Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Monthly Report May 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | April 2018
TASI Movement During April
TASI ended the month at 8208.87 points, a 4.3%MoM increase and a rise of 13.6%YTD. Total value traded
stood at SAR 107.97bn. Basic Materials and Banks sectors accounted for 52.86% of the total value traded.
Media and Consumer Durables were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 45.8%MoM and
12.9%MoM respectively. While REITs and Food & Beverages sectors were the worst performers showing a
decline of 3.2%MoM and 0.18%MoM respectively. Dubai index declined 9.0%YTD.
TASI started the month at
7,870.87 points and closed
at 8,208.87 with an average
daily value traded of SAR
4.99bn compared to 4.17bn
in March.
TASI increased 338.0 points
(up 13.6%YTD). Media and
Food & Staples sectors
showed the highest YTD
increase of 82.3% and 24.1%
respectively. On other
hand, REITs and Real Estate
were the worst performing
sectors recording a decline
of 13.0%YTD and 7.9%YTD
respectively.
Basic Materials and Banks
registered the highest
traded values among
the sectors, accounting
for 31.27% and 21.59%,
respectively, of total value
traded in April. On the
other hand, Pharma and
Diversified Financials were
the lowest, accounting
for 0.51% and 0.14%
respectively.
Value Traded(bn)-RHS Closing Price - LHS
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
7,700
7,800
7,900
8,000
8,100
8,200
8,300
8,400
1-Apr-17 8-Apr-17 15-Apr-17 22-Apr-17 29-Apr-17
Sectors Performance
Value Traded per Sector (%)
MoM Performance YTD
-12.0%
8.0%
28.0%
48.0%
68.0%
88.0%
Capi
tal G
oods
Com
mer
cial
Ser
vice
Tran
spor
tati
on
Cons
umer
Dur
able
s
Cons
umer
Ser
vice
s
Food
& S
tapl
es
Food
& B
ever
ages
Phar
ma
& B
io T
ech
Div
ersi
�ed
Fina
ncia
ls
TASI
Ener
gy
Mat
eria
ls
Med
ia
Reta
iling
Hea
lthc
are
Bank
s
Insu
ranc
e
Tele
com
Uti
litie
s
REIT
s
Real
Est
ate
Real
Est
ate
Capi
tal G
oods
Food
& B
ever
ages
Cons
umer
Ser
vice
s
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Mat
eria
ls
Bank
s
Insu
ranc
e
Ener
gy
Tele
com
Med
ia
Oth
ers
YTD
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
Source:Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
2 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Monthly Report May 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | April 2018
Al Sorayai Group was the best performing stock in April recording an increase of 49.7%MoM followed by SRMG which showed an increase of 48.2%MoM. On the other hand, Southern Cement was the worst performing stock recording a decline of 18.7%MoM , followed by Arabian Cement which showed a decline of 15.2%MoM.
On a Monthly basis,
Qatar index was the best
performing index, rising
6.3%MoM. Bahrain index
was the worst performing
index, decline of 4.6%MoM.
Arabian Shield had the
lowest P/E of 7.99, followed
by Buruj at 8.47x and WALAA
at 8.57.
Monthly YTD
TASI Dubai(DFMGI)
Qatar Kuwait Bahrain OmanAbu dahbi(ADSMI)
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
AlSo
raya
i Gro
up
SRM
G
Shar
qiya
Dev
Al A
lam
iya
BJAZ
Saud
i Cem
ent
Saud
i Cab
le
Yanb
u Ce
men
t
Arab
ian
Cem
ent
Sout
hern
Cem
ent
7.998.47 8.57 8.58 8.67
9.00 9.169.59
10.07 10.1910.67
11.10 11.24 11.30 11.42
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
Arab
ian
Shie
ld
Buru
j
WAL
AA
Trad
e Un
ion
AL-B
ABTA
IN
Gulf
Unio
n
saib
SAIC
O
Sala
ma
ARN
B
Zouj
aj
ALAW
WAL
BSFR
RIBL
ACC
Top/Worst Performing Companies
GCC Market Performance
Companies with lowest PE
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
3 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Monthly Report May 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | April 2018
3-month and 6-month
SAIBOR ended the month
at 2.38% and 2.56%
respectively. The 3-month
and 6-month SAIBOR
showed a MoM increase of
5.0% and 4.5% respectively.
Saudi Arabia inflation rate
stood at 2.8% at the end of
March, a decrease from 2.9%
in February.
Deposits showed a decline
of SAR 10.1bn (0.6%MoM),
while loans showed an
increase of SAR 4.0bn
(0.3%MoM) by end of March.
