Monitoring Impacts of Recreational Marijuana …7 Monitoring Impacts of Recreational Marijuana Legalization 2019 Update Report 1.4 Age at First Use – Adults Among adults who had

Monitoring Impacts of Recreational Mari juana Legal izat ion 2019 Update Report

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Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................................. 2

Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 3

1.1 Current Use - Students ............................................................................................................................... 4

1.2 Current Use – Adults ................................................................................................................................... 5

1.3 Age at First Use – Students ......................................................................................................................... 6

1.4 Age at First Use – Adults ............................................................................................................................. 7

1.5 Access – Students ....................................................................................................................................... 8

1.6 Traffic Fatalities ........................................................................................................................................... 9

1.7 Poisonings ................................................................................................................................................. 10

2.1 Marijuana-Related Drug or Narcotic Incidents ......................................................................................... 11

2.2 Drug or Narcotic Incidents ........................................................................................................................ 12

2.3 Marijuana Quantities Seized ..................................................................................................................... 13

2.4 Incident Locations ..................................................................................................................................... 14

2.5 Criminal Activities Involving Marijuana .................................................................................................... 15

2.6 Drug-only DUI Arrests ............................................................................................................................... 16

2.7 Marijuana-related Convictions ................................................................................................................. 17

2.8 Suspensions or Expulsions from Schools – Students ................................................................................ 18

3.1 Recreational Marijuana Revenues with 25-Percent Excise Tax ................................................................ 19

4.1 Annual Per Capita Sales by County ........................................................................................................... 20

4.2 Cities with Prohibitions or Moratoria on Retail Sales ............................................................................... 21

4.3 Counties with Prohibitions or Moratoria on Retail Sales .......................................................................... 22

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Introduction In 2012 Washington Initiative 502 (I-502), which legalized the sale, purchase and use of marijuana for people aged 21 and over, was on the November general ballot and passed. The initiative also created a system to regulate, tax and distribute marijuana throughout the state. The Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board oversees the implementation and compliance for I-502.1 Below is an overview of the requirements put forth in I-502.

• Age: o Must be 21 or older to purchase and/or possess marijuana.

• Purchase Limits: o Those 21 and older may purchase up to one ounce of “useable” marijuana; o Up to 16 ounces of marijuana-infused edibles in a solid form; o 72 ounces in liquid form; and o Seven grams of marijuana concentrates.

• Buying and Selling: o Marijuana can only be sold or purchased from a state-licensed retail store. o No one under the age of 21 is allowed on the premises.

• Public Use: o Marijuana may not be used in public.

• Driving: o It is illegal to drive while under the influence of marijuana (greater than five nanograms

of active THC per milliliter of blood). • Travel:

o It is illegal to take marijuana outside of the state of Washington.

In February 2015, a baseline report on monitoring the impacts of recreational marijuana legalization was released by the Office of Financial Management. The report was updated in 2016, and again in 2017. This marks the fourth report in the series. This report includes updated and additional data, and in a few instances, modifies some of the previous measures. Certain measures previously included that are no longer available are noted at the end of the report.

1 For more information, please visit https://lcb.wa.gov.

https://lcb.wa.gov/

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1.1 Current Use - Students The Washington State Healthy Youth Survey is a bi-annual survey administered to adolescents in Washington state.2 The survey covers safety and violence, risk and protective factors, health and health-related behaviors and alcohol/drug use.

Among 6th, 8th, 10th and 12th graders asked, “Have you used marijuana in the past 30 days?” There were no significant trends seen in the responses over time. Between grades, though, there are differences in use. About one-fourth of 12th graders are using marijuana, but only 1 percent of 8th graders have used marijuana in the last 30 days. This indicates that marijuana use steadily increases once students reach high school.

Source: Washington State Health Youth Survey

2 For more information on the Healthy Youth Survey, please visit https://www.askhys.net/.

22%23%

26%27% 27%

26% 26%

18%19%

20%19%

18%17%

18%

7%8%

10%9%

10%

6%7%

1% 1%2%

1% 1% 1% 1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Perc

ent o

f Stu

dent

s

Survey Year

12th Grade 10th Grade 8th Grade 6th Grade

https://www.askhys.net/

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1.2 Current Use – Adults The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System is a health-related survey administered by the state and coordinated nationally by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. BRFSS data is collected through telephone interviews, and participants are asked questions regarding health-related risk behaviors, chronic health conditions, and the use of preventative services.3

Current marijuana use among adults has increased each year for all age categories. The most significant increase in use is among those ages 18 to 24. While only 16 percent of 18-24 year olds reported using marijuana in the last 30 days in 2011, this increased to 28 percent in 2017. In addition, those who reported being 65 or older are also reporting significantly higher marijuana use, though this may be related to the increase in population for those aged 65 and older.4

