Upload
virginia-mosley
View
218
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Motiva Board of Directors MeetingNovember 7, 2001
Convent Refinery and
Norco Refinery
Low Sulfur Gasoline Projects
Regulatory ActivityRegulatory Activity
LS Gasoline30 ppm Refinery Avg w/Credits
(90 ppm Corporate Avg) (300 ppm Cap)
LS Gasoline30 ppm Ref. Avg w/Credits
(80 ppm Cap)
LS GasolineNo Refinery Average
(120 ppm Corporate Avg)(300 ppm Cap)
EPA Phase II RFG Began
(1/1/00)
Atlanta30 ppm Sulfur
Gasoline
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
FEDERAL
STATE
North Carolina30 ppm Sulfur
Gasoline
Atlanta/Birmingham150 ppm Sulfur
Gasoline
Federal Low Sulfur StandardFederal Low Sulfur Standard
Standard (ppm S) 2004 2005 2006+
Refinery Average N/A 30 30
Refinery Per-Gallon Cap
300 300 80
Corporate Average 120 90 N/A
Credits / AllotmentsCredits / Allotments
Credits Refinery generates if < 90% of ‘97-’98 baseline during ‘00-‘03 Refinery generates if < 30 ppm S in ‘04+
Allotments Refinery generates in ‘03 only if < 60 ppm S
Refiner generates if < standard in ‘04 or ‘05
1997-98 Refinery Baseline Sulfur (ppm)
608
335
275
375
ConventDelaware CityNorcoPort ArthurCorporate Average
2000 Refinery Average Sulfur (ppm)
545
230
254
246
ConventDelaware CityNorcoPort ArthurCorporate Average
Refinery MOGAS Sulfur LevelRefinery MOGAS Sulfur Level
390 315
Federal S standard phased in over 3 years beginning ‘04 Atlanta area & North Carolina require 30 ppm S (80 ppm
cap) effective Apr‘03 and Jan‘04 respectively MTBE ban in Motiva markets by ‘05 due to state action or EPA ban under TSCA RFG oxygenate mandate remain in place - ethanol only acceptable replacement Market demand for RFG constant Overall gasoline supply volume will shrink by 2% 93 octane premium continues Premium demand falls by 2% points during 5 yr plan
Motiva PremisesMotiva Premises
Low Sulfur Gasoline StrategyLow Sulfur Gasoline Strategy
Atlanta area requires 30 ppm S gasoline Apr‘03 PAR will supply 20 MBPD ULR in 2003 NOR will supply 5 MBPD ULP in 2003
COR/NOR/PAR supply 30 ppm S gasoline to Atlanta / North Carolina during ‘04 & ‘05
Motiva will generate credits during ‘00 -‘03 as a result of RFG Phase II
Use credits to meet refinery avg (30 ppm) in ‘05 and ‘06 Motiva operate at corporate avg (120 ppm) in ‘04Motiva operate at corporate avg (90 ppm) in ‘05
TechnologiesTechnologies
Conventional HydrotreatingCD Tech ExxonMobil ScanfiningIFP Prime G and G+UOP ISAL and ISAL-2Phillips S-ZorbBP OATS
CD Tech Hydro / HDS Technology CD Tech Hydro / HDS Technology
CDHydro®
MCN + HCN
HCN from Main Fractionator Sidedraw
LCN
Hydrogen
MCN + HCN
MCN
HCN
CDHDS®
Hydrogen
AmineTreatand Recycle
POLISHINGREACTOR to
achieve Ultra Low S levelsMercaptans + di-olefinsform sulfides, which distill down to the bottom of column.
