Mongolian Gazelles and Grassland Management

(a first attempt at modelling a population of Mongolian gazelle)

October 2004

Dr. Julian F. DerryInstitute of Evolutionary Biology,School of Biological Sciences,University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Labs,Kings Buildings, West Mains Rd., Edinburgh,EH9 3JT, Scotland, UK

j.derry@ed.ac.uk

October 2004

Mongolian Gazelles and Grassland Management

Contents1. What are models and how they can help

- everyday examples

- conservation examples

2. Building a Mongolian model

- components

- numbers

- scenarios

Contents1. What are models and how they can help

- everyday examples

- conservation examples

2. Building a Mongolian model

- components

- numbers

- scenarios

Weather forecasts

Film and entertainment

Medicine

Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within Hironobu Sakaguchi & Moto Sakakibara

Everyday examples #1

Everyday examples #2

Stress tests

Travel safety

Conservation examplesRoan antelope, Northern Plains, Kruger National Park, South Africa

Conservation examplesMediterranean monk seal

Contents1. What are models and how they can help

- everyday examples

- conservation examples

2. Building a Mongolian model

- components

- numbers: data

- scenarios: competition with livestock & hunting

The modelJulian Derry Andrew Illius Iain Gordon

Yikes! Hunters!

Components

Key components of the models of soil water balance, plant phenology and animal metabolism

Climate

Grass

GazelleSheep Goats

Cattle

Soil

consumption

defoliationtransp

irationrainfall

growth

evaporation

Runoff(rivers,streams)

Components

DeadLeaf

DeadStem

GreenLeaf

StoresFallenSeed

GreenStem

Seed

VEGETATION

DeadLeaf

Wood GreenLeaf

StoresFallenSeed

GreenStem

Seed

growth(kg/ha/d)

growth(kg/ha/d)

HERBIVORES

selection(kg/ha/head/d)

consumption(kg/ha/d)

defoliation(kg/ha/d)

defoliation(kg/ha/d)

rainfall(mm/d)

temperature(°C)

relativehumidity

(%)

evaporation(kg/m /d)2

solarradiation

(MJ/m /d)2

transpiration(kg/m /d)2

SOIL

DAILY CLIMATE

WOODYHERBACEOUS

DIET

cover(kg/ha)

Grids were used within each module to model spatial processes such as climatic variation, landscape topography, surface water runoff, vegetation distribution and animal movement. The flow of energy for each iteration (arrows) passed data from the climate module to the soil module where daily transpiration was predicted before being converted into growth for each vegetation type and allocation to plant parts. Selecting the maximum energy intake rates of optimal mixtures of plant parts from the range of available forage components (green), predicted on an individual basis (per head), determined a foraging pathway for each animal herd. Herd consumption was levied on the selected forage plant parts.

Numbers: climate

• Daily rainfall (mm)• Atmospheric pressure (mb)• Minimum temperature (oC)• Average temperature (oC)• Wind Speed (ms-1)

Paul Hudspeth, US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Rainfall (mm/day)

01020

3040506070

8090

100

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Hi Julian,

I notice two major greenup periods. The first once it becomes warm enough for plants to grow it seems the entire steppe initiates a sort-of green flush, areas where snow fall was deeper is greener. Then starting any time after mid June the rains begin and the steppe greens up according to where more rain falls. It stays green longer in areas where the rains came late or rained longer.

Kirk

Numbers: climate

LEE et al. (2002) Int. J. Remote Sensing, 23, 2505-2512

Hi Julian,

I notice two major greenup periods. The first once it becomes warm enough for plants to grow it seems the entire steppe initiates a sort-of green flush, areas where snow fall was deeper is greener. Then starting any time after mid June the rains begin and the steppe greens up according to where more rain falls. It stays green longer in areas where the rains came late or rained longer.

Kirk

Numbers: climate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

day of year

Gra

ss fl

ush

(kg

ha-1

)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

tem

pera

ture

(oC)

green grass

temperature

JUNE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350day of year

Gra

ss fl

ush

(kg

ha-1

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

rain

fall

(mm

)

green grass

rain

JUNE

Numbers: topography

Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod

Numbers: topography

Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod

Numbers: topography

Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod

sample: [113.5E,46N] [115.5E,48N]

300 km x 300 km9,000,000 hectares

Numbers: topography

Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod

sample: [113.5E,46N] [115.5E,48N]

300 km x 300 km9,000,000 hectares

20 x 20 grid

Numbers: topography

20 x 20 grid

Numbers: topography

20 x 20 grid

Numbers: grass

Starting distribution of grass

20 x 20 grid

Numbers: sum centres20 x 20 grid

Numbers: gazelleScientific data for the area

•850,000 gazelle (66% female)

•35 kg mature male

•180 days gestation

•single breeding pulse ~10 days in late December

•71% calf survival

•12,500 gazelle die from disease each year

•24,000 gazelle hunted each year in Choibalsan area

Social data for the area•also possible to include colloquial data for the area,

e.g., preferred hunting targets mortality sequence

Scenarios: livestock competition

Scenarios: livestock competition

Winter grounds

Scenarios: livestock competition

Summer grounds

Scenarios: livestock competition

Scenarios: hunting

NB: NO large losses to disease

[4.2,1.6,1.3]

Grassland Management #1

7 Lessons from the model...

1. Gazelle and livestock can co-exist, if the livestock herds are kept small.

2. Gazelle are least in competition with animals much larger than themselves - they feed on different plants and parts of plants.

3. Gazelle need to be able to find enough food to eat, especially in Winter. If where they need to go is blocked by railroads, roads, fences, etc., then this will limit their chances of surviving the Winter.

Grassland Management #24. Summer grounds are specialized areas that need to be protected because gazelles are choosing to go there because of the food that is there, particularly when they are calving.

5. Hunting is the major threat to survival of the gazelle.

6. Hunting is estimated to be about 4% at present, (but it is probably more) .

7. The gazelles will go into decline when hunting is killing 10% of the gazelle numbers, IF THERE ARE NO OTHER LARGE LOSSES TO DROUGHT AND DISEASE.