Monthly estimates from a practical perspective

Experiences from Finnish LFS

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010Kalle Sinivuori, Statistics Finland

Finnish LFS

Monthly sample size is 12 000 Non-response rate is around 20 % => that means slightly

less than 10 000 interviews per month Computer-assisted questionnaire Most interviews by telephone (2 % face-to face) Panel; five rotation groups Ministry of Employment’s job seeker register is also used

as supplementary data in calibration

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Dissemination of results

Main LFS results are published monthly, three weeks after the end of the reference month

More detailed results are published quarterly Annual publication includes yearly data and time series Database tables In addition

web articles on special themesother articles in periodicals and other publications

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Publishing monthly and quaterly figures

http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/tyti/tie_en.html Publication day (roughly) three weeks after the end of the

reference month In March, June, September and December: monthly and

quarterly publication together In other months: short publication, only monthly results Monthly: basic indicators (employment and unemployment by sex,

age and province; employees by type of employment; seasonally adjusted trends, etc.)

Quaterly: basic indicators + employment by industry; employment by province; hours worked by industyry, etc.

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Publishing monthly and quaterly figures

Monthly publication XML-based publication

including: 18 static html-tables, 4 figures and a quality description.

• All this in three languages• HTML- and pdf-formats

In addition: one database table (pc-axis)

Quaterly publication XML-based publication

including: 25 static html-tables, 4 figures and a quality description.

• All this in three languages• HTML- and pdf-formats

In addition: four database tables (pc-axis)

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Table 1. Examples of the accuracy of monthly estimates of different sizes

 Monthly estimate

Monthly estimate's95% confidence

interval

Standard error

Relativestandard

error  persons persons persons %

Employed

2 400 000 ± 27 800 14 200 0,6

1 200 000 ± 21 000 10 700 0,9

600 000 ± 15 300 7 800 1,3

300 000 ± 11 600 5 900 2,0

100 000 ± 6 700 3 400 3,4

50 000 ± 4 700 2 400 4,8

10 000 ± 2 900 1 500 15,0

Unemployed

230 000 ± 15 100 7 700 3,3

120 000 ± 11 800 6 000 5,0

90 000 ± 10 800 5 500 6,1

60 000 ± 9 000 4 600 7,7

30 000 ± 6 900 3 500 11,7

20 000 ± 5 100 2 600 13,0

10 000 ± 3 700 1 900 19,0

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Table 2. Examples of the accuracy of quarterly estimates of different sizes and comparison to the monthly estimates

 Monthly /Quarterlyestimate

Quarterly estimate's95%

confidence interval

Monthly estimate's95%

confidence interval

  persons persons persons

Employed

2 400 000 ± 16 100 ± 27 800

1 200 000 ± 12 500 ± 21 000

600 000 ± 8 800 ± 15 300

300 000 ± 6 700 ± 11 600

100 000 ± 4 700 ± 6 700

50 000 ± 3 900 ± 4 700

10 000 ± 2 000 ± 2 900

Unemployed

230 000 ± 8 800 ± 15 100

120 000 ± 6 900 ± 11 800

90 000 ± 6 100 ± 10 800

60 000 ± 5 100 ± 9 000

30 000 ± 3 500 ± 6 900

20 000 ± 3 100 ± 5 100

10 000 ± 2 400 ± 3 700

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Policies in publishing monthly figures

Additional information: especially trends adjusted for seasonal and random variation

Co-operation with the Ministry of Labour’s statistical unit => closer interaction started two years ago.

Pre-publication-day meetings => One day before publication we have a meeting where we discuss about possible questions coming from our audience (especially from the media).

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Monthly publishing during the recession

Recession in Finland began in late 2008 Annual change in GPD was -2,4 % in last quarter of 2008 Register based unemployment figures (Ministry of Labour)

reacted faster, from November 2008. LFS figures showed statistically significant annual changes

(upwards) starting from February 2009.

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Economic growth and employment; 1990/IQ - 2009/IVQ

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

year/ quarter

GPD Annual change

Employment, annual change

%

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Monthly publishing during the recession… continue

Despite small differences in annual changes, LFS and Ministry of Labour unemployment statistics have shown quite similar results during this recession.

Unemployment figures have grown and reasons are same in both statistics => unemployment figures have grown among men, 15 to 24-year-olds, in industries involving men (manufacturing, construction, wholesale) and in areas where these industries are strong (Southern and Western Finland).

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Discussion

Monthly or quartely publication ?=> I would say: monthly

Why ?• Question of profile in national LFS• Question of sample size• Question of quality => Finnish LFS is good enough for

monthly publishing.

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

e-mail: tyovoimatutkimus@stat.fi

http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/tyti/index_en.html

Thank you for your attention!