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Key Take-Aways1. For decades, a strategy to meet environmental
goals has been to reduce use of electricity.
2. Major trends have caused this to change, and now a strategy is to use electricity in more places to reduce GHG – a pro-growth and pro-environmental strategy.
3. Beneficial Electrification may lead to scenarios where more electricity is used, but fewer overall GHG emissions are produced
4. If your state has a policy to reduce electric consumption annually, let’s talk about more productive goals and policies.
5. Let’s get started ASAP!
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Environmentally Beneficial Electrification: The Dawn of
“Emissions Efficiency”
The Electricity JournalSeptember 1, 2016
What the heck is EBE, and what is “Emissions
Efficiency”?
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619016301075
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Growing Consensus for EBE
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab finds:
The key to meeting GHG goals is “widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating,
and industry heating.”
• United Nations, E3, Acadia Center, Stanford and Columbia Universities, California Pathways Project, DOE’s QER, Bill Nye the Science Guy and many more are all adding to the chorus.
• Consensus on benefits of renewed electrification
Why is EBE Possible Now?
1. Adoption of GHG reduction public policy goals
2. Declining electricity sector GHG emissions
3. Increased efficiency of end-use equipment
4. Technology advances in other sectors
5. Need for “flexiwatts” to integrate renewable energy
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But current metrics, policies, and even conventional wisdom need to change in
order to enable EBE…
Electric Technology Has Changed -Electric Agricultural Pumps and Heat Pumps
Great opportunity to incentivize electric agricultural pumps and heat pumps for space heating in rural areas!!!
Down The Road – More Electric Tractors and Broadband/Technology Enabled Water Management
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Lbs
CO2
per
MW
hCarbon Intensity of US Electric Sector Generation
2005-2030
Historic Projected with CPP
Opportunity for “Environmentally Beneficial Electrification” to Improve “Emissions Efficiency”
• While the energy efficiency of devices will not change once installed, the emissions efficiency (or “emiciency”) will improve over time.
• Provides great opportunity for rural coop members – folks using fuel oil for houses heating, diesel for agricultural pumps, need help with up front equipment costs etc.
Metrics Matter!
• Emissions Efficiency (“Emiciency”):
− Greater emissions efficiency reflects fewer emissions created per unit of useful output of an energy-consuming service.
− For example, fewer pounds of CO2 emitted per mile traveled by a car or fewer pounds of CO2 emitted per gallon of hot water provided by a water
• Three examples from The Electricity Journal paper illustrate the importance of aligning metrics and accounting practices with policy goals…
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Illustrative ExampleHypothetical Utility
with 100,000 consumers;
50% Gas; 50% Coal
Summary Data Pre Shift
With 50% Coal, 50% Gas 0.715 tons/MWh
Space Heat Number Emissions
Oil 20,000 111,297
Propane 10,000 54,998
Electric Resistance 30,000 303,582
Electric Heat Pump 20,000 80,952
Natural gas 20,000 108,468
Subtotal 100,000 659,297
Water Heat
Propane 30,000 48,920
Electric Resistance 49,000 137,127
Electric Heat Pump 1,000 1,063
Natural Gas 20,000 23,985
Subtotal 100,000 211,095
Vehicles
Electricity 10 14
Gasoline 179,990 475,346
Diesel 20,000 59,358
Subtotal 200,000 534,719
Total Emissions @ 50% Coal 50% Gas 1,405,111
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Result after EE Upgrades and Electrification
Summary Data Pre Shift Post Shift
With 50% Coal, 50% Gas 0.715 tons/MWh
Space Heat Number Emissions Number Emissions
Subtotal 100,000 659,297 100,000 508,549
Water Heat
Subtotal 100,000 211,095 100,000 130,709
Vehicles
Subtotal 200,000 534,719 200,000 466,869
Total Emissions @ 50% Coal 50% Gas 1,405,111 1,106,127
Change -21%
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The same amount of KWh are used and same electric sector generation sources are used, but emissions decrease 21%
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CO2 Accounting and Emissions Efficiency
• Electric sector CO2 at ~1993 levels (1st half 2016 = 1991!)
• With ~2.5% per year GDP growth
• 890 billion kWh more today than 1993; enough to power all 253 million vehicles run by gasoline and diesel in US today!
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Incremental “Emiciency” Factor
Type
New Capacity
(GW)
2015 Average
Capacity Factor
Estimated
Generation (MWh)
Emissions Rate
(Short Tons/MWh)
Emissions
(Short Tons)
Solar 9.50 28.6% 23,800,920 0.00 0.00
Natural Gas 8.00 56.3% 39,455,040 0.45 17,754,752
Wind 6.80 32.5% 19,359,600 0.00 0.00
Nuclear 1.10 92.2% 8,884,392 0.00 0.00
Petroleum and Other 0.30 1.3% 34,164 1.08 37,068
Hydro 0.30 35.9% 943,452 0.00 0.00
Total 26.00 40.6% 92,477,568 0.19 17,791,820
• EIA: More than 26 gigawatts of generating capacity will be added in 2016, mostly from renewables and natural gas
• Emission rate of new generation is very low
Rural Residential Needs
• You can really impact people’s lives in rural areas – with a tailored and appropriate approach
• Federal policies and programs can skew towards national numbers (not always reflective of rural use)
• 55% of co-op power is consumed by residential consumers-members.
• More than half of coop service territory has no natural gas service and new service is not cost-effective
• Finding ways to help folks save money by wise energy use is what we do and will be a key strategy moving forward
Coop Facts – Serving the Rural Demographic
• The average income for co-op-served households is about 12 percent lower than the national average.
• 9 in 10 electric cooperatives have average household incomes below the national average, and 4 in 5 have average household incomes lower than their state averages.
• Cooperatives serve the vast majority of the nation’s persistent poverty counties (327 out of 353, or 93 percent). These counties have deeply entrenched poverty with rates consistently 20 percent or above for the last three decades.
• In all, 1 in 6 of the 42 million Americans served by cooperatives live below the poverty line, many of them in these counties.
• At 14.7 percent, the share of mobile homes in the housing stock of co-op territories is more than double the US average of 6.5 percent.
So, What to Do For Low-Income Consumers?
• Low Income folks pay more of their income to energy, but also use less.
• Using national average EE analysis can lead to counterproductive strategies that never pay back and increase burden.
• One size does not fit all and these folks are can be left behind by policymakers or even burdened further unintentionally
Image is from EDF: James Fine EUCI: Demand Response— The Next Generation 11/15
Resources on How To Help Consumers With Electric Water Heating
Visit: https://www.cooperative.com/public/bts/energy-efficiency
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Brattle Report – Lots of Options to Save $
• According to Forbes: 6 in 10 Americans don't have $500 in savings
• Using electric water heaters to use energy when it is cheaper and not when it is expensive can be done without consumer impact
• Savings can be passed to consumer by lower upfront costs or bill reductions and lower rates
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Time to Implement! –The “Community Storage Initiative”
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The “Community Storage” Concept
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Community Storage Initiative Founding Supporters
Key Take-Aways
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1. For decades, a strategy to meet environmental goals has been to reduce use of electricity.
2. Major trends have caused this to change, and now a strategy is to use electricity in more places to reduce GHG – a pro-growth and pro-environmental strategy.
3. Beneficial Electrification may lead to scenarios where more electricity is used, but fewer overall GHG emissions are produced
4. If your state has a policy to reduce electric consumption annually, let’s talk about more productive goals and policies.
5. Let’s get started ASAP!
