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8/3/2019 Montgomery County, Maryland - 2020 Economic Outlook
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Montgomery County Council
Montgomery County, MarylandEconomic Outlook, 2020
November 8, 2011
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy
George Mason University
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15 Largest Metro Areas
GRP Percent Change 2007-10
4
6
8
10
12%
-6
-4
-2
02
Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change Since 200015 Largest Job Markets
100
200
300
400
500
000s)
-500-400
-300
-200
-100
(
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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35%
40%
45%
50%
Share of Washington
Area Economy1970-2010
Northern Virginia
Suburban MD
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
D.C.
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2010 Structure of theGreater Washington Economy
Non-LocalBusiness
12.0 %
Other Federal
15.7 %
Local ServingActivities
36.6%
34.9% Procurement19.2%
Other: Health/Education, Media
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Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
40
6080
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by Sector
Sept 2010 Sept 2011Washington MSA
2
3
012
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total = 8,500
1
0
-4-2
5
-4
-5
1
-
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
ManufacturingInformation
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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2010 Structure of the
Montgomery County Economy$69.5 billion (2010$)Non-Local Business
11.2 %
Other Federal
16.5%
Other LocalBusiness
42.2%
29.7% Procurement13.2%
Local
Hosp.3.8%
Total Local
Business 46.0%
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Annual Job Change
Suburban Maryland
30
40
5060
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011
-40
-30-20
-10
0
1020
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Job Change by Sector
Sept 2010 Sept 2011Suburban Maryland
0
5
2-2
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total - 3,400
0
0
-10
0
0
-4
1
-
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
ManufacturingInformation
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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8
10
12
14
11.0 DC
9.1 U.S.
6.3 SMD
Unemployment Rate
0
2
4
6
6.1 MSA4.9 - NVA
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
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Characteristics MC FX WMSA
Economic Growth* 87.3% 132.5% 99.5%
Job Growth 15.4% 57.5% 31.7%
Unemployment 1990 2.5% 2.0% 3.2%
Comparative Economic PerformanceMontgomery & Fairfax Counties, Washington Area: 1990-2010
. . .
Federal Spending, 1990 $5.8b $5.6b $42.6 b
Payroll, 1990 $1.9b $1.0b $17.1b
Procurement, 1990 $2.0b $3.1b $12.6b
Federal Spending, 2010 $20.7b $33.5b $169.0b
Payroll, 2010 $5.1b $3.3b $42.7b
Procurement, 2010 $9.2b $25.1b $81.2b
*gross county product
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Characteristics 1990 2010 % Change
Population 761,671 971,777 27.6
Montgomery CountyGrowth Trends: 1990-2010
e an ge . . .Dependency Ratio 1:2.23 1:1.75 - 21.5
Job Growth 403,812 465,963 15.4
Jobs/Person 5.3/10 4.8/10 - 9.4
GCP* $33.36b $62.49b 87.3
Average Salary (2010$s) $44,702 $67,161 50.2
*gross county product
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Sector Number of Jobs Percent
Professional and Bus. Services 109,035 23.4
Government 86,299 18.5
Education and Health Services 63,250 13.6
Subtotal 258,584 55.5
Retail Trade* 59,654 12.8
MC Employment Structure, 2010
Leisure and Hospitality 37,591 8.1Financial Services 32,623 7.0
Other Services 25,434 5.5
Construction 24,806 5.3Information Services 14,685 3.2
Manufacturing 12,585 2.7
Total 465,963 100.0*includes transportation and utilities
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Metric 2020 Increase Percent
Gross Regional Product $577.5 b $152.5 b 35.9
Metro Area Job Growth 4.292 m 503.1k 13.3
Replacement Job Openings 901.4k 23.8
MC Gross County Product $94.0 b $24.5 b 35.2
Economic Forecast, 2010-2020
MC Job Growth 565,133 92,514 19.6
Prof. & Bus. Services 140,826 31,791 29.2
Education and Health Ser. 81,799 18,549 29.3
Subtotal* 222,625 50,340Other Major Sectors** 183,938 29,264 18.9
*37% of job base projected to generate 55.7% of Montgomery Countys new jobs.**retail trade, financial services, leisure and hospitality services, construction
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2020 Structure of the
Montgomery County Economy$94.0 billion (2010$)Non-Local Business
17.3 %
Federal Procurement
Other Federal
13.4%
Other LocalBusiness
38.4%
. .
LocalHosp.
4.5%
Total Local
Business 43.9%
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Having a sufficient supply and quality of labor tosupport future job growth;
Having sufficient housing resourcesinnumber, variety of types, and range of costs
Challenges Facing Montgomery County
Increasing share of the countys workforcethereby reducing the economys dependenceon commuters to fill the countys jobs; and,
Being competitive with other area jurisdictionsin terms of location and operating costs and
business friendly reputation.
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Income Single-family Multi-family Total Percent
Less than $50K 3,897 12,846 16,743 41.8
Housing Montgomery CountysFuture Workforce, Low Forecast
$50K - $100K 5,317 10,986 16,303 40.7$100K -$150K 3,497 2,327 5,824 14.6
$150K + 990 150 1,140 2.9
Total Housing Units 13,701 26,309 40,010 100.0
COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,500
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Income Single-family Multi-family Total Percent
Less than $50K 5,995 19,762 25,757 41.8
-
Housing Montgomery CountysFuture Workforce, High Forecast
, , , .
$100K -$150K 5,379 3,580 8,959 14.6
$150K + 1,523 230 1,753 2.8
Total Housing Units 21,077 40,474 61,551 100.0
COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,500
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cra.gmu.edu
GMU/Cardinal Bank 20t AnnualEconomic Forecasting Conference
Tysons Ritz CarltonJanuary 13, 2012