Upload
nguyentram
View
216
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
FROM EQUITY RESEARCH
KAEF: Weak 4Q15 results (KAEF IJ. Rp 1,280. HOLD. TP Rp1,130) Kimia Farma (KAEF) posted poor 4Q15 performance with the net income down 1% qoq to Rp85bn. Nonetheless, the FY15 net profit of Rp249bn is within our expectation yet below the consensus. At the topline, revenues were flat in 4Q15, only up 1.5% qoq owing to lower sales of its own products. The gross margin, however, expanded to 33.4% from 31.8% in 3Q15. The operating profit was down 16.2% qoq to Rp101bn in 4Q15 due to higher opex. All in all, the figures are inline with our expectations. KAEF is currently trading at 25.1x FY16F P/E, a 6.4% discount to KLBF. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of Rp1,130.
ADRO: 4Q15: Weak results (ADRO IJ. Rp 740. BUY. TP Rp750) Adaro Energy (ADRO) reported net profit of US$152mn in 2015 (-14% yoy). While revenue was within our expectation, the net profit was below our expectation mainly attributable to a) impairment charges of US$65mn of investment in associates and b) higher effective tax rate. Following the impairment charges booked in 4Q15 as well as lower sales volume and ASP, ADRO reported a net loss of US$28mn in 4Q15 vs. a profit of US$61mn in 3Q15. We are reviewing our target price to incorporate latest financial figures.
FROM DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
February Outlook: Slight Improvement
Exports and imports value slumped in early 2016. In January 2016, exports and imports reached US$ 10.5 bn (-11.9% mom, -20.7% yoy) and US$ 10.4 bn (-13.5% mom, -17.1% yoy), respectively.
MARKET NEWS
*Analysts’ comment inside
ADHI might own 25% of Kanci-Pejagan (BI)* 4W sales grew 4% (ID) GIAA targeting efficiency of US$ 250m (BI) Implementing ERP, PTPN to spur efficiency (ID) PTBA and Ignite Energy to explore expansion of USD 180 million (ID) ROTI seek 20% sales growth (ID)
Previous Reports:
BSDE: Operationally inline, KAEF: Operationally Weak in 4Q-Snapshot20160314
PTPP: Net profit surge on higher margin, BSDE: Operationally inline-Snapshot20160312
IDX ANNOUNCEMENT Corp Action
Code Action Date Time (WIB)
BINA EGM 22-Mar-16 14
JASS AGM 24-Mar-16 10
Source: KSEI
MORNING HIGHLIGHT
Key Index
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 4,878 1.3 6.2 350
Thailand 1,394 0.1 8.2 1,368
Philippines 7,113 0.2 2.3 165
Malaysia 1,700 0.2 0.5 426
Singapore 2,847 0.6 (1.2) 698
Regional
China 2,859 1.8 (19.2) 27,072
Hong Kong 20,435 1.2 (6.7) 9,398
Japan 17,234 1.7 (9.5) 11,441
Korea 1,972 0.0 0.6 3,541
Taiwan 8,748 0.5 4.9 3,053
India 24,804 0.3 (5.0) 634
NASDAQ 4,750 0.0 (5.1) 57,741
Dow Jones 17,229 0.1 (1.1) 7,520
Currency and Interest Rate
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,063 1.0 2.3 5.7
SBI rate % 6.65 (0.4) (0.5) (0.6)
10y Gov Indo bond 7.74 (0.1) (0.2) (1.0)
Hard Commodities
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 52 0.9 2.5 2.7
Gold US$/toz 1,237 0.1 2.3 16.5
Nickel US$/mt.ton 8,798 0.8 16.3 0.2
Tin US$/mt.ton 16,802 0.6 7.4 15.2
Soft Commodities
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 3,120 0.0 9.1 (4.5)
Corn US$/mt.ton 140 0.6 3.2 4.4
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 37 0.3 26.7 0.7
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 40 (2.1) 18.5 6.0
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,502 0.9 3.3 13.7
Rubber US$/mt ton 124 (0.6) 17.1 5.3
Pulp US$/tonne 789 N/A (0.5) (1.7)
Coffee US$/60kgbag 94 0.1 (12.3) (7.0)
Sugar US$/MT 439 1.2 14.6 3.9
Wheat US$/ton 130 0.6 3.5 0.5
Source: Bloomberg
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team
Sales team
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5831 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip., Metal, Cement
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5817 Pharmaceutical, Construction
Armando Marulitua
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5820 Property, Retail
Anindya Saraswati
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5824 Consumer
Puti Adani
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Cement
Antonia Febe Hartono
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151
Ermawati A. Erman [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128
Novrita E. Putrianti [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
Ehrliech Suhartono
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145
Yunita L. Nababan
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3125
Laksmita Armandani
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3109
Muhammad Hardiansyah
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3121
Tuty Sutopo
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3139
Kevin Giarto
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco
Natalia Sutanto
Tuesday, 15 March 2016
Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Armando Marulitua (62-21) 2955 5817 [email protected]
HEALTHCARE/FY15 RESULT
Kimia Farma Weak 4Q15 results Kimia Farma (KAEF) posted poor 4Q15 performance with the net income down 1% qoq to Rp85bn. Nonetheless, the FY15 net profit of Rp249bn is within our expectation yet below the consensus. At the topline, revenues were flat in 4Q15, only up 1.5% qoq owing to lower sales of its own products. The gross margin, however, expanded to 33.4% from 31.8% in 3Q15. The operating profit was down 16.2% qoq to Rp101bn in 4Q15 due to higher opex. All in all, the figures are inline with our expectations. KAEF is currently trading at 25.1x FY16F P/E, a 6.4% discount to KLBF. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of Rp1,130.
