Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

HEADLINES – FULL YEAR 2012 (PROVISIONAL)1 Overall visits

31.148 million visits making 2012 the best year for inbound tourism since 2008 but not a record.

1% increase in visits on 2011 (30.798 visits) slightly surpassing VisitBritain’s forecast for 0% growth in 2012.

Overall spend

4% increase in spend to £18.7 billion (from £18 billion in 2011), a record high in nominal terms.

Average spend per visit remains very high at £601. 2012 growth driven by

Holiday visits almost equalling 2011 record (11.95 million, 0% change on 12.01 million in 2011)

VFR (9 million) and business (7.4 million) visits both with best year since 2008, 2% up on 2011

Record 4.9 million visits from ‘Rest of World’ markets (outside Europe and North America)

Record 2.2 million visits from non EU European markets (e.g. Russia, Switzerland, Norway)

N America (3.7 million visits) and A12 European markets (2.8 million) both seeing best year since 2008, although not at record levels

But 17.6 million visits from high volume EU15 markets 1% lower than 2011, lowest since 2005.

HEADLINES – DECEMBER 2012 (PROVISIONAL)2 Overall visits and spend

A very strong December, with 2.4 million visits a 12% increase in visits on last December, making December 2012 the best December for four years (since 2008).

A record amount (in nominal terms) spent in December, 15% more than in December 2011.

DEC 2012 LAST 3 MONTHS

(OCT - DEC) 2012 PROVISIONAL

% change vs. Dec 2011

% change vs. Oct - Dec ’11

% change vs.

2011

ALL VISITS (000) 2,410 12% 7,550 5% 31,148 1%

Spend (£ million) 1,490 15% 4,370 -1% 18,710 4%

December saw continued growth for all journey purposes

Holiday: up 19% in December to a record high of 740,000.

VFR: an increase of 7% in December.

Business: an increase of 11% in December.

December saw growth from all origin world regions

From EU15 markets: After changeable recent months 8% growth - best December since 2008.

From A12 European markets: Continued return to strong growth, up 42% in December.

From European markets outside EU27: Record visits, up 16% on December 2011.

From North America: Following a November downturn December saw a 6% increase in visits.

From ‘Rest of World’ markets: Record visits, 19% increase on December 2011.

1 All monthly data is provisional. Final 2012 data will be released in July 2013. 2 All monthly data is provisional. Final 2012 data will be released in July 2013.

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

Welcome to VisitBritain’s monthly update on inbound tourism Our monthly updates present the latest International Passenger Survey (IPS) data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Quarterly Release for this period (October-December 2012) which may contain some revisions will be in April 2013. The next Monthly Release will be on 14th March 2013 covering data for January 2013. The Insights & Statistics section of the VisitBritain website has much more detail on long term trends, visits from individual markets and to UK regions If you have any questions or feedback please email the Research team at VisitBritain via vb.research@visitbritain.org Please note All figures are provisional and subject to revision by ONS, all figures quoted are ‘not seasonally adjusted’. Numbers in some tables / charts may not sum due to rounding. Data is based on interviews with a sample of departing visitors. The number interviewed varies but is typically 4,000-5,000 per month. ‘Visit’ – all departing visits from overseas residents (including those who may be UK nationals but live elsewhere, excluding other nationals who have been in the UK for 12 months or longer) ‘Spend’ – the amount visitors report spending in the UK during their stay Please refer to the final page for full glossary.

CONTENTS

1. Headlines

2. Latest data October and last three months by journey purpose and world region

3. Rolling 12 months Year to date by journey purpose and world region

4. VisitBritain target markets

Percentage change over the last 12 months

5. UK residents outbound

6. Context Influencing Factors International Picture

7. Longer term data

Overall trends since 2000 Journey Purpose World Region

8. Detailed trends by month

Overall visits and spend Journey Purpose World Region

9. Definitions and Further

Information

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

LATEST SHORT TERM DATA - DECEMBER AND LAST THREE MONTHS3 Monthly data is indicative. Looking at the last three months gives a more reliable picture. Holiday visits were at record highs earlier in 2012, and returned to a record high in December. Looking over the last three months holiday visits were 3% below the same period in 2011.

VFR visits grew by 7% in December 2012 compared to December 2011 (the best December since 2007), and are 3% up over the three month period. Business visits continued last month’s growth direction and were 11% up on December 2011, the best December since 2007.

Visits for miscellaneous purposes (e.g. study, looking for work) dropped steeply in early 2012 but recent increases even out at 12% up over three months to December.

EU15 Following growth in spring 2012 but recent variability these important markets showed sizeable growth in December, with visits 8% up in December and 2% up over the October-December period. Visits from A12 countries continue to return to growth, 25% up across the three months to December. Visits from non-EU Europe countries continue record growth, 16% up in December to a record high, although 5% lower across the three months to December reflecting a weak October. N American visits were up 6% in December, and up 5% over the last three months. ‘Rest of World’ region (those outside Europe / N. America) continued recent growth with visits up 12% to a record high in December. Across the October to December period visits were 10% up on 2011. More: Q4 release (Oct-Dec 2012) in April 2013 will provide visits by markets and UK region visited.

