15
A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE Advances 1,556 967 Decline 1,094 651 Unchanged 278 64 Volume (Rs) 3,317 Cr 21,540 Cr 60-minute For Private Circulation only The Nifty opened with a positive gap and ended the trading session higher. Interestingly, the Nifty today made a Morning Star pattern, which has bullish implications. Moreover, the Morning Star pattern has been formed taking support of the gap and 78.6% retracement level of the previous rally ie 8555. These are early signs of a trend reversal. After today’s Morning Star pattern, the shorting position should be kept with a tight stop loss. If the Nifty manages to break above 8737, then the bulls will be in a dominant position. However, the till the Index doesn’t break above 8737, the bears have an upper hand. An immediate resistance is at 8657, above which a move towards 8700 is likely. On the downside, 8612 – 8550 levels will act as support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty has once again closed around the Downward Sloping Trendline. It would be interesting to see if the Bank Nifty manages to sustain above it or not in the coming trading sessions. An immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty is at 19644 – 19730, whereas 19465 - 19362 will act as support. As there are no signs of a reversal yet, we maintain our bearish stance on the Nifty for a target of 8407 as long as it is trading below 8737. Other technical observations On the daily chart, the Nifty is trading below the 20- day moving average (DMA) and the 40-DMA, ie 8664 and 8673, respectively. The momentum indicator is in a positive mode on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HMA, ie 8614 and 8638, respectively, which are crucial intra-day levels. The hourly momentum indicator is in a positive mode. The market breadth was positive with 967 advances and 651 declines on the National Stock Exchange. Market on October 28, 2016: Resistance at 8657 Registered Office: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Registration details: BSE – INB/INF/INE011073351; NSE – INB/INF/ INE231073330; MSEI: INB/INF-261073333, CD - INE261073330; DP-NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004; PMS-INP000000662; Mutual Fund-ARN 20669 ; Commodity trading through Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-10080 ; (MCX/TCM/CORP/0425) ; NCDEX-00132 ; (NCDEX/TCM/ CORP/0142) ; NCDEX SPOT-NCDEXSPOT/116/CO/11/20626 ; For any complaints email at [email protected] ; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Do’s & Don’ts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on www.sharekhan.com before investing. 8 16 22 29 6 September 12 19 26 3 October 10 17 24 31 November 7 14 8370 8380 8390 8400 8410 8420 8430 8440 8450 8460 8470 8480 8490 8500 8510 8520 8530 8540 8550 8560 8570 8580 8590 8600 8610 8620 8630 8640 8650 8660 8670 8680 8690 8700 8710 8720 8730 8740 8750 8760 8770 8780 8790 8800 8810 8820 8830 8840 8850 8860 8870 8880 8890 8900 8910 8920 8930 8940 8950 8960 8970 8980 8990 9000 9010 9020 9030 8370 8380 8390 8400 8410 8420 8430 8440 8450 8460 8470 8480 8490 8500 8510 8520 8530 8540 8550 8560 8570 8580 8590 8600 8610 8620 8630 8640 8650 8660 8670 8680 8690 8700 8710 8720 8730 8740 8750 8760 8770 8780 8790 8800 8810 8820 8830 8840 8850 8860 8870 8880 8890 8900 8910 8920 8930 8940 8950 8960 8970 8980 8990 9000 9010 9020 9030 - NSE50 [NIFTY] (8,625.00, 8,653.75, 8,581.75, 8,639.95, +27.5498) -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 KST (-0.42787) 11 12 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 1 2 6 September 7 8 9 12 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 3 4 October 5 6 7 10 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 8440 8450 8460 8470 8480 8490 8500 8510 8520 8530 8540 8550 8560 8570 8580 8590 8600 8610 8620 8630 8640 8650 8660 8670 8680 8690 8700 8710 8720 8730 8740 8750 8760 8770 8780 8790 8800 8810 8820 8830 8840 8850 8860 8870 8880 8890 8900 8910 8920 8930 8940 8950 8960 8970 8980 8990 9000 9010 9020 9030 9040 9050 9060 8440 8450 8460 8470 8480 8490 8500 8510 8520 8530 8540 8550 8560 8570 8580 8590 8600 8610 8620 8630 8640 8650 8660 8670 8680 8690 8700 8710 8720 8730 8740 8750 8760 8770 8780 8790 8800 8810 8820 8830 8840 8850 8860 8870 8880 8890 8900 8910 8920 8930 8940 8950 8960 8970 8980 8990 9000 9010 9020 9030 9040 9050 9060 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 78.6% 100.0% - NSE50 [NIFTY] (8,648.00, 8,653.75, 8,631.60, 8,639.95, -8.29980) -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 KST (0.27565)

Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

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Page 1: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016

Punter’s Call

Morning star

Nifty daily: 8,638

Market breadth

BSE NSE

Advances 1,556 967

Decline 1,094 651

Unchanged 278 64

Volume (Rs) 3,317 Cr 21,540 Cr

60-minute

For Private Circulation only

The Nifty opened with a positive gap and ended the trading session higher. Interestingly, the Nifty today made a Morning Star pattern, which has bullish implications. Moreover, the Morning Star pattern has been formed taking support of the gap and 78.6% retracement level of the previous rally ie 8555. These are early signs of a trend reversal. After today’s Morning Star pattern, the shorting position should be kept with a tight stop loss. If the Nifty manages to break above 8737, then the bulls will be in a dominant position. However, the till the Index doesn’t break above 8737, the bears have an upper hand. An immediate resistance is at 8657, above which a move towards 8700 is likely. On the downside, 8612 – 8550 levels will act as support.

Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty has once again closed around the Downward Sloping Trendline. It would be interesting to see if the Bank Nifty manages to sustain above it or not in the coming trading sessions. An immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty is at 19644 – 19730, whereas 19465 - 19362 will act as support. As there are no signs of a reversal yet, we maintain our bearish stance on the Nifty for a target of 8407 as long as it is trading below 8737.

Other technical observations

On the daily chart, the Nifty is trading below the 20-day moving average (DMA) and the 40-DMA, ie 8664 and 8673, respectively. The momentum indicator is in a positive mode on the daily chart.

On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20-hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HMA, ie 8614 and 8638, respectively, which are crucial intra-day levels. The hourly momentum indicator is in a positive mode. The market breadth was positive with 967 advances and 651 declines on the National Stock Exchange.

After today’s Morning Star pattern, the shorting position should be kept with a tight stop loss

Market on October 28, 2016: Resistance at 8657

Registered Office: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Registration details: BSE – INB/INF/INE011073351; NSE – INB/INF/INE231073330; MSEI: INB/INF-261073333, CD - INE261073330; DP-NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004; PMS-INP000000662; Mutual Fund-ARN 20669 ; Commodity trading through Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-10080 ; (MCX/TCM/CORP/0425) ; NCDEX-00132 ; (NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0142) ; NCDEX SPOT-NCDEXSPOT/116/CO/11/20626 ; For any complaints email at [email protected] ; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Do’s & Don’ts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on www.sharekhan.com before investing.

August8 16 22 29 6

September12 19 26 3

October10 17 24 31

November7 14

8370838083908400841084208430844084508460847084808490850085108520853085408550856085708580859086008610862086308640865086608670868086908700871087208730874087508760877087808790880088108820883088408850886088708880889089008910892089308940895089608970898089909000901090209030

8370838083908400841084208430844084508460847084808490850085108520853085408550856085708580859086008610862086308640865086608670868086908700871087208730874087508760877087808790880088108820883088408850886088708880889089008910892089308940895089608970898089909000901090209030- NSE50 [NIFTY] (8,625.00, 8,653.75, 8,581.75, 8,639.95, +27.5498)

-1.5

-1.0-0.5

0.00.51.0

1.52.0

2.5

-1.5

-1.0-0.5

0.00.51.0

1.52.0

2.5KST (-0.42787)

9 10 11 12 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 1 2 6September

7 8 9 12 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 3 4October

5 6 7 10 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

844084508460847084808490850085108520853085408550856085708580859086008610862086308640865086608670868086908700871087208730874087508760877087808790880088108820883088408850886088708880889089008910892089308940895089608970898089909000901090209030904090509060

844084508460847084808490850085108520853085408550856085708580859086008610862086308640865086608670868086908700871087208730874087508760877087808790880088108820883088408850886088708880889089008910892089308940895089608970898089909000901090209030904090509060

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

78.6%

100.0%

- NSE50 [NIFTY] (8,648.00, 8,653.75, 8,631.60, 8,639.95, -8.29980)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5KST (0.27565)

