Monthly Chart Pack - Macquarie · 2021. 2. 19. · CoreLogic estimates that national settled sales have bounced back since April. Sales volume estimates increased a further 13.5%

Monthly Chart PackOur Insights. Your Story.

August 2020

218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth

Data as at August 2020

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

$7.1 Trillion

AUSTRALIAN SUPERANNUATION

$2.7 Trillion

AUSTRALIAN LISTED STOCKS

$2.0 Trillion

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

$1.0 Trillion

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ABS, ASX

10.5 millionNumber of dwellings

$1.85 trillionOutstanding mortgage debt

53.9%Household wealth held in housing

420,127Total sales p.a.

$274.3 billionGross value of sales p.a.

© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


The quarterly change in national dwelling values was -1.6%, led by a -2.0% decline across the capital city markets

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change – July 20

Source: CoreLogic© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 18 Jul 20

Combined Capitals Combined Rest of State

-2.1%-3.2%

-0.9%0.3%

-2.2%0.9%

-1.6%1.3%

0.7%-0.8%

-0.2%1.6%

-6.2%1.4%

-0.5%

-2.0%-0.1%

-1.6%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT

Combined capitalsCombined regionals

Australia


However, annual growth rates across most markets are still relatively strong, off the back of the upswing between July 2019 and April 2020

Annual change in dwelling values Annual change – July 20


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%


Combined Capitals Combined Rest of State

12.1%8.7%

3.8%2.4%

-2.5%5.9%

-2.2%7.2%

4.5%4.4%4.7%

3.0%-8.9%

10.3%1.5%

7.9%3.9%

7.1%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT


Australia


Since March, upper quartile dwelling market values have been most affected by the pandemic, particularly across Sydney and Melbourne


Change in quartile dwelling values, Greater Capital City Regions – End of March to July 2020

-0.1%

-1.3%

-2.5%

-1.2%

-2.3%

-5.2%

-0.2%

0.2%

-1.5%

0.9%0.6%

0.8%

-1.6%-1.9%

-2.2%

1.2% 1.2%

0.2%

1.3%

0.2%

-0.6%

0.7%

1.8%

0.8%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th

SYD MELB BRIS ADL PER HOB DAR ACT


The ACT market is proving to be resilient amid the pandemic, with the third-highest annual growth rate of the capital city regions

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values

© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-2.5%-2.2%

6.3%7.2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Perth Hobart Darwin ACT

12.1%

8.7%

3.8%2.4%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide


The CoreLogic daily home value index for the combined capital cities was -0.8% lower over the past 28 days to 1st of August.

The rate of decline seemed to stabilize slightly in the past month, but the resurgence of COVID-19 cases presents high uncertainty.

Rolling 28-day change in daily home value

index, combined capitals


-0.8%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney

© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Source: CoreLogic

Sydney dwelling values fell by -0.9%

in July

Dwelling values were down -2.1% in

the quarter

Sydney dwelling values are up by

12.1% in the past year

Sydney dwelling values are -4.4%

below the record high, which was in

July 2017

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Quarterly Change Annual Change


Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne


Melbourne dwelling values fell by

-1.2% in July

Dwelling values fell -3.2% in the

quarter

Melbourne dwelling values are up by


Melbourne dwelling values are -3.5%

from the record high, which was in

March 2020

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%




Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane


Brisbane dwelling values fell by -0.4%

in July

Dwelling values declined -0.9% in the

quarter

Brisbane dwelling values are up by


Brisbane dwelling values are -0.9%


April 2020

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%




Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide


Adelaide dwelling values increased

0.1% in July

Dwelling values increased 0.3% in the

quarter

Adelaide dwelling values were up by


Adelaide dwelling values are -0.1%


May 2020

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%




Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth


Perth dwelling values were down

-0.6% in July

Dwelling values decreased -2.2% in

the quarter

Perth dwelling values are down by

-2.5% in the past year

Perth dwelling values are now -22.3%


June 2014

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%




Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart


Hobart dwelling values fell

-0.2% in July

Dwelling values increased 0.9% in the

quarter

Hobart dwelling values are up by


Hobart dwelling values are 0.2%


June 2020

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%




Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin


Darwin dwelling values declined

-0.3% in July

Dwelling values fell -1.6% in the

quarter

Darwin dwelling values are down by

-2.2% in the past year

Darwin dwelling values are -31.4%


May 2014

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%




Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - ACT


ACT dwelling values increased 0.6% in

July

Dwelling values were up 1.3% in the

quarter

ACT dwelling values were up by


The ACT dwelling market is currently

at a record high value

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%




0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-16 Jul-18 Jul-20

CoreLogic estimates that national settled sales have bounced back since April. Sales volume estimates increased a further 13.5% over July