Weak top line in 4Q15 KAEF booked Rp1.38tn of sales in 4Q15, up just 1.5% qoq but down 4% yoy. This owed to lower sales of entity products, -9.9% qoq, despite improving sales of third party products, +8.8% qoq. In the product mix, generic drugs sales fell 19.3% qoq to Rp345bn, attributable to lower generic drugs sales of entity products (-36.1% qoq). Ethical drugs sales were down 12.7% qoq, attributable to weak sales of third party products despite solid sales of its own products (+68.4% qoq). Meanwhile, sales of OTC products jumped 50.4% qoq/17% yoy to Rp335bn, indicating good retail business performance in 4Q15. KAEF’s sales in FY15 of Rp4.86tn, +7.5% yoy, were within our expectation, yet still below the consensus estimates.
Net profit within our expectation KAEF managed to record a higher gross margin in 4Q15 of 33.4% compared to 31.8% in 3Q15, thanks to better cost management, higher sales growth of ethical and licensed products and a solid sales contribution from its own products. Nonetheless, KAEF’s operating expenses jumped 15% qoq/17% yoy in 4Q15, translating into a higher opex to sales ratio of 26.2% (vs. 23% in 3Q15). As such, the operating profits posted a decline (-16.2% qoq and -26% yoy) to Rp101bn in 4Q15. At the bottom line, KAEF recorded net profits of Rp85bn, -1% qoq and -23.4% yoy in 4Q15. On a cumulative basis, KAEF booked net profits of Rp249bn (-2.8% yoy) in the full year, reaching 97% of our FY15F. Note that KAEF restated its FY14 financial statement and this resulted in higher net profits of Rp256bn (vs. Rp235bn previously).
The balance sheet remains healthy KAEF returned to net cash in December 2015 (vs. 13% gearing in September 2015) thanks to lower interest bearing debt. In 2015, KAEF added 88 pharmacies and 48 clinics, lifting the total number to 705 and 301 outlets respectively. The strong presence of its pharmacies is important for KAEF since sales from these outlets make up a large part of its products sold through its retail chain. In 2016, KAEF is targeting to add 100 pharmacies and 50 clinics.
Year end Dec (Rp bn) 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Sales (Rp bn) 4,521 4,860 5,784 6,719 8,011
EBITDA (Rp bn) 353 358 466 538 682
EBITDA growth (%) 14.5 1.3 30.2 12.5 28.9
Net profit (Rp bn) 256 249 286 302 370
Core profit (Rp bn) 226 236 259 274 347
EPS (Rp) 46.1 44.8 51.6 54.6 66.7
EPS growth (%) 19.3 (2.8) 15.2 5.8 22.1
Net Gearing (%) net cash net cash 19.9 33.9 30.9 PER (x) 28.1 28.9 25.1 23.7 19.4 PBV (x) 4.2 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.0 19.7 15.4 13.4 10.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
HOLD Target Price, Rp 1,130
Upside (Downside) (12.7%)
KAEF IJ/KAEF.JK
Last Price, Rp 1,295
No. of shares (bn) 5,471
Market Cap, Rp bn 7,192 (US$ mn) 549
3M T/O, US$mn 0.24
Last Recommendation
02-Feb-16 HOLD Rp1,130
30-Oct-15 BUY Rp1,200
29-Sep-15 BUY Rp1,200
FY15 Result, A/F, %(Inline)
FY15, Rp bn A/F, %
Net Sales 4,860 96
Operating profit 310 92
Net profit 249 97
Key chart: Sales mix
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Our Cons % Diff
Target Price, IDR 1,130 1,252 -9.0
EPS 2016F, IDR 51.6 52.0 -0.8
PE 2016F, x 25.1 25.1 0.8
32.8%
30.6% 31.6%
39.0%
34.6%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
Third party's product Entity's products
Gross margin (RHS)
15 March 2016 Kimia Farma
2
Exhibit 1. KAEF FY15 Result
Source: Company
Exhibit 4. Higher proportion of own product led to a better margin Exhibit 5. KAEF Product Mix in FY15
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Revenues seasonality pattern Exhibit 3. Net income seasonality pattern
Source: Company
FY14 FY15 % chg 4Q14 3Q15 4Q15 % chg % chg 2015F %A/F
(Rp bn) (Rp bn) yoy (Rp bn) (Rp bn) (Rp bn) qoq yoy (Rp bn)
Revenue 4,521 4,860 7.5 1,443 1,366 1,386 1.5 (4.0) 5,060 96
COGS 3,136 3,324 6.0 998 931 923 (0.9) (7.5) 3,498 95
Gross profit 1,385 1,537 10.9 445 435 463 6.6 4.0 1,562 98
Opex 1,071 1,227 14.5 309 314 363 15.3 17.2 1,224 100
Operating profit 314 310 (1.4) 136 120 101 (16.2) (26.0) 338 92
Other Income 30 28 (5.1) 7 (5) 11 n.m. 61.1 8 364
Pretax profit 344 338 (1.7) 143 115 112 (2.8) (21.7) 346 98
Net profit 256 249 (2.8) 112 86 85 (1.0) (23.9) 258 97
Margin (%)
Gross margin 30.6 31.6 30.9 31.8 33.4 30.9
Operating margin 6.9 6.4 9.4 8.8 7.3 6.7
Net margin 5.7 5.1 7.8 6.3 6.2 5.1
Opex to sales 23.7 25.2 21.4 23.0 26.2 24.2
Segment
Manufacture 1,289 1,466 22.2 410 478 391 (18.2) (4.6) 1,399 105
Distribution 1,935 1,981 16.9 772 634 621 (2.0) (19.5) 2,145 92
Retail 2,434 2,680 9.7 630 689 700 1.7 11.2 2,723 98
Others 66 90 26.0 15 19 27 42.9 75.4 101 89
Elimination (1,203) (1,357) 22.5 (384) (454) (353) (22.2) (7.9) (1,307) 104
Total Revenue 4,521 4,860 12.9 1,443 1,366 1,386 1.5 (4.0) 5,060 96