Page 2: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 2 Home

Trendy Levels for Tomorrow

Sensex Nifty

Support Resistance Support Resistance

27858 28050 8612 8656

27627 28212 8550 8700

27488 28327 8507 8737

20 DSMA 40 DEMA 20 DSMA 40 DEMA

27990 28074 8664 8673

BSE Sensex: 27,941 Nifty: 8,638

Looking Trendy

Short Term Trend

Medium Term Trend

Icon guide

á

á

á

á Down Sideways Downswing matures Upswing maturesUp

Index Target Trend Reversal Support / Resistance

Sensex 27358 Up above 28256 27358/28256

Nifty 8407 Up above 8737 8407/8737

Index Target Trend Reversal Support / Resistance

Sensex 30025 Down Below 27358 27358/30025

Nifty 9119 Down Below 8407 8407/9119

á

á

á

á

Page 3: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 3 Home

Momentum Cash Ideas

TPB: Trailing profit bookedNOTE: Action taken after market hours will be highlited in blue colour.

Rules for momentum calls:1) The stop loss should be placed after 9.17am in order to avoid freak trade2) The same will be revised in the TradeTiger terminal every day for the pop-ups

For the short term—1 to 10 days

Action Date Stock Action Stop Loss/ Reversal Price Closing

Price

Potential % P/L at

CMPTarget1 Target 2

28-Oct-16 DHFL Buy 321.20 329.50 328.10 -0.42% 342.00 348.00

26-Oct-16 BHARATGEAR Buy 146.70 153.00 143.75 -6.05% 161.80 168.20

Smart Charts

NOTE: Kindly note that all stop losses in Smart Charts Calls are on closing ba sis unless specified. TPB: Trailing profit booked

Date Scrip Name Action Stop Loss ( On closing Basis )

Buy Price/ Sell Price

Call Closing Price/ CMP

Potential% P/L at Exit/

Current Target 1 Target 2

28-Oct-16 PIDILITIND Nov Fut Buy 703.05 723.95 723.55 -0.06% 753.00 775.00

27-Oct-16 Yes Bank Nov Fut Sell 1,310.15 1,259.15 1,276.00 -1.34% 1,185.00 1,150.00

Page 4: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 4 Home

Short Term Trend

Bank Nifty

Support: 19465/19362

Resistance: 19644/19730

Premium Technical Synopsis

*DCL # CMP ^Intra-day Tgt. = Target Rwd. = Reward

Action date Scrip Name Action Segments Stop loss (On Closing Basis ) Reco Price Closing

Price/ CMP

Potential P/L at

CMP(%) Target 1 Target 2

20-Oct-16 THOMASCOOK Buy Cash 200.50 217.50 215.30 -1.01% 256.00 265.00

4July

11 18 25 1August

8 16 22 29 6September

12 19 26 3October

10 17 24 31November

7 14

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Page 5: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 5 Home

Scrip Name Support Levels Close Resistance LevelsAction

S2 S1 (Rs) R1 R2

NIFTY Futures 8485.0 8605.0 8,669.10 8748.0 8837.8 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

Bank Nifty Futures 19245.0 19450.0 19,650.00 19800.0 20045.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

Axis Bank 475.0 482.0 486.90 491.0 498.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

BHEL 135.5 137.5 138.95 140.5 142.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

BPCL 650.0 663.0 669.05 675.0 690.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

INFOSYS 970.0 990.0 997.50 1008.0 1030.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

ICICI Bank 270.0 274.0 276.85 280.0 285.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

LIC Housing 565.0 577.0 582.75 588.0 600.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

LNT 1440.0 1465.0 1,480.70 1495.0 1515.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

Reliance Industries 1025.0 1045.0 1,054.95 1066.0 1080.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

SBI 252.0 256.0 258.00 260.0 264.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

SunPharma 725 735 743.40 750 760 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

Tata Motors 525.0 534.0 537.00 542.0 550.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

Yes Bank 1245.0 1260.0 1,272.30 1285.0 1300.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

TISCO 392.0 401.0 405.45 409.0 418.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

TCS 2330.0 2370.0 2,398.70 2421.0 2476.0 Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1

Day Trader’s Hit List

For November 01, 2016

*Note: Closing price of Nifty futures is last traded price of Nifty futures on NSESL=Stoploss