3 These figures give an indication of the very latest trends, but should be used with caution. IPS is not designed to report

accurately by month, and figures should be treated as indicative. Analysis of the last three months is more reliable.

DEC 2012 LAST 3 MONTHS

(OCT -DEC)

Visits (000)

% change vs.

Dec 2011

Visits (000)

% change vs.

Oct - Dec ’11

By journey purpose

Holiday 740 19% 2,520 3%

VFR 850 7% 2,360 3%

Business 530 11% 1,930 6%

Miscellaneous 290 16% 740 12%

By world region

EU15 1,400 8% 4,410 2%

A12 240 42% 740 25%

Rest of Europe 190 16% 610 -5%

North America 220 6% 730 5%

Rest of World 360 19% 1,070 10%

ALL VISITS 2,410 12% 7,550 5%

Spend (£ million) 1,490 15% 4,370 -1%

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

MEDIUM TERM – ROLLING 12 MONTHS (2012) Holiday: holiday visits in 2012 are less than 1% below the same as the 2011 record (12 million). VFR: visits are slightly up, by 2% in 2012 compared to 2011, but are not at a record high. Business: the overall picture for business visits continues to be gradual recovery, with a 2% increase in 2012 reflecting the best year since 2008. Miscellaneous: slightly above the previous 12 month period, following growth in early 2012 and in the last few months. EU15: 17.577 million visits represents a 1% decrease in 2012 compared to 2011 (the lowest for since 2005). Even a small percentage decrease from these high volume markets significantly affects overall visit numbers. A12: at 2.8 million visits from EU Accession countries rose by 10% in the past year, with growth in the first months of 2012 and recently but they remain below records set in 2007-8. Rest of Europe: non-EU countries generated record levels of visits again in 2012, 7% higher than 2011. North America: there has been a slight 2% increase in the number of visits, the best year since 2008. Rest of World: this region (Central and South America, Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific) has delivered around 4.86 million visits in 2012, a record high 2% more than in 2011.

More: Data on longer term trends broken down by journey purpose, origin market, and season or UK region visited are available in our Quarterly files

PROVISIONAL 2012

Visits (000)

% change vs.

2011

By journey purpose

Holiday 11,953 0%

VFR 9,013 2%

Business 7,385 2%

Miscellaneous 2,796 3%

By world region

EU15 17,577 -1%

A12 2,822 10%

Rest of Europe 2,242 7%

North America 3,657 2%

Rest of World 4,859 2%

ALL 31,148 1%

Spend (£ million) 18,710 4%

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

VISITBRITAIN TARGET MARKETS NB. Charts show percentage not absolute changes so growth from smaller markets will be magnified (e.g. a change of around 1% from France equates to around 35,000 visits whilst a 1% change from China equates to just c.1, 000 visits).

Americas: North America (USA, Canada) - Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico) Asia Pacific: Australasia (Australia, New Zealand) - Greater China (China, Hong Kong) - South East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand) - North East Asia (Japan, South Korea) – India MEA: (UAE, South Africa) Europe: Iberia (Portugal, Spain) - Mediterranean (Italy, Greece) - Atlantic (France, Ireland) - Nordic (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden) - Benelux (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg) - Germany, Austria, Switzerland - Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland) – Russia

Percentage change in visits from World Regions

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

Percentage change in visits from European Markets

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

Percentage change in visits from Asian Markets

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

Percentage change in visits from American, Oceanic, Middle Eastern, African Markets

More: Absolute data showing changes to actual visit numbers by market will be available in the Quarterly release for this period in April 2013

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

TRAVEL OVERSEAS BY UK RESIDENTS December saw overseas visits by UK

residents almost in line with December 2011 (just 1% lower).

Looking across the last three months there were increases in VFR trips (up 7%) whilst business visits were flat and holiday visits were down (-3%). Trips to European destinations continue to grow, although slower (up 1%) whilst trips further afield continue to drop, visit to North America down 8% and ‘Rest of World’ by 6% compared to October – December 2011.

In the rolling year ending December 2012 Britain’s international tourism balance of payments deficit stood at £13.85bn, 1% higher than the year before.

More: VisitBritain attracts inbound visitors to Britain. For outbound travel from the UK visit ONS website CONTEXT - Influencing Factors

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone fell to its lowest level since April 2009 in October (Eurostat). Exchange rates for those visiting from Euro countries are also becoming less favourable. The cost of sterling against the Euro in December 2011 was €1.18 whilst by December 2012 it had risen to €1.23, a 4% year on year increase.

Snow in early December and fog in late December disrupted small numbers of flights.