Product mix
Generic medicines 859 1,063 37.2 335 427 345 (19.3) 3.0 887 120
Ethical & licensed 2,314 2,286 3.9 614 595 520 (12.7) (15.3) 2,666 86
Over the counter (OTC) 888 994 9.5 286 222 335 50.4 17.0 968 103
Raw materials 157 212 29.8 48 48 70 45.3 47.2 204 104
Pills and health equip 303 305 32.1 161 72 117 61.1 (27.4) 335 91
Tuesday, 15 March 2016
COAL/COMPANY RESULT
Adaro Energy 4Q15: Weak results Adaro Energy (ADRO) reported net profits of US$152mn in 2015 (-14% yoy). This was below our expectation, mainly due to: a) impairment charges of US$65mn for investments in associates and b) a higher effective tax rate. As a result of the impairment charges booked in 4Q15 in addition to lower sales volume and weaker ASP, ADRO reported a net loss of US$28mn in 4Q15 compared to net profits of US$61mn in 3Q15. We are reassessing our target price to incorporate the latest financial figures. 4Q15: Net loss on weak operational performance and impairment charges ADRO posted a net loss of US$28mn in 4Q15 compared to net profits of U$61mn in 3Q15. This mainly reflects: a) 18% qoq lower coal sales volume of 11.9mn tons in 4Q15, b) lower ASP, and c) impairment charges of US$65mn for investments in associates booked in 4Q15. With ADRO managing to lower its cash cost of production slightly to US$28/ton in 4Q15 from US$28.7/ton in 3Q15 thanks to a lower stripping ratio of 4.5x in 4Q15 (5.5x in 3Q15) coupled with low crude oil prices, this helped cushion the company against further declines in net profits. As a result, its gross margin declined slightly to 18.6% in 4Q15 from 19.3% in 3Q15, while its operating margin dropped to 13.9% in 4Q15 from 15.0% in 3Q15. Weak performance on a cumulative basis On a cumulative basis, net profits dropped 14% yoy to US$152mn in 2015. This was mainly due to: a) 19% yoy lower revenues as a result of 14% yoy lower ASP of US$46.9/ton in 2015 and 7% yoy lower coal sales volume of 53.1mn tons, b) 17.5% yoy higher other expenses of US$78mn in 2015 owing to impairment losses for investments in associates amounting to U$65mn in 2015 vs. US$11mn of gains from the sale of investments in an associate in 2015 and c) a higher effective tax rate of 46% in 2015 compared to 43% in 2014. However, 15% yoy lower cash costs of production of US$28.0/ton on a decline in the stripping ratio and lower fuel costs (-38% yoy) as well as sharply lower interest expenses, prevented a further decline in net profits. Stronger balance sheet with lower gearing ADRO managed to reduce its interest bearing debts by 17% yoy to US$1,567mn in 2015. This also improved ADRI’s profitability as its interest expenses declined by 68.0% yoy to US$61mn in 2015. Hence, while its total cash declined by 6% yoy, ADRO managed to reduce its net gearing to 26% in 2015 from 35% in 2014. We expect a further decline in gearing to 12% in 2017 from 26% in FY15 to give ADRO greater flexibility in obtaining further financing whilst its profitability is expected to be maintained thanks to lower interest expenses.
2016: Coal price outlook to remain challenging As the coal price outlook remains challenging, ADRO is targeting a flat up to 5% yoy increase in its coal production to 52 – 54mn tons in 2016 from 51.5mn tons in 2015. Total cash costs (ex-Royalty) are expected to post a slight decline to US$26 – 28/ton in 2016 from US$28/ton in 2015. This will be driven by: a) further declines in crude oil prices and b) a further fall in the stripping ratio to 4.7x in 2016 from 5.2x in 2015.
2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Revenue, USD mn 3,285 3,325 2,786 2,858 3,021
EBITDA, USD mn 822 877 683 675 708
EBITDA Growth, % -27.7 6.7 -22.1 -1.2 4.9
Net profit, USD mn 234 178 167 153 168
EPS, USD 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.005
EPS growth, % -39.3 -23.9 -6.5 -8.0 9
BVPS, USD 0.084 0.086 0.089 0.091 0.094
DPS, USD 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003
Net Gearing, % 49 35 27 20 12
PER, x 7.1 8.2 7.5 8.3 7.8
PBV, x 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITDA, x 4.1 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.4
Yield, % 4.6 5.1 6.0 7.2 6.5
BUY Target Price, Rp 750
Upside 1.35%
ADRO IJ/ADRO.JK
Last Price, Rp 740
No. of shares (mn) 31,986
Market Cap, Rpbn 23,670 (US$ mn) 1,810
3M T/O, US$mn 2.0
Last Recommendation
15-Feb-16 BUY Rp750
11-Dec-15 BUY Rp750
02-Oct-15 BUY Rp900
Key Charts – Production
2015 Result, A/F, % - Below
2015, US$ mn A/F, %
Revenue 2,684 96
EBITDA 683 92
Net profit 167 92
Consensus
Our Cons % Diff
Target Price, IDR 750 642 16.8
EPS 2016F, IDR 65.4 52.3 25.0
PE 2016F, x 11.3 14.2 (20.0)
Stefanus Darmagiri (62-21) 2955 5777 ext3530 [email protected] Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.