Source: CoreLogic

Decade average

Monthly sales with six month moving average, National

Note: recent months are modelled estimates, and are therefore subject to revision

Annual change in sales volumes

21.4%12.0%

7.5%-3.6%

5.5%-8.7%

6.6%13.0%

6.7%6.0%

8.4%5.8%

11.6%-2.7%

-14.3%

11.3%6.8%

9.6%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VIC

Regional QLDRegional SA

Regional WARegional TASRegional NT


National

Note: recent months of sales volumes are modelled estimates, and are subject to revision


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20

National sales volumes and consumer sentiment

Source: CoreLogic, Westpac/Melbourne Institute© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Note: recent months of sales volumes are modelled estimates, and are subject to revision

Consumer confidence started to decline off the back of a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, which is likely to dampen sales volumes in the coming months

Consumer sentiment index (RHS)Monthly sales volumes (LHS)


Annual growth in rent values fell to 0.6%, and declined -0.7% since March. Rent values are expected to fall further in Melbourne amid lockdown conditions

Annual change in rental rates - National Annual change in rental rates


0.6%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 18 Jul 20 -1.3%-0.7%

0.6%2.4%

2.9%-1.0%-0.7%

1.8%

2.7%2.3%

1.4%4.3%

5.0%3.8%

-2.9%

0.0%2.4%

0.6%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra





National


Nationally, dwelling value falls have so far been larger than rent value falls, which has led to a slight increase in rent yields of 3 basis points over July

Gross rental yields - National Gross rental yields as at July-20


3.76%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 18 Jul 20 2.9%3.2%

4.4%4.4%4.4%

4.8%5.9%

4.6%

4.5%4.5%

5.2%5.8%

6.3%5.2%

6.9%

3.5%4.9%

3.8%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra





National


Median days on market increased to 49 days across the capital cities in the 3 months to July, up from 42 days in June

Median days on market Median days on market July 2019 v July 2020


These charts show the median days on market over 3 month rolling periods. Please note that CoreLogic have made significant improvements to listings data, which help paint a more accurate and consistent picture of real estate listing activity. These additions have resulted in a revised view of the historical days on market series to ensure comparability across time.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Combined capitals Combined regionals

53

50

52

51

65

23

70

62

70

53

59

91

81

48

72

53

63

56

45

43

58

50

61

30

72

53

67

58

70

107

95

61

124

49

69

55

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

ACT

Regional NSW

Regional VIC

Regional QLD

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional TAS

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

NationalJul-20

Jul-19


However, the typical discount offered over the month eased from 3.6% in June to 3.5% in July across the capitals

Median vendor discount Median vendor discount July 2019 v July 2020


These charts show median vendor discounting over 3 month rolling periods. Please note that CoreLogic have made significant improvements to listings data, which help paint a more accurate and consistent picture of real estate listing activity. These additions have resulted in a revised view of the historical vendor discounting series to ensure comparability across time.

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%


Combined capitals Combined regionals

-4.3%

-4.1%

-3.8%

-3.6%

-5.4%

-3.0%

-5.9%

-2.9%

-4.2%

-3.8%

-4.6%

-4.8%

-7.4%

-4.1%

-3.1%

-4.2%

-4.4%

-4.3%

-3.1%

-3.2%

-3.7%

-3.5%

-4.3%

-3.6%

-5.9%

-2.3%

-3.5%

-3.5%

-4.5%

-5.9%

-6.7%

-3.4%

-4.8%

-3.5%

-4.0%

-3.7%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

ACT

Regional NSW

Regional VIC

Regional QLD

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional TAS

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

Jul-20 Jul-19


At the 28 days ending 26th of July, new listings had climbed to be 1.0% higher than the equivalent period in 2019

New Listings, rolling 28-day count, national



However, as sales volumes continued to recover, listings were strongly absorbed and fell a further -4.3% over the monthTotal listings, rolling 28-day count, national



New listings are now higher than the equivalent period last year across Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and the ACT.

However, Melbourne is the only market with a year-on-year rise in total listings.

Source: CoreLogic. Data is a year-over-year comparison for the 28 days ending 26th of July

1.0%

8.9%

-10.3%

32.2%

7.0%

-6.2%

-6.0%

10.3%

-23.9%

-40.1%

2.2%

-5.9%

-4.5%

-13.2%

-25.8%

-14.5%

-9.2%

-20.8%

National

Combined Capital Cities

Combined Regional

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Rest of NSW

Rest of Vic

Rest of Qld.

