos  Estratégicos.  

Jannuzzi,  Gilberto  M.,  P.  H.  M.  Sant’Ana,  and  R.  D.  M.  Gomes.  2008.  Energias  Do  Futuro.  Brasília:  CGEE  -­‐  Centro  de  Gestão  e  Estudos  Estratégicos.  hrp://gilbertomarBno.wordpress.com/2009/07/15/energias-­‐do-­‐futuro-­‐relatorio-­‐final/.  

Jannuzzi,  G.  M.,  P.  H.  M.  Sant’Ana,  and  R.  D.  M.  Gomes.  2010.  Oportunidades  Para  a  Difusão  de  Tecnologias  de  Energia  Limpas:  Subsídios  Para  a  ParBcipação  Nacional  Na  Conferência  de  Mudança  Do  Clima.  Brasília:  CGEE  -­‐  Centro  de  Gestão  e  Estudos  Estratégicos.  

Energy  Technology  Foresight,  Needs  and  DomesBc  Capacity  Status  

Gilberto  M  Jannuzzi,  and  Marcelo  K  Poppe.  2011.  “Desenvolvimento,  Cooperação  e  Transferência  de  Tecnologias  EnergéBcas  de  Baixa  Emissão.”  In  “Mudança  do  clima  no  Brasil:  aspectos  econômicos,  sociais  e  regulatórios“,  195-­‐210.  Brasília:  IPEA.  Also  in  English:  Development,  ”  Climate  Change  in  Brazil:  Economic,  Social  and  Regulatory  Aspects“,  Editors:  Seroa  da  Mora,  R.,  Hargrave,  J.;  Luedemann,  G.;  and  GuBerrez,  B.  S.,  Brasília,  Ipea,  2011  

Researchers  involved    

•  UNICAMP  – G.  M  Jannuzzi,  S.  Bajay,  A.  Furtado,  E.  Camilo,  A.  Causo  

•  CGEE  – M.  Poppe  

•  University  of  Bochum  – Prof.  C.  Pielow,  I.  Heitmann    

•  InternaBonal  Energy  IniBaBve  – R.  Gomes,  C.  Melo,  J  Paccola,  P  Santana  

NOPA  PROGRAM  

Supporters  (Last  5  years)    

sources  

26  

1.  Balanço  EnergéBco  Nacional  2014  -­‐  BEN  (2014).  “Ano-­‐base  2013”.  

2.  Empresa  de  Pesquisa  EnergéBca  -­‐  EPE:  Séries  Históricas  Completas  –  Capítulo  1  Análise  EnergéBca  e  Dados  Agregados  1970  a  2013.  

3.  Plano  Decenal  de  Expansão  de  Energia  2022.  EPE  e  MME,  2013.  

4.  Plano  Nacional  de  Energia  2030.  EPE  e  MME,  2007.  

5.  Estudos  de  Demanda  de  Energia:  Nota  Técnica  DEA  13/14  –  Demanda  2050.  EPE  e  MME,  2014.  

6.  Agência  Nacional  de  Energia  Elétrica:  Consulta  ao  Banco  de  Dados  de  Geração.  ANEEL,  2014.  

7.  Operador  Nacional  do  Sistema  Elétrico:  Consulta  ao  Banco  de  Dados  de  Operação.  ONS,  2014.  

THANK  YOU