Mountain Pine BeetleIn British Columbia

Climate Change and Fire Management Research Strategy Forum

February 18, 2009

“Mountain Pine Beetle – A Case Study of the Social, Economic and

Environmental Impacts of Climate Change”

Area Of Attack

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1999 2007

Mil

lio

ns

of

Hec

tare

s

164,567

• Last “Killing Winter” Was 1997/98

• Old + Mature Pine @ Contact: Est. 0.4 Billion m3

• Old + Mature Pine @ 1997:Est. 1.2 Billion m3

• 24% of 1.2 Billion m3:Est. 0.3 Billion m3

Fire Management & The Pine Portfolio

1) Fire suppression conserved the mature timber legacy2) Second growth practices allowed us to benefit from legacy at a higher rate of LRSY:• Tree improvement and Class A seed• Better site preparation• Minimal regeneration delay• Better density control• Forest fertilisation

One Problem With Paradigm: Climate Change

Forest Management Paradigm To Optimise LRSY

Economic Issues

……………………………………………………………………………………………..

Timber Supply Drives Economic ImpactTimber Supply

Loss Approximation

Timber Supply Forecast

Economic Opportunity In Dead Pine

Supply Improves

Accelerated Pine Salvage While Suitable For Sawmills

Supply Level Pre-EpidemicSupply Level Post-Epidemic

+- 10 million m3/Year

Forest Sector & The Economy

• Exports bring money into BC to pay for imports and consumption by population

• Called the ‘Economic Base’

• Interior industry is 19% of provincial base

• 40,000 direct jobs, high average salary

• $22,000 tax revenue/employee vs. $4000 average for other employees (2005)

Year 1 Year 2-3 Year ‘X’

• Amount and value of wood product declines with time – 17.5% in FII L&M Lumber study

• So does stumpage

Crown Revenues

Census Population Change % 1991-2006

50.4

%

45.1

%

25.3

%25

.2%

20.3

%

19.2

%

17.1

%

9.4%

6.0%

1.9%

1.7%

-0.3

%

-1.4

%-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

SLRD

CORD

BCNO

RD

CSRD

OSRD

TNRD

RDCK

RDEKCRD

FFGRD

BNRD

RDKB

Regional Districts

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Sub-Regional Economic Growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mackenzie Morice Fort St. James Lakes Cariboo/Chilcotin Prince George Lillooet West Kootenay Kamloops Okanagan-Shuswap

Forestry Other Industry Public Sector Transfers & Non-Empl. Income

Sub-Regional Economic Diversity

Rural Economic Transition

Risk to Economy of Boreal Forest• Canada, BC & Alberta Collaborating

• ‘Suppression’ Zone Trans-border

• Conditions Harsh For Beetle?

Lodgepole Pine

Jack Pine

Mountain pine beetle

Source: NRCan/CFS/PFC

No climate or biological barriers to MPB

Environmental Issues

Forest Composition & Carbon Storage

Hydrology of Watersheds

Net Effects on Some RiversPossibilities:

• More water yield

• Higher peak flows

• Quicker snow melt

• Earlier snow melt

• Increased ‘flashiness’

• Stream morphology

Actual Outcomes Depend On Intricate Relationships Between Snow Accumulations, Weather Events and Spring

Melt Rates

Wildlife Habitat-’Interior’ Birds-Cold Water Fish-Warm Water Fish-Ungulates

Visuals Grasslands and Range

Environmental Issues

Costs To Restore Resources, Data

Reforestation Resource Inventory Ecosystems

Social Issues

Community Resilience & Sustainability

Ability To Sustain:

• Industrial Tax Base

• Core Infrastructure

• Amenities and Services

• First Nations Culture

• Retired and Elderly Population

• Economic Growth

Public Safety

Recreation Sites Air Quality

Industrial Traffic

Worker Safety

New Preliminary Advice To Fire Crews:

• More crowning, even when calm

• Radiant heat ignites red foliage at > distance

• More ‘fire brands’, > spot fires

• “Black” zones not safe unless both surface and crown burned

Urban Interface Hazard and Risk

• “Fuel Management”

• Local Governments

• First Nations Govt’s

• 460,000 hectares at issue

……………………………………………………………………………………………..

Provincial Response Strategy

A ‘Triple Bottom Line’ StrategyBC MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE ACTION PLAN

• Economic sustainability for communities

• Recover the value of dead timber

• Restore Ecosystems

• Restore Forest Resources Of Other Kinds

• Conserve Society’s Values In Land Use Plans

• Public Safety, Health, Infrastructure

ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT SOCIETY

Co-ordinated, effective planning and implementation

END

www.gov.bc.ca/pinebeetle