Monitoring anthropogenic CO2emissions with Copernicus

Views from the UNFCCC

Joanna Post, UNFCCC secretariat

• The Convention and the Paris Agreement

• Relevant decisions and conclusions (some)

• Reporting under the Paris Agreement

• Global stocktake

• Moving forward with Copernicus…

Outline

Observations Research Assessment Policy

PARTIES

SBSTA / SBICOP/ CMA/ CMPWMO

Article 4.1(g) Commitments

Article 5 Research and systematic observation

SBSTA Research and systematic observationAgenda item- Research dialogue- Earth Information Day

Climate services

Observations provide the foundation for commitments and decision making on climate change

Action(Mitigation & Adaptation)

Means of Implementation (Technology transfer,

capacity building finance)

Enhanced transparency framework

2024 (+every 2 years) (LDCs & SIDS as

soon as possible)

Global Stocktake

2023, 2028, 2033…

NDCs

2020, 2025, 2030…

Adaptation communication

Long-term low-GHG emission strategy

AMBITION

5 year cycle

Reported individual effortsTransparency to build trust and confidence.• GHG Inventory• Progress on NDCs• Support provided and

mobilized• Support needed and

received• Adaptation• Loss and damage• Response measures

Communicated individual efforts

In 2020:2025 end date -> new NDC

2030 end date -> revised NDC

IPCC assessments

Inform updating NDCs in a nationally determined manner

(progression clause)Action at national level!

Collective progress towards purpose and long-term global goals

Paris Agreement ambition cycle

Observation / ECVs / Climate services vital to support the Paris Agreement bottom-up, pledge and review architecture

COP Decision 19/CP.22 (2016): GCOS Implementation Plan Earth Information Day 2016

SBSTA 47 (2017) FCCC/SBSTA/2017/759. The SBSTA noted the increasing capability to systematically monitor greenhouse gas concentrations and emissions, through in situ as well as satellite observations, and its relevance in support of the Paris Agreement.

SBSTA 50 (2019) FCCC/SBSTA/2019/2 59. The SBSTA welcomed the adoption by the WMO Executive Council at its seventieth session of the science implementation plan for a new IG3IS. The SBSTA recognized that IG3IS is an innovative science-based framework that supports the needs of a broad range of users by combining atmospheric observations with other sources of information to enhance understanding of GHG concentrations and fluxes at multiple

spatial scales, and encouraged the use of the framework.

64. The SBSTA urged Parties to enhance the development of climate servicesc) Making use of the value chain from observations to climate services to support and strengthen project development and decision-making on adaptation and mitigation, including by sharing knowledge and information through global, regional, national and local mechanisms

Relevant decisions and conclusions

SBSTA 51 (2019) FCCC/SBSTA/2019/5 Earth Information Day 2019

35. The SBSTA welcomed the work of the scientific community, Parties, climate service providers, and space agencies in collecting, managing and openly sharing data and processed data products for addressing climate change and current and future climate risk.

The SBSTA urged Parties and relevant organizations to continue to establish and support open data sharing, and the development of openly available, relevant and accessible data products, particularly for supporting and monitoring adaptation and mitigation.

40. Recalling the conclusions of SBSTA 47, the SBSTA welcomed the continued work of the Joint CEOS/CGMS Working Group on Climate in response to the GCOS implementation plan.

It recognized the systems approach of the constellation architecture, which combines satellite, in-situ and modelling components for emission estimates, for monitoring CO2 and CH4 from space.

It encouraged meaningful engagement among the space agencies, modellers and Parties in the implementation and use of the system.

See: unfccc.int/topics – science

Informal compilation of all mandates on systematic observationInformal compilation of all mandates on research

Relevant decisions and conclusions

A common framework with embedded flexibilities for developing countries that need it in the light of their capacities

National communications (NCs), Biennial update

reports (BUR), and REDD+ Forest Reference

Emission Level and/or Forest Reference Level

National communications, GHG Inventories, and

Biennial Reports (BRs)

Technical assessment of BURs and

Technical assessment of REDD+ FREL/FRL

Reviews of national communications, GHG

inventories, and Biennial reports

Facilitative Sharing of Views

Multilateral Assessment

Biennial Transparency Report

Technical Expert Review

Facilitative Multilateral Consideration

of Progress

Reporting under the Enhanced Transparency Framework

• GHG inventory (all shall)

• Progress in NDC (all shall)

• Support provided / mobilized (developed shall)

• Support needed / received (developing should)

• Adaptation (all should)

Reporting

Biennial Transparency Report

• GHG inventory

• Consideration of progress with and achievement of NDC

• Support provided (developed shall, and other Parties at their discretion)

• Identification of improvements

• Identification of capacity building needs

Review

Technical Expert Review • Facilitative multilateral

consideration of progress with respect to Parties efforts under Article 9

• Online Q&A

• Working group session –Party presentation and Q&A(all shall)

FMCP

* Specific flexibility provisions for those

developing countries that need it in light of their

capacities

* Specific discretions for LDCs and SIDs

with respect to timing

Architecture of the Enhanced Transparency Framework

Biennial update report (BUR) Paris Agreement

-Use of 1996 IPCC Guidelines

-Cover inventory year T-4

-Activity data should be updated

-Reporting at a summary level

-Key category analysis should be done

-Limited reporting on institutional arrangements (e.g. archiving, inventory as a continuous process). No specific requirements on QA/QC

-Shall report CO2, CH4 and N2O (using SAR values); encouraged to report other gases

-Should quantitively estimate uncertainty

-Use of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines

-Cover year T-2 (T-3 with flexibility*)

-Recalculations of previous data required

-Reporting tables to be finalized at CMA 3

-Key category analysis required (with flexibility*)