4
6
8
10
8
10
12
14
16
1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 4Q15
x mn tons Production (LHS)
Stripping Ratio (RHS)
15 March 2016 Adaro Energy
2
Exhibit 1. 2015 net profit
Operational performance 3Q15 4Q15 qoq, % 2014 2015 yoy, % 2015F A/F, %
Coal Sales - AI Production volume, mn tons 14.0 11.6 (17) 56.2 51.5 (8) 54.0 95
Sales volume, mn tons 14.6 11.9 (18) 57.0 53.1 (7) 54.0 98
ASP, US$/ton 45.3 44.5 (2) 54.4 46.9 (14) 46.3 101
Strip ratio, bcm/ton 5.5 4.6 (16) 5.7 5.2 (9) 5.5 95
Cash cost ex royalty, US$/ton 28.7 28.0 (2) 33.0 28.0 (15) 29.9 94
Mining Services - SIS Overburden removal, mn bcm 44.0 29.0 (34) 174.0 151.1 (13) 191.3 79
Coal mined & hauled, mn tons 8.1 6.7 (18) 30.4 29.5 (3) 32.9 90
Financial performance 3Q15 4Q15 qoq, % 2014 2015 yoy, % 2015F A/F, %
Net sales, US$mn 713 572 (20) 3,325 2,684 (19) 2,786 96
COGS, US$mn (576) (466) (19) (2,606) (2,141) (18) (2,285) 94
Gross profit, US$mn 138 107 (23) 720 543 (25) 501 108
Operating profit, US$mn 107 80 (25) 557 410 (26) 345 119
EBITDA, US$mn 187 63 (66) 778 631 (19) 683 92
Pretax income 85 (3) n.a. 322 280 (13) 295 95
Net profit, US$mn 61 (28) n.a. 178 152 (14) 167 92
Gross margin, % 19.3 18.6 (0.7) 21.6 20.2 (1.4) 18.0 Operating margin, % 15.0 13.9 (1.0) 16.7 15.3 (1.5) 12.4 EBITDA margin, % 26.2 11.1 (15.1) 23.4 23.5 0.1 24.5 Net margin, % 8.5 (4.8) (13.4) 5.3 5.7 0.3 6.0
Source: Adaro Energy, Danareksa Sekuritas
TRADE OUTLOOK
MONTHLY REPORT
∂Ri/1234/to/2016
March 2016
∂Ri D A N A R E K S A R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E
Exports and imports value slumped in early 2016. In January 2016, exports andimports reached US$ 10.5 bn (-11.9% mom, -20.7% yoy) and US$ 10.4 bn (-13.5%mom, -17.1% yoy), respectively. As a result, Indonesia still posted a trade surplusof US$ 50.6 mn, albeit less than the US$ 632.6 mn surplus recorded in January lastyear.
Indonesia’s non oil and gas exports were 11.5 percent MoM lower in January,dragged down by lower average prices (-1.2% MoM) and lower volume shipments(-10.4% MoM). Exports of the top three major non oil and gas products saw mixedperformance on a monthly comparison: exports of animal and vegetable fats (HS 15)and mineral fuel (HS 27) dropped by 20.1% and 7.8%, respectively, whereas exportsof jewelry (HS 71) soared by 50%. By destination, monthly non oil and gas exportsto the U.S. (-7.0%), China (-27.7%), and Japan (-11.8%) all posted declines.
A decline in non oil and gas imports was driven by lower volume shipments (-18.8%mom) since average prices still rose 10.6% mom. The value of main non oil and gasimport products declined: imports of mechanical machine/tools (HS 84), electricmachine/tools (HS 85), and iron/steel (HS 72) dropped by 10.6%, 19.7%, and19.9% mom, respectively. By country of origin, imports of non oil and gas productsfrom China (-10.4% mom), Japan (-9.1% mom), and Thailand (-4.3% mom) all fell.
By classification of use, imports of consumption goods rose 5.1 percent, whileimports of raw materials and capital goods declined by 14.0 percent and 20.4percent, respectively.
The latest economic data suggests that the economies of Indonesia’s major tradingpartners –China and Japan - remain sluggish, while the U.S. grew at a moderatepace. Demand is predicted to remain weak. On a more positive note, the averageprices of Indonesia’s major commodity exports strengthened (+3.8% mom) withglobal oil prices rebounding (+2.8% mom). As such, Indonesia’s exports are likelyto enjoy a slight increase going forward.
In the US, the latest CEI and LEI indicate that the U.S. economy is undergoing modestexpansion. Nonetheless, the current manufacturing indicator suggests that businessgrowth has been reined in by sluggish exports demand, lower new orders, and astrong US dollar. Inflation, meanwhile, increased on the back of higher prices ofservices, although food and energy prices are still low. On the domestic demandfront, retail sales - including auto sales - picked up. Furthermore, consumersentiment toward economic prospects was stable - fueled by strong labor marketconditions.
China’s economy is in a soft patch. The PMI indicator has continued to fall,indicating that China’s manufacturing activity still contracted due to weak neworders and sluggish global demand. On the monetary side, the PBOC cut the reserverequirement ratio by 50 basis points for all banks, taking the ratio to 17 percentfor the country’s biggest lenders. This move by the PBOC is intended to supporteconomic growth by increasing the lending ability of commercial banks. On thedomestic demand front, spending looks to be stable since retail sales and inflationare increasing. Inflation also rose. This reflects much higher food prices during theChinese New Year.
February Outlook: Slight Improvement
Forecast for February 2016
Exports US$ 10.6 bn
Imports US$ 10.3 bn
Trade Surplus US$ 305.2 mn
Forecast for 2016
Exports US$ 148.5 bn
Imports US$ 147.2 bn
Trade balance US$ 1.3 bn
DAMHURI NASUTION
Head of Economic Research
(62-21) 29555777/ 888 ext 3603
HANDRI THIONO
Economist
(62-21) 29555777/ 888 ext 3606
www.danareksa-research.com
TRADE OUTLOOK
2∂Ri DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Indonesia’s Exports and Imports
Source: BPS
The Japanese economy isn’t showing a significant improvement. GDP fell 1.4 percent in Q4 2015 in contrastto Q3’s 1.3 percent rise. The manufacturing sector also grew at a slower pace, held back by the strong yen andweak global demand. On the monetary side, the Bank of Japan has adopted negative interest rates, resultingin an interest rate of -0.1 percent in one of three tiers of current accounts held by financial funds at the centralbank. On the domestic demand front, retail sales contracted and consumer prices stayed at low levels. Food priceseased while energy and transportation costs dropped further.
In Indonesia, the latest CEI and LEI suggest improvements are taking place. Low consumer prices have helpedboost consumer confidence. And on the monetary side, Bank Indonesia has continued to lower its benchmarkrate to 7.0 percent, with the Lending Facility and the Deposit Facility rate cut to 7.5 percent and 5.0 percent,respectively. At the same time, BI also cut the Rupiah RRR by 1 percent to 6.5 percent. Also encouragingly, therupiah has been one of the region’s best performing currencies. In February, the average USD/IDR ratestrengthened by 2.8 percent mom. Looking ahead, further interest rate cuts would bolster domestic demandgrowth, which, in turn, would lead to higher imports.