Rest of SA

Rest of WA

Rest of Tas

Rest of NT

New listings, change from equivalent period last year

-15.2%

-12.5%

-18.1%

-3.1%

3.2%

-20.4%

-17.5%

-26.7%

-25.1%

-30.0%

-28.4%

-21.2%

-15.3%

-17.8%

-12.1%

-16.2%

-25.9%

-19.6%

Total listings, change from equivalent period last year


Weekly clearance rates, combined capital cities

The typical clearance rate over July was 55.9%, down from 58.9% in June


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20

Au

ctio

n v

olu

mes

Cle

aran

ce R

ate

Number of auctions (RHS) Auction clearance rate (LHS) Auction clearance rate, 4 week average (LHS)


The Melbourne clearance rate fell amid the second lockdown and a higher proportion of withdrawn auctions, while the Sydney clearance rate stabilized at around 62%

Weekly clearance rates, Sydney v Melbourne

Source: CoreLogic


The weaker clearance rate results stem from an increase in withdrawn properties, as onsite auctions are once again suspended in Melbourne


* As a % of all auction results * As a % of all ‘sold’ auction results

Auction outcomes, combined capital cities

56.0%

27.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%31

/07/

2015

31/0

7/20

16

31/0

7/20

17

31/0

7/20

18

31/0

7/20

19

31/0

7/20

20

% withdrawn results from auction

82.7%

44.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

31/0

7/20

15

31/0

7/20

16

31/0

7/20

17

31/0

7/20

18

31/0

7/20

19

31/0

7/20

20

% Sold Prior to Auction


Monthly number of dwellings approved for construction, national (Seasonally adjusted)

Dwelling approvals declined a further 4.9% over June to 12,213 - the lowest volume of approvals since July 2012

Source: CoreLogic, ABS© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


Houses Units

3409

4607

2294

9331204

240

2903

4600

2043

8901063

214

New SouthWales

Victoria Queensland WesternAustralia

SouthAustralia

Tasmania

Monthly dwelling approvals by state, seasonally adjusted

May 20 Jun 20


The value of finance secured for the purpose of housing saw its largest monthly decline in the history of the series in May 2020.

Investor lending declined 15.6%, while owner occupier finance fell 10.2%.

The sharp drop in secured finance is likely a reflection of the shock to sales volumes in April.


Monthly value of new finance commitments, total ($ billions)

Portion of new lending for investment housing (excluding refinance)

$3

$5

$7

$9

$11

$13

$15

$17M

ay 0

4

May

06

May

08

May

10

May

12

May

14

May

16

May

18

May

20

Owner occupiers

Investors

25.0%

36.4%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

May

04

May

06

May

08

May

10

May

12

May

14

May

16

May

18

May

20


Through May, first home buyer participation as a portion of owner-occupiers fell slightly from April, but remains relatively high


First home buyers as a portion of owner-occupier finance commitments (values)

30.1%

26.7%

32.8%

29.7%

24.4%

39.0%

22.4%

47.9%

33.9%

Aust

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

May 2020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas


In May, the portion of new housing finance to investors fell to a new record low of 25.0%


Investors as a portion of total value of lending (excluding refinancing)

25.0% 29.4% 24.5% 20.8% 21.6%15.4%

21.2%13.3%

20.8%

Aust NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

May 2020


The cash rate target was held at 0.25% for August, though the RBA has reported the actual cash rate has been closer to 13 or 14 basis points since late April

Source: CoreLogic, RBA© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

7.25%

3.00%

4.75%

2.50%

1.50%

0.25%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Aug 00 Aug 05 Aug 10 Aug 15 Aug 20

RBA Cash Rate


Lending conditions were relatively unchanged from the December 2019 to March 2020 quarter, as economic conditions started to slow in Australia

3.9%3.6%

3.4%3.1%

7.4%

6.8%6.4%

6.1%

Jun 2019 Sep 2019 Dec 2019 Mar 2020

Interest rates for new loans funded

Weighted average variable rate of new loans funded

Weighted average assessment rate used for serviceability

20.4%

18.3%17.7% 18.0%

Jun 2019 Sep 2019 Dec 2019 Mar 2020

Portion of new loans funded on interest-only terms

* Data on loans funded on an LVR ≥ 95% were unavailable from APRA, as such these figures are a derived estimate

37.8%

38.3%

39.1% 39.2%

Jun 2019 Sep 2019 Dec 2019 Mar 2020

Portion of new loans funded with an LVR 80% ≤ *

Source: CoreLogic, APRA


Disclaimer

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland DataBased on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2020. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relat ionto the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.South Australian DataThis information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.New South Wales DataContains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.Victorian DataThe State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian DataBased on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2020) trading as Landgate.Australian Capital Territory DataThe Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.Tasmanian DataThis product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; andb) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

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Monthly Chart Pack - Macquarie · 2021. 2. 19. · CoreLogic estimates that national settled sales have bounced back since April. Sales volume estimates increased a further 13.5%