-Reporting on institutional arrangements required (e.g. planning, preparation and management). Shall develop a QA/QC plan (with flexibility*)

-Shall report basket of 7 gases (with flexibility*), using AR5 global warming potential values

-Shall quantitatively estimate uncertainty (with flexibility*)

This tables identifies selected key changes. See the Addendum to the Technical handbook for developing country Parties on

preparing for implementation of the enhanced transparency framework under the Paris Agreement for a complete listing

Key Changes in Paris Agreement: Developing Countries GHG Inventory

• In May 2019, the IPCC Plenary approved a Refinement to the Guidelines (in press), which outlines the important role of atmospheric observations and analysis to improve estimations of national GHG emissions

• The 2019 Refinement describes key components and steps to be applied when using atmospheric measurements and inverse models for comparison with inventory estimates (Chapter 6, Quality Assurance/Quality Control and Verification)

• BUT – refinement noted in SBSTA conclusions but not yet acknowledged by Parties as the resource to use for inventories

IPCC 2019 Refinement to 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Annual GHG inventory by developed countries (in BTR-years, may be stand-alone or part of BTR)

National communications

Parties may submit their national communication and BTR as a single report, in accordance with the ETF MPGs for information also covered by the national communication reporting guidelines.

In addition, Parties shall include in the report:

a) Supplemental chapters on research and systematic observation and on education, training and public awareness, in accordance with NC guidelines;

b) For those Parties that have not reported adaptation in BTRs, an additional chapter on adaptation, in accordance with the NC relevant guidelines.

REDD+ Forest Reference Emission Level and/or Forest Reference Level may be submitted; and the technical annex on REDD+ for those Parties seeking results-based payments (as annex to the BTR)

Standing reporting requirements on top of the Enhanced Transparency Framework

Biennial Update Reports and

Biennial Reports

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

First GSTNew/updated NDC New NDC

Biennial Transparency Reports

• The first biennial transparency reports (BTR) are due by 31 December 2024; the first reviews would start in 2025

• Decisions on outstanding issues were to be made by CMA 3 in November 2020; timing was deemed important to provide Parties and the secretariat sufficient time to finalize preparation for reporting (e.g. establishment of the necessary institutional arrangements in country to prepare the BTR and for the secretariat to develop the necessary tools and procedures (IT and non-IT related).

Timeline for Biennial Transparency Reports

Slide 13

1. Information collection and preparation 2021/2022 - 2023

• SBSTA/SBI joint contact group

• Sources of input

2. Technical assessment 2022 - 2023

• Technical dialogue guided by 2 co-facilitators

• Consider IPCC assessments

• Separate SBSTA-IPCC special events

3. Consideration of outputs 2023

• identify opportunities for enhancing efforts, challenges, good practices, and political messages

• HL events to communicate messages

SB Chairs were invited to provide guiding questions for each of the 3 stages aboveCMA 19/CMA.1, para 15 – After each GST - refine logistical and procedural elements

Global Stocktake

Slide 14

• Overall effect of NDCs

• State of GHG emissions and removals and mitigation efforts undertaken by Parties

Mitigation

• State of adaptation efforts, support, experiences and priorities

Adaptation

• Finance flows and financial support

• Technology

• Capacity-Building

Finance flows and means of Implementation and support

• Social and economic consequences of response measures (under mitigation)

• Adverting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage (under adaptation?)

Efforts on:

• Fairness consideration including equity as communicated by Parties in their NDCs

Inputs on equity

Global Stocktake themes

Global Stocktake timeline

2020 2021 2022 2023

SB52 SB54COP27/CMA4

SB56COP28/CMA5

SB58COP29/CMA6

GST Information collection and preparation

Synthesis reports (+addenda): sec. – guided by GST Co-Facilitators (4), Const. bodies (10), Relevant International & regional orgs, NPS …

webinars

GST Consideration

of Outputs

High level

event(s)

Summary report

COP26/CMA3?

IPCC AR6 (2021) WG I (Apr.?) WG II (Oct.?) WGIII (Jul.?)

IPCC AR6 (2022)

SYR (Apr. ?)

- Update info sources (SBSTA)

- Guiding questions (SB Chairs)

Guiding questions (SB Chairs)

Guiding questions(SB Chairs)

Constituted Bodies/Secretariat to:- Prepare synthesis report in area of expertise- Organize webinar (methodologies + assumptions)- Participate in technical dialogue- Support development of guiding questions

TD1 TD2 TD3GST Technical Assessment

• Establish an ad hoc coordination group on systematic observation and collective progress to develop the report (supported by the UNFCCC secretariat)

• Develop a structured work programme to better enable support by the systematic observation community for Parties and the GST.

• Provide from this work a consolidated contribution of the SO community in a synthesis report to the GST(exact contents must be decided – but should respond to themes and guiding questions)Where are we, where do we want to go, how does observation help us get there?

Contribution of observation community to assess collective progress under the first GST

• Copernicus can support Party reporting - including for

• Methodological support

• GHG inventories – emissions estimates

• IPCC methodology

• Review process / Refine data

• Including as reviewers

• Support developing countries

• Copernicus can support the Global Stocktake

• On Party-level to improve accuracy / detail

• Provide advice to Constituted Bodies

• Collaborate on synthesis report at global level (GST 2023 …)

• Copernicus can support the needed integrated Systems approach for MRV and GST

• CO2 and CH4

• Other atmospheric GHGs

• AFOLU/ Biomass

• GHG Flux

• …

Moving forward with Copernicus…

Can we measure CO2 concentrations accurately enough to support Parties in reporting under the ETF?

How do we build capacity/ understanding?

(Focus at this workshop is on CO2 –but this question for Copernicus data support goes wider inc. for all GHG reporting, AFOLU, as well as adaptation, and loss and damage)

Thank you

jpost@unfccc.int