In view of the latest developments, we expect Indonesia’s exports to reach US$ 10.6 bn in February 2016, withimports reaching US$ 10.3 bn. This will translate into a trade surplus of US$ 305.2 mn in February 2016.
(3,000)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Feb-
13
Apr-1
3
Jun-
13
Aug-
13
Oct-1
3
Dec-1
3
Feb-
14
Apr-1
4
Jun-
14
Aug-
14
Oct-1
4
Dec-1
4
Feb-
15
Apr-1
5
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct-1
5
Dec-1
5
US$ Bn
Trade Balance (RHS)-US$ Mn
Total Export-LHS
Total Import-LHS
2016 Full Year Exports
Source: BPS, Danareksa Research Institute
11.2 7.3 11.6 14.6 15.6 15.4 14.5 13.2 10.5
137.1
116.5
157.8
203.5190.0
182.6176.3
150.3 148.5
.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US$ Bn
Jan-Jan (US$ Bn) Jan-Dec (US$ Bn)
TRADE OUTLOOK
3∂Ri DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
2016 Full Year Imports
Source: BPS, Danareksa Research Institute
YoY Change in Imports
Source: BPS
4.4 5.3 9.6 6.6 9.5 12.6 14.6 15.5 14.9 12.6 10.4
61.1
74.5
128.9
96.8
135.7
177.3
191.7 186.6178.2
142.7 147.2
.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US$ Bn
Jan-Jan (US$ Bn) Jan-Dec (US$ Bn)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr-13 Jul-13 Okt-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Okt-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Okt-15 Jan-16
(%YoY)
Consumer Goods
Raw Materials
Capital Goods
TRADE OUTLOOK
4∂Ri DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
TABLE 1. SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
No Country Selected Economic Indicators Period Actual Previous Description
1 China Coincident economic index (CEI) Nov 284.3 282.7 Both indicators indicate moderating growth in China’s economy over the near termLeading economic index (LEI) Nov 342.9 340.7
Retail sales MoM Dec 0.82 0.9 Aggregate sales of retail goods and services showed an upward trend. In December,Retail sales YoY Dec 11.1 11.2 sales of food had the highest gain, followed by beverage, alcoholic drink and
tobacco.
Inflation rate- MoM Jan 0.5 0.5 Prices in the food components increased 4.1 percent, while non food prices rose at aInflation rate- YoY Jan 1.8 1.6 slower rate (1.2 percent).
Benchmark lending (deposit) rate - % Feb 4.35 (1.50) 4.35 (1.50) The benchmark deposit and lending rates were lowered in October 2015. Rates werelowered for the sixth straight time since Nov 2014 in order to prevent furtherslowdown of the Chinese economy.
Official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) Feb 49 49.4 The PMI stayed below the threshold level of 50. China’s manufacturing sectoractivity is still contracting, owing to falling new exports demand and production.
2 Japan Coincident economic index (CEI) Jan 113.8 110.9 Both indicators signal continued improvement in Japan’s economy over the nearLeading economic index (LEI) Jan 101.4 101.8 term.
Consumer confidence index (CCI) Jan 42.5 42.7 Consumers were less optimistic toward their income growth prospects andemployment condition
Retail sales MoM Jan (1.1) (0.3) After expanded in March to October 2015, it slumped for three consecutive monthsRetail sales YoY Jan (0.1) (1.1) to the latest month.
Inflation rate- MoM Jan (0.4) (0.1) Consumer prices were steady on an annual basis. Price of food component rose at aInflation rate- YoY Jan 0.0 0.2 slower 1.7 percent. While prices of fuel, light and water charges dropped 6.7 percent
and cost of transportation and communication fell 2.4 percent.
Benchmark rate (%) Feb 0.1 0.1 The BOJ will increase the monetary base at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yenthrough the purchase of Japanese government bonds and other assets (exchange-traded funds, Japanese real estate investment trusts, and corporate bonds). In thelatest move, BOJ adopted negative interest rates. This policy results in an interestrate of -0.1 percent in one of three tiers of current accounts held by financial fundsat the central bank.
Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Feb 50.1 52.3 Industrial activity at Japanese manufacturers was slowing, driven by easing outputgrowth and declining new orders
Core machinery orders-MoM Dec 4.2 (14.4) The value of machinery orders received by manufacturers is 3.54 percent lower thanthe Dec 2014. Corporate capital spending over the next 6-9 months is expected toremain stable going forward.
3 U.S. Coincident economic index (CEI) Jan 113.2 112.9 Solid U.S. economic recovery and economic expansion will continueLeading economic index (LEI) Jan 123.2 123.4
Consumer confidence index (CCI) Feb 92.2 97.8 Consumer assessments of the current business condition weakened.
Retail sales MoM Jan 0.2 0.2 The highest increases were reported for sales in nonstore retailers, miscellaneousRetail sales YoY Jan 3.4 2.2 store retailers, general merchandise stores, motor vehicle & parts dealers, building
material, garden equipment & supplies dealers, and food and beverages
Inflation rate- MoM Jan 0.0 (0.1) Consumer prices rose 1.4 percent YoY, the biggest gain in 15 months. The upwardInflation rate- YoY Jan 1.4 0.7 pressure came from rising costs of services (shelter, medical care, transportation
services)
Benchmark rate-FFR (%) Feb 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50 The Federal Reserve left the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at0.25 percent to 0.5 percent during its FOMC meeting held in January 2016, followingDecember’s hike
ISM Manufacturing (PMI)-index Feb 49.5 48.2 Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector still contracted in February. Neworders, and production grew at a slower pace, while exports weakened
4 Indonesia Danareksa’s coincident econ. index (CEI) Jan 124.32 124.53 The Indonesian economy will recover going forwardDanareksa’s leading econ. index (LEI) Jan 133.18 132.53
Danareksa’s cons confidence index (CCI) Feb 98.40 98.50 Consumer confidence stable at high level, pushed up by easing concerns on higherfoodstuff prices
Inflation rate- MoM Feb (0.09) 0.51 Februari’s deflation owed to falling prices in the foodstuffs component (-0.58%Inflation rate- YoY Feb 4.42 4.14 MoM), housing component (-0.45% MoM), and transportation component (-0.15%
MoM)
Benchmark rate-BI rate (%) Feb 7.00 7.25 Easing inflationary pressures over the near term give BI more room to lower rates
Forex (average USD/IDR) Feb 13,510.3 13,887.2 Rupiah appreciated. After fell 0.30% MoM in January, the rupiah strengthened2.79% MoM in Feb 2016
Indonesia commodity price index-MoM Feb 3.88 1.76 Global prices of Indonesia’s major export commodities rose further in February 2016
Average global oil price-MoM Feb 2.88 (7.15) Global oil prices started to rebound
Danareksa Research InstituteDanareksa Building
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan 14Jakarta, 10110
INDONESIATel : (62-21) 29555 777 / 888 (hunting)
Fax : (62 21) 3501709
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems, or transmitted,in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior
written permission of Danareksa Research Institute.
DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of Danareksa Research Institute and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respectiveemployees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the informationand opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue hereof.We have no responsibility toupdate this report in respect of events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report.We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of Danareksa ResearchInstitute and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, actions, suits,losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neitherDanareksa Research Institute and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, inthis report and any liability in respect of this report or any inaccuracy herein or omission herefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expressly disclaimed.Accordingly, none of Danareksa ResearchInstitute and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents shall be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result ofrelying on any statement or omission in any information contained in this report. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific person who may receive this
RESEARCH TEAM
Damhuri Nasution Kahlil Rowter Head of Economic Research Chief Economist [email protected] [email protected]
Asti Suwarni Pramayanti MeitisariAnalyst [email protected] [email protected]
Darwin Sitorus Handri ThionoEconomist / Database Officer Junior [email protected] [email protected]
Natalia Daisyana Martin JenkinsResearch Assistant [email protected] [email protected]
Rika PantjawatiExecutive [email protected]
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
ADHI might own 25% of Kanci-Pejagan (BI)
Adhi Karya (ADHI) will acquire up to 25% stake in the concession of Kanci-Pejagan toll road, Central Java. This is equivalent to
Rp699 bn which is an accumulation of road improvement costs worth Rp515 bn and receivables amounting to Rp184 bn.
Previously, Waskita Karya (WSKT), through its subsidiary Waskita MNC Trans Java Toll Road own 99.99% ownership of the Kanci-
Pejagan road.
Comment: We are still looking for ADHI’s confirmation regarding this transaction. Pending to company’s clarification, we think
the transaction value of Rp699bn for 25% stake in Kanci-Pejagan toll road section is too expensive for ADHI given the fact that
the estimated investment value of this section is around Rp1.1tn. The acquisition value is even higher compare to the amount
paid by Waskita Toll Road to acquire the this section from MNC. However, we still maintain our positive view on ADHI banking on
its high value LRT projects. Maintain BUY. (Armando)
4W sales grew 4% (ID)
Domestic car sales grew 4% to 88,236 units in February 2016. This increase was attributable to attempt of brand holder agent
(APM) model of increasing the supply of new cars to dealers. Fortuner sales in February reached 1,928 units, up 51% mom while
sales of the all-new Pajero Sport reached 3,115 units, increase by more than ten-fold from the January sales of 214 units. The
total order is now more than 10 thousand units. Cumulatively, sales of cars still down 0.5% yoy. According to Johannes Nagoi,
chairman of the Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), market conditions in the first 3 months was more difficult than the
same period last year, therefore he estimates that sales in 1Q16 are still recorded negative growth on yoy basis.
GIAA targeting efficiency of US$ 250m (BI)
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) targeting upstream to downstream’ efficiency up to US$ 250 mn in 2016 by conducting negotiations
related to cost-efficiency in leasing, insurance, and so on. The estimated value of the efficiency for each checkpoint may reach
10-15%. GIAA will optimize the service to a number of routes and develop e-commerce for ticketing.
Implementing ERP, PTPN to spur efficiency (ID)
Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) has implemented a program supply chain management (SCM), which comes with the
application of technology Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) to boost the efficiency of business operation all business lines.
PTPP has signed an employment agreement with Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) to support the implementation of SCM
program. ERP is an application that promote integration between function and real time transaction the company to facilitate
the planning and monitoring on-going process from end to end.
PTBA and Ignite Energy to explore expansion of USD 180 million (ID)
Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam (PTBA) together with Ignite Energy Resources exploring the development of a commercial plant
to convert coal into a high-calorie low-calorie (pulverized coal injection system). The investment value is estimated at USD180
million. Director of PTBA said today PTBA through its subsidiary, Bukit Energy Investama still in the process of acquiring the
minority ownership on Ignite Energy. Both parties are waiting for conditions of rising global oil prices higher before finalizing the
acquisition. In this status quo, PTBA and Ignite has been negotiating for the commercial plant construction site. PTBA filed a
factory to be built in Indonesia.
ROTI seek 20% sales growth (ID)
Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI) is targeting sales this year to reach Rp2.6tn grew 20% yoy driven by sales volume growth. ROTI
not plan to raise prices this year. Associated with the plan to set up a JV named Sarimonde Food Corporation along with Monde
Nissin Corporation, ROTI will have a 55% stake. JV formation agreement has been signed on 18 February. ROTI will deposit funds
amounting to USD6.87 million.