Source: Washington State Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System

3 For more information on BRFSS please visit https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/index.html. 4 For more information on Washington’s population please visit https://www.ofm.wa.gov/washington-data-research/population-demographics/population-estimates/estimates-april-1-population-age-sex-race-and-hispanic-origin

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Ages 18-24 16% 14% 19% 21% 21% 27% 28%Ages 25-34 16% 12% 15% 14% 20% 20% 23%Ages 35-44 7% 9% 8% 10% 11% 12% 18%Ages 45-64 6% 6% 9% 9% 11% 13% 13%Ages 65+ 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Ages 18-24 Ages 25-34 Ages 35-44 Ages 45-64 Ages 65+

https://www.cdc.gov/brfss/index.html

https://www.ofm.wa.gov/washington-data-research/population-demographics/population-estimates/estimates-april-1-population-age-sex-race-and-hispanic-origin



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1.3 Age at First Use – Students Among 12th graders asked, “How old were you the first time you smoked marijuana?” there was an increase among students who reported first using at age 16 between 2014 and 2016, while other age categories saw a small decline.


2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Age 13 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.3%Age 14 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.3% 8.0% 6.4%Age 15 8.0% 8.0% 10.0% 11.0% 9.6% 9.3% 9.0%Age 16 9.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9.7% 9.3% 10.2%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

PERC

ENT

OF

STU

DEN

TS

SURVEY YEAR

Age 13 Age 14 Age 15 Age 16

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1.4 Age at First Use – Adults Among adults who had ever used marijuana, there have been no significant trends in age at first use for any of the age groups. The majority of adults who reported having ever used marijuana said their age at first use was between ages 14-17. This pattern was seen in each year between 2011 and 2017.

Source: Washington State Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System

13%

13%

16%

15%

14%

16%

15%

47%

45%

44%

46%

45%

43%

44%

24%

25%

25%

23%

23%

22%

23%

17%

17%

15%

17%

18%

19%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ages 13 and younger Ages 14-17 Ages 18-20 Ages 21 and over

8


1.5 Access – Students This measure includes, by convention, those answering “sort of hard,” “sort of easy” and “very easy” to the question “If you wanted to get some marijuana, how easy would it be to get some?” While access differs by grade level, each grade level saw a decline after 2012 in ease of access.


79% 81% 83% 82%

66% 64%61%

66%69%

72%69%

53%48% 49%

40% 39% 38%33%

21% 20% 21%

15% 14% 16% 14%

7% 5% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Perc

ent o

f Stu

dent

s

Survey Year

12th Grade 10th Grade 8th Grade 6th Grade

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1.6 Traffic Fatalities The Washington Traffic Safety Commission is Washington’s designated highway safety office, and has a goal of reducing traffic fatalities and serious injuries. Chapter 46.52.065 of the Revised Code of Washington requires that “a blood sample be taken from all drivers and all pedestrians who are killed in any traffic [crash] where the death occurred within four hours.” A similar law does not exist for surviving drivers involved in fatal crashes, though all drivers suspected of being under the influence can be tested.

The chart below shows of those drivers involved in fatal crashes who were tested, the percentage that tested positive for Delta-9 THC in some form (whether Delta-9 THC alone, or with other drugs or alcohol). In addition, of those who tested positive for Delta-9 THC, the number of those who tested positive for Delta-9 THC and other drugs or alcohol. The percent of those tested and found positive for Delta-9 THC plus alcohol or other drugs seems to be slowly declining each year, though the number of people testing positive for Delta-9 THC in some form is increasing annually.

Source: Washington Traffic Safety Commission

78% 80%75%

78%

64%

79%74%

71% 70% 69%

8% 7%10% 9% 10% 10%

22% 21% 22%26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percent of Tested Drivers Positive for Delta-9 THC plus Other Alcohol or Drugs

Percent of Tested Drivers Positive for Delta-9 THC

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1.7 Poisonings Since 2014, the number of calls for all ages to the Washington Poison Center for marijuana-related incidents has increased. The most drastic increase though, is being seen for those aged 12 and under. Since 2014 there has been a 166% increase in calls for those aged 12 and under, and a large portion of these calls are for children 5 and under. The Washington Poison Center notes that 61 percent of these calls are for cannabis alone, and another 37 percent are for cannabis and another substance (includes alcohol).

