®

1st Aug 2016

Monthly Report On

SPICESAug 2016

1

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Spot NCDEX

-

-

6.78%

2.21%

7.94%

17.20%

7.87%

0.73%

6.29%

12.58%

-5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00%

Jeera

Turmeric

Cardamom

Coriander

Monthly Price movement of Spices (% Change)

Spot NCDEX

2

Fundamentals�Turmeric futures (September) is likely to witness a consolidation

in the range of 7800-8400 levels, with upside getting capped. Selling may emerge at higher levels, due to lack of demand.

�Turmeric ruled more or less steady at the major markets across the country in the absence of encouraging cues from buying and selling side.

�Spot prices of turmeric as well as arrivals are increasing at Erode markets on quality arrivals.

�At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger variety went for Rs.7,424-9,484 a quintal; the root variety at Rs.7,236-8,499.

�Domestic and export demand is thin at present; however market participants are optimistic about demand to pick up from later this month or after August.

�This is usually lean demand season due to monsoon in many parts of the country, however falling stocks in the country is likely to provide good supports at the current level.

�Turmeric stocks in the country are estimated 25-28 lakh tonnes.�Demand in turmeric is hand-to-mouth, but long term seems to be

bullish as stockists are unlikely to liquidate their stocks easily at the lower rates.

�Regarding sowing update, turmeric sowing in Telangana as on July 27 stood at 41,000 hectares versus 36,000 hectares' same period a year ago, while sowing in Andhra Pradesh reached at 8,000 hectares as against 6,000 hectares.

MARKET MOVEMENT AHEAD

Commodity: TURMERIC (September) Range: 7800-8400

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Fundamentals�Jeera futures (September) is looking bullish & has the

potential to test 21000-22000 levels, in days to come, supported by its tight supplies & elevated demand from overseas markets. The counter is also expected to take support near 19350 levels.

�Cumin is trading strong in major market of Rajasthan amid good buying at every level.

�The price of jeera (cumin) has reached a historic high of Rs 3,800 per 20 kg at the Unjha mandi (wholesale market) in Gujarat's Mehsana district on tight supply, coupled with good export and domestic demand.

�Good buying is being observed from local and upcountry traders tracking strong futures and lower supply.

�As against a demand of about 12,000 bags (55 kg each), the current supply is around 5,000 bags at Unjha,

�However, buyers are cautious at the higher level and waiting for some clear cues from export front.

�Meanwhile China and Bangladesh have bought cumin heavily so far this season and export demand is likely to continue to witness an upside, as other producing countries are not well placed for supplies.

�It is reported that China has bought around 18,000-20,000 tonnes in April-May from India. China is likely to procure total 30,000 tonnes of cumin this season.

�Exports during April-June were about 45,000 tonnes, sharply up from 27,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.

Commodity: JEERA (August) Range: 17000-19000

9 Days EMA 18 Days EMA 55 Days EMA

9 Days EMA 18 Days EMA 55 Days EMA

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

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Fundamentals�Cardamom futures (September) will possibly trade

higher towards 1000 levels, taking support near 880 levels, owing to anticipation of shortage in supplies due to lower output & delay in harvesting.

�This season, a delay in harvesting and rising prices from an anticipated sharp decline in output could hit initial purchases for festival season.

�Harvesting of small cardamom in Kerala, the principal growing region of the spice in the country, normally begins in July and by August, traders are able to meet demand for the festival season that starts in September, the busiest time in the domestic market. An unusually long summer without rains has delayed the harvest, which is now likely only by the end of August or in September. The market is currently running on carryover stock from the previous year

�Apart from the damage inflicted by the summer, the absence of sufficient rains in cardamom belts of Idukki and Wayanad now is also worrying.

�A decaying disease that has afflicted the crop in the heavy rains. Earlier, while the crop wilted in the scorching summer heat, it is the incessant rain lashing the high ranges that has played spoilsport now.

�The crop is now afflicted with disease as a result of which the plants have started to droop. Consequently, cardamom plantations spread across vast areas in the high ranges have been hit.

Commodity: CARDAMOM (September) Range: 1000-880

Fundamentals

�Coriander (September) may take an attempt to break

the resistance near 8500 levels & show an extended

upside momentum towards 9000, taking support near

8050-7950 levels.

�Coriander is trading strong in Rajasthan and Madhya

Pradesh with local demand.

�Demand of coriander is increasing regularly & the supply

problem in noticed due to the rainfall.

�Coriander is now only in hands of stockists in Rajasthan as

Gujarat farmers and stockists had mostly sold their produce.

Stockists in Rajasthan are reluctant to sell their stocks at

lower rates and hence the supply crunch likely to witness

ahead, which will push prices higher.

�Rajasthan based sellers are likely to sell their produce slowly

and will wait for festival demand to pick up, which will start

from September.

Commodity: Coriander (September) Range: 9000-7950

9 Days EMA 18 Days EMA 55 Days EMA

Source: Reuters

9 Days EMA 18 Days EMA 55 Days EMA

Source: Reuters

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Source: SMC Research

Forward curve of Turmeric futures

As per closing on 29th July 2016 Source: SMC Research

Forward curve of Jeera futures

As per closing on 29th July 2016

Source: SMC Research

Forward curve of Cardamom futures

As per closing on 29th July 2016

Forward cruve of Coriander futures

Forward curve of Spices

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Source: SMC ResearchAs per closing on 29th July 2016

17590.00

17915.00

18160.00

18290.00

18420.00

17000.00

17200.00

17400.00

17600.00

17800.00

18000.00

18200.00

18400.00

18600.00

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

8154.00

8130.00

8156.00

8182.00

8100.00

8110.00

8120.00

8130.00

8140.00

8150.00

8160.00

8170.00

8180.00

8190.00

Aug Sep Oct Nov

959.70

930.50

917.30

900.10 900.00

860.00

870.00

880.00

890.00

900.00

910.00

920.00

930.00

940.00

950.00

960.00

970.00

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

8,526.00

8,384.00

8,360.00 8,335.00

8,200.00

8,250.00

8,300.00

8,350.00

8,400.00

8,450.00

8,500.00

8,550.00

Aug Sep Oct Nov

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Source: SMC Research

Turmeric futures Seasonal Index(Based on Avg. price from 2009-2015)

Source: SMC Research

Jeera futures Seasonal Index(Based on Avg. price from 2009-2015)

Source: SMC Research

Cardamom futures Seasonal Index(Based on Avg. price from 2009-2015)

Coriander futures Seasonal Index(Based on Avg. price from 2009-2015)

Monthly seasonal price movement of Spices

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Source: SMC Research

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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For further any queries, please contact

Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst subhranildey@smcindiaonline.com

Ph.: 011-30111000

Extn.: 674