9/7/2016

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1By Scott Juds, President & CEO, SumGrowth Strategies, Seattle, WA

How StormGuard-ArmorStunningly Tames Bear Markers

September, 2016

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Here’s a Poster Child For the Problem

Why StormGuard-Armor?

What’s Going On?Well… a Guy Walks Into a Bar….

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Oooppps,I knocked the

knife off the table

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Yeeeoooo! Why didn’t you stop it from hitting my foot?

You know traders never catch a falling knife.

Why didn’t you move your foot?

I didn’t think it would fall that far!

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Is Momentum Broken or Pausing?

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Is Momentum Broken or Pausing?

Of Course He is Right – Turbulent Markets Have no Trends.

From Yoda Feb 2016

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Is Momentum Broken or Pausing?

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Is Momentum Broken or Pausing?Let’s Examine Strategy History and See

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StormGuard Real Time Performance

• React too fast and you suffer from whip-saw losses when sharp drops often snap back.

• React too slowly and you will get hurt if it really is a major market collapse.

From the Introductory Presentation:

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What’s Wrong With my Strategies?Death Crosses, and the Like, Can Be Fooled by Medium

Term Glitches. That includes StormGuard.

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Poster Child For the Problem

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StormGuard - ArmorIncorporating Price, Highs/Lows and Volume Data

Utilizing Matched Filter Theory, PID Algorithms & Fuzzy Logic

S&P-DA SG-Std SG-Armor

Sneak

Preview

Coming Spring 2016

S&P-DA SG-Std SG-Armor

Ann. Return 9.9% 11.2% 13.3%

Std. Deviation 16.9% 12.3% 10.4%

Sharpe Ratio 0.58 0.91 1.28

Time In Market 100% 83% 73%

Avg. Trades/Year 0.00 0.58 1.57

9/7/2016

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Why is StormGuard-Armor Better?

It Analyses Three Different Kinds of Market Behavior.

It Incorporates Event Detection, not Simply Timing Adjustments.

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Why is StormGuard-Armor Better?

Better Performance Comes From Having Three Sources of Information – Not Moving the Problem Elsewhere.

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StormGuard-Armor Performance

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StormGuard-Armor PerformanceRisk-On / Risk-Off … It’s Doubly Blessed

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What is a Bear Market Strategy?

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Why a Bear Market Strategy?

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Why a Bear Market Strategy?Because Optimism is Bearish

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Setting Up A Bear Market Strategy

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Finding Bear Market Candidates

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Treasuries Comparison

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Rolling 5-year correlation between US stocks and 5-year Treasury note.

Why Treasuries are a Problem

Hindsight Selection Bias

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Why Bonds are Problem

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Bonds & Treasuries Together?

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Gold Correlation to Stocks?

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Bear Strategy Candidate ETFs

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Let’s Go Live Onlinehttp://www.sumgrowth.com/InfoPages/Bear-Market-Strategy.aspx

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Bear Market Strategy Definitionshttp://www.sumgrowth.com/InfoPages/Bear-Market-Strategy.aspx

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SectorSurfers Don’t Walk on Water