Source: Washington Poison Center

47

65

95

35

6067

97

24

61 61

118

20

114

62

140

31

125

94

183

37

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Ages 12 or Younger Ages 13-20 Ages 21-59 Ages 60 and Older

Num

ber o

f Cal

ls

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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2.1 Marijuana-Related Drug or Narcotic Incidents The National Incident Based Reporting System was created to improve the overall quality of crime data collected by local law enforcement. NIBRS collects more data than previous crime databases, as it collects information on the victims, known offenders, relationships, etc. Local law enforcement submits their information via NIBRS, and this information is then available in the national database, as well as at the state-level. The Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs5 houses Washington’s NIBRS data.

2016 and 2017 saw slight increases in marijuana-related Drug/Narcotic Violations. In 2018, the number of marijuana-related drug or narcotic incidents returned to a lower level. The decline indicates that there is likely no significant trend in these violations, and that overtime the number of incidents is remaining relatively stable.

Source: Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs (does not include Washington State Patrol data)

5 https://www.waspc.org/crime-statistics-nibrs-

2,32

6

2,31

3

2,59

9

2,57

9

2,36

4

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Drug/Narcotics Violations

Num

ber o

f Inc

iden

ts

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

https://www.waspc.org/crime-statistics-nibrs-

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2.2 Drug or Narcotic Incidents The number of incidents6 involving marijuana decreased by 63 percent from 2012 to 2015. In contrast, during that same time period, incidents involving amphetamines or methamphetamines increased by 72 percent while those involving heroin increased by 41 percent. This trend has continued through 2018, with incidents involving amphetamines or methamphetamines, and those involving heroin both increasing by about 49 percent since 2016.


6 *As defined by the FBI, an “incident” occurs when any law enforcement officer investigates a scene or situation, whether that investigation results in an arrest or not. Incidents involving multiple illicit drugs or other criminal activities are only counted once, and are included in whichever category is listed first by the local law enforcement agency. The order used by those agencies is not hierarchical.

6,33

6

2,37

6

2,27

6

894

1,06

6

3,28

9 4,11

3

2,68

9 3,40

1

2,58

9

983

1,06

3 2,12

4

3,98

5

2,32

6

3,68

6

3,09

0

744 962 1,

619

321

2,31

3

4,08

1

3,19

9

774 1,02

4

2,59

7

289

2,59

9

5,41

3

4,25

5

848 1,

703

3,51

1

427

3,07

7

7,57

5

6,31

6

994 1,

684

0

436

2,77

1

8,89

4

7,03

1

1,08

5 1,81

6

0

567

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

13


2.3 Marijuana Quantities Seized Incidents where the quantity of marijuana seized was reported in grams (or in a unit that could be converted into grams) are shown below.7 For 2012−18, the most frequent number of seizures continues to be for quantities of 3.5 grams (an eighth of an ounce) or less. Between 2012 and 2015, though, the number of seizures decreased. Seizures started to increase beginning in 2016.


7 *Incidents involving multiple illicit drugs or other criminal activities are included only if marijuana is listed first by the local law enforcement agency. The order used by those agencies is not hierarchical.

3,14

6

1,27

2

1,11

2

1,13

9

1,17

7

1,63

7

1,19

9

679

247

222

223

281

351

280

687

251

231

205

260

340

325

486

190

160

192

226

288

280

454

248

233

271

306

461

437

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f Inc

iden

ts

0.1-3.5 Grams 3.6-7.0 Grams 7.1-14.0 Grams 14.1-28.0 Grams 28.0+ Grams

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2.4 Incident Locations Marked decreases were seen in nearly all locations where there were incidents involving marijuana. Since 2012, each location has experienced a downward trend in incidents, with a small spike seen in 2017 and 2018. The slight increase may be attributed to increased National Incident-Based Reporting System reporting among several counties.


2,46

2

970

707

258

1,48

4

455

768

363 53

3

345 56

0

120

625

312 45

4

361 46

1

113

616

309 45

1

311 51

2

114

626

321

361 48

8 587

132

750

467

488

540 68

0

152

669

362 49

9

477 63

3

131

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

15


2.5 Criminal Activities Involving Marijuana Between 2012 and 2015 the number of incidents including Possessing or Consuming Marijuana decreased by 65 percent. Since that time, the number of incidents involving marijuana has remained relatively stable.

*Incidents involving multiple illicit drugs or other criminal activities are included only if marijuana is listed first by the local law enforcement agency. The order used by those agencies is not hierarchical.