SAIBOR 3M SAIBOR 6M
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
-0.90%
-0.40%
0.10%
0.60%
1.10%
1.60%
2.10%
2.60%
3.10%
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18
Changes In Deposits(LHS) Changes in Loans(LHS) ADR(RHS)
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
-3.5%
-2.0%
-0.5%
1.0%
2.5%
4.0%
5.5%
Mar-1
3
Jun-
13
Sep-
13
Dec-
13
Mar-1
4
Jun-
14
Sep-
14
Dec-
14
Mar-1
5
Jun-
15
Sep-
15
Dec-
15
Mar-1
6
Jun-
16
Sep-
16
Dec-
16
Mar-1
7
Jun-
17
Sep-
17
Dec-
17
Mar-1
8
Inflation Rate
SAIBOR
Deposits & loans
Economic Data
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
Total loans showed a decline of 0.9%YoY in March. The highest decline was for loans with maturity of above 3 years, which showed a decline of 2.6%YoY, while loans of maturity of 1-3 years showed an increase of 1.3%YoY. Loans with maturity less than 1 year showed a decline of 0.7%YoY. Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS 1 to 3 year (%) -LHS Above 3 year (%) -LHS Total loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
-5.0%
-2.0%
1.0%
4.0%
7.0%
10.0%
13.0%
16.0%
-15.0%
0.0%
15.0%
30.0%
45.0%
Mar-1
5
May-
15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
Nov-
15
Jan-
16
Mar-1
6
May-
16
Jul-1
6
Sep-
16
Nov-
16
Jan-
17
Mar-1
7
May-
17
Jul-1
7
Sep-
17
Nov-
17
Jan-
18
Mar-1
8
Change in Loans by Maturity (%) Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
4 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Monthly Report May 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | April 2018
Demand deposits showed
an increase of SAR 3.1
(0.3%MoM) in March.
Time & Saving deposits
showed an increase of
SAR 1.8bn (0.4%MoM).
In addition, government
deposits showed a
decline of (0.6%MoM).
Point of Sales showed a
decline of 27.0%MoM in
March and stood at SAR
19.5bn, with total number
of transactions standing at
82.5mn (up 21.8%MoM).
Demand Deposit (LHS) Time & Savings Deposits (LHS) Other Deposits (LHS) Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
SAR
('000
)
SAR
(Milli
on)
-60,000
-35,000
-10,000
15,000
40,000
65,000
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Mar-1
3
Jul-1
3
Nov-
13
Mar-1
4
Jul-1
4
Nov-
14
Mar-1
5
Jul-1
5
Nov-
15
Mar-1
6
Jul-1
6
Nov-
16
Mar-1
7
Jul-1
7
Nov-
17
Mar-1
8
Sales(bn) (LHS) No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
SAR
(Milli
on)
SAR
('000
)24.0
34.0
44.0
54.0
64.0
74.0
84.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
Mar-1
5
May-
15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
Nov-
15
Jan-
16
Mar-1
6
May-
16
Jul-1
6
Sep-
16
Nov-
16
Jan-
17
Mar-1
7
May-
17
Jul-1
7
Sep-
17
Nov-
17
Jan-
18
Mar-1
8
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Monthly Report May 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | April 2018
Brent and WTI showed an
increase of 7.0%MoM and
5.6%MoM respectively, and
closed at $75.17 and $68.57
respectively.
Gold and Silver showed a
decline of 0.8%MoM and
0.2%MoM respectively,
and closed the month
at $1315.39 and $16.33
respectively.
Copper showed an increase
of 0.9%MoM and ended the
month at 3.0525 USD/lb.
Steel showed an increase of
0.7%MoM and ended the
month at 865 USD/ton.
Spread(RHS) Brent(LHS) WTI(LHS)
Apr-17 Mar-18 Apr-18May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-180
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
Changes in Gold Price(LHS) Changes in Silver Price(LHS) G/S Price (RHS)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct-1
3
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct-1
4
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct-1
5
Jan-
16
Apr-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct-1
6
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
USD/
Ib
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18
USD/
Ton
Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18570
620
670
720
770
820
870
* May 2018 contract for Brent, April 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Oil Prices (USD) *
Copper
Steel **
Commodities Prices
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
6 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Monthly Report May 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | April 2018
EUR/USD
Dollar Index
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Apr-1
7
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-1
7
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-1
8
Apr-1
8
USD/YUAN
USD/YEN
1.04
1.07
1.1
1.13
1.16
1.19
1.22
1.25
1.28
Apr-1
7
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-1
7
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-1
8
Apr-1
8
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7
Apr-1
7
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-1
7
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-1
8
Apr-1
8
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
Apr-1
7
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-1
7
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-1
8
Apr-1
8
Exchange Rate
Dollar Index showed an
increase of 2.1%MoM by the
end of April and stood at
91.84 points.
Euro depreciated against
the Dollar by 2.0%MoM and
stood at 1.2078 EUR/USD.
YUAN depreciated by
0.9%MoM against the
Dollar and stood at 6.3322
YUAN/USD.
YEN depreciated by
2.9%MoM against the Dollar
and stood at 109.34 YEN/USD.
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory
Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
RESE
ARC
H D
IVIS
ION
RESE
ARC
H
DIV
ISIO
NRA
TIN
GTE
RMIN
OLO
GY
BRO
KERA
GE A
ND IN
VEST
MEN
T CE
NTER
S DI
VISI
ON
Disclaimer
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.
1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.
2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.
3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months.
4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Head of Research
Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]
AnalystSultan Al Kadi, CAIA+966 11 [email protected]
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 [email protected]
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr+966 11 [email protected]
Analyst
Muhanad Al-Odan+966 11 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
sales
Alaa Al-Yousef+966 11 [email protected]
AGM-Head of international and institutional
brokerage
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 [email protected]
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
Centers
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi +966 12 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 [email protected]