More Is DifferentSorin Solomon

HUJ and ISI

Real world is controlled …– by the exceptional, not the mean; – by the catastrophe, not the steady drip; – by the very rich, not the ‘middle class’.

we need to free ourselves from ‘average’ thinking.

Philip Anderson

Executive Abstract:

The Multi-Agent Complex Systems approach identifies-singular local elements of change / growth (even at early stages where, as whole, the system seems in regress)

-spatio-temporal patterns of growth relevant resources - socio-economic / human interactive causal mechanisms leading to growth (e.g. education / cultural level / tradition).

Concrete interdisciplinary example: post-liberalization Poland- identifies emergence of resilient, sustainable, developing patterns likely to support sustainable global growth

- prediction of (space-time) singular fluctuation patterns that may lead to increased social inequality and economic instability (but also to novelty emergence)

The classical paradigms fail in predicting emergence of novelty / development in bio/ cogni / socio/ econo systems

- Extension of study to other regions / disciplines

“Almost all the social phenomena…

obey the logistic growth” Elliot W Montroll

I would urge… logistic equation early in the education

… in the everyday world of politics and economics Lord Robert May

- Nonlinear Terms (Competion/Saturation) Growth ~ Size“continuum” Logistic Solution: uniform in space and time:

< 0

Size

TIME

In reality, in Growth ~ Size, is the result of multi-agent spatio-temporal distributed discrete contributions

This leads to a complex solution presenting fractal / intermittentcollective macro-objects with self-organized adaptive behavior

Theorem: resilience and sustainability

even for <><0

Logistic

Differential Equation < 0

Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction

TIME

Size

ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 0

Andrzej Nowak lab

Poland Post-Liberalization

Social-Economic-Political Development predictions:

Multi-Agents vs Differential Equations

Seemingly similar regions before liberalization

Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction

Logistic

Differential Equation < 0

1989 1990 19921991

Nowak

Emerges islandof growth

Large region of decay

First year: Global Decay;

- MACS predicts Future Growth- DE predicts continuous decay (based on the same Logistsic parameters !)

Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction

Logistic

Differential Equation < 0

1989 1990 19921991

ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 1

Andrzej Nowak lab

Most regions are devastated

But MACS sees already nuclei of growth

Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction

Logistic

Differential Equation < 0

1989 1990 19921991

ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 2

Andrzej Nowak lab

Yr2:Globally, the situation seems getting worse and worse

MACS wins over DE

(for the same Logistic parameters)

Development spreads from the nuclei to the rest of the country

Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction

Logistic

Differential Equation < 0

1989 1990 19921991

ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 3

Andrzej Nowak lab

What were the A’s ?

ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 12

Andrzej Nowak lab

EDUCATION (‘88) !!!!

Nowak

the A’s !

Andrzej Nowak lab

EDUCATION (‘88)(note complete correspondence with growth areas AFTER but NOT BEFORE liberalization !)

Nowak

Economic Growth is in turn “A’s” for Political Transformation

Voting for Reformist Parties

Nowak

Fractal Wealth Distribution: Scaling; Power laws

Dell

Buffet

20ALLEN

GATES

WALMART

No one however, has yet exhibited a stable social order, ancient or modern, which has not followed the Pareto pattern… Davis; Cowles Commission for Research in Economics

Pareto’s curve … great generalizations

of human knowledge. Snyder 1939

stochastic Logistic systems=> Pareto Laws

Theorem : Generically

The 100 year old Pareto puzzle is solved by combining

the 100 year old logistic Lotka-Volterra equation with the 100 year old Boltzmann Statistical Mechanics

Wide Interdisciplinary Experimental ConfirmationNr of Species vs individuals size Nr of Species vs number of specimensNr of Species vs their life time Nr of Languages vs number of speakersNr of countries vs population / size Nr of towns vs. populationNr of product types vs. number of units soldNr of treatments vs number of patients treatedNr of patients vs cost of treatmentNr of moon craters vs their size Nr of earthquakes vs their strenthNr of meteorites vs their size Nr of voids in universe vs their sizeNr of galaxies vs their size Nr of rives vs the size of their basin

Globalization (efficient but unstable fluctuations)

Local Consumption Economy (inefficient but very stable (if population is stable))

Theorem: Logistic Multi-Agent Systems=>Intermittent Fluctuations

Distribution of individual wealth ~

(by MACS Prediction)

Distribution of global financial fluctuations

Social equity is good for the financial stability!

Levy

fractal space distributionPrediction of campaign success (15/17) Goldenberg

Air-view of a sub-urban neighborhood;

crosses on the roofs indicate air-conditioner purchase

Desertification/ Reclaim space-time localized patterns

Mediterranean; uniform 500mm

Semi-arid; patchy

Desert;uniform200mm

Lavee+Sarah

Piemonte

Belarus

Piemonte

Romania

Future and on-going studies

Conclusions• The connections between the main

ubiquitous complexity features Pareto-Zipf scaling laws / Levy-stable fat-tail fluctuations,

Fractal-Intermittent singular spatio-temporal Growth patterns, Logistic Malthus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster system Percolation, phase transitions, Emergence of adaptive objects

can be understood and expressed within a comprehensive coherent interdisciplinary research framework.

• Its applicability in monitoring and inducing novelty emergence, social change, stable economic growth and sustainable development has been demonstrated.