More: Tourism Trends Quarterly analyses influence of factors such as capacity, exchange rates, and the economy. Trends Update - fortnightly summary of economic and transport news shaping tourism. The International Picture4 As shown the UK’s main competitors report mixed results with UK growth broadly in line with

France and Italy. Germany and USA are showing higher growth than other major UK competitor destinations.

Most other major destinations showed growth in the first half of 2012. Alongside S Africa, Asian destinations are amongst the highest growers so far in 2012 – especially Singapore and Thailand. There are also signs of recovery for Egypt and Japan after poor 2011 figures.

More: Competitor Trends

4 Periods for which we have data available varies by country, so figures are indicative and necessarily directly comparable.

LAST THREE MONTHS: OCT - DEC 2012

% change vs. Oct – Dec ‘11

Visits (000) 11,530 -1%

Spend (£ million) 6,330 -1%

UK and major competitors

Year to date growth (%)

Period (from January to …)

Germany 8% November USA 6% August Australia 4% November Spain 3% December France 2% October Turkey 2% December UK 1% December Republic of Ireland 0% December Switzerland 0% November Italy 0% October

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

LONGER TERM TRENDS IN VISITS, SPEND, AND SPEND PER VISIT SINCE 2000 The chart below shows year-on-year change in headline IPS results based on a ‘rolling twelve month’ basis. Presenting the data in this way enables us to spot emerging trends and helps to ‘smooth out’ erratic results for any single month. It clearly illustrates the dips in inbound tourism seen post foot and mouth and 9/11, and subsequent recovery to peaks in the mid-2000s, as well as the impact of economic situation in 2008 followed by slow but reasonably steady recovery. The last two years have seen more stability, with changes far less dramatic than those seen at several points over the last twelve years. SHARE OF VISITS The following two charts show that there have only been slight changes in the proportion of visits accounted for by any particular journey purpose or any origin world region over the last five years. The first charts shows the greatest change was a step change in the proportion of visits accounted for by holidays in the rolling year to December 2009, when it grew to from 34% to 38%. VFR visits have accounted for around 30%, business for around a quarter and miscellaneous for around 10% over the last five years. The second chart shows that European markets account for just under three quarters of all visits, the bulk (just under 60%) from the EU15. Visits from North America account for around one in nine visits (12%) and the ‘Rest of World’ region for around 15%. More: Long term trends in visits from individual origin markets and world regions available here

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

LONGER TERM TRENDS – JOURNEY PURPOSE Holiday visits were far more resilient to the economic downturn in the late 2000s and showing modest growth over the last couple of years although this has been more changeable in recent months. Business visits suffered a significant downturn in 2009, then a sustained recovery although this has slowed recently. Trips to visit friends and relatives received a distinct boost with very strong figures earlier in 2012 making this category one of the strongest for recent relative growth over the longer term. Trips for other (miscellaneous) purposes show the most variation recently almost returning to growth earlier in 2012 and boosted by Olympic participants in late summer 2012. LONGER TERM TRENDS – WORLD REGION The chart below shows the downward trend in visit numbers from all regions that began in the autumn of 2008, and the subsequent slow recovery from most regions followed by fewer dramatic changes recently. As of the year ending December 2012 only the EU15 markets were delivering negative growth. ‘Rest of Europe’ has been delivering fastest relative growth over the last 18 months although this has slowed recently. A12 European markets are also now delivering stronger growth. More: Data on long term trends are available here

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

DETAILED MONTHLY TRENDS IN OVERALL VISITS AND SPEND5

More: Monthly data is replaced by the more accurate Quarterly data. Long term trends showing percentage change annually by and more is available here

5 IPS is not designed to report accurately by month, and figures should be treated as indicative. The Quarterly Release for this period (October - December 2012) which may contain some

revisions will be in April 2013.

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

DETAILED MONTHLY TRENDS IN VISITS BY JOURNEY PURPOSE

Please note that different scales are used on these charts to allow differences to be identified

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

DETAILED MONTHLY TRENDS BY REGION OF WORLD

Please note that different scales are used on these charts to allow differences to be identified

Monthly Inbound Update: December 2012 (14/02/2013)

Definitions EU15 - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

A12 - Bulgaria, Cyprus (South), Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia Rest of Europe – European countries outside the EU (including Russia, Norway and Switzerland) Rest of World – Countries outside Europe and North America (Africa, Asia, Central America, Middle East, Oceania, South America) VFR - Visiting Friends and Relatives Miscellaneous includes visits where the main purpose is short-term study, shopping, looking for work, getting married, accompanying others and many more.

More The Insights & Statistics section of the VisitBritain website has much more detail on long term trends, data for individual markets and UK regions Refer to the ONS website for more on IPS methodology and UK outbound travel Make sure you get all the latest figures and reports by signing-up for VisitBritain's e-newsletter If you have any questions or feedback please contact the Research team at VisitBritain via vb.research@visitbritain.org