(Thioetherification)
Hydro-desulfurization
Hydrogen
FCC C5+Gasoline
CD Tech Hydro / HDSCD Tech Hydro / HDS
PRO’s Relative lower “Total Cost of Ownership” (TCO) Polishing reactor enhances octane retention (selectivity) Minimal yield loss Catalyst life consistent w/FCCU cycle Proven track record Adaptable to future ultra low sulfur (<10 ppm)
CON’S Catalyst costs (lease and handling)
Octane Loss Comparison Octane Loss Comparison
Technology(R+M)/2
(FCCU gasoline)$MM per year
(relative to base)
CDHDS+ 1.4 BaseScanfining-2 1.7 1.8CDHDS 2.5 6.9Scanfining-1 3.0 10.8IFP Prime G 3.8 15.4Conventional 4.3 19.1
Basis: (1) COR 57 MBPD full-range FCCU gasoline (2) 98.4% sulfur removal basis full-range (3) Light-cat FCCU gasoline treated w/CDHydro (4) Business Plan octane value – 0.8 cpg
NOR BLOCK FLOW DIAGRAMNOR BLOCK FLOW DIAGRAM
LCN ProductBPD 17,394
FCCU CD S, ppmw 40Debutanizer Bottoms Hydro RSH <5BPD 28,000 Br. No. 96S, ppmw 138Br. No. 71
CDHDS Stabilized Naphtha
BPD 55,355 BPD 55,239S, ppmw 807 S, ppmw 40
Br. No. 18
Stabilizer BottomsBPD 45,000S, ppmw 920Br. No. 40
NOR LSG PROJECT SCOPENOR LSG PROJECT SCOPE
$MMCD Tech Hydro/HDS 60
Includes palladium
Offsites 20
Feedstock/product/rerun lines Electrical infrastructure/expansion Utilities Site prep including demo/equipment relocation Hydrogen pipeline Off-spec tankage
NOR LSG Project Milestone ScheduleNOR LSG Project Milestone Schedule
ID Task Name
1 FEL
2 Permit
3 AFE
4 Detailed Engineering
5 Procurement
6 Construction
7 Commissioning & Startup
8 30 ppm S Gasoline to NC
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F2001 2002 2003
Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI)
0100200300400500600700
Nov-00 1-Jul
FEL Timeline
PD
RI S
core
Completion of FEL
Start of FEL
$MM
Business Plan 58
Additional OSBL Scope (piping) +10
Additional Equip. & Labor (CD Tech Unit) +6 Additional ISBL Engineering +3 Other +3
Current 80
NOR Current versus Forecast CapitalNOR Current versus Forecast Capital
NOR LSG Project Equipment SummaryNOR LSG Project Equipment Summary
Item
Business Plan
#
Current
#Vessels 9 23
Pumps 16 19
Exchangers 14 21
Compressor 1 1
Heater 1 1
Other 0 7
TOTAL 41 72
NOR LSG Capital ProjectNOR LSG Capital Project
Project Estimate
Project Capital $MM
Estimate Accuracy
Capital Range $MM
May 2000 (2001 Business Plan)
58 -30% / + 50% 41 to 88
Oct 2001 (Final AFE Estimate)
80 -10% / + 10% 72 to 88
NOR ‘Project Case’ EconomicsNOR ‘Project Case’ Economics
Project Case based on: Total project cost of $84.4 MM (capital plus project expense) Investment Equivalent of $9.7 MM for catalyst lease over 5-year catalyst life Tax Depreciation of 10 years Corporate Tax Rate of 36.3% Discount Rate of 10.5% Inflation Factor of 2.5% (for expenses)
NPV @ 10.5% Nominal / 8.8% Real $162 MM/$144.8 MM
Internal Rate of return - Nominal 33.1% Internal rate of Return - Real 29.9% Present Worth Payout - Start/Mech. Comp. 5.5 years / 2.7 years Value Investment Ratio - Nominal 2.4 Project Investment Projection
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
NIAT, $MM - (0.3) (1.9) (2.4) 19.7 18.6 33.9 33.9 ROACE, % - - (8.3) (4.5) 30.0 29.9 58.3 62.5 After Tax Cash Flow, $MM (0.5) (7.0) (33.5) (28.6) 26.2 25.1 39.4 39.0 Project Capital Expenditure Schedule, $MM 0.5 6.7 36.6 35.2 1.0 - - - Project Expense Expenditure Schedule, $MM - 0.5 3.0 0.9 - - - -
NOR Project Capital CostNOR Project Capital Cost
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
"- 10%" Project Case "+ 10%"
Capex ($MM)
NP
V (
$M
M)
20.0
23.3
26.7
30.0
33.3
36.7
40.0
IRR
(%
)
NPV IRR