MARKET NEWS
Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 2015
Danareksa Universe 2,314,023 140,575 151,185 301.8 324.6 -4% 8% 16.5 15.3 19.5 18.5 2.5 2.3 16.4
Auto 302,163 16,781 19,189 307.4 351.5 -15% 14% 18.0 15.7 12.6 11.6 2.2 2.0 12.7
Astra International HOLD 7,200 6,700 291,482 16,050 18,063 396 446 370 412 -16% 13% 18.2 16.1 13.3 12.1 2.3 2.0 40.9 34.1 12.9
Gajah Tunggal BUY 685 1,500 2,387 266 633 76 182 140 127 -1% 138% 9.0 3.8 4.5 4.4 0.4 0.3 90.5 95.0 4.4
Selamat Sempurna BUY 4,505 5,300 6,486 465 493 323 342 332 352 19% 6% 14.0 13.2 8.5 7.8 4.5 3.7 16.0 net cash 36.0
Banks 980,155 73,678 79,865 683.9 741.3 -1% 8% 13.3 12.3 2.4 2.0 19.0
BCA BUY 13,525 15,425 333,459 18,062 19,792 724 794 724 794 8% 10% 18.7 17.0 NA NA 3.7 3.1 NA NA 21.4
BNI BUY 5,325 5,850 99,304 7,506 8,596 402 461 402 461 -30% 15% 13.2 11.6 NA NA 1.5 1.4 NA NA 12.1
BRI BUY 11,175 13,400 275,678 24,352 25,863 987 1,048 987 1,048 0% 6% 11.3 10.7 NA NA 2.4 2.0 NA NA 23.0
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,695 1,450 17,945 1,588 1,964 151 187 151 187 42% 24% 11.2 9.1 NA NA 1.3 1.2 NA NA 12.4
Bank Mandiri BUY 10,175 11,450 237,417 20,144 21,413 863 918 863 918 1% 6% 11.8 11.1 NA NA 2.0 1.7 NA NA 18.2
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan BUY 2,800 4,500 16,353 2,026 2,237 347 383 347 383 8% 10% 8.1 7.3 NA NA 1.2 1.0 NA NA 15.8
Cement 142,774 9,876 9,918 508 510 -13% 0% 14.5 14.4 9.0 8.8 2.5 2.3 17.4
Indocement HOLD 20,700 21,000 76,202 4,915 4,919 1,335 1,336 1,305 1,306 -9% 0% 15.5 15.5 9.7 9.4 2.6 2.5 net cash net cash 16.9
Semen Indonesia BUY 10,575 12,300 62,726 4,608 4,648 777 784 761 767 -17% 1% 13.6 13.5 8.6 8.4 2.4 2.2 net cash 5.1 18.4
Semen Baturaja HOLD 391 350 3,847 354 352 36 36 36 36 8% -1% 10.9 10.9 5.2 8.8 1.3 1.2 net cash net cash 12.5
Cigarettes 140,508 15,573 12,886 8,094 6,697 89% -17% 9.0 10.9 9.3 8.4 2.2 2.0 26.6
Gudang Garam BUY 65,900 68,800 126,797 5,478 5,760 2,847 2,993 2,847 2,993 2% 5% 23.1 22.0 13.9 12.9 3.4 3.1 50.0 49.4 15.6
Construction 116,804 4,375 5,514 100 126 19% 26% 26.7 21.2 12.6 10.5 3.1 2.7 13.8
Jasa Marga BUY 5,575 8,000 37,910 1,531 1,779 480 614 513 657 19% 28% 11.6 9.1 12.9 11.5 3.0 2.8 87.5 95.8 12.8
Wijaya Karya HOLD 2,550 2,900 15,681 584 741 95 120 100 126 -5% 27% 26.8 21.2 11.1 8.9 2.8 2.5 14.7 28.8 11.1
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,900 4,700 18,886 635 857 131 177 138 185 19% 35% 29.7 22.0 11.5 9.3 5.1 3.6 26.1 25.6 20.9
Adhi Karya BUY 2,755 2,750 9,810 397 556 111 156 123 169 22% 40% 24.7 17.6 9.5 8.6 2.0 1.8 83.2 net cash 12.1
Waskita Karya BUY 1,930 2,150 26,195 833 1,089 61 80 61 80 19% 31% 31.4 24.0 16.9 12.6 2.9 2.7 52.2 net cash 14.2
Wika Beton HOLD 955 1,350 8,323 396 491 45 56 46 57 32% 24% 21.0 16.9 11.0 8.8 3.3 2.9 net cash net cash 17.1
Consumer 503,147 13,566 14,577 493 530 8% 7% 37.1 34.5 22.4 21.0 9.7 8.9 27.5
Indofood CBP BUY 15,675 13,800 91,400 3,033 3,308 520 567 520 567 16% 9% 30.1 27.6 21.0 19.8 5.8 5.2 net cash net cash 20.3
Indofood BUY 7,450 7,100 65,414 3,704 4,059 422 462 563 610 -5% 10% 17.7 16.1 7.9 7.7 2.3 2.1 30.9 19.5 13.8
Unilever BUY 44,150 42,000 336,865 6,036 6,624 791 868 791 868 5% 10% 55.8 50.9 39.7 36.1 66.6 62.5 8.2 14.7 123.2
Nippon Indosari Corpindo BUY 1,235 1,680 6,251 266 309 53 61 53 61 41% 16% 23.5 20.2 13.4 10.8 5.2 4.3 73.9 59.5 24.7
Mandom BUY 16,000 21,170 3,217 526 276 2,618 1,375 279 1,373 202% -47% 6.1 11.6 6.8 5.9 1.9 1.8 16.9 net cash 35.7
Healthcare 112,742 2,964 3,341 210 260 19% 24% 38.0 33.7 23.2 19.9 6.5 5.8 18.6
Kalbe Farma HOLD 1,300 1,355 60,938 2,040 2,274 44 49 43 49 -1% 12% 29.9 26.8 19.5 16.9 5.9 5.2 net cash net cash 20.6
Kimia Farma HOLD 1,280 1,130 7,109 258 287 46 52 42 47 10% 11% 27.6 24.8 18.5 16.2 3.7 3.3 net cash 6.3 14.2
Siloam Hospital HOLD 7,950 10,500 9,191 93 134 80 116 84 127 49% 44% 98.8 68.8 18.0 13.9 5.3 4.9 11.0 16.1 5.5
Mitra Keluarga BUY 2,440 2,580 35,504 574 646 39 44 39 43 11% 13% 61.9 55.0 45.1 39.0 10.7 9.7 net cash net cash 22.4
Heavy Equipment 58,465 6,331 6,015 1,385 1,316 14% -5% 9.2 9.7 3.8 3.5 1.4 1.3 15.9
Hexindo Adiperkasa HOLD 1,215 3,650 1,021 220 260 262 309 238 273 13% 18% 4.6 3.9 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.3 net cash net cash 8.0
United Tractors HOLD 15,400 18,500 57,444 6,111 5,756 1,638 1,543 1,638 1,543 14% -6% 9.4 10.0 3.9 3.6 1.5 1.4 net cash net cash 16.5