5,78

6

327127 58 38

2,37

3

194

84 17 21

2,10

3

126

62 14 18

1,99

9

198

47 19 50

2,27

8

153

79 29 60

2,68

3

139

108

18 129

2,39

7

131

130

19 94

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Possessing orConsuming

Distributing or Selling Cultivating orManufacturing

Transporting Other

Num

ber o

f Inc

iden

ts

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

16


2.6 Drug-only DUI Arrests Drug-only driving under the influence (DUI) arrests do not differentiate marijuana from other drugs. After declining for several years, these arrests moved from a low of 1,222 in 2015 to a high of 2,029 in 2018, for an overall increase of about 40 percent during those four years.

Source: Washington State Patrol TAS

1,7101,614

1,348

1,229 1,2221,327

1,605

2,029

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

17


2.7 Marijuana-related Convictions Since hitting a low in 2014 convictions for the manufacturing, delivery or possession with intent to deliver marijuana,8 both in-prison and nonprison, have remained relatively stable. From 2011 to 2013, the only convictions for the manufacturing, delivery or possession with intent to deliver marijuana9 were first-time convictions.

*Conviction data are based on a hierarchy where the offense that has the longest confinement term is considered the “most serious.” These data represent convictions where the most serious offense was for manufacturing, delivery or possession with intent to deliver marijuana.

Source: Washington State Caseload Forecast Council, Statistical Summary of Adult Felony Sentencing

8 RCW 69.50.401(2) 9 RCW 69.50.408

7348 43

13 10 15 7 7

502

341

186

9880

6488 92

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8

In-prison Nonprison

18


2.8 Suspensions or Expulsions from Schools – Students Since the 2015-2016 school year, the rate of enrolled students who experience some type of exclusionary event (either suspension or expulsion) has remained relatively stable. It is important to stress that the number of students facing any type of exclusionary event is fairly small, with less than 4 percent of the total student population being expelled or suspended each school year since 2015. Of those who are suspended or expelled, the number of events that occurred because of a marijuana-related incident has remained stable, at just above 10 percent of all exclusionary events. This includes both long- and short-term suspensions.

Source: Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction

Any Expulsion or Suspension Marijuana Related Suspension or Expulsion2015 44,620 4,6832016 42,702 4,1522017 42,022 4,4262018 45,978 4,676

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2015

2016

2017

2018

19


3.1 Recreational Marijuana Revenues with 25-Percent Excise Tax Reports from the Liquor and Cannabis Board show that sales and excise taxes rose dramatically during the first few months of legalization in 2014.10 Between 2015 and 2016, total sales more than doubled. Since then, sales have increased at a lower rate.

Source: Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board

10 In past reports, we have reported this measure by month, but will now show it annually due to the large amount of data.

65

534

1,10

9

1,24

4

16

129

258 28

3

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2014 2015 2016 2017

Sale

s in

Mill

ions

Total Annual Sales Total Annual Excise Tax Due

20


4.1 Annual Per Capita Sales by County Retail sales of recreational marijuana sold per 1,000 persons living within the county where the sales occurred between July 1, 2018 and June 30, 2019 are mapped below.11 It is worth noting that counties that border Idaho, where marijuana remains illegal, are seeing higher sales per 1,000 people than other nearby counties.

Source: Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board and OFM Population Data

11 Counties without color have not reported data

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4.2 Cities with Prohibitions or Moratoria on Retail Sales As of June 2019, 79 cities in Washington state have prohibited the sales of recreational marijuana. In addition, another 14 cities have temporary zoning in place that may expire. For more information on the cities that have prohibited retail sales, as well as for additional zoning ifnormation, please visit http://mrsc.org.

Source: Municipal Research Services Center

http://mrsc.org/Home/Explore-Topics/Legal/Regulation/Marijuana-Regulation-in-Washington-State.aspx

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4.3 Counties with Prohibitions or Moratoria on Retail Sales As of June 2019, there are seven counties that have prohibited the retail sales of recreational marijuana. In addition, another five have temporary zoning in place that may expire.

Source: Municipal Research and Services Center

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Office of Financial Management Forecasting and Research Division

Leah Landon, Forecast and Research Analyst/SOPB Coordinator

Statistical Analysis Center

Contributors:

Steve Cleverdon, Senior Forecast and Research Analyst Economic, Revenue and Labor Forecasts

Keri-Anne Jetzer, Forecast and Research Analyst

Statistical Analysis Center

Dennis McDermott, Senior Forecast and Research Analyst Healthcare Research Center

Thea Mounts, Senior Forecast and Research Manager

Human Services, Social Services, Criminal Justice and Health

Jim Schmidt, Senior Forecast and Research Manager Economic, Revenue and Labor Forecasts, and Higher Education

Documents

Monitoring Impacts of Recreational Marijuana …7 Monitoring Impacts of Recreational Marijuana Legalization 2019 Update Report 1.4 Age at First Use – Adults Among adults who had