Page 6: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 6 Home

Muhurat PicksLight up your Diwali with these sparkling stocks

Sunil Hitech Engineers (Sector: Industrial Machinery)

Monthly Chart

2011 A M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S O N D 2013 A M J A S O N D 2014 A M J A S O N D 2015 A M J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O D 2017 A M J J A S

0

50MACD (33.3608)

1000020000300004000050000

x100

Volume (4,841,830)

100

200

300

400

500

600

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

^

_

SUNIL HITECH ENGINEERS (280.000, 468.650, 280.000, 437.200, +160.150)

The stock has taken off from its previous swing high on a primary degree, which means a fresh bull run has started. The move from the lows of August 2013 till August 2015 ie from 35.20 till 352 was clearly an impulse move ie a five-wave rising structure that is marked as Wave 1. Following Wave 1, the stock retraced in a triple zig-zag corrective pattern ie W-X-Y-X-Z. It retraced exactly 61.8% of its previous Wave 1. Moreover, it also reversed from its 51-DEMA (Daily Exponential Moving Average). The momentum indicator MACD has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. The MACD reversing from the zero line indicates that the stock has completed its downtrend and a fresh uptrend has resumed. The volumes speak for themselves as there has been an incremental rise in volumes, which qualifies this breakout as a price-volume breakout. Therefore, the probability of an upside increases with the same. On the daily chart, the stock has recently formed a “Bullish Hammer” candlestick pattern, which is a good reversal sign and the low of the same is 380, which will act as a very crucial support going forward. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 650, which is ~38.2% of Wave 1. Thereafter, the target is 850, which is 50% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying Sunil Hitech Engineers for targets of 650 and 850 with a Stop Loss below the swing low of the Hammer ie at 375 on a closing basis.

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

Sunil Hitech Engineers Buy 424.35 650 850 375 1:4.57 1:8.65

Page 7: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 7 Home

Thomas Cook (India) (Sector: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines)

Weekly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward

Thomas Cook Buy 216.65 390 165 1:3.35

The stock has given a breakout from the Downward Sloping Trendline with increasing volume. Interestingly, the stock had been falling on lower volume prior to the breakout. The conservative counts for Thomas Cook (India) say that the stock has completed Wave (A) and Wave (B), and Wave (5) of (C) has possibly started. In Wave (C), Wave (2) retraced 61.8% of Wave (1). Wave (3) was extended and was more than 261.8% of Wave (1). Wave (4) has retraced 38.2% of Wave (3). As per the Elliot Wave Theory, Wave (5) is usually equal to Wave (1). Considering that, the target for Thomas Cook (India) comes to 390. Weekly MACD has given a positive crossover, which has bullish implications. The stock has taken support at 50-WMA and has started rising. Given that the stock has formed an impulse from 165, we recommend buying the stock for a target of 390 with a Stop Loss of 165 (closing basis).

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

500010000150002000025000300003500040000450005000055000

x1000

Volume (1,079,377)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

(A)/(I)

(B)/(II)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

THOMAS COOK (I) (214.000, 222.000, 213.000, 216.650, +1.79999)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20MACD (3.54001)

IFB Industries (Sector: Household appliances)

The stock has recently provided a break-out from the falling trendline resistance. Hence, the correction seems to be over. The move from the lows of 38.65 to 700 was clearly an impulse ie a five-wave rising structure, which is marked as Wave (III). The retracement was 61.8% of its previous move, which is the characteristic of Wave 2 but on a conservative side it is considered as Wave 4 of 3. The momentum indicator has also confirmed an upward breakout. The momentum indicator KST has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 933, which is ~23.6% of Wave 1. Thereafter the target comes to 1321, which is 38.2% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying IFB Industries for targets of 933 and 1321 with a Stop Loss below 362 on a closing basis.