Mining 83,960 6,032 4,691 76 59 -25% -22% 13.9 17.9 4.6 5.2 0.8 0.8 6.0
Adaro Energy BUY 740 750 23,670 2,249 1,577 70 49 70 49 9% -30% 10.5 15.0 3.9 4.1 0.6 0.6 41.0 32.0 6.4
Timah HOLD 750 570 5,586 101 180 14 24 14 24 -84% 78% 55.3 31.0 9.5 7.9 1.0 1.0 36.4 34.7 1.8
Vale Indonesia BUY 1,920 3,700 19,078 887 1,090 89 110 89 110 -56% 23% 21.5 17.5 5.8 5.4 0.8 0.8 net cash net cash 4.1
Aneka Tambang BUY 457 472 10,982 (706) (293) (74) (31) (74) (31) -5% -59% (6.2) (14.9) 17.3 15.2 0.7 0.7 44.8 13.3 -4.9
Bukit Asam BUY 6,400 7,800 14,746 1,970 1,445 906 665 906 665 -2% -27% 7.1 9.6 5.0 6.6 1.5 1.4 net cash net cash 21.4
Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 6,750 7,300 7,627 1,504 814 1,331 720 1,331 720 -28% -46% 5.1 9.4 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.6 net cash net cash 14.1
Harum Energy HOLD 840 790 2,271 28 (123) 10 (45) 10 (45) 471% -540% 81.5 (18.5) 1.6- 2.8 0.6 0.6 net cash net cash 0.8
Property 98,151 8,896 10,205 87 99 -10% 15% 11.0 9.6 9.8 8.5 1.9 1.7 18.8
Alam Sutera BUY 395 700 7,762 1,254 1,516 64 77 73 85 15% 21% 6.2 5.1 6.8 5.7 1.1 0.9 85.7 75.3 18.9
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,775 2,100 34,163 2,369 2,617 135 150 140 156 -36% 10% 13.1 11.9 11.5 10.1 2.3 2.0 net cash net cash 16.6
Metropolitan Land BUY 208 620 1,592 290 322 38 43 38 43 14% 11% 5.4 4.9 4.3 4.0 0.7 0.6 25.0 27.7 14.2
Surya Semesta Internusa HOLD 685 1,040 3,223 464 415 99 88 103 93 32% -11% 6.9 7.8 2.8 2.8 1.1 1.0 net cash net cash 16.9
Lippo Karawaci BUY 1,080 1,200 24,924 1,565 1,763 72 82 58 64 -38% 13% 14.9 13.2 11.4 9.8 1.6 1.4 19.2 27.3 10.1
PP Properti BUY 227 242 3,188 1,626 1,963 21 26 22 28 172% 27% 11.1 8.7 7.6 6.9 1.4 1.3 35.1 8.8 100.6
Summarecon BUY 1,615 2,045 23,299 1,327 1,609 92 111 92 111 -5% 21% 17.6 14.5 12.9 10.6 4.7 3.8 66.7 57.1 29.6
Retail 28,403 1,039 1,211 40 47 6% 17% 27.3 23.5 12.4 10.9 3.1 2.9 11.8
Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 4,980 4,650 8,267 161 275 97 166 107 175 117% 71% 51.3 30.0 9.1 7.8 2.6 2.5 114.7 72.4 5.6
Ramayana HOLD 735 775 5,216 321 331 45 47 45 47 -9% 3% 16.2 15.7 9.9 8.9 1.5 1.4 net cash net cash 9.4
Ace Hardware HOLD 870 745 14,921 557 604 32 35 31 34 0% 9% 26.8 24.7 18.8 17.0 5.7 5.1 net cash net cash 22.4
Core EPS (Rp)Equity
Valuation Rating Price (Rp)
Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Net Gearing ROE EPS Growth PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
LEADERS Price as on
Code 14-Mar-2016 11-Mar-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Alam Sutera ASRI 395 363 8.8 7.6 17.6 15.2 BUY
Indosat ISAT 6,000 5,675 5.7 5.7 11.1 9.1 BUY
Semen Baturaja SMBR 391 370 5.7 12.7 21.1 34.4 HOLD
Timah TINS 750 710 5.6 23.0 33.9 48.5 HOLD
Gajah Tunggal GJTL 685 650 5.4 21.2 42.1 29.2 BUY
MNC Sky Vision MSKY 1,135 1,080 5.1 8.6 (4.2) (15.0) HOLD
Jasa Marga JSMR 5,575 5,325 4.7 4.2 (3.5) 6.7 BUY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,775 1,705 4.1 1.7 0.9 (1.4) BUY
XL Axiata EXCL 4,205 4,090 2.8 1.8 7.8 15.2 BUY
Aneka Tambang ANTM 457 445 2.7 13.4 26.2 45.5 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARD Price as on
Code 14-Mar-2016 11-Mar-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Kimia Farma KAEF 1,280 1,295 (1.2) 7.6 11.3 47.1 HOLD
Wika Beton WTON 955 965 (1.0) 1.1 (5.9) 15.8 HOLD
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,900 3,935 (0.9) 5.3 (2.1) 0.6 BUY
PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,695 1,710 (0.9) 14.1 11.9 28.4 HOLD
Ramayana RALS 735 740 (0.7) (9.8) 14.8 14.0 HOLD
Siloam Hospital SILO 7,950 8,000 (0.6) - (9.7) (18.9) HOLD
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,325 5,350 (0.5) 0.9 (1.4) 6.7 BUY
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 1,695 1,700 (0.3) 0.9 14.1 30.9 BUY
Selamat Sempurna SMSM 4,505 4,510 (0.1) 0.1 2.4 (5.4) BUY
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional BTPN 2,800 2,800 - - 34.0 16.7 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated
companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof.
We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought
against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any
liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement
with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.