NOR FCCU Naphtha ProcessingNOR FCCU Naphtha Processing
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
"- 1" "- 0.5" ProjectCase
"+ 1" "+ 2"
Processing Cost ($ per bbl)
NP
V
($M
M)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
IRR
(%
)
NPV IRR
Norco Premium GasolineNorco Premium Gasoline
Production Capability (MBPD)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2006+
93 Octane 92 Octane 91 Octane
Note: 2006 includes low sulfur gasoline and ethanol
COR BLOCK FLOW DIAGRAMCOR BLOCK FLOW DIAGRAM
LCN ProductBPD 18,418lb/hr 182,796S, ppmw 35Br. No. 113
RSH <5
FCCU CDDebutanizer Bottoms HydroBPD 57,000S, ppmw 1,732Br. No. 63
CD PolishingHDS Reactor Stabilized Naphtha
BPD 38,065 BPD 38,081S, ppmw 2,438 S, ppmw 28Br. No. 42 Br. No. 15
RSH 15
COR LSG PROJECT SCOPECOR LSG PROJECT SCOPE $MMCD Tech Hydro/HDS 55
Includes palladiumPolishing Reactor 5 Off-sites 25
65,000 feet of piping 1,000 feet of new piperack New and revised pumps/exchangers/coolers Storage tank conversions Site prep Underground sewer and firewater piping FCCU caustic treater modifications Engineering
COR LSG Project Milestone ScheduleCOR LSG Project Milestone Schedule
ID Task Name DUR
1 FEL 153d
2 Permits 239d
3 AFE Approval 0d
4 Detailed Engineering 283d
5 Procurement and Delivery 391d
6 Construction 414d
7 Commissioning & Start-up 43d
8 Mechanical Completion 0d
9 LSG at the Pump 0d
11/13
9/15
12/1
ON D J FMA M J J A S O N D J FMA M J J A S ON D J FMA M J J A S O N D J FMA M J J A S O N D J FMA M J J A S O2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI)
0100200300400500600700
Nov-00 1-Jul
FEL Timeline
PD
RI S
core
Completion of FEL
Start of FEL
$MM
Business Plan 69
Additional Equip. & Labor (CD Tech Unit) +10 Additional ISBL Engineering +3 Additional OSBL Piping & Piperack Scope +2 Additional Site Prep / OSBL Engineering +1
Current 85
COR Current versus Forecast CapitalCOR Current versus Forecast Capital
COR LSG Project Equipment SummaryCOR LSG Project Equipment Summary
Item
Business Plan
#
Current
#Vessels 14 32
Pumps 20 27
Exchangers/Coolers 20 26
Compressor 1 1
Heater 1 1
Other 0 7
TOTAL 56 94
COR LSG Capital ProjectCOR LSG Capital Project
Project Estimate
Project Capital $MM
Estimate Accuracy
Capital Range $MM
May 2000 (2001 Business Plan)
69 -30% / + 50% 48 to 104
Oct 2001 (Final AFE Estimate)
85 -10% / + 10% 77 to 94
COR ‘Project Case’ EconomicsCOR ‘Project Case’ Economics
NPV @ 10.5% Nominal / 8.8% Real $98.6 MM / $87 MM
Internal Rate of return - Nominal 27.4% Internal rate of Return - Real 24.3% Present Worth Payout - Start/Mech. Comp. 5.8 years / 3.1 years Value Investment Ratio - Nominal 1.3 Project Investment Projection
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
NIAT, $MM (2.2) 21.5 21.4 18.7 21.4 ROACE, % (3.5) 28.3 29.9 27.7 33.8 After Tax Cash Flow, $MM (7.0) (38.5) (32.3) 29.5 28.4 24.8 26.8 Project Capital Expenditure Schedule, $MM 7.0 41.0 37.0 - - - - Project Expense Expenditure Schedule, $MM - - 1.0 - - - - Project Case based on:
Total project cost of $ 86 MM (capital plus project expense) Investment Equivalent of $4.4 MM for catalyst lease Tax Depreciation of 10 years Corporate Tax Rate of 36.3% Discount Rate of 10.5% Inflation Factor of 2.5% (for expenses)
COR Project Capital CostCOR Project Capital Cost
90
95
100
105
110
"- 10%" Project Case "+ 10%"
Capex ($MM)
NP
V
($M
M)
20
25
30
35
40
IRR
(%
)
NPV IRR
COR FCCU Naphtha ProcessingCOR FCCU Naphtha Processing
0
50
100
150
200
250
"- 1" "-0.50" ProjectCase
"+ 1" "+ 2"
Processing Cost ($ per bbl)
NP
V
($M
M)
0
10
20
30
40
50
IRR
(%
)
NPV IRR