Monthly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

IFB Industries Buy 526.45 933 1,321 362 1:2.47 1:4.83

Page 8: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 8 Home

Suven Life Sciences (Sector: Pharmaceuticals)

Weekly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

Suven Life Sciences Buy 190 338 460 144 1:3.21 1:5.87

Greaves Cotton (Sector: Industrial Machinery)

Quarterly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

Greaves Cotton Buy 137.65 218 335 103.6 1:2.36 1:4.00

The stock has completed its corrective mode where it formed a diamond pattern and is on the verge of a breakout. The previous move from the lows of August 2013 till January 2015 ie from 54.15 till 159.4 was clearly an impulse move ie a five-wave rising structure that is marked as wave (I) of (III). Following Wave 1, the stock retraced exactly 38.20% of its previous Wave 1. The momentum indicator KST has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. The KST reversing from the zero line indicates that the stock has completed its downtrend and a fresh uptrend has resumed. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 218, which is ~38.2% of Wave 1 and thereafter 355, which is 61.8% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying Greaves Cotton for the targets of 218 and 335 with a Stop Loss below the swing low ie 103.6 on a closing basis.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

x1000

Volume (1,084,117)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

(A)/(I)

(B)/(II)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

SUVEN LIFE SCIENCES (200.000, 204.000, 188.800, 190.000, -9.35001)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30MACD (-3.99195)

The stock made a top of 338 in April 2015 but after that it entered a corrective phase. Interestingly, the stock has given an impulse from 144, indicating that the stock has completed the correction phase and is now ready to rise. In 2009, the stock had formed a leading diagonal, which should ideally be marked as Wave (I) but to be on a conservative side, we are assuming it to be Wave (A). The stock completed Wave (A) & (B) wherein Wave (B) retraced ~90% of Wave (A). Currently, we are in Wave (5) of Wave (C) or (III). In Wave (C) or (III), Wave (2) had retraced 50% of Wave (1). Wave (3) was an extended wave and was more than 423.6% of Wave (1). Wave (4) has retraced ~61.8% of Wave (3) and post that, the stock has formed an impulse wave. The weekly momentum indicator is in ‘buy’ mode, which has bullish implications. Also, the impulse move from 144 has come on the back of good volume. Given that Wave (5) generally travels beyond the high of Wave (3), we have an initial target of 338.50 [High of Wave (3)]. However, Wave (5) is generally equal to Wave (1). Therefore, our final target is 460. The Stop Loss (SL) shall be placed at 144, which is the lowest point of the recent impulse move.

Page 9: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

Eagle Eye Equities November 01, 2016For Private Circulation only 9 Home

RCF (Sector – Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals)

Weekly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward

RCF Buy 48.70 100 35 1:3.6

The stock has seen an impulse move from the bottom of 25. The impulse move can be marked as Wave (I) or (A). The stock has then seen a sharp correction and has retraced 78.6% of the previous rally from 25 to 75. The fall from 75 has been corrective in nature and can be labeled as Wave (II) or (B). The fall has been on thin volumes. However, there was an expansion in volume in the recent upmove ie from the low of 35. The ascent from 35 is possibly the start of Wave (C) or (III), wherein the stock has formed a leading diagonal in Wave (1) of Wave (C) or (III), which has five waves in it. Also, the stock is forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, wherein a break above 54 (neckline) will confirm the bullish pattern. The stock will gain momentum once it breaks the neckline. The weekly KST has turned positive. The equality target of the previous upmove comes to 100. Hence, we recommend buying the stock for the target of 100 and the Stop Loss shall be placed at 35 (closing basis).

Dec 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

x1000

Volume (6,930,558)

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

78.6%

100.0%

RASHTRIYA CHEM (48.4500, 50.8000, 47.9000, 48.4000, +0.25000)

-20-10

010203040506070KST (-0.29497)

PTC India Financial Services (Sector: Financial Services)

Weekly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

PTC India Finance Buy 38.45 76 106 29.7 1:4.29 1:7.72

The stock in its previous move from the lows of August 2013 till August 2015 ie from 10.7 till 73.15 was clearly an impulse move ie a five-wave rising structure that is marked as Wave 1. After that, it entered a correction mode. The retracement was 61.8% of the previous move, which is generally the characteristic of Wave 2. As per the Elliott Wave Theory, from here on, the next set of impulse is expected to form on upside with the stock breaking out from Triangle as well as multi-month channelised correction. The momentum indicator KST has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. The KST reversing from the zero line indicates that the stock has completed its downtrend and a fresh uptrend has resumed. It is also taking support at 20WSMA & 40WEMA. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 76, which is ~23.6% of Wave 1. Thereafter, the target is 106, which is 38.2% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying PTC India Financial for targets of 76 and 106 with a Stop Loss below the swing low ie at 29.7 on a closing basis.

Page 10: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

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Cera Sanitaryware: (Sector – Construction)

Weekly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward

Cera Sanitaryware BUY 2561 8800 2100 1:13.5

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward

Corporation Bank BUY 41.50 135 31 1:8.90

The stock is forming a multi-year impulse on the upside. In February 2016 the stock had completed the fourth wave correction that found support near the lower end of the reverse rising channel, which is a long-term channel. Since then the stock has started the fifth leg of the rally. Over the last few months it has formed a multi-month bullish flag pattern, which has broken out on the upside recently. The monthly momentum indicator has completed its correction cycle and given a fresh buy signal.

Corporation Bank (Sector – Banks (Public sector))

Weekly ChartThe stock has witnessed a multi-year correction, which has unfolded in a channelised manner. In terms of wave structure it has formed a complex correction, which got over near the 2009 low, ie Rs31. From there the stock started a fresh rally and formed a leading diagonal to begin with. Thus, it has the potential to form a multi-year double bottom pattern, which is bullish. The monthly momentum indicator has triggered a bullish cross-over.

2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

35004000

1

2

3

4

CERA SANITARYWARE (2,400.00, 2,718.70, 2,351.00, 2,586.50, +206.650)

0

50

100

150KST (21.4320)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170180190

w

x

y

x

z

1

CORPORATION BANK (42.9000, 44.5000, 40.4000, 42.2500, +0.05000)

0

50

KST (-5.43236)

Page 11: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

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Aarti Drugs (Sector: Pharmaceuticals)

Monthly ChartAarti Drugs has provided a clear break-out from the falling trend line with an increase in its volumes as well as a buy cross-over in its MACD with a strong positive divergence on its weekly charts. This is quite positive for bulls going ahead. On the monthly charts the MACD is showing signs of a reversal from the zero reference line On the quarterly charts, there’s a high probability that with this price volume break-out the wave V up for wave 3 has started. Hence, the minimum target comes to Rs875, which is the previous swing high, and Rs1,492, which is the wave I equality target for wave V.

Schneider Electric infra (Sector: Industrial Manufacturing)

Monthly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

Schneider Electric infra BUY 157.5 243 293 125 1:2.63 1:4.17

Schneider has provided a break-out from the symmetrical triangle formed in its wave Z, which is the last wave on the downside. Once the wave Z gets over on the downside, the probability of a bottom increases and this has happened in the case of Schneider. Hence, the probability of a bottom in Schneider is quite high. The stock has also provided a break-out from the downtrend line resistance and taken off its previous swing high, thereby violating the lower-top-lower-bottom series. The rise prior to the fall was clearly an impulse formation, ie a five-wave rise, following which we have seen the retracement of the same, ie exactly 61.8% retracement of the previous rise. Hence, the probability of wave 2/B getting over is quite high. Now, the minimum target in the medium term comes Rs242 whereas Rs559 is the quality target of it, ie wave 1 = wave 3. On the lower side, Rs126 seems to be a rock bottom for the stock. The momentum indicator MACD has provided a buy cross-over on the weekly and daily charts. On the monthly charts it still has to provide a buy cross-over, though it’s showing signs of a reversal from the zero reference line.

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

Aarti Drugs BUY 657 875 1492 509 1:1.47 1:5.64

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

50

100

MACD (48.5999)

500

1000

1500

2000

(1)

(2)

1

2

3

4

5AAARTI DRUGS (627.000, 686.450, 624.000, 654.400, +33.4500)

2012 J J A S O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 A M J J A S O N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A SVolume (4,690,187)

05

1015202530MACD (1.16237)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

^

_

SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC INFRASTRUCTURE (137.900, 169.850, 137.900, 156.850, +19.3500)

Page 12: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

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Monsanto (Sector: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals)

Quarterly ChartThe stock has been trending in an Upward Sloping Parallel Channel, which clearly indicates that the larger trend is up. The stock has been forming impulse waves ie a five-wave rising structure in the past, which increases the probability of a medium to long term uptrend. Recently, the stock has provided a breakout from the downtrend line resistance after retracing between 61.8% of the entire rise from 560 to 3755. So, the probability of a Wave 3 of (3) has increased, which is one of the strongest waves of all. The stock has also taken support at its crucial moving average and has reversed from the same, which is again quite positive for the medium to long term. The momentum indicator MACD is well in ‘buy’ mode on the quarterly charts. On the monthly charts, it is reversing from the zero reference line. The volumes too have increased on the downtrend line breakout, which qualifies this as a price-volume breakout. So, the probability of Wave 3 of (3) has increased based on the above mentioned technical evidences. Hence, we recommend buying Monsanto India for targets of 5160 and 9788 with a Stop Loss below its Wave 1 ie at 1519 on a closing basis.

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

Monsanto India Buy 2343.40 5160 9788 1519 1:3.41 1:9.03

Credit Analysis & Research (CARE) (Sector: Financial services)

In its previous rally, the stock had formed an impulse. It retraced exactly 61.8% of its previous Wave 1. The stock has formed an impulse from the end of Wave 2 and is currently in Wave 3 of 3.The Bullish Development in price action has been accompanied by a ‘buy’ signal in the weekly momentum indicator. 20WSMA and 40WEMA are acting as support on downside and any correction in price can be seen as a buying opportunity. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 2195, which is ~78.6% of Wave 1 and thereafter 2700, which is 88.6% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying CARE for the targets of 2195 and 2700 with a Stop Loss below the swing high ie at 1149 on a closing basis.

Weekly Chart

Stock Action CMP (Rs)

Target (1) (Rs)

Target (2) (Rs) Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Risk Reward (2)

Care Ratings Buy 1,448 2,195 2,700 1,149 1:2.5 1:4.18

Page 13: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

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Sectorial synopsis of Diwali picks

Portfolio Risk Reward

Financial Services

Household Appliances

Industrial Machinery

Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Pharmaceuticals

Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Construction

Industrial Manufacturing

CMP Target 1 Target 2 Stop Loss

Risk Reward (1) Reward (2)

Risk/Reward

(1)

Risk/Reward

(2)

RCF 48.7 100 - 35 13.7 51.3 - 1:3.7 -

Thomas Cook 216.65 390 - 165 51.65 173.35 - 1:3.4 -

Suven Life Science 190 338 460 144 46 148 270 1:3.2 1:5.9

Cera 2,561.00 8,800.00 - 2,100 461 6,239.00 - 1:13.5 -

Corp Bank 41.5 135 -- 31 10.5 93.5 - 1:8.9 -

PTC India Finace 38.45 76 29.7 8.75 37.55 - 1:4.3 -

IFB Inds 526.45 933 1321 362 164.45 406.55 794.55 1:2.5 1:4.8

Greaves Cotton 137.65 218.00 335 103.60 34.05 80.35 136.35 1:2.35 1:4.00

Sunil Hi-tech Engineers

424.35 650 850 375 49.35 225.65 425.65 1:4.6 1:8.6

Monsanto India 2,343.40 5,160.00 9788 1,519 824.4 2,816.60 7,444.60 1:3.4 1:9.0

CARE Rating 1,448.00 2,195.00 2700 1,149 299 747 1,252.00 1:2.5 1:4.2

Aarti Drugs 657 875 1492 509 148 218 835 1:1.5 1:5.6

Schneider Electric infra

157.5 243 293 125 32.5 85.5 135.5 1:2.6 1:4.2

TOTAL - - - - 2,134.35 11,318.35 11,293.65 1:5.3 1:7.1

The total risk and reward that is generated is based on the assumption that the investor invests in all the 13 stocks equally or exposure to all the 13 scrips is equally weighted.

Page 14: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

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Last Diwali Synopsis

Stock RECO Reco

PriceAction Target Exit

Price /CMP

Returns 52 Wk High

Returns Re-vised SL

Rane Brake Buy 328.70 Book Profit 643.0 643.0 95.6% - - -

Bannariaman Sugars Buy 1,002.65 Book profit 2,723.0 1,945.0 94.0% - - -

Lumax Auto Technologies Buy 300.45 Stoploss Revised 1,300.0 530.0 76.4% 544.0 81.1% 419.0

Trigyn Technologies Buy 69.90 Stoploss Revised 270.0 115.5 65.2% 140.6 101.1% 100.5

Welspun Buy 742.00 Book Profit 1,185.0 1,185.0 59.7% - - -

Nitin Fire Buy 41.00 Stoploss Triggered 68.0 35.0 -14.6%

Rajesh Exports Buy 718.00 Stoploss Triggered 1,100.0 603.0 -16.0%

Page 15: Morning star - Sharekhane... · 2016-10-28 · A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 01, 2016 Punter’s Call Morning star Nifty daily: 8,638 Market breadth